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At least 235 records · Page 13

Climate Limits Across Space and Time on European Forest Structure

The impact climate has on forests has been extensively studied. However, the large scale effect climate has on forest structures, such as average diameters, heights and basal area are understudied in a spatially explicit manner. The limits, tipping points and thresholds that climate places on forest structures dictate the services a forest may provide, the vulnerability of a forest to mortality and the potential value of the timber there within. The majority of current research either investigates climate impacts on forest pools and fluxes, on a tree physiological scale or on case studies that are used to extrapolate results and potential impacts. A spatially explicit study on how climate affects forest structure over a large region would give valuable information to stakeholders who are more concerned with ecosystem services that cannot be described by pools and fluxes but require spatially explicit information - such as biodiversity, habitat suitability, and market values. In this study, we quantified the limits that climate (maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation) places on 3 forest structures, diameter at breast height, height, and basal area throughout Europe. Our results show clear climatic zones of high and low upper limits for each forest structure variable studied. We also spatially analyzed how climate restricts the potential bio-physical upper limits and creates tipping points of each forest structure variable and which climate factors are most limiting. Further, we demonstrated how the climate change has affected 8 individual forests across Europe and then the continent as a whole. We find that diameter, height and basal area are limited by climate in different ways and that areas may have high upper limits in one structure and low upper limits in another limited by different climate variables. We also found that even though individual forests may have increased their potential upper limit forest structure values, European forests as a whole have lost, on average, 5.0%, 1.7% and 6.5% in potential mean forest diameter, height and basal area, respectively.

Moreno, Adam La Salle↗

A Joint Analysis of GPS Displacement and GRACE Geopotential Data for Simultaneous Estimation of Geocenter Motion and Gravitational Field

Gravitational potential data from GRACE are being used to study mass redistribution within and between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and solid Earth. The GRACE data are made available in a reference frame with its origin at the center of mass of the Earth system (geocenter) while many other geophysical models and data sets refer to a reference frame attached to the Earth's surface. Changes in the offset between these reference frames (geocenter motion) must be accounted for when GRACE data are used to quantify surface mass changes. In this study, we developed a technique for co‐estimation of geocenter motion and gravitational potential field seamlessly from degree 1 to 90 by simultaneously inverting a set of globally‐distributed GPS displacement time series and the temporally‐varying GRACE gravity data. We found that the effect of geocenter motion was evident particularly in the GPS time series of horizontal displacements. Our estimates of geocenter motion are most consistent with the Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) results within 1 mm in X and Z components and a submillimeter in Y component, when compared to monthly variability averaged over the period of 2003–2016. The overall magnitude of the degree‐1 (l = 1) surface mass load is estimated to be ~3 cm in equivalent water height annually migrating south‐westward from Europe (December–January) to the South Pacific (June–July). Our results also show that dense GPS network data improve water storage recovery in major river basins in the United States and Europe by contributing significantly to the recovery of higher‐degree (l ≥ ~20) geopotential coefficients.

Razeghi, Mahdiyeh↗

Near 40 Years MERRA-2 Data at NASA GES DISC -Opportunity and Challenge to Support Extremes Study

To the end of 2019, 40 years NASA climate reanalysis data sets from the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) will be available at NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). MERRA-2 consists atmosphere, land, and ocean data, which may be used for the studies ranging from the short scale weather events to the large scale decadal vulnerabilities. The hourly products, such as precipitation, soil moisture, temperature, and aerosols etc., have been used widely to study extreme events.In supporting users from broad communities, GES DISC have developed various data access services, including subsetter for downloading only data of interest with preferred format; OPeNDAP - for machine-to-machine data access; and Giovanni- for online visualization and analysis, etc. A big challenge for extreme study is to downloading and processing long-term hourly or daily data. The data downloading performance is not very satisfied by many users with current services and the native archived data structure. Late June 2019, many people in Europe had experienced extreme heat waves. The temperatures in several countries exceeded 40°C (104°F). For example, MERRA-2 shows that the near surface daily maximum temperature of June 28 2019 over Marseille, a city in southern France, reached 41.1 °C (106°F), which is the record breaking temperature in the last 40 years. GES DISC is working together with domain science experts to improve the performance of long time series access, making analysis ready data sets in supporting application researches, such as extreme study. In this presentation, using Europe heat wave as an example, we will show prototype of the in developing service for finding extremes from near 40 years MERRA-2 data at a given location. MERRA-2 data can be accessed from NASA GES DISC(https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ ) by search keyword "MERRA-2".

Shen, Suhung↗

Local and Remote Mean and Extreme Temperature Response to Regional Aerosol Emissions Reductions

The climatic implications of regional aerosol and precursor emissions reductions implemented to protect human health are poorly understood. We investigate the mean and extreme temperature response to regional changes in aerosol emissions using three coupled chemistry–climate models: NOAA GFDL CM3, NCAR CESM1, and NASA GISS-E2. Our approach contrasts a long present-day control simulation from each model (up to 400 years with perpetual year 2000 or 2005 emissions) with 14 individual aerosol emissions perturbation simulations (160–240 years each). We perturb emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and/or carbonaceous aerosol within six world regions and assess the statistical significance of mean and extreme temperature responses relative to internal variability determined by the control simulation and across the models. In all models, the global mean surface temperature response (perturbation minus control) to SO2 and/or carbonaceous aerosol is mostly positive (warming) and statistically significant and ranges from +0.17 K (Europe SO2) to -0.06 K (US BC). The warming response to SO2 reductions is strongest in the US and Europe perturbation simulations, both globally and regionally, with Arctic warming up to 1 K due to a removal of European anthropogenic SO2 emissions alone; however, even emissions from regions remote to the Arctic, such as SO2 from India, significantly warm the Arctic by up to 0.5 K. Arctic warming is the most robust response across each model and several aerosol emissions perturbations. The temperature response in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes is most sensitive to emissions perturbations within that region. In the tropics, however, the temperature response to emissions perturbations is roughly the same in magnitude as emissions perturbations either within or outside of the tropics. We find that climate sensitivity to regional aerosol perturbations ranges from 0.5 to 1.0 K (W m(exp -2))(exp -1) depending on the region and aerosol composition and is larger than the climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 in two of three models. We update previous estimates of regional temperature potential (RTP), a metric for estimating the regional temperature responses to a regional emissions perturbation that can facilitate assessment of climate impacts with integrated assessment models without requiring computationally demanding coupled climate model simulations. These calculations indicate a robust regional response to aerosol forcing within the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, regardless of where the aerosol forcing is located longitudinally. We show that regional aerosol perturbations can significantly increase extreme temperatures on the regional scale. Except in the Arctic in the summer, extreme temperature responses largely mirror mean temperature responses to regional aerosol perturbations through a shift of the temperature distributions and are mostly dominated by local rather than remote aerosol forcing.

Westervelt, Daniel M.↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-21193-DND

Researchers at NASA Langley Research Center have been developing an automated pattern recognition algorithm to identify overshooting convective cloud tops (OTs) in support of the GOES-R satellite program. This algorithm identify regions of overshooting at the individual 1-4 km geostationary satellite pixel scale using visible (during daytime only) and infrared channel imagery and numerical weather analysis data. The algorithm has been developed based upon analysis of 0.25-1 km spatial resolution Aqua MODIS imagery, using a database of over 2000 manually identified OT features throughout the world in storms with varying intensity and morphology. The OT database includes storms ranging from small, warm topped cells in Alaska and Mongolia, tornadic supercells over the U.S. Central Plains and Europe, large tropical mesoscale convective systems, and overshooting in the eyewalls and spiral bands of category 5 tropical cyclones. This database is available for use by the research community. The algorithm is designed to operate on data from any current and historical satellite imager, allowing for development of a highly accurate global OT detection climatology that extends back into the 1990's at up to a 15-30 min temporal resolution throughout the diurnal cycle. As members of the McIDAS Users Group, NASA LaRC has immediate access to the full global archive of geostationary imager data which would allows rapid development of OT climatologies and short-term databases. This type of capability has never been available within the weather and climate research community. Regional geostationary OT databases have been already developed over CONUS during SEAC4RS, for 18-years over the Eastern U.S., and for 5-10 years over Australia, Europe, Southeast Asia, and East Africa among many other regions. Some of these datasets are being used by climate researchers and private industry to examine UTLS-penetrating storm spatial distributions and their temporal variability, in addition to weather hazards associated with these storms at unprecedented spatial detail. This presentation will describe the OT pattern recognition algorithm and highlight recent product applications.

Kristopher Bedka↗

Hail Storm Risk Assessment Using Space-Borne Remote Sensing Observations and Reanalyses

Much of the world is impacted by severe thunderstorms, but whether they become disasters depends upon resilience--our capacity to prepare, mitigate, respond, and recover. Hail is the costliest severe weather hazard for the insurance industry, generating ~70% of severe convective storm losses due to damage to assets such as homes, businesses, agriculture, and infrastructure. Most insurance companies do not reserve enough capital to cover catastrophes, so they acquire reinsurance. The reinsurance industry uses catastrophe models (CatModels) to statistically estimate risk to an insurer’s portfolio. Hail CatModels are developed with climatologies that define hailstorm frequency and severity. Hail-prone areas can be defined using hail reports from trained spotters, the media, and the general public. Extremely severe hail (2+ inch diameter) occurs nearly every day across the world. Weather radars can detect hail because hailstones strongly reflect microwave signals that they emit. However, hail climatologies are difficult to derive because hail covers small areas and there are neither hail reporting mechanisms (e.g. website or mobile app) nor radar networks in most places outside the US and Europe. This lack of ground truth on severe hail puts society and economies at risk. Hail is generated within storms by strong updrafts. These updrafts exhibit unique signatures in NASA and other agency satellite observations, offering new opportunities for hailstorm analysis. Geostationary (GEO) visible and infrared imagery has been collected for ~15-25 years across the world (region dependent) and methods have been developed at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to detect hailstorm updrafts using GEO imagery. Climatological GEO updraft data has been used by Willis Towers Watson (WTW), a leader in catastrophe risk assessment for the insurance industry, and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology to develop CatModels over Europe and Australia. Hail can also be inferred with passive microwave imagery collected by low-Earth-orbiting sensors such as the GPM GMI, TRMM TMI, AMSR-E, AMSR-2, SSM/I, and SSMIS over the last 20+ years using methods developed at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Hailstorms generate enhanced lightning flash rates that can be tracked using new GOES-R series GEO Lightning Mapping (GLM) imagery. Atmospheric reanalyses can be used to define favorable hailstorm environments for combination with the satellite-based storm detections. This presentation will describe a framework for developing continental to global hail climatologies and CatModels based on NASA satellite data and capabilities. This is a collaboration between LaRC and MSFC, WTW, and partners in Brazil, Argentina, and South Africa. This project seeks to mitigate hail disasters by aiding development of new satellite-based severe storm nowcasting tools by regional partners and developing climatologies to improve societal understanding of hail frequency. GEOO visible and infrared metrics of storm intensity, environmental conditions based on reanalyses, spotter hail reports and radar MESH observations are intercompared to quantify the detectability of hailstorms, and our ability to discriminate hailstorms from other severe storms. We are also maturing methods using land surface imaging satellite data (e.g. MODIS, Landsat, Sentinel 1 and 2) to identify hail damage to agriculture. Work with WTW will improve socioeconomic resilience through development of new CatModels. Southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Argentina feature some of the most intense thunderstorms on Earth. South America and South Africa are developing insurance markets of interest to WTW clients, and is similar to other regions routinely impacted by hail that do not have comprehensive hail reporting or radars to assess hailstorm frequency. Project datasets will be made available via online GIS-enabled tools developed at the LaRC Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) which will visualize data and provide it in multiple formats for use in a wide range of open source and commercial tools.

Kristopher Michael Bedka↗

A Quantitative Hydroclimatic Context for the European Great Famine of 1315–1317

The European Great Famine of 1315–1317 triggered one of the worst population collapses in European history and ranks as the single worst European famine in mortality as a proportion of population. Historical records point to torrential rainfall, land saturation, crop failure, and prolonged flooding as important causes of the famine. Here we use the tree-ring based Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) to show that the average of each growing season preceding the Great Famine years (1314–1316) was the fifth wettest over Europe from 1300 to 2012 C.E. The spatial and temporal characteristics of our OWDA-estimated anomalies are in excellent agreement with available historical accounts. We also characterize a mode of European hydroclimate variability that is associated with the Great Famine, which we term the “Great Famine mode.” This mode emerges as the leading mode of European hydroclimate variability from 1300–2012 and is strongly associated with extreme wet and dry events in Europe over the last millennium.

Environmental impact↗

Impact of COVID-19 Restrictions on Atmospheric Concentrations of O3 and NO2 Across the Globe

We use a machine learning algorithm combining information from the NASA GEOS composition forecast (GEOS-CF) model and surface observations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) at more than 5,000 observation sites to assess the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on surface air quality in 46 countries. Our methodology removes the compounding impacts of meteorology, seasonality and atmospheric chemistry on air pollution, thus allowing for a quantitative estimate of the change in surface air quality following COVID-19 containment measures. Compared to GEOS-CF model predictions that do not include emission reductions related to COVID-19 restrictions, surface observations show a drop in surface NO2 of up to 60% after the implementation of lockdowns. Average NO2 concentrations between February 2020 to June 2020 were 18% lower than business as usual. The earliest and strongest declines are observed over China, followed by Europe and the US. While NO2 concentrations over China recovered within 2 months, the recovery has been slower over Europe and the US. The impact of COVID-19 restrictions on O3 is complicated by non-linear atmospheric chemistry. Locally, O3 can show a short-term increase of up to 50% as a result of the decrease in NO2, which leads to a reduction in night time titration. However, this effect is offset by a decrease in photochemical production during the day. Our results indicate that these two competing processes resulted in a net zero change in average surface ozone during the first 5 months of the pandemic. The results also indicate that the reduced photochemical production becomes increasingly important over time. Our analysis is based on surface observations and model simulations available in near real-time, and we will present an up-to-date view of the short and medium-term impacts of COVID-19 restrictions on air quality around the world.

COVID-19↗

Relationship between circum-Arctic atmospheric wave patterns and large-scale wildfires in boreal summer

Long-term assessment of severe wildfires and associated air pollution and related climate patterns in and around the Arctic is essential for assessing healthy human life status. To examine the relationships, we analyzed the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). Our investigation based on this state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis data reveals that 13 out of the 20 months with the highest PM2.5 (corresponding to the highly elevated organic carbon in the particulate organic matter [POM] form) monthly mean mass concentration over the Arctic for 2003–2017 were all in summer (July and August), during which POM of ⩾0.5 μg/cu. m and PM2.5 were positively correlated. This correlation suggests that high PM2.5 in the Arctic is linked to large wildfire contributions and characterized by significant anticyclonic anomalies (i.e. clockwise atmospheric circulation) with anomalous surface warmth and drier conditions over Siberia and subpolar North America, in addition to Europe. A similar climate pattern was also identified through an independent regression analysis for the July and August mean data between the same atmospheric variables and the sign-reversed Scandinavian pattern index. We named this pattern of recent atmospheric circulation anomalies the circum-Arctic wave (CAW) pattern as a manifestation of eastward group-velocity propagation of stationary Rossby waves (i.e. large-scale atmospheric waves). The CAW induces concomitant development of warm anticyclonic anomalies over Europe, Siberia, Alaska, and Canada, as observed in late June 2019. Surprisingly, the extended regression analysis of the 1980–2017 period revealed that the CAW pattern was not prominent before 2003. Understanding the CAW pattern under future climate change and global warming would lead to better prediction of co-occurrences of European heatwaves and large-scale wildfires with air pollution over Siberia, Alaska, and Canada in and around the Arctic in summer.

wildfire↗

Am-241 Powered Dynamic Radioisotope Power System (DRPS) for Long Duration Lunar Rovers

For more than half a century most deep space and planetary missions have utilised Pu-238 as the isotope of choice for fuelling radioisotope thermoelectric generators and radioisotope heater units. In Europe, Am-241 based fuel has been selected and developed as part of the European Space Agency funded radioisotope power system program to provide technology solutions in the form of radioisotope thermoelectric generators and radioisotope heater units. A concurrent design study, in collaboration with NASA Glenn Research Centre, has been undertaken to design and develop a dynamic radioisotope power conversion concept that uses the European Large Heat Source. This is a 200 Wth Am-241 based heat source being developed for ESA and is an essential building block for the University of Leicester led radioisotope thermoelectric generator programme. This study aims to expand on the applications of the Am-241 based heat source within and outside Europe. The advancement in Am-241 power technologies could give rise to a suitable and sustainable addition to current Pu-238 based technologies, making the solar system and beyond more accessible for science and exploration mission.

Dynamic Radioisotope Power System↗

Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide). We calculate the global climate metrics: global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs). For the aerosols these metrics are simply time-dependent scalings of the equilibrium radiative forcings. The GTPs decrease more rapidly with time than the GWPs. The aerosol forcings and hence climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region. The metrics for ozone precursors include the effects on the methane lifetime. The impacts via methane are particularly important for the 20 yr GTPs. Emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other Northern Hemisphere regions. The analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands, and calculating absolute regional temperature-change potentials (ARTPs). The latitudinal pattern of the temperature response does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. We find that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to BC emissions from South Asia. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions.

North America↗

Cooperating in space.

NASA International Program noting official and industrial cooperation between U.S.A. and Europe

EUROPEAN SPACE PROGRAM↗

Free adjustment of a geometric global satellite network (solution MPS-7)

The basic purpose of this experiment was to compute reduced normal equations from the observational data of several different systems described below to combine them eventually with the normal equations of the Wild BC-4 observations taken in the DOD/DOC cooperative worldwide geodetic satellite program and provide station coordinates from a single least squares adjustment. The solution described is a partial one obtained without the use of the BC-4 data. The observational systems combined were the Baker-Nunn simultaneous camera observational systems combined were the Baker-Nunn simultaneous camera observations from the SAO worldwide network, the MOTS and PC-1000 optical observations in North America, miscellaneous camera observations in Europe which were included in the SAO69 solution, and, lastly, a group of optical observations where Baker-Nunn cameras observed simultaneously with MOTS and/or PC-1000 cameras in the previously mentioned group.

Mueller, I. I.↗

A detailed gravimetric geoid of North America, Eurasia, and Australia

A detailed gravimetric geoid of North America, the North Atlantic, Eurasia, and Australia computed from a combination of satellite-derived and surface 1 x 1 gravity data, is presented. Using a consistent set of parameters, this geoid is referenced to an absolute datum. The precision of this detailed geoid is + or - 2 meters in the continents but may be in the range of 5 to 7 meters in those areas where data was sparse. Comparisons of the detailed gravimetric geoid with results of Rice for the United States, Bomford and Fischer in Eurasia, and Mather in Australia are presented. Comparisons are also presented with geoid heights from satellite solutions for geocentric station coordinates in North America, the Caribbean, Europe, and Australia.

Vincent, S.↗

A global station coordinate solution based upon camera and laser data - GSFC 1973

Results for the geocentric coordinates of 72 globally distributed satellite tracking stations consisting of 58 cameras and 14 lasers are presented. The observational data for this solution consists of over 65,000 optical observations and more than 350 laser passes recorded during the National Geodetic Satellite Program, the 1968 Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales/Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO) Program, and International Satellite Geodesy Experiment Program. Dynamic methods were used. The data were analyzed with the GSFC GEM and SAO 1969 Standard Earth Gravity Models. The recent value of GM = 398600.8 cu km/sec square derived at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) gave the best results for this combination laser/optical solution. Solutions are made with the deep space solution of JPL (LS-25 solution) including results obtained at GSFC from Mariner-9 Unified B-Band tracking. Datum transformation parameters relating North America, Europe, South America, and Australia are given, enabling the positions of some 200 other tracking stations to be placed in the geocentric system.

Marsh, J. G.↗

Photographic fireball networks

Three networks for the photography of bright fireballs are now in operation; in the central United States, central Europe and western Canada. A detailed comparison is made of the parameters which describe the three networks. Although only two meteorites for which photographic orbital data are available have been recovered, the networks are contributing valuable data on fireball orbits, influx rates and problems of meteor physics.

Halliday, I.↗