Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Expansion Planning”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Hydroclimate-coupled framework for assessing power system resilience under summer drought and climate change

Extreme drought, exacerbated by climate change, increasingly threatens power system resilience, and a systematic assessment of such impacts is challenging due to the unpredictability of drought and their associated modeling complexity. Here, to address the challenge, this research develops a hydroclimate-coupled power system resilience assessment framework that enables systematic modeling of drought and climate change impacts on generation, transmission, and demand sectors. Applying the framework to the 2025 Eastern U.S. power grid — comprising 6,055 at-risk generators — under climate-induced summer drought scenarios (including SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) from 2023 to 2100, the study finds that climate-induced droughts could jeopardize the power system’s reliability to a greater extent than historical events, potentially leading to widespread load shedding. More specifically, the study reveals that under the twenty-one representative drought scenarios, the loss of load expectation (LOLE) of the grid could range from 34.77 to 91.48 days per summer. The simulations indicate that implementing resilience enhancement strategies is crucial to ensure reliable system operation, which encompasses initiatives such as demand response, upgrading open cooling systems, and transmission expansion. In all, these findings underscore the urgent need for proactive planning and investment in resilient U.S. power systems to mitigate the impacts of extreme drought events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

FERC Order No. 2222 and Considerations for Distributed Wind

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued Order No. 2222 in October 2020. The rule directs Regional Transmission Organizations and Independent System Operators (ISOs) to amend their tariffs and participation models to accommodate heterogeneous distributed energy resource (DER) aggregations in the wholesale energy markets that they operate, including capacity, energy, and ancillary service markets. The Commission issued the rule to better capture the benefits provided by DERs deployed in the United States, whose use has been expanding rapidly. The Commission defines DERs as “any resource located on the distribution system, any subsystem thereof or behind a customer meter,” including but not limited to “electric storage resources, distributed generation, demand response, energy efficiency, thermal storage, and electric vehicles and their supply equipment.” The rule aims to increase DER participation in wholesale markets by allowing the creation of DER aggregations, in which multiple DERs that are too small to meet minimum capacity requirements for wholesale markets individually would be able to participate in markets as a single unit. As of June 20, 2023, all ISOs have filed initial compliance plans and a number have begun implementation. Compliance dates range from 2024 to 2029, with Midcontinent ISO having the latest date of compliance proposed for 2029. Southwest Power Pool still has an outstanding date, having no final order yet from FERC, but a target date of the third quarter of calendar year 2025. The rule, which is technology agnostic and requires ISOs to create participation plans that accommodate different DERs, provides an opportunity for distributed wind market expansion. In addition, distributed wind can bring benefits to heterogenous DER aggregations. These benefits include resource diversity (i.e., a complementary generation profile to other types of distributed generation), its small footprint and ability to be co-located with load, and its potential to provide frequency response, voltage support, and black start services, among other ancillary services. This report provides a status update on FERC Order No. 2222, the current state of ISO compliance, and information relevant to the distributed wind industry as DER aggregators and other stakeholders expand their participation to wholesale energy markets.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

National Transmission Planning Study - Long-Term Modeling Results

The National Transmission Planning Study (NTP Study) analyzed the transformation needed to ensure the U.S. transmission system continues to reliably meet electricity demand as the power sector evolves. The study linked several long- and short-term power systems models to test numerous interregional and regional transmission buildout scenarios. The results included in this dataset are from the long-term capacity expansion modeling, completed with NREL's ReEDS model. This includes nearly 100 future transmission scenarios with a wide range of economic, reliability, and resilience conditions. The dataset includes all the results visualized in the Tableau Public site, as linked below.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scalable Energy System Expansion Under Uncertainty Using Multi-Stage Stochastic Optimization

The intermittent nature of power from renewable energy sources poses new challenges for electrical grids. This is due to the variable and uncertain nature of the power output from these resources. These features of renewable generation are becoming more relevant to energy system planning as grids reach higher penetration levels of renewable energy. In this presentation we present approaches for energy system planning based on scalable computational approaches which enable the explicit consideration of operational uncertainties in the planning process. Using multi-stage stochastic programming and the progressive hedging algorithm, we compute energy system expansion decisions on modified versions of the RTS-GMLC test system augmented with large amounts of renewable generation.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

High electrification futures: Impacts to the U.S. bulk power system

Electrification of end-use technologies could have important implications for bulk power sector planning, operations, and impacts. By combining previously-defined electrification scenarios with capacity expansion modeling, we evaluate the potential challenges and opportunities associated with electrification. Our scenario analysis reveals that electrification reduces energy consumption and air emissions from across the energy sector, and its impacts on energy system costs are modest due, in part, to the abundance of low-cost resources in the United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Representing DC-Coupled PV+Battery Hybrids in a Capacity Expansion Model

Recent technology cost and performance improvements and the federal investment tax credit (ITC) have driven growing interest in coupling solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery systems. Combining these technologies into co-located or hybridized PV+battery systems has the potential to lower costs and increase energy output relative to multiple independent systems. In this work, we provide an overview of PV+battery systems and demonstrate methods for incorporating them into NREL’s Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model. Although the methods are applied to a specific model, we anticipate that the approaches used here can be useful for informing PV+battery method development for other capacity expansion models. The implemented method relies heavily on the native representations of PV and battery technologies; therefore, the focus of this work is on capturing and parameterizing the interactions between them for a configuration in which the PV and battery technologies share a single bi-directional inverter. This work also demonstrates the impacts of including PV+battery systems in the ReEDS optimization for the conterminous United States through 2050. In particular, we perform parametric sensitivities for input assumptions that are uncertain and expected to influence PV+battery deployment levels, including (a) the cost of PV+battery systems relative to independent PV and battery systems, (b) the battery component’s qualification for the ITC, and (c) future cost trajectories for PV and battery systems. We find that PV+battery deployment could occur throughout the conterminous United States if there are cost savings associated with DC coupling PV and battery technologies. If even modest (5%) cost savings can be achieved (through a shared inverter and balance-of-system costs), then approximately one-third of utility-scale PV deployment through 2050 adopts the DC-coupled hybrid configuration, resulting in total PV+battery deployment that exceeds the magnitude of PV+battery projects in U.S. interconnection queues in 2020. If greater cost savings can be achieved through DC coupling (e.g., due to a growing amount of shared balance-of-system costs, reduced financial risk, or modularity) or more rapid cost and performance improvements are realized for PV and battery technologies, then total PV+battery deployment and the share of PV and battery deployment that adopts the hybrid configuration grows (to >50%). In all cases, growing PV+battery deployment primarily displaces independent PV and battery technologies, indicating the strong competition between the hybrid and independent configurations comprising technologies with similar performance characteristics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Synergies and trade-offs between storage, transmission, and sector coupling in high renewable energy systems

Energy storage, transmission, and sector coupling are some prominent flexibility solutions to support variable renewable energy (VRE) integration. However, investment cost uncertainties and public acceptance could hamper the deployment of these flexibility solutions. This raises questions about the development and cost-effectiveness of future energy systems, especially on how the dependence on local and cross-border solutions of flexibility would evolve if the uptake of these solutions is restricted. In this context, this paper identifies the synergies among flexibility options under restrictions on transmission expansion or increased costs of energy storage. It contributes to determining whether investments in energy storage and/or transmission expansion offer the least-cost transition and investigates the impact of sector coupling on these solutions. A long-term energy system planning and optimisation model towards 2050 is developed using the open-source energy system optimisation tool Balmorel, and a case study of the countries surrounding the Baltic Sea and the North Sea is established. Five cases with restrictions imposed on transmission expansion and higher energy storage technology costs are analysed at different levels of sector coupling. The results highlight the importance of transmission expansion at all levels of sector coupling. As the level of sector coupling increases, uncertainties around the cost of energy storage drive the least-cost pathways. Optimal investment solutions are found to have a mix of transmission and energy storage in capacity expansion at all levels of sector coupling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear's Role in the U.S. Electricity System: A Multi-Model Inter-Comparison Analysis

Multiple capacity expansion models (CEMs) for the U.S. power system represent the balance of options among generation, transmission, and storage assets that can satisfy electric loads, operating and planning reserves, and policy requirements. These models are typically set up to find the least-cost portfolio of assets that meet specified requirements, and model decisions can include both investments in new, and retirement of existing, resources. The scenarios explored by CEMs can help inform strategies for meeting future electricity and energy needs under a range of future conditions. However, projections can differ between models, sometimes dramatically, for a seemingly similar scenario. Differences in model coverage, structure, and input assumptions contribute to the range of model outcomes. Understanding what drives the biggest differences in model outputs improves model insights and provides context for interpreting results. This summary presents analysis that was performed through a forum of analysts who own, update, and apply CEMs, as well as nuclear experts from national laboratories, industry, and the research community. The following sections describe methods, results, and findings from an original, innovative inter-model comparison that provides insights into what drives the greatest differences in nuclear retirement and deployment projections across models and a range of technology, market, and policy conditions.

capacity expansion model↗
DOE OSTI2020

NLR Engage™: A Calliope Web Environment for Collaborative Energy Systems Modeling and Planning [SWR-20-16]

NLR Engage™ is a free, open-access energy system planning tool that allows multiple users/stakeholders to develop and collaborate on capacity expansion models. The tool, developed at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), provides a collaborative and easy-to-use interface built on Calliope, a multi-scale energy systems modeling framework. Visit the NLR hosted webtool at https://engage.nlr.gov/en/login/?next=/en/

Harris, Tom↗
DOE OSTI2025

Innovative Pathways to Net Zero Emissions: Subnational Strategies for Distributed Solar Deployment to Improve Grid Quality and Reduce Energy Costs in Argentina

Through Net Zero World, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the National Energy Secretariat of Argentina, La Pampa's Energy and Mining Secretariat, Pampetrol, and the Administracion Provincial de Energia de La Pampa (APELP) conducted an integrated analysis of the power system of the La Pampa province in Argentina. The study assessed the impact that solar and battery energy storage systems could have on the region grid's reliability and electricity costs, providing insights into long-term decarbonization strategies across Argentina. The analysis demonstrated that these systems are expected not only to help with decarbonization efforts but also to bolster grid resiliency, reduce line losses, and improve voltage regulation while lowering electricity costs. The paper offers a replicable framework for similar studies across other Argentine provinces, which could inform a national grid reliability plan and promote regional coordination. Such coordination will play a key role in supporting a nationwide clean energy transition as Argentina increases its share of renewable energy. By coordinating subnational energy plans with national strategies, Argentina can secure a resilient clean energy future, leveraging the substantial renewable resources available across its provinces.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Update on Nuclear Energy Projects and Plans in Ukraine (Meeting Report)

Following the 1986 disastrous accident at Chernobyl, gaining independence following the fall of the former Soviet Union, two revolutions, and on-going Russian intervention, Ukrainea is seeking to expand its use of commercial nuclear energy and to further reduce its dependence on Russia for energy. Nuclear energy in Ukraine has made a significant contribution toward achieving sustainable development and social goals. Ukraine is very vulnerable to the effects of climate change and nuclear is a cornerstone of the country’s effort to combat the effects. With broad support from the U.S. government, Ukraine is cooperating with the U.S. on fresh nuclear fuel supply, civilian nuclear security, outage optimization, spent fuel storage, and future nuclear technology. And is looking to tap U.S. expertise on plant management, and electric grid operations and expansion. NEIc hosted this virtual event to provide an update on nuclear energy projects and plans in Ukraine. Featured speakers included Yaroslav Demchenkov, Deputy Minister of Energy, Taras Kachka, Deputy Minister – Trade Representative, Petro Kotin, CEO, Energoatom,d and Ann K. Ganzer, Senior Bureau Official, Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation, U.S. Dept. of State. Maria Korsnick, NEI CEO, moderated the discussion. About forty individuals attended representing the Ukraine and U.S. governments, and U.S. suppliers.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution

Electrification of end-use technologies could have important implications for bulk power sector planning, operations, and impacts. By combining previously-defined electrification scenarios with capacity expansion modeling, we evaluate the potential challenges and opportunities associated with electrification. Our scenario analysis reveals that electrification reduces energy consumption and air emissions from across the energy sector, and its impacts on energy system costs are modest due, in part, to the abundance of low-cost resources in the United States.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Insights from NREL’s Electrification Futures and LA100 Studies

Electrification of end-use technologies could have important implications for bulk power sector planning, operations, and impacts. By combining previously-defined electrification scenarios with capacity expansion modeling, we evaluate the potential challenges and opportunities associated with electrification. Our scenario analysis reveals that electrification reduces energy consumption and air emissions from across the energy sector, and its impacts on energy system costs are modest due, in part, to the abundance of low-cost resources in the United States.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Navigating Integration: Key Challenges for Data Centers, Nuclear Stakeholders, and Utility Operators

The rapid expansion of data centers, driven by the exponential growth in data-processing and storage needs, presents significant challenges and opportunities for various stakeholders, including data center developers, nuclear energy providers, and utility companies. Data centers are projected to consume 6.7–12% of United States (U.S.) electricity by 2028, driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud-computing demands. Nuclear energy offers reliability and dispatchable baseload power, but data centers need power now while nuclear still needs time to address siting, fast power ramping, and regulatory hurdles. Utilities must keep pace with the unprecedented acceleration of large load interconnection requests and urgently adapt to high-density loads while maintaining grid stability, reliability, and accelerating interconnection timelines. This report dives into these challenges and proposes key collaboration strategies to streamline data center integration that aligns with recent federal initiatives like America’s AI Action Plan and related executive orders that emphasize the importance of data center growth, nuclear energy expansion, and maintaining a competitive edge in the global AI race.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Risk Assessment and Management Workflow—An Example of the Southwest Regional Partnership

This paper summarizes the risk assessment and management workflow developed and applied to the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) Phase III Demonstration Project. The risk assessment and management workflow consists of six primary tasks, including management planning, identification, qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, response planning, and monitoring. Within the workflow, the SWP assembled and iteratively updated a risk registry that identifies risks for all major activities of the project. Risk elements were ranked with respect to the potential impact to the project and the likelihood of occurrence. Both qualitative and quantitative risk analyses were performed. To graphically depict the interactions among risk elements and help building risk scenarios, process influence diagrams were used to represent the interactions. The SWP employed quantitative methods of risk analysis including Response Surface Method (RSM), Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE), and the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) toolset. The SWP also developed risk response planning and performed risk control and monitoring to prevent the risks from affecting the project and ensure the effectiveness of risk management. As part of risk control and monitoring, existing and new risks have been tracked and the response plan was subsequently evaluated. Findings and lessons learned from the SWP’s risk assessment and management efforts will provide valuable information for other commercial geological CO2 storage projects.

Lee, Si-Yong↗
DOE OSTI2026

Public water supply infrastructure extensification and diversification in surface waters is insufficient to meet future demands in Texas

The data were developed to evaluate the capacity of existing and potential new surface water supply infrastructure to meet projected public water demands across districts in Texas under multiple future socioeconomic and climate scenarios. The database integrates hydrologic, water quality, infrastructure, energy, cost, demographic, and demand-projection information for candidate surface water supply locations. Candidate sites include stream reaches, waterbodies, reservoir surplus locations, and potential new reservoir sites. Water availability is characterized using historical and projected flow conditions, while site suitability is evaluated using five indicators: Water Availability Index (WAI), Water Quality Index (WQI), Energy Requirement Index (ERI), Water Treatment Cost (WTC), and Water Infrastructure Cost (WIC). The datasets include statewide candidate-site information, district-level demand projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), runoff-based allocation constraints, climate-stress metrics, and optimization outputs evaluating alternative infrastructure planning strategies. Optimization results compare Business-as-Usual (BAU) and All Surface Water (AllSW) demand-management approaches under both scaled and fixed cost-cap strategies. Associated validation datasets provide district-level feasibility assessments, infrastructure selection outcomes, cost-cap utilization, demand satisfaction metrics, and constraint diagnostics. Additional datasets quantify projected changes in storage and flow conditions as well as water availability stress for both existing and newly selected intake locations under the SSP5 scenario for mid-century and late-century climate conditions. Together, these datasets support assessment of the extent to which surface-water infrastructure expansion and diversification strategies can satisfy future public water demands while accounting for hydrologic, economic, and planning constraints across Texas. Dataset(s) Description Dataset_preoptimization.xlsx Comprehensive pre-optimization dataset containing candidate water-supply sites and associated hydrologic, water-quality, infrastructure, climate, demographic, runoff, and demand-projection variables used as inputs to the optimization analyses. Includes variable descriptions and the full statewide candidate-site database. District_level_site_selection.zip - Compressed archive containing all SSP-specific district-level optimization result files MESIO_ssp1_results.xlsx District-level site selection results for SSP1 (MESIO). Includes variable descriptions, BAU and AllSW site-selection results under scaled and fixed cost strategies, and district-level validation diagnostics. MESID_ssp2_results.xlsx District-level site selection results for SSP2 (MESID). Includes variable descriptions, BAU and AllSW site-selection results under scaled and fixed cost strategies, and district-level validation diagnostics. LCMRD_ssp3_results.xlsx District-level site selection results for SSP3 (LCMRD). Includes variable descriptions, BAU and AllSW site-selection results under scaled and fixed cost strategies, and district-level validation diagnostics. IRDev-Low_ssp4l_results.xlsx District-level site selection results for SSP4-Low (IRDev-Low). Includes variable descriptions, BAU and AllSW site-selection results under scaled and fixed cost strategies, and district-level validation diagnostics. IRDev-High_ssp4h_results.xlsx District-level site selection results for SSP4-High (IRDev-High). Includes variable descriptions, BAU and AllSW site-selection results under scaled and fixed cost strategies, and district-level validation diagnostics. RSIM_ssp5_results.xlsx District-level site selection results for SSP5 (RSIM). Includes variable descriptions, BAU and AllSW site-selection results under scaled and fixed cost strategies, and district-level validation diagnostics. tx_hydrological_stress.xlsx Hydrological stress dataset for existing and newly selected intake locations. Includes projected mid-century and late-century changes, gain/loss classifications, planning strategy information, and accompanying variable descriptions. Also includes water-stress metrics derived from historical and projected low-flow conditions.

Okoye, Perpetua I. (ORCID:0000000215545033)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decarbonization scenarios of the U.S. Electricity system and their costs

Decarbonizing the electricity system to zero-carbon emission is crucial for climate change mitigation. Previous studies have shown that such a transition in the United States (U.S.) may lead to higher system cost compared to a business-as-usual case, but it is not well-known how the cost of electricity generation varies at sub-regional level under the transition, and studies have rarely evaluated the trade-off between the cost and avoided climate damages, as well as the potential roles of negative emission technologies (NETs) in the electricity decarbonization. In this work, we present a regionally resolved national model to quantify the cost of decarbonizing the U.S. electricity system under a set of possible scenarios. The results show that, compared to the reference scenario without a decarbonization policy, reaching zero CO 2 emission by 2050 would incur, depending on the scenarios, 335-494 billion USD additional cost to the U.S. electric power sector during 2020-2050. The regional costs of electricity generation ranges from 2.4 to 4.7 cent/kWh, largely due to the generation profiles and renewable resources availability of those regions. The additional costs can be translated to an average CO 2 abatement cost of 29-59 USD/metric ton CO 2 (with 2%-7% discount rates), which are comparable to the social cost of carbon in the literature at around 4% discount rate. The results also show that the cost of mitigating the last few percent CO 2 emission from the U.S. electricity system may exceed the costs of NETs, indicating an opportunity for NETs to contribute to electricity decarbonization.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗