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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1991

An Evaluation of the Iosipescu Specimen for Composite Materials Shear Property Measurement

A detailed evaluation of the suitability of the Iosipescu specimen tested in the modified Wyoming fixture is presented. An experimental investigation using conventional strain gage instrumentation and moire interferometry is performed. A finite element analysis of the Iosipescu shear test for unidirectional and cross-ply composites is used to assess the uniformity of the shear stress field in the vicinity of the notch, and demonstrate the effect of the nonuniform stress field upon the strain gage measurements used for the determination of composite shear moduli. From the test results for graphite-epoxy laminates, it is shown that the proximity of the load introduction point to the test section greatly influences the individual gage readings for certain fiber orientations but the effect upon shear modulus measurement is relatively unimportant. A numerical study of the load contact effect shows the sensitivity of some fiber configurations to the specimen/fixture contact mechanism and may account for the variations in the measured shear moduli. A comparison of the strain gage readings from one surface of a specimen with corresponding data from moire interferometry on the opposite face documented an extreme sensitivity of some fiber orientations to eccentric loading which induced twisting and yielded spurious shear stress-strain curves. In the numerical analysis, it is shown that the Iosipescu specimens for different fiber orientations have to be modeled differently in order to closely approximate the true loading conditions. Correction factors are needed to allow for the nonuniformity of the strain field and the use of the average shear stress in the shear modulus evaluation. The correction factors, which are determined for the region occupied by the strain gage rosette, are found to be dependent upon the material orthotropic ratio and the finite element models. Based upon the experimental and numerical results, recommendations for improving the reliability and accuracy of the shear modulus values are made, and the implications for shear strength measurement discussed. Further application of the Iosipescu shear test to woven fabric composites is presented. The limitations of the traditional strain gage instrumentation on the satin weave and high tow plain weave fabrics is discussed. Test results of a epoxy based aluminum particulate composite is also presented. A modification of the Iosipescu specimen is proposed and investigated experimentally and numerically. It is shown that the proposed new specimen design provides a more uniform shear stress field in the test section and greatly reduces the normal and shear stress concentrations in the vicinity of the notches. While the fabrication and the material cost of the proposed specimen is tremendously reduced, it is shown the accuracy of the shear modulus measurement is not sacrificed.

Ho, Henjen↗
NASA NTRS2018

Flash Drought as Captured by MERRA-2: Disentangling the Contributions of Precipitation Deficit and Excess Energy

Flash droughts uncharacteristically rapid dryings of the land system are naturally associated with extreme precipitation deficits. Such precipitation deficits, however, do not tell the whole story. Land surface drying can be exacerbated by anomalously high evapotranspiration (ET) rates driven, for example, by anomalously high temperatures (e.g., during heatwaves) and/or anomalously high incoming radiation (e.g., from reduced cloudiness). In this study the relative contributions of precipitation and ET anomalies to flash drought generation are quantified through the analysis of diagnostic fields contained within the MERRA-2 reanalysis product. Unique to the overall approach is the explicit treatment of soil moisture impacts on ET an ET anomaly that is negative relative to the local long-term climatological mean is still considered positive in terms of its contribution to a flash drought, if it is high for the concurrent value of soil moisture. Maps produced in the analysis show the fraction of flash drought production stemming specifically from ET anomalies and the degree to which these ET anomalies are related to temperature and radiation anomalies. ET is found to have a large impact, for example, on flash drought production in the east-central US and in parts of Russia known from past studies to be prone to heatwave-related drought.

Koster, Randal↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of DESI × DES using the Lagrangian effective theory of LSS

In this work we use Lagrangian perturbation theory to analyze the harmonic space galaxy clustering signal of the Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS) and luminous red galaxies (LRGs) targeted by the dark energy spectroscopic instrument (DESI), combined with the galaxy-galaxy lensing signal measured around these galaxies using Dark Energy Survey Year 3 source galaxies. The BGS and LRG galaxies are extremely well characterized by DESI spectroscopy and, as a result, lens galaxy redshift uncertainty and photometric systematics contribute negligibly to the error budget of our “2 × 2-point” analysis. On the modeling side, this work represents the first application of the SPINOSAURUS code, implementing an effective field theory model for galaxy intrinsic alignments, and we additionally introduce a new scheme ( MAIAR ) for marginalizing over the large uncertainties in the redshift evolution of the intrinsic alignment signal. Furthermore, this is the first application of a hybrid effective field theory model for galaxy bias based on the A emulus 𝜈 simulations. Our main result is a measurement of the amplitude of the lensing signal, 𝑆 8 = 𝜎 8 ⁢(Ω 𝑚 /0.3) 0.5 = 0.85⁢0$^{+0.042}_{−0.050}$, consistent with values of this parameter derived from the primary cosmic microwave background. This constraint is artificially improved by a factor of 51% if we assume a more standard, but restrictive parametrization for the redshift evolution and sample dependence of the intrinsic alignment signal, and 63% if we additionally assume the nonlinear alignment model. Furthermore, we show that when fixing the cosmological model to the best-fit values from Planck PR4 there is > 5⁢𝜎 evidence for a deviation of the evolution of the intrinsic alignment signal from the functional form that is usually assumed in cosmic shear and galaxy-galaxy lensing studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1985

Confined turbulent swirling recirculating flow predictions

The capability and the accuracy of the STARPIC computer code in predicting confined turbulent swirling recirculating flows is presented. Inlet flow boundary conditions were demonstrated to be extremely important in simulating a flowfield via numerical calculations. The degree of swirl strength and expansion ratio have strong effects on the characteristics of swirling flow. In a nonswirling flow, a large corner recirculation zone exists in the flowfield with an expansion ratio greater than one. However, as the degree of inlet swirl increases, the size of this zone decreases and a central recirculation zone appears near the inlet. Generally, the size of the central zone increased with swirl strength and expansion ratio. Neither the standard k-epsilon turbulence mode nor its previous extensions show effective capability for predicting confined turbulent swirling recirculating flows. However, either reduced optimum values of three parameters in the mode or the empirical C sub mu formulation obtained via careful analysis of available turbulence measurements, can provide more acceptable accuracy in the prediction of these swirling flows.

Abujelala, M. T.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Control of an orbiting flexible square platform in the presence of solar radiation

An analysis is made of the dynamics of a thin, homogeneous, flexible square plate exposed to solar radiation disturbance. It is shown that only the first three flexible modes of the plate generate a first order net moment about the center of mass and that the solar radiation pressure does not influence the flexible modes of the plate for small-amplitude vibrations. In the absence of control, for a symmetrical homogeneous square platform, the solar radiation induces a steady angular drift about one of the body principal axes. For extremely flexible platforms, nominally oriented in the local horizontal plane, appreciable rigid modal amplitudes can be induced due to solar radiation, even in the presence of both active and passive control. Optimal control law and feedback gain values are obtained using linear quadratic Gaussian methods.

Bainum, P. M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Mexican Drought Atlas: Tree-Ring Reconstructions of the Soil Moisture Balance During the Late Pre-Hispanic, Colonial, and Modern Eras

Mexico has suffered a long history and prehistory of severe sustained drought. Drought over Mexico is modulated by ocean-atmospheric variability in the Atlantic and Pacific, raising the possibility for long-range seasonal climate forecasting, which could help mediate the economic and social impacts of future dry spells. The instrumental record of Mexican climate is very limited before 1920, but tree-ring chronologies developed from old-growth forests in Mexico can provide an excellent proxy representation of the spatial pattern and intensity of past moisture regimes useful for the analysis of climate dynamics and climate impacts. The Mexican Drought Atlas (MXDA) has been developed from an extensive network of 252 climate sensitive tree-ring chronologies in and near Mexico. The MXDA reconstructions extend from 1400 CE-2012 and were calibrated with the instrumental summer (JJA) self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) on a 0.5deg latitude/longitude grid extending over land areas from 14 to 34degN and 75-120degW using Ensemble Point-by-Point Regression (EPPR) for the 1944-1984 period. The grid point reconstructions were validated for the period 1920-1943 against instrumental gridded scPDSI values based on the fewer weather station observations available during that interval. The MXDA provides a new spatial perspective on the historical impacts of moisture extremes over Mexico during the past 600-years, including the Aztec Drought of One Rabbit in 1454, the drought of El Ano de Hambre in 1785-1786, and the drought that preceded the Mexican Revolution of 1909-1910. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important ocean-atmospheric forcing of moisture variability detected with the MXDA. In fact, the reconstructions suggest that the strongest central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) teleconnection to the soil moisture balance over North America may reside in northern Mexico. This ENSO signal has stronger and more time-stable correlations than computed for either the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The extended Multivariate ENSO Index is most highly correlated with reconstructed scPDSI over northern Mexico, where warm events favor moist conditions during the winter, spring, and early summer. This ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico has been strong over the past 150 years, but it has been comparatively weak and non-stationary in the MXDA over central and southern Mexico where eastern tropical Pacific and Caribbean/tropical Atlantic SSTs seem to be more important. The ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico is weaker in the available instrumental PDSI, but analyses based on the millennium climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model suggest that the moisture balance during the winter, spring, and early summer over northern Mexico may indeed be particularly sensitive to ENSO forcing. Nationwide drought is predicted to become more common with anthropogenic climate change, but the MXDA reconstructions indicate that intense "All Mexico" droughts have been rare over the past 600 years and their frequency does not appear to have increased substantially in recent decades.

El Nino↗
NASA NTRS2016

Global Statistical Maps of Extreme-Event Magnetic Observatory 1 Min First Differences in Horizontal Intensity

Analysis is made of the long-term statistics of three different measures of ground level, storm time geomagnetic activity: instantaneous 1 min first differences in horizontal intensity (delta)Bh, the root-mean-square of 10 consecutive 1 min differences S, and the ramp change R over 10 min. Geomagnetic latitude maps of the cumulative exceedances of these three quantities are constructed, giving the threshold(nTmin) for which activity within a 24 h period can be expected to occur once per year, decade, and century. Specifically, at geomagnetic 55deg, we estimate once-per-century (delta)Bh, S, and R exceedances and a site-to-site,proportional, 1 standard deviation range [1(sigma), lower and upper] to be, respectively, 1000, [690, 1450]; 500,[350, 720]; and 200, [140, 280] nTmin. At 40deg, we estimate once-per-century (delta)Bh, S, and R exceedances and1(sigma) values to be 200, [140, 290]; 100, [70, 140]; and 40, [30, 60] nTmin.

Love, Jeffrey J.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Growth of deuterium supersaturated surface layer with increasing ion flux and fluence in plasma-exposed tungsten

Deuterium supersaturated surface layer (DSSL) in tungsten, a few nm thick layer exhibiting extremely high deuterium content (> 5%), has been studied as a function of deuterium plasma ion flux and fluence. Tungsten samples were exposed at 400 K and deuterium ion energy of ∼ 60 eV. The deuterium ion flux spanned over an order of magnitude, being 7.3 × 10 20 , 4.2 × 10 21 , and 3.8 × 10 22 D/m 2 . The fluence ranged from 3.4 × 1024 to 3.4 × 1025 D/m2. The samples and their deuterium content were analyzed by nuclear reaction analysis (NRA), scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM), and thermal desorption spectroscopy (TDS). The largest thickness of DSSL was found to be around 10.5 nm and was observed in the case of the highest exposure flux and fluence, whereas the layer was only about 3.8 nm thick in the case of the lowest value of the two parameters. The thickness of the DSSL was found to monotonically increase with both deuterium flux and fluence. Finally, similar to the thickness, the estimated D concentration seems to follow the same trend, increasing from the lowest value of around 3 at.% to the highest value of around 5 at.%.

Deuterium↗
NASA NTRS1991

IRAS observations of classical novae. II - Modeling the detections

The analysis of IRAS data on 64 classical novae extracted since an initial study of 41 novae (Harrison and Gehrz, 1988) is reported, and it is concluded that 45 of the 105 novae investigated were detected by IRAS. A model is presented that compares the IRAS detections of novae with predictions of the strength of the far-infrared forbidden line emission from the gaseous ejecta. The distances are known for 23 of the 45 detected novae so that this sample of 23 can be used to compare the fluxes observed at earth with fluxes predicted by the line emission model. The fluxes from 9 of these 23 novae can be explained by line emission given relatively conservative assumptions about the physical conditions in their shells. Accepting more extreme values for these parameters makes it possible to attribute three more detections to possible line emission. There are 11 novae whose IRAS detections remain difficult to explain, even when dust emission and free-free emission are considered as alternatives to line emission.

Harrison, T. E.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Determining Surface Roughness in Urban Areas Using Lidar Data

An automated procedure has been developed to derive relevant factors, which can increase the ability to produce objective, repeatable methods for determining aerodynamic surface roughness. Aerodynamic surface roughness is used for many applications, like atmospheric dispersive models and wind-damage models. For this technique, existing lidar data was used that was originally collected for terrain analysis, and demonstrated that surface roughness values can be automatically derived, and then subsequently utilized in disaster-management and homeland security models. The developed lidar-processing algorithm effectively distinguishes buildings from trees and characterizes their size, density, orientation, and spacing (see figure); all of these variables are parameters that are required to calculate the estimated surface roughness for a specified area. By using this algorithm, aerodynamic surface roughness values in urban areas can then be extracted automatically. The user can also adjust the algorithm for local conditions and lidar characteristics, like summer/winter vegetation and dense/sparse lidar point spacing. Additionally, the user can also survey variations in surface roughness that occurs due to wind direction; for example, during a hurricane, when wind direction can change dramatically, this variable can be extremely significant. In its current state, the algorithm calculates an estimated surface roughness for a square kilometer area; techniques using the lidar data to calculate the surface roughness for a point, whereby only roughness elements that are upstream from the point of interest are used and the wind direction is a vital concern, are being investigated. This technological advancement will improve the reliability and accuracy of models that use and incorporate surface roughness.

Holland, Donald↗
NASA NTRS1973

Airborne Laser Polar Nephelometer

A polar nephelometer has been developed at NCAR to measure the angular variation of the intensity of light scattered by air molecules and particles. The system has been designed for airborne measurements using outside air ducted through a 5-cm diameter airflow tube; the sample volume is that which is common to the intersection of a collimated source beam and the detector field of view within the airflow tube. The source is a linearly polarized helium-neon laser beam. The optical system defines a collimated field-of-view (0.5deg half-angle) through a series of diaphragms located behind a I72-mm focal length objective lens. A photomultiplier tube is located immediately behind an aperture in the focal plane of the objective lens. The laser beam is mechanically chopped (on-off) at a rate of 5 Hz; a two-channel pulse counter, synchronized to the laser output, measures the photomultiplier pulse rate with the light beam both on and off. The difference in these measured pulse rates is directly proportional to the intensity of the scattered light from the volume common to the intersection of the laser beam and the detector field-of-view. Measurements can be made at scattering angles from 15deg to 165deg with reference to the direction of propagation of the light beam. Intermediate angles are obtained by selecting the angular increments desired between these extreme angles (any multiple of 0.1deg can be selected for the angular increment; 5deg is used in normal operation). Pulses provided by digital circuits control a stepping motor which sequentially rotates the detector by pre-selected angular increments. The synchronous photon-counting system automatically begins measurement of the scattered-light intensity immediately after the rotation to a new angle has been completed. The instrument has been flown on the NASA Convair 990 airborne laboratory to obtain data on the complex index of refraction of atmospheric aerosols. A particle impaction device is operated simultaneously to collect particles from the same airflow tube used to make the scattered-light measurements. A size distribution function is obtained by analysis of the particles collected by the impaction device. Calculated values of the angular variation of the scattered-light intensity are obtained by applying Mie scattering theory to the observed size distribution function and assuming different values of the complex index of refraction of the particles. The calculated values are then compared with data on the actual variation of the scattered-light intensity obtained with the polar nephelometer. The most probable value of the complex refractive index is that which provides the best fit between the experimental light scattering data and the parameters calculated from the observed size distribution function.

Grams, Gerald W.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The connection between coronal bright points and the variability of the quiet-sun extreme-ultraviolet emission

An analysis of the EUV/Skylab data recorded at six wavelengths simultaneously and scanning the chromosphere to the corona is reported. The results show that, whether in a coronal hole or a quiet region, the significant variable emission in the quiet sun is preferentially localized in the enhanced emission produced by EUV bright points in the boundaries of network cells. The spatial density of the variable and enhanced emission varies with temperature, with a minimum at 3 x 10 exp 5 K which indicates two favored temperature distributions of small-scale loops in the quiet sun, one below 3 x 10 exp 5 K and one at coronal temperatures. The enhanced emission occupies between 10 and 25 percent of the solar surface, depending on the temperature, while the variable emission covers between 5 and 15 percent. For a given region, the spatial density at a given temperature does not vary in time by more than 10 percent about its mean value.

Habbal, Shadia R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

An improved photometric analysis of SX Aurigae

A new analysis of existing photometric data on SX Aurigae is presented which changes current conclusions in the literature concerning the star. It is concluded, based on fitting of the continuous spectrum to Kurucz model atmospheres and simplex optimization procedure utilized, that the system consists of two normal main-sequence stars of spectral types B2 and slightly earlier than B5. The components are very close to the inner Roche limiting surface. The secondary component is unevolved, and the primary component is extremely close to contact with its inner Roche lobe. The evidence indicates that mass flow from the primary to the secondary has not yet begun. Allowing the bolometric albedo of the secondary to be a free parameter produces a solution with an excellent fit to the B, V data. The derived value, A2 = 0.40, disagrees with the theoretical value for radiative atmospheres and agrees with the value for convective equilibrium.

Linnel, Albert P.↗
NASA NTRS2021

The spatial distribution of ionospheric threats to WAAS integrity, 2000 – 2019: a systematic analysis

The United States’ Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) broadcasts data to facilitate aircraft navigation. This paper examines the spatial dependence of ionospheric disturbances that have threatened the accuracy and reliability of position estimates derived from these data over the period 2000 – 2019. We address two distinct aspects of this spatial dependence: (1) the geographic distribution of these threats, in particular, in relation to geomagnetic latitude, and (2) the geometric dependence of threats relative to the locations of the receiver sites that comprise the WAAS network. We analyze threat distributions in terms of the various means that WAAS employs to mitigate these threats, including the Extreme Storm Detector, the Moderate Storm Detector, local irregularity detectors, and the ionospheric threat model. Distinct distributions are presented for threats occurring in Solar Cycle 23 and those of Solar Cycle 24. To study the geometric dependence of threats on receiver locations, we use as a metric the distance separating a threat from the centroid of the nearest Ncentroid receivers. Large values of this metric identify threats at or beyond the edge of coverage. We conclude by discussing the implications of our results for WAAS operations.

Altshuler, Eric↗
NASA NTRS2013

X-ray View of Four High-Luminosity Swift-BAT AGN: Unveiling Obscuration and Reflection with Suzaku

Aims. A complete census of obscured Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) is necessary to reveal the history of the super massive black hole (SMBH) growth and galaxy evolution in the Universe given the complex feedback processes and the fact that much of this growth occurs in an obscured phase. In this context, hard X-ray surveys and dedicated follow-up observations represent a unique tool for selecting highly absorbed AGN and for characterizing the obscuring matter surrounding the SMBH. Here we focus on the absorption and reflection occurring in highly luminous, quasar-like AGN, to study the relation between the geometry of the absorbing matter and the AGN nature (e.g. X-ray, optical, and radio properties), and to help to determine the column density dependency on the AGN luminosity. Methods. The Swift/BAT nine-month survey observed 153 AGN, all with ultra-hard X-ray BAT fluxes in excess of 10(exp −11) erg per square centimeter and an average redshift of 0.03. Among them, four of the most luminous BAT AGN (44.73 less than LogLBAT less than 45.31) were selected as targets of Suzaku follow-up observations: J2246.0+3941 (3C 452), J0407.4+0339 (3C 105), J0318.7+6828, and J0918.5+0425. The column density, scattered/reflected emission, the properties of the Fe K line, and a possible variability are fully analyzed. For the latter, the spectral properties from Chandra, XMM-Newton and Swift/XRT public observations were compared with the present Suzaku analysis, adding an original spectral analysis when non was available from the literature. Results. Of our sample, 3C 452 is the only certain Compton-thick AGN candidate because of i) the high absorption (N(sub H) approximately 4 × 10(exp 23) per square centimeter) and strong Compton reflection; ii) the lack of variability; iii) the "buried" nature, i.e. the low scattering fraction (less than 0.5%) and the extremely low relative [OIII] luminosity. In contrast 3C 105 is not reflection-dominated, despite the comparable column density, X-ray luminosity and radio morphology, but shows a strong long-term variability in flux and scattering fraction, consistent with the soft emission being scattered from a distant region (e.g., the narrow emission line region). The sample presents high (greater than 100) X-to- [OIII] luminosity ratios, with an extreme value of R(sup X)(sub [OIII]) approximately 800 for 3C 452, confirming the [OIII] luminosity to be affected by residual extinction in presence of mild absorption, especially for "buried" AGN such as 3C 452. Three of our targets are powerful FRII radio galaxies, which is shown by their high luminosity and absorption; this makes them the most luminous and absorbed AGN of the BAT Seyfert survey despite the inversely proportional N(sub H) - L(sub X) relation.

SwiftBAG AGN↗
NASA NTRS1988

Portable high-speed photometry systems for observing occultations

Because of their high spatial resolution, stellar occultations have proven extremely effective for learning about planetary upper atmospheres, asteroids, and planetary rings. The ring orbit studies for Uranus have been particularly fruitful because researchers have been able, through occultations, to obtain data of high spatial resolution (approximately 2 km) at the rate of 1 to 2 times per year. THe occultation program at M.I.T. involves: (1) identifying the scientific questions that can be answered by occultation events, (2) predicting the zone of visibilty for the useful events, (3) maintaining and improving a set of portable high-speed photometric systems, (4) obtaining the observations, and (5) reducing the data and interpreting the results. Accomplishments during the past year include: (1) a comprehensive analysis of stellar occultation data to obtain an oblateness for Uranus at the 10 ubar level of 0.0193 plus or minus 0.0010, a value consistent with the planet being in hydrostatic equilibrium and undergoing rotation at the period found by Voyger; (2) establishing an upper limit of 0.004 km on the equivalent depth of 1986U1R from 2.2 micrometer occultation data; (3) the discovery of low-amplitude waves on the edges of the epsilon ring of Uranus; and (4) the acquisition of several hundred charge coupled device strip scans of 6 weeks at Mauna Kea for the purpose of generating a prediction for the stellar occultation of Pluto.

Elliot, James L.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Steric augmentation of three-coordinate Cu( I ) β-diketiminate isocyanide chromophores to achieve microsecond excited-state lifetime

Copper(I) complexes are promising alternatives to noble metal-based photosensitizers. A recently developed class of three-coordinate copper(I) charge-transfer chromophores, pairing β-diketiminate ligands with aryl isocyanides, exhibits excited-state lifetimes that are responsive to the steric profile of the isocyanide, reaching a value of nearly 300 nanoseconds when a substituted m-terphenyl isocyanide was used. In this work, we show that extreme steric augmentation of the β-diketiminate and m-terphenyl isocyanide ligands can lead to further improvements in excited-state lifetime, with one example surpassing 1 µs. This study includes a series of eight compounds of the general formula Cu(RNacNac)(CN-Ar X2 ), where RNacNac is the substituted β-diketiminate and CN-Ar X2 is the substituted m-terphenyl isocyanide. All eight compounds are crystallographically characterized, and their excited-state properties are thoroughly evaluated by a combination of steady-state and time-resolved photoluminescence studies. This combined structural/photophysical approach unveils a correlation between common steric parameters, derived from buried volume (%V bur ) and solid angle analysis, and the excited-state lifetime. Our investigation reveals that the steric profile of the β-diketiminate has a much larger impact on the steric profile and lifetime, whereas the m-terphenyl isocyanide substituents have an unsystematic and subtle influence on these two correlated parameters. Nevertheless, judicious pairing of the two ligands is critical for achieving long excited-state lifetimes.

Kumar, Ashish [University of Houston, TX (United S↗
NASA NTRS2012

Uncertainty Quantification for Polynomial Systems via Bernstein Expansions

This paper presents a unifying framework to uncertainty quantification for systems having polynomial response metrics that depend on both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The approach proposed, which is based on the Bernstein expansions of polynomials, enables bounding the range of moments and failure probabilities of response metrics as well as finding supersets of the extreme epistemic realizations where the limits of such ranges occur. These bounds and supersets, whose analytical structure renders them free of approximation error, can be made arbitrarily tight with additional computational effort. Furthermore, this framework enables determining the importance of particular uncertain parameters according to the extent to which they affect the first two moments of response metrics and failure probabilities. This analysis enables determining the parameters that should be considered uncertain as well as those that can be assumed to be constants without incurring significant error. The analytical nature of the approach eliminates the numerical error that characterizes the sampling-based techniques commonly used to propagate aleatory uncertainties as well as the possibility of under predicting the range of the statistic of interest that may result from searching for the best- and worstcase epistemic values via nonlinear optimization or sampling.

Crespo, Luis G.↗