Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “FOSSIL FUELS”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13

Implementation of Ion Exchange Processes on Industrial Waste Streams for CO 2 Mineralization

Economic development and population growth will lead to an increase in global energy consumption. Large coal-fired power plants (>500 MW) account for almost half of the total CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, and nearly 26% of the global fossil fuel and industry CO 2 emissions. Long-term management of the more than 36 Gt of CO 2 that is emitted globally per year is urgently needed. CO 2 mineralization is an attractive method of sequestering CO 2 because it captures CO 2 as an insoluble carbonate mineral, mimicking the natural process of rock weathering. Here, we present a pathway for accelerated CO 2 mineralization enabled by divalent cations sourced from liquid streams. In this work, we investigate a mineralization route that converts flue gas CO 2 to precipitated calcium carbonate (PCC) using waste aqueous streams as the calcium source. The proposed mineralization route integrates CO 2 utilization and waste liquid management at coal power plants. Maintaining alkalinity during carbonation is the primary challenge in this process. Instead of relying on the consumption of costly and unsustainable sources of alkalinity (e.g., sodium hydroxide), we used regenerable solids to increase the pH of water by ion exchange. The increase in alkalinity creates a more thermodynamically favorable environment for calcite precipitation. The capacities for ion exchange of various commercially available zeolites and ion exchange resins in CO 2 -saturated water were studied through batch equilibrium and column ion-exchange experiments. During ion exchange, H + in the water exchanges with Na + , Ca 2+ or K + in the zeolite or resin. Batch equilibrium isotherms for H + –Na + exchange were collected by first adding varying amounts of the ion exchange solid (0 – 1.0 kg per kg of water) to CO 2 -saturated water (pCO 2 = 1 atm, pH 4) to determine the maximum H + –Na + exchange achievable. Ion-exchange column studies were performed to determine breakthrough capacity of the system. In both systems, an increase in pH coupled with an increase in Na concentration was observed, demonstrating the feasibility of forward ion exchange. Zeolitic materials increased the alkalinity of the solution from pH 4 to around 10, whereas ion exchange resins containing weakly acidic functional groups (e.g., carboxylic acid) exhibited higher affinity for H + , increasing pH to 11.3 and surpassing the pH shift induced by the zeolitic materials. The extent of calcite precipitation was evaluated by mixing the alkaline CO 3 2- -rich water obtained after passing through the ion-exchange column and a CaCl 2 solution. Calcite yields are as expected from chemical thermodynamics. Calcium carbonate yields found experimentally were about 26 and 8 mmol per kg water for the weakly acidic ion exchange resin and zeolitic materials, respectively. The results from these studies indicate that ion exchange processes can be used as an alternative to the addition of stoichiometric inorganic bases (e.g., sodium hydroxide) to induce alkalinity for the consequent precipitation of CaCO 3 . Instead, weakly acidic ion exchange resins commonly used for water hardness removal were alternatively used to induce pH swings in the aqueous solutions. The high calcium carbonate yields obtained for the materials examined demonstrate the potential application of this process. In addition, the successful operation of the calcium carbonate production process at standard temperature and pressure conditions support its potential for industrial implementation.

Simonetti, Dante↗

Los Angeles megacity: a high-resolution land–atmosphere modelling system for urban CO 2 emissions

Megacities are major sources of anthropogenic fossil fuel CO 2 (FFCO 2 ) emissions. The spatial extents of these large urban systems cover areas of 10 000 km 2 or more with complex topography and changing landscapes. We present a high-resolution land–atmosphere modelling system for urban CO 2 emissions over the Los Angeles (LA) megacity area. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem model was coupled to a very high-resolution FFCO 2 emission product, Hestia-LA, to simulate atmospheric CO 2 concentrations across the LA megacity at spatial resolutions as fine as ~1 km. We evaluated multiple WRF configurations, selecting one that minimized errors in wind speed, wind direction, and boundary layer height as evaluated by its performance against meteorological data collected during the CalNex-LA campaign (May–June 2010). Our results show no significant difference between moderate-resolution (4 km) and high-resolution (1.3 km) simulations when evaluated against surface meteorological data, but the high-resolution configurations better resolved planetary boundary layer heights and vertical gradients in the horizontal mean winds. We coupled our WRF configuration with the Vulcan 2.2 (10 km resolution) and Hestia-LA (1.3 km resolution) fossil fuel CO 2 emission products to evaluate the impact of the spatial resolution of the CO 2 emission products and the meteorological transport model on the representation of spatiotemporal variability in simulated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. We find that high spatial resolution in the fossil fuel CO 2 emissions is more important than in the atmospheric model to capture CO 2 concentration variability across the LA megacity. Finally, we present a novel approach that employs simultaneous correlations of the simulated atmospheric CO 2 fields to qualitatively evaluate the greenhouse gas measurement network over the LA megacity. Spatial correlations in the atmospheric CO 2 fields reflect the coverage of individual measurement sites when a statistically significant number of sites observe emissions from a specific source or location. We conclude that elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations over the LA megacity are composed of multiple fine-scale plumes rather than a single homogenous urban dome. Furthermore, we conclude that FFCO 2 emissions monitoring in the LA megacity requires FFCO 2 emissions modelling with ~1 km resolution because coarser-resolution emissions modelling tends to overestimate the observational constraints on the emissions estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

North America's net terrestrial CO 2 exchange with the atmosphere 1990–2009

Scientific understanding of the global carbon cycle is required for developing national and international policy to mitigate fossil fuel CO 2 emissions by managing terrestrial carbon uptake. Toward that understanding and as a contribution to the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project, this paper provides a synthesis of net land–atmosphere CO 2 exchange for North America (Canada, United States, and Mexico) over the period 1990–2009. Only CO 2 is considered, not methane or other greenhouse gases. This synthesis is based on results from three different methods: atmospheric inversion, inventory-based methods and terrestrial biosphere modeling. All methods indicate that the North American land surface was a sink for atmospheric CO 2 , with a net transfer from atmosphere to land. Estimates ranged from -890 to -280 Tg C yr -1 , where the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates forms the lower bound of that range (a larger land sink) and the inventory-based estimate using the production approach the upper (a smaller land sink). This relatively large range is due in part to differences in how the approaches represent trade, fire and other disturbances and which ecosystems they include. Integrating across estimates, \"best\" estimates (i.e., measures of central tendency) are -472 ± 281 Tg C yr -1 based on the mean and standard deviation of the distribution and -360 Tg C yr -1 (with an interquartile range of -496 to -337) based on the median. Considering both the fossil fuel emissions source and the land sink, our analysis shows that North America was, however, a net contributor to the growth of CO 2 in the atmosphere in the late 20th and early 21st century. With North America's mean annual fossil fuel CO 2 emissions for the period 1990–2009 equal to 1720 Tg C yr -1 and assuming the estimate of -472 Tg C yr -1 as an approximation of the true terrestrial CO 2 sink, the continent's source : sink ratio for this time period was 1720:472, or nearly 4:1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The role of bioenergy in a climate-changing world

Bioenergy has been under intense scrutiny over the last ten years with significant research efforts in many countries taking place to define and measure sustainable practices. We describe here the main challenges and policy issues and provide policy recommendations for scaling up sustainable bioenergy approaches globally. The 2016 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs defined under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP21) will not reach global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission targets of 2 °C. Sustainable biomass production can make a significant contribution. Substantive evidence exists that many bioenergy cropping systems can bring multiple benefits and off-set environmental problems associated with fossil fuels usage as well as intensive food production and urbanization. We provide evidence that there are many approaches to land use for bioenergy expansion that do not lead to competition for food or other needs. We should focus on how to manage these approaches on a synergistic basis and how to reduce tradeoffs at landscape scales. Priorities include successful synergies between bioenergy and food security (integrated resource management designed to improve both food security and access to bioenergy), investments in technology, rural extension, and innovations that build capacity and infrastructure, promotion of stable prices to incentivize local production and use of double cropping and flex crops (plants grown for both food and non-food markets) that provide food and energy as well as other services. The sustainable production of biomass requires appropriate policies to secure long-term support to improve crop productivity and also to ensure environmental as well as economic and social benefits of bioenergy cropping systems. Continuous support for cropping, infrastructure, agricultural management and related policies is needed to foster positive synergies between food crops and bioenergy production. In comparison to fossil fuels, biofuels have many positive environmental benefits. Potential negative effects caused by land-use change and agriculture intensification can be mitigated by agroecological zoning, best management practices, the use of eco-hydrology and biodiversity-friendly concepts at field, watershed and landscape scales. Global climate and environmental changes related to the use of fossil fuels and inequitable development make it unethical not to pursue more equitable energy development that includes bioenergy. Here, to achieve sustainable development, competitiveness and costs of bioenergy production need to be addressed in a manner that considers not only economic gains but also development of local knowledge and social and environmental benefits.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Economic carbon cycle feedbacks may offset additional warming from natural feedbacks

As the Earth warms, carbon sinks on land and in the ocean will weaken, thereby increasing the rate of warming. Although natural mechanisms contributing to this positive climate–carbon feedback have been evaluated using Earth system models, analogous feedbacks involving human activities have not been systematically quantified. Here we conceptualize and estimate the magnitude of several economic mechanisms that generate a carbon–climate feedback, using the Kaya identity to separate a net economic feedback into components associated with population, GDP, heating and cooling, and the carbon intensity of energy production and transportation. We find that climate-driven decreases in economic activity (GDP) may in turn decrease human energy use and thus fossil fuel CO 2 emissions. In a high radiative forcing scenario, such decreases in economic activity reduce fossil fuel emissions by 13% this century, lowering atmospheric CO 2 by over 100 ppm in 2100. The natural carbon–climate feedback, in contrast, increases atmospheric CO 2 over this period by a similar amount, and thus, the net effect including both feedbacks is nearly zero. Our work highlights the importance of improving the representation of climate–economic feedbacks in scenarios of future change. Although the effects of climate warming on the economy may offset weakening land and ocean carbon sinks, a loss of economic productivity will have high societal costs, potentially increasing wealth inequity and limiting resources available for effective adaptation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Solid oxidized fuel cells seals leakage setup and testing

As the world s reserves of fossil fuels are depleted, the U.S. Government, as well as other countries and private industries, is researching solutions for obtaining power, answers that would be more efficient and environmentally friendly. For a long time engineers have been trying to obtain the benefits of clean electric power without heavy batteries or pollution-producing engines. While some of the inventions proved to be effective (i.e. solar panels or windmills) their applications are limited due to dependency on the energy source (i.e. sun or wind). Currently, as energy concerns increase, research is being carried out on the development of a Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC). The United States government is taking a proactive role in expanding the technology through the Solid State Energy Conversion Alliance (SECA) Program, which is coordinated by the Department of Energy. into an electrical energy. This occurs by the means of natural tendency of oxygen and hydrogen to chemically react. While controlling the process, it is possible to harvest the energy given off by the reaction. SOFCs use currently available fossil fuels and convert a variety of those fuels with very high efficiency (about 40% more efficient than modem thermal power plants). At the same time they are almost entirely nonpolluting and due to their size they can be placed in remote areas. The main fields where the application of the fuel cells appears to be the most useful for are stationary energy sources, transportation, and military applications. structure and materials must be resolved. All the components must be operational in harsh environments including temperatures reaching 800 C and cyclic thermal- mechanical loading. Under these conditions, the main concern is the requirement for hermetic seals to: (1) prevent mixing of the fuel and oxidant within the stack, (2) prevent parasitic leakage of the fuel from the stack, (3) prevent contamination of the anode by air leaking into the stack, (4) electrically isolate the individual cells within the stack, and (5) mechanically bond the cell components. The sealing challenges are aggravated by the need to maintain hermetic boundaries between the different flow paths within the fuel cell throughout cycled operation. Within the timeframe of my tenure, the main objective is to assist in building a state-of-art test facility.

Bastrzyk, Marta B.↗

A fuel conservation study for transport aircraft utilizing advanced technology and hydrogen fuel

The conservation of fossil fuels in commercial aviation was investigated. Four categories of aircraft were selected for investigation: (1) conventional, medium range, low take-off gross weight; (2) conventional, long range, high take-off gross weights; (3) large take-off gross weight aircraft that might find future applications using both conventional and advanced technology; and (4) advanced technology aircraft of the future powered with liquid hydrogen fuel. It is concluded that the hydrogen fueled aircraft can perform at reduced size and gross weight the same payload/range mission as conventionally fueled aircraft.

Berry, W.↗

Take a Closer Look:Biofuels Can Support Environmental, Economic and Social Goals

The US Congress passed the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) seven years ago. Since then, biofuels have gone from darling to scapegoat for many environmentalists, policy makers, and the general public. The reasons for this shift are complex and include concerns about environmental degradation, uncertainties about impact on food security, new access to fossil fuels, and overly optimistic timetables. As a result, many people have written off biofuels. However, numerous studies indicate that biofuels, if managed sustainably, can help solve pressing environmental, social and economic problems (Figure 1). The scientific and policy communities should take a closer look by reviewing the key assumptions underlying opposition to biofuels and carefully consider the probable alternatives. Liquid fuels based on fossil raw materials are likely to come at increasing environmental cost. Sustainable futures require energy conservation, increased efficiency, and alternatives to fossil fuels, including biofuels.

Dale, Bruce E.↗

Mathematical Modelling-Based Energy System Operation Strategy Considering Energy Storage Systems

Renewable energy resources are widely recognized as an alternative to environmentally harmful fossil fuels. More renewable energy technologies will need to penetrate into fossil fuel dominated energy systems to mitigate the globally witnessed climate changes and environmental pollutions. It is necessary to prepare for the potential problems with increased proportions of renewable energy in the energy system, to prevent higher costs and decreased reliability. Motivated by this need, this paper addresses the operation of an energy system with an energy storage system in the context of developing a decision-supporting framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Rheological Characterization of Biomass Feedstock for Alternative Energy Applications

With the increased necessity of alternative energy resources, bulk feedstock biomass materials were characterized with the purpose of replacing depleting energy supplies such as fossil fuels and other nonrenewable energy sources. Residual organic waste material (biomass) left over from agricultural processing and handling systems was recycled, and further investigated for renewable energy use. Understanding the scope of flowability for biomass material yielded more efficient, and economical crop harvesting, transporting, and storing method design for the agricultural industry. The effects of moisture on bulk solid flowability was investigated using a variety of parametric testing methods that measure basic flowability energy, and other properties such as compressibility and material resistance. In an industry where organic material is a wasteful byproduct, converting this biomass material into a new energy source and streamlining efficiently for innovative agricultural development supports a clean, renewable energy approach to everyday nonrenewable energy uses, such as oil, propane, and coal. As observed from the repeatable results from the investigated rheological material properties, biomass is an incredibly diverse material that requires modern engineering solutions to revolutionize biomass into a renewable energy source. Biomass will decarbonize petroleum (nonrenewable) derived fuels and chemicals, yielding recyclable carbon. This push to replace fossil fuels with recycled carbon is ideal because of the abundant, renewable, and otherwise agricultural waste of corn stover material. Decarburization, and reduction of C0 2 emissions reduces the effects of global warming.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Handling and Properties of Methanol as a Marine Fuel

Given the increasing concern around greenhouse gas emissions and the decline in the availability of fossil fuels, there is increasing global demand to develop alternate fuels for maritime transportation that are sustainable and which have lower greenhouse gas emissions. Methanol is one such alternative fuel that has garnered considerable attention given its potential to be produced by more sustainable processes and its more favorable greenhouse gas emission profile in comparison with current fossil fuels. Understanding the physical and chemical properties of methanol under a range of conditions is essential for its development as a marine fuel. In this study, we seek to define physical and chemical properties of different methanol samples to simulate real-world storage conditions as these data are lacking in the literature. Several methanol samples were evaluated: nearly pure methanol; International Organization for Standardization (ISO) marine methanol (MM) grades A, B, and C; and methanol plus higher alcohols. We first evaluated all methanol samples for impurities, acetic acid content, density, and distillation range. We then characterized the effects of water absorption and found that methanol can easily absorb unacceptable water content from humid air within hours, necessitating storage conditions that prevent this process. In eight-week aging experiments at 20 °C and 40 °C in ambient air, we did not observe significant oxidation for any of the methanol samples; however, we did observe increases in acid number. We assessed the impact of contamination of methanol with water, marine gas oil (MGO), and an MGO–biodiesel mixture on density, viscosity, distillation range, and lubricity. Finally, we show that MGO contamination of methanol results in a slight increase in sooting tendency. In aggregate, our results provide an in-depth analysis of physical and chemical properties of methanol as well as the impacts of storage conditions and impurities on the properties of fuel methanol.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A preliminary assessment of the feasibility of deriving liquid and gaseous fuels from grown and waste organics

The anticipated depletion of our resources of natural gas and petroleum in a few decades has caused a search for renewable sources of fuel. Among the possibilities is the chemical conversion of waste and grown organic matter into gaseous or liquid fuels. The overall feasibility of such a system is considered from the technical, economic, and social viewpoints. Although there are a number of difficult problems to overcome, this preliminary study indicates that this option could provide between 4 and 10 percent of the U.S. energy needs. Estimated costs of fuels derived from grown organic material are appreciably higher than today's market price for fossil fuel. The cost of fuel derived from waste organics is competitive with fossil fuel prices. Economic and social reasons will prohibit the allocation of good food producing land to fuel crop production.

Graham, R. W.↗

Phases 1 & 2—Coal-Based Oxy-Fuel System Evaluation and Combustor Development and Phase 2A—Recovery Act: Oxy-Fuel Turbomachinery Development for Energy Intensive Industrial Applications (Final Report, Rev.1)

Clean Energy Systems, Inc. (CES) partnered with the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory in 2005 to study and develop a competing technology for use in future fossil-fueled power generation facilities that could operate with near zero emissions. CES’s background in oxy-fuel (O-F) rocket technology lead to the award of Cooperative Agreement DE-FC26-05NT42645, “Coal-Based Oxy-Fuel System Evaluation and Combustor Development,” where CES was to first evaluate the potential of these O-F power cycles, then develop the detailed design of a commercial-scale O-F combustor for use in these clean burning fossil-fueled plants. Throughout the studies, CES found that in order to operate at competitive cycle efficiencies a high-temperature intermediate pressure turbine was required. This led to an extension of the Agreement for, “Oxy-Fuel Turbomachinery Development for Energy Intensive Industrial Applications” where CES was to also develop an intermediate-pressure O-F turbine (OFT) that could be deployed in O-F industrial plants that capture and sequester >99% of produced CO 2 , at competitive cycle efficiencies using diverse fuels. The following report details CES’ activities from October 2005 through March 2013, to evaluate O-F power cycles, develop and validate detailed designs of O-F combustors (main and reheat), and to design, manufacture, and test a commercial-scale OFT, under the three-phase Cooperative Agreement.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Energy-based break-even transportation distance of biomass feedstocks

The distance a solid biomass feedstock could be used to transport the feedstock when used as biobased fuel is critical information for transportation analysis. However, this information is not available. The break-even transportation distance (BTD) of various fuels from biomass feedstocks and fossil sources was analyzed for truck, rail, and ship transport modes based on bulk density, moisture content, and specific energy. Fourteen different biomass feedstocks, such as crop residues (e.g., corn stover), woody biomass (e.g., wood chips), including thermally pretreated (torrefied) and densified forms (pellets), cattle feedlot compost, and three standard fossil fuels, namely, coal, lignite, and diesel, were considered for BTD analysis and comparison. The BTD values were derived by comparing the energy content of biomass feedstocks with the energy expended in transporting the fuels through selected transportation modes. For ready reference, an alternative derivation of BTD equations and example calculations were also presented. Among the biomass feedstocks, torrefied pellets had the highest BTD (4.16 × 10 4 , 12.47 × 10 4 , and 54.14 × 10 4 km), and cattle feedlot compost had the lowest BTD (1.29 × 10 4 , 3.88 × 10 4 , and 9.23 × 10 4 km), respectively, for truck, rail, and ship. Higher bulk density and higher specific energy of the biomass feedstocks increased the BTD for all modes of transport. Transport is most efficient when mass-limited. Biomass feedstock bulk densities where transportation becomes mass-limited are 223, 1,480, and 656 kg/m 3 for truck, rail, and ship, respectively. Truck transport is typically mass-limited (payload limit restriction; increased BTD), whereas rail transport is entirely volume-limited (cargo space restriction; decreased BTD), and ship transport is mostly volume-limited for biomass feedstocks and mass-limited for densified biomass feedstocks. Ship transport is the most efficient, followed by rail and truck; on average for the materials (17) studied, rail is 3.1 times and ship is 9.2 times the truck's BTD. Based on the bulk density and higher specific energy of the biomass feedstocks, regardless of the refinery location, interstate truck transport of these feedstocks is not a limiting factor in the bio-refining process., with the studied biomass feedstock BTD per truckload representing between 0.89 and 2.88 times the US perimeter.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Optimal control of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions through technological options: a modeling study

The anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) is the prime culprit for the menace of global warming. To achieve the goal of mitigation of global warming, it is crucial to curb the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. The prime anthropogenic source of CO{sub 2} is fossil fuel burning. In this paper, we propose a nonlinear mathematical model to study the impact of technological options, used for the reduction of CO{sub 2} emissions from fossil fuel burning and industrial processes, on the control of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. In the modeling process, it is assumed that the technological options are implemented to curb the CO{sub 2} emissions from the source at a rate proportional to the anthropogenic CO{sub 2} emissions. Model analysis reveals that the atmospheric level of CO{sub 2} can be effectively reduced by increasing the implementation rate of technological options and their efficiency. The strategies which optimally reduce atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels while minimizing the cost associated with the implementation of technological options are identified using optimal control theory. Numerical simulation has been carried out to illustrate theoretical results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Energy Storage and Power Plant Decommissioning

The report examines three fossil-fuel power plant decommissioning strategies to assess the role of energy storage in enabling an equitable clean energy transition future. The analysis showed how storage could enable reduction of fossil-fuel sources from the grid while enabling increased renewable energy integration into the electric grid. The report offers recommendations for future work, including the need to further develop the non-energy benefit attributes of energy storage systems with a focus on the benefits accrued to local communities to understand past decisions and inform future decision-making tools that account for environmental, economic, and social impacts, particularly those on disadvantaged communities.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Performance of Hybrid Renewable Energy Power System for a Residential Building

Using fossil fuels as the primary way to generate electricity causes a significant effect on the environment. In 2019, more than 64% of the electricity in the United States of America was generated using fossil-fuel resources, while renewable energy (RE) resources contributed to only 17% of the U.S. electricity generation for the same year. Additionally, due to the complex terrain distribution of many states in the U.S., a massive opportunity of utilizing RE resources in rural and remote areas can reduce the cost of electrical grid installation for such areas. In this study, a typical residential building with an average energy utilization of 30.25 kWh/day with a demand peak of 5.34 kW was considered a case study in each state to optimize a hybrid RE system and find the best alternative electrical grid system. This study presents the best configuration between solar and wind energy with different types of energy storage. It was discovered the photovoltaic (PV) solar panels—diesel generators with battery best services in all states. The daily radiation and diesel prices substantially affect the levelized cost of energy (COE) values in each state.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Climate Forcing Growth Rates: Doubling Down on Our Faustian Bargain

Rahmstorf et al 's (2012) conclusion that observed climate change is comparable to projections, and in some cases exceeds projections, allows further inferences if we can quantify changing climate forcings and compare those with projections. The largest climate forcing is caused by well-mixed long-lived greenhouse gases. Here we illustrate trends of these gases and their climate forcings, and we discuss implications. We focus on quantities that are accurately measured, and we include comparison with fixed scenarios, which helps reduce common misimpressions about how climate forcings are changing. Annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions have shot up in the past decade at about 3/yr, double the rate of the prior three decades (figure 1). The growth rate falls above the range of the IPCC (2001) 'Marker' scenarios, although emissions are still within the entire range considered by the IPCC SRES (2000). The surge in emissions is due to increased coal use (blue curve in figure 1), which now accounts for more than 40 of fossil fuel CO2 emissions.

climate↗