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Hydropower Capacity Factor Trends & Analytics for the United States

This data repository contains all code, input data, and data generated for Turner et al. (2024)—“Hydropower capacity factors trending down in the United States”. File descriptions: – hydro-cf-trends-inputs.zip: Full set of input data used in this study, organized for direct entry into “/data” directory of hydro-cf-trends data processing pipeline. – hydro-cf-trends.zip: Full data processing pipeline, coded using the R {targets} framework. This is a snapshot release (v1.0) of the code repository stored at https://code.ornl.gov/turnersw/hydro-cf-trends/. – hydro-cf-trends-results.zip: Provides all dam level results required to reproduce results and graphics in Turner et al. (2024). Dams are identified by the “complxID” (root of the hydropower plant ID in the Existing Hydropower Assets Database, inherited from HILARRI). Results include: • dam_CF_trends.csv: Table of long-term trends in annualized capacity factors for 610 dams and modeled annualized capacity factors for 362 modeled dams (naturalized and assimilated flows). • dam_annualized_CF_gen.csv: Annualized time series of the following variables for each of 610 hydropower dams with nameplate > 5MW – Reported nameplate capacity (MW) – Implied maximum annual generation (MWh) – Reported net generation (MWh) – Computed annual capacity factor – Modeled annual capacity factor (362 modeled plants only)

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

A New Measurement of the Neutron Electric Form Factor with the Super Bigbite Spectrometer Apparatus

Protons and neutrons, collectively known as nucleons, make up the nuclei at the core of atoms which form our world. The nucleon has been under intensive study for over 100 years, and yet we still do not fully understand the internal dynamics which govern properties like its spin or its mass-which contributes to almost all of the visible mass in the universe. These dynamics are governed by quantum chromodynamics(QCD), the predictions of which are experimentally tested at high energy accelerator facilities such as Jefferson Lab. TheGEN-II experiment (E12-09-016) is one such experiment. GEN-II is part of the Super Bigbite Spectrometer (SBS) experimental form factor pro gramme taking place in Hall A at Jefferson Lab, which aims to make precision measurements of the nucleon electromagnetic form factors(EMFFs)at record high values of squared four momentum transfer ¿2. EMFFs describe the electric and magnetic moment distributions within the nucleon. They can be measured through elastic electron scattering off the nucleon, and describe the recoil response of the target nucleon at a given energy scale. GEN-II is a double polarized semi-exclusive beam target asymmetry (BTA) experiment, seeking to measure the electric form factor of the neutron,¿¿ ¿,at three new values of squared four-momentum transfer¿2 =2.92,6.74and9.82GeV². The latter two points being at record high ¿2. The form factor is determined through measuring the BTA of quasielliptical scattering of a neutron from a polarized nuclear target. The experiment utilized the CEBAF accelerator to produce longitudinally polarized electrons up to ~85% polarization, which were scattered off neutrons within a novel polarized helium-3 (³He) target. This new polarized ³He target was employed by building on the technology of its precursors which existed in similar preceding experiments. This target was designed to operate at the high luminosities typical of Hall A, and reached a record breaking combination of polarization and beam intensity known as figure of merit, three times larger than those predecessors. The SBS collaboration designed and constructed two brand new high acceptance spectrometers for these experiments, an electron arm named Bigbite (BB) and a hadron arm named Super Bigbite. Both spectrometers featured a large acceptance EM dipole magnet, and complementary detector systems. The electron arm contained gaseous electronmultipliers(GEMs) which were used for high precision tracking of the scattered electrons, a heavy gas cherenkov (GRINCH) which was used for PID between electrons and pions, a plastic i ii scintillator timing hodoscope to provide high resolution timing of the start of events, and a pair of EM calorimeters (BBCal) which provided energy measurements of detected particles, and provided the experimental trigger. The hadron arm also contained a system of GEMs which will be utilized for future SBS experiments, and a hadron calorimeter designed to provide position, timing and energy measurements of the recoiling nucleon. The calibration of all detector subsystems, beam and target data is discussed, with a focus on novel timing calibrations to the hodoscope and hadron calorimeter. An analysis of selecting quasielliptical events and suppressing background contributions from a number of sources which contaminate the final event sample is given. The largest irreducible backgrounds are found to be from misidentified protons, timing accidentals and inelastic events. The physical asymmetry is measured and used to extract a value for the form factor ratio ¿¿ ¿/¿¿ ¿. High precision ¿2 data for ¿¿ ¿ is used to then extract ¿¿ ¿. This work finds at ¿2 = 2.92 GeV2 that ¿¿ ¿ = 0.0129+0.0019 -0.0020. This result is in statistical agreement with existing fits to world data, and predictions from the constituent quark model and Dyson–Schwinger equations, in this region of ¿2.

Penman, Gary [Univ. of Glasgow, Scotland (United K↗

Race-Specific Risk Factors for Homeownership Disparity in the Continental United States

The United States has a racial homeownership gap due to a legacy of historic inequality and discriminatory policies, but factors that contribute to the racial disparity in homeownership rates between White Americans and people of color have not been fully characterized. In order to alleviate this issue, policymakers need a better understanding of how risk factors affect the homeownership rates of racial and ethnic groups differently. In this study, data from several publicly available surveys, including the American Community Survey and United States Census, were leveraged in combination with statistical learning models to investigate potential factors related to homeownership rates across racial and ethnic categories, with a focus on how risk factors vary by race or ethnicity. Our models indicated that job availability for specific demographics, and specific regions of the United States were factors that affect homeownership rates in Black, Hispanic, and Asian populations in different ways. Based on the results of this study, it is recommended policymakers promote strategies to increase access to jobs for people of color (POC), such as vocational training and programs to reduce implicit bias in hiring practices. These interventions could ultimately increase homeownership rates for POC and be a step toward reducing the racial wealth gap.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

VIEW: A modification of the RAVFAC view factor program for use with the NASTRAN thermal analyzer

The NASTRAN thermal analyzer will include the capability to perform complete thermal analyses on structures. One of the inputs to NASTRAN required to simulate radiative heat transfer between surfaces will be the view factors (also called shape factors, form factors, configuration factors) between those surfaces. The purpose of the VIEW program is to compute these view factors and produce appropriate RADMTX and RADLST output to be used as NASTRAN bulk data.

Puccinelli, E. F.↗

Collocated interfacial stress intensity factors for finite bi-material plates.

This paper deals with elastic stress intensity factors associated with stress fields near partially debonded interfaces in finite, bi-material plates. Bi-material stress intensity factors K1 and K2 are not associated, respectively, with symmetric and skew-symmetric loading and are functions of an arbitrary length parameter. Any fracture condition involving bi-material stress intensity factors must be independent of the arbitrary length parameter and must be consistent with experiment. We define a new parameter called the interfacial stress intensity factor which satisfies the former condition. A truncated Williams power series stress function for stresses in a cracked bi-material plate, as modified by Sih and Rice, is used with a modified boundary collocation procedure to generate interfacial stress intensity factors for finite bi-material plates.

Sawyer, S. G.↗

Preserving sparseness in multivariate polynominal factorization

Attempts were made to factor these ten polynomials on MACSYMA. However it did not get very far with any of the larger polynomials. At that time, MACSYMA used an algorithm created by Wang and Rothschild. This factoring algorithm was also implemented for the symbolic manipulation system, SCRATCHPAD of IBM. A closer look at this old factoring algorithm revealed three problem areas, each of which contribute to losing sparseness and intermediate expression growth. This study led to effective ways of avoiding these problems and actually to a new factoring algorithm. The three problems are known as the extraneous factor problem, the leading coefficient problem, and the bad zero problem. These problems are examined separately. Their causes and effects are set forth in detail; the ways to avoid or lessen these problems are described.

Wang, P. S.↗

The equatorial total electron content and shape factor

The diurnal variations of electron content and shape factor observed at an equatorial station during sunspot minimum are shown to be consistent with the electron density profiles observed at Jicamarca during sunspot minimum. The rapid increase in electron content and the shape factor at sunrise results from the EUV production of ionization in the E and F regions. Day-to-day variations in daytime electron content are observed to be quite small at the equator. The evening decrease in the shape factor results from an upward drift of the F region at sunset and the evening decay of the E and bottomside F regions. The nighttime peak or plateau in the shape factor is produced by the slow downward drift of the electron density profile. The deep predawn dip in the shape factor is caused by the main peak of the F layer reaching low altitudes where high loss rates cause a large reduction in ionization below 300 km and very flat electron density profile.

Donnelly, R. F.↗

Motor power factor controller with a reduced voltage starter

A power factor type motor controller is disclosed in which the conventional power factor constant voltage command signal is replaced during a starting interval with a graduated control voltage. This continuation-impart of a pending patent application (Serial No. 199, 765: Three Phase Factor Controller) provides a means for modifying the operation of the system for a motor start-up interval of 5 to 30 second. Using a ramp generators, an initial ramp-like signal replaces a constant power factor signal supplied by a potentiometer. The ramp-like signal is applied to a 15 terminal where it is summed with an operating power factor signal from phase detectors in order to obtain a control signal for ultimately controlling SCR devices. The SCR devices are turned on at an advancing rate with time responsive to the combination signal described rather than simply a function of a ramp-like signal alone.

Nola, F. J.↗

ERBS Human Factors Analysis: A Case Study

The incorporation of human factors into the system development process and the benefits derived are discussed. The human factors analysis task for the Earth radiation budget satellite (ERBS) payload operations control center (POCC) is a pathfinder in the new applications approach to this discipline within the mission and data operations directorate. The topics covered include: discussions of the motivation for human factors analysis; the involvement of the human factors research group (HFRG) with project and system developers, and some examples of human factors issues addressed in the ERBS analysis task.

Karen L Moe↗

Dipole-field sums and Lorentz factors for orthorhombic lattices, and implications for polarizable molecules

A method for computing the Lorentz tensor components in single crystals via rapidly convergent sums of Bessels functions is developed using the relationship between dipole-field sums and the tensor components. The Lorentz factors for simple, body-centered, and base-centered orthorhombic lattices are computed using this method, and the derivative Lorentz factors for simple orthorhombic lattices are also determined. Both the Lorentz factors and their derivatives are shown to be very sensitive to a lattice structure. The equivalent of the Clausius-Mossotti relation for general orthorhombic lattices is derived using the Lorentz-factor formalism, and the permanent molecular dipole moment is related to crystal polarization for the case of a ferroelectric of polarizable point dipoles. It is concluded that the polarization enhancement due to self-polarization familiar from classical theory may actually be a reduction in consequences of negative Lorentz factors in one or two lattice directions for noncubic crystals.

Purvis, C. K.↗

Parametric study of stress-intensity factors in bonded composite stringer panels

Stress-intensity factors are determined for an infinite cracked orthotropic sheet adhesively bonded to an orthotropic stringer. Since the stringer is modeled as a semi-infinite sheet, the solution is most appropriate for a crack tip located near a stringer edge. Both adherends are treated as homogeneous, orthotropic media which are representative of many fiber-reinforced composite materials. The complex variable theory of elasticity was used to obtain a set of integral equations describing the problem. The integral equations are replaced by an equivalent sheet of algebraic equations, which are solved to obtain the shear stress distribution in the adhesive layer. From these adhesive stresses, the stress-intensity factors are found. A parametric study is conducted to determine the sensitivity of the system to material properties and specimen configuration. Unless the crack tip is very close to or under the stringer, the stress-intensity factor is approximately that of the unstiffened sheet. However, as the crack propagates beneath the stringer, the stress-intensity factor decreases significantly. Increasing the stringer stiffness or the adhesive stiffness also decreases the stress-intensity factor.

Bigelow, C. A.↗

A re-evaluation of finite-element models and stress-intensity factors for surface cracks emanating from stress concentrations

A re-evaluation of the 3-D finite-element models and methods used to analyze surface crack at stress concentrations is presented. Previous finite-element models used by Raju and Newman for surface and corner cracks at holes were shown to have ill-shaped elements at the intersection of the hole and crack boundaries. These ill-shaped elements tended to make the model too stiff and, hence, gave lower stress-intensity factors near the hole-crack intersection than models without these elements. Improved models, without these ill-shaped elements, were developed for a surface crack at a circular hole and at a semi-circular edge notch. Stress-intensity factors were calculated by both the nodal-force and virtual-crack-closure methods. Both methods and different models gave essentially the same results. Comparisons made between the previously developed stress-intensity factor equations and the results from the improved models agreed well except for configurations with large notch-radii-to-plate-thickness ratios. Stress-intensity factors for a semi-elliptical surface crack located at the center of a semi-circular edge notch in a plate subjected to remote tensile loadings were calculated using the improved models. The ratio of crack depth to crack length ranged form 0.4 to 2; the ratio of crack depth to plate thickness ranged from 0.2 to 0.8; and the ratio of notch radius to the plate thickness ranged from 1 to 3. The models had about 15,000 degrees-of-freedom. Stress-intensity factors were calculated by using the nodal-force method.

Tan, P. W.↗

Friction factor data for flat plate tests of smooth and honeycomb surfaces

Friction factors for honeycomb surfaces were measured with a flat plate tester. The flat plate test apparatus was described and a method was discussed for determining the friction factor experimentally. The friction factor model was developed for the flat plate test based on the Fanno Line Flow. The comparisons of the friction factor were plotted for smooth surfaces and six-honeycomb surfaces with three-clearances, 6.9 bar to 17.9 bar range of inlet pressures, and 5,000 to 100,000 range of the Reynolds number. The optimum geometries for the maximum friction factor were found as a function of cell width to cell depth and cell width to clearance ratios.

Ha, Tae Woong↗

Comparison of dose estimates using the buildup-factor method and a Baryon transport code (BRYNTRN) with Monte Carlo results

Continuing efforts toward validating the buildup factor method and the BRYNTRN code, which use the deterministic approach in solving radiation transport problems and are the candidate engineering tools in space radiation shielding analyses, are presented. A simplified theory of proton buildup factors assuming no neutron coupling is derived to verify a previously chosen form for parameterizing the dose conversion factor that includes the secondary particle buildup effect. Estimates of dose in tissue made by the two deterministic approaches and the Monte Carlo method are intercompared for cases with various thicknesses of shields and various types of proton spectra. The results are found to be in reasonable agreement but with some overestimation by the buildup factor method when the effect of neutron production in the shield is significant. Future improvement to include neutron coupling in the buildup factor theory is suggested to alleviate this shortcoming. Impressive agreement for individual components of doses, such as those from the secondaries and heavy particle recoils, are obtained between BRYNTRN and Monte Carlo results.

Shinn, Judy L.↗

Aerostructural safety factor criteria

The present modification of the conventional safety factor method for aircraft structures evaluation involves the expression of deterministic safety factors in probabilistic tolerance limit ratios; these are found to involve a total of three factors that control the interference of applied and resistive stress distributions. The deterministic expression is extended so that it may furnish a 'relative ultimate safety' index that encompasses all three distribution factors. Operational reliability is developed on the basis of the applied and the yield stress distribution interferences. Industry standards are suggested to be derivable from factor selections that are based on the consequences of failure.

Verderaime, V.↗

TRASYS form factor matrix normalization

A method has been developed for adjusting a TRASYS enclosure form factor matrix to unity. This approach is not limited to closed geometries, and in fact, it is primarily intended for use with open geometries. The purpose of this approach is to prevent optimistic form factors to space. In this method, nodal form factor sums are calculated within 0.05 of unity using TRASYS, although deviations as large as 0.10 may be acceptable, and then, a process is employed to distribute the difference amongst the nodes. A specific example has been analyzed with this method, and a comparison was performed with a standard approach for calculating radiation conductors. In this comparison, hot and cold case temperatures were determined. Exterior nodes exhibited temperature differences as large as 7 C and 3 C for the hot and cold cases, respectively when compared with the standard approach, while interior nodes demonstrated temperature differences from 0 C to 5 C. These results indicate that temperature predictions can be artificially biased if the form factor computation error is lumped into the individual form factors to space.

Tsuyuki, Glenn T.↗

Friction-factor data for flat-plate tests of smooth and honeycomb surfaces

Friction factors for honeycomb surfaces were measured with a flat plate tester. The flat plate test apparatus was described and a method was discussed for determining the friction factor experimentally. The friction factor model was developed for the flat plate test based on the Fanno Line Flow. The comparisons of the friction factor were plotted for smooth surfaces and six-honeycomb surfaces with three-clearances, 6.9 bar to 17.9 bar range of inlet pressures, and 5,000 to 100,000 range of the Reynolds number. The optimum geometries for the maximum friction factor were found as a function of cell width to cell depth and cell width to clearance ratios.

Ha, T. W.↗

A load factor formula

The ultimate test of a load factor formula is experience. The chief advantages of a semi rational formula over arbitrary factors are that it fairs in between points of experience and it differentiates according to variables within a type. Structural failure of an airplane apparently safe according to the formula would call for a specific change in the formula. The best class of airplanes with which to check a load factor formula seems to be those which have experienced structural failure. Table I comprises a list of the airplanes which have experienced failure in flight traceable to the wing structure. The load factor by formula is observed to be greater than the designed strength in each case, without a single exception. Table II comprises the load factor by formula with the designed strength of a number of well-known service types. The formula indicates that by far the majority of these have ample structural strength. One case considered here in deriving a suitable formula is that of a heavy load carrier of large size and practically no reserve power.

Miller, Roy G↗