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At least 235 records · Page 13

Characterizing How Meteorological Forcing Selection and Parameter Uncertainty Influence Community Land Model Version 5 Hydrological Applications in the United States

Despite the increasing use of large-scale Land Surface Models (LSMs) in predicting hydrological responses in extreme conditions, there's a critical gap in understanding the uncertainties in these predictions. This study addresses this gap through a detailed diagnostic evaluation of the uncertainties arising from meteorological forcing selection and model parametrization in hydrological simulations of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5). CLM5 is configured at a spatial scale of about 12-km to simulate runoff processes for 464 headwater watersheds, selected from the Catchment Attributes for Large-Sample Studies (CAMELS) dataset to be representative of physiographic and climatic gradients across the conterminous United States. For each watershed, CLM5 is driven by five commonly used gridded forcing datasets in combination with a large ensemble (> 1200) of key CLM5 hydrologic parameters. Our results suggest that uncertainty in CLM5 runoff simulations resulting from both forcing and parametric sources is markedly higher in arid regions, e.g., Great Plains and Midwest regions. Uncertainty in low flow is dominated by parametric uncertainty, while the selection of meteorological forcing contributes more dominantly to high flow and seasonal flows during fall and spring. Our analysis also demonstrates that the selection of forcing datasets and the metrics used to calibrate CLM5 significantly impact the model’s predictive accuracy in extreme event severity for both floods and droughts. Overall, the results from this study highlight the need to understand and account for forcing and parametric uncertainties in CLM5 simulations, particularly for hazard and risk assessments addressing hydrologic extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Aerosol effective radiative forcing increases Earth’s energy imbalance in recent decades

Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI), a key driver of climate change, has risen markedly over the last two decades. Greenhouse gas forcing, aerosol forcing, and cloud feedback all contribute to this increase. However, the role of aerosol forcing, particularly effective radiative forcing through aerosol-cloud interactions (ERF ACI ), remains highly uncertain and closely intertwined with cloud feedback. Here, we estimate shortwave ERF ACI using satellite observations and show its importance as a contributor to the EEI increase between 2003 and 2023. ERF ACI exhibits a significant increasing trend of 0.33 Wm −2 /decade averaged over oceans between 60°S and 60°N. The increasing trend of ERF ACI stems from a global decline in cloud droplet number concentration driven by decreasing anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is of similar magnitude as the combined instantaneous forcing trend from greenhouse gases and aerosol-radiation interactions. Our results may reduce the gap between the simulated and observed shortwave contribution to EEI trends while implying a weak shortwave cloud feedback. They also suggest a stronger aerosol forcing than the multi-model mean.

Yuan, Tianle [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GS

Photoinduced Electron-Transfer Distance Is Controlled by the Driving Force in Solid-State Organic Donor-Acceptor Systems

Understanding how short-range electron transfer generates photocurrent in organic solar cells and what photochemical driving force is needed to maximize efficiencies has been an immensely difficult problem. Here we show how these questions are intertwined: the driving force controls the average charge-transfer distance, skipping the shortest-range states in the optimal case. Using photoinduced absorption-detected magnetic resonance, we measure average charge-separation distances in dilute donor–acceptor blends as a function of driving force, and compare these with free charge yields measured by time-resolved microwave conductivity. We find that the largest driving forces show the shortest charge-separation distances, explaining their suppressed free-carrier generation. These results support a long-range electron-transfer model, wherein the driving force controls the initial delocalization of the electron–hole pair. The minimum driving force required for efficient charge separation (and minimal voltage losses) is ultimately set by the dielectric constant of the material.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Direct measurement of thermal Knudsen forces in rarefied gas environments

At micro- and nanoscales, momentum transfer between surfaces is influenced by various physical mechanisms, including quantum fluctuations, electromagnetic interactions, electric charges, and the dynamics of (rarefied) gases. Under non-isothermal conditions, rarefied gases give rise to thermal Knudsen forces whose magnitudes strongly depend on the gas species and surface characteristics. Knudsen forces are particularly relevant in nanotechnology, optical manipulation, and aerospace systems, where gas rarefaction occurs due to highly confined geometries, sub-micrometer length scales, and reduced particle densities. Despite their significance, predictive modeling of Knudsen forces is limited by a lack of comprehensive experimental data across diverse materials and surface morphologies. Here, in this work, we present a highly sensitive and adaptable measurement platform capable of directly quantifying Knudsen forces using a suspended, interchangeable micro-cantilever within controlled rarefied helium and nitrogen environments. The system integrates optical fiber interferometry to precisely capture out-of-plane displacements at sub-micrometer resolution, driven by Knudsen forces. From the empirical data, we derive a robust correlation linking the magnitudes of Knudsen forces to energy accommodation coefficients, offering deeper insights into the underlying gas–surface interaction mechanisms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC

Poleward Migration of the Latitude of Maximum Tropical Cyclone Intensity—Forced or Natural?

Abstract Past studies have shown a significant observed poleward trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), especially in the northwest Pacific basin. Given the brevity of the historical record, it remains difficult to separate the forced trend from internal variability of the climate system. A recently developed tropical cyclone downscaling model is used to downscale the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), preindustrial control simulation. It is found that the observed trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific is very unlikely to be caused by internal variability. The same downscaling model is then used to downscale CESM2 simulations under historical forcing. The resulting trend distribution shows a significant poleward migration of tropical cyclone LMI even after regressing out both natural variability and the part of the forced warming pattern that projects onto natural variability. The results indicate that the observed poleward migration of the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific basin is likely to be, at least in part, forced. However, the magnitude of the projected poleward trend in climate models can be significantly modulated by the simulated spatial pattern of ocean warming. This highlights how discrepancies between models and observations, with regard to projected changes to the equatorial zonal sea surface temperature gradient under anthropogenic forcing, can lead to large uncertainties in projected changes to the LMI latitude of tropical cyclones. Significance Statement Observations in the northwest Pacific basin show that the latitude at which tropical cyclones are at their most intense has been trending northward in the recent half century. These changes are important since tropical cyclones could bring hazardous weather to coastal areas that are poorly equipped to handle them. Here, we show that natural variations in Earth’s climate are very unlikely to explain the observed poleward trend in the latitude that tropical cyclone reach their maximum intensity. We find that it is much more likely that the observed trend is forced by human-related emissions, though the spatial pattern of warming in response to greenhouse emissions can have significant impacts on the magnitude of the trend.

Lin, Jonathan

Machine-Learned Force Field Modeling of Metal Organic Frameworks for CO2 Direct Air Capture

To cope with legacy greenhouse gas emissions and to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is funding efforts to develop direct air capture (DAC), a method for removing CO2 directly from air. Metal organic frameworks (MOFs) have been well studied as DAC sorbent materials due to their tunable structural and compositional properties. Thermodynamic simulations using force fields are often used to provide predictions of a material’s performance in many separations. However, these force fields often make assumptions about bonds and the physics of the adsorption process. A new class of force fields called machine-learned force fields (MLFFs) use machine learning to form quantitative relationships between a material’s chemical structure and the forces and energies predicted by more accurate quantum mechanical calculations, such as dispersion-corrected density functional theory (DFT). In this work, models were developed to achieve DFT-level accuracy for the forces and energies associated with MOF flexibility and CO2 adsorption using MLFFs. These methods were parametrized based on thousands of DFT calculations of CO2 in flexible MOFs and used to predict MOF structural properties as well as CO2 adsorption in several MOFs.

Findley, John

Development of the ARM Lagrangian Large-Scale Forcing Data (ARMLAGTRAJ) Value-Added Product Based on the lagtraj Framework

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) large-scale forcing data developed based on the constrained variational analysis (VARANAL) value-added product (VAP) (Zhang and Lin 1997, Zhang et al. 2001, Xie et al. 2004, Tang et al. 2019) has been widely used for single-column models (SCMs), cloud-resolving models (CRMs), and large-eddy simulation models (LESs) to understand and improve physical processes in models. Recently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) ARM user facility conducted several major field campaigns using ship-based moving observational platforms. For example, the Marine ARM GPCI Investigation of Clouds (MAGIC) field campaign focused on the role of subtropical marine-boundary layer (MBL) clouds, and the Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) field campaign aimed to improve understanding of the coupled climate systems in the Arctic. Observations from moving platforms are critical to provide a comprehensive characterization of coupled-system processes associated with all stages of the cloud and/or sea-ice life cycle. Traditional ARM large-scale forcing data have been developed at fixed locations. They need to be extended to include these moving platforms to address data needs for ship-based field campaigns or to support LES modeling in a Lagrangian framework. With these considerations in mind, we develop ARM-type Lagrangian large-scale forcing data sets based on the lagtraj framework (Boeing et al. 2020) with notable enhancements in generating forcings that are more suitable for ARM field campaigns. The lagtraj is a novel tool that generates forcings for LES and SCM simulation in both Lagrangian and Eulerian perspective. This technical report focuses on the major changes we performed on the lagtraj algorithm and provides an overview of the ARM Lagrangian Large-Scale Forcing Data (ARMLAGTRAJ) value-added products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Prescribing the aerosol effective radiative forcing in the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model v1

Aerosol effective radiative forcing critically influences climate projections but remains poorly constrained. Using the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) v1 configuration, we assess the sensitivity of the radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosol changes using a simplified prescribed aerosol scheme (SPA) derived from E3SM v3. Nudged simulations at 3 and 12 km horizontal grid spacings reveal a more negative aerosol forcing than the reference 100 km E3SM v3 whence the SPA properties are derived. The resulting globally averaged aerosol forcing signal is largely due to aerosol–cloud interactions and exhibits little overall resolution sensitivity, while hints of resolution sensitivity appear regionally between the 3 and 12 km runs. While the default SPA scheme overestimates cloud droplet dependence on aerosols, parameterization adjustments in the activation process reconcile forcing estimates with the reference model. Our results demonstrate the ability to use a prescribed aerosol scheme to hold aerosol forcing to a desired strength across resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Manipulation of particles by weak forces

Quantitative relations between various force fields and their effects on the motion of particles of various sizes and physical characteristics were studied. The forces considered were those derived from light, heat, microwaves, electric interactions, magnetic interactions, particulate interactions, and sound. A physical understanding is given of the forces considered as well as formulae which express how the size of the force depends on the physical and electrical properties of the particle. The drift velocity in a viscous fluid is evaluated as a function of initial acceleration and the effects of thermal random motion are considered. A means of selectively sorting or moving particles by choosing a force system and/or environment such that the particle of interest reacts uniquely was developed. The forces considered and a demonstration of how the initial acceleration, drift velocity, and ultimate particle density distribution is affected by particle, input, and environmental parameters are tabulated.

Adler, M. S.

An investigation of a close-coupled canard as a direct side-force generator on a fighter model at Mach numbers from 0.40 to 0.90

The canard panels had 5 deg of dihedral and were deflected differentially or individually over an incidence range from 10 deg to -10 deg and a model angle-of-attack range from -4 deg to 15 deg. Significant side forces were generated in a transonic tunnel by differential and single canard-panel deflections over the Mach number and angle-of-attack ranges. The yawing moment resulting from the forward location of the generated side force would necessitate a vertical tail/rudder trim force which would augment the forebody side force and be of comparable magnitude. Incremental side forces, yawing moments, lift, and pitching moments due to single canard-panel deflections were additive; that is, their sums were essentially the same as the forces and moments produced by differential canard-panel deflections of the same magnitude. Differential and single canard-panel deflections produced negligible rolling moments over the Mach number and angle-of-attack ranges.

Re, R. J.

Effect of nozzle spacing on ground interference forces for a two jet V/STOL aircraft

The effect of nozzle spacing on ground interference forces was investigated for a two jet V/STOL aircraft design. The need for information on the effect of jet spacing arises because of the tradeoff between mechanical complexity, which calls for close spacing, and roll control moments, which call for wider spacing. The ground interference forces on a two jet V/STOL aircraft model were measured for a range of nozzle spacings. Interference forces showed a complicated behavior with nozzle spacing, fuselage geometry, and height above ground. For some conditions a slight change in nozzle spacing resulted in a fourfold change in the interference force from 3% to 12% of the basic jet thrust. An understanding of the observed aircraft force behavior was developed using detailed measurements of the upwash flow properties, along with force and pressure measurements on a series of two dimensional fuselage representations.

Hill, W. G., Jr.

Rapid perceptual adaptation to high gravitoinertial force levels Evidence for context-specific adaptation

Subjects exposed to periodic variations in gravitoinertial force (2-G peak) in parabolic flight maneuvers quickly come to perceive the peak force level as having decreased in intensity. By the end of a 40-parabola flight, the decrease in apparent force is approximately 40%. On successive flight days, the apparent intensity of the force loads seems to decrease as well, indicating a cumulative adaptive effect. None of the subjects reported feeling abnormally 'light' for more than a minute or two after return to 1-G background force levels. The pattern of findings suggests a context-specific adaptation to high-force levels.

Lackner, J. R.

Labyrinth seal forces on a whirling rotor

An experimental investigation of air labyrinth seal forces on a subsynchronously whirling model rotor is described and test results are given for diverging, converging, and straight two-strip seals. The effects of pressure drop, provide basic experimental data needed in the development of design methods for predicting and preventing self-excited whirl of turbine rotors and other machines having labyrinth seals. The total dynamic seal forces on the whirling model rotor are measured accurately by means of an active damping and stiffness system that is adjusted to obtain neutral whirl stability of the model rotor system. In addition, the whirling pressure pattern in the seal annulus is measured for a few test conditions and the corresponding pressure forces on the rotor are compared with the total measured forces. This comparison shows that either radial and axial pressure gradients in the seal annulus or drag forces on the rotor are significant. Comparisons made between the measured seal forces and theoretical results show that present theory is inadequate.

Wright, D. V.

The response of stationary planetary waves to tropospheric forcing

The lower boundary forcing of airflow over topography, and the internal forcing that results from the geographical distribution of diabatic heating, are studied in light of a steady state, linear, quasi-geostrophic model of stationary waves on a sphere. The lower boundary vertical motions forced by airflow over topography depend on whether the horizontal deflection of airflow around topographic features is taken into account, the level of the wind profile at which flow over topography is assumed to take place, and the topographic data set that was used in the forcing formulation. The lower boundary forcing is taken to be given by the observed stationary planetary wave in lower boundary geopotential height, and the internal forcing is computed using the planetary wave propagation equation on the observed wave structure.

Alpert, J. C.

Experimental investigation of lateral forces induced by flow through model labyrinth glands

The lateral forces induced by flow through model labyrinth glands were investigated. Circumferential pressure distributions, lateral forces and stiffness coefficients data obtained are discussed. The force system is represented as a negative spring and a tangential force orthogonal to eccentricity. The magnitude of these forces are dependent on eccentricity, entry swirl, rotor peripheral velocity and seal size. A pressure equalization chamber at midgland tests should in significantly reduced forces and stiffness coefficients.

Leong, Y. M. M. S.

The influence of gravitational body force in meteoritic chondrule and lunar glass formation

The effects of gravitational body force must be considered in the formation of extraterrestrial materials such as meteoritic chondrules and lunar glasses. Solidification experiments conducted in microgravity as well as g values greater than Earth's gravitational force have demonstrated that gravitational force can have profound and sometimes unexpected effects upon the way materials solidify and, therefore, upon their physical and mechanical properties. Solutal, thermal and sedimentation effects differ from those experienced on Earth. Because buoyancy forces are reduced, materials of different densities may remain in close proximity. The spherical morphology of chondrules and many lunar glasses may reflect the tendency for free floating liquids to form spherical droplets in a microgravity environment, a form which minimizes surface energy. Under these conditions, surface energy forces dominate gravity forces. The formation of two common chondrule textures, barred and radiating chondrules, can be explained using observations from glass science.

Budka, P. Z.

Large amplitude forcing of a high speed 2-dimensional jet

The effect of large amplitude forcing on the growth of a high speed two dimensional jet was investigated experimentally. Two forcing techniques were utilized: mass flow oscillations and a mechanical system. The mass flow oscillation tests were conducted at Strouhal numbers from 0.00052 to 0.045, and peak to peak amplitudes up to 50 percent of the mean exit velocity. The exit Mach number was varied in the range 0.15 to 0.8. The corresponding Reynolds numbers were 8,400 and 45,000. The results indicate no significant change of the jet growth rate or centerline velocity decay compared to the undisturbed free jet. The mechanical forcing system consists of two counter rotating hexagonal cylinders located parallel to the span of the nozzle. Forcing frequencies up to 1,500 Hz were tested. Both symmetric and antisymmetric forcing can be implemented. The results for antisymmetric forcing showed a significant (75 percent) increase of the jet growth rate at an exit Mach number of 0.25 and a Strouhal number of 0.019. At higher rotational speeds, the jet deflected laterally. A deflection angle of 39 deg with respect to the centerline was measured at the maximum rotational speed.

Bernal, L.

The effect of power law body forces on a thermally-driven flow between concentric rotating spheres

A numerical study is conducted to determine the effect of power-law body forces on a thermally-driven axisymmetric flow field confined between concentric co-rotating spheres. This study is motivated by Spacelab geophysical fluid-flow experiments, which use an electrostatic force on a dielectric fluid to simulate gravity; this force exhibits a (1/r)sup 5 distribution. Meridional velocity is found to increase when the electrostatic body force is imposed, relative to when the body force is uniform. Correlation among flow fields with uniform, inverse-square, and inverse-quintic force fields is obtained using a modified Grashof number.

Macaraeg, M. G.