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At least 235 records · Page 13
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NASA NTRS2012

Solar Sources of Severe Space Weather

Severe space weather is characterized by intense particle radiation from the Sun and severe geomagnetic storm caused by magnetized solar plasma arriving at Earth. Intense particle radiation is almost always caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) traveling from the Sun at super-Alfvenic speeds leading to fast-mode MHD shocks and particle acceleration by the shocks. When a CME arrives at Earth, it can interact with Earth's magnetopause resulting in solar plasma entry into the magnetosphere and a geomagnetic storm depending on the magnetic structure of the CME. Particle radiation starts affecting geospace as soon as the CMEs leave the Sun and the geospace may be immersed in the radiation for several days. On the other hand, the geomagnetic storm happens only upon arrival of the CME at Earth. The requirements for the production of particles and magnetic storms by CMEs are different in a number of respects: solar source location, CME magnetic structure, conditions in the ambient solar wind, and shock-driving ability of CMEs. Occasionally, intense geomagnetic storms are caused by corotating interaction regions (CIRs) that form in the interplanetary space when the fast solar wind from coronal holes overtakes the slow wind from the quiet regions. CIRs also accelerate particles, but when they reach several AU from the Sun, so their impact on Earth's space environment is not significant. In addition to these plasma effects, solar flares that accompany CMEs also produce excess ionization in the ionosphere causing sudden ionospheric disturbances. This paper highlights these space weather effects using space weather events observed by space and ground based instruments during of solar cycles 23 and 24.

Gopalswamy, N.↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Unknown Hydrogen Exosphere: Space Weather Implications

Recent studies suggest that the hydrogen (H) density in the exosphere and geocorona might differ from previously assumed values by factors as large as 2. We use the SAMI3 (Sami3 is Also a Model of the Ionosphere) and Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere models to evaluate scenarios where the hydrogen density is reduced or enhanced, by a factor of 2, relative to values given by commonly used empirical models. We show that the rate of plasmasphere refilling following a geomagnetic storm varies nearly linearly with the hydrogen density. We also show that the ring current associated with a geomagnetic storm decays more rapidly when H is increased. With respect to these two space weather effects, increased exosphere hydrogen density is associated with reduced threats to space assets during and following a geomagnetic storm.

Krall, J.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Storm-Time Variability of Terrestrial Hydrogen Exosphere: Kinetic Simulation Results

Recent studies of TWINS Lyman-α observations have reported an increase in geocoronal column brightness during geomagnetic storms, indicating enhanced exospheric hydrogen atom density (NH). This suggests a complex role of exospheric neutrals in determining storm-time magnetosphere dynamics and their energy release through charge-exchange processes. We developed a Model for Analyzing Terrestrial Exosphere (MATE) to investigate storm-time exospheric behaviors and their physical drivers. MATE traces test hydrogen atoms backward in time from locations in the exosphere to a nominal exobase altitude of 500 km, employing Newtonian mechanics with gravitational force. The model then calculates the phase-space densities (PSDs) of test hydrogen atoms at the exobase using the Maxwellian distribution with physics-based exobase conditions from the TIMEGCM upper atmosphere model. MATE maps PSDs at the exobase to the exosphere using Liouville’s Theorem under collisionless assumptions and derives NH by integrating the PSDs across velocity space. We conducted MATE simulation before, during, and after a minor geomagnetic storm from 12 to 18 June 2008, and compared the model results with NH estimates from the TWINS geocorona data. MATE reproduces storm-time density enhancements soon after the minimum Dst is reached, matching well with a general trend of TWINS NH estimates. The results suggest that upper atmospheric heating during a geomagnetic storm increases the number of ballistic and escaping hydrogen atoms entering the exosphere from the exobase, thereby boosting NH. However, the magnitude of modeled NH mismatches the TWINS NH estimates. The potential mechanisms of this density discrepancy include the physics excluded in the MATE model — such as neutralneutral collisions, neutral-plasma charge exchange, solar radiation pressure, and photoionization — as well as the higher exobase hydrogen density of TIMEGCM compared to typical empirical values, which will be addressed in future.

Hyunju K Connor↗
NASA NTRS2007

Influence of the Convection Electric Field Models on Predicted Plasmapause Positions During Magnetic Storms

In the present work, we determine how three well documented models of the magnetospheric electric field, and two different mechanisms proposed for the formation of the plasmapause influence the radial distance, the shape and the evolution of the plasmapause during the geomagnetic storms of 28 October 2001 and of 17 April 2002. The convection electric field models considered are: Mcllwain's E51) electric field model, Volland-Stern's model and Weimer's statistical model compiled from low-Earth orbit satellite data. The mechanisms for the formation of the plasmapause to be tested are: (i) the MHD theory where the plasmapause should correspond to the last-closed- equipotential (LCE) or last-closed-streamline (LCS), if the E-field distribution is stationary or time-dependent respectively; (ii) the interchange mechanism where the plasmapause corresponds to streamlines tangent to a Zero-Parallel-Force surface where the field-aligned plasma distribution becomes convectively unstable during enhancements of the E-field intensity in the nightside local time sector. The results of the different time dependent simulations are compared with concomitant EUV observations when available. The plasmatails or plumes observed after both selected geomagnetic storms are predicted in all simulations and for all E-field models. However, their shapes are quite different depending on the E-field models and the mechanisms that are used. Despite the partial success of the simulations to reproduce plumes during magnetic storms and substorms, there remains a long way to go before the detailed structures observed in the EUV observations during periods of geomagnetic activity can be accounted for very precisely by the existing E-field models. Furthermore, it cannot be excluded that the mechanisms currently identified to explain the formation of "Carpenter's knee" during substorm events, will', have to be revised or complemented in the cases of geomagnetic storms.

Pierrard, V.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Solar Cycle Variation on Space Weather

We report on the solar cycle variation of solar eruptions and their space weather consequences during solar cycles 23-25. While the solar activity cycle is primarily expressed in terms of the Sunspot number (SSN), coronal mass ejections (CMEs) provide a different perspective on the solar cycle owing to their origin in sunspot regions as well as other non-spot magnetic regions such as quiescent filament regions. Weak solar activity observed in solar cycle 24 has been found to result in a weak heliospheric state, which backreacted on CME properties. The cycle resulted in mild space weather in that the number of large solar energetic particle events and geomagnetic storms decreased significantly. The occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms and high-energy SEP events was drastically reduced, much more than the reduction in the solar activity. The current status of solar cycle 25 indicates that it will be similar to solar cycle 24 or slightly stronger, which means a mild space weather in this cycle as well. We illustrate this using the data obtained during the rise phase of solar cycle 25 in comparison with the corresponding phases in cycles 23 and 24.

Nat Gopalswamy↗
NASA NTRS2007

Highly Structured Plasma Density and Associated Electric and Magnetic Field Irregularities at Sub-Auroral, Middle, and Low Latitudes in the Topside Ionosphere Observed with the DEMETER and DMSP Satellites

Detailed observations of the plasma structure and irregularities that characterize the topside ionosphere at sub-auroral, middle, and low-latitudes are gathered with probes on the DEMETER and DMSP satellites. In particular, we present DEMETER observations near 700 km altitude that reveal: (1) the electric field irregularities and density depletions at mid-latitudes are remarkably similar to those associated with equatorial spread-F at low latitudes; (2) the mid-latitude density structures contain both depletions and enhancements with scale lengths along the spacecraft trajectory that typically vary from 10's to 100's of km; (3) in some cases, ELF magnetic field irregularities are observed in association with the electric field irregularities on the walls of the plasma density structures and appear to be related to finely-structured spatial currents and/or Alfven waves; (4) during severe geomagnetic storms, broad regions of nightside plasma density structures are typically present, in some instances extending from the equator to the subauroral regions; and (5) intense, broadband electric and magnetic field irregularities are observed at sub-auroral latitudes during geomagnetic storm periods that are typically associated with the trough region. Data from successive DEMETER orbits during storm periods in both the daytime and nighttime illustrate how enhancements of both the ambient plasma density, as well as sub-auroral and mid-latitude density structures, correlate and evolve with changes in the Dst. The DEMETER data are compared with near simultaneous observations gathered by the DMSP satellites near 840 km. The observations are related to theories of sub-auroral and mid-latitude plasma density structuring during geomagnetic storms and penetration electric fields and are highly germane to understanding space weather effects regarding disruption of communication and navigation signals in the near-space environment.

Pfaff, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Intense Equatorial Electrojet and Counter Electrojet caused by the 15 January 2022 Tonga Volcanic Eruption: Space and Ground-based Observations

Abstract Text: We present space and ground-based multi-instrument observations demonstrating the impact of the 2022 Tonga volcanic eruption on dayside equatorial electrodynamics. A strong counter electrojet (CEJ) was observed by Swarm and ground-based magnetometers on 15 January after the Tonga eruption and during the recovery phase of a moderate geomagnetic storm. Swarm also observed an enhanced equatorial electrojet (EEJ) preceding the CEJ in the previous orbit. The observed EEJ and CEJ exhibited complex spatiotemporal variations. We combine them with the Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON) neutral wind measurements to disentangle the potential mechanisms. Our analysis indicates that the geomagnetic storm had minimal impact; instead, a large-scale atmospheric disturbance propagating eastward from the Tonga eruption site was the most likely driver for the observed intensification and directional reversal of the equatorial electrojet. The CEJ was associated with strong eastward zonal winds in the E-region ionosphere, as a direct response to the lower atmosphere forcing. Plain-Language Summary: The Earth's E-region ionosphere (~100-150 km altitude) consists of both ionized and neutral gasses, and the two components are coupled through ion-neutral collisions. The state of this region is closely influenced by neutral atmospheric activities from the lower atmosphere and the variability of the solar drivers. On 15 January 2022, the Tonga volcano had a massive eruption and injected an enormous amount of mass and energy into the atmosphere causing disturbances in the E-region ionosphere or even higher. There was also a moderate geomagnetic storm that started one day before the eruption and ended days after. These conditions offer a unique opportunity to understand the different roles they play in controlling the ionosphere. Coordinated observations including the atmosphere, ionosphere and magnetosphere were made from both space and on the ground during this event. We analyzed the magnetic field and neutral wind data and found that a large-scale atmospheric disturbance generated by the volcano eruption was responsible for the observed directional reversal of the dayside equatorial electric field and electric current.

Guan Le↗
NASA NTRS2017

Application of IRTAM to Support ISS Program Safety

The International Space Station (ISS) orbits near the F-peak of the ionosphere (approximately 400 km altitude). Generally, satellites orbiting at this altitude would have a floating potential (FP) of approximately -1 V due to the electron temperature (Te). However, the ISS has 8 large negatively grounded 160 V solar array wings (SAW) that collect a significant electron current from the ionosphere. This current drives the ISS FP much more negative during insolation and is highly dependent on the electron density (Ne). Also, due to the size of the ISS, magnetic inductance caused by the geomagnetic field produces a delta potential up to 40 V across the truss, possibly producing positive potentials. During Extravehicular Activity (EVA) the negative FP can lead to an arcing hazard when it exceeds -45.5 V, and the positive FP can produce a DC current high enough to stimulate the astronaut's muscles and also cause a hazard. Data collected from the Floating Potential Monitoring Unit (FPMU) have shown that the probability of either of these hazards occurring during times with quiet to moderately disturbed geomagnetic activity is low enough to no longer be considered a risk. However, a study of the ionosphere Ne during severe geomagnetic storm activity has shown that the Ne can be enhanced by a factor of 6 in the ISS orbit. As a result, the ISS Safety Review Panel (SRP) requires that ionospheric conditions be monitored using the FPMU in conjunction with the ISS Plasma Interaction Model (PIM) to determine if a severe geomagnetic storm could result in a plasma environment that could produce a hazard. A 'Real-Time' plasma hazard assessment process was developed to support ISS Program real-time decision making providing constraint relief information for EVAs planning and operations. This process incorporates 'real time' ionospheric conditions, ISS solar arrays' orientation, ISS flight attitude, and where the EVA will be performed on the ISS. This assessment requires real time data that is presently provided by the FPMU including ISS floating potential, along with ionospheric Ne and Te, in order to determine the present environment. Once the present environment conditions are known to be either above, below, or near the current IRI values, the IRI is used to forecast what the environment could become in the event of a severe geomagnetic storm. If the FPMU should fail, the Space Environments team needs another source of data which is utilized to support a short-term forecast for EVAs. The IRI Real-Time Assimilative Mapping (IRTAM) model is an ionospheric model that uses real time measurements from approximately 70 digisondes to produce foF2 and hmF2 global maps in 15 minute cadence. The Boeing Space Environments team has used the IRI coefficients produced in IRTAM to calculate the Ne along the ISS orbital track. The results of the IRTAM model have been compared to FPMU measurements and show excellent agreement (figure 1). IRTAM has been identified as a potential FPMU back-up system will be used as a backup for the FPMU to support the ISS Program following completion of an FPMU/IRTAM validation campaign.

Hartman, William A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

What Properties of CMEs are Most Important for Space Weather?

Severe space weather is characterized by intense particle radiation from the Sun and major geomagnetic storm caused by magnetized solar plasmas arriving at Earth. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are key players in both these aspects. CMEs traveling at super-Alfv nic speeds drive fast-mode MHD shocks that create the high levels of particle radiation. When a CME arrives at Earth, the CME-associated magnetic fields reconnect with Earth s magnetopause fields resulting in solar plasma entry into the magnetosphere and a geomagnetic storm depending on the magnetic structure of the CME. Particle radiation starts affecting geospace as soon as the CMEs leave the Sun and the geospace may be immersed in the radiation for several days. On the other hand, the geomagnetic storm happens only upon CME arrival at Earth. The requirements for the production of particles and magnetic storms by CMEs are different in a number of respects: solar source location, CME magnetic structure, conditions in the ambient solar wind, and shock-driving ability of CMEs. Intense shocks arriving at Earth have additional space weather effects such as sudden impulse that shrinks the magnetosphere often exposing satellites in geosynchronous orbit to the solar wind and energetic storm particle events. This paper highlights these space weather effects using CME observations space and ground based instruments during of solar cycles 23 and 24.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗
NASA NTRS2018

Space-Based Sentinels for Measurement of Infrared Cooling in the Thermosphere for Space Weather Nowcasting

Infrared radiative cooling by nitric oxide (NO) and carbon dioxide (CO2) modulates the thermosphere’s density and thermal response to geomagnetic storms. Satellite tracking and collision avoidance planning require accurate density forecasts during these events. Over the past several years, failed density forecasts have been tied to the onset of rapid and significant cooling due to production of NO and its associated radiative cooling via emission of infrared radiation at 5.3 μm. These results have been diagnosed, after the fact, through analyses of measurements of infrared cooling made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry instrument now in orbit over 16 years on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite. Radiative cooling rates for NO and CO2 have been further shown to be directly correlated with composition and exospheric temperature changes during geomagnetic storms. These results strongly suggest that a network of smallsats observing the infrared radiative cooling of the thermosphere could serve as space weather sentinels. These sentinels would observe and provide radiative cooling rate data in real time to generate nowcasts of density and aerodynamic drag on space vehicles. Currently, radiative cooling is not directly considered in operational space weather forecast models. In addition, recent research has shown that different geomagnetic storm types generate substantially different infrared radiative response, and hence, substantially different thermospheric density response. The ability to identify these storms, and to measure and predict the Earth’s response to them, should enable substantial improvement in thermospheric density forecasts.

Mlynczak, Martin G.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Did Geomagnetic Activity Challenge Electric Power Reliability During Solar Cycle 23? Evidence from the PJM Regional Transmission Organization in North America

During solar cycle 22, a very intense geomagnetic storm on 13 March 1989 contributed to the collapse of the Hydro-Quebec power system in Canada. This event clearly demonstrated that geomagnetic storms have the potential to lead to blackouts. This paper addresses whether geomagnetic activity challenged power system reliability during solar cycle 23. Operations by PJM Interconnection, LLC (hereafter PJM), a regional transmission organization in North America, are examined over the period 1 April 2002 through 30 April 2004. During this time PJM coordinated the movement of wholesale electricity in all or parts of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia in the United States. We examine the relationship between a proxy of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) and a metric of challenged reliability. In this study, GICs are proxied using magnetometer data from a geomagnetic observatory located just outside the PJM control area. The metric of challenged reliability is the incidence of out-of-economic-merit order dispatching due to adverse reactive power conditions. The statistical methods employed make it possible to disentangle the effects of GICs on power system operations from purely terrestrial factors. The results of the analysis indicate that geomagnetic activity can significantly increase the likelihood that the system operator will dispatch generating units based on system stability considerations rather than economic merit.

storms↗
NASA NTRS1963

THE MAIN PHASE OF GREAT MAGNETIC STORMS

Demonstration that the main phase of great geomagnetic storms is composed of two parts, characterized by different decay rates of the ring current field

MAGNETIC STORM↗
NASA NTRS2016

Accurately Characterizing the Importance of Wave-Particle Interactions in Radiation Belt Dynamics: The Pitfalls of Statistical Wave Representations

Wave-particle interactions play a crucial role in energetic particle dynamics in the Earths radiation belts. However, the relative importance of different wave modes in these dynamics is poorly understood. Typically, this is assessed during geomagnetic storms using statistically averaged empirical wave models as a function of geomagnetic activity in advanced radiation belt simulations. However, statistical averages poorly characterize extreme events such as geomagnetic storms in that storm-time ultralow frequency wave power is typically larger than that derived over a solar cycle and Kp is a poor proxy for storm-time wave power.

Murphy, Kyle R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Radial transport of storm time ring current ions

Radial transport of energetic ions for the development of the main phase of geomagnetic storms is investigated with data from the medium energy particle analyzer (MEPA) on the Charge Composition Explorer spacecraft, which monitored protons, helium ions, and the carbon-nitrogen-oxygen group, which is mostly dominated by oxygen ions. From a study of four geomagnetic storms, we show that the flux increase of these ions in the inner ring current region can be accounted for by an inward displacement of the ring current population by 0.5 to 3.5 R(E). There is a general trend that a larger inward displacement occurs at higher L shells than at lower ones. These results are in agreement with previous findings. The radially injected population consists of the prestorm population modified by substorm injections which occur on a much shorter time scale than that for a storm main phase. It is also found that the inward displacement is relatively independent of ion mass and energy, suggesting that the radial transport of these energetic ions is effected primarily by convective motion from a large electric field or by diffusion resulting from magnetic field fluctuations.

Lui, A. T. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Magnetic clouds in the solar wind

Two interplanetary magnetic clouds, characterized by anomalous magnetic field directions and unusually high magnetic field strengths with a scale of the order of 0.25 AU, are identified and described. As the clouds moved past a spacecraft located in the solar wind near Earth, the magnetic field direction changed by rotating approximately 180 deg nearly parallel to a plane which was essentially perpendicular to the ecliptic. The configuration of the magnetic field in the clouds might be that of a tightly wound cylindrical helix or a series of closed circular loops. One of the magnetic clouds was in a cold stream preceded by a shock, and it caused both a geomagnetic storm and a depression in the galactic cosmic ray intensity. No stream, geomagnetic storm, or large cosmic ray decrease was associated with the other magnetic cloud.

Burlaga, L. F.↗