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Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Biosphere Model Development

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy, Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition is conducting research and development on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level nuclear waste. This work includes the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) program which is charged with development of generic deep geologic repository concepts and system performance assessment models. One part of the GDSA framework is the development of a biosphere model capable of assessing doses to potential receptors exposed to radionuclides released from geologic disposal sites. As part of the GDSA framework, a biosphere model compatible with the PFLOTRAN massively parallel subsurface flow and reactive transport code is under development. The PFLOTRAN model provides the radionuclide source term for the biosphere model. The GDSA Biosphere model then assesses the potential movement of radionuclides through the surface biosphere and the subsequent exposure to a human receptor living in the biosphere. The biosphere model includes pathways originating from the groundwater as well as pathways originating from surface water bodies that have a water exchange with a contaminated groundwater body. The pathways for human exposure include consumption of drinking water, irrigated crops, meat animals, aquatic vegetation, and animals, etc.; external exposure from irrigated ground surfaces, surface water bodies, recreational activities, etc.; and inadvertent exposures such as ingestion of contaminated soils or shower water, etc. The GDSA Biosphere model was designed to be flexible and generic in order to accommodate a variety of different sites and climate states. This presentation will present the on the purpose, design, and development progress of the GDSA Biosphere Model.

GDSA, biosphere, repository↗

Natural Gas Drilling near the Underground Nuclear Test Site of Rulison, Colorado - 19571

In 1969, the Project Rulison test was conducted in western Colorado using a nuclear device to stimulate natural gas production by fracturing low-permeability, gas-bearing rock. The presence of radionuclides (specifically tritium) in the produced gas persisted above acceptable levels, and the test was abandoned. Advances in hydrofracturing technology over the past 10-15 years have revolutionized the extraction of hydrocarbons from low-permeability formations, leading to a significant increase of drilling in the Rulison area. Drilling activity nearing the Rulison site has raised concerns that remnant radioactivity might be encountered. The site, now under the care of the US Department of Energy (DOE), is protected by a 16-hectare (40 acre) institutional control boundary (Lot 11) that prohibits drilling or extraction of materials below 1830 meters (6000 feet) within the lot boundary. Drilling within 0.8 kilometer (0.5 mile) of the site requires a hearing before the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission. DOE recommends that gas developers adopt a conservative, staged drilling approach, allowing gas reserves near the Rulison site to be recovered in a manner that minimizes the likelihood of encountering contamination. The staged approach calls for collecting data from wells away from the site before drilling closer. For instance, the wells 1.2 kilometer (0.75 mile) west of the site did not encounter any unexpected geologic conditions and now have 8 years of production without encountering any detonation-related radionuclides. The next set of wells would be 0.8 kilometer (0.5 mile) west of the site. This sequential method drills first at locations with a low probability of encountering contamination and then moves closer. This process protects public safety while allowing the collection of additional data to confirm that contamination has not migrated beyond the 16-hectare (40-acre) institutional control boundary. The staged drilling approach was simulated with a modeling effort that estimates the current extent of contamination and the potential for production-induced contaminant migration to nearby wells. The model incorporates geologic data from nearby wells and was calibrated to production data from both the reentry well production testing (1970-1971) and the wells 1.2 kilometer (0.75 mile) from the site that began producing in 2010. The geologic data include both sand/shale distribution statistics as well as the tendency of hydrofractures to preferentially propagate east and west due to the regional stress field. The model results indicate that it is unlikely that wells near the site would ever encounter site-related radionuclides. (authors)

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Peptide formation in the prebiotic era - Thermal condensation of glycine in fluctuating clay environments

As geologically relevant models of prebiotic environments, systems consisting of clay, water, and amino acids were subjected to cyclic variations in temperature and water content. Fluctuations of both variables produced longer oligopeptides in higher yields than were produced by temperature fluctuations alone. The results suggest that fluctuating environments provided a favorable geological setting in which the rate and extent of chemical evolution would have been determined by the number and frequency of cycles.

Lahav, N.↗

Using Controlled-Source Electromagnetic (CSEM) for CO 2 Storage Monitoring in the North Dakota CarbonSAFE Project

Conference presentation for International Meeting for Applied Geophysics & Energy (IMAGE), September 26 – October 1, 2021, Denver, CO. Geophysical methods are key for characterizing the geologic formations to store CO 2 and monitor the injected CO 2 over time to ensure containment. In the integrated multimeasurement geophysical approach considered for this project, it is expected that the controlled-source electromagnetic (CSEM) method is a strong contributor to mapping the CO 2 movement. A feasibility study of the CSEM method, including 1D and 3D modeling and a field noise test, was conducted to determine its effectiveness in monitoring CO 2 in the Broom Creek and Deadwood Formations. The study results demonstrate that the CSEM method can be used for CO 2 storage monitoring in the study area.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Maximizing oil production from water alternating gas (CO 2 ) injection into residual oil zones: The impact of oil saturation and heterogeneity

Residual oil zones (ROZs) are widespread reservoirs, characterized by oil at residual saturation, either underlying oil fields (brownfield) or lateral (greenfield) to such fields. These reservoirs have the potential to produce volumes of oil sufficiently significant to make appreciable impacts on the US’s oil reserves and associated incidental CO 2 sequestration. The objective of this study is to improve our understanding the impact of heterogeneous and low oil saturations, in brownfield ROZs, on the effectiveness of water alternating gas (WAG) injection strategies. ROZs occur in the Permian Basin and elsewhere, and operators are using CO 2 injection for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in these zones. The consensus model for the formation of ROZs is that they were formed by the effect of faster regional aquifer flow, acting over millions of years. Both the magnitude of oil saturation and the spatial distribution of oil differ from water-flooded main pay zones (MPZs). To explore the most effective injection strategies, we conducted simulations of CO 2 injection into synthetic geologic reservoirs. These simulations focused on injection into reservoirs subject to either man-made waterflooding or long-term natural waterflooding. By exploring the impact of varying: oil saturation; well patterns; reservoir heterogeneity; and permeability anisotropy, we attempt to quantify the factors that most influence the effectiveness of WAG injection. WAG ratios (the ratio of injected water and CO 2 , in reservoir volumes) of interest are those that either minimize the net CO 2 utilization ratios or maximize oil production rates. In general, the most effective WAG ratios for ROZs, are consistently less than those observed undergoing CO 2 injection in the same geologic reservoir models after traditional (man-made) waterflooding. This work demonstrates that most favorable WAG ratios for oil production in ROZs are different from those in traditional MPZs because of oil saturation differences. Therefore, CO 2 injection into both zones or directly copying WAG injection designs from MPZs to ROZs might not maximize oil production.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

What would we miss if we characterized the Moon and Mars with just planetary meteorites, remote mapping, and robotic landers?

Exploration of the Moon and planets began with telescopic studies of their surfaces, continued with orbiting spacecraft and robotic landers, and will culminate with manned exploration and sample return. For the Moon and Mars we also have accidental samples provided by impacts on their surfaces, the lunar and martian meteorites. How much would we know about the lunar surface if we only had lunar meteorites, orbital spacecraft, and robotic exploration, and not the Apollo and Luna returned samples? What does this imply for Mars? With martian meteorites and data from Mariner, Viking, and the future Pathfinder missions, how much could we learn about Mars? The basis of most of our detailed knowledge about the Moon is the Apollo samples. They provide ground truth for the remote mapping, timescales for lunar processes, and samples from the lunar interior. The Moon is the foundation of planetary science and the basis for our interpretation of the other planets. Mars is similar to the Moon in that impact and volcanism are the dominant processes, but Mars' surface has also been affected by wind and water, and hence has much more complex surface geology. Future geochemical or mineralogical mapping of Mars' surface should be able to tell us whether the dominant rock types of the ancient southern highlands are basaltic, anorthositic, granitic, or something else, but will not be able to tell us the detailed mineralogy, geochemistry, or age. Without many more martian meteorites or returned samples we will not know the diversity of martian rocks, and therefore will be limited in our ability to model martian geological evolution.

Lindstrom, M. M.↗

The DeepMIP Contribution to PMIP4: Experimental Design for Model Simulations of the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM (version 1.0)

Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high ( greater than 800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene (approximately 50 Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4(times) CO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP - the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed.

climate models↗

Hydromechanical Modeling of Fault Rupture in Geologic CO 2 Sequestration: A Comparison of Two Failure Criteria

Abstract The large‐scale implementation of geological carbon sequestration has raised concerns about potential fault activation and induced seismicity, which could compromise storage integrity and pose seismic risks. We theoretically compared two failure criteria, Mohr‐Coulomb (MC) and Modified Cam‐Clay criteria (MCC), to assess fault rupture during CO 2 storage. Both criteria characterize fault behavior in a specific stress regime but differ in reducing the complexity of fault rupture to a few key mechanisms. Using a coupled hydromechanical model, we demonstrate that the choice of a failure criterion and the physics of fault weakening associated with these criteria strongly condition fault response to a given fluid injection. MC mainly relates rupture to friction, while MCC relates rupture to fault poro‐plasticity. Our findings highlight that the selection of a failure criterion, being inherently subjective, can significantly alter the predicted fault behavior during CO 2 storage, thereby impacting the reliability of geomechanical risk assessments.

Cao, M. [Energy Geosciences Division Lawrence Berk↗

Digital cartography of Io

A high resolution controlled mosaic of the hemisphere of Io centered on longitude 310 degrees is produced. Digital cartographic techniques were employed. Approximately 80 Voyager 1 clear and blue filter frames were utilized. This mosaic was merged with low-resolution color images. This dataset is compared to the geologic map of this region. Passage of the Voyager spacecraft through the Io plasma torus during acquisition of the highest resolution images exposed the vidicon detectors to ionized radiation, resulting in dark-current buildup on the vidicon. Because the vidicon is scanned from top to bottom, more charge accumulated toward the bottom of the frames, and the additive error increases from top to bottom as a ramp function. This ramp function was removed by using a model. Photometric normalizations were applied using the Minnaert function. An attempt to use Hapke's photometric function revealed that this function does not adequately describe Io's limb darkening at emission angles greater than 80 degrees. In contrast, the Minnaert function accurately describes the limb darkening up to emission angles of about 89 degrees. The improved set of discrete camera angles derived from this effort will be used in conjunction with the space telemetry pointing history file (the IPPS file), corrected on 4 or 12 second intervals to derive a revised time history for the pointing of the Infrared Interferometric Spectrometer (IRIS). For IRIS observations acquired between camera shutterings, the IPPS file can be corrected by linear interpolation, provided that the spacecraft motions were continuous. Image areas corresponding to the fields of view of IRIS spectra acquired between camera shutterings will be extracted from the mosaic to place the IRIS observations and hotspot models into geologic context.

Mcewen, Alfred S.↗

Machine learning-based inversion for acoustic impedance with large synthetic training data: Workflow and data characterization

Where wells are sparse or training data are difficult to label with high-quality wireline-derived impedance logs, machine learning (ML)-based inversion of acoustic impedance typically depends on small training data sets, leading to biased prediction. We have advanced a novel workflow that applies large synthetic seismic training data to reduce facies-related bias. Using a geologically realistic model as the truth model, we randomly select sparse seed wells to perform sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) for impedance models of the same geometry and simulate facies variability. We implement random forest regression on 30 features extracted from the synthetic volume. We observe that more seed wells tend to reduce facies-induced bias by sampling more types of facies, resulting in a better prediction. We then focus on the responses of SGS models to facies changes, the number of seed wells necessary for a useful synthetic model, and how much a synthetic model can help ML-based inversion. Here, we observe that the SGS synthetic training model outperforms well-direct training in general. For modeled clastic shore-zone systems in Miocene Gulf of Mexico, two or more seed wells are necessary for a significant reduction of root-mean-square error and outliners, and improvement of facies imaging. In a field-data test, we apply a similar workflow to quantitatively predict acoustic impedance, which is then converted to a sand-volume map at a high-frequency sequence (10–100 m), revealing detailed facies and sandstone patterns. Such results are valuable in many geologic and engineering applications, such as hydrocarbon and CO 2 reservoir prospecting, reserve estimation, simulation, etc.

3D seismic↗

LYNM PE1 Pre-Experiment A Site Characterization Report

Underground chemical explosive experiments such as LYNM PE1 generate large multiphenomenological datasets, require complex site preparation and build out, and utilize cutting edge models and analysis techniques to analyze and simulate the explosion-induced signals. This wide range of outcomes makes it a necessity to thoroughly characterize the testbed in advance of experiments in a way that complements the wide suite of data being generated. Here, we present a broad overview of the site characterization work and data collection that was conducted before Experiment A, which is the first in a series of three PE1 experiments. This work includes, but is not limited to, geologic mapping, physical sample collection, analysis of material properties, geophysical borehole logging, and in-situ measurements. This information was collected by a large, dedicated team and was used to inform site construction, finalize instrumentation placement, generate Geologic Framework Models, feed pre-experiment predictions, and facilitate post-experiment data analysis

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

LYNM PE1 Pre-Experiment A Site Characterization Report

Underground chemical explosive experiments such as LYNM PE1 generate large multi-phenomenological datasets, require complex site preparation and build out, and utilize cutting edge models and analysis techniques to analyze and simulate the explosion-induced signals. This wide range of outcomes makes it a necessity to thoroughly characterize the testbed in advance of experiments in a way that complements the wide suite of data being generated. Here, we present a broad overview of the site characterization work and data collection that was conducted before Experiment A, which is the first in a series of three PE1 experiments. This work includes, but is not limited to, geologic mapping, physical sample collection, analysis of material properties, geophysical borehole logging, and in-situ measurements. This information was collected by a large, dedicated team and was used to inform site construction, finalize instrumentation placement, generate Geologic Framework Models, feed pre-experiment predictions, and facilitate post-experiment data analysis.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Mountain biodiversity and ecosystem functions: interplay between geology and contemporary environments

Although biodiversity and ecosystem functions are strongly shaped by contemporary environments, such as climate and local biotic and abiotic attributes, relatively little is known about how they depend on long-term geological processes. Here, along a 3000-m elevational gradient with tectonic faults on the Tibetan Plateau (that is, Galongla Mountain in Medog County, China), we study the joint effects of geological and contemporary environments on biological communities, such as the diversity and community composition of plants and soil bacteria, and ecosystem functions. We find that these biological communities and ecosystem functions generally show consistent elevational breakpoints at 2000–2800 m, which coincide with Indus-Yalu suture zone fault and are similar to the elevational breakpoints of soil bacteria on another mountain range 1000 km away. Mean annual temperature, soil pH and moisture are the primary contemporary determinants of biodiversity and ecosystem functions, which support previous findings. However, compared with the models excluding geological processes, inclusion of geological effects, such as parent rock and weathering, increases 67.9 and 35.9% of the explained variations in plant and bacterial communities, respectively. Such inclusion increases 27.6% of the explained variations in ecosystem functions. The geological processes thus provide additional links to ecosystem properties, which are prominent but show divergent effects on biodiversity and ecosystem functions: parent rock and weathering exert considerable direct effects on biodiversity, whereas indirectly influence ecosystem functions via interactions with biodiversity and contemporary environments. Thus, the integration of geological processes with environmental gradients could enhance our understanding of biodiversity and, ultimately, ecosystem functioning across different climatic zones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Continental-pelagic carbonate partitioning and the global carbonate-silicate cycle

A carbonate-silicate geochemical cycle model is developed and used to explore dynamic and climatic consequences of constraints on shallow-water carbonate burial and possible carbon loss to the mantle associated with sea-floor subduction. The model partitions carbonate deposition between shallow-water and deep-water environments and includes carbon fluxes between the mantle and lithosphere. When total lithospheric carbonate mass is constant, there are two stable steady states, one in which the carbonate burial flux is mostly continental and another in which it is mostly pelagic. The continental steady state is characterized by a low metamorphic CO2 flux to the atmosphere and predominantly shallow-water carbonate burial. The pelagic steady state is characterized by a high metamorphic CO2 flux and predominantly deep-water carbonate burial. For reasonable parameter values, when total lithospheric carbonate mass is allowed to vary, the model oscillates between predominantly continental and predominantly pelagic modes. Model results suggest that carbonate deposition patterns established during the Cenozoic may be pushing the Earth system from the continental to the pelagic mode on a time scale of 10(8) yr, with a possible consequent order-of-magnitude increase in the metamorphic CO2 flux to the atmosphere.

NASA Program Exobiology↗

Advanced High-Performance Computational Modeling of the Seismic Response of High-Hazard and/or Nuclear Facilities and Critical Infrastructure at the NNSS

New methods for predicting the amplitude and variability of ground shaking from earthquakes (and explosions) are needed for seismic hazard analysis for buildings, nuclear power plants, and critical infrastructure at the NNSS. We are comparing existing 1-D and new 3-D geophysical methods for estimating the shear-wave velocity structure in the upper 30 meters of the ground surface (Vs30), which plays a major role in ground motion amplification and seismic response of buildings. We evaluate the performance of these methodologies at the U1a Complex at the NNSS and develop simple 1-D and high-resolution 3-D Vs30 models. We then emplace these high-resolution models into a background seismic velocity model. We will collaborate with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to conduct numerical modeling of the ground shaking at the NNSS using their high-performance computing technology and state-of-the-art ground motion simulation methodology. The primary work that was completed in FY 2019 was to acquire the seismic systems and familiarize staff at the NNSS with their use. We also worked on developing a collection plan with the Device Assembly Facility (DAF) at the NNSS, but due to time constraints and other ongoing projects at the DAF, we had to use U1a as a backup. We were able to coordinate the seismic survey, and we will complete the collection of seismic data in FY 2020. Additionally, during FY 2019, we completed the geologic framework model (GFM) for the U1a Complex and modeled the Yucca fault. LLNL worked with us through FY 2019 to prepare the data files for their modeling software and tested the software for reliability. In FY 2020 we will develop the end-to-end capability so that any facility could easily be modeled and the expected shaking from a local earthquake understood. The work in FY 2020 will include building fault models from the GFM and finalizing the velocity model analysis. The final simulations will be run for multiple rupture models, and final assessments will demonstrate the seismic hazard at the U1a Complex.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Hotspot evolution and Venusian tectonic style

Because hotspots represent an important manifestation of heat loss on Venus, their geological evolution is of fundamental importance for any attempt to understand Venusian tectonics. Eistla Regio is an approximately 7500-km-long, moderately elevated region inferred to overlie one or more large mantle upwellings or hotspots. It also contains many shield volcanoes and coronae believed due to the rise of thermal plumes in the mantle. Central Eistla Regio includes two large volcanoes, Sappho and Anala, and several coronae in close proximity. Detailed mapping in this region results in two conclusions of tectonic significance: (1) Sappho and Anala occur near the intersection of two major extensional deformation zones, and (2) the coronae are older than the large volcanoes. Several of the coronae occur as a chain along Guor Linea, one of the major extensional deformation zones. Stratigraphic relationships indicate that the coronae began forming very soon after the emplacement of the widespread regional plains materials. Thus Central Eistla Regio was the site of a swarm of plumes that first formed coronae and then later formed shield volcanoes. The expected result of such a swarm would be thermal thinning of the elastic lithosphere with time. However, model results, geological observations, and gravity data suggest that the change from coronae to shield volcanoes was accompanied by a thickening of the lithosphere with time. This thickening is interpreted to be the result of global cooling of the lithosphere following the most recent episode of near-global resurfacing. The global cooling must have occurred faster than local heating of the lithosphere due to the impingement of thermal plumes.

Mcgill, George E.↗

Incorporating geological structure into sensitivity analysis of subsurface contaminant transport

Simulating subsurface contaminant transport at the kilometer-scale often entails modeling reactive flow and transport within and through complex geologic structures. These structures are typically meshed by hand and as a result geologic structure is usually represented by one or a few deterministically generated geological models for uncertainty studies of flow and transport in the subsurface. Uncertainty in geologic structure can have a significant impact on contaminant transport. In this study, the impact of geologic structure on contaminant tracer transport in a shale formation is investigated for a simplified generic deep geologic repository for permanent disposal of spent nuclear fuel. An open-source modeling framework is used to perform a sensitivity analysis study on transport of two tracers from a generic spent nuclear fuel repository with uncertain location of the interfaces between the stratum of the geologic structure. The automated workflow uses sampled realizations of the geological structural model in addition to uncertain flow parameters in a nested sensitivity analysis. Concentration of the tracers at observation points within, in line with, and downstream of the repository are used as the quantities of interest for determining model sensitivity to input parameters and geological realization. Finally, the results of the study indicate that the location of strata interfaces in the geological structure has a first-order impact on tracer transport in the example shale formation, and that this impact may be greater than that of the uncertain flow parameters.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗