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At least 235 records · Page 13

The Global Geodetic Observing System: Space Geodesy Networks for the Future

Ground-based networks of co-located space geodetic techniques (VLBI, SLR, GNSS. and DORIS) are the basis for the development and maintenance of the International Terrestrial Reference frame (ITRF), which is our metric of reference for measurements of global change, The Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) of the International Association of Geodesy (IAG) has established a task to develop a strategy to design, integrate and maintain the fundamental geodetic network and supporting infrastructure in a sustainable way to satisfy the long-term requirements for the reference frame. The GGOS goal is an origin definition at 1 mm or better and a temporal stability on the order of 0.1 mm/y, with similar numbers for the scale and orientation components. These goals are based on scientific requirements to address sea level rise with confidence, but other applications are not far behind. Recent studies including one by the US National Research Council has strongly stated the need and the urgency for the fundamental space geodesy network. Simulations are underway to examining accuracies for origin, scale and orientation of the resulting ITRF based on various network designs and system performance to determine the optimal global network to achieve this goal. To date these simulations indicate that 24 - 32 co-located stations are adequate to define the reference frame and a more dense GNSS and DORIS network will be required to distribute the reference frame to users anywhere on Earth. Stations in the new global network will require geologically stable sites with good weather, established infrastructure, and local support and personnel. GGOS wil seek groups that are interested in participation. GGOS intends to issues a Call for Participation of groups that would like to contribute in the network implementation and operation. Some examples of integrated stations currently in operation or under development will be presented. We will examine necessary conditions and challenges in designing a co-location station.

Pearlman, Michael↗

Global climate change and US agriculture

Agricultural productivity is expected to be sensitive to global climate change. Models from atmospheric science, plant science, and agricultural economics are linked to explore this sensitivity. Although the results depend on the severity of climate change and the compensating effects of carbon dioxide on crop yields, the simulation suggests that irrigated acreage will expand and regional patterns of U.S. agriculture will shift. The impact of the U.S. economy strongly depends on which climate model is used.

Adams, Richard M.↗

University-Level Teaching of Anthropogenic Global Climate Change (AGCC) via Student Inquiry

This paper reviews university-level efforts to improve understanding of anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) through curricula that enable student scientific inquiry. We examined 152 refereed publications and proceedings from academic conferences and selected 26 cases of inquiry learning that overcome specific challenges to AGCC teaching. This review identifies both the strengths and weaknesses of each of these case studies. It is the first to go beyond examining the impact of specific inquiry instructional approaches to offer a synthesis of cases. We find that inquiry teaching can succeed by concretising scientific processes, providing access to global data and evidence, imparting critical and higher order thinking about AGCC science policy and contextualising learning with places and scientific facts. We recommend educational researchers and scientists collaborate to create and refine curricula that utilise geospatial technologies, climate models and communication technologies to bring students into contact with scientists, climate data and authentic AGCC research processes. Many available science education technologies and curricula also require further research to maximise trade-offs between implementation and training costs and their educational value.

university level↗

Boundary spanning increases knowledge and action on invasive species in a changing climate

Abstract Challenges associated with global change stressors on ecosystems have prompted calls to improve actionable science, including through boundary‐spanning activities, which aim to build connections and communication between researchers and natural resource practitioners. By synthesizing and translating research and practitioner knowledge, boundary‐spanning activities could support proactive, research‐informed conservation practice, but the success of these efforts is rarely evaluated. Using repeat survey data from the Northeast Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (NE RISCC) Management Network, a boundary‐spanning organization, we evaluate whether participating in NE RISCC affected practitioners' knowledge, actions and priorities related to invasive species management under a changing climate. Our survey results suggest that practitioners who participate in NE RISCC have greater knowledge about invasive species and climate change and are incorporating climate change in more ways into their invasive species management. We also found NE RISCC membership affected the perceived usefulness of informational resources, with NE RISCC members more frequently identifying research syntheses and targeted workshops (both are common products used by NE RISCC to translate science into practice and share manager knowledge) as useful compared to non‐members. Practitioners who participate in NE RISCC also identified somewhat different research priorities, with non‐members and short‐term members more frequently identifying range‐shifting neonative species and their impacts on native communities as higher priorities compared to long‐term NE RISCC members. NE RISCC research activities and outreach materials have consistently framed range‐shifting neonative species as comparatively low risk, suggesting that this information has influenced practitioner's perception of risk. Practical implication : Although real‐world impacts of applied ecology are notoriously difficult to quantify, this analysis illustrates that if research results are actively translated, they can affect the knowledge and actions of natural resource practitioners. These impacts illustrate the potential for boundary‐spanning efforts to address other global change challenges to conservation.

Evans, Annette E.↗

Vegetation-induced asymmetric diurnal land surface temperatures changes across global climate zones

Unprecedented global vegetation greening during past decades is well known to affect annual and seasonal land surface temperatures (LST). However, the impact of observed vegetation cover change on diurnal LST across global climatic zones is not well understood. In this study, using global climatic time-series datasets, we investigated the long-term growing season daytime and nighttime LST changes globally and explored associated dominant contributors including vegetation and climate factors including air temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. Results revealed asymmetric growing season mean daytime and nighttime LST warming (0.16 °C/10a and 0.30 °C/10a, respectively) globally from 2003 to 2020, as a result, the diurnal LST range (DLSTR) declined at 0.14 °C/10a. The sensitivity analysis indicated the LST response to changes in LAI, precipitation, and SSRD mainly concentrated during daytime instead of nighttime, however, which showed comparable sensitivities for air temperature. Combining the sensitivities results and the observed LAI and climate trends, we found rising air temperature contributes to 0.24 ± 0.11 °C/10a global daytime LST warming and 0.16 ± 0.07 °C/10a nighttime LST warming, turns to be the dominant contributor to the LST changes. Increased LAI cooled global daytime LST (–0.068 ± 0.096 °C/10a) while warmed nighttime LST (0.064 ± 0.046 °C/10a); hence LAI dominates declines in DLSTR trends (–0.12 ± 0.08 °C/10a), despite some daynight process variations across climate zones. In Boreal regions, reduced DLSTR was due to nighttime warming from LAI increases. In other climatic zones, daytime cooling, and DLSTR decline, was induced by increased LAI. Biophysically, the pathway from air temperature heats the surface through sensible heat and increased downward longwave radiation during day and night, while the pathway from LAI cools the surface by enhancing energy redistribution into latent heat rather than sensible heat during the daytime. These empirical findings of diverse asymmetric responses could help calibrate and improve biophysical models of diurnal surface temperature feedback in response to vegetation cover changes in different climate zones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding Recent Global Hydroclimate Change Using Multivariate Detection and Attribution Techniques and GCM Experiments

The observed slowdown in the rate of global average surface temperature (T) warming during the post-1998 decade (referred to at the time as the “global warming hiatus”) posed a challenge for climate researchers because it was not captured in global climate models projection. Observational and modeling evidence hinted that that leveling of the T trend was linked with the simultaneous appearance of cold surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific that formed a protracted La Niña-like state, a phenomenon known as the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). It was however not clear whether the concurrent equatorial Pacific cooling was a regional response to the rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas levels or anthropogenic aerosols that is not captured by the climate models or whether it was an unrelated, serendipitous manifestation of a natural phenomenon, internal to the climate system. To resolve this issue, we proposed in this project to develop and apply fingerprinting methods to differentiate between the observed climate response to various external forcing agents and the manifestations of internal climate variability. The project also sought to find out if climate models are able to reproduce the change signals detected in key observational phenomena and if they can be used to investigate the underlying processes. As such we examined changes in global hydroclimate variability and in an outstanding example of regional hydroclimate change, namely the multi-decadal 20 th century change in Sahel rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interannual Variability in the Thermal Habitat of Alexandrium catenella in the Bay of Fundy and the Implications of Climate Change

Globally, harmful algal blooms (HABs) are an increasing problem. In the Gulf of Maine and Bay of Fundy, blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella are annually recurrent phenomena. As this region is one of the most rapidly warming areas of the global ocean, an improved understanding of the mechanisms driving the initiation of local A. catenella blooms, their interannual variability and the implications of future climate change is critical to local monitoring strategies and marine resources management. A 27-year (1988–2014) time series of weekly A. catenella cell counts from the Bay of Fundy and concurrent satellite-measured sea surface temperature, freshwater discharge from the St. John River and wind-driven turbulence are compared to assess their relationship to variability in bloom phenology metrics. The mean thermal habitat associated with early detection of A. catenella is 6.5 ± 1.6°C, whereas that of bloom initiation averages 9.2 ± 1.5°C. Both thermal habitats for A. catenella are trending earlier over the study period. Bloom initiations that precede the arrival of the thermal habitat mean (occur in colder water) are associated with higher spring freshwater discharge and are generally weaker blooms. Increased spring freshwater discharge is also associated with earlier bloom initiation and earlier maximum concentration dates. No significant relationship was observed with the strength of wind-driven mixing. Removal of the mean thermal seasonal cycle shows that surface temperature anomalies have a strong negative relationship to the bloom phenology metrics and arrival of thermal habitat: warmer years are linked to earlier arrival of thermal habitats (∼12 days °C–1) and earlier detection and bloom initiation dates (∼33 days °C–1). Using these relationships and present trends in Bay of Fundy surface temperature warming over the period 1982–2019, we project the arrival dates of bloom thermal habitat and bloom phenology metrics out to the middle of this century. Based on current rates of sea surface temperature change, bloom phenology metrics (e.g., bloom initiation, early detection), can be expected to shift 1–2 months earlier in the season by mid-century. Such changes in the phenology of A. catenella blooms will need to be incorporated into both monitoring strategies and forecasting models for the region.

Andre F. Bucci↗

Chapman Conference on the Hydrologic Aspects of Global Climate Change, Lake Chelan, WA, June 12-14, 1990, Selected Papers

The present conference on the hydrological aspects of global climate change discusses land-surface schemes for future climate models, modeling of the land-surface boundary in climate models as a composite of independent vegetation, a land-surface hydrology parameterizaton with subgrid variability for general circulation models, and conceptual aspects of a statistical-dynamical approach to represent landscape subgrid-scale heterogeneities in atmospheric models. Attention is given to the impact of global warming on river runoff, the influence of atmospheric moisture transport on the fresh water balance of the Atlantic drainage basin, a comparison of observations and model simulations of tropospheric water vapor, and the use of weather types to disaggregate the prediction of general circulation models. Topics addressed include the potential response of an Arctic watershed during a period of global warming and the sensitivity of groundwater recharge estimates to climate variability and change.

Lettenmaier, Dennis P.↗

Influence of More Mechanistic Representation of Particle Dry Deposition on 1850–2000 Changes in Global Aerosol Burdens and Radiative Forcing

Robust estimates of historical changes in aerosols are key for accurate constraints on climate sensitivity. Dry deposition is a primary sink of aerosols from the atmosphere. However, most global climate models do not accurately represent observed strong dependencies of dry deposition following turbulent transport on aerosol size. It is unclear whether there is a substantial impact of mischaracterized aerosol deposition velocities on historical aerosol changes. Here we describe improved mechanistic representation of aerosol dry deposition in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global climate model, ModelE, and illustrate the impact on 1850–2000 changes in global aerosol burdens as well as aerosol direct and cloud albedo effects using a set of 1850 and 2000 time slice simulations. We employ two aerosol configurations of ModelE (a “bulk” mass-based configuration and a configuration that more explicitly represents aerosol size distributions, internal mixing, and microphysics) to explore how model structural differences in aerosol representation alter the response to representation of dry deposition. Both configurations show larger historical increases in the global burdens of non-dust aerosols with the new dry deposition scheme, by 11% in the simpler mass-based configuration and 23% in the more complex microphysical configuration. Historical radiative forcing responses, which vary in magnitude from 5% to 12% as well as sign, depend on the aerosol configuration.

aerosol↗

Integration of space and in situ observations to study global climate change

The use of model-based global data sets of atmospheric circulation for studying fundamental dynamical and physical processes is discussed, focusing on limitations of the available model-based data sets. Data from the Global Weather Experiment in 1979 were analyzed by two authorized level IIIb data centers in 1980 and in 1981. The analyses led to difference in data-sparse regions such as the tropics. Study areas which can be addressed by an internally-consistent long-term multivariate data set for the atmospheric circulation are considered, including mean climate, forcing for the ocean models, global hydrological cycle, atmospheric energetics, intraseasonal variability, land surface processes, and structure and variability of vertical velocity, divergence, and diabatic heating. It is concluded that the most comprehensive technique for integrating space and in situ observations to produce this type of data set would be a four-dimensional data assimilation system with a realistic physical model of the type employed in operational numerical weather prediction.

Bengtsson, L.↗

An Overview of the EOS Data Dissemination Systems

The Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) is the primary data system serving the broad-scope of NASA s Earth Observing System (EOS) program and a significant portion of the "heritage" Earth science data. EOSDIS was designed to support the Earth sciences within NASA s Science Mission Directorate (previously the Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) and Mission to Planet Earth). The EOS Program was NASA s contribution to the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) enacted by Congress in 1990 as part of the Global Change Act. ESE s objective was to launch a series of missions to help answer fundamental global change questions such as "How is Earth changing?" and "What are the consequences for life on Earth?" resulting support of this objective, EOSDIS distributes a wide variety of data to a diverse community.

Ramapriyan, H.K.↗

Ontology Engineering in Provenance Enablement for the National Climate Assessment

The National Climate Assessment of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) analyzes and presents the impacts of climate change on the United States. The provenance information in the assessment is important because the assessment findings are of great public and academic concern and are used in policy and decision-making. By applying a use case-driven iterative methodology, we developed information models and ontology to represent the content structure of the recent National Climate Assessment draft report and its associated provenance information. We tested the ontology by using it in pilot systems serving information about instances of chapters, scientific findings, figures, tables, images, datasets, references, people, and organizations, etc. in the draft report, as well as interrelationships among those instances. The results successfully help users trace provenance in the draft report, such as finding all the journal articles from which a figure in the report was derived. The provenance information in our work was maintained in the context of the "Web of Data". In addition to the pilot systems we developed, other tools and services are also able to retrieve and utilize the provenance information. Our work is part of a Global Change Information System coordinated by the USGCRP that will eventually cover provenance information for the entire scope of global change research. Such a system will greatly increase understanding, credibility and trust in the global change research and foster reproducibility of scientific results and conclusions.

Ontology engineering↗

Role of Climate Change in Global Predictions of Future Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols

A unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II is applied to simulate an equilibrium CO2-forced climate in the year 2100 to examine the effects of climate change on global distributions of tropospheric ozone and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols. The year 2100 CO2 concentration as well as the anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors and aerosols/aerosol precursors are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2. Year 2100 global O3 and aerosol burdens predicted with changes in both climate and emissions are generally 5-20% lower than those simulated with changes in emissions alone; as exceptions, the nitrate burden is 38% lower, and the secondary organic aerosol burden is 17% higher. Although the CO2-driven climate change alone is predicted to reduce the global O3 concentrations over or near populated and biomass burning areas because of slower transport, enhanced biogenic hydrocarbon emissions, decomposition of peroxyacetyl nitrate at higher temperatures, and the increase of O3 production by increased water vapor at high NOx levels. The warmer climate influences aerosol burdens by increasing aerosol wet deposition, altering climate-sensitive emissions, and shifting aerosol thermodynamic equilibrium. Climate change affects the estimates of the year 2100 direct radiative forcing as a result of the climate-induced changes in burdens and different climatological conditions; with full gas-aerosol coupling and accounting for ozone and direct radiative forcings by the O2, sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, and organic carbon are predicted to be +0.93, -0.72, -1.0, +1.26, and -0.56 W m(exp -2), respectively, using present-day climate and year 2100 emissions, while they are predicted to be +0.76, -0.72, 0.74, +0.97, and -0.58 W m(exp -2), respectively, with year 2100 climate and emissions.

Liao, Hong↗

Sun and dust versus greenhouse gases - An assessment of their relative roles in global climate change

Many mechanisms, including variations in solar radiation and atmospheric aerosol concentrations, compete with anthropogenic greenhouse gases as causes of global climate change. Comparisons of available data show that solar variability will not counteract greenhouse warming and that future observations will need to be made to quantify the role of tropospheric aerosols, for example.

Hansen, James E.↗

The biosphere as a driver of global atmospheric change

The effects of the biosphere on the evolution of atmospheric oxygen and ozone, and the consequences of that development for global atmospheric change, are discussed. Attention is given to the impact of oxygen and ozone on atmospheric photolysis rates, the effect of oxygen on the biogenic production of nitrous oxide and nitric oxide, and the effects of the evolution of atmospheric oxygen on fires and biomass burning. The influence of the latter on atmospheric processes, particularly the production of methane, carbon dioxide, and carbon monoxide, is considered.

Levine, Joel S.↗

Mycorrhizal associations of temperate forest seedlings mediate rhizodeposition, but not soil carbon storage, under elevated nitrogen availability

Abstract Tree‐mycorrhizal associations are associated with patterns in nitrogen (N) availability and soil organic matter storage; however, we still lack a mechanistic understanding of what tree and fungal traits drive these patterns and how they will respond to global changes in soil N availability. To address this knowledge gap, we investigated how arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM)‐ and ectomycorrhizal (EcM)‐associated seedlings alter rhizodeposition in response to increased seedling inorganic N acquisition. We grew four species each of EcM and AM seedlings from forests of the eastern United States in a continuously 13 C‐labeled atmosphere within an environmentally controlled chamber and subjected to three levels of 15 N‐labeled fertilizer. We traced seedling 15 N uptake from, and 13 C‐labeled inputs (net rhizodeposition) into, root‐excluded or ‐included soil over a 5‐month growing season. N uptake by seedlings was positively related to rhizodeposition for EcM‐ but not AM‐associated seedlings in root‐included soils. Despite this contrast in rhizodeposition, there was no difference in soil C storage between mycorrhizal types over the course of the experiment. Instead root‐inclusive soils lost C, while root‐exclusive soils gained C. Our findings suggest that mycorrhizal associations mediate tree belowground C investment in response to inorganic N availability, but these differences do not affect C storage. Continued soil warming and N deposition under global change will increase soil inorganic N availability and our seedling results indicate this could lead to greater belowground C investment by EcM‐associated trees. This potential for less efficient N uptake by EcM‐trees could contribute to AM‐tree success and a shift toward more AM‐dominated temperate forests.

Fitch, Amelia A.↗

Creating a GIS-Based Decision-Support System

Tilting the Balance: Climate Variability and Water Resource Management in the Southwest, a regional conference hosted by the Pan American Center for Environmental Studies, will be held at The University of Texas at El Paso on March 2-4, 1998. The conference is supported through the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) established by the President in 1989, and codified by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990. The NASA Mission to Planet Earth program is one of the workshops sponsors. The purpose of the regional workshops is to improve understanding of the consequences of global change. This workshop will be focused on issues along the border and the Rio Grande River and thus will bring together stakeholders from Mexico, California, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and Colorado representing federal, state, and local governments; universities and laboratories; industry, agricultural and natural resource managers; and non-governmental organizations. This paper discusses the efforts of the NASA PACES center create a GIS-based decision-support system that can be used to facilitate discussion of the complex issues of resource management within the targeted international region.

Alvarado, Lori↗