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At least 235 records · Page 13

A Strengthened Teleconnection of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation and Tropical Easterly Jet in the Past Decades in E3SMv1

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) is a new global model that can generate a weakened tropical easterly jet (TEJ) during the easterly quasi-biennial oscillation (EQBO) and a strengthened TEJ during the westerly QBO (WQBO), which is referred to as the QBO-TEJ teleconnection. Although the longitudinal structure of the QBO-TEJ teleconnection is different between reanalysis and simulations, we hypothesize that simulations can still provide insights into the observed long-term changes in the QBO-TEJ teleconnection. The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations (AMIP-historical) generate a strengthened trend in the correlation between the QBO and TEJ indices in the period of 1950–2014 as in reanalysis. The comparison of the AMIP-historical and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project coupled historical simulations (coupled-historical) shows that the warming of the Indian Ocean has played a vital role in the strengthened QBO-TEJ teleconnection over the past six decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Proposed reference models for nitrous oxide and methane in the middle atmosphere

Data from the Stratospheric and Mesospheric Sounder (SAMS) on the Nimbus 7 satellite, for the period from Jan. 1979 - Dec. 1981, are used to prepare a reference model for the long-lived trace gases, methane and nitrous oxide, in the stratosphere. The model is presented in tabular form on seventeen pressure surfaces from 20 to 0.1 mb, in 10 degree latitude bins from 50S to 70N, and for each month of the year. The means by which the data quality and interannual variability, and some of the more interesting globally and seasonally variable features of the data are discussed briefly.

Taylor, F. W.↗

Accuracy of Vaisala RS41 and RS92 Upper Tropospheric Humidity Compared to Satellite Hyperspectral Infrared Measurements

Radiosondes are important for calibrating satellite sensors and assessing sounding retrievals. Vaisala RS41 radiosondes have mostly replaced RS92 in the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) and the conventional network. This study assesses RS41 and RS92 upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) accuracy by comparing with Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) upper tropospheric water vapor absorption spectrum measurements. Using single RS41 and RS92 soundings at three GRUAN and DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites and dual RS92/RS41 launches at three additional GRUAN sites, collocated with cloud-free IASI radiances (OBS), we compute Line-by-Line Radiative Transfer Model radiances for radiosonde profiles (CAL). We analyze OBS-CAL differences from 2015 to 2020, for daytime, nighttime, and dusk/dawn separately if data is available, for standard (STD) RS92 and RS41 processing, and RS92 GRUAN Data Processing (GDP; RS41 GDP is in development). We find that daytime RS41 (even without GDP) has ~1% smaller UTH errors than GDP RS92. RS41 may still have a dry bias of 1–1.5% for both daytime and nighttime, and a similar error for nighttime RS92 GDP, while standard RS92 may have a dry bias of 3–4%. These sonde humidity biases are probably upper limits since “cloud-free” scenes could still be cloud contaminated. Radiances computed from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses match better than radiosondes with IASI measurements, perhaps because ECMWF assimilates IASI measurements. Relative differences between RS41 STD and RS92 GDP, or between radiosondes and ECMWF humidity profiles obtained from the radiance analysis, are consistent with their differences obtained directly from the RH measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of Seawater Oxygen Isotopes to Climatic and Tectonic Boundary Conditions in an Early Paleogene Simulation with GISS ModelE-R

An isotope-enabled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GISS ModelE -R) is used to estimate the spatial gradients of the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (delta O-18(sub sw), where delta is the deviation from a known reference material in per mil) during the early Paleogene (45.65 Ma). Understanding the response of delta O-18(sub sw) to changes in climatic and tectonic boundary conditions is important because records of carbonate delta O-18 document changes in hydrology, as well as changes in temperature and global ice -volume. We present results from an early Paleogene configuration of ModelE -R which indicate that spatial gradients of surface ocean delta O-18(sub sw) during this period could have been significantly different to those in the modern ocean. The differences inferred from ModelE -R are sufficient to change early Paleogene sea surface temperature estimates derived from primary carbonate delta O-18 signatures by more than +/-2 C in large areas of the ocean. In the North Atlantic, Indian, and Southern Oceans, the differences in d18Osw inferred from our simulation with ModelE -R are in direct contrast with those from another d18O ]tracing model study which used different, but equally plausible, early Paleogene boundary conditions. The large differences in delta O-18(sub sw) between preindustrial and early Paleogene simulations, and between models, emphasizes the sensitivity of d18Osw to climatic and tectonic boundary conditions. For this reason, absolute estimates of Eocene/ Paleocene temperature derived from carbonate delta O-18 alone are likely to have larger uncertainties than are usually assumed.

Roberts, Christopher D.↗

A Multi-Scale Sampling Strategy for Detecting Physiologically Significant Signals in AVIRIS Imagery

Models of photosynthetic production at ecosystem and global scales require multiple input parameters specifying physical and physiological surface features. While certain physical parameters (e.g., absorbed photosynthetically active radiation) can be derived from current satellite sensors, other physiologically relevant measures (e.g., vegetation type, water status, carboxylation capacity, or photosynthetic light-use efficiency), are not generally directly available from current satellite sensors at the appropriate geographic scale. Consequently, many model parameters must be assumed or derived from independent sources, often at an inappropriate scale. An abundance of ecophysiological studies at the leaf and canopy scales suggests strong physiological control of vegetation-atmosphere CO2 and water vapor fluxes, particularly in evergreen vegetation subjected to diurnal or seasonal stresses. For example hot, dry conditions can lead to stomatal closure, and associated "downregulation" of photosynthetic biochemical processes, a phenomenon often manifested as a "midday photosynthetic depression". A recent study with the revised simple biosphere (SiB2) model demonstrated that photosynthetic downregulation can significantly impact global climate. However, at the global scale, the exact significance of downregulation remains unclear, largely because appropriate physiological measures are generally unavailable at this scale. Clearly, there is a need to develop reliable ways of extracting physiologically relevant information from remote sensing. Narrow-band spectrometers offer many opportunities for deriving physiological parameters needed for ecosystem and global scale photosynthetic models. Experimental studies on the ground at the leaf- to stand-scale have indicated that several narrow-band features can be used to detect plant physiological status. One physiological signal is caused by xanthophyll cycle pigment activity, and is often expressed as the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI). Because the xanthophyll cycle pigments are photoregulatory pigments closely linked to photosynthetic function, this index can be used to derive relative photosynthetic rates. An additional signal with physiological significance is the 970 nm water absorption band, which provides a measure of liquid water content. This feature has been quantified both using a simple 2-band ratio (900/970 nm, here referred to as the "Water Band Index" or WBI;), and using the "continuum removal" method. Current atmospheric correction methods for AVIRIS imagery also obtain quantitative expressions of surface liquid water absorption based on the 970 nm water band and may be comparable to ground-based estimates of water content using this feature. However, physiological interpretations of both the PRI and the WBI are best understood at the leaf and canopy scales, where complications of atmospheric interference and complex stand and landscape features can be minimized, and where experimental manipulations can be readily applied. Currently it is not known whether these physiological indices can be used to derive meaningful physiological information from AVIRIS imagery. In addition to the problem of atmospheric interference, another challenge is that any simple physiological index can be confounded by multiple factors unrelated to physiology, and this problem can become more severe at progressively larger spatial scales. For example, previous work has suggested that both the PRI and the WBI, are strongly correlated with other optical measures of canopy structure (e.g., the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index or green vegetation fraction), indicating a confounding effect of structure on physiological signals at the larger, landscape scale. Furthermore, the normal operating mode of most imaging spectrometers does not allow simultaneous, ground truthing at a level of detail needed for physiological sampling. Additionally, manipulative experiments of physiology are difficult to apply at a geographic scale suitable for comparison with remote imagery, which often works at spatial scales that are several orders of magnitude larger than those typically used for physiological studies. These limitations require the consideration of alternative approaches to validating physiological information derived from AVIRIS data. In this report, we present a multi-scale sampling approach to detecting physiologically significant signals in narrow-band spectra. This approach explores the multi-dimensional data space provided by narrow-band spectrometry, and combines AVIRIS imagery at a large scale, with ground spectral sampling at an intermediate scale, and detailed ecophysiological measurements at a fine scale, to examine seasonally and spatially changing relationships between multiple structural and physiological variables. Examples of this approach are provided by simultaneous sampling of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an index of fractional PAR interception and green vegetation cover, the Water Band Index (WBI, an index of liquid water absorption, and the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI, an index of xanthophyll cycle pigment activity and photosynthetic light-use efficiency. By directly linking changing optical properties sampled on the ground with measurable physiological states, we hope to develop a basis for interpreting similar signals in AVIRIS imagery.

Gamon, John A.↗

Quantifying Carbon Cycle Extremes and Attributing Their Causes Under Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change From 1850 to 2300

The increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mole fraction affects global climate through radiative (trapping longwave radiation) and physiological effects (reduction of plant transpiration). We use the simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1-BGC) forced with Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 to investigate climate-vegetation feedbacks from 1850 to the year 2300. Human-induced land use and land cover change (LULCC), through biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes, alter the climate and modify photosynthetic activity. The changing characteristics of extreme anomalies in photosynthesis, referred to as carbon cycle extremes, increase the uncertainty of terrestrial ecosystems to act as a net carbon sink. However, the role of LULCC in altering carbon cycle extremes under business-as-usual (continuously rising) CO 2 emissions is unknown. Here we show that LULCC magnifies the intensity, frequency, and extent of carbon cycle extremes, resulting in a net reduction in expected photosynthetic activity in the future. We found that large temporally contiguous negative carbon cycle extremes are due to a persistent decrease in soil moisture, which is triggered by declines in precipitation. With LULCC and global warming, vegetation exhibits increased vulnerability to hot and dry environmental conditions, increasing the frequency of fire events and resulting in considerable losses in photosynthetic activity. While most regions show strengthening of negative carbon cycle extremes, a few locations show a weakening effect driven by declining vegetation cover or benign climate conditions for photosynthesis. Increasing hot, dry, and fire-driven carbon cycle extremes are essential for improving carbon cycle modeling and estimation of ecosystem responses to LULCC and rising CO 2 mole fractions. Moreover, large aberrations in vegetation productivity represent potential and growing threats to human lives, wildlife, and food security.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radiative Flux and Forcing Parameterization Error in Aerosol-Free Clear Skies

This article reports on the accuracy in aerosol- and cloud-free conditions of the radiation parameterizations used in climate models. Accuracy is assessed relative to observationally validated reference models for fluxes under present-day conditions and forcing (flux changes) from quadrupled concentrations of carbon dioxide. Agreement among reference models is typically within 1 W/m2, while parameterized calculations are roughly half as accurate in the longwave and even less accurate, and more variable, in the shortwave. Absorption of shortwave radiation is underestimated by most parameterizations in the present day and has relatively large errors in forcing. Error in present-day conditions is essentially unrelated to error in forcing calculations. Recent revisions to parameterizations have reduced error in most cases. A dependence on atmospheric conditions, including integrated water vapor, means that global estimates of parameterization error relevant for the radiative forcing of climate change will require much more ambitious calculations.

Climate↗

Studies of 21st-Century Precipitation Trends Over West Africa

West Africa includes a semi-arid zone between the Sahara Desert and the humid Gulf of Guinea coast, approximately between 10 N and 20 N, which is irrigated by summer monsoon rains. This article refers to the region as the Sahel. Rain-fed agriculture is the primary sustenance for Sahel populations, and severe droughts (in the 1970s and 1980s), therefore, have devastating negative societal impacts. The future frequency of Sahel droughts and the evolution of its hydrological balance are therefore of great interest. The article reviews 10 recent research studies that attempt to discover how climate changes will affect the hydrology of the Sahel throughout the 21st century. All 10 studies rely on atmosphere ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations based on a range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Many of the simulations are contained in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change archives for Assessment Reports #3 and #4. Two of the studies use AOGCM data to drive regional climate models. Seven studies make projections for the first half of the 21st century and eight studies make projections for the second half. Some studies make projections of wetter conditions and some predict more frequent droughts, and each describes the atmospheric processes associated with its prediction. Only one study projects more frequent droughts before 2050, and that is only for continent-wide degradation in vegetation cover. The challenge to correctly simulate Sahel rainfall decadal trends is particularly daunting because multiple physical mechanisms compete to drive the trend upwards or downwards. A variety of model deficiencies, regarding the simulation of one or more of these physical processes, taints models climate change projections. Consequently, no consensus emerges regarding the impact of anticipated greenhouse gas forcing on the hydrology of the Sahel in the second half of the 21st century.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

An Intercomparison of Changes Associated with Earth's Lower Tropospheric Temperature Using Traditional and AMIP-Style Reanalyses

Reanalyses have become an integral tool for evaluating regional and global climate variations, and an important component of this is modifications to the energy budget. Reductions in Arctic Sea ice extent has induced an albedo feedback, causing the Arctic to warm more rapidly than anywhere else in the world, referred to as "Arctic Amplification." This has been demonstrated by observations and numerous reanalyses, including the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). However, the Arctic Amplification signal is non-existent in a ten member ensemble of the MERRA-2 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (M2AMIP) simulations, using the same prescribed climate forcing, including Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and ice. An evaluation of the temperature tendency within the lower troposphere due to radiation, moisture, and dynamics as well as the surface energy budget in MERRA-2 and M2AMIP will demonstrate that despite identical prescribed SSTs and sea ice in both versions, enhanced warming in the Arctic in MERRA-2 is in response to the analysis increment tendency due to temperature observations. Furthermore, the role of boundary conditions, model biases and changes in observing systems on the Arctic Amplification signal will be assessed. Literature on the topic of Arctic Amplification demonstrates that the enhanced warming begins in the mid-1990s. Anomalously warm Arctic SST in the early time period of MERRA-2 can mute the trend in Arctic lower troposphere temperature without the constraint of observations in M2AMIP. Additionally, MERRA-2 uses three distinct datasets of SST and sea ice concentration, which also plays a role.

Arcti↗

Understanding Recent Global Hydroclimate Change Using Multivariate Detection and Attribution Techniques and GCM Experiments

The observed slowdown in the rate of global average surface temperature (T) warming during the post-1998 decade (referred to at the time as the “global warming hiatus”) posed a challenge for climate researchers because it was not captured in global climate models projection. Observational and modeling evidence hinted that that leveling of the T trend was linked with the simultaneous appearance of cold surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific that formed a protracted La Niña-like state, a phenomenon known as the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). It was however not clear whether the concurrent equatorial Pacific cooling was a regional response to the rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas levels or anthropogenic aerosols that is not captured by the climate models or whether it was an unrelated, serendipitous manifestation of a natural phenomenon, internal to the climate system. To resolve this issue, we proposed in this project to develop and apply fingerprinting methods to differentiate between the observed climate response to various external forcing agents and the manifestations of internal climate variability. The project also sought to find out if climate models are able to reproduce the change signals detected in key observational phenomena and if they can be used to investigate the underlying processes. As such we examined changes in global hydroclimate variability and in an outstanding example of regional hydroclimate change, namely the multi-decadal 20 th century change in Sahel rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate Models

Climate models is a very broad topic, so a single volume can only offer a small sampling of relevant research activities. This volume of 14 chapters includes descriptions of a variety of modeling studies for a variety of geographic regions by an international roster of authors. The climate research community generally uses the rubric climate models to refer to organized sets of computer instructions that produce simulations of climate evolution. The code is based on physical relationships that describe the shared variability of meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity, precipitation rate, circulation, radiation fluxes, etc. Three-dimensional climate models are integrated over time in order to compute the temporal and spatial variations of these parameters. Model domains can be global or regional and the horizontal and vertical resolutions of the computational grid vary from model to model. Considering the entire climate system requires accounting for interactions between solar insolation, atmospheric, oceanic and continental processes, the latter including land hydrology and vegetation. Model simulations may concentrate on one or more of these components, but the most sophisticated models will estimate the mutual interactions of all of these environments. Advances in computer technology have prompted investments in more complex model configurations that consider more phenomena interactions than were possible with yesterday s computers. However, not every attempt to add to the computational layers is rewarded by better model performance. Extensive research is required to test and document any advantages gained by greater sophistication in model formulation. One purpose for publishing climate model research results is to present purported advances for evaluation by the scientific community.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

Historical and Future Windstorms in the Northeastern United States

Large-scale windstorms represent an important atmospheric hazard in the Northeastern US (NE) and are associated with substantial socioeconomic losses. Regional simulations performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using lateral boundary conditions from three Earth System Models (ESMs: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and Max Planck Institute (MPI)) are used to quantify possible future changes in windstorm characteristics and/or changes in the parent cyclone types responsible for windstorms. WRF nested within MPI ESM best represents important aspects of historical windstorms and the cyclone types responsible for generating windstorms compared with a reference simulation performed with the ERA-Interim reanalysis for the historical climate. The spatial scale and frequency of the largest windstorms in each simulation defined using the greatest extent of exceedance of local 99.9th percentile wind speeds (U > U999) plus 50-year return period wind speeds (U50,RP) do not exhibit secular trends. Projections of extreme wind speeds and windstorm intensity/frequency/geolocation and dominant parent cyclone type associated with windstorms vary markedly across the simulations. Only the MPI nested simulations indicate statistically significant differences in windstorm spatial scale, frequency and intensity over the NE in the future and historical periods. This model chain, which also exhibits the highest fidelity in the historical climate, yields evidence of future increases in 99.9th percentile 10 m height wind speeds, the frequency of simultaneous U > U999 over a substantial fraction (5–25%) of the NE and the frequency of maximum wind speeds above 22.5 ms−1. These geophysical changes, coupled with a projected doubling of population, leads to a projected tripling of a socioeconomic loss index, and hence risk to human systems, from future windstorms.

Pryor, Sara C. (ORCID:0000000348473440)↗

Terra and Aqua MODIS Design, Radiometry, and Geometry in Support of Land Remote Sensing

The NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) mission includes the construction and launch of two nearly identical Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments. The MODIS proto-flight model (PFM) is onboard the EOS Terra satellite (formerly EOS AM-1) launched on December 18, 1999 and hereafter referred to as Terra MODIS. Flight model-1 (FM1) is onboard the EOS Aqua satellite (formerly EOS PM-1) launched on May 04, 2002 and referred to as Aqua MODIS. MODIS was developed based on the science community s desire to collect multiyear continuous datasets for monitoring changes in the Earth s land, oceans and atmosphere, and the human contributions to these changes. It was designed to measure discrete spectral bands, which includes many used by a number of heritage sensors, and thus extends the heritage datasets to better understand both long- and short-term changes in the global environment (Barnes and Salomonson 1993; Salomonson et al. 2002; Barnes et al. 2002). The MODIS development, launch, and operation were managed by NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, Maryland. The sensors were designed, built, and tested by Raytheon/ Santa Barbara Remote Sensing (SBRS), Goleta, California. Each MODIS instrument offers 36 spectral bands, which span the spectral region from the visible (0.41 m) to long-wave infrared (14.4 m). MODIS collects data at three different nadir spatial resolutions: 0.25, 0.5, and 1 km. Key design specifications, such as spectral bandwidths, typical scene radiances, required signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) or noise equivalent temperature differences (NEDT), and primary applications of each MODIS spectral band are summarized in Table 7.1. These parameters were the basis for the MODIS design. More details on the evolution of the NASA EOS and development of the MODIS instruments are provided in Chap. 1. This chapter focuses on the MODIS sensor design, radiometry, and geometry as they apply to land remote sensing. With near-daily coverage of the Earth's surface, MODIS provides comprehensive measurements that enable scientists and policy makers to better understand and effectively manage the natural resources on both regional and global scales. Terra, the first large multisensor EOS satellite, is operated in a 10:30 am (local equatorial crossing time, descending southwards) polar orbit. Aqua, the second multisensor EOS satellite is operated in a 1:30 pm (local equatorial crossing time, ascending northwards) polar orbit. With complementing morning and afternoon observations, the Terra and Aqua MODIS, together with other sensors housed on both satellites, have greatly improved our understanding of the dynamics of the global environmental system.

Xiong, Xiaoxiong↗

Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

The emissions of reactive gases and aerosols can affect climate through the burdens of ozone, methane and aerosols, having both cooling and warming effects. These species are generally referred to near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) or short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), because of their short atmospheric residence time. The mitigation of these would be attractive for both air quality and climate on a 30-year timescale, provided it is not at the expense of CO2 mitigation. In this study we examine the climate effects of the emissions of NTCFs from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon - BC) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides - NOx, volatile organic compounds VOC, and carbon monoxide - CO). For the aerosols the global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs) are simply time-dependent scaling of the equilibrium radiative forcing, with the GTPs decreasing more rapidly with time than the GWPs. While the aerosol climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region, emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other northern hemisphere regions. On regional basis, the northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions. We also found that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to black carbon emissions from South Asia.

climate forcer↗

Accurate Realization of GPS Vertical Global Reference Frame

The goal of this project is to improve our current understanding of GPS error sources associated with estimates of radial velocities at global scales. An improvement in the accuracy of radial global velocities would have a very positive impact on a large number of geophysical studies of current general interest such as global sea-level and climate change, coastal hazards, glacial isostatic adjustment, atmospheric and oceanic loading, glaciology and ice mass variability, tectonic deformation and volcanic inflation, and geoid variability. A set of GPS error sources relevant to this project are those related to the combination of the positions and velocities of a set of globally distributed stations as determined &om the analysis of GPS data, including possible methods of combining and defining terrestrial reference frames. This is were our research activities during this reporting period have concentrated. During this reporting period, we have researched two topics: (1) The effect of errors on the GPS satellite antenna models (or lack thereof) on global GPS vertical position and velocity estimates; (2) The effect of reference W e definition and practice on estimates of the geocenter variations.

Elosegui, Pedro↗

Global and regional kinematics with GPS

The inherent precision of the doubly differenced phase measurement and the low cost of instrumentation made GPS the space geodetic technique of choice for regional surveys as soon as the constellation reached acceptable geometry in the area of interest: 1985 in western North America, the early 1990's in most of the world. Instrument and site-related errors for horizontal positioning are usually less than 3 mm, so that the dominant source of error is uncertainty in the reference frame defined by the satellites orbits and the tracking stations used to determine them. Prior to about 1992, when the tracking network for most experiments was globally sparse, the number of fiducial sites or the level at which they could be tied to an SLR or VLBI reference frame usually, set the accuracy limit. Recently, with a global network of over 30 stations, the limit is set more often by deficiencies in models for non-gravitational forces acting on the satellites. For regional networks in the northern hemisphere, reference frame errors are currently about 3 parts per billion (ppb) in horizontal position, allowing centimeter-level accuracies over intercontinental distances and less than 1 mm for a 100 km baseline. The accuracy of GPS measurements for monitoring height variations is generally 2-3 times worse than for horizontal motions. As for VLBI, the primary source of error is unmodeled fluctuations in atmospheric water vapor, but both reference frame uncertainties and some instrument errors are more serious for vertical than horizontal measurements. Under good conditions, daily repeatabilities at the level of 10 mm rms were achieved. This paper will summarize the current accuracy of GPS measurements and their implication for the use of SLR to study regional kinematics.

King, Robert W.↗

Assessing Uncertainties in Gridded Emissions: A Case Study for Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide (FFCO2) Emission Data

Fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (FFCO2) are the largest input to the global carbon cycle on a decadal time scale. Because total emissions are assumed to be reasonably well constrained by fuel statistics, FFCO2 often serves as a reference in order to deduce carbon uptake by poorly understood terrestrial and ocean sinks. Conventional atmospheric CO2 flux inversions solve for spatially explicit regional sources and sinks and estimate land and ocean fluxes by subtracting FFCO2. Thus, errors in FFCO2 can propagate into the final inferred flux estimates. Gridded emissions are often based on disaggregation of emissions estimated at national or regional level. Although national and regional total FFCO2 are well known, gridded emission fields are subject to additional uncertainties due to the emission disaggregation. Assessing such uncertainties is often challenging because of the lack of physical measurements for evaluation. We first review difficulties in assessing uncertainties associated with gridded FFCO2 emission data and present several approaches for evaluation of such uncertainties at multiple scales. Given known limitations, inter-emission data differences are often used as a proxy for the uncertainty. The popular approach allows us to characterize differences in emissions, but does not allow us to fully quantify emission disaggregation biases. Our work aims to vicariously evaluate FFCO2 emission data using atmospheric models and measurements. We show a global simulation experiment where uncertainty estimates are propagated as an atmospheric tracer (uncertainty tracer) alongside CO2 in NASA's GEOS model and discuss implications of FFCO2 uncertainties in the context of flux inversions. We also demonstrate the use of high resolution urban CO2 simulations as a tool for objectively evaluating FFCO2 data over intense emission regions. Though this study focuses on FFCO2 emission data, the outcome of this study could also help improve the knowledge of similar gridded emissions data for non-CO2 compounds with similar emission characteristics.

FFCO↗

Thermal Structure and Dynamics of Saturn's Northern Springtime Disturbance

This article combined several infrared datasets to study the vertical properties of Saturn's northern springtime storm. Spectroscopic observations of Saturn's northern hemisphere at 0.5 and 2.5 / cm spectral resolution were provided by the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS, 17). These were supplemented with narrow-band filtered imaging from the ESO Very Large Telescope VISIR instrument (16) to provide a global spatial context for the Cassini spectroscopy. Finally, nightside imaging from the Cassini Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS, 22) provided a glimpse of the undulating cloud activity in the eastern branch of the disturbance. Each of these datasets, and the methods used to reduce and analyse them, will be described in detail below. Spatial maps of atmospheric temperatures, aerosol opacity and gaseous distributions are derived from infrared spectroscopy using a suite of radiative transfer and optimal estimation retrieval tools developed at the University of Oxford, known collectively as Nemesis (23). Synthetic spectra created from a reference atmospheric model for Saturn and appropriate sources of spectroscopic line data (6, 24) are convolved with the instrument function for each dataset. Atmospheric properties are then iteratively adjusted until the measurements are accurately reproduced with physically-realistic temperatures, compositions and cloud opacities.

Fletcher, Leigh N.↗