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At least 235 records · Page 13
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NASA NTRS2023

The Faraday Effect Tracker of Coronal and Heliospheric Structure (FETCH) Instrument

There continue to be open questions regarding the solar wind and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). For example: how do magnetic fields within CMEs and corotating/stream interaction regions (CIRs/SIRs) evolve in the inner heliosphere? What is the radially distributed magnetic profile of shock-driving CMEs? What is the internal magnetic structure of CMEs that cause magnetic storms? It is clear that these questions involve the magnetic configurations of solar wind and transient interplanetary plasma structures, for which we have limited knowledge. In order to better understand the origin of the magnetic field variability in steady-state structures and transient events, it is necessary to probe the magnetic field in Earth-directed structures/disturbances. This is the goal of the Multiview Observatory for Solar Terrestrial Science (MOST) mission (Gopalswamy et al., 2022). For MOST to answer the aforementioned questions, we propose the instrument concept of the Faraday Effect Tracker of Coronal and Heliospheric structures (FETCH), a simultaneous quad-line-of-sight polarization radio remote-sensing instrument. With FETCH, spacecraft radio beams passing through the Sun–Earth line offer the possibility of obtaining information of plasma conditions via analysis of radio propagation effects such as Faraday rotation and wave dispersion, which provide information of the magnetic field and total electron content (TEC). This is the goal of the FETCH instrument, one of ten instruments proposed to be hosted on the MOST mission. The MOST mission will provide an unprecedented opportunity to achieve NASA’s heliophysics science goal to “explore and characterize the physical processes in the space environment from the Sun” (Gopalswamy et al., 2022).

Solar corona↗
NASA NTRS2022

Frequency Agile Solar Radiotelescope

The Frequency Agile Solar Radiotelescope (FASR) has been strongly endorsed as a top community priority by both Astronomy & Astrophysics Decadal Surveys and Solar & Space Physics Decadal Surveys in the past two decades. Although it was developed to a high state of readiness in previous years (it went through a CATE analysis and was declared “doable now”), the NSF has not had the funding mechanisms in place to fund this mid-scale program. Now it does, and the community must seize this opportunity to modernize the FASR design and build the instrument in this decade. The concept and its science potential have been abundantly proven by the pathfinding Expanded Owens Valley Solar Array (EOVSA), which has demonstrated a small subset of FASR’s key capabilities such as dynamically measuring the evolving magnetic field in eruptive flares, the temporal and spatial evolution of the electron energy distribution in flares, and the extensive coupling among dynamic components (flare, flux rope, current sheet). The FASR concept, which is orders of magnitude more powerful than EOVSA, is low-risk and extremely high reward, exploiting a fundamentally new research domain in solar and space weather physics. Utilizing dynamic broadband imaging spectropolarimetry at radio wavelengths, with its unique sensitivity to coronal magnetic fields and to both thermal plasma and nonthermal electrons from large flares to extremely weak transients, the ground-based FASR will make synoptic measurements of the coronal magnetic field and map emissions from the chromosphere to the middle corona in 3D. With its high spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution, as well as its superior imaging fidelity and dynamic range, FASR is poised to provide a system-wide perspective on myriad coupled phenomena. FASR will be a highly complementary and synergistic component of solar and heliospheric observing capabilities that is critically needed to support the next generation of solar science.

Dale E. Gary↗
NASA NTRS1983

Corotating pressure waves without streams in the solar wind

Voyager 1 and 2 magnetic field and plasma data are presented which demonstrate the existence of large scale, corotating, non-linear pressure waves between 2 AU and 4 AU that are not accompanied by fast streams. The pressure waves are presumed to be generated by corotating streams near the Sun. For two of the three pressure waves that are discussed, the absence of a stream is probably a real, physical effect, viz., a consequence of deceleration of the stream by the associated compression wave. For the third pressure wave, the apparent absence of a stream may be a geometrical effect; it is likely that the stream was at latitudes just above those of the spacecraft, while the associated shocks and compression wave extended over a broader range of latitudes so that they could be observed by the spacecraft. It is suggested that the development of large-scale non-linear pressure waves at the expense of the kinetic energy of streams produces a qualitative change in the solar wind in the outer heliosphere. Within a few AU the quasi-stationary solar wind structure is determined by corotating streams whose structure is determined by the boundary conditions near the Sun.

Burlaga, L. F.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Corotating pressure waves without fast streams in the solar wind

Voyager 1 and 2 magnetic field and plasma data are presented which demonstrate the existence of large scale, corotating, non-linear pressure waves between 2 AU and 4 AU that are not accompanied by fast streams. The pressure waves are presumed to be generated by corotating streams near the sun. For two of the three pressure waves that are discussed, the absence of a stream is probably a real, physical effect, viz., a consequence of deceleration of the stream by the associated compression wave. For the third pressure wave, the apparent absence of a stream may be a geometrical effect; it is likely that the stream was at latitudes just above those of the spacecraft, while the associated shocks and compression wave extended over a broader range of latitudes so that they could be observed by the spacecraft. It is suggested that the development of large-scale non-linear pressure waves at the expense of the kinetic energy of streams produces a qualitative change in the solar wind in the outer heliosphere. Within a few AU the quasi-stationary solar wind structure is determined by corotating streams whose structure is determined by the boundary conditions near the sun. Previously announced in STAR as N83-19694

Burlaga, L. F.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Particle Acceleration at the Sun and in the Heliosphere

Energetic particles are accelerated in rich profusion at sites throughout the heliosphere. They come from solar flares in the low corona, from shock waves driven outward by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), from planetary magnetospheres and bow shocks. They come from corotating interaction regions (CIRs) produced by high-speed streams in the solar wind, and from the heliospheric termination shock at the outer edge of the heliospheric cavity. We sample all these populations near Earth, but can distinguish them readily by their element and isotope abundances, ionization states, energy spectra, angular distributions and time behavior. Remote spacecraft have probed the spatial distributions of the particles and examined new sources in situ. Most acceleration sources can be "seen" only by direct observation of the particles; few photons are produced at these sites. Wave-particle interactions are an essential feature in acceleration sources and, for shock acceleration, new evidence of energetic-proton-generated waves has come from abundance variations and from local cross-field scattering. Element abundances often tell us the physics the source plasma itself, prior to acceleration. By comparing different populations, we learn more about the sources, and about the physics of acceleration and transport, than we can possibly learn from one source alone.

Reames, Donald V.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Correlation of Coronal Plasma Properties and Solar Magnetic Field in a Decaying Active Region

We present the analysis of a decaying active region observed by the EUV Imaging Spectrometer on Hinode during 2009 December 7-11. We investigated the temporal evolution of its structure exhibited by plasma at temperatures from 300,000 to 2.8 million degrees, and derived the electron density, differential emission measure, effective electron temperature, and elemental abundance ratios of Si/S and Fe/S (as a measure of the First Ionization Potential (FIP) Effect). We compared these coronal properties to the temporal evolution of the photospheric magnetic field strength obtained from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager magnetograms. We find that, while these coronal properties all decreased with time during this decay phase, the largest change was at plasma above 1.5 million degrees. The photospheric magnetic field strength also decreased with time but mainly for field strengths lower than about 70 Gauss. The effective electron temperature and the FIP bias seem to reach a basal state (at 1.5 x 10(exp 6) K and 1.5, respectively) into the quiet Sun when the mean photospheric magnetic field (excluding all areas <10 G) weakened to below 35 G, while the electron density continued to decrease with the weakening field. These physical properties are all positively correlated with each other and the correlation is the strongest in the high-temperature plasma. Such correlation properties should be considered in the quest for our understanding of how the corona is heated. The variations in the elemental abundance should especially be considered together with the electron temperature and density.

Sun: abundances↗
NASA NTRS2005

Heliophysics: The New Science of the Sun-Solar System Connection. Recommended Roadmap for Science and Technology 2005-2035

This is a Roadmap to understanding the environment of our Earth, from its life-sustaining Sun out past the frontiers of the solar system. A collection of spacecraft now patrols this space, revealing not a placid star and isolated planets, but an immense, dynamic, interconnected system within which our home planet is embedded and through which space explorers must journey. These spacecraft already form a great observatory with which the Heliophysics program can study the Sun, the heliosphere, the Earth, and other planetary environments as elements of a system--one that contains dynamic space weather and evolves in response to solar, planetary, and interstellar variability. NASA continually evolves the Heliophysics Great Observatory by adding new missions and instruments in order to answer the challenging questions confronting us now and in the future as humans explore the solar system. The three heliophysics science objectives: opening the frontier to space environment prediction; understanding the nature of our home in space, and safeguarding the journey of exploration, require sustained research programs that depend on combining new data, theory, analysis, simulation, and modeling. Our program pursues a deeper understanding of the fundamental physical processes that underlie the exotic phenomena of space.

Heliophysics↗
NASA NTRS2010

Role of the Russell-McPherron Effect in the Acceleration of Relativistic Electrons

While it is well known that high fluxes of relativistic electrons in the Earth's radiation belts are associated with high-speed solar wind and its heightened geoeffectiveness,less known is the fact that the Russell McPherron(R M) effect strongly controls whether or not a given high-speed stream is geoffective. To test whether it then follows that the R M effect also strongly controls fluxes of relativistic electrons, we perform a superposed epoch analysis across corotating interaction regions (CIR) keyed on the interfaces between slow and fast wind. A total of 394 stream interfaces were identified in the years 1994-2006. Equinoctial interfaces were separated into four classes based on the R-M effect,that is, whether the solar wind on either side of the interface was either(geo)effective (E) or ineffective (I) depending on season and the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Four classes of interface identified as II, IE, EI,and EE are possible. The classes IE and EI correspond to CIRs with polarity changes indicating passage through the heliospheric current sheet. To characterize the behavior of solar wind and magnetospheric variables, we produced maps of dynamic cumulative probability distribution functions (cdfs) as a function of time over 10-day intervals centered on the interfaces. These reveal that effective high-speed streams have geomagnetic activity nearly twice as strong as ineffective streams and electron fluxes a factor of 12 higher. In addition they show that an effective low-speed stream increases the flux of relativistic electrons before the interface so that an effective to ineffective transition results in lower fluxes after the interface.We conclude that the R-M effect plays a major role in organizing and sustaining a sequence of physical processes responsible for the acceleration of relativistic electrons.

McPherron, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Polar Gateways Arctic Circle Sunrise 2008 Conference at the Top of the World

The Polar Gateways conference was hosted during January 23-29, 2008, the first week of polar sunrise at Barrow, Alaska, at the new Barrow Arctic Research Center of the Barrow Arctic Science consortium (BASC). The dawn week of polar day, the highly variable low temperatures, and the ice-covered shore tundra and adjacent sea ice conditions provided an appropriate locale for a conference dedicated in the spirit of the International Polar and Heliophysical Years 2007-2009 to the educational exploration of polar and icy world science of Earth and the solar system. The many scientific, educational, and cultural interactions with the local community of four thousand residents, sixty percent native Inupiat Eskimo, further provided an unforgettable experience of what life might be someday be like on other remote polar and icy worlds to be explored and eventually inhabited. Over one hundred active participants, more than half participating remotely, contributed science presentations and educational activities during this unique circumpolar and very "green" conference. Most remote contributions came via videoconference from the Swedish Institute of Space Physics (IRF) at Kisuna, Sweden, the EISCAT Svalbard Radar Facility at Spitzbergen, Norway, the University of Alaska at Fairbanks, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the University of California at Berkeley, and the University of Arizona. A few contributors participated via teleconference, including one from the Polar Geophysical Institute at Apatity in Russia. These active contributions spanned up to thirteen time zones (Alaska to Russia) at various tirnes during the conference. Primary videoconferencing support between Barrow and other sites was ably provided by the University of Alaska at Fairbanks, and local operators at each remote site collectively made this conference possible. Science presentations spanned the solar system from the polar Sun and heliospheric environment to Earth, Moon, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, the Kuiper Belt, and the solar wind termination shock now crossed by both Voyager spacecraft. Barrow participants experienced look and feel of icy worlds like Europa by going "on the ice" during snowmobile expeditions to the near-shore sea ice and Point Barrow. Extensive educational outreach activities were conducted with the local Barrow township and North Slope Borough communities, partly through several interviews with local host Earl Finkler on Barrow's KBRW Radio, and through the NASA Digital Learning Network (DLN) "live from the top of the world" at Barrow. The Goddard robotic rover "Nunuq of the North" became a local celebrity. The complete science program and photo library, eventually also including video recordings of all main presentations, will be available at the new polargateways2008.gsfc.nasa.gov web site (old version: polargateways2008.org) with links to educational materials from the conference already accessible at sunearthday.nasa.gov/polarsunrise.

Cooper, John F.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Space Weather Modeling Services at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the Rapid Prototyping Centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires close collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide a description of the current CCMC status, discuss current plans, research and development accomplishments and goals, and describe the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate. Special emphasis will be on solar and heliospheric models currently residing at CCMC, and on plans for validation and verification.

Hesse, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2023

Heliocentric Distance and Solar Activity Dependence of Sustained Quasi-radial Interplanetary Magnetic Field Occurrence

Planets close to their stars experience an interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) that is dominantly quasi-radial. Our solar system serves as a laboratory to study how the occurrence of quasi-radial IMF varies away from the star and under different stellar activities. Furthermore, on time and spatial scales relevant to magnetospheric physics, solar wind variability prevails in the form of structures generated both at the Sun and locally in the interplanetary space. The stationary Parker spiral model only approximates the large-scale structure of the IMF. Deviations from the Parker spiral often result in strongly radial magnetic fields that give rise to kinetic foreshock turbulence, which in turn can impact planetary magnetospheres. The relative significance of this type of interaction can be estimated statistically based on the occurrence rate of cases where the IMF is directed along the radial direction, leading to the entire day-side magnetosphere being downstream of the ion foreshock. We use observations covering radial distances from 0.1 to 10 au and more than 2 solar cycles to quantify the prevalence of radial IMFs throughout the heliosphere. Near Earth's orbit, it is found that the occurrence rates of quasi-radial and southward IMF orientations are similar, and that the Pearson correlation coefficient is ${{ \mathcal R }}_{{xy}}\sim -0.7$ calculated between quasi-radial IMF occurrence rate and solar activity. A negative correlation is demonstrated for radial distances extending to at least Mars but not to Saturn.

Brandon L Burkholder↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Eruption of a Magnetic Flux Rope Observed By Solar Orbiter and Parker Solar Probe

Magnetic flux ropes are a key component of coronal mass ejections, forming the core of these eruptive phenomena. However, determining whether a flux rope is present prior to eruption onset and, if so, the rope’s handedness and the number of turns that any helical field lines make is difficult without magnetic field modelling or in-situ detection of the flux rope. We present two distinct observations of plasma flows along a filament channel on 4 and 5 September 2022 made using the Solar Orbiter spacecraft. Each plasma flow exhibited helical motions in a right-handed sense as the plasma moved from the source active region across the solar disk to the quiet Sun, suggesting that the magnetic configuration of the filament channel contains a flux rope with positive chirality and at least one turn. The length and velocity of the plasma flow increased from the first to the second observation, suggesting evolution of the flux rope, with the flux rope subsequently erupting within ∼5 hours of the second plasma flow. The erupting flux rope then passed over the Parker Solar Probe spacecraft during its Encounter 13, enabling in-situ diagnostics of the structure. Although complex and consistent with the flux rope erupting from underneath the heliospheric current sheet, the in-situ measurements support the inference of a right-handed flux rope from remote-sensing observations. These observations provide a unique insight into the eruption and evolution of a magnetic flux rope near the Sun.

Dynamics↗
NASA NTRS2005

Space Weather Modeling at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the rapid prototyping centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires dose collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, as well as distributed computing facilities provided by the US Air Force. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide updates on CCMC status, on current plans, research and development accomplishments and goals, and on the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate. Special emphasis will be on solar and heliospheric models currently residing at CCMC, and on plans for validation and verification.

Hesse M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Measurements of the Magnetic Field of the Upper Chromosphere with Polarimetry

A major remaining challenge for heliophysics is to decipher the magnetic structure of the chromosphere. The chromosphere is the critical interface between the Sun's photosphere and corona: it contains more mass than the entire interplanetary heliosphere, requires a heating rate that is larger than that of the corona, and mediates all the energy driving the solar wind, solar atmospheric heating and solar eruptions. While measurements of the magnetic field in the photosphere are routine, the chromosphere poses several extra challenges. The magnetically sensitive lines formed in the upper chromosphere are in the ultraviolet, so space-based observations are required. The lines are often formed over a range of heights, sampling different plasma which complicates the inversion process. These lines are sensitive to the magnetic field via polarized light that is created or modified through the Hanle and Zeeman effects. There are a few observations of these lines, and a significant challenge remains in extracting the magnetic field from the polarization measurements, as detailed model atmospheres with advanced radiative transfer physics are needed. Real progress is obtained by a simultaneous improvement in both the observational side and the modeling side. We present information on the CLASP (Chromospheric LAyer Spectro-Polarimeter) sounding rocket program, and future prospects for these types of measurements.

Solar; Chromosphere; Polarization↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Bastille Day Magnetic Clouds and Upstream Shocks: Near Earth Interplanetary Observations

The energetic charged particle, interplanetary magnetic field, and plasma characteristics of the 'Bastille Day' shock and ejecta/magnetic cloud events at 1 AU occurring over the days 14-16 July 2000 are described. Profiles of MeV (WIND/LEMT) energetic ions help to organize the overall sequence of events from the solar source to 1 AU. Stressed are analyses of an outstanding magnetic cloud (MC2) starting late on 15 July and its upstream shock about 4 hours earlier in WIND magnetic field and plasma data. Also analyzed is a less certain, but likely, magnetic cloud (MC1) occurring early on 15 July; this was separated from MC2 by its upstream shock and many heliospheric current sheet (HCS) crossings. Other HCS crossings occurred throughout the 3-day period. Overall this dramatic series of interplanetary events caused a large multi-phase magnetic storm with min Dst lower than -300 nT. The very fast solar wind speed (greater than or equal to 1100 km/s) in and around the front of MC2 (for near average densities) was responsible for a very high solar wind ram pressure driving in the front of the magnetosphere to geocentric distances estimated to be as low as approx. 5 R(sub E), much lower than the geosynchronous orbit radius. This was consistent with magnetic field observations from two GOES satellites which indicated they were in the magnetosheath for extended times. A static force free field model is used to fit the two magnetic cloud profiles providing estimates of the clouds' physical and geometrical properties. MC2 was much larger than MCI, but their axes were nearly antiparallel, and their magnetic fields had the same left-handed helicity. MC2's axis and its upstream shock normal were very close to being perpendicular to each other, as might be expected if the cloud were driving the shock at the time of observation. The estimated axial magnetic flux carried by MC2 was 52 x 10(exp 20) Mx, which is about 5 times the typical magnetic flux estimated for other magnetic clouds in the WIND data over its first 4 years and is 17 times the flux of MC1. This large flux is due to both the strong axially-directed field of MC2 (46.8 nT on the axis) and the large radius (R(sub 0) = 0.189 AU) of the flux tube. MC2's average speed is consistent with the expected transit time from a halo-CME to which it is apparently related.

Lepping, R. P.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Search for fine scale structures in high latitude solar wind

About 25 years ago, E. Parker suggested that, as a consequence of the inhomogeneous structure of the corona, the solar wind might consist of adjacent structures with different physical conditions. Since that suggestion was made, the solar wind plasma characteristics have been measured in situ through many experiments, but little has been done to check whether the solar wind shows any evidence for fine scale structures, and, in the affirmative, how far from the Sun these structures persist. A previous work on this subject, by Thieme, Marsch and Schwenn (1990), based on Helios data, lead these authors to claim that the solar wind, between 0.3 and 1 AU, is inhomogeneous on a scale consistent with the hypothesis that the plume-interplume plasmas, at those distances, still retain their identity. In this work we present preliminary results from an investigation of the solar wind fine structure from Ulysses high latitude observations. To this end, we have analyzed data over several months, during 1994, at times well after Ulysses's last encounter with the Heliospheric Current Sheet, when the spacecraft was at latitudes above 50 degrees. These data refer to high speed wind coming from southern polar coronal holes and are best suited for plume-interplume identification. We have performed a power spectra analysis of typical plasma parameters, to test whether the wind plasma consist of two distinct plasma populations. We also examined data to check whether there is any evidence for an horizontal pressure balance over the hypothesized distinct structures. Our results are discussed and compared with previous findings.

Livi, S.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Magnetic Characteristics of Active Region Heating Observed with TRACE, SOHO/EIT, and Yohkoh/SXT

Over the past several years, we have reported results from studies that have compared the magnetic structure and heating of the transition region and corona (both in active regions and in the quiet Sun) by combining X-ray and EUV images from Yohkoh and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) with photospheric magnetograms from ground-based observatories. Our findings have led us to the hypothesis that most heating throughout the corona is driven from near and below the base of the corona by eruptive microflares occurring in compact low-lying "core magnetic fields (i.e., fields rooted along and closely enveloping polarity inversion lines in the photospheric magnetic flux). We now extend these studies, comparing sequences of UV images from Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) with longitudinal magnetograms from Kitt Peak and vector magnetograms from MUSIC. These comparisons confirm the previous results regarding the importance of core-field activity to active region heating. Activity in fields associated with satellite polarity inclusions and/or magnetically sheared configurations is especially prominent. This work is funded by NASA's Office of Space Science through the Sun-Earth Connection Guest Investigator Program and the Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program.

Porter, J. G.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Vector Magnetograms

In a 17 vector magnetogram study of 12 bipolar active regions (Falconer, Moore, & Gary, 2002, ApJ in press), we correlated four quantitative global magnetic measures with the Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) productivity of the active region. The global measures included a measure of active region size, the total magnetic flux phi and three measures of an active region global nonpotentiality 1) the net current (I (sub N)), 2) the length of the strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line (L(sub SS)) and 3) and the normalized twist (alpha = muIN/PHI). The CME productivity was determined from YOHKOH/SXT observations, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), and when possible Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (SOHO/LASCO) observations within 12 days of the day of the magnetogram. We found that the three measures of global nonpotentiality (I(sub N), L(sub SS), alpha) were all well correlated (greater than 99% confidence level) with an active region's CME productivity. The sample size was to small to confirm if there was a statistical significant correlation of the globally nonscientist measures with future CME activity (i.e. from the date of the magnetogram forward). We are doubling our sample, and will report on the statistical significance of global nonpotentiality as a predictor of future CME productivity. The new active regions are all from the first year of the upgraded MSFC vector magnetograms. This work, is funded by NSF through the Space Weather Program, by NASA through the Living with the Star, Targeted Research and Technology, and by NASA Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program. The upgrade to the MSFC vector magnetograph was supported by the High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (HESSI) mission.

Falconer, D. A.↗