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At least 235 records · Page 13

Physical processes affecting availability of dissolved silicate for diatom production in the Arabian Sea

A passive tracer to represent dissolved silicate concentrations, with biologically realistic uptake kinetics, is successfully incorporated into a three-dimensional, eddy-resolving, ocean circulation model of the Indian Ocean. Hypotheses are tested to evaluate physical processes which potentially affect the availability of silicate for diatom production in the Arabian Sea. An alternative mechanism is offered to the idea that open ocean upwelling is primarily responsible for the high, vertical nutrient flux and consequent large-scale phytoplankton bloom in the northwestern Arabian Sea during the southwest monsoon. Model results show that dissolved silicate in surface waters available for uptake by diatoms is primarily influenced by the intensity of nearshore upwelling from soutwest monsoonal wind forcing and by the offshore advective transport of surface waters. The upwelling, which in the model occurs within 200 +/- 50 km of the coast, appears to be a result of a combination of coastal upwelling, Elkman pumping, and divergence of the coastal flow as it turns offshore. Localized intensifications of silicate concentrations appear to be hydrodynamically driven and geographically correlated to coastal topographic features. The absence of diatoms in sediments of the eastern Arabian Basin is consistent with modeled distributional patterns of dissolved silicate resulting from limited westward advection of upwelled coastal waters from the western continental margin of India and rapid uptake of available silicate by diatoms. Concentrations of modeled silicate become sufficiently low to become unavailable for diatom production in the eastern Arabian Sea, a region between 61 deg E and 70 deg E at 8 deg N on the south, with the east and west boundaries converging on the north at approximately 67 deg E, 20 deg N.

Young, David K.↗

STS-49 Endeavour Mission Highlights Resource Tape, Part 2 of 2

Footage shows the in-flight and landing activities of the STS-49 Endeavour crew, Commander Daniel C. Brandenstein, Pilot Kevin P. Chilton, and Mission Specialists Pierre J. Thuot, Kathryn C. Thornton, Richard J. Hieb, Thomas D. Akers, and Bruce E. Melnick. Thornton and Akers are seen during their spacewalks as they begin assembly on the Space Station Freedom in the payload bay of Endeavour. The crew is shown during de-orbit preparations (such as suiting up and closing the payload bay doors) and Endeavour is seen landing. Shots of Earth from the Orbiter show the southern Atlantic Ocean, southern African continent, and Indian Ocean. The moon is seen above Earth's atmosphere and a storm is seen on the night side as lighting illuminates the clouds.

Source record↗

The Satellite Passive-Microwave Record of Sea Ice in the Ross Sea Since Late 1978

Satellites have provided us with a remarkable ability to monitor many aspects of the globe day-in and day-out and sea ice is one of numerous variables that by now have quite substantial satellite records. Passive-microwave data have been particularly valuable in sea ice monitoring, with a record that extends back to August 1987 on daily basis (for most of the period), to November 1970 on a less complete basis (again for most of the period), and to December 1972 on a less complete basis. For the period since November 1970, Ross Sea sea ice imagery is available at spatial resolution of approximately 25 km. This allows good depictions of the seasonal advance and retreat of the ice cover each year, along with its marked interannual variability. The Ross Sea ice extent typically reaches a minimum of approximately 0.7 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers in February, rising to a maximum of approximately 4.0 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers in September, with much variability among years for both those numbers. The Ross Sea images show clearly the day-by-day activity greatly from year to year. Animations of the data help to highlight the dynamic nature of the Ross Sea ice cover. The satellite data also allow calculation of trends in the ice cover over the period of the satellite record. Using linear least-squares fits, the Ross Sea ice extent increased at an average rate of 12,600 plus or minus 1,800 square kilometers per year between November 1978 and December 2007, with every month exhibiting increased ice extent and the rates of increase ranging from a low of 7,500 plus or minus 5,000 square kilometers per year for the February ice extents to a high of 20,300 plus or minus 6,100 kilometers per year for the October ice extents. On a yearly average basis, for 1979-2007 the Ross Sea ice extent increased at a rate of 4.8 plus or minus 1.6 % per decade. Placing the Ross Sea in the context of the Southern Ocean as a whole, over the November 1978-December 2007 period the Ross Sea had the highest rate of increase in sea ice coverage of any of five standard divisions of the Southern Ocean, although the Weddell Sea, Indian Ocean, and Western Pacific Ocean all also had sea ice increases, while only the Bellingshausen/Smundsen Seas experienced overall sea ice decreases. Overall, the Southern Ocean sea ice cover increased at an average rate of 10,800 plus or minus 2,500 square kilometers per year between November 1978 and December 2007, with every month showing positive values although with some of these values not being statistically significant. The sea ice increase since November 1978 was preceded by a sharp decrease in Southern Ocean ice coverage in the 1970's and is in marked contrast to the decrease in Arctic sea ice coverage that has occurred both in the period since November 1978 and since earlier in the 1970's. On a yearly average bases, for 1979-2007 the Southern Ocean sea ice extent increased at a rate of 1.0 plus or minus 0.4% per decade, whereas the Arctic ice extent decreased at the much greater rate of 4.0 plus or minus 0.4 percent per decade (closer to the % per decade rate of increase in the Ross Sea). Considerable research is ongoing to explain the differences.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗

Are the World's Oceans Optically Different?

Regional differences in the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor chlorophyll algorithm uncertainty were observed in a large global data set containing coincident in situ measurements of chlorophyll a concentration (Chla) and spectral radiometry. The uncertainty was found to be systematic when the data were sorted by ocean: Atlantic, Pacific, Southern, and Indian Oceans. Artifacts associated with different instrumentation and analytical methods had been previously ruled out. Given these oceanic biases in the chlorophyll algorithm, we hypothesized that the oceans may be optically different, and their optical differences may be intrinsically related to regional differences in phytoplankton community structure or biogeochemical processes. The oceanic biases, originally observed using radiometric measurements, were independently verified using total absorption measurements in a subset of the data. Moreover, they were explained through oceanic differences in the absorption of colored detrital matter (CDM) and phytoplankton. Both effects were considered together in explaining the ocean biases through a stepwise linear regression analysis. Significant oceanic differences in the amount of CDM and in phytoplankton cell sizes and pigmentation would give rise to optical differences, but we raise a concern for the spatial coverage of the data. We do not suggest the application of ocean-based algorithms but rather emphasize the importance of consolidating regional data sets before reaching this conclusion.

Szeto, M.↗

Tropospheric Age-of-Air: Influence of SF6 Emissions on Recent Surface Trends and Model Biases

The mean age since air was last at the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude surface is a fundamental property of tropospheric transport. Here we approximate the mean age in terms of an "SF6 age" (ΓSF6), derived from surface and aircraft measurements of SF6 that are broader in spatial scope and cover a longer time period (1997-2018) than considered previously. At the surface, ΓSF6 increases from near-zero values north of 30°N to ~1.5 years over the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics, with the largest meridional gradients occurring in the tropics. By comparison, vertical gradients in ΓSF6 are weak throughout, with only slight increases/decreases with height in the NH/SH. The broader spatial coverage of the measurements reveals strong variations in the seasonal cycle of ΓSF6 within the (sub)tropics that are weaker over the Atlantic and Paci c oceans, compared to over the Indian Ocean. Observations from 2000-2018 reveal that the SF6 age at sites in the SH has been decreasing by ~0.12 yr/dec. However, this decrease is not due to changes in transport but, rather, is likely related to changes in emissions, which have increased globally and reportedly shifted from northern midlatitudes into the subtropics. Simulations, which reproduce the SF6 age trends, show no decreases in an age-of-air tracer, reinforcing the fact that ΓSF6 represents only an approximation to the mean age. Finally, the modeled SF6 ages are older than observed, by ~0.3-0.4 years throughout the southern extratropics. We show that this bias is partly related to an overestimation in simulated SF6 near emissions regions,

Mean age↗

Generation of low–latitude seamount–trapped waves: a case study of the Seychelles Plateau

Baroclinic seamount-trapped waves are thought to influence their surrounding ecosystem; however, trapped waves are not well-studied in near-equatorial settings, where stratification is strong and Burger numbers are large. Motivated by observations, we use daily output (2005-2009) from the global 0.1-degree Parallel Ocean Program Model (POP) to examine topographically trapped baroclinic waves around the Seychelles Plateau (S > 400) in the tropical Indian Ocean. These trapped waves are associated with velocity and temperature oscillations at periods of 15–16 days, similar to the dominant period of some equatorial Yanai waves. Energy flux maps using POP output suggest that quasi-biweekly equatorial Yanai waves excite trapped waves on the western and south-western flanks of the Seychelles Plateau, near the surface. Here, the anticyclonic energy flux associated with the trapped wave extends vertically throughout the water column and around most of the plateau circumference, diminishing on the eastern flank of the plateau. This work highlights the role that equatorial planetary waves and trapped waves play in facilitating energy redistribution, dissipation, and mixing in the tropical ocean.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Antitropical distribution and evolution in the Indo-West Pacific Ocean

Antitropical distributions of continental shelf, Indo-West Pacific species are probably not due to transgression of the tropics during the glacial periods, isothermic submergence, island integration, rising Neogene temperatures, or the Mesozoic dispersal of fragments from a Pacific continental mass. Characteristics of common antitropical patterns, plus information from systematic works on a variety on a variety of animal and plant groups, indicate that the long discarded "relict theory" of Theel (1885) appears to best fit the evidence, for it provides a mechanism whereby antitropical distribution may be brought about. The relict theory is compatible with the concept that the East Indies part of the Indo-West Pacific has been functioning as a center of evolutionary origin. It suggests that antitropical and associated disjunct patterns are produced as an older species, that has spread out to occupy a broad range, loses ground and gradually becomes supplanted by a younger species that had subsequently evolved in the East Indies. As this process goes on, the older species becomes restricted to a few isolated localities on the fringe of its original range. These isolates are often found to the north and south of the equatorial region but may include relict populations at the western edge of the Indian Ocean.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

Earth observations during Space Shuttle Flight STS-49: Endeavor's Mission to Planet Earth

A brief mission overview of STS-49 is given, and some of the pictorially outstanding and scientifically interesting photographs obtained during the mission are presented. The Earth observations are described and include the following: the Southwestern Pacific Ocean -- wind and water; the Southwestern Pacific Ocean -- coasts and volcanoes; the US; Cuba and the Bahamas; South America; Africa; the Red Sea and Western Indian Ocean; and the Indian Subcontinent.

Amsbury, David L.↗

Climate Variability and Simultaneous Breadbasket Yield Shocks as Observed in Long-Term Yield Records

That climate variability and change can potentially force multiple simultaneous breadbasket crop yield shocks has been established. But research quantifying the mechanisms behind such simultaneous shocks has been constrained by short records of crop yields. Here we compile a dataset of subnational crop yields in 25 countries dating back to 1900 to study the frequency and trends in multiple breadbasket yield shocks and how large-scale climate anomalies on interannual timescales have affected multiple breadbasket yield shocks over the last century. We find that major simultaneous breadbasket yield shocks have occurred in at least three, four, or five of nine breadbaskets 10.3%, 2.3% and 1.1% of the time for maize and 18.4%, 4.6% and 2.3% of the time for wheat. Furthermore, we find that multiple breadbasket yield shocks decreased in frequency even as those breadbaskets experience increasingly frequent climate-related shocks. For both maize and wheat breadbaskets, there were fewer simultaneous yield shocks during the 1975–2017 time period as compared to 1931–1975. Finally, we find that interannual modes of climate variability - such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - have all affected the relative probability of simultaneous yield shocks in pairs of breadbaskets by up to 20–40% in both maize and wheat breadbaskets. While past literature has focused on the effects of ENSO, we find that at the global scale the NAO affects the overall number of wheat yield shocks most strongly despite only affecting northern hemisphere breadbaskets.

agriculture↗

Simulations of Cloud-Radiation Interaction Using Large-Scale Forcing Derived from the CINDY/DYNAMO Northern Sounding Array

The recently completed CINDY/DYNAMO field campaign observed two Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) events in the equatorial Indian Ocean from October to December 2011. Prior work has indicated that the moist static energy anomalies in these events grew and were sustained to a significant extent by radiative feedbacks. We present here a study of radiative fluxes and clouds in a set of cloud-resolving simulations of these MJO events. The simulations are driven by the large-scale forcing data set derived from the DYNAMO northern sounding array observations, and carried out in a doubly periodic domain using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Simulated cloud properties and radiative fluxes are compared to those derived from the S-PolKa radar and satellite observations. To accommodate the uncertainty in simulated cloud microphysics, a number of single-moment (1M) and double-moment (2M) microphysical schemes in the WRF model are tested. The 1M schemes tend to underestimate radiative flux anomalies in the active phases of the MJO events, while the 2M schemes perform better, but can overestimate radiative flux anomalies. All the tested microphysics schemes exhibit biases in the shapes of the histograms of radiative fluxes and radar reflectivity. Histograms of radiative fluxes and brightness temperature indicate that radiative biases are not evenly distributed; the most significant bias occurs in rainy areas with OLR less than 150 W/ cu sq in the 2M schemes. Analysis of simulated radar reflectivities indicates that this radiative flux uncertainty is closely related to the simulated stratiform cloud coverage. Single-moment schemes underestimate stratiform cloudiness by a factor of 2, whereas 2M schemes simulate much more stratiform cloud.

Indian Ocean↗

Pantropical Indo-Atlantic temperature gradient modulates multi-decadal AMOC variability in models and observations

Abstract Interconnections between ocean basins are recognized as an important driver of climate variability. Recent modeling evidence suggests that the North Atlantic climate can respond to persistent warming of the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the rest of the tropics (rTIO). Here, we use observational data to demonstrate that multi-decadal changes in pantropical ocean temperature gradients lead to variations of an SST-based proxy of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The largest contribution to this temperature gradient-AMOCconnection comes from gradients between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. TherTIOindex yields the strongest connection of this tropical temperature gradient to theAMOC. Focusing on the internally generated signal in three observational products reveals that an SST-basedAMOCproxy index has closely followed low-frequency changes ofrTIOtemperature with about 26-year lag since 1870. Analyzing the pre-industrial control simulations of 44 CMIP6 climate models shows that theAMOCproxy index lags simulated mid-latitudeAMOCvariations by 4 ± 4 years. These model simulations reveal the mechanism connectingAMOCvariations to pantropical ocean temperature gradients at a 27 ± 2 years lag, matching the observed time lag in 28 out of the 44 analyzed models. rTIO temperature changes affect the North Atlantic climate through atmospheric planetary waves, impacting temperature and salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic, which modifies deep convection and ultimately the AMOC. Through this mechanism, observed internalrTIOvariations can serve as a multi-decadal precursor ofAMOCchanges with important implications forAMOCdynamics and predictability.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Deep Ocean Warming Assessed from Altimeters, GRACE, 3 In-situ Measurements, and a Non-Boussinesq OGCM

Observational surveys have shown significant oceanic bottom water warming, but they are too spatially and temporally sporadic to quantify the deep ocean contribution to the present-day sea level rise (SLR). In this study, altimetry sea surface height (SSH), Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) ocean mass, and in situ upper ocean (0-700 m) steric height have been assessed for their seasonal variability and trend maps. It is shown that neither the global mean nor the regional trends of altimetry SLR can be explained by the upper ocean steric height plus the GRACE ocean mass. A non-Boussinesq ocean general circulation model (OGCM), allowing the sea level to rise as a direct response to the heat added into the ocean, is then used to diagnose the deep ocean steric height. Constrained by sea surface temperature data and the top of atmosphere (TOA) radiation measurements, the model reproduces the observed upper ocean heat content well. Combining the modeled deep ocean steric height with observational upper ocean data gives the full depth steric height. Adding a GRACE-estimated mass trend, the data-model combination explains not only the altimetry global mean SLR but also its regional trends fairly well. The deep ocean warming is mostly prevalent in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, suggesting a strong relation to the oceanic circulation and dynamics. Its comparison with available bottom water measurements shows reasonably good agreement, indicating that deep ocean warming below 700 m might have contributed 1.1 mm/yr to the global mean SLR or one-third of the altimeter-observed rate of 3.11 +/- 0.6 mm/yr over 1993-2008.

sea level↗

Development and evaluation of a new 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled ocean data assimilation system in E3SMv2

The development, implementation, and evaluation of a new weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system for the fully coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) utilizing the four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) method are presented in this study. The 4DEnVar method, based on the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) approach, replaces the adjoint model with the ensemble technique, thereby reducing computational demands. Monthly mean ocean temperature and salinity data from the EN4.2.1 reanalysis are integrated into the ocean component of E3SMv2 from 1950 to 2021 with the goal of providing realistic initial conditions for decadal predictions and predictability studies. The performance of the WCODA system is assessed using various metrics, including the reduction rate of the cost function, root mean square error (RMSE) differences, correlation differences, and model biases. Results indicate that the WCODA system effectively assimilates the reanalysis data into the climate model, consistently achieving negative reduction rates of the cost function and notable improvements in RMSE and correlation across various ocean layers and regions. Significant enhancements are observed in the upper ocean layers across the majority of global ocean regions, particularly in the north Atlantic, north Pacific, and Indian Ocean. Model biases in sea surface temperature and salinity are also substantially reduced. For sea surface temperature, cold biases in the north Pacific and north Atlantic are diminished by about 1–2 °C, and warm biases in the Southern Ocean are corrected by approximately 1.5–2.5 °C. In terms of salinity, improvements are observed with bias reductions of about 0.5–1 psu in the north Atlantic and north Pacific and up to 1.5 psu in parts of the Southern Ocean. The ultimate goal of the WCODA system is to advance the predictive capabilities of E3SM for subseasonal to decadal climate predictions, thereby supporting research on strategic energy-sector policies and planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Brown Cloud Pollution and Smog Ozone Transport 6,000 km to the Tropical Atlantic: Mechanism and Sensing

We have found repeated illustrations in the maps of Total Tropospheric Ozone (TTO) of apparent transport of ozone from the Indian Ocean to the Equatorial Atlantic Ocean. Most interesting are examples that coincide with the INDOEX observations of late northern winter. Three soundings with the SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes) network help confirm and quantify degree of influence of pollution, lightning, and stratospheric sources, suggesting that perhaps 40% of increased Atlantic ozone could be Asian pollution during periods of maximum identified in the TTO maps. This analysis also indicates a mechanism for such extended transport. We outline recurrent periods of apparent ozone transport from Indian to Atlantic Ocean regions outside the late-winter period. Clearly brown-cloud aerosol affects tropospheric ozone, both limiting its chemical production and also potentially obscuring its detection by the TOMS instrument. Introductory statistical studies will be presented, evaluating the role of tropopause meteorology, aerosol, and other factors in the modifying the relationship between true tropospheric ozone measured by SHADOZ and the TTO product, with suggestions for extending the product.

Chatfield, Robert B.↗

The QBO–MJO Connection: A Possible Role for the SST and ENSO

We examine the hypothesis that the observed connection between the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the strength of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is modulated by the sea surface temperature (SST)—for example, by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A composite analysis shows that, globally, La Niña SSTs are remarkably similar to those that occur during the easterly phase of the QBO. A maximum covariance analysis suggests that MJO power and SST are strongly linked on both the ENSO time scale and the QBO time scale. We analyze simulations with a modified configuration of version 2 of the Community Earth System Model, with a high top and fine vertical resolution. The model is able to simulate ENSO, the QBO, and the MJO. The ocean-coupled version of the model simulates the QBO, ENSO, and MJO, but does not simulate the observed QBO–MJO connection. When driven with prescribed observed SST anomalies based on composites for QBO east and QBO west (QBOE and QBOW), however, the same atmospheric model produces a modest enhancement of MJO power during QBOE relative to QBOW, as observed. We explore the possibility that the SST anomalies are forced by the QBO itself. Indeed, composite Hovmöller diagrams based on observations show the propagation of QBO zonal wind anomalies all the way from the upper stratosphere to the surface. Also, subsurface ocean temperature composites reveal a similarity between the western Pacific and Indian Ocean subsurface signal between La Niña and QBOE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Utilization of Machine Learning Techniques for Managing the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite Constellation

National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) operates a constellation of ten geosynchronous Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS). The TDRS constellation consists of multiple geosynchronous communication relay satellites located around the equator so they can provide continual coverage of any mission in low earth orbit. The TDRS are located primarily in three oceanic regions around the earth. NASA’s White Sands Complex provides the ground communication support for TDRS located over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Another TDRS ground station in Guam supports the TDRS over the Indian Ocean. With these satellites the TDRS network can provide continuous coverage of satellites in low-earth orbit. The NASA Space Network (SN) project office at GSFC manages the constellation of spacecraft. Major customers of the TDRS constellation include, but are not limited to, the International Space Station and the Hubble Space Telescope. The TDRS constellation has three generations of satellites and has been active for over 30 years providing reliable communication links between customer satellites and corresponding ground stations. However, one of the major concerns for TDRS, and in any space mission, is to ensure the health and safety of the spacecraft. Generally, engineers use telemetry data to monitor and analyze the performance and state of health of the spacecraft. Telemetry data contains hundreds of parameters that monitor each important component in the spacecraft, which can be utilized to recognize and characterize the behavior of the spacecraft. Each parameter contains considerable information to represent time-dependent properties of each spacecraft subsystem and component. During the entire life of a TDRS spacecraft, thousands of gigabytes of telemetry data are transmitted in real-time from the spacecraft to the ground station at the White Sands Complex in Las Cruces, New Mexico, and recorded as historical data sets for engineers to process and analyze the events that occurred on-orbit. These parameters contain the function of multiple spacecraft subsystems, such as the attitude control system (ACS), Thermal, Electrical Power Subsystem (EPS), etc. . The first and second generations have exceeded their required lifetime and NASA is keen to manage these spacecrafts carefully in order to maximize the remaining life using the spacecraft telemetry. The challenge is to know when the risk of losing a spacecraft in geosynchronous orbit exceeds the benefit of continued operations for customer support. In the TDRS fleet, the EPS is the most critical subsystem related to spacecraft operations. Failure of the EPS would strand a spacecraft in geosynchronous orbit. Since EPS provides power to the spacecraft, component failures ultimately lead to the inability to support the spacecraft loads and the communications payload. For instance, TDRS-8 has several anomalies in EPS including the Bus Voltage Limiter (BVL) shunt current, solar array loss of circuits, and failed battery cells. Any of these anomalies can cause critical issues to the spacecraft. Therefore, developing a system to analyze and perform early detection of a potential anomaly is an important issue in telemetry data analysis. In recent years, Telemetry Mining (TM) has been proposed to process telemetry data by using Data Mining (DM) techniques such as classification, clustering, regression and anomaly detection. Anomaly detection, also known as outlier detection, has been widely used in many data mining areas such as remote sensing, medical data processing and digital image processing. The goal of anomaly detection is to detect abnormal data, which contains a relatively low probability of occurrence among the entire data set. Early detection of anomalies is one of the most significant issues in managing the spacecraft configuration. If anomalies can be detected early enough, then the redundant resources can be used to extend the life of the operational spacecraft. We present an unsupervised anomaly detection method to process the EPS data extracted from TDRS-8. This is different from traditional analytical methods, which use telemetry data to illustrate behavior and physical meaning of each spacecraft component. TM connects multiple parameters as a vector and then conducts data analysis on this high dimension telemetry vector. This method is looking at the properties of a high dimensional vector that is able to consider the relationship between different parameters in the anomaly detection problem. This kind of method performs much better than the traditional limit checking method. In addition, we propose a new approach of real-time anomaly detection to process telemetry data in real-time, which can then be applied to spacecraft monitoring with high reliability, low cost and high accuracy.

Machine Learning (ML)↗

Role of Maritime Continent Land Convection on the Mean State and MJO Propagation

The Maritime Continent (MC) region is known as a ‘barrier’ in the life-cycle of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). During boreal winter, the MJO detours the equatorial MC land region southward and propagates through the oceanic region. Also, about half of the MJO events that initiate over the Indian Ocean cease around the MC. The mechanism through which the MC affects MJO propagation, however, has remained unanswered. The current study investigates the MJO-MC interaction with a particular focus on the role of MC land convection. Using a global climate model that simulates both mean climate and MJO realistically, we performed two sensitivity experiments in which updraft plume radius is set to its maximum and minimum value only in the MC land grid points, making convective top deeper and shallower, respectively. In this work, our results show that MC land convection plays a key role in shaping the 3-D climatological moisture distribution around the MC through its local and non-local effects. Shallower and weaker MC land convection results in a steepening of the vertical and meridional mean moisture gradient over the MC region. The opposite is the case when MC land convection becomes deeper and stronger. The MJO’s eastward propagation is enhanced (suppressed) with the steeper (lower) mean moisture gradient. The moist static energy (MSE) budget of the MJO reveals the vertical and meridional advection of the mean MSE by MJO wind anomalies as the key processes that are responsible for the changes in MJO propagation characteristics. Our results pinpoint the critical role of the background moisture gradient on MJO propagation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Constraints on hydrothermal heat flux through the oceanic lithosphere from global heat flow

A significant discrepancy exists between the heat flow measured at the seafloor and the higher values predicted by thermal models of the cooling lithosphere. This discrepancy is generally interpreted as indicating that the upper oceanic crust is cooled significantly by hydrothermal circulation. The magnitude of this heat flow discrepancy is the primary datum used to estimate the volume of hydrothermal flow, and the variation in the discrepancy with lithospheric age is the primary constraint on how the hydrothermal flux is divided between near-ridge and off-ridge environments. The resulting estimates are important for investigation of both the thermal structure of the lithosphere and the chemistry of the oceans. We reevaluate the magnitude and age variation of the discrepancy using a global heat flow data set substantially larger than in earlier studies, and the GDHI (Global Depth and Heat Flow) model that better predicts the heat flow. We estimate that of the predicted global oceanic heat flux of 32 x 10(exp 12) W, 34% (11 x 10(exp 12) W) occurs by hydrothermal flow. Approximately 30% of the hydrothermal heat flux occurs in crust younger than 1 Ma, so the majority of this flux is off-ridge. These hydrothermal heat flux estimates are upper bounds, because heat flow measurements require sediment at the site and so are made preferentially at topographic lows, where heat flow may be depressed. Because the water temperature for the near-ridge flow exceeds that for the off-ridge flow, the near-ridge water flow will be even a smaller fraction of the total water flow. As a result, in estimating fluxes from geochemical data, use of the high water temperatures appropriate for the ridge axis may significantly overestimate the heat flux for an assumed water flux or underestimate the water flux for an assumed heat flux. Our data also permit improved estimates of the 'sealing' age, defined as the age where the observed heat flow approximately equals that predicted, suggesting that hydrothermal heat transfer has largely ceased. Although earlier studies suggested major differences in sealing ages for different ocean basins, we find that the sealing ages for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans are similar and consistent with the sealing age for the entire data set, 65 +/- 10 Ma. The previous inference of a young (approximately 20 Ma) sealing age for the Pacific appears to have biased downward several previous estimates of the global hydrothermal flux. The heat flow data also provide indirect evidence for the mechanism by which the hydrothermal heat flux becomes small, which has often been ascribed to isolation of the igneous crust from seawater due to the hydraulic conductivity of the intervening sediment. We find, however, that even the least sedimented sites show the systematic increase of the ratio of observed to predicted heat flow with age, although the more sedimented sites have a younger sealing age. Moreover, the heat flow discrepancy persists at heavily sedimented sites until approximately 50 Ma. It thus appears that approximately 100-200 m of sediment is neither necessary nor sufficient to stop hydrothermal heat transfer. We therefore conclude that the age of the crust is the primary control on the fraction of heat transported by hydrothermal flow and that sediment thickness has a lesser effect. This inference is consistent with models in which hydrothermal flow decreases with age due to reduced crustal porosity and hence permeability.

Stein, Carol A.↗