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Analyzing High-Dimensional Multispectral Data
In this paper, through a series of specific examples, we illustrate some characteristics encountered in analyzing high- dimensional multispectral data. The increased importance of the second-order statistics in analyzing high-dimensional data is illustrated, as is the shortcoming of classifiers such as the minimum distance classifier which rely on first-order variations alone. We also illustrate how inaccurate estimation or first- and second-order statistics, e.g., from use of training sets which are too small, affects the performance of a classifier. Recognizing the importance of second-order statistics on the one hand, but the increased difficulty in perceiving and comprehending information present in statistics derived from high-dimensional data on the other, we propose a method to aid visualization of high-dimensional statistics using a color coding scheme.
Preliminary Survey of Icing Conditions Measured During Routine Transcontinental Airline Operation
Icing data collected on routine operations by four DC-4-type aircraft equipped with NACA pressure-type icing-rate meters are presented as preliminary information obtained from a statistical icing data program sponsored by the NACA with the cooperation of many airline companies and the United States Air Force. The program is continuing on a much greater scale to provide large quantities of data from many air routes in the United States and overseas. Areas not covered by established air routes are also being included in the survey. The four aircraft which collected the data presented in this report were operated by United Air Lines over a transcontinental route from January through May, 1951. An analysis of the pressure-type icing-rate meter was satisfactory for collecting statistical data during routine operations. Data obtained on routine flight icing encounters from.these four instrumented aircraft, although insufficient for a conclusive statistical analysis, provide a greater quantity and considerably more realistic information than that obtained from random research flights. A summary of statistical data will be published when the information obtained daring the 1951-52 icing season and that to be obtained during the 1952-53 season can be analyzed and assembled. The 1951-52 data already analyzed indicate that the quantity, quality, and range of icing information being provided by this expanded program should afford a sound basis for ice-protection-system design by defining the important meteorological parameters of the icing cloud.
Data Assimilation to Extract Soil Moisture Information From SMAP Observations
Statistical techniques permit the retrieval of soil moisture estimates in a model climatology while retaining the spatial and temporal signatures of the satellite observations. As a consequence, they can be used to reduce the need for localized bias correction techniques typically implemented in data assimilation (DA) systems that tend to remove some of the independent information provided by satellite observations. Here, we use a statistical neural network (NN) algorithm to retrieve SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) surface soil moisture estimates in the climatology of the NASA Catchment land surface model. Assimilating these estimates without additional bias correction is found to significantly reduce the model error and increase the temporal correlation against SMAP CalVal in situ observations over the contiguous United States. A comparison with assimilation experiments using traditional bias correction techniques shows that the NN approach better retains the independent information provided by the SMAP observations and thus leads to larger model skill improvements during the assimilation. A comparison with the SMAP Level 4 product shows that the NN approach is able to provide comparable skill improvements and thus represents a viable assimilation approach.
Analyzing high dimensional data
Problems encountered in analyzing high dimensional data are discussed and possible solutions are proposed. The increased importance of second-order statistics in analyzing high dimensional data and the shortcoming of the minimum distance classifier in high dimensional data are recognized. By investigating characteristics of high dimensional data, it is shown that second-order statistics must be taken into account in high dimensional data. There is a need to represent second order statistics effectively. As the data dimensionality increases, it becomes more difficult to perceive and compare information present in statistics derived from data. In order to overcome this problem, a method to visualize statistics using color code is proposed. By representing statistics using a color code, the first and the second statistics can be more readily compared.
On-board closed-loop congestion control for satellite based packet switching networks
NASA LeRC is currently investigating a satellite architecture that incorporates on-board packet switching capability. Because of the statistical nature of packet switching, arrival traffic may fluctuate and thus it is necessary to integrate congestion control mechanism as part of the on-board processing unit. This study focuses on the closed-loop reactive control. We investigate the impact of the long propagation delay on the performance and propose a scheme to overcome the problem. The scheme uses a global feedback signal to regulate the packet arrival rate of ground stations. In this scheme, the satellite continuously broadcasts the status of its output buffer and the ground stations respond by selectively discarding packets or by tagging the excessive packets as low-priority. The two schemes are evaluated by theoretical queuing analysis and simulation. The former is used to analyze the simplified model and to determine the basic trends and bounds, and the later is used to assess the performance of a more realistic system and to evaluate the effectiveness of more sophisticated control schemes. The results show that the long propagation delay makes the closed-loop congestion control less responsive. The broadcasted information can only be used to extract statistical information. The discarding scheme needs carefully-chosen status information and reduction function, and normally requires a significant amount of ground discarding to reduce the on-board packet loss probability. The tagging scheme is more effective since it tolerates more uncertainties and allows a larger margin of error in status information. It can protect the high-priority packets from excessive loss and fully utilize the downlink bandwidth at the same time.
Importance of Engineered and Learned Molecular Representations in Predicting Organic Reactivity, Selectivity, and Chemical Properties
Machine-readable chemical structure representations are foundational in all attempts to harness machine learning for the prediction of reactivities, selectivities, and chemical properties directly from molecular structure. The featurization of discrete chemical structures into a continuous vector space is a critical phase undertaken before model selection, and the development of new ways to quantitatively encode molecules is an active area of research. Here, we highlight the application and suitability of different representations, from expert-guided “engineered” descriptors to automatically “learned” features, in different prediction tasks relevant to organic and organometallic chemistry, where differing amounts of training data are available. These tasks include statistical models of stereo- and enantioselectivity, thermochemistry, and kinetics developed using experimental and quantum chemical data. The use of expert-guided molecular descriptors provides an opportunity to incorporate chemical knowledge, domain expertise, and physical constraints into statistical modeling. In applications to stereoselective organic and organometallic catalysis, where data sets may be relatively small and 3D-geometries and conformations play an important role, mechanistically informed features can be used successfully to obtain predictive statistical models that are also chemically interpretable. We provide an overview of several recent applications of this approach to obtain quantitative models for reactivity and selectivity, where topological descriptors, quantum mechanical calculations of electronic and steric properties, along with conformational ensembles, all feature as essential ingredients of the molecular representations used. Alternatively, more flexible, general-purpose molecular representations such as attributed molecular graphs can be used with machine learning approaches to learn the complex relationship between a structure and prediction target. This approach has the potential to out-perform more traditional representation methods such as “hand-crafted” molecular descriptors, particularly as data set sizes grow. One area where this is particularly relevant is in the use of large sets of quantum mechanical data to train quantitative structure–property relationships. A general approach toward curating useful data sets and training highly accurate graph neural network models is discussed in the context of organic bond dissociation enthalpies, where this strategy outperforms regression using precomputed descriptors. Finally, we describe how graph neural network predictions can be incorporated into mechanistically informed statistical models of chemical reactivity and selectivity. Once trained, this approach avoids the expensive computational overhead associated with quantum mechanical calculations, while maintaining chemical interpretability. We illustrate examples for which fast predictions of bond dissociation enthalpy and of the identities of radicals formed through cleavage of a molecule’s weakest bond are used in simple physical models of site-selectivity and reactivity.
On the Feasibility of Satellite Altimeter Tomography
The time-varying field of sea surface height (SSH) reflects a large number of dynamical processes including a broad range of baroclinic waves. Inertia-gravity (IG) and Rossby waves (RW) are readily detected in power spectra F(k) of SSH spatial variations, as well as in wavenumber-frequency spectral, ,k), and autocorrelation functions W(). these statistical characteristics contain information on dynamical processes in the upper thermocline. We show that the well-known 3-segment shape of 1-d spectra (based on SSH variations along satellite tracks) is determined by the Internal Rossby radius of deformation and by the degree of nonlinearity of baroclinic IG waves. Analyzing altimeter-based spectra of SSH variations in the light of a recently proposed theory for IG wave turbulence, we demonstrate that baroclinic IG waves are typically highly nonlinear. For a number of mid- and high-latitude regions, the internal Rossby radius and the wave nonlinearity are estimated from T/P data and shown to agree with expected values. The degree of the wave nonlinearity is of great practical interest. In particular, it tells us about the intensity of internal wave breaking. Furthermore, estimating the velocity of baroclinic RW we derive additional information on the upper layer stratification. These experiments point to the feasibility of using observed SSH field statistics (such F(k) and W()) to monitor properties of and dynamical processes in the upper mixed layer of the ocean.
Diagnostic Reasoning using Prognostic Information for Unmanned Aerial Systems
With increasing popularity of unmanned aircraft, continuous monitoring of their systems, software, and health status is becoming more and more important to ensure safe, correct, and efficient operation and fulfillment of missions. The paper presents integration of prognosis models and prognostic information with the R2U2 (REALIZABLE, RESPONSIVE, and UNOBTRUSIVE Unit) monitoring and diagnosis framework. This integration makes available statistically reliable health information predictions of the future at a much earlier time to enable autonomous decision making. The prognostic information can be used in the R2U2 model to improve diagnostic accuracy and enable decisions to be made at the present time to deal with events in the future. This will be an advancement over the current state of the art, where temporal logic observers can only do such valuation at the end of the time interval. Usefulness and effectiveness of this integrated diagnostics and prognostics framework was demonstrated using simulation experiments with the NASA Dragon Eye electric unmanned aircraft.
Simulating precipitation in the Northeast United States using a climate-informed K -nearest neighbour algorithm
Not provided.
The Statistical Consulting Center for Astronomy (SCCA)
The process by which raw astronomical data acquisition is transformed into scientifically meaningful results and interpretation typically involves many statistical steps. Traditional astronomy limits itself to a narrow range of old and familiar statistical methods: means and standard deviations; least-squares methods like chi(sup 2) minimization; and simple nonparametric procedures such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. These tools are often inadequate for the complex problems and datasets under investigations, and recent years have witnessed an increased usage of maximum-likelihood, survival analysis, multivariate analysis, wavelet and advanced time-series methods. The Statistical Consulting Center for Astronomy (SCCA) assisted astronomers with the use of sophisticated tools, and to match these tools with specific problems. The SCCA operated with two professors of statistics and a professor of astronomy working together. Questions were received by e-mail, and were discussed in detail with the questioner. Summaries of those questions and answers leading to new approaches were posted on the Web (www.state.psu.edu/ mga/SCCA). In addition to serving individual astronomers, the SCCA established a Web site for general use that provides hypertext links to selected on-line public-domain statistical software and services. The StatCodes site (www.astro.psu.edu/statcodes) provides over 200 links in the areas of: Bayesian statistics; censored and truncated data; correlation and regression, density estimation and smoothing, general statistics packages and information; image analysis; interactive Web tools; multivariate analysis; multivariate clustering and classification; nonparametric analysis; software written by astronomers; spatial statistics; statistical distributions; time series analysis; and visualization tools. StatCodes has received a remarkable high and constant hit rate of 250 hits/week (over 10,000/year) since its inception in mid-1997. It is of interest to scientists both within and outside of astronomy. The most popular sections are multivariate techniques, image analysis, and time series analysis. Hundreds of copies of the ASURV, SLOPES and CENS-TAU codes developed by SCCA scientists were also downloaded from the StatCodes site. In addition to formal SCCA duties, SCCA scientists continued a variety of related activities in astrostatistics, including refereeing of statistically oriented papers submitted to the Astrophysical Journal, talks in meetings including Feigelson's talk to science journalists entitled "The reemergence of astrostatistics" at the American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting, and published papers of astrostatistical content.
Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort
The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.
Recent statistical methods for orientation data
The application of statistical methods for determining the areas of animal orientation and navigation are discussed. The method employed is limited to the two-dimensional case. Various tests for determining the validity of the statistical analysis are presented. Mathematical models are included to support the theoretical considerations and tables of data are developed to show the value of information obtained by statistical analysis.
An automated library financial management system
A computerized library acquisition system developed for control of informational materials acquired at NASA Ames Research Center is described. The system monitors the acquisition of both library and individual researchers' orders and supplies detailed financial, statistical, and bibliographical information. Applicability for other libraries and the future availability of the program is discussed.
Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Spectra Information from Multiple Independent Astrophysics Data Sets
The Maximum Likelihood (ML) statistical theory required to estimate spectra information from an arbitrary number of astrophysics data sets produced by vastly different science instruments is developed in this paper. This theory and its successful implementation will facilitate the interpretation of spectral information from multiple astrophysics missions and thereby permit the derivation of superior spectral information based on the combination of data sets. The procedure is of significant value to both existing data sets and those to be produced by future astrophysics missions consisting of two or more detectors by allowing instrument developers to optimize each detector's design parameters through simulation studies in order to design and build complementary detectors that will maximize the precision with which the science objectives may be obtained. The benefits of this ML theory and its application is measured in terms of the reduction of the statistical errors (standard deviations) of the spectra information using the multiple data sets in concert as compared to the statistical errors of the spectra information when the data sets are considered separately, as well as any biases resulting from poor statistics in one or more of the individual data sets that might be reduced when the data sets are combined.
A Review of Recent Developments in X-Ray Diagnostics for Turbulent and Optically Dense Rocket Sprays
Highly efficient mixing and atomization of fuel and oxidizers is an important factor in many propulsion and power generating applications. To better quantify breakup and mixing in atomizing sprays, several diagnostic techniques have been developed to collect droplet information and spray statistics. Several optical based techniques, such as Ballistic Imaging and SLIPI have previously demonstrated qualitative measurements in optically dense sprays, however these techniques have produced limited quantitative information in the near injector region. To complement to these advances, a recent wave of developments utilizing synchrotron based x-rays have been successful been implemented facilitating the collection of quantitative measurements in optically dense sprays.
Information Flow in an R and D Laboratory
Statistical analysis of hypotheses concerning roles of technological gatekeeper and primary groups in flow of information in small research and development laboratory
Beyond Generalized Eigenvalues in Lattice Quantum Field Theory
Two analysis techniques, the generalized eigenvalue method (GEM) or Prony's (or related) method (PM), are commonly used to analyze statistical estimates of correlation functions produced in lattice quantum field theory calculations. GEM takes full advantage of the matrix structure of correlation functions but only considers individual pairs of time separations when much more data exists. PM can be applied to many time separations and many individual matrix elements simultaneously but does not fully exploit the matrix structure of the correlation function. We combine both these methods into a single framework based on matrix polynomials. As these algebraic methods are well known for producing extensive spectral information about statistically-noisy data, the method should be paired with some information criteria, like the recently proposed Bayesean model averaging.