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308 records · Page 13

Quantifying the dislocation content of atomically resolved grain boundary line defects using the Nye tensor

The Nye tensor, which quantifies the density of Burgers vector for a given dislocation line direction, can be effectively used to characterize dislocation content in bulk crystals from atomic-resolution transmission electron microscopy images. The Nye tensor can be calculated from these images, in part because the reference state is simply defined by the lattice of the perfect crystal. The application of the Nye tensor to interfacial line defects, for which the natural reference state is the dichromatic pattern of the two grains in their reference orientation, poses additional challenges. In this work, we present a method that employs the Nye tensor to characterize the edge dislocation content of line defects at grain boundaries from atomic-resolution images. This approach enables us to rapidly characterize all edge dislocation content along a grain boundary. Additionally, the Nye tensor provides information about line defect core structure. Finally, we demonstrate this method on two exemplar defects: a twin boundary disconnection and a facet junction in face-centered cubic Au.

Crystallographic defects

Classical-Quantum Algorithm for Solving Stochastic Programs

Stochastic programming provides a rigorous mathematical framework for making decisions under uncertainty in a risk-aware manner. Two-stage stochastic programming is, perhaps, the simplest form of this framework. Here the first-stage variables represent decisions that must be made "here and now" in the face of uncertainty, while the second-stage variables are decisions made after uncertain events. However, the broad adoption of stochastic programming has been hindered by computational challenges caused by the two-stage stochastic programming formulation which requires solving an ensemble of optimization problems. Using quantum amplitude estimation (QAE), quantum computers have shown the theoretic ability to compute expectations with Monte-Carlo methods with quadratically fewer samples than classical methods. In this work, we present a quantum algorithm for computing the expectation term using QAE for given first-stage decisions. Further, we detail methods of computing gradient information from the quantum calculation enabling the application of classical gradient-based optimization techniques. The result is a classical-quantum hybrid method of solving two-stage stochastic programs. These techniques are demonstrated with computational experiments based an engineering optimization problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Decadal-Scale Hydrothermal Alteration of Basalt: Implications for Long-Term Reactivity in Subsurface Technologies

Global demands to secure critical mineral supply chains and managing water resources require innovative resource management strategies. Subsurface basalt reservoirs offer a dual-purpose application, where CO2 enhanced critical metal recovery can be coupled with water remediation strategies for the extraction of economically important and environmentally relevant elements. This study utilizes static batch experiments conducted on Columbia River Basalt Group samples to evaluate long-term fluid–rock interactions relevant to coupled subsurface applications. Samples were reacted under elevated temperature and pressure conditions, for 296 and 4,061 days, providing a unique dataset to assess geochemical evolution, element partitioning, and aqueous chemistry over decadal timescales. The alteration was dominated by silicate, aluminosilicate, and oxide phases. Progressive hydrothermal alteration increased the cation exchange capacity through the formation of secondary minerals (e.g. clays and zeolites), influencing solute retention, ion exchange behavior, and aqueous chemistry. Grain-scale and bulk analyses revealed selective cation release and retention patterns, establishing a mechanistic baseline for predicting element mobility. These geochemical constraints inform the prospective use of CO2-enhanced metal recovery for critical resources (e.g. Co, Ni, Mn, Mg, Ti, Fe) and associated water-quality impacts, providing a foundation for the design and management of engineered fluid–rock systems in basalt reservoirs.

Gibson, Marie N.

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Electrified Vehicle Options in Drayage Fleets

The electrification of drayage fleets offers potential economic and operational benefits, but the financial viability of electrified vehicles remains sensitive to battery cost, energy price, and fleet usage patterns. While total cost of ownership (TCO) is a useful benchmark, fleet operators and investors are equally concerned with investment performance metrics such as payback period (PB) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), which better reflect financial risks and investment return timelines. This study develops a unified techno-economic framework that jointly evaluates TCO, PB, and IRR to determine when electrified trucks become cost-effective alternatives to diesel trucks. Building on a previously developed cost modeling tool and using real-world telematics data from a Class 8 drayage fleet at the Port of Savannah, the analysis incorporates projected battery cost trajectories, electricity and diesel price trends, vehicle efficiency improvements, and multiple battery capacities. Parameter ranges reflect widely cited projections and observed drayage-duty-cycle variability. A surrogate-modeling method approximates economic performance across thousands of battery cost–electricity price combinations, enabling high-resolution identification of conditions that achieve TCO parity, acceptable PB thresholds, and target IRR levels. Additionally, the study estimates the evolving share of the fleet that can feasibly electrify over time under multiple economic metrics. This integrated framework offers a novel, data-driven approach to inform risk-aware decision-making for fleet electrification and supports investment planning under evolving cost and operational conditions.

Sun, Ruixiao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000341768676)

Criteria for Retention of 3013 S1 Containers Based on Relative Risk and Expert Judgment

An evaluation was performed to assess the suitability of thirty-three 3013 containers proposed for retention. These containers have moisture levels greater than 0.08 wt.% – the S1 population. The remainder of the S1 population stored at SRS will be down blended and disposed of by the end of 2028. Based on field surveillance and shelf-life data available to date as well as informed technical judgment, no container is currently expected to fail in its 50-year storage period. However, corrosion risk varies across the S1 population. Relative risks were evaluated using predicted Consensus Scores and their 95% Upper Prediction Limits (UPLs). The predicted values are based on a statistical model of Consensus Score as a function of moisture, chloride, and whether the packaged material was electrorefining scrap packaged at Hanford. Consensus Score has been shown to be a useful indicator of corrosion potential, and the UPL captures uncertainty in the model predictions, providing a conservative indicator of corrosion potential. Using UPLs to determine relative risks, together with expert review, three containers were identified as not suitable for retention, and the remainder were determined to be suitable.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

High-Density Capacitive Energy Storage in Low-Dielectric-Constant Polymer PMMA/2D Mica Nanofillers Heterostructure Composite

The ubiquitous, rising demand for energy storage devices with ultra-high storage capacity and efficiency has drawn tremendous research interest in developing energy storage devices. Dielectric polymers are one of the most suitable materials used to fabricate electrostatic capacitive energy storage devices with thin-film geometry with high power density. In this work, we studied the dielectric properties, electric polarization, and energy density of PMMA/2D Mica nanocomposite capacitors where stratified 2D nanofillers are interfaced between the multiple layers of PMMA thin films using two heterostructure designs of the capacitors, PMMA/2D Mica/PMMA (PMP) and PMMA/2D Mica/PMMA/2D Mica/PMMA (PMPMP). The incorporation of a 2D Mica nanofiller in the low-dielectric-constant PMMA leads to an enhancement in the dielectric constant, with ∆ε ~ 15% and 53% for PMP and PMPMP heterostructures at room temperature. Additionally, a significant improvement in discharged energy density was measured for the PMPMP capacitor (Ud ~ 38 J/cm3 at 825 MV/m) compared to the pristine PMMA (Ud ~ 9.5 J/cm3 at 522 MV/m) and PMP capacitors (Ud ~ 19 J/cm3 at 740 MV/m). This excellent capacitive and energy storage performance of the PMMA/2D Mica heterostructure nanocomposite may inform the fabrication of thin-film, high-density energy storage capacitor devices for potential applications in various platforms.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology

Identifying Strain Stacking Boundaries between Multiphase Domains in Atomically Thin Two-Dimensional Magnets

Stacking engineering of van der Waals materials is an important strategy to control the materials’ properties, such as electronic correlations, ferroelectricity, and layer-dependent two-dimensional magnetism. A timely testbed for the study of the latter is atomically thin chromium trihalides (CrX 3 , X = Cl, Br, I). Notably, by understanding the sliding mechanism between different stacking sequences, control of the stacking arrangement, and thus magnetic properties in CrX 3 , can be achieved. Such insight, however, is currently lacking. Here, in this study, advanced electron microscopy methods are used to identify multiple stacking sequences corresponding to different bulk phases in atomically thin CrX 3 (X = Cl and Br) down to bilayer thickness and with lateral domain sizes as small as tens of nanometers. Indications of nanometer scale transitions and interactions at the stacking boundaries are found, including a universally preferred sliding direction that is consistent with density functional theory calculations and the strain fields at lateral heterostructure boundaries. This study demonstrates the necessity to consider local stacking structures when interpreting averaged magnetic properties measured with macroscale probes. Additionally, the preferred sliding direction insight from this study provides a strategy to control stacking sequence in atomically thin CrX 3 samples during the exfoliation and sample fabrication process.

DFT calculations

Next-Generation Energy Technologies for Connected and Automated On-Road Vehicles (NEXTCAR) - Predictive Data-Driven Vehicle Dynamics and Powertrain Control: from ECU to the Cloud (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

This project developed and demonstrated a predictive, data-driven vehicle control system designed to improve energy efficiency and driving performance. The team created intelligent self-driving car technology that optimizes fuel and electricity use by proactively planning vehicle actions. By combining Level 4 autonomous driving capabilities with vehicle-to-everything (V2X) connectivity, the system enables vehicles to adjust speed and change lanes in response to traffic signals, surrounding vehicles, and road conditions, reducing unnecessary stops and delays. In testing, the system improved vehicle fuel economy by more than 30% and reduced travel time by approximately 10%, compared to a conventional adaptive cruise control baseline. These results demonstrate the technical effectiveness of using predictive, V2X-enabled strategies, such as traffic light timing and surrounding traffic awareness, to inform real-time vehicle powertrain control and driving behavior. Additionally, a supporting cloud platform was developed to provide dispatch and route recommendations as well as to log vehicle data, demonstrating the economic feasibility of this approach at the fleet level. By optimizing dispatching and routing operations, this technology enables electric fleet operators to use their vehicles more efficiently and reduce reliance on diesel backups, lowering both operating costs and energy consumption. Overall, this project’s technology advances the future of clean, energy-efficient transportation, enabling vehicles and fleets to reduce energy waste, cut costs, and lower emissions through intelligent automation and connectivity.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

Best Practices for Resilience Hub Development and Management

The Carbon League and its community partners in East St. Louis, Illinois, have identified five facilities to serve as resilience hubs. These hubs are intended to support the local community through a range of services and resources during blue-sky (everyday), gray-sky (pre-event), and black-sky (emergency) conditions. Transforming these facilities into fully functional resilience hubs requires a broad operational improvement and programmatic planning roadmap. This memo outlines best practices to guide the development of these resilience hubs in East St. Louis, including recommendations for infrastructure services; safety and physical protection; community services; operational protocols; and a phased implementation strategy aligned with realistic funding and capacity constraints. Infrastructure recommendations include strengthening electric power, communications, water, sanitation, and transportation/logistics capabilities, all of which are essential for hubs that may serve as cooling and warming centers, distribution points, and information hubs during emergencies. Safety recommendations focus on accessibility, emergency action planning, indoor air quality, and secure storage of critical equipment. A phased roadmap provides guidance from immediate, low-cost readiness actions to long-term optimization and community integration. Performance metrics and maintenance protocols ensure continuous improvement and operational readiness. This guidance draws on best practices that can be used to support the development of resilient, community-centered hubs capable of enhancing public safety, health, and well-being during everyday operations and emergencies alike.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS

Advanced-Research-on-Integrated-Energy-Systems-Based Analysis to Support Resilient System Upgrades: Energy to Communities Energyshed In-Depth Partnership with Molokai, Hawaii

The Molokai, Hawaii, Energy to Communities (E2C) Energyshed project represents a collaborative effort between the National Laboratory of the Rockies, Shake Energy Collaborative, the Molokai Clean Energy Hui, Sustainable Molokai, and Ho'ahu Energy Cooperative Molokai to advance Molokai's Community Energy Resilience Action Plan (CERAP). Supported by Hawaiian Electric Company and the Hawaii State Energy Office, the initiative aims to develop a community-defined portfolio of renewable energy solutions that enhance energy resilience while aligning with the Hawaiian Electric Integrated Grid Plan (IGP) and Molokai's energy goals. Phase 1 focused on technical analyses and community engagement to co-design feasible energy scenarios. Challenges such as grid upgrades, storage sizing, and inverter ride-through standards were addressed to align technical and operational requirements with community preferences. The project equips Molokai with actionable data and insights to implement energy initiatives while ensuring resilient and culturally informed solutions. Future efforts aim to finalize project designs, secure interconnection agreements, and deploy energy projects that reflect community priorities and technical feasibility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Nonlinear Loss Engineering in Near‐Zero‐Index Bulk Materials

Transparent conducting oxides (TCOs) show unprecedented optical nonlinearities in the near infrared wavelength range, where the real part of their linear refractive index approaches zero. More specifically, the Kerr nonlinearities of these materials have sparked widespread attention due to their magnitude and speed. However, due to the absorptive nature of these nonlinear processes, it is of fundamental interest to further investigate the imaginary component of the nonlinear index. The present work studies the nonlinear optical absorption properties of aluminium‐doped zinc oxide (AZO) thin films in their near‐zero‐index (NZI) spectral window. It is found that the imaginary part of the refractive index is reduced under optical excitation such that the field penetration depth more than doubles. An optically induced shift of the NZI bandwidth of ≈120 nm for a pump intensity of 1.3 TW cm −2 is also demonstrated. Looking into the optically induced spectral redistribution of the probe signal, local net gain is recorded, which is ascribed to a nonlinear adiabatic energy transfer. The present study adds key information about the fundamental interplay between real and imaginary nonlinear indices in NZI media, while advancing parametric amplification as viable direction for loss compensation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

From Bricks to Clicks: Mapping the White Space in Building Innovation

It is a critical national imperative to transform the buildings sector, yet innovation is impeded by deployment failures that leave promising technologies stranded. Conventional market reports and techno-economic analysis provide an insufficient understanding of markets and resource allocation for emerging building technologies. They omit crucial commercialization factors such as ecosystem maturity and adoption friction, where the coordinated participation of a network of suppliers, contractors, financiers, regulators, and integrators is required to scale solutions. This study addresses these gaps by introducing an evaluation framework grounded in front-line data from six years of the DOE's IMPEL incubator, comprising experience from 300 building-sector innovators and the adjacent, complex ecosystem. Our methodology synthesizes top-down market analysis with bottom-up, practitioner-level data across five megatrends: (M1) Affordable materials and industrialized construction; (M2) Healthy and efficient mechanical systems; (M3) Intelligent building operations; (M4) Buildings as grid assets; and (M5) High-density power and cooling for data centers and therein identify twelve "white space" technology opportunities. Next, we develop a multi-criteria scoring rubric to rank these opportunities based on parameters, i.e., Affordability, Quality of Life, Reliability, and Security, yielding composite ‘Demand’ and ‘Maturity’ indices. Our results indicate that the most significant white spaces may not be incremental products but a new class of ‘Ecosystem Enablers’, such as logistics platforms, orchestration layers, and automated compliance software that solve structural deployment gaps. This paper summarizes this transparent, evidence-based, practitioner-informed evaluation framework for policymakers and investors to re-evaluate policy and resource allocation and unlock scalable market transformation.

Singh, Reshma

Restoration of weak localization in bilayer graphene by a molecular thin film

Quantum coherent effects can be probed in multilayer graphene through electronic transport measurements at low temperatures. In particular, bilayer graphene (BLG) is known to be susceptible to quantum interference corrections of the conductivity, presenting weak localization at all electronic densities, and dependent on different scattering mechanisms such as those related to the trigonal warping of the electron dispersion near the K and K′ valleys. Proximity effects with a molecular thin film influence these scattering mechanisms, which can be quantified through the known theory of magnetoconductance for BLG. Here, we present electronic transport measurements in a copper-phthalocyanine (CuPc) / BLG / hexagonal boron nitride (h-BN) heterostructure that suggest the restoration of weak localization in BLG, associated to a reduction of trigonal warping effects, that are known to suppress weak localization in BLG. Additionally, we observe a charge transfer of 3.6×10 12 cm −2 from the BLG to the molecules, as well as a very small degradation of the mobility of the BLG/h-BN heterostructure upon the deposition of CuPc. The molecular arrangement of the CuPc thin film is characterized in a control sample through transmission electron microscopy, that we relate to the electronic transport results.

bilayer graphene

Trust-Based Detection and Mitigation of Cyber Attacks in Distributed Cooperative Control of Islanded AC Microgrids

In this study, we address the challenge of detecting and mitigating cyber attacks in the distributed cooperative control of islanded AC microgrids, with a particular focus on detecting False Data Injection Attacks (FDIAs), a significant threat to the Smart Grid (SG). The SG integrates traditional power systems with communication networks, creating a complex system with numerous vulnerable links, making it a prime target for cyber attacks. These attacks can lead to the disclosure of private data, control network failures, and even blackouts. Unlike machine learning-based approaches that require extensive datasets and mathematical models dependent on accurate system modeling, our method is free from such dependencies. To enhance the microgrid’s resilience against these threats, we propose a resilient control algorithm by introducing a novel trustworthiness parameter into the traditional cooperative control algorithm. Our method evaluates the trustworthiness of distributed energy resources (DERs) based on their voltage measurements and exchanged information, using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to dynamically adjust control actions. We validated our approach through simulations on both the IEEE-34 bus feeder system with eight DERs and a larger microgrid with twenty-two DERs. The results demonstrated a detection accuracy of around 100%, with millisecond range mitigation time, ensuring rapid system recovery. Additionally, our method improved system stability by up to almost 100% under attack scenarios, showcasing its effectiveness in promptly detecting attacks and maintaining system resilience. These findings highlight the potential of our approach to enhance the security and stability of microgrid systems in the face of cyber threats.

Computer Science

Phase diagram and spectroscopic signatures of a supersolid in the quantum ising magnet K 2 Co(SeO 3 ) 2

Supersolid phases are quantum-entangled states of matter exhibiting the dual characteristics of superfluidity and solidity. Theory predicts that hard-core bosons on a triangular lattice can form such phases at half filling and near complete filling. Leveraging an exact mapping between bosons and spin-$\frac{1}{2}$ degrees of freedom, here we show that these phases are realized in the triangular-lattice antiferromagnet K 2 Co(SeO 3 ) 2 . At zero field, neutron diffraction reveals the development of quasi-two-dimensional $\sqrt3$ x $\sqrt3$ magnetic order with Z 3 translational symmetry breaking (solidity), though with reduced amplitude indicating strong quantum fluctuations. These fluctuations manifest as equidistant bands of continuum neutron scattering, where the lowest-energy mode is gapless at K ($\frac{1}{3}$ $\frac{1}{3}$), consistent with broken U(1) spin rotational symmetry (superfluidity). For c-axis-oriented magnetic fields near saturation, we find a second phase consistent with a high-field supersolid. These two supersolids are separated by a pronounced 1/3 magnetization plateau phase that supports coherent spin waves, from which we determine the underlying spin Hamiltonian.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 35, No. 2, July-December 1994]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 179 Consideration of Postaccident Consequences in the Determination of Safety Objectives for Future Nuclear Power Plants in France, D. Queniart, A. Sugier, and J. Lochard; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 187 Nuclear Safety Research: The Phebus FP Severe Accident Experimental Program, P. von der Hardt, A. V. Jones, C. Lecomte, and A. Tattegrain; 205 Containment Performance Analysis of the Advanced Neutron Source Reactor at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, S. H. Kim, R. P. Taleyarkhan, and V. Georgevich; 213 Assessment of Fission Product Deposits in the Reactor Coolant System: The DEVAP Program, G. Le Marois and M. Megnin; 222 Erratum to “A Review of the Available Information on the Triggering Stage of a Steam Explosion," Vol. 35, No. 1, CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 223 Effects of Normal Aging on Calibration and Response Time of Nuclear Plant Resistance Temperature Detectors and Pressure Sensors, H. M. Hashemian; DESIGN FEATURES: 235 Defense in Depth Against the Hydrogen Risk—A European Research Program, F. Fineschi; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 246 Technical Note: A Preliminary Analysis of the Risks to Hong Kong Resulting from Potential Accidents of Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant, Z. Shi and X. Wei; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 253 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; SPECIAL SECTION ON TMI-2 VESSEL INVESTIGATION PROJECT: 256 Three Mile Island—New Findings 15 Years After the Accident A. M. Rubin and E. Beckjord; 269 Relocation of Molten Material to the TMI-2 Lower Head, J. R. Wolf, D. W. Akers, and L. A. Neimark; 280 Insight Into the TMI-2 Core Material Relocation Through Examination of Instrument Tube Nozzles, L. A. Neimark; 288 Physical and Radiochemical Examinations of Debris from the TMI-2 Lower Head, D. W. Akers and B. K. Schuetz; 301 Results of Metallographic Examinations and Mechanical Tests of Pressure Vessel Samples from the TMI-2 Lower Head, D. R. Diercks and G. E. Korth; 313 Margin-to-Failure Calculations for the TMI-2 Vessel, J. Rempe, L. Stickler, S. Chavez, G. Thinnes, R. Witt, and M. Corradini; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 328 1993 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program Results, L. N. Vanden Heuvel, J. W. Cletcher, D. A. Copinger, J. W. Minarick, B. W. Dolan, and P. D. O’Reilley; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 339 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 345 Proposed Rule Changes as of June 30, 1994; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 234 Thirty-First Annual Meeting of the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements; 356 1995 International Incineration Conference; 358 Fifth International Controls and Instrumentation Conference; 359 ANS International Topical Meeting on Safety of Operating Reactors; 359 Fifth International Conference on Nuclear Criticality Safety; 360 International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment Methodology and Applications; 351 The Authors; 357 Reviewers of Nuclear Safety, Vol. 35.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Vesicular Stomatitis Virus Transmission Dynamics Within Its Endemic Range in Chiapas, Mexico

Vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), comprising vesicular stomatitis New Jersey virus (VSNJV) and vesicular stomatitis Indiana virus (VSIV), emerges from its focus of endemic transmission in Southern Mexico to cause sporadic livestock epizootics in the Western United States. A dearth of information on the role of potential arthropod vectors in the endemic region hampers efforts to identify factors that enable endemicity and predict outbreaks. In a two-year, longitudinal study at five cattle ranches in Chiapas, Mexico, insect taxa implicated as VSV vectors (blackflies, sandflies, biting midges, and mosquitoes) were collected and screened for VSV RNA, livestock vesicular stomatitis (VS) cases were monitored, and serum samples were screened for neutralizing antibodies. VS cases were reported during the rainy (n = 20) and post-rainy (n = 2) seasons. Seroprevalence against VSNJV in adult cattle was very high (75–100% per ranch) compared with VSIV (0.6%, all ranches). All four potential vector taxa were sampled, and VSNJV RNA was detected in each of them (11% VSNJV-positive of 874 total pools), while VSIV RNA was only detected in four pools of mosquitoes. Our findings indicate that VSNJV is the dominant serotype across our sampling sites with a variety of potential insect vectors involved in its transmission throughout the year. Although no livestock cases were reported in Chiapas during the dry season, VSNJV was detected in insects during this period, suggesting that mechanisms other than transmission from livestock support VSV endemicity.

Virology

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Abstract Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integratesin-situmeasurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697µmolCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology