Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Internal variability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2024

Predictability of the Minimum Sea Ice Extent from Winter Fram Strait Ice Area Export: Model vs Observations

Observations show predictive skill of the minimum sea ice extent (Min SIE) from late winter anomalous off-shore ice drift along the Eurasian coastline – leading to local ice thickness anomalies at the onset of the melt season – a signal then amplified by the ice-albedo feedback. We assess whether the observed seasonal predictability of September sea ice extent (Sept SIE) from Fram Strait Ice Area Export (FSIAE, a proxy for Eurasian coastal divergence) is present in Global Climate Model (GCM) large ensembles, namely the CESM2-LE, GISS-E2.1-G, FLOR-LE, CNRM-CM6-1, and CanESM5. All models show distinct periods where winter FSIAE anomalies are negatively correlated with the May sea ice thickness (May SIT) anomalies along the Eurasian coastline, and the following Sept Arctic SIE, as in observations. Counter-intuitively, several models show occasional periods where winter FSIAE anomalies are positively correlated with the following Sept SIE anomalies when the mean ice thickness is large or late in the simulation when the sea ice is thin, and/or when internal variability increases. More importantly, periods with weak correlation between FSIAE and the Sept SIE dominate, suggesting that summer melt processes dominate over late winter preconditioning and May SIT anomalies. In general, we find that the coupling between the FSIAE and ice thickness anomalies along the Eurasian coastline is an ubiquitous feature of GCMs and that the relationship with the following Sept SIE is dependent on the mean Arctic sea ice thickness.

off-shore ice drift↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gigatraj: An Atmospheric Trajectory Model

Atmospheric trajectory models have a long history of success in tracking air motions in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere over periods of up to a few days. Parcels have been traced backwards from observations to identify whatever phenomena (strong convection, volcanic eruptions, rocket launches, etc.) put their signature on them. Parcels have also been initialized at a known event and traced forward to examine their subsequent physical and chemical evolution. We describe a new trajectory model, "gigatraj," that aims to increase exibility by (a) making it straightforward to use new meteorological data sources, including those not based on regular latitude-longitude grids; (b) enabling a run-time choice of vertical coordinate system for kinematic and/or quasi-isentropic calculations; (c) allowing for the output of arbitrary meteorological products, selectable by the user and interpolated to the parcels' locations and times. The model can be run in a serial or parallel processing environment, so that large numbers of parcels can be traced in a reasonable time. Information is presented on model accuracy and performance. The former is demonstrated by runs using both test-pattern winds (comparing expected paths with actual output) and real-world winds (comparing forward and backward runs to characterize how well parcels retrace their paths). Sample cases are also shown, including a reverse domain lling (RDF) calculation illustrating a tropopause fold event. Model output can be displayed using the new Visualization And Lagrangian dynamics Immersive eXtended Reality (VALIXR) system, and an example will be shown. In addition, we describe work to incorporate a version of gigatraj into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) of NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation O ce (GMAO) at Goddard Space Flight Center. This enables trajectory calculations to be performed within the running GEOS model at the latter's native time resolution, instead of using the winds from every few hours. It also provides access to all of GEOS's internal variables as they are calculated. This module may be useful, for example, for tracking rapid chemical changes in a Lagrangian framework.

dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hybridized Discontinuous Galerkin Methods for Computational Fluid Dynamics

Hybridizable Discontinuous Galerkin (HDG) methods hold promise for any applications with significant advection character, including thermal hydraulics in light water reactors and advanced reactor concepts and fluid models of plasmas in magnetic confinement fusion. Its features include natural upwinding, local element conservation, and extensibility to arbitrarily high order accuracy. In the last fiscal year we have implemented HDG in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). We developed a first-of-its-kind automatic static condensation system in MOOSE’s underlying finite element library libMesh which can condense out arbitrarily many internal variables. Finally, we developed the first preconditioner for HDG discretizations of the Navier-Stokes equations which shows robust performance across a wide range of problem sizes and Reynolds numbers. This preconditioner yields solution times that are equivalent to the fastest developed for industry standard finite volume methods. Moreover, the arbitrarily high-order nature of HDG makes it a prime candidate for acceleration via graphical processing units (GPUs). We believe these developments will hold significant importance for future DOE Nuclear Energy (NE) and Fusion Energy Science (FES) programs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recent Accelerated Decadal Shift in Winter North American Temperature Patterns Under Pacific‐Atlantic Decadal Variability

Global warming and internal climate variability have changed winter temperature extreme regimes in North America, affecting droughts and wildfires in the western United States. However, how internal climate variability influences North American winter temperature extreme patterns remains poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate that the recent winter North American surface air temperature (SAT) exhibits an accelerated decadal alternation between Warm West-Cold East (WWCE) and Cold West-Warm East (CWWE) dipoles because their variations show shorter decadal periods during 1990–2022 than during 1950–1989 and are regulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variability. While the winter WWCE dipole mainly linked to North Pacific blocking events exhibited a smaller mean amplitude during 1990–2022 than 1950–1989 due to the weakened positive PDO phase during 1990–2022 under the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the winter CWWE showed a larger mean amplitude during 1990–2022 due to the stronger negative PDO phase than during 1950–1989. Our results further suggest that the recent rapid decadal shift of North American winter temperatures is primarily attributed to the PDO variability likely due to anthropogenic warming under the positive AMO.

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Leading Modes of Climate Variability in the CMIP Archives

The adequate simulation of internal climate variability is key for our understanding of climate as it underpins efforts to attribute historical events, predict on seasonal and decadal time scales, and isolate the effects of climate change. Here the skill of models in reproducing observed modes of climate variability is assessed, both across and within the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 archives, in order to document model capabilities, progress across ensembles, and persisting biases. A focus is given to the well-observed tropical and extratropical modes that exhibit small intrinsic variability relative to model structural uncertainty. These include El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the northern and southern annular modes (NAM and SAM). Significant improvements are identified in models’ representation of many modes. Canonical biases, which involve both amplitudes and patterns, are generally reduced across model generations. For example, biases in ENSO-related equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature, which extend too far westward, and associated atmospheric teleconnections, which are too weak, are reduced. Stronger tropical expression of the PDO in successive CMIP generations has characterized their improvement, with some CMIP6 models generating patterns that lie within the range of observed estimates. For the NAO, NAM, and SAM, pattern correlations with observations are generally higher than for other modes and slight improvements are identified across successive model generations. Finally, for ENSO and PDO spectra and extratropical modes, changes are small compared to internal variability, precluding definitive statements regarding improvement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1975

Analysis of effect of internal and operating variables on performance of SVDS constraint model (ABIND)

An examination of the factors which modify the simulation of a constraint in the motion of the aft attach points of the orbiter and external tank during separation has been made. The factors considered were both internal (spring and damper constants) and external (friction coefficient and dynamic pressure). The results show that an acceptable choice of spring/damper constant combinations exist over the expected range of the external factors and that the choice is consistent with a practical integration interval. The constraint model is shown to produce about a 10 percent increase in the relative body pitch angles over the unconstrained case whereas the MDC-STL constraint model is shown to produce about a 38 percent increase.

Pendergrass, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The inter-outburst behavior of cataclysmic variables

Existing International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) and American Association of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO) archive data was used to accomplish a large scale study of what happens to the ultraviolet flux of accretion disk systems during the quiescent intervals between outbursts and how it relates to the preceding outburst characteristics of amplitude and width. The data sample involved multiple IUE observations for 16 dwarf novae and 8 novae along with existing optical coverage. Results indicate that most systems show correlated ultraviolet (UV) flux behavior with interoutburst phase, with 60 percent of the dwarf novae and 50 percent of the novae having decreasing flux trends while 33 percent of the dwarf novae and 38 percent of the novae show rising UV flux during the quiescent interval. All of the dwarf novae with decreasing UV fluxes at 1475A have orbital periods longer than 4.4 hours, while all (except BV Cen) with flat or rising fluxes at 1475A have orbital periods less than two hours. There are not widespread correlations of the UV fluxes with the amplitude of the preceding outburst and no correlations with the width of the outburst. From a small sample (7) that have relatively large quiescent V magnitude changes between the IUE observations, most show a strong correlation between the UV and optical continuum. Interpretation of the results is complicated by not being able to determine how much the white dwarf contributes to the ultraviolet flux. However, it is now evident that noticeable changes are occurring in the hot zones in accreting systems long after the outburst, and not only for systems that are dominated by the white dwarf. Whether these differences are due to different outburst mechanisms or to changes on white dwarfs which provide varying contributions to the UV flux remains to be determined.

Szkody, Paula↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wide range of possible trajectories of North Atlantic climate in a warming world

Decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean impacts regional and global climate, yet changes in internal decadal variability under anthropogenic radiative forcing remain largely unexplored. Here we use the Community Earth System Model 2 Large Ensemble under historical and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 future radiative forcing scenarios and show that the ensemble spread in northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) more than doubles during the mid-twenty-first century, highlighting an exceptionally wide range of possible climate states. Furthermore, there are strikingly distinct trajectories in these SSTs, arising from differences in the North Atlantic deep convection among ensemble members starting by 2030. We propose that these are stochastically triggered and subsequently amplified by positive feedbacks involving coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions. Freshwater forcing associated with global warming seems necessary for activating these feedbacks, accentuating the impact of external forcing on internal variability. Further investigation on seven additional large ensembles affirms the robustness of our findings. By monitoring these mechanisms in real time and extending dynamical model predictions after positive feedbacks activate, we may achieve skillful long-lead North Atlantic decadal predictions that are effective for multiple decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

A viscoplastic theory with thermodynamic considerations

A thermodynamic foundation using the concept of internal state variables is given for a general theory of viscoplasticity for initially isotropic materials. Three, fundamental, internal, state variables are admitted; they are: a tensorial back stress for kinematic effects, and scalar drag and yield strengths for isotropic effects. All three are considered to evolve phenomenologically according to competitive processes between strain hardening, deformation induced dynamic recovery, and thermally induced static recovery. Within this phenomenological framework, a thermodynamically admissible set of evolution equations is proposed. The theory allows each of the three internal variables to be composed as a sum of independently evolving constituents. The evolution of internal state can also include terms that vary linearly with the external variable rates, whose presence affects the energy dissipation properties of a material.

Freed, A. D.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A viscoplastic theory with thermodynamic considerations

A thermodynamic foundation using the concept of internal state variables is given for a general theory of viscoplasticity for initially isotropic materials. Three fundamental, internal, state variables are admitted; they are: a tensorial back stress for kinematic effects, and scalar drag and yield strengths for isotropic effects. All three are considered to evolve phenomenologically according to competitive processes between strain hardening, deformation-induced dynamic recovery, and thermally induced static recovery. Within this phenomenological framework, a thermodynamically admissible set of evolution equations is proposed. The theory allows each of the three internal variables to be composed as a sum of independently evolving constituents. The evolution of internal state can also include terms that vary linearly with the external variable rates, whose presence affects the energy dissipation properties of a material.

Freed, A. D.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Predictions of Poisson's ratio in cross-ply laminates containing matrix cracks and delaminations

A damage-dependent constitutive model for laminated composites has been developed for the combined damage modes of matrix cracks and delaminations. The model is based on the concept of continuum damage mechanics and uses second-order tensor valued internal state variables to represent each mode of damage. The internal state variables are defined as the local volume average of the relative crack face displacements. Since the local volume for delaminations is specified at the laminate level, the constitutive model takes the form of laminate analysis equations modified by the internal state variables. Model implementation is demonstrated for the laminate engineering modulus E(x) and Poisson's ratio nu(xy) of quasi-isotropic and cross-ply laminates. The model predictions are in close agreement to experimental results obtained for graphite/epoxy laminates.

Harris, Charles E.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Viscoplasticity: A thermodynamic formulation

A thermodynamic foundation using the concept of internal state variables is given for a general theory of viscoplasticity, as it applies to initially isotropic materials. Three fundamental internal state variables are admitted. They are: a tensor valued back stress for kinematic effects, and the scalar valued drag and yield strengths for isotropic effects. All three are considered to phenomenologically evolve according to competitive processes between strain hardening, strain induced dynamic recovery, and time induced static recovery. Within this phenomenological framework, a thermodynamically admissible set of evolution equations is put forth. This theory allows each of the three fundamental internal variables to be composed as a sum of independently evolving constituents.

Freed, A. D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

On Gibbs Equilibrium and Hillert Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics

During his time at Royal Institute of Technology (Kungliga Tekniska högskolan) in Sweden, the present author learned nonequilibrium thermodynamics from Mats Hillert. The key concepts are the separation of internal and external variables of a system and the definitions of potentials and molar quantities. In equilibrium thermodynamics derived by Gibbs, the internal variables are not independent and can be fully evaluated from given external variables. While irreversible thermodynamics led by Onsager focuses on internal variables though often mixed with external variables. Hillert integrated them together by first emphasizing their differences and then examining their connections. His philosophy was reflected by the title of his book “Phase Equilibria, Phase Diagrams and Phase Transformations” that puts equilibrium, nonequilibrium, and internal processes on equal footing. Here, in the present paper honoring Hillert, the present author reflects his experiences with Hillert and his work in last 40 years and expresses his gratitude for all the wisdom and support from him in terms of “Hillert nonequilibrium thermodynamics” and discusses some recent topics that the present author has been working on.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Separating Climate Signals with Machine Learning

To better prepare for future changes in the water cycle, it is vital to understand the regional effects of anthropogenic climate change and internal climate variability on precipitation. With existing methods, there is uncertainty regarding the regional patterns of these climate processes. We propose using machine learning to decompose seasonal total and extreme precipitation (calculated by Risser et. al., 2019) into components caused by each of the following signals: anthropogenic forcing, internal variability, and modes of natural climate variability (such as El Niño/ Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the Pacific North American teleconnection).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗