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LMI Automated Air Cargo Operations Market Research and Forecast

Air cargo companies and aircraft manufacturers are making significant investments to enable the movement of cargo via various levels of automated aircraft, such as aircraft with simplified operations requiring a pilot, remotely monitored or piloted aircraft, and fully autonomous aircraft. These investments will enable greater utilization of aircraft while unlocking new air markets traditionally served by ground transportation only. Many cargo companies and aerospace experts envision an operating environment where a single pilot can remotely pilot numerous aircraft for significant increases in aircraft utilization. The future operating environment is also expected to include air cargo companies flying smaller aircraft from airports and distribution centers outside of major U.S. cities directly to city centers, avoiding congested roads and increasing the velocity of cargo shipments, particularly those that are high-value, time-sensitive, and security sensitive (e.g., pharmaceuticals). These are just a few benefits and use cases cargo companies and aerospace experts see with the advancement of automated aircraft. To better understand industry’s direction, NASA asked the LMI team to research the forecasted market, timeline, risks, and opportunities for integrating unmanned air cargo vehicles into the National Airspace System (NAS) for the development and prioritization of the NASA Air Traffic Management Exploration’s research portfolio. To begin the market assessment, we gathered data via numerous interviews with key stakeholders and subject matter experts and literature reviews. We then incorporated the data into a custom-developed systems dynamics model and visualization dashboard. The systems dynamics model classifies the size of the market (e.g., overall fleet size of automated aircraft) for four distinct use cases over the next 20 years. The model projects the year in which various types of automated aircraft will enter the commercial cargo market based on our team’s collective research on when the aircraft will become viable due to manufacturing and certification timelines and the lifespan of current, traditional aircraft in service, to name a few factors. While this report defines our team’s estimated timeline of entry and growth, the model is dynamic—it enables NASA users to change variables based on future-year events. If the necessary technology does not mature in accordance with our assumptions, then NASA can change the entry of service point to a future year to evaluate the changes in market size in the out years. This flexibility will be key to deciding when and how NASA should invest in various areas.

air traffic management↗

Utilizing Gaps and Key Performance Parameters to Inform NASA Environmental Control and Life Support and Human Health and Performance Capability Technology Decisions

Human spaceflight is a complex endeavor requiring multiple capabilities for transportation, crew health, scientific goals, and safe return to Earth. The difference between spaceflight proven capabilities and those needed for future exploration architectures is defined as a capability gap. Capability gaps are not technology specific. Each capability gap is approachable with a wide array of technologies that have unique benefits and challenges. Determining what a capability’s relevant and distinguishing key performance parameters (KPPs) are for a mission is critical. Mass, power, and volume are always constrained and important, but defining these in a way normalized by performance is challenging. Additionally, KPP definition for reliability, dormancy, and integration needs are very important and still evolving. This paper provides the approach of the Environmental Control and Life Support – Crew Health and Performance (ECLSS-CHP) System Capability Leadership Team (SCLT) has used to define gaps and KPPs in support of the NASA’s Capabilities Integration Team data call objectives. The nine ECLSS-CHP capability areas are decomposed to capabilities with ~76 gaps and supported with KPPs. Rather than defining very detailed gaps, ECLSS-CHP defines high-level gaps to be technology agnostic. Within a gap, detailed KPPs are defined to both compare technologies and measure progress within a technology over time. Ideally, KPPs are clearly defined, widely communicated both internally and externally, and provide a common nomenclature to describe the state of the art and the degree of improvement required for exploration missions. KPPs help define when the gap is closed, and the core mission objectives can be accomplished. Further technology improvements to enhance the capability, as measured by improved KPPs, must then be weighed against investments in open capability gaps that prevent NASA from achieving its exploration missions. It is uncommon that a technology maturation to improve all the relevant KPPs simultaneously but using KPPs is a critical technology investment decision making component. In addition to traditional technology selections, KPPs are informing how investments in ground testing prior to and in parallel with ISS technology demonstrations are required to improve reliability KPPs. The collection of all major technology activities within a capability area are captured on technology roadmaps to communicate how diverse program activities are coordinated to close gaps and infuse into exploration mission needs. A selection of ECLSS-CHP gaps and KPPs and their formulation, current state, and how they inform capability roadmap planning are discussed.

Life Support↗

Strategy for Developing Technologies for Megawatt-class Nuclear Electric Propulsion Systems

In late fiscal year 2020, the Space Nuclear Propulsion (SNP) project began the process of formulating an investment strategy to support development of the technologies required for a high-power (megawatt-class) nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) system capable of performing human-scale missions. This activity was initiated concurrent with several high-level studies and assessments were either under way or had just concluded. Studies of human-scale Mars missions have been performed several times over the past two decades. One of the most recent studies examined opposition-class human Mars missions to occur in the late 2030s timeframe [1,2]. The mission architecture assumed a hybrid NEP/chem-propelled vehicle that used a high specific impulse (Isp) NEP-system and a liquid oxygen (LOx)-liquid methane high thrust chemical stage (two 110 kN (25 klbf) thrust, 365 s Isp engines) for maneuvers performed to enter and exit gravity wells. Trajectory analyses performed in this study showed that such a mission could be performed with 2-4 MWe directed into the electric propulsion system (operating for 20,000+ hours), with the large range representing different opposition-class Mars mission opportunities and permutations on the trajectory design, concept of operations, and technology choices. In 2020, the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) performed a study to evaluate the maturity of the different technologies required for nuclear propulsion systems [3]. The executive summary of this report provided the following top-level conclusions: • “The majority of critical technologies for… NEP/Chem… systems are relatively immature” • “TRLs [technology readiness levels] in the literature are often overestimated” • “The majority of critical technologies… for NEP/Chem… systems are at a relatively high level of advancement degree of difficulty (AD2 > 4) for maturation, requiring a dual development approach” • “The proper assessment of baseline TRL and AD2 values and the estimation of requirements and resources required for advancement have been consistent issues for NEP,” • “Non-advocate reviews should occur at the start of a technology program and at all key milestones.” In 2021, the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) issued a separate report [4] identifying the “primary technical and programmatic challenges, merits, and risks for maturing space nuclear propulsion technologies of interest to a future human Mars exploration mission.” That work contained several important findings, including: • “Developing a MWe-class NEP system for the baseline mission would require increasing power by orders of magnitude relative to NEP system flight- or ground-based technology demonstrations completed to date.” • “Subscale in-space flight testing of NEP systems cannot address many of the risks and potential failure modes associated with the baseline mission NEP system. With sufficient M&S [modeling & simulation] and ground testing, including modular subsystem tests at full scale and power, flight qualification requirements can be met by the cargo missions that will precede the first crewed mission to Mars. Fully integrated ground testing may not be required.” • “As a result of low and intermittent investment over the past several decades, it is unclear if even an aggressive program would be able to develop an NEP system capable of executing the baseline mission in 2039.” These efforts motivated the SNP project to investigate the technologies available for a megawatt-class high power nuclear electric propulsion system. That system is illustrated schematically in Figure 1 and is comprised of five separate top-level critical technology elements (CTEs). 1. Nuclear Reactor – Thermal power source for the system, utilizing high-assay low enriched uranium (HALEU) as the nuclear fuel. Reactor radiation shielding is also included in this CTE. 2. Power Conversion – Operates as a thermodynamic cycle, accepting nuclear reactor thermal power as an input and converting it to mechanical power. 3. Power Management and Distribution (PMAD) – Accepts as an input mechanical power from the power conversion system, which is used to generate electrical power. The PMAD system also distributes the generated electrical power to all other parts of the spacecraft, including the high-power EP system. The PMAD system may also perform duties such as isolation, fault detection, and power transformation/rectification for different spacecraft systems, including the thrusters. 4. Electric Propulsion (EP) – Accepts as an input electrical power, which is used to accelerate a propellant to high speeds to produce thrust. This system includes the power processing unit (PPU), which converts the power it receives to the correct current and voltage required by the thrusters, and the propellant storage and feed systems, which contain and meter the flow of propellant to the thrusters. 5. Thermal Management (Radiators/Heat Rejection) – The cold side of the thermodynamic power conversion cycle, accepts thermal power from the power conversion system and radiatively rejects that heat to space. In this paper, we describe the SNP project formulation and investment strategy that aims to accomplish the research and development required to advance the technology readiness for each CTE. The strategy relies heavily upon experimental testing supported by modeling and simulation to yield realistic assessments of the technologies, which in turn will be used to inform future NEP system-level design decisions and any potential technology downselects.

Kurt A Polzin↗

Seeding Innovative Ideas and Partnering with the Ecosystem

Jenn Gustetic will talk about how NASA selects ideas and collaborates with the ecosystem to develop new technologies for NASA’s portfolio. She will explain how the organization encourages collaboration, co-invests to develop ideas from lab to market, and acts as the hub-and-spoke of the ecosystem. Jenn will also discuss NASA’s journey to break silos and work horizontally across programs. • Gathering and evaluating ideas internally and externally with diverse players – engaging communities, being the hub-and-spoke of the ecosystem, and encouraging collaboration through co-investments • Identify the best ideas, funding ideas from maturation to hand-off with fluctuating budgets, and managing IP and tech transfer • Balancing investments in projects that address NASA’s needs with higher risk ideas that may not have an obvious application • Transitioning ideas to the next phase – training people and teams and ensuring ownership • Developing a 3.0 innovation capacity strategy – disrupting silos, enabling the ecosystem to work seamlessly together, and taking people and leaders along

innovation↗

Relating Lightning Activity to the Convective Evolution of Pre-Genesis Tropical Disturbances

Lightning and environmental characteristics are analyzed for National Hurricane Center (NHC) invest disturbances. For 2019-2021, Atlantic NHC invest tracks are grouped into disturbances that eventually developed into tropical cyclones (TCs) and ones that did not. Data from the NASA/NOAA Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is used to quantify potential differences in total optical energy, flash extent density, and flash area between the groups. To provide environmental context to the lightning results, vertical profiles from the NOAA Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) dataset will be investigated. Specifically, the profiles will provide insight into the temperature and moisture structure of the invests. In addition to the composite analysis, interesting cases of tropical cyclogenesis will be examined in further detail. Overall, this work seeks to further our understanding of lightning properties and convective environments in tropical cyclogenesis.

Justin W Whitaker↗

NASA Strategy for Technology Development

At the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), foresight is a coordinated, iterative, and continual process for making informed decisions. NASA faces diverse and relatively unique challenges and opportunities as the leading U.S. agency for aeronautics development, cutting-edge scientific discovery, and human space exploration. To address these challenges and leverage opportunities, NASA uses foresight to strategically plan technology development across four mission directorates: Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, Space Technology Mission Directorate, Science Mission Directorate, and Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (recently separated into the new Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate and Space Operations Mission Directorate). The mission directorates leverage a broad community of experts and partners to incorporate technology foresight into mission and program planning. Through this process NASA realizes tangible benefits to the agency’s science, technology, and exploration programs. As an independent office, NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (OTPS) provides strategic advice, supported by independent assessments and rigorous analysis, to inform NASA senior leadership on key areas to align mission and agency-level activities. OTPS serves as a trusted authority to inform technology strategy at the agency to enable future missions. Specifically, OTPS coordinates and uses inputs from a broad community of experts, both internal and external to NASA, to inform decision making for technology plans, investments, and partnerships. OTPS develops and maintains the NASA Technology Taxonomy to standardize communication across the agency’s diverse technology portfolio and the related Strategic Technology Investment Plan that integrates priorities and informs technology investment. Through these efforts, OTPS has refined elements of foresight-informed strategic planning that may be applicable to other technology-driven industries where foresight is essential for resilience. This chapter describes the processes of foresight for technology development at NASA and provides insight into the value the agency derives from these processes. The chapter further describes the role of OTPS as an independent advisory office that supports NASA’s efforts to capitalize on foresight and strategic technology planning. We present these examples with consideration for how organizations in defense, security, and other technology-driven industries can operationalize foresight in their own strategic technology development.

Erica Rodgers↗

Development of a Ground Multi-Mission Low-Cost Optical Terminal (LCOT) for Free-Space Optical Communications

Once confined to the realm of laboratory experiments and theoretical papers, space-based laser communications (lasercomm) are on the verge of achieving mainstream status. Organizations from Facebook to NASA, and missions from cubesats to Orion are employing lasercomm to achieve gigabit communication speeds at mass and power requirements lower than that of traditional radio frequency (RF) methods. Since first demonstrating free-space optical communications services with Lunar Laser Communications Demonstration (LLCD) in 2013, NASA has invested in developing optical communications technologies and capabilities to enhancing its space communications networks. Along with evolving optical space terminals, NASA is also developing lasercomm grounds stations capable of meeting the rapidly increasing data volume demands of upcoming missions, from low-earth to lunar orbits and beyond and integrating these advanced capabilities into its Near-Space and Deep Space Networks. To meet this emerging need, the Low-Cost Optical Terminal (LCOT) project at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) is designing, building and validating a prototype for a flexible, multi-mission, and economical optical ground terminal that could be used as a blueprint for a global network of optical ground stations, capable of supporting a wide variety of missions. To date a major impediment to widespread adoption of laser communication has been the lack of an existing ground network infrastructure. A mission that wishes to take advantage of laser communication not only needs to invest in an optical space terminal, but it must also finance the creation of ground terminals to receive the downlink signal. This adds significant additional cost. Missions that do decide to incur the cost of financing a network of ground terminals end up building highly specialized optical receivers that are operable as receivers for that specific mission only. Significant Non-Recurring Engineering (NRE) cost is invested to build highly specialized one-of-a-kind ground terminals that go into storage after that particular mission is over. This is not an economical approach and does nothing to grow the number of optical ground stations available to future missions. In essence each mission that wants to take advantage of the benefits of lasercom has to start from scratch to provide a ground terminal network to support it. As long as this is the case, the cost for using laser communications will be too high for most missions to consider. LCOT intends to close this gap in technology by designing and developing a standard optical ground terminal design that is flexible enough to serve as a receiver for a wide range of future missions – a ground terminal that can be quickly reconfigured to receive downlinks at different wavelengths using different signal formats. Not only does LCOT have the industry-building objectives of utilizing commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) components to the maximum extent possible, but also spurs the commercial development of other necessary lasercomm components not currently offered by industry. Finally, LCOT will give NASA scientists and engineers a facility where they can gain real-world experience with optical communications. It will give engineers a cost-effective way to try out new concepts and processes by providing the infrastructure for such testing. In this way it is hoped LCOT will serve as a stimulus for innovation in optical communications and speed its widespread adoption by future missions. The LCOT is comprised of five subsystems: Free-Space Optical, Transceiver, Amplifier, Monitor and Control, and Observatory Infrastructure. In August 2021, the LCOT team installed a 70 cm telescope, developed by Planewave Instruments that was optimized for optical communications. Free-Space Optical subsystem comprises of the telescope and its associated hardware, including a transmitter optical assembly, wide field cameras, two optical benches, and an adaptive optics subsystem. The transmit optical assembly, a unique concept design, is a cluster of four functionally independent transmit subassemblies located on the receive telescope. In addition to receiving optical signals and directing the expanded beam with high precision to the space terminal, it also performs tracking functions. The transmit optical assembly will support operations from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) through lunar and will be used as a template for industry manufacturing. The Optical Infrastructure subsystem is responsible for providing environmentally controlled shelters for LCOT equipment and various other systems. To maintain the safety and proper functionality of the telescope, a 16 ft Astrohaven clamshell dome procured which provides all-sky coverage without the need to rotate the dome. Additionally, Atmospheric Monitoring Assembly (AMA) will be part of optical infrastructure subsystem to ensure accurate performance of the LCOT. Like existing optical ground stations, LCOT will measure standard weather station parameters, infrared all sky image of cloud cover, and cloud height. LCOT, however, adds requirements for measuring night time seeing and, in the future, daytime seeing. Unlike other optical ground terminals, the LCOT is transceiver agnostic; user transceivers may be duplex transceivers, standalone receivers, or standalone transmitters with or without acquisition beacon functionality. As such, the LCOT project accommodates testing with external customer transceivers in a flexible manor, further complimenting its intended multi-mission goals. Another unique component of LCOT is the use of a new amplifier technology – the Very Large Mode Area (VLMA) amplifiers. This new technology allows LCOT to avoid the issues faced by previous laser communications ground terminals, gives users more flexibility and modular capability, and is capable of reaching an order of magnitude higher peak power than traditional High Power Optical Amplifiers (HPOA). One drawback of the VLMA HPOA approach is that the amplified light is output into free-space. The solution developed by LCOT is an optics train that couples the output of the VLMA amplifier into a short fiber for transport to the transmit telescopes with high efficiency. Like many of the LCOT components, a set of detailed manufacturing drawings have been created for the optics train to allow any machine shop with a multi-axis Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machine to fabricate the piece parts from commonly available materials. In line with the goals of LCOT, the monitor and control functions are developed as a modular and flexible system with the ability to support future hardware or algorithm changes, minimizing disruptions. A main priority of development in the Monitor and Control Subsystem (MCS) is the safety monitor system.

laser communication↗

Development of a Ground Multi-mission Low Cost Optical Terminal(LCOT) for Free-Space Optical Communication

Once confined to the realm of laboratory experiments and theoretical papers, space-based laser communications (lasercomm) are on the verge of achieving mainstream status. Organizations from Facebook to NASA, and missions from cubesats to Orion are employing lasercomm to achieve gigabit communication speeds at mass and power requirements lower than that of traditional radio frequency (RF) methods. Since first demonstrating free-space optical communications services with Lunar Laser Communications Demonstration (LLCD) in 2013, NASA has invested in developing optical communications technologies and capabilities to enhancing its space communications networks. Along with evolving optical space terminals, NASA is also developing lasercomm grounds stations capable of meeting the rapidly increasing data volume demands of upcoming missions, from low-earth to lunar orbits and beyond and integrating these advanced capabilities into its Near-Space and Deep Space Networks. To meet this emerging need, the Low-Cost Optical Terminal (LCOT) project at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) is designing, building and validating a prototype for a flexible, multi-mission, and economical optical ground terminal that could be used as a blueprint for a global network of optical ground stations, capable of supporting a wide variety of missions. To date a major impediment to widespread adoption of laser communication has been the lack of an existing ground network infrastructure. A mission that wishes to take advantage of laser communication not only needs to invest in an optical space terminal, but it must also finance the creation of ground terminals to receive the downlink signal. This adds significant additional cost. Missions that do decide to incur the cost of financing a network of ground terminals end up building highly specialized optical receivers that are operable as receivers for that specific mission only. Significant Non-Recurring Engineering (NRE) cost is invested to build highly specialized one-of-a-kind ground terminals that go into storage after that particular mission is over. This is not an economical approach and does nothing to grow the number of optical ground stations available to future missions. In essence each mission that wants to take advantage of the benefits of lasercom has to start from scratch to provide a ground terminal network to support it. As long as this is the case, the cost for using laser communications will be too high for most missions to consider. LCOT intends to close this gap in technology by designing and developing a standard optical ground terminal design that is flexible enough to serve as a receiver for a wide range of future missions – a ground terminal that can be quickly reconfigured to receive downlinks at different wavelengths using different signal formats. Not only does LCOT have the industry-building objectives of utilizing commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) components to the maximum extent possible, but also spurs the commercial development of other necessary lasercomm components not currently offered by industry. Finally, LCOT will give NASA scientists and engineers a facility where they can gain real-world experience with optical communications. It will give engineers a cost-effective way to try out new concepts and processes by providing the infrastructure for such testing. In this way it is hoped LCOT will serve as a stimulus for innovation in optical communications and speed its widespread adoption by future missions. The LCOT is comprised of five subsystems: Free-Space Optical, Transceiver, Amplifier, Monitor and Control, and Observatory Infrastructure. In August 2021, the LCOT team installed a 70 cm telescope, developed by Planewave Instruments that was optimized for optical communications. Free-Space Optical subsystem comprises of the telescope and its associated hardware, including a transmitter optical assembly, wide field cameras, two optical benches, and an adaptive optics subsystem. The transmit optical assembly, a unique concept design, is a cluster of four functionally independent transmit subassemblies located on the receive telescope. In addition to receiving optical signals and directing the expanded beam with high precision to the space terminal, it also performs tracking functions. The transmit optical assembly will support operations from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) through lunar and will be used as a template for industry manufacturing. The Optical Infrastructure subsystem is responsible for providing environmentally controlled shelters for LCOT equipment and various other systems. To maintain the safety and proper functionality of the telescope, a 16 ft Astrohaven clamshell dome procured which provides all-sky coverage without the need to rotate the dome. Additionally, Atmospheric Monitoring Assembly (AMA) will be part of optical infrastructure subsystem to ensure accurate performance of the LCOT. Like existing optical ground stations, LCOT will measure standard weather station parameters, infrared all sky image of cloud cover, and cloud height. LCOT, however, adds requirements for measuring night time seeing and, in the future, daytime seeing. Unlike other optical ground terminals, the LCOT is transceiver agnostic; user transceivers may be duplex transceivers, standalone receivers, or standalone transmitters with or without acquisition beacon functionality. As such, the LCOT project accommodates testing with external customer transceivers in a flexible manor, further complimenting its intended multi-mission goals. Another unique component of LCOT is the use of a new amplifier technology – the Very Large Mode Area (VLMA) amplifiers. This new technology allows LCOT to avoid the issues faced by previous laser communications ground terminals, gives users more flexibility and modular capability, and is capable of reaching an order of magnitude higher peak power than traditional High Power Optical Amplifiers (HPOA). One drawback of the VLMA HPOA approach is that the amplified light is output into free-space. The solution developed by LCOT is an optics train that couples the output of the VLMA amplifier into a short fiber for transport to the transmit telescopes with high efficiency. Like many of the LCOT components, a set of detailed manufacturing drawings have been created for the optics train to allow any machine shop with a multi-axis Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machine to fabricate the piece parts from commonly available materials. In line with the goals of LCOT, the monitor and control functions are developed as a modular and flexible system with the ability to support future hardware or algorithm changes, minimizing disruptions. A main priority of development in the Monitor and Control Subsystem (MCS) is the safety monitor system.

Haleh Safavi↗

NASA’s Electric Aircraft Propulsion Research: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow

NASA has been making investments since ~2015 in technologies related to electric aircraft propulsion. These investments span all-electric with our four passenger X-plane and electric vertical lift studies, to regional flight demonstrators and targeted technology maturation programs. These latter two areas are focused ultimately on reducing fuel burn and overall energy use in transport-class aircraft, with the goal of reducing carbon impact of aviation on our planet. Key technology contributions include such as electric machines, power electronics, cables/bus bars, fault management systems, controls and systems studies, and enabling materials. Today we are seeing the fundamental technology investments manifest themselves in flight demonstrations, that are aimed at impacting aircraft entering service 2035-2040 time range. These efforts have largely been aimed at megawatt scale technologies that can enable hybrid electric or mildly distributed airplane concepts. While these concepts offer benefits to regional and single isle aircraft it is thought that a more fully electrified propulsion system requiring greater than 10 MW of distributed power offers more possible pathways to configure the propulsion-airframe system to gain new efficiencies. A few examples of this are NASA’s SUSAN distributed electrofan concept and NASA University Leadership Initiatives such as CHEETA and IZEA that champion turbo-electric concepts. These concepts utilize combination of advanced technologies such as, fuel cells, power dense electronics and power dense electric machines and superconducting technologies. How much or which of these concepts will be adopted by industry is unclear, however another step function in electrifying aircraft propulsion is now on the horizon.

Electric Aircraft Propulsion↗

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center In-Space Cryogenic Propulsion Capabilities and Applications to Human Exploration

The current focus on lunar exploration and future human missions to Mars is driving in-space propulsion system requirements toward higher performance cryogenic systems with long-duration storage and operational capabilities. Not only do these systems offer higher performance than storable propellant options, but they also enable the potential for in-situ propellant production. Future Mars transit systems are envisioned to utilize either high-thrust nuclear thermal propulsion (with liquid hydrogen propellant), or hybrid systems with both cryogenic chemical systems (likely LOX/CH4) for high acceleration maneuvers and nuclear electric systems for long duration high Isp maneuvers. Exploration architectures based on either of these options require the use of high-performance cryogenic propellants with long-duration storage capabilities for both in-space transportation as well as planetary descent and ascent functions. Current efforts focusing on lunar exploration also rely on cryogenic propellants (either LOX/LCH4 or LOX/LH2) for lunar transit and descent/ascent transportation functions. In-space cryogenic propulsion systems pose numerous technology challenges with respect to long-duration propellant storage and usage, including advanced insulation, tank stratification and pressure management, cryogenic refrigeration to reduce propellant loss through boil off, low leakage cryogenic valves, low temperature liquid acquisition, and cryogenic propellant transfer. NASA has invested in technology development efforts, demonstrating individual technologies and systems-level operations. NASA Marshal Space Flight Center has also invested in multiple test facilities and modular test rigs that allow ground demonstration of numerous integrated technologies and systems concepts of operations. Additional investments have been made to mature analytical capabilities and design tools. These capabilities, both test/demonstration & engineering design/analysis, are available to support internal efforts and industrial partners in the development of exploration and science mission systems. With this increased interest, it is critical to understand the current state of in-space cryogenic propulsion technology, determine risks to its successful application to human exploration, and prepare the engineering, test, and evaluation capabilities to support the ambitious plans for future systems. This paper provides a survey of recent developments in in-space cryogenic propulsion and cryogenic propellant management technologies, as well as facilities and engineering/analytical capabilities ready to support current and future exploration efforts.

Cryogenic propulsion, cryogenic fluid management, ↗

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center In-Space Cryogenic Propulsion Capabilities and Applications to Human Exploration

The current focus on lunar exploration and future human missions to Mars is driving in-space propulsion system requirements toward higher performance cryogenic systems with long-duration storage and operational capabilities. Not only do these systems offer higher performance than storable propellant options, but they also enable the potential for in-situ propellant production. Future Mars transit systems are envisioned to utilize either high-thrust nuclear thermal propulsion (with liquid hydrogen propellant), or hybrid systems with both cryogenic chemical systems (likely LOX/CH 4 ) for high acceleration manoeuvres and nuclear electric systems for long duration high Isp manoeuvres. Exploration architectures based on either of these options require the use of high-performance cryogenic propellants with long-duration storage capabilities for both in-space transportation as well as planetary descent and ascent functions. Current efforts focusing on lunar exploration also rely on cryogenic propellants (either LOX/LCH 4 or LOX/LH 2 ) for lunar transit and descent/ascent transportation functions. In-space cryogenic propulsion systems pose numerous technology challenges with respect to long-duration propellant storage and usage, including advanced insulation, tank stratification and pressure management, cryogenic refrigeration to reduce propellant loss through boil off, low leakage cryogenic valves, low temperature liquid acquisition, and cryogenic propellant transfer. NASA has invested in technology development efforts, demonstrating individual technologies and systems-level operations. NASA Marshal Space Flight Center has also invested in multiple test facilities and modular test rigs that allow ground demonstration of numerous integrated technologies and systems concepts of operations. Additional investments have been made to mature analytical capabilities and design tools. These capabilities (both test/demonstration & engineering design/analysis) are available to support both internal efforts and industrial partners in the development of exploration and science mission systems. With this increased interest, it is critical to understand the current state of in-space cryogenic propulsion technology, determine risks to its successful application to human exploration, and prepare the engineering, test, and evaluation capabilities to support the ambitious plans for future systems. This paper provides a survey of recent developments in in-space cryogenic propulsion and cryogenic propellant management technologies, as well as facilities and engineering/analytical capabilities ready to support current and future exploration efforts.

Cryogenic propulsion↗

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center In-Space Cryogenic Propulsion Capabilities and Applications to Human Exploration

The current focus on lunar exploration and future human missions to Mars is driving in-space propulsion system requirements toward higher performance cryogenic systems with long-duration storage and operational capabilities. Not only do these systems offer higher performance than storable propellant options, but they also enable the potential for in-situ propellant production. Future Mars transit systems are envisioned to utilize either high-thrust nuclear thermal propulsion (with liquid hydrogen propellant), or hybrid systems with both cryogenic chemical systems (likely LOX/CH4) for high acceleration maneuvers and nuclear electric systems for long duration high Isp maneuvers. Exploration architectures based on either of these options require the use of high-performance cryogenic propellants with long-duration storage capabilities for both in-space transportation as well as planetary descent and ascent functions. Current efforts focusing on lunar exploration also rely on cryogenic propellants (either LOX/LCH4 or LOX/LH2) for lunar transit and descent/ascent transportation functions. In-space cryogenic propulsion systems pose numerous technology challenges with respect to long-duration propellant storage and usage, including advanced insulation, tank stratification and pressure management, cryogenic refrigeration to reduce propellant loss through boil off, low leakage cryogenic valves, low temperature liquid acquisition, and cryogenic propellant transfer. NASA has invested in technology development efforts, demonstrating individual technologies and systems-level operations. NASA Marshal Space Flight Center has also invested in multiple test facilities and modular test rigs that allow ground demonstration of numerous integrated technologies and systems concepts of operations. Additional investments have been made to mature analytical capabilities and design tools. These capabilities, both test/demonstration & engineering design/analysis, are available to support internal efforts and industrial partners in the development of exploration and science mission systems. With this increased interest, it is critical to understand the current state of in-space cryogenic propulsion technology, determine risks to its successful application to human exploration, and prepare the engineering, test, and evaluation capabilities to support the ambitious plans for future systems. This paper provides a survey of recent developments in in-space cryogenic propulsion and cryogenic propellant management technologies, as well as facilities and engineering/analytical capabilities ready to support current and future exploration efforts.

Cryogenic propulsion, cryogenic fluid management, ↗

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center In-Space Cryogenic Propulsion Capabilities and Applications to Human Exploration

The current focus on lunar exploration and future human missions to Mars is driving in-space propulsion system requirements toward higher performance cryogenic systems with long-duration storage and operational capabilities. Not only do these systems offer higher performance than storable propellant options, but they also enable the potential for in-situ propellant production. Future Mars transit systems are envisioned to utilize either high-thrust nuclear thermal propulsion (with liquid hydrogen propellant), or hybrid systems with both cryogenic chemical systems (likely LOX/CH 4 ) for high acceleration manoeuvres and nuclear electric systems for long duration high Isp manoeuvres. Exploration architectures based on either of these options require the use of high-performance cryogenic propellants with long-duration storage capabilities for both in-space transportation as well as planetary descent and ascent functions. Current efforts focusing on lunar exploration also rely on cryogenic propellants (either LOX/LCH 4 or LOX/LH 2 ) for lunar transit and descent/ascent transportation functions. In-space cryogenic propulsion systems pose numerous technology challenges with respect to long-duration propellant storage and usage, including advanced insulation, tank stratification and pressure management, cryogenic refrigeration to reduce propellant loss through boil off, low leakage cryogenic valves, low temperature liquid acquisition, and cryogenic propellant transfer. NASA has invested in technology development efforts, demonstrating individual technologies and systems-level operations. NASA Marshal Space Flight Center has also invested in multiple test facilities and modular test rigs that allow ground demonstration of numerous integrated technologies and systems concepts of operations. Additional investments have been made to mature analytical capabilities and design tools. These capabilities (both test/demonstration & engineering design/analysis) are available to support both internal efforts and industrial partners in the development of exploration and science mission systems. With this increased interest, it is critical to understand the current state of in-space cryogenic propulsion technology, determine risks to its successful application to human exploration, and prepare the engineering, test, and evaluation capabilities to support the ambitious plans for future systems. This paper provides a survey of recent developments in in-space cryogenic propulsion and cryogenic propellant management technologies, as well as facilities and engineering/analytical capabilities ready to support current and future exploration efforts.

Cryogenic propulsion↗

Real Options Analysis for Valuation of Climate Adaptation Pathways With Application to Transit Infrastructure

Climate change and sea level rise (SLR) are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of coastal flood events, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructure. While regional climate adaptation investments can provide substantive flood protection, existing plans often neglect uncertainty in future climate conditions and adaptation performance, consequently neglecting the option value of flexibly implementing proposed projects. Addressing this gap, we develop and employ a generalizable real options analysis (ROA) valuation framework that considers how uncertainty in adaptation project costs, SLR, flood severity, and flood losses inform the full range of adaptation performance outcomes. We further propose and apply a novel, computationally efficient flood loss sampling algorithm to estimate the consequences of randomly arriving coastal flood events. We apply this ROA framework to assess the option value of flexibly timing adaptation investments over time, investigating an adaptation pathway proposed by the City of Boston from the perspective of the regional transit system manager. Our results suggest that flexible implementation can provide significant option value in the near-to mid-term(>30 years), with highest option values under low-probability, high consequence scenarios. Our results also suggest adaptation pathway performance in the latter half of the 21stcenturyis most sensitive to uncertainty in sea level rise, flood loss estimates, and flood frequency, underscoring the importance of uncertainty quantification in the long-term valuation of adaptation investments.

Michael V. Martello↗

NASA’s Electric Propulsion Development Activities for Space Nuclear Propulsion Applications

Given increased worldwide support for advanced nuclear technology for terrestrial applications, there is a renewed interest in the possibility of nuclear-reactor-powered spacecraft. NASA continues investing in the technology areas necessary to support NASA’s future scientific and exploration goals. One of those technologies areas is electric propulsion, a highly efficient means for in-space propulsion that increases fuel economy by ionizing and accelerating an onboard propellant using spacecraft electrical power. The current NASA portfolio of electric propulsion investments in support of space nuclear applications focuses on a range of future applications with total system power levels of 50 kilowatts to multimegawatt. These investments support a fast-paced incremental rate for technology development advancement to support these applications. Systems at the 50-kilowatt power level can be accomplished today with existing technology and systems at the multimegawatt level will require further technology developments over the coming decade. Propulsion systems based an array of multiple Hall thrusters have been identified the most likely technology option for the near-term applications and systems utilizing lithium-fueled magneto-plasma-dynamic thrusters have been identified as the most promising alternative technology option for the far-term applications at very high-power levels.

Electric Propulsion↗

NASA’s Electric Propulsion Development Activities for Space Nuclear Propulsion Applications

Given increased worldwide support for advanced nuclear technology for terrestrial applications, there is a renewed interest in the possibility of nuclear-reactor-powered spacecraft. NASA continues investing in the technology areas necessary to support NASA’s future scientific and exploration goals. One of those technologies areas is electric propulsion, a highly efficient means for in-space propulsion that increases fuel economy by ionizing and accelerating an onboard propellant using spacecraft electrical power. The current NASA portfolio of electric propulsion investments in support of space nuclear applications focuses on a range of future applications with total system power levels of 50 kilowatts to multimegawatt. These investments support a fast-paced incremental rate for technology development advancement to support these applications. Systems at the 50-kilowatt power level can be accomplished today with existing technology and systems at the multimegawatt level will require further technology developments over the coming decade. Propulsion systems based an array of multiple Hall thrusters have been identified the most likely technology option for the near-term applications and systems utilizing lithium-fueled magneto-plasma-dynamic thrusters have been identified as the most promising alternative technology option for the far-term applications at very high-power levels.

Electric propulsion↗

Solar System Exploration Technology Requirements and Planning Process

The NASA Office of Space Science, in alliance with the Office of Advanced Concepts and Technology, has developed an Integrated Technology Strategy to guide its investment in technology for space science missions. This strategy establishes goals and strategic objectives that ensure that NASA and the nation derive the greatest possible scientific and economic benefits from investments in space science missions and technologies. Within the Office of Space Science, the Solar System Exploration Division in collaboration with the Office of Space Access and Technology, is developing a Technology Plan to implement these goals and to identify specific goals and to identify specific technology needs for solar system missions. This paper describes the philosophy, processes, and preliminary results of the systematic process being established for the identification and prioritization of solar system exploration technology needs.

space↗

Integrated operations/payloads/fleet analysis. Volume 3: System costs. Appendix A: Program direct costs

Individualized program direct costs for each satellite program are presented. This breakdown provides the activity level dependent costs for each satellite program. The activity level dependent costs, or, more simply, program direct costs, are comprised of the total payload costs (as these costs are strictly program dependent) and the direct launch vehicle costs. Only those incremental launch vehicle costs associated directly with the satellite program are considered. For expendable launch vehicles the direct costs include the vehicle investment hardware costs and the launch operations costs. For the reusable STS vehicles the direct costs include only the launch operations, recovery operations, command and control, vehicle maintenance, and propellant support. The costs associated with amortization of reusable vehicle investment, RDT&E range support, etc., are not included.

Source record↗