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Results for “Likelihood Functions”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1972

Social impact evaluation : Some implications of the specific decisional context approach for anticipatory project assessment with special reference to available alternatives and to techniques of evaluating the social impacts of the anticipated effects of such alternatives

The implications are explored of the specific decision context approach to anticipatory project assessment. More specifically, it is hypothesized that with respect to any given effect of a proposed project or action (mobility, job opportunities, air pollution, population distribution, etc.) such effect will likely differ in probability and/or magnitude from one decisional context to another; that the social desirability or undesirability of a given effect is a function (will differ with) each specific decisional context; that therefore the social impact of such effect will in all likelihood differ with each specific decisional context; and that the social significance of even the dame social impact of a given effect will vary from one decisional context to another when such social impact interacts with (competes with or reinforces) the social impacts of other effects. It also follows from this analysis that the respective roles of scientific method (demonstrable data) and adversarial system will not only differ with each specific decisional context but with each alternative course of action available to the decisional entity in each specific context.

Mayo, L. H.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Maximum likelihood identification of aircraft parameters with unsteady aerodynamic modelling

A simplified aerodynamic force model based on the physical principle of Prandtl's lifting line theory and trailing vortex concept has been developed to account for unsteady aerodynamic effects in aircraft dynamics. Longitudinal equations of motion have been modified to include these effects. The presence of convolution integrals in the modified equations of motion led to a frequency domain analysis utilizing Fourier transforms. This reduces the integro-differential equations to relatively simple algebraic equations, thereby reducing computation time significantly. A parameter extraction program based on the maximum likelihood estimation technique is developed in the frequency domain. The extraction algorithm contains a new scheme for obtaining sensitivity functions by using numerical differentiation. The paper concludes with examples using computer generated and real flight data

Keskar, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Maximum likelihood estimation of label imperfections and its use in the identification of mislabeled patterns

The problem of estimating label imperfections and the use of the estimation in identifying mislabeled patterns is presented. Expressions for the maximum likelihood estimates of classification errors and a priori probabilities are derived from the classification of a set of labeled patterns. Expressions also are given for the asymptotic variances of probability of correct classification and proportions. Simple models are developed for imperfections in the labels and for classification errors and are used in the formulation of a maximum likelihood estimation scheme. Schemes are presented for the identification of mislabeled patterns in terms of threshold on the discriminant functions for both two-class and multiclass cases. Expressions are derived for the probability that the imperfect label identification scheme will result in a wrong decision and are used in computing thresholds. The results of practical applications of these techniques in the processing of remotely sensed multispectral data are presented.

Chittineni, C. B.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Modulation/demodulation techniques for satellite communications. Part 2: Advanced techniques. The linear channel

A theory is presented for deducing and predicting the performance of transmitter/receivers for bandwidth efficient modulations suitable for use on the linear satellite channel. The underlying principle used is the development of receiver structures based on the maximum-likelihood decision rule. The application of the performance prediction tools, e.g., channel cutoff rate and bit error probability transfer function bounds to these modulation/demodulation techniques.

Omura, J. K.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Distributed parameter estimation for NASA Mini-Mast truss through displacement measurements

Most methods of system identification of large flexible structures by far are based on the lumped parameter approach. Because of the considerable computational burden due to the large number of unknown parameters, distributed parameter approach, which greatly decreases the number of unknowns, has being investigated. In this paper a distributed parameter model for the estimation of modal characteristics of NASA Mini-Mast truss has been formulated. Both Bernoulli-Euler beam and Timoshenko beam equations are used to characterize the lateral bending vibrations of the truss. The measurement of the lateral displacement at the tip of the truss is provided to the maximum likelihood estimator. Closed-form solutions of the partial differential equations and closed-form expressions of the sensitivity functions are derived so that the estimation algorithm is highly efficient. The resulting estimates from test data by using Timoshenko beam model are found to be comparable to those derived from finite element analysis.

Huang, Jen-Kuang↗
NASA NTRS1996

X-29A Lateral-Directional Stability and Control Derivatives Extracted From High-Angle-of-Attack Flight Data

The lateral-directional stability and control derivatives of the X-29A number 2 are extracted from flight data over an angle-of-attack range of 4 degrees to 53 degrees using a parameter identification algorithm. The algorithm uses the linearized aircraft equations of motion and a maximum likelihood estimator in the presence of state and measurement noise. State noise is used to model the uncommanded forcing function caused by unsteady aerodynamics over the aircraft at angles of attack above 15 degrees. The results supported the flight-envelope-expansion phase of the X-29A number 2 by helping to update the aerodynamic mathematical model, to improve the real-time simulator, and to revise flight control system laws. Effects of the aircraft high gain flight control system on maneuver quality and the estimated derivatives are also discussed. The derivatives are plotted as functions of angle of attack and compared with the predicted aerodynamic database. Agreement between predicted and flight values is quite good for some derivatives such as the lateral force due to sideslip, the lateral force due to rudder deflection, and the rolling moment due to roll rate. The results also show significant differences in several important derivatives such as the rolling moment due to sideslip, the yawing moment due to sideslip, the yawing moment due to aileron deflection, and the yawing moment due to rudder deflection.

Iliff, Kenneth W.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Extraction of Lateral-Directional Stability and Control Derivatives for the Basic F-18 Aircraft at High Angles of Attack

The results of parameter identification to determine the lateral-directional stability and control derivatives of an F-18 research aircraft in its basic hardware and software configuration are presented. The derivatives are estimated from dynamic flight data using a specialized identification program developed at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center. The formulation uses the linearized aircraft equations of motions in their continuous/discrete form and a maximum likelihood estimator that accounts for both state and measurement noise. State noise is used to model the uncommanded forcing function caused by unsteady aerodynamics, such as separated and vortical flows, over the aircraft. The derivatives are plotted as functions of angle of attack between 3 deg and 47 deg and compared with wind-tunnel predictions. The quality of the derivative estimates obtained by parameter identification is somewhat degraded because the maneuvers were flown with the aircraft's control augmentation system engaged, which introduced relatively high correlations between the control variables and response variables as a result of control motions from the feedback control system.

Iliff, Kenneth W.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Achievable Precision for Optical Ranging Systems

Achievable RMS errors in estimating the phase, frequency, and intensity of a direct-detected intensity-modulated optical pulse train are presented. For each parameter, the Cramer-Rao-Bound (CRB) is derived and the performance of the Maximum Likelihood estimator is illustrated. Approximations to the CRBs are provided, enabling an intuitive understanding of estimator behavior as a function of the signaling parameters. The results are compared to achievable RMS errors in estimating the same parameters from a sinusoidal waveform in additive white Gaussian noise. This establishes a framework for a performance comparison of radio frequency (RF) and optical science. Comparisons are made using parameters for state-of-the-art deep-space RF and optical links. Degradations to the achievable errors due to clock phase noise and detector jitter are illustrated.

estimation theory↗
NASA NTRS1986

Process for detecting the likelihood of ice formation, ice warning system for carrying out the process, and utilization thereof

An ice warning system comprising a diaphragm set into vibration at one of its frequencies of resonance by a piezoelectric cell. The diaphragm is coupled thermally to a metallic plate alternately cooled and heated respectively below and above the ambient temperature by Peltier elements connected to a reversible DC current generator. A microprocessor measures any variation of the resonance frequency caused by a deposit of ice on the diaphragm during the cooling or heating periods and delivers an alarm signal if this variation of frequency reaches and/ or exceeds a predetermined value. The microprocessor controls the period, intensity and direction of the current delivered by the DC current generator as a function of the ambient temperature and the temperature of the diaphragm. The ice warning system is preferably utilized in the aeronautical field for indicating the likelihood of natural ice formation on the engines and the wings of aircraft.

Martin Lustenberger↗
DOE OSTI2026

Combined dark matter search towards dwarf spheroidal galaxies with Fermi -LAT, HAWC, H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS

Dwarf spheroidal galaxies (dSphs) are excellent targets for indirect dark matter (DM) searches using gamma-ray telescopes because they are thought to have high DM content and a low astrophysical background. The sensitivity of these searches is improved by combining the observations of dSphs made by different gamma-ray telescopes. We present the results of a combined search by the most sensitive currently operating gamma-ray telescopes, namely: the satellite-borne Fermi -LAT telescope; the ground-based imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescope arrays H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS; and the HAWC water Cherenkov detector. Individual datasets were analyzed using a common statistical approach. Results were subsequently combined via a global joint likelihood analysis. We obtain constraints on the velocity-weighted cross section 〈σv〉 for DM self-annihilation as a function of the DM particle mass. This five-instrument combination allows the derivation of up to 2-3 times more constraining upper limits on 〈σv〉 than the individual results over a wide mass range spanning from 5 GeV to 100 TeV. Depending on the DM content modeling, the 95% confidence level observed limits reach 1.5×10 -24 cm 3 s -1 and 3.2×10 -25 cm 3 s -1 , respectively, in the τ + τ - annihilation channel for a DM mass of 2 TeV.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1977

Estimated probability density functions for the times between flashes in the storms of 12 September 1975, 26 August 1975, and 13 July 1976

A report is given to supplement the progress report of June 17, 1977. In that progress report gamma, lognormal, and Rayleigh probability density functions were fitted to the times between lightning flashes in the storms of 9/12/75, 8/26/75, and 7/13/76 by the maximum likelihood method. The goodness of fit is checked by the Kolmogoroff-Smirnoff test. Plots of the estimated densities along with normalized histograms are included to provide a visual check on the goodness of fit. The lognormal densities are the most peaked and have the highest tails. This results in the best fit to the normalized histogram in most cases. The Rayleigh densities have too broad and rounded peaks to give good fits. In addition, they have the lowest tails. The gamma densities fall inbetween and give the best fit in a few cases.

Tretter, S. A.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Failure Engineering Study and Accelerated Stress Test Results for the Mars Global Surveyor Spacecraft's Power Shunt Assemblies

Due to a post launch failure of a part a new plan for the Mars Global Surveyor was developed. This new plan involved the addition of many deep thermal cycles to the Power Shunt Assemblies (PSA's). This new plan exceeds the previous acceptance cold level, and fatigue life on packaging design. This presentation reviews the experiments that were used to test the capabilities of the PSA to function in the new situation. It also reviews the analyses preformed to verify the most likely failure mechanism, and the likelihood that these failures would impact the new mission requirements.

Gibbel, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2003

Software for Better Documentation of Other Software

The Literate Programming Extraction Engine is a Practical Extraction and Reporting Language- (PERL-)based computer program that facilitates and simplifies the implementation of a concept of self-documented literate programming in a fashion tailored to the typical needs of scientists. The advantage for the programmer is that documentation and source code are written side-by-side in the same file, reducing the likelihood that the documentation will be inconsistent with the code and improving the verification that the code performs its intended functions. The advantage for the user is the knowledge that the documentation matches the software because they come from the same file. This program unifies the documentation process for a variety of programming languages, including C, C++, and several versions of FORTRAN. This program can process the documentation in any markup language, and incorporates the LaTeX typesetting software. The program includes sample Makefile scripts for automating both the code-compilation (when appropriate) and documentation-generation processes into a single command-line statement. Also included are macro instructions for the Emacs display-editor software, making it easy for a programmer to toggle between editing in a code or a documentation mode.

Pinedo, John↗
NASA NTRS2022

Constraining Warm Dark Matter and Population III Stars with the Global 21 cm Signal

Upcoming ground- and space-based experiments may have sufficient accuracy to place significant constraints upon high-redshift star formation, Reionization, and dark matter (DM) using the global 21 cm signal of the intergalactic medium. In the early universe, when the relative abundance of low-mass DM halos was important, measuring the global signal would place constraints on the damping of structure formation caused by DM having a higher relic velocity (warm dark matter, or WDM) than in cold dark matter. Such damping, however, can be mimicked by altering the star formation efficiency (SFE) and can be difficult to detect because of the presence of Population III stars with unknown properties. We study these various cases and their degeneracies with the WDM mass parameter mX using a Fisher matrix analysis. We study the mX = 7 keV case and a star formation model that parameterizes the SFE as a strong function of halo mass and include several variations of this model along with three different input noise levels for the likelihood; we also use a minimum halo virial temperature for collapse near the molecular cooling threshold. We find that when the likelihood includes only Population II stars, mX is constrained to an uncertainty of ∼0.4 keV for all models and noise levels at the 68% confidence level. When the likelihood includes weak Population III stars, mX ∼ 0.3 keV, and if Population III star formation is relatively efficient, mX ∼ 0.1 keV uncertainty, with tight Population III star formation parameter constraints. Our results show that the global 21 cm signal is a promising test-bed for WDM models, even in the presence of strong degeneracies with astrophysical parameters.

Cosmology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizers for stabilizing likelihood-free inference

A growing number of applications in particle physics and beyond use neural networks as unbinned likelihood ratio estimators applied to real or simulated data. Precision requirements on the inference tasks demand a high-level of stability from these networks, which are affected by the stochastic nature of training. We show how physics concepts can be used to stabilize network training through a physics-inspired optimizer. In particular, the energy conserving descent (ECD) optimization framework uses classical Hamiltonian dynamics on the space of network parameters to reduce the dependence on the initial conditions while also stabilizing the result near the minimum of the loss function. We develop a version of this optimizer known as , which has few free hyperparameters with limited ranges guided by physical reasoning. We apply to representative likelihood-ratio estimation tasks in particle physics and find on average that it out-performs the widely used Adam optimizer. We expect that ECD will be a useful tool for wide array of data-limited problems, where it is computationally expensive to exhaustively optimize hyperparameters and mitigate fluctuations with ensembling.

Monte Carlo methods↗
NASA NTRS1987

A new method of boundary parameter estimation for a two-dimensional diffusion system under noisy observations

The purpose of this paper is to establish a method for identifying unknown parameters involved in the boundary state of a class of diffusion systems under noisy observations. A mathematical model of the system dynamics is given by a two-dimensional diffusion equation. Noisy observations are made by sensors allocated on the system boundary. Starting with the mathematical model mentioned above, an online parameter estimation algorithm is proposed within the framework of the maximum likelihood estimation. Existence of the optimal solution and related necessary conditions are discussed. By solving a local variation of the cost functional with respect to the perturbation of parameters, the estimation mechanism is proposed in a form of recursive computations. Finally, the feasibility of the estimator proposed here is demonstrated through results of digital simulation experiments.

Sunahara, Y.↗
NASA NTRS1988

A method of boundary parameter estimation for a two-dimensional diffusion system under noisy observations

The purpose of this paper is to establish a method for identifying unknown parameters involved in the boundary state of a class of diffusion systems under noisy observations. A mathematical model of the system dynamics is given by a two-dimensional diffusion equation. Noisy observations are made by sensors allocated on the system boundary. Starting with the mathematical model mentioned above, an online parameter estimation algorithm is proposed within the framework of the maximum likelihood estimation. Existence of the optimal solution and related necessary conditions are discussed. By solving a local variation of the cost functional with respect to the perturbation of parameters, the estimation mechanism is proposed in a form of recursive computations. Finally, the feasibility of the estimator proposed here is demonstrated through results of digital simulation experiments.

Sunahara, Y.↗