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At least 235 records · Page 13

PreMevE: New Predictive Model for Megaelectron-volt Electrons inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt

Here, this work designs a new model called PreMevE to predict storm–time distributions of relativistic electrons within Earth's outer radiation belt. This model takes advantage of the cross–energy, –L–shell, and –pitch–angle coherence associated with wave–electron resonant interactions, ingests observations from belt boundaries—mainly by NOAA POES in low–Earth–orbits (LEOs), and provides high–fidelity nowcast (multiple–hour prediction) and forecast (> ~1 day) of MeV electron fluxes over L–shells between 2.8–7 through linear prediction filters. PreMevE can not only reliably anticipate incoming enhancements of MeV electrons during storms with at least 1–day forewarning time, but also accurately specify the evolving event–specific electron spatial distributions afterwards. The performance of PreMevE is assessed against long–term in situ data from one Van Allen Probe and a LANL geosynchronous satellite. Furthermore, this new model enhances our preparedness for severe MeV electron events in the future, and further adds new science utility to existing and next–generation LEO space infrastructure.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Challenges and Opportunities in Magnetospheric Space Weather Prediction

Abstract Space Weather is the study of the dynamics of the coupled Solar‐Terrestrial environment, as these dynamics impact technological systems and human activity. This paper reviews a selection of the advances, challenges, and new opportunities for magnetospheric space weather, and while the focus is on specific phenomena, many other aspects of space weather will have similar challenges and needs. As a scientific field with direct applications, the field of space weather is partly driven by imperatives from both policy and operations. We provide an introduction to some of the context in which the field exists and discuss how this might shape future developments and norms within the space weather enterprise. We briefly examine benchmarking, as a policy and operationally driven activity, as it provides immediate societal relevance and an opportunity to stretch scientific understanding. As numerical space weather prediction now becomes routine, and exascale computing is in the near future, we identify challenges relating to computational expense and big data, capturing and accounting for uncertainties, and specification of boundary conditions. Here, as with the observations supporting numerical space weather prediction, the key challenge lies in extending the lead time of predictions. We also discuss the role of data, particularly in regard to model validation and empirical modeling. Due to the growing societal impact of space weather, we also examine the relationships between space weather and its terrestrial counterpart and look at the importance of continuous evaluation, monitoring progress in predictive capability, and communication with researchers, forecasters, and end users.

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Global Simulation of Electron Cyclotron Harmonic Wave Instability in a Storm-Time Magnetosphere

Electron cyclotron harmonic (ECH) waves are electrostatic emissions between the ECHs and play a dominant role for precipitating energetic electrons in the magnetotail. Statistically, the ECH wave intensity is stronger at nightside and dawnside than at dayside and duskside. In this study, we, for the first time, simulate the global ECH wave evolution during a geomagnetic storm event using Ring current Atmosphere interactions Model with Self-Consistent Magnetic field (RAM-SCB) combined with a linear growth rate solver.We find that the simulation results are generally consistent with the statistical and real-time observations. The ECH wave instability is much stronger at nightside and dawnside, compared to the instability at dayside and duskside. Before a geomagnetic storm (quiet time), the unstable regions of the ECH waves lie beyond $5R_E$ with a weak instability level. During the main phase of a geomagnetic storm, the unstable regions can extend to a lower altitude $(3R_E)$ with a strong instability level. Finally, during the recovery phase, the unstable regions return to $5$ ~ $6R_E$. We also find that the inner boundary of unstable ECH wave regions is coincident with the plasmapause location during the whole geomagnetic storm event.

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Oxygen Ion Dynamics in the Earth's Ring Current: Van Allen Probes Observations

Oxygen (O + ) enhancements in the inner magnetosphere are often observed during geomagnetically active times, such as geomagnetic storms. In this study, we quantitatively examine the difference in ring current dynamics with and without a substantial O + ion population based on almost 6 years of Van Allen Probes observations. Here, our results have not only confirmed previous finding of the role of O + ions to the ring current but also found that abundant O + ions are always present during large storms when sym-H < -60 nT without exception, while having the pressure ratio ($\mathscr{R}$) between O + and proton (H + ) larger than 0.8 and occasionally even larger than 1 when L < 3. Simultaneously, the pressure anisotropy decreases with decreasing sym-H and increasing L shell. The pressure anisotropy decrease during the storm main phase is likely related to the pitch angle isotropization processes. In addition, we find that $\mathscr{R}$ increases during the storm main phase and then decreases during the storm recovery phase, suggesting faster buildup and decay of O + pressure compared to H + ions, which are probably associated with some species dependent source and/or energization as well as loss processes in the inner magnetosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Cold Ion Population at Geosynchronous Orbit and Transport to the Dayside Magnetopause: September 2015 to February 2016

During intervals of enhanced magnetospheric convection, a high-density plume of cold ions is eroded from the plasmasphere and can flow toward the dayside magnetopause where it has the potential to reduce the rate of magnetic reconnection. In any interval of long-duration enhanced convection, tons of ions may follow such a trajectory. The study here concerns cold ion observations from geosynchronous orbit (GEO) during both calm and active periods. Probability distributions of the cold ion density and cold ion flow speed are determined during the 6-month period from September 2015 to February 2016, inclusive. During low geomagnetic activity, the cold, dense ions are in corotation with the Earth, and flow speeds seldom exceed 10 km/s. During elevated geomagnetic activity, the cold ions between 12 and 18 magnetic local time are observed to flow toward the dayside magnetosphere with a speed of >10 km/s approximately 50% of the time. The Shue et al. (1998, https://doi.org/10.1029/98JA01103) model of the magnetopause location is used to derive the distribution of approximate minimum times for the cold ions to be transported from GEO to the dayside magnetopause. On average, during enhanced convection periods (Kp > 3) ions will take a mean time of ~4.5 hr to travel from GEO to the dayside magnetopause.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Characteristics of Electron Precipitation During 40 Energetic Electron Injections Inferred via Subionospheric VLF Signal Propagation

Energetic electron injection events are associated with energetic electron precipitation (EEP) through possible resonant wave-particle interactions. Previous studies confirm the impacts of injection-driven precipitation on observed amplitude/phase of subionospheric VLF (very low frequency) signals transmitted from distant artificial transmitters. Currently, there are substantial uncertainties on precipitation characteristics and flux during injection events. In this work we study 40 injection events selected by Van Allen Probes particle data to investigate the changes in amplitude and phase of VLF signals at ground receivers across Canada during particle injection events. We model the ionospheric effect of the EEP flux to find its impact on VLF propagation and characterize the injection events. Typically, we find a clear phase advance of ~40° in the received VLF signal at Fort Smith (Canada, L = 8) transmitted from U.S. Navy communication transmitter NAA at Maine (USA). Comparing to other VLF transmitter-receiver paths in North America leads us to conclude that effects are only seen on paths with adequately large range >>200 km) through L > 7. Modeling the VLF phase change indicates that in the majority of events (>90%), less than 10% of the strong scattering limit inferred from particle flux measurements at the Van Allen Probes is required to obtain the observed VLF phase signature. The median precipitating flux during energetic particle injections is less than 4 × 10 6 el/cm 2 s sr (<10% of the strong scattering rate) for electrons above ~40 keV extracted from trapped particles energy spectrum. This implies that strong scattering is not typical for these 40 selected energetic electron injection events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Simultaneous Observations of Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) Waves and Pitch Angle Scattering During a Van Allen Probes Conjunction

On 22 December 2015, the two Van Allen Probes observed two sets of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave bursts during a close conjunction when both Probe A and Probe B were separated by 0.57 to 0.68 R E . Here, the EMIC waves occurred during an active period in the recovery phase of a coronal mass ejection-driven geomagnetic storm. Both spacecraft observed EMIC wave bursts that had similar spatial structure within a 1–2 min time delay. The EMIC waves occurred outside the plasmasphere, within ΔL ≈ 1–2 of the plasmapause and within a few degrees in magnetic latitude of the equatorial plane. The spatial structure of the EMIC wave bursts may have been related to the proton drift paths outside the plasmasphere and influenced by total magnetic field strength variations associated with solar wind pressure enhancements. The EMIC waves were observed in a narrow L shell region from L ≈ 4.55–5.32 between 10 and 11 magnetic local time (MLT) on the outbound halves of the spacecraft orbits and from L ≈ 4.82–5.51 between 13 and 14 MLT on the inbound halves of the spacecraft orbits. However, Pc1 pulsations were observed on the ground over a broad range of local times. The anisotropy of the proton pitch angle distributions was enhanced when the EMIC waves were observed. Although the overall radiation belt response during this storm was dominated by acceleration and transport processes, the EMIC waves produced local pitch angle scattering of 13–15 keV protons and 2.1–2.6 MeV electrons, consistent with calculations of the expected resonant energies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Global Prompt Proton Sensor Network: Monitoring Solar Energetic Protons Based on GPS Satellite Constellation

Energetic particle instruments on board Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites form a powerful global prompt proton sensor network (GPPSn) that provides an unprecedented opportunity to monitor and characterize solar energetic protons targeting the Earth. The medium-Earth orbits of the GPS constellation have the unique advantage of allowing solar energetic protons to be simultaneously measured from multiple points in both open- and closed-field line regions. Examining two example intervals of solar proton events, we showcase in this study how GPS proton data are prepared, calibrated, and utilized to reveal important features of solar protons, including their source, acceleration/scattering by interplanetary shocks, the relative position of Earth when impinged by these shocks, the shape of solar particle fronts, the access of solar protons inside the dynamic geomagnetic field, and temporally varying proton distributions in both energy and space. By comparing to Van Allen Probes data, GPS proton observations are further demonstrated not only to be useful for qualitatively monitoring the dynamics of solar protons but also for quantitative scientific research including determining cutoff L-shells. Finally, our results establish that this GPPSn can join forces with other existing solar proton monitors and contribute to observing, warning, understanding, and ultimately forecasting the incoming solar energetic proton events.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Analysis of Electric and Magnetic Lightning-Generated Wave Amplitudes Measured by the Van Allen Probes

Herein we provide a statistical analysis of both electric and magnetic field wave amplitudes of very low frequency lightning-generated waves (LGWs) based on the equivalent of 11.5 years of observations made by the Van Allen Probes encompassing ~24.6 × 10 6 survey mode measurements. We complement this analysis with data from the ground-based World Wide Lightning Location Network to explore differences between satellite and ground-based measurements. LGW mean amplitudes are found to be low compared with other whistler mode waves (1 ± 1.6 pT and 19 ± 59 μV/m). Extreme events (1/5,000) can reach 100 pT and contributes strongly to the mean power below $L$ = 2. We find excellent correlations between World Wide Lightning Location Network-based power and wave amplitudes in space at various longitudes. We reveal strong dayside ionospheric damping of the LGW electric field. LGW amplitudes drop for $L$ < 2, contrary to the Earth's intense equatorial lightning activity. We conclude that it is difficult for equatorial LGW to propagate and remain at $L$ < 2.

Electric wave power↗

Simultaneous Observations of Localized and Global Drift Resonance

In this study, we present Van Allen Probe observations showing that seed (hundreds of keV) and core ( ≳ 1 MeV) electrons can resonate with ultra-low-frequency (ULF) wave modes with distinctive m values simultaneously. An unusual electron energy spectrogram with double-banded resonant structure was recorded by energetic particle, composition, and thermal plasma (ECT)-magnetic electron ion spectrometer (MagEIS) and, meanwhile, boomerang stripes in pitch angle spectrogram appeared at the lower energy band. A localized drift resonance with m = 10 wave component was responsible for the resonant band peaked at ~200 keV while a global drift resonance with m = 3 component gave rise to the upper band resonance peaked at ~1 MeV. Time-Of-Flight on boomerang stripes suggested that the localized drift resonance with ~200 keV electrons was confined within the plasmaspheric plume. Electron flux modulations were reproduced by numerical simulations in good consistency with the observations, supporting the scenario that localized and global drift resonance could coexist in the outer belt electron dynamics simultaneously.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Observation of High-Energy Electrons Precipitated by NWC Transmitter From PROBA-V Low-Earth Orbit Satellite

The very low-frequency transmitter in the Northwest Cape of Australia (NWC) has previously been observed to pitch-angle scatter electrons with energies from 30–400 keV, creating enhanced fluxes measured by low-Earth orbiting (LEO) satellites. Here we use observations from the Energetic Particle Telescope on PROBA-V. We compare the measured flux, as a function of local magnetic field strength, when the NWC transmitter is “on” versus “off,” and find enhanced fluxes only when NWC is “on” and located on the nightside. The enhanced fluxes occur in the population gradually transitioning from “permanently trapped” to “quasi-trapped.” We show that electrons up to 800 keV, substantially higher energy than previously studied, are scattered by resonant interactions with NWC to produce enhanced fluxes. The enhanced fluxes appear at multiple L-shells for each energy channel, consistent with resonance conditions at distinct wave normal angles, that indicate ducted interactions at L < 1.55 and unducted interactions at L > 1.65.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Effects of Field Line Curvature (FLC) Scattering on Ring Current Dynamics and Isotropic Boundary

Abstract In the ring current dynamics, various loss mechanisms contribute to the ring current decay, including losses to the upper atmosphere through particle precipitation. This study implements the field line curvature (FLC) scattering mechanism in a kinetic ring current model and investigates its role in precipitating ions into the ionosphere during the 17 March 2013 storm. Simulation results indicate that (1) the FLC scattering process exerts on energetic ions on the nightside where the magnetospheric configuration is more stretching. It is more effective on heavy ions (e.g., O + ). These ion losses thereafter lead to a faster recovery of the ring current. (2) The FLC‐associated ion precipitation mainly occurs in the outer region (L > 5 for protons and L > 4.5 for oxygen ions) on the nightside. The O + precipitation takes places in a wider region than protons although its intensity is much lower. Comparisons with POES observations suggest that more proton precipitation is needed in the inner region. This is probably caused by the less stretched configuration in the simulation that prevents more precipitation. It may also imply that other loss process is required in the model such as wave‐particle interactions. (3) The storm time precipitating proton flux of tens of keV due to the FLC scattering sometimes becomes comparable to that of electrons on the nightside, although electrons usually dominate the ionospheric energy deposition from the midnight eastward toward the dayside. (4) The FLC scattering process seems to be capable of explaining the formation of isotropic boundary in the ionosphere during the investigated event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Investigation of Small-Scale Electron Density Irregularities Observed by the Arase and Van Allen Probes Satellites Inside and Outside the Plasmasphere

In situ electron density profiles obtained from Arase in the night magnetic local time (MLT) sector and from RBSP-B covering all MLTs are used to study the small-scale density irregularities present in the plasmasphere and near the plasmapause. Electron density perturbations with amplitudes >10% from background density and with time-scales less than 30-min are investigated here as the small-scale density irregularities. The statistical survey of the density irregularities is carried out using nearly 2 years of density data obtained from RBSP-B and 4 months of data from Arase satellites. The results show that density irregularities are present globally at all MLT sectors and L-shells both inside and outside the plasmapause, with a higher occurrence at L > 4. The occurrence of density irregularities is found to be higher during disturbed geomagnetic and interplanetary conditions. The case studies presented here revealed: (1) The plasmaspheric density irregularities observed during both quiet and disturbed conditions are found to coexist with the hot plasma sheet population. (2) During quiet periods, the plasma waves in the whistler-mode frequency range are found to be modulated by the small-scale density irregularities, with density depletions coinciding well with the decrease in whistler intensity. Our observations suggest that different source mechanisms are responsible for the generation of density structures at different MLTs and geomagnetic conditions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Why Are There so Few Reports of High-Energy Electron Drift Resonances? Role of Radial Phase Space Density Gradients

Models of monochromatic Pc5 (2–7 mHz) ultralow frequency (ULF) wave interactions with high energy (greater than ~1 MeV) electrons predict drift resonant interactions that can cause rapid radial transport and acceleration. There are few reports of electron drift resonance at energies greater than ~1 MeV, in contrast to lower energies; moreover, all previous reports occur in the aftermath of interplanetary shocks. These two facts are difficult to reconcile with theory and numerical simulations predicting that greater than ~1 MeV drift resonances should occur more often and in a wider variety of driving conditions. In this study, we show that a combination of observational sampling biases and nominal radial phase space density gradients is one explanation for this discrepancy between theory and observations. In particular, we examine electron dynamics in two case studies with very similar satellite coverage, solar wind conditions, and Pc5 wave properties, yet with different radial phase space density profiles. Using global wave and particle observations, we show that the events have vastly different particle responses despite having similar wave properties. Placing these results in context with past studies, we further show here that nominal radial PSD gradients near geostationary orbit can mask the expected drift resonance particle response and explain (1) the small number of past greater than ~1 MeV drift resonance reports and (2) the restriction of these reports to interplanetary shock events. We argue that future observational studies characterizing radial transport via drift resonance should examine global particle dynamics, including observations of the radial phase space density profile.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Short-lived Three-Belt Structure for sub-MeV Electrons in the Van Allen Belts: Time Scale and Energy Dependence

In this study we focus on the radiation belt dynamics driven by the geomagnetic storms during September 2017. Besides the long-lasting three-belt structures of ultrarelativistic electrons (>2 MeV, existing for tens of days), which has been studied intensively during the Van Allen Probe era, it is found that magnetospheric electrons of hundreds of keVs can also have three-belt structures at similar L extent during storm time. Measurements of 500–800 keV electrons from MagEIS instrument onboard Van Allen Probes show double-peaked (L = 3.5 and 4.5, respectively) flux-versus-L-shell profile in the outer belt, which lasted for 2–3 days. During the time interval of such transient three-belt structure, the energy-versus-L spectrogram shows novel distributions differing from both “S-shaped” and “V-shaped” spectrograms reported previously. Such peculiar distribution also illustrates the energy-dependent occurrence of the three-belt profile. Furthermore, the gradual formation of “reversed energy spectrum” at L ~ 3.5 also indicates that hiss scattering inside the plasmapause contributed to the fast decay of sub-MeV remnant belt.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Observations of Density Cavities and Associated Warm Ion Flux Enhancements in the Inner Magnetosphere

We present a statistical study of density cavities observed in the inner magnetosphere by the Van Allen Probes during four one-month periods: February 2013, July 2013, January 2014, and June 2014. These periods were chosen to allow the survey of all magnetic local times. We find that density cavities are a recurrent feature of the density profiles of in situ measurements in the inner magnetosphere. We further investigate the correlation between the density cavities and the enhancement of fluxes of warm ions with energies of 10–100 eV. The results show that warm ion flux enhancements associated with the density cavities were observed more frequently for H + , then for He + and the least frequently for O + . The occurrences of the associated flux enhancements were increased when considering only the cavities inside the plasmasphere. Possible mechanisms responsible for the observed warm ion flux enhancements and the role of density cavities on these ion flux enhancements are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Multipoint Observations of Quasiperiodic Emission Intensification and Effects on Energetic Electron Precipitation

The two Van Allen Probes simultaneously recorded a coherently modulated quasiperiodic (QP) emission that persisted for 3 h. The magnetic field pulsation at the locations of the two satellites showed a substantial difference, and their frequencies were close to but did not exactly match the repetition frequency of QP emissions for most of the time, suggesting that those coherent QP emissions probably originated from a common source, which then propagated over a broad area in the magnetosphere. The QP emissions were amplified by local anisotropic electron distributions, and their large-scale amplitudes were modulated by the plasma density. A novel observation of this event is that chorus waves at frequencies above QP emissions exhibit a strong correlation with QP emissions. Those chorus waves intensified when the QP emissions reach their peak frequency. This indicates that embryonic QP emissions may be critical for its own intensification as well as chorus waves under certain circumstances. A Low-Earth-Orbit POES satellite observed enhanced energetic electron precipitation in conjunction with the Van Allen Probes, providing direct evidence that QP emissions precipitate energetic electrons into the atmosphere. Finally, this scenario is quantitatively confirmed by our quasilinear diffusion simulation results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗