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At least 235 records · Page 13

Model files for estimating snow dynamics and stable water isotopes across the East River, CO.

A coupled hydrologic and snowpack stable water isotope model is used to assesses controls on isotopic inputs across the East River, Colorado, a large, mountainous basin. The hydrologic model uses the semi-empirical, spatially distributed and publicly available U.S. Geological Survey numerical code Precipitation-Modelling Runoff System (PRMS). Water and energy are tracked daily through the atmosphere, canopy and subsurface at a 100-m grid resolution. The isotope mass balance model follows previous work by Ala-aho et al. (2017) to track stable isotopes entering the soil system as snowmelt or rain. Water stores and fluxes needed for the isotope model use hydrologic model output for each timestep and model modeled grid location. This data package provides all files related to the hydrologic model (executable, input and output files), the isotopic model calibration and the historic isotopic model (water years 2015-2020). The isotope model source code and executable are provided. The file "readme.txt" includes information on the file structure, steps to run the model, and description of included folders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A two-dimensional model for the transport of pollutants in an urban basin

The distribution of an inert chemical species, carbon monoxide (CO), emitted mainly from automobile exhaust is investigated. The transport model, in analogy with the shallow water theory in fluid dynamics, considers variation of all physical quantities in the horizontal direction below the temperature inversion layer. Pollutants are found to be carried primarily by the wind; turbulent diffusion in a normal day plays only a minor role. The concentration of CO predicted by the present model for the entire Los Angeles basin is compared with observed data at nine stations. Accuracy of four different numerical schemes, the effect of turbulent diffusivity, and the source strengths are examined.

Liu, C. Y.↗

A two-dimensional model for the transport of pollutants in an urban basin

The distribution of carbon monoxide emitted mainly from an automobile exhaust is investigated. Carbon monoxide is assumed to be chemically inert. The transport model, in analogy with the shallow-water theory in fluid dynamics, considers variation of all physical quantities in the horizontal direction below the temperature inversion layer. Pollutants are found to be carried primarily by the wind; turbulent diffusion in a normal day plays only a minor role. The concentration of CO predicted by the present model for the entire Los Angeles basin is compared with observed data at nine stations. Accuracy of four different numerical schemes, the effect of turbulent diffusivity, and the source strengths are examined.

Liu, C. Y.↗

Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison

Abstract. This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0–20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air–surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land–atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Loggers and Forest Fragmentation: Behavioral Models of Road Building in the Amazon Basin

Although a large literature now exists on the drivers of tropical deforestation, less is known about its spatial manifestation. This is a critical shortcoming in our knowledge base since the spatial pattern of land-cover change and forest fragmentation, in particular, strongly affect biodiversity. The purpose of this article is to consider emergent patterns of road networks, the initial proximate cause of fragmentation in tropical forest frontiers. Specifically, we address the road-building processes of loggers who are very active in the Amazon landscape. To this end, we develop an explanation of road expansions, using a positive approach combining a theoretical model of economic behavior with geographic information systems (GIs) software in order to mimic the spatial decisions of road builders. We simulate two types of road extensions commonly found in the Amazon basin in a region: showing the fishbone pattern of fragmentation. Although our simulation results are only partially successful, they call attention to the role of multiple agents in the landscape, the importance of legal and institutional constraints on economic behavior, and the power of GIs as a research tool.

Arima, Eugenio Y.↗

Assimilation of Satellite Altimeter Data With a Four Dimensional Model of the Japan Sea

A data assimilation is carried out to detect the variability of the Japan Sea circulation in the range from a few days to several years and from eddy to basin scale. The model applied in this study is the same 1/6 degree GFDL MOM1 as Kim and Yoon (1999) but is driven by ECMWF daily wind stress, heat and fresh water fluxes. The satellite altimeter data of TOPEX/POSEIDON, ERS-1 (phase C and G) and -2 are assimilated by an approximate Kalman filter (Fukumori and M.Rizzoli, 1995). The approximation is made by seeking an asymptotic steady error covariance matrix (Fukumori et al., 1993) and by introducing a coarser grid model for the innovation (data-model misfit). The coarse grid model is defined on 1/2 degree horizontal resolution and consists of the barotropic stream function, first baroclinic displacement and velocity amplitudes. The assimilated estimates explain about 6cm sea level variability of the data (approximately 12cm in the southern part), which is much larger than the previous reduced-gravity model and TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data assimilation (Hirose et al., 1999). The impacts of the T/P and ERS data on the filtered estimates are comparable. The result also shows high correlation to subsurface water temperatures measured by CTD. Many of the mesoscale eddies/disturbances travel east-northeastward with the advection speed of 1-3cm/s though most of them generated in the western region can not pass over the Oki Spur. The quasi-biennial variability found by Hirose and Ostrovskii (1999) did not show clear propagation pattern. The shallow Oki Spur may work as a "western boundary" to this signal. This is more plausible estimation than by the R-G model which has no bottom topography.

Hirose, Naoki↗

Geologic Reservoir Content Model from Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin

This dataset contains the known hydrocarbon reservoirs within the study area of the Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin (GPFA-AB) as part of Phase 1, Natural Reservoirs Quality Analysis. The final values for Reservoir Productivity Index (RPI) and uncertainty (in terms of coefficient of variation, CV) are included. RPI is in units of liters per MegaPascal-second (L/MPa-s), quantified using permeability, thickness of formation, and depth. A higher RPI is more optimal. Coefficient of Variation (CV) is the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean RPI for each reservoir. A lower CV is more optimal. Details on these metrics can be found in the Reservoirs_Methodology_Memo.pdf uploaded in the associated "Natural Reservoir Analysis" dataset linked below.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Coupling Mars' Dust and Water Cycles: Effects on Dust Lifting Vigor, Spatial Extent and Seasonality

The dust cycle is an important component of Mars' current climate system. Airborne dust affects the radiative balance of the atmosphere, thus greatly influencing the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere. Dust raising events on Mars occur at spatial scales ranging from meters to planet-wide. Although the occurrence and season of large regional and global dust storms are highly variable from one year to the next, there are many features of the dust cycle that occur year after year. Generally, a low-level dust haze is maintained during northern spring and summer, while elevated levels of atmospheric dust occur during northern autumn and winter. During years without global-scale dust storms, two peaks in total dust loading were observed by MGS/TES: one peak occurred before northern winter solstice at Ls 200-240, and one peak occurred after northern winter solstice at L(sub s) 305-340. These maxima in dust loading are thought to be associated with transient eddy activity in the northern hemisphere, which has been observed to maximize pre- and post-solstice. Interactive dust cycle studies with Mars General Circulation Models (MGCMs) have included the lifting, transport, and sedimentation of radiatively active dust. Although the predicted global dust loadings from these simulations capture some aspects of the observed dust cycle, there are marked differences between the simulated and observed dust cycles. Most notably, the maximum dust loading is robustly predicted by models to occur near northern winter solstice and is due to dust lifting associated with down slope flows on the flanks of the Hellas basin. Thus far, models have had difficulty simulating the observed pre- and post- solstice peaks in dust loading. Interactive dust cycle studies typically have not included the formation of water ice clouds or their radiative effects. Water ice clouds can influence the dust cycle by scavenging dust from atmosphere and by interacting with solar and infrared radiation, thereby modifying the thermal structure of the atmosphere and its circulation. Results presented in other papers at this workshop show that including the radiative effects of water ice clouds greatly influence the water cycle and the vigor of weather systems in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Our goal is to investigate the effects of fully coupling the dust and water cycles on the dust cycle. We show that including water ice clouds and their radiative effects greatly affect the magnitude, spatial extent and seasonality of dust lifting and the season of maximum atmospheric dust loading.

Kahre, M. A.↗

Simulating Mars' Dust Cycle with a Mars General Circulation Model: Effects of Water Ice Cloud Formation on Dust Lifting Strength and Seasonality

The dust cycle is critically important for the current climate of Mars. The radiative effects of dust impact the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere [1,2,3]. Although dust is present in the Martian atmosphere throughout the year, the level of dustiness varies with season. The atmosphere is generally the dustiest during northern fall and winter and the least dusty during northern spring and summer [4]. Dust particles are lifted into the atmosphere by dust storms that range in size from meters to thousands of kilometers across [5]. Regional storm activity is enhanced before northern winter solstice (Ls~200 degrees - 240 degrees), and after northern solstice (Ls~305 degrees - 340 degrees ), which produces elevated atmospheric dust loadings during these periods [5,6,7]. These pre- and post- solstice increases in dust loading are thought to be associated with transient eddy activity in the northern hemisphere with cross-equatorial transport of dust leading to enhanced dust lifting in the southern hemisphere [6]. Interactive dust cycle studies with Mars General Circulation Models (MGCMs) have included the lifting, transport, and sedimentation of radiatively active dust. Although the predicted global dust loadings from these simulations capture some aspects of the observed dust cycle, there are marked differences between the simulated and observed dust cycles [8,9,10]. Most notably, the maximum dust loading is robustly predicted by models to occur near northern winter solstice and is due to dust lifting associated with down slope flows on the flanks of the Hellas basin. Thus far, models have had difficulty simulating the observed pre- and post- solstice peaks in dust loading.

Kahre, Melinda A.↗

Lunar Topography and Basins Mapped Using a Clementine Stereo Digital Elevation Model

Planet-wide (1 km/pixel and 5 km/pixel) Digital Elevation Models (DEM) of the Moon have been produced using Clementine UVVIS (Ultraviolet-Visible) stereo. Six new basins have been discovered, two suspected basins have been confirmed, and the dimensions of existing basins better defined. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Cook, A. C.↗

On Venus impact basins - Viscous relaxation of topographic relief

The viscous relaxation with time of the topographic relief of impact basins on Venus is calculated under the assumption that the surface temperature of the planet has been at or near its presently high value since the time of basin formation. The effects of a decrease in effective viscosity with depth and of the partial to complete isostatic compensation of initial topography are included in the model. An impact basin several hundred kilometers or greater in diameter and three billion years old or older should have negligible topographic relief at present. On this basis, the hypothesis that quasi-circular features of low radar backscatter but little topographic relief may be relaxed remnants of ancient impact basins cannot be excluded. However, large quasi-circular depressions on Venus, such as Atlanta Planitia, are unlikely to be remnants of impact basins, because of their current relief, and so some other process should be found to account for them.

Solomon, S. C.↗

Sensitivities of subgrid-scale physics schemes, meteorological forcing, and topographic radiation in atmosphere-through-bedrock integrated process models: a case study in the Upper Colorado River basin

Abstract. Mountain hydrology is controlled by interacting processes extending from the atmosphere through the bedrock. Integrated process models (IPMs), one of the main tools needed to interpret observations and refine conceptual models of the mountainous water cycle, require meteorological forcing that simulates the atmospheric process to predict hydroclimate then subsequently impacts surface–subsurface hydrology. Complex terrain and extreme spatial heterogeneity in mountainous environments drive uncertainty in several key considerations in IPM configurations and require further quantification and sensitivity analyses. Here, we present an IPM using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model which forces an integrated hydrologic model, ParFlow-CLM, implemented over a domain centered over the East River watershed (ERW), located in the Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB). The ERW is a heavily instrumented 300 km2 region in the headwaters of the UCRB near Crested Butte, CO, with a growing atmosphere-through-bedrock observation network. Through a series of experiments in the water year 2019 (WY19), we use four meteorological forcings derived from commonly used reanalysis datasets, three subgrid-scale physics scheme configurations in WRF, and two terrain shading options within WRF to test the relative importance of these experimental design choices for key hydrometeorological metrics including precipitation and snowpack, as well as evapotranspiration, groundwater storage, and discharge simulated by the ParFlow-CLM. Our hypothesis is that uncertainty from synoptic-scale forcings produces a much larger spread in surface–subsurface hydrologic fields than subgrid-scale physics scheme choice. Results reveal that the WRF subgrid-scale physics configuration leads to larger spatiotemporal variance in simulated hydrometeorological conditions, whereas variance across meteorological forcing with common subgrid-scale physics configurations is more spatiotemporally constrained. Despite reasonably simulating precipitation, a delay in simulated discharge peak is due to a systematic cold bias across WRF simulations, suggesting the need for bias correction. Discharge shows greater variance in response to the WRF simulations across subgrid-scale physics schemes (26 %) rather than meteorological forcing (6 %). The topographic radiation option has minor effects on the watershed-average hydrometeorological processes but adds profound spatial heterogeneity to local energy budgets (±30 W m−2 in shortwave radiation and 1 K air temperature differences in late summer). This is the first presentation of sensitivity analyses that provide support to help guide the scientific community to develop observational constraints on atmosphere-through-bedrock processes and their interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Meteorite concentrations in Antarctica: How complete is the picture?

The importance of ice sheet flow as part of the process of concentrating meteorites in Antarctica is discussed. Ford and Tabor were the first to surmise that some type of ice sheet transport of Antarctic meteorites was likely considering that the Thiel Mountains pallasite was found on glacier ice without evidence of impact. It was found that meteorites were carried by the ice to regions of high ablation where they were periodically uncovered. Three models of concentration have been proposed to explain the phenomena of meteorite accumulations on blue ice fields. Model 1, is a general picture relating meteorite fall and accumulation to the entire Antarctic continent. Model 2 is based upon the petrographic examination of an 8m ice core from the Allan Hills Icefield and suggests a local origin of ice from the catchment basin. The third model is presented by Whillans and Cassidy who infer, by using conventional ice flow concepts, a path length as long as 1,000km from the sites of fall to recovery for Allan Hills specimens. Despite achievement of these working hypotheses, a number of questions must be resolved before a comprehensive model can be presented.

Annexstad, J. O.↗

Utilizing remote sensing of thematic mapper data to improve our understanding of estuarine processes and their influence on the productivity of estuarine-dependent fisheries

The land-water interface of coastal marshes may influence the production of estuarine-dependent fisheries more than the area of these marshes. To test this hypothesis, a spatial model was created to explore the dynamic relationship between marshland-water interface and level of disintegration in the decaying coastal marshes of Louisiana's Barataria, Terrebonne, and Timbalier basins. Calibrating the model with Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite imagery, a parabolic relationship was found between land-water interface and marsh disintegration. Aggregated simulation data suggest that interface in the study area will soon reach its maximum and then decline. A statistically significant positive linear relationship was found between brown shrimp catch and total interface length over the past 28 years. This relationship suggests that shrimp yields will decline when interface declines, possibly beginning about 1995.

Browder, Joan A.↗

Composition of Orientale basin deposits and implications for the lunar basin-forming process

The geologic, spectral and geochemical characteristics of the lunar Orientale basin are discussed, and a model is defined for the generation of Orientale basin deposits. The data indicate that the basin ejecta is composed mainly of anorthositic deposits and no crustal material. The crater was originally 500-600 km across and 50-60 km deep, the latter being too shallow to reach the projected 100 km crustal depth. A proportional growth model is judged acceptable for the Orientale basin. Finally, it is concluded that neither the Apollo 14 nor 16 missions obtained Orientale ejecta material, which could in any case be unidentifiable until more thorough samplings are made of a large portion of the lunar surface.

Spudis, P. D.↗

SMAP Soil Moisture Assimilation To Enhance Streamflow Estimates Across South Asia

Streamflow estimation across areas facing water scarcity is important considering the evolving climatic conditions. In this study, the impact of assimilating Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture retrievals on the modeled streamflow across three main river basins in South Asia is explored. Model estimated runoff was hydraulically routed using the HYMAP routing model within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. Streamflow estimates via soil moisture assimilation highlighted the potential improvements in streamflow across low-flow river tributaries in irrigated regions. Limited relative change was noted along high-flow river tributaries. Modeled streamflow tended to underestimate the flow magnitude at upstream stations and overestimated the streamflow at downstream stations within the Indus basin due to missing physics related to reservoir operation. Improvement of the modeling systems representativeness of the ground conditions by the inclusion of water management information would potentially improve the current streamflow modeling capability across South Asia.

Jawairia Ahmad↗