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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A Bayesian model for multivariate discrete data using spatial and expert information with application to inferring building attributes

When modeling sparsely observed multivariate data, strong prior information elicited from experts can be used to bolster predictive accuracy and counteract sampling bias. Similarly, modeling autocorrelation in space can help make use of co-occurrence patterns present in many types of spatial data. To make use of both expert prior information and spatial structure, we propose a novel graphical model for a spatial Bayesian network developed specifically to address challenges in inferring the attributes of buildings from geographically sparse observational data. This model is implemented as the sum of a spatial multivariate Gaussian random field and a tabular conditional probability function in real-valued space prior to projection onto the probability simplex. This modeling form is especially suitable for the usage of prior information in the form of sets of atomic rules obtained from experts. To perform inference with missing data, we implement a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme composed of alternating steps of Gibbs sampling of missing entries and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for model parameters. A case study in building attribution is presented to highlight the advantages and limitations of this approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian model-data comparison incorporating theoretical uncertainties

Accurate comparisons between theoretical models and experimental data are critical for scientific progress. However, inferred physical model parameters can vary significantly with the chosen physics model, highlighting the importance of properly accounting for theoretical uncertainties. In this Letter, we present a Bayesian framework that explicitly quantifies these uncertainties by statistically modeling theory errors, guided by qualitative knowledge of a theory’s varying reliability across the input domain. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach using two systems: a simple ball drop experiment and multi-stage heavy-ion simulations. In both cases incorporating model discrepancy leads to improved parameter estimates, with systematic improvements observed as additional experimental observables are integrated.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2026

Statistical inference of anomalous thermal transport with uncertainty quantification for interpretive 2D SOL models

The critical task of inferring anomalous cross-field transport coefficients is addressed in simulations of boundary plasmas with fluid models. A workflow for parameter inference in the UEDGE fluid code is developed using Bayesian optimization with parallelized sampling and integrated uncertainty quantification. In this workflow, transport coefficients are inferred by maximizing their posterior probability distribution, which is generally multidimensional and non-Gaussian. Uncertainty quantification is integrated throughout the optimization within the Bayesian framework that combines diagnostic uncertainties and model limitations. As a concrete example, we infer the anomalous electron thermal diffusivity $\chi_\perp$ from an interpretive 2D model describing electron heat transport in the conduction-limited region with radiative power loss. The workflow is first benchmarked against synthetic data and then tested on H-, L-, and I-mode discharges to match their midplane temperature and divertor heat flux profiles. We demonstrate that the workflow efficiently infers diffusivity and its associated uncertainty, generating 2D profiles that match 1D measurements. Future efforts will focus on incorporating more complicated fluid models and analyzing transport coefficients inferred from a large database of experimental results.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2022

Operator inference for non-intrusive model reduction with quadratic manifolds

This paper proposes a novel approach for learning a data-driven quadratic manifold from high-dimensional data, then employing this quadratic manifold to derive efficient physics-based reduced-order models. The key ingredient of the approach is a polynomial mapping between high-dimensional states and a low-dimensional embedding. This mapping consists of two parts: a representation in a linear subspace (computed in this work using the proper orthogonal decomposition) and a quadratic component. The approach can be viewed as a form of data-driven closure modeling, since the quadratic component introduces directions into the approximation that lie in the orthogonal complement of the linear subspace, but without introducing any additional degrees of freedom to the low-dimensional representation. Combining the quadratic manifold approximation with the operator inference method for projection-based model reduction leads to a scalable non-intrusive approach for learning reduced-order models of dynamical systems. Further, applying the new approach to transport-dominated systems of partial differential equations illustrates the gains in efficiency that can be achieved over approximation in a linear subspace.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2011

Sensitivity of Seawater Oxygen Isotopes to Climatic and Tectonic Boundary Conditions in an Early Paleogene Simulation with GISS ModelE-R

An isotope-enabled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GISS ModelE -R) is used to estimate the spatial gradients of the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (delta O-18(sub sw), where delta is the deviation from a known reference material in per mil) during the early Paleogene (45.65 Ma). Understanding the response of delta O-18(sub sw) to changes in climatic and tectonic boundary conditions is important because records of carbonate delta O-18 document changes in hydrology, as well as changes in temperature and global ice -volume. We present results from an early Paleogene configuration of ModelE -R which indicate that spatial gradients of surface ocean delta O-18(sub sw) during this period could have been significantly different to those in the modern ocean. The differences inferred from ModelE -R are sufficient to change early Paleogene sea surface temperature estimates derived from primary carbonate delta O-18 signatures by more than +/-2 C in large areas of the ocean. In the North Atlantic, Indian, and Southern Oceans, the differences in d18Osw inferred from our simulation with ModelE -R are in direct contrast with those from another d18O ]tracing model study which used different, but equally plausible, early Paleogene boundary conditions. The large differences in delta O-18(sub sw) between preindustrial and early Paleogene simulations, and between models, emphasizes the sensitivity of d18Osw to climatic and tectonic boundary conditions. For this reason, absolute estimates of Eocene/ Paleocene temperature derived from carbonate delta O-18 alone are likely to have larger uncertainties than are usually assumed.

Roberts, Christopher D.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Operator inference for non-intrusive model reduction of systems with non-polynomial nonlinear terms

Here in this work we present a non-intrusive model reduction method to learn low-dimensional models of dynamical systems with non-polynomial nonlinear terms that are spatially local and that are given in analytic form. In contrast to state-of-the-art model reduction methods that are intrusive and thus require full knowledge of the governing equations and the operators of a full model of the discretized dynamical system, the proposed approach requires only the non-polynomial terms in analytic form and learns the rest of the dynamics from snapshots computed with a potentially black-box full-model solver. The proposed method learns operators for the linear and polynomially nonlinear dynamics via a least-squares problem, where the given non-polynomial terms are incorporated on the right-hand side. The least-squares problem is linear and thus can be solved efficiently in practice. The proposed method is demonstrated on three problems governed by partial differential equations, namely the diffusion–reaction Chafee–Infante model, a tubular reactor model for reactive flows, and a batch-chromatography model that describes a chemical separation process. The numerical results provide evidence that the proposed approach learns reduced models that achieve comparable accuracy as models constructed with state-of-the-art intrusive model reduction methods that require full knowledge of the governing equations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards a dynamic photosynthesis model to guide yield improvement in C4 crops

Summary The most productive C4 food and biofuel crops, such as Saccharum officinarum (sugarcane), Sorghum bicolor (sorghum) and Zea mays (maize), all use NADP‐ME‐type C4 photosynthesis. Despite high productivities, these crops fall well short of the theoretical maximum solar conversion efficiency of 6%. Understanding the basis of these inefficiencies is key for bioengineering and breeding strategies to increase the sustainable productivity of these major C4 crops. Photosynthesis is studied predominantly at steady state in saturating light. In field stands of these crops light is continually changing, and often with rapid fluctuations. Although light may change in a second, the adjustment of photosynthesis may take many minutes, leading to inefficiencies. We measured the rates of CO 2 uptake and stomatal conductance of maize, sorghum and sugarcane under fluctuating light regimes. The gas exchange results were combined with a new dynamic photosynthesis model to infer the limiting factors under non‐steady‐state conditions. The dynamic photosynthesis model was developed from an existing C4 metabolic model for maize and extended to include: (i) post‐translational regulation of key photosynthetic enzymes and their temperature responses; (ii) dynamic stomatal conductance; and (iii) leaf energy balance. Testing the model outputs against measured rates of leaf CO 2 uptake and stomatal conductance in the three C4 crops indicated that Rubisco activase, the pyruvate phosphate dikinase regulatory protein and stomatal conductance are the major limitations to the efficiency of NADP‐ME‐type C4 photosynthesis during dark‐to‐high light transitions. We propose that the level of influence of these limiting factors make them targets for bioengineering the improved photosynthetic efficiency of these key crops.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Power System Frequency Dynamics Modeling, State Estimation, and Control using Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs) and Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) Machine Learning Approaches

With the global energy transition of the electric power system, grid control, supervision, and protection is becoming more challenging. With the increasing integration of renewable energy sources (RES), the system dynamics are changing, causing traditional power system dynamic modeling with swing equation-based modeling approaches to fail. Additionally, the converter-dominated power grid is decreasing the system inertia, making the power system more fragile to the frequency swings. This paper first investigates and compares the application of a model-based Kalman filter state estimation approach with (i) a model-free machine learning approach --- neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) --- and (ii) a data-driven system identification (SysId) approach to model and infer critical state values of the power system frequency dynamics. Then a model predictive control (MPC) framework is compared to a model-free Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) reinforcement learning (RL) control algorithm in providing efficient fast frequency response (FFR) to the power system frequency dynamics. The approaches are compared in terms of their performance goals as well as their per-timestep computational efficiency. Furthermore, the comparative study for state estimation shows that for the model-free requirement, both NODEs and SysId can provide accurate state estimates; however, with increasing model complexity, NODEs can be a better choice for model identification. Similarly, the results from the FFR comparative study show that the SAC RL-based FFR, once trained, outperforms MPC with better control signals and faster computation time, making the SAC RL-based FFR better option for providing FFR to the power system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transmission risk of Oropouche fever across the Americas

Abstract Background Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are important contributors to the global burden of infectious diseases due to their epidemic potential, which can result in significant population and economic impacts. Oropouche fever, caused by Oropouche virus (OROV), is an understudied zoonotic VBD febrile illness reported in Central and South America. The epidemic potential and areas of likely OROV spread remain unexplored, limiting capacities to improve epidemiological surveillance. Methods To better understand the capacity for spread of OROV, we developed spatial epidemiology models using human outbreaks as OROV transmission-locality data, coupled with high-resolution satellite-derived vegetation phenology. Data were integrated using hypervolume modeling to infer likely areas of OROV transmission and emergence across the Americas. Results Models based on one-support vector machine hypervolumes consistently predicted risk areas for OROV transmission across the tropics of Latin America despite the inclusion of different parameters such as different study areas and environmental predictors. Models estimate that up to 5 million people are at risk of exposure to OROV. Nevertheless, the limited epidemiological data available generates uncertainty in projections. For example, some outbreaks have occurred under climatic conditions outside those where most transmission events occur. The distribution models also revealed that landscape variation, expressed as vegetation loss, is linked to OROV outbreaks. Conclusions Hotspots of OROV transmission risk were detected along the tropics of South America. Vegetation loss might be a driver of Oropouche fever emergence. Modeling based on hypervolumes in spatial epidemiology might be considered an exploratory tool for analyzing data-limited emerging infectious diseases for which little understanding exists on their sylvatic cycles. OROV transmission risk maps can be used to improve surveillance, investigate OROV ecology and epidemiology, and inform early detection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictive Indicators of the Performance of Large Language Models

In several mission contexts, it is desirable to estimate the performance of large language models (LLMs) on tasks that we cannot run directly. In light of published “scaling laws” our hypothesis is that some tasks should be consistently more challenging than others based on characteristics of the task. The goal of this project was to begin quantifying how much information about LLM performance can be gained from the features of a model and a task. Two of our statistical models struggled to converge. Pass/fail test results may provide limited information for inference beyond model quality and task difficulty, but we see no evidence at this time for significant feature interaction effect sizes, arguing for simple models. Future work extending the models to capitalize on perplexity of ground truth answers is suggested. This project also introduces “Depth of Knowledge Variant Testing” as a strategy for more finely assessing language models on open domain question and answer tasks. We developed sets of questions that ask a language model to produce similar information while demonstrating increasing depth of knowledge, and also relabeled existing Q&A test questions with their depth of knowledge. Our results suggest further consideration of Bloom’s taxonomy and further refinement of prompts to properly elicit information at varying depths. In the course of this work, we set up a basic infrastructure for standardizing tasks and testing many language models on these tasks. In addition to testing the predictive quality of model features and performance across test suites, with this project we have introduced two new task features to contextualize each test question: the Dewey Classification main category of information covered, and the Bloom’s taxonomy level that corresponds to the depth of knowledge probed by the question. Splits across these and other features produced over five hundred task subtypes with distinct feature vectors, which we tested on half a dozen models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1992

Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope observations of the Cygnus Loop

Attention is given to UV images of a 40-arcmin field in the northeast part of the Cygnus Loop made by the Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (UIT) during the Astro-1 mission in December 1990. The longest FUV (B5) exposure is compared with ground-based and X-ray observations and with models. It is inferred from SNR shock models that C IV 1550 A dominates for more typical conditions in SNRs, and IUE spectra exhibit a strong correlation between C IV 1550-A flux and UIT B5 flux. The B5 image resembles images in forbidden O III 5007 A, but to the east of the edge of the forbidden O III filaments there is a faint C IV emission, consistent with nonradiative shocked material behind the SNR blast wave. Conditions in shocked gases that lead to C IV emission are similar to those that produce forbidden O III. Hence the ratio of the B5 and forbidden O III intensities can be used to map the optical depths of the sheetlike regions that emit the C IV resonance line.

Cornett, Robert H.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improvement of two-phase closure models in CTF using Bayesian inference

Under the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) program, extensive capabilities have been developed in CTF to analyze light-water reactors (LWRs) for normal operating conditions, departure from nucleate boiling (DNB), and system transients. However, further improvements are required in the modeling and simulation of boiling water reactors (BWRs), which is a focus of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. In this work, CTF validation results were used to optimize selected modeling coefficients by calibrating to experimental data using a Bayesian inference approach. Here, calibration studies were conducted to improve (vapor) void fraction prediction without worsening the two-phase pressure drop prediction, as well as to improve the two-phase pressure drop prediction. Calibration was performed for interfacial drag and wall shear models. Surrogates were developed to alleviate the computational expense required for sampling the parameter space using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). An assessment performed with calibrated models demonstrated an improvement of CTF in its prediction of key parameters such as void fraction and two-phase pressure drop.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian uncertainty quantification of tristructural isotropic particle fuel silver release: Decomposing model inadequacy plus experimental noise and parametric uncertainties

Tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel is one of the most promising fuel concepts enabling high temperature and high burnup reactor operation. One dominant source of radioactivity released from the TRISO particles is silver (Ag), which is subject to a high release fraction and long decay life compared to other fission products. Previous modeling efforts using the fuel performance code BISON indicated nonnegligible uncertainties in modeling the diffusion process of fission products in TRISO compared to the Advanced Gas Reactor experiments. The overall uncertainties observed when modeling the fission product diffusion can result from uncertainties in model parameters, noisy experimental measurements, and deficiencies in the developed models. The three types of underlying uncertainties have not yet been properly quantified in open literature. Here, this paper presents the Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) using massively parallelizable Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers. The uncertainties due to model parameters, model inadequacy, and experimental measurement noise are quantified, with the σ term used to represent the sum of the model inadequacy and measurement noise uncertainties. It is worth noting that this is the first time the σ term is inferred for nuclear fuel experiments, as compared to using prescribed values for uncertainty quantification in previous work. The parallelizable Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers efficiently infer the model parameters and the σ term, giving insight into physical parameters like diffusion coefficients and the combined model discrepancy and measurement noise. A subsequent forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) is also performed based on the calibration results to generate more accurate predictions of the Ag release. The model inadequacy plus experimental noise is the most dominant source of uncertainty compared to the parametric uncertainty. All the UQ analyses presented in this work are based on the second series of the irradiation experiments in the Advanced Gas Reactor program.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2019

Using Deep Learning to Automate Inference of Meteoroid Pre-Entry Properties

Properly assessing the asteroid threat depends on the knowledge of asteroid pre-entry parameters, such as size, velocity, mass, density, and strength. Although a vast number of possible bodies to study exist, such characterization of asteroid populations is currently limited by substantial costs associated with space rendezvous missions and rare meteorite findings. As asteroids fragment, ablate, and decelerate in the atmosphere, they emit light detectable by ground-based and space-borne instruments. Earth’s atmosphere, thus, becomes an accessible laboratory that enables impactor risk assessments by facilitating inference of the pre-entry parameters. These asteroid pre-entry conditions are typically deduced by modeling the entry and breakup physics that best reproduce the observed light or energy deposition curve. However, this process requires extensive manual trial-and-error of uncertain modeling parameters. Automating meteor modeling and inference would improve property distributions used in risk assessments and enable population characterization as more light curves become more readily available through the presence of space assets and ground-based camera networks. We previously developed a genetic algorithm to automate meteor modeling by using the fragment-cloud model (FCM) to search for the values of the FCM input parameters (e.g., diameter) that generate energy deposition profiles that match the observed one. Now, we apply deep learning to infer asteroid diameter, velocity, and density from observed energy deposition curves. We trained and tested our neural network models with synthetic energy deposition curves modeled using the FCM rubble pile implementation. We present an application of a 1D convolutional neural network and compare its performance to other attempted regressors and machine learning techniques, such as a fully connected neural network and Random Forest regression, to demonstrate its capabilities. We validate our model weights and approach using the Chelyabinsk, Tagish Lake, Benešov, Košice, and Lost City meteors.

Tarano, Ana Maria↗
DOE OSTI2025

Point cloud-based diffusion models for the Electron-Ion Collider

At high-energy collider experiments, generative models can be used for a wide range of tasks, including fast detector simulations, unfolding, searches of physics beyond the Standard Model, and inference tasks. In particular, it has been demonstrated that score-based diffusion models can generate high-fidelity and accurate samples of jets or collider events. This work expands on previous generative models in three distinct ways. First, our model is trained to generate entire collider events, including all particle species with complete kinematic information. We quantify how well the model learns event-wide constraints such as the conservation of momentum and discrete quantum numbers. We focus on the events at the future Electron-Ion Collider, but we expect that our results can be extended to proton-proton and heavy-ion collisions. Second, previous generative models often relied on image-based techniques. The sparsity of the data can negatively affect the fidelity and sampling time of the model. We address these issues using point clouds and a novel architecture combining edge creation with transformer modules called Point Edge Transformers. Third, we adapt the foundation model OmniLearn, to generate full collider events. This approach may indicate a transition toward adapting and fine-tuning foundation models for downstream tasks instead of training new models from scratch.

Araz, Jack Y. [Stony Brook Univ., NY (United State↗
DOE OSTI2024

TDCOSMO - XVI. Measurement of the Hubble constant from the lensed quasar WGD 2038–4008

Time-delay cosmography is a powerful technique to constrain cosmological parameters, particularly the Hubble constant (H0). The TDCOSMO Collaboration is performing an ongoing analysis of lensed quasars to constrain cosmology using this method. In this work, we obtain constraints from the lensed quasar WGD 2038−4008 using new time-delay measurements and previous mass models by TDCOSMO. This is the first TDCOSMO lens to incorporate multiple lens modeling codes and the full time-delay covariance matrix into the cosmological inference. The models are fixed before the time delay is measured, and the analysis is performed blinded with respect to the cosmological parameters to prevent unconscious experimenter bias. We obtain DΔ t = 1.68−0.38+0.40 Gpc using two families of mass models, a power-law describing the total mass distribution, and a composite model of baryons and dark matter, although the composite model is disfavored due to kinematics constraints. In a flat ΛCDM cosmology, we constrain the Hubble constant to be H0 = 65−14+23 km s−1 Mpc−1. The dominant source of uncertainty comes from the time delays, due to the low variability of the quasar. Future long-term monitoring, especially in the era of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time, could catch stronger quasar variability and further reduce the uncertainties. This system will be incorporated into an upcoming hierarchical analysis of the entire TDCOSMO sample, and improved time delays and spatially-resolved stellar kinematics could strengthen the constraints from this system in the future.Key words: gravitational lensing: strong / cosmological parameters / distance scale⋆ Corresponding author; kcwong19@gmail.com.⋆⋆ NHFP Einstein fellow.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2005

Spreading of thermonuclear flames on the neutron star in SAX J1808.4-3658: an observational tool

We analyse archival Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) proportional counter array (PCA) data of thermonuclear X-ray bursts from the 2002 outburst of the accreting millisecond pulsar SAX 51808.4-3658. We present evidence of a complex frequency modulation of oscillations during burst rise, and correlations among the time evolution of the oscillation frequency, amplitude, and the inferred burning region area. We discuss these findings in the context of a model, based on thermonuclear flame spreading on the neutron star surface, that can qualitatively explain these features. From our model, we infer that for the 2002 Oct. 15 thermonuclear burst, the ignition likely occurred in the mid-latitudes, the burning region took approx. 0.2 s to nearly encircle the equatorial region of the neutron star, and after that the lower amplitude oscillation originated from the remaining asymmetry of the burning front in the same hemisphere where the burst ignited. We emphasize that studies of the evolution of burst oscillation properties during burst rise can provide a powerful tool to understand thermonuclear flame spreading on neutron star surfaces under extreme physical conditions.

Bhattacharyya, Sudip↗
DOE OSTI2019

Investigation of high X-ray conversion efficiency Kr filled gas sources at the National Ignition Facility

In this work, we report on the performance of high x-ray fluence Kr K-shell sources that are being developed for high energy density experiments. These targets are 4.1 mm in diameter 4.4 mm tall hollow epoxy tubes having a 40 μm thick wall holding 1.5 atm of Kr gas. For these shots, the National Ignition Facility laser delivered a nominally constant total energy of ≈750 kJ of 351 nm (3ω) light at the three power levels [e.g., ≈120 (low), ≈145 (medium), and ≈210 TW (high)]. The Kr K-shell (E photon = 8–20 keV) x-ray radiant intensity and radiant energy (kJ/sr) of these sources were found to increase as a function of laser power but began to plateau at the highest laser power. The Kr K-shell radiant energy increased from ≈1 kJ/sr at ≈120 TW to ≈2 kJ/sr at ≈210 TW. Radiation hydrodynamics simulations predict radiant energies to be always higher than these measurements. The increase in K-shell emission is attributed to its strong dependence on the electron temperature. Electron temperature distributions were inferred from measured Heα and Lyα line emission through the use of a genetic algorithm and Scram modeling. The inferred temperatures from the experiment are 20% to 30% higher than those predicted from modeling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗