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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Diii-D Research Advancing The Physics Basis For Optimizing The Tokamak Approach To Fusion Energy

DIII-D physics research addresses critical challenges for operation of ITER and the next generation of fusion energy devices. This is done through a focus on innovations to provide solutions for high performance long pulse operation, coupled with fundamental plasma physics understanding and model validation, to drive scenario development by integrating high performance core and boundary plasmas. Substantial increases in off-axis current drive efficiency from an innovative top launch system for EC power, and in pressure broadening for Alfven eigenmode control from a co-/counter-Ip steerable off-axis neutral beam, all improve the prospects for optimization of future long pulse/steady state high performance tokamak operation. Fundamental studies into the modes that drive the evolution of the pedestal pressure profile and electron vs. ion heat flux validate predictive models of pedestal recovery after ELMs. Understanding the physics mechanisms of ELM control and density pumpout by 3D magnetic perturbation fields leads to confident predictions for ITER and future devices. Validated modeling of high-Z shattered pellet injection for disruption mitigation, runaway electron dissipation, and techniques for disruption prediction and avoidance including machine learning, give confidence in handling disruptivity for future devices. With this physics understanding and suite of actuators, a high poloidal beta optimized-core scenario with an internal transport barrier that projects nearly to Q=10 in ITER at 9 MA was coupled to a detached divertor, and a near Super H-mode optimized-pedestal scenario with co-Ip beam injection, was coupled to a radiative divertor. The Hybrid core scenario was achieved directly, without the need for internal flux pumping, using off-axis current drive actuators, and a controller to avoid mode locking and disruptions in the ITER baseline scenario, based on plasma response to probing 3D fields, was demonstrated. Finally innovative tokamak operation using a negative triangularity shape showed many attractive features for future pilot plant operation.

Fenstermacher, M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Riverine Plastic Pollution: Sampling and Analysis Methods

Riverine plastic pollution has been found in all major U.S. rivers, but the exact amount of plastic being released to the oceans has not been quantified. Field studies conducted in U.S. rivers have used a range of sampling and analysis techniques and rarely measured the mass of the plastic collected. Measurements of riverine plastic pollution are needed to calibrate and validate models used to estimate the U.S. riverine plastic emissions to the oceans. This report surveys measurement methods used to quantify riverine pollution and current estimates of U.S. riverine plastic pollution from measurements and models. Measurement methods include field sampling and laboratory analysis. Field sampling methods are described for large (macro) and small (micro) plastic particles. Laboratory analysis methods are described for macro and microplastic with an emphasis on the detailed characterization processes of microplastics. Waterborne leachate analysis is also briefly described. Three models are described that estimate plastic pollution based on mismanaged plastic waste in the river catchment basins. The models were validated and calibrated with global data sources. The data sources were predominantly outside of the U.S., where the magnitude and composition of plastic pollution is different than what is found in U.S. rivers. Comprehensive measurements of riverine plastics are needed not only to characterize the riverine plastic pollution, but also parameterize and validate models of plastic fate and transport. This report also describes five key U.S. rivers that span a range of sizes and environmental conditions that could be sampled to obtain data to support characterization and model development of plastic pollution from rivers to oceans. Sampling and analysis protocol recommendations are made to ensure the highest quality of data are collected in the five rivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Offline Power Systems Applications Enabled by Phasor Measurement Units: Technical Assistance to the Power Sectors of Southeast Asia

This report provides a brief overview of several offline (non-real-time) applications facilitated by high-resolution time-synchronized measurements recorded by phasor measurement units (PMUs). The high reporting rate and time-synchronization of PMU records provide a detailed view of power system dynamics, enabling electric utilities to obtain a better understanding of their systems. In this report, the following applications have been reviewed: Power plant model validation, System model validation, Ringdown oscillation analysis, Frequency response analysis, Postmortem analysis of disturbance events Along with a brief technical background of the applications above, applicable North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) standards have been discussed, and examples of implementation in North American organizations have been provided. Implementing several of the discussed applications may need a preliminary stage of data gathering from multiple entities, and several frameworks and process flows have been formulated by organizations around the world for this purpose. However, the data-gathering stage has not been considered in the scope of the present report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrated behavior-based infrastructure command validation

A cybersecurity infrastructure command validation system is provided herein for validating asset commands issued within an infrastructure network. The cybersecurity infrastructure command validation system can be integrated into an infrastructure network to monitor and validate infrastructure asset commands in real-time or while the infrastructure network is active. The cybersecurity infrastructure command validation system can receive or intercept commands issued by asset controllers. The cybersecurity infrastructure command validation system can validate the commands based on a command validation model. The command validation model can represent normal operating behavior of the infrastructure network. The cybersecurity infrastructure command validation system can provide valid commands to the intended infrastructure asset, or can reject invalid commands. The cybersecurity infrastructure command validation system can store validation results for use in updating the command validation model. The cybersecurity infrastructure command validation system can flag or otherwise warn the infrastructure network or administrators of invalid commands.

Akyol, Bora A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Verification and Validation of Flow Confinement Modeling using OpenFAST Source Panel Method

Blockage or flow confinement effects in scale wind and water turbine testing in experimental facilities, including wind and water tunnels and tow tanks, can significantly alter incident aerodynamic and hydrodynamic loads, turbine performance (thrust, torque, power output), and wake dynamics compared to unconfined conditions. As scale model tests are key sources of OpenFAST model validation measurements, directly modeling flow confinement and its effects in OpenFAST enables improved model validat

Kim, Dongyoung [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-↗
DOE OSTI2023

Validated CFD Model for Multimode Gasoline Compression Ignition Engine

A validated CFD model for the multimode combustion engine developed under the DOE funded project DE-EE0008478 (Co-optimized Mixed-Mode Engine and Fuel Demonstrator for Improved Fuel Economy while Meeting Emissions Requirements). It incorporates advanced physics-based fuel surrogate models for thermophysical properties and reaction kinetics. The combustion modes include spark ignition (SI), low temperature combustion (LTC), and compression ignition (CI). The real fuel model was validated for RON60, RON70, RON80, RON90, and two biofuel blends. The validation cases can be found in https://doi.org/10.2172/1887341.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Capability in Theory, Modeling, and Validation for a Range of Innovative Fusion Concepts using High-Fidelity Moment-Kinetic Models

A computational modeling capability is created and available to the fusion community to understand and design lower-cost and innovative fusion concepts. The approach uses high- fidelity kinetic, moment-kinetic, and moment models and includes sophisticated plasma- boundary interactions. A majority of fusion-relevant simulations are performed with magnetohydrodynamic models and hybrid particle-in-cell codes, with limited-fidelity electron and kinetic physics. However, in fusion configurations like Z-pinches, field-reversed- configurations, plasma jet magneto-inertial fusion, spinning mirrors, and others, kinetic effects (both electron and ions) are critical to understand the physics and design scaling into the highly kinetic regime of a burning fusion plasma. Furthermore, as present fusion machines move towards a burning plasma regime, liquid-metal blankets are needed to handle first-wall heat- flux, reduce erosion, and eventually for energy conversion and fuel breeding. The work performed under this ARPA-E BETHE Capability Team advances the state-of-the-art in modeling and understanding plasma dynamics in fusion devices and its coupling with liquid-metal dynamics. These are critical areas of research for fusion energy to become realizable. To address these complex problems, we have leveraged and extended computational capabilities through the code, Gkeyll (developed jointly with Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and academic partners), for kinetic and moment modeling of fusion plasmas. The Concept Teams supported by this Capability Team include the Wisconsin High-field Axisymmetric Mirror (WHAM), Centrifugal Mirror Experiment (CFME), Plasma-Jet Magneto- Inertial Fusion (PJMIF), and solid and liquid wall plasma-material interaction studies relevant to a number of fusion concepts including Zap Energy’s Z-pinch. This software is open-source and available to the fusion community as a high-fidelity tool for the design of lower-cost fusion experiments. 3D gyrokinetic simulations of WHAM are now possible for long enough time scales to understand the evolution of interchange instabilities. 3D multi-fluid simulations of CMFE at higher Mach numbers are now possible for detailed design iterations with the goal of stability. The state-of-the-art in understanding shock formation and shock mitigation regimes in merging liners for PJMIF have been furthered by our kinetic simulations. Our novel models and frameworks studying plasma-material interaction by incorporating wall emission for various solid wall materials of relevance to pulsed and steady fusion concepts have advanced the state-of-the-art in our understanding of particle fluxes, heat fluxes, and other quantities at cathodes and anodes. The results from this work may explain discrepancies between experimental and theoretical predictions of achieved current densities in pulsed concepts such as Z-pinches. Another significant contribution of this Capability Team is the development and deployment of a novel experimental platform, LEX (Liquid Electrode eXperiment), at Virginia Tech to understand liquid metal free-surface response to electromagnetic pulses. The novel experiments along with model validation quantified the effect of different materials and sizes of liquid metal droplets on the radiative power balance of fusion plasmas for pulsed concepts. Furthermore, these experiments provided mitigation strategies for violent liquid metal response for high current pulses as would be expected in fusion regimes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: DR6 power spectrum foreground model and validation

We discuss the model of astrophysical emission at millimeter wavelengths used to characterize foregrounds in the multi-frequency power spectra of the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6), expanding on Louis et al. (2025) (2503.14452). We detail several tests to validate the capability of the DR6 parametric foreground model to describe current observations and complex simulations, and show that cosmological parameter constraints are robust against model extensions and variations. We demonstrate consistency of the model with pre-DR6 ACT data and observations from Planck and the South Pole Telescope. We evaluate the implications of using different foreground templates and extending the model with new components and/or free parameters. In all scenarios, the DR6 ΛCDM and ΛCDM+N eff cosmological parameters shift by less than 0.5σ relative to the baseline constraints. Some foreground parameters shift more; we estimate their systematic uncertainties associated with modeling choices. From our constraint on the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich power, we obtain a conservative limit on the duration of reionization of Δz rei < 4.4, assuming a reionization midpoint consistent with optical depth measurements and a minimal low-redshift contribution, with varying assumptions for this component leading to tighter limits. Finally, we analyze realistic non-Gaussian, correlated microwave sky simulations containing Galactic and extragalactic foreground fields, built independently of the DR6 parametric foreground model. Processing these simulations through the DR6 power spectrum and likelihood pipeline, we recover the input cosmological parameters of the underlying cosmic microwave background field, a new demonstration for small-scale CMB analysis. These tests validate the robustness of the ACT DR6 foreground model and cosmological parameter constraints.

CMBR experiments↗
DOE OSTI2022

Building Model Calibration: Validation of GridLAB-D Thermal Dynamics Modeling

This report investigates how well GridLAB-D’s house model characterizes the thermal dynamics of buildings given the overpredicted diurnal electric load swing observed in the Distribution System Operation with Transactive (DSO+T) study. This study seeks to validate GridLAB-D’s house model by calibrating it to data from the well-instrumented Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Lab Homes in Richland, WA. The datasets chosen included multiple pre-cooling and pre-heating testing periods where the indoor air temperature was allowed to float over a multi-hour length of time to mimic diurnal behavior. The multi-season calibrations were evaluated by comparing the heating/cooling electric power, indoor air temperature, and the rise/decay time during temperature float periods with Lab Homes data. The default GridLAB-D assumptions for latent load fraction, air heat capacity, mass heat capacity, window-to-wall-ratio, overall envelope conductance (assumed as NORMAL thermal integrity level), and solar heat gain coefficient were compared with the calibrated model to confirm when the default assumptions were adequate and the impact of calibration on the accuracy of modeling the thermal dynamics of homes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validating corrosion models: Influence of physical properties

In chloride containing environments, two metals in physical contact can undergo galvanic corrosion limiting the lifetime of components. Being able to accurately predict galvanic corrosion damage distributions over time has not been widely presented in literature. Therefore, Finite Element Method (FEM) corrosion models were experimentally validated for two galvanic couples as a function of governing equations, environment, anode material, anode:cathode ratio, and time. Carbon steel/stainless steel (CS/SS) and zinc/stainless steel (Zn/SS) galvanic couples were exposed to NaCl solutions at room temperatures for up to 14 days. For the galvanic couples and environments, the Laplace equation with variable conductivity and reactions was sufficient to model the experimental corrosion damage. Increasing the chloride concentration for the CS/SS galvanic couple, regardless of the anode:cathode ratio, decreased the observed and modeled corrosion damage. Decreasing the anode:cathode ratio (i.e., increasing the cathode length), increased the experimentally observed and modeled corrosion damage. For small anode:cathode ratios, the governing equations deviate over long time periods with the Nernst-Plank equation being conservative. For the Zn/SS galvanic couple, the cathode length controls the dominant cathodic reduction reaction. For small cathode lengths, the hydrogen evolution reaction is dominant. For larger cathode lengths, the oxygen reduction reaction is dominant. The results are discussed with regard to the influence of solution chemistry, ohmic drop, and governing reactions. Overall, validated FEM models were presented, and the resultant models, physics, and mechanisms can be applied to other corrosion scenarios with confidence.

Carbon steel↗
DOE OSTI2019

Validation Tests of Resuspension Models for a Finite and Infinite Site

Dose assessment for deposited radionuclides often requires estimates of air concentrations that are derived from measured soil concentrations. For this, dose assessors typically use literature resuspension values that while empirically based, can vary by orders of magnitude making it difficult to provide accurate dose estimates. Despite the complexities of the physical processes involved in resuspension, the models generally used for dose assessment are relatively simplistic and rarely are the models validated for a specific site, thus making prediction of air concentrations or airborne emissions highly uncertain. Additionally, the size of the contaminated area can have an impact on downwind concentrations, yet literature values do not account for smaller-sized contaminated sites adding additional uncertainty. To test resuspension models for soil-bound radionuclides at finite and infinite spatial scales, measurements of soil and air concentrations are made at 1) a location downwind of a former outfall where plutonium-239 was released into the environment ( a finite site), and 2) uncontaminated locations where regional air sampling provides background measurements of naturally occurring uranium-238 in sampled dust (an infinite site). Measured air concentrations were compared to those predicted using the Resuspension Factor Model and the Mass Loading Model. An Area Factor was applied to the smaller contaminated site to account for dilution of dust from the contaminated site with dust originating from offsite locations. Here, results show that when properly parameterized to site conditions, resuspension models can predict air concentrations to within a factor of ten.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Multiscale Modeling of CO 2 Migration and Trapping in Fractured Reservoirs with Validation by Model Comparison and Real-Site Applications (Final Technical Report)

This report documents the accomplishments achieved during the project titled “Multiscale Modeling of CO 2 Migration and Trapping in Fractured Reservoirs with Validation by Model Comparison and Real-Site Applications” funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy. The objectives of the project were to develop modeling capabilities for predicting CO 2 and brine migration in fractured reservoirs during geologic carbon storage and to investigate the feasibility of carbon storage in fractured reservoirs using the newly developed modeling capabilities. To achieve these objectives new mass transfer functions were developed to adapt existing dual-continuum approaches – a commonly used approach in hydrocarbon reservoir modeling – to the CO 2 -brine system. In the dual-continuum approach the undisturbed rock matrix and the fractures are modeled as two separate continua, which are coupled through mass exchange of CO 2 and brine between the two continua. Mass transfer functions represent the mass exchange between fractures and the rock matrix, without requiring highly resolved numerical grids of individual fractures, thus allowing large modeling domains relevant to geologic carbon storage questions (tens of meters to hundreds of kilometers). Mass transfer functions for the exchange of both free-phase CO 2 and brine between fractures and rock matrix were developed for both the injection phase and the post-injection phase. During the injection phase the fractures are filled with CO 2 , while the rock matrix is initially filled with brine. Therefore, a mass transfer function was developed that is based on vertical displacement of brine by CO 2 in the rock matrix due to gravitational forces. Once CO 2 injection ceases and CO 2 migrates away from the direct vicinity of the injection site, the fractures will begin to re-fill with brine, while the rock matrix will have high CO 2 saturations. For these conditions a mass transfer functions was developed that is based on spontaneous imbibition, as the pore spaces in the rock matrix are much smaller than in the fractures. For formations with low permeability or high capillary entry pressure of the rock matrix, free-phase CO 2 may not be able to enter the rock matrix. However, free-phase CO 2 at the interface between fractures and rock matrix can dissolve into brine resident in the rock matrix. Therefore, additional mass transfer functions were developed based on aqueous-phase diffusion of CO 2 through the rock matrix. These mass transfer functions are based on existing solutions for diffusion and were expanded to be applicable to a variety of block shapes relevant to dual-continuum modeling. Implementations of the newly developed mass transfer functions showed that they give accurate results when compared to highly resolved models. In addition to developing new transfer functions, a new vertically-integrated dual-continuum modeling framework was developed. This development takes advantage of fast vertical segregation of CO 2 and brine in the fractures due to the density difference between CO 2 and brine and the high permeability of the fractures. Therefore, a vertically-integrated vertical equilibrium model for the fractures is coupled with a vertically-distributed model for the rock matrix. The newly developed approach significantly reduces the computational effort, but is only accurate for fracture permeabilities of 100 mD or higher. Finally, the newly developed models were applied to real and hypothetical geologic carbon storage sites to investigate the feasibility of using fractured reservoirs for carbon storage. The general results were, that storage of CO 2 – both as free-phase and dissolved – is feasible, but that storage capacities are likely lower than in unfractured systems. While the high permeability of the fractures reduces the injection pressure (or permits higher injection rates), fast migration of CO 2 may limit the overall storage volume, because CO 2 may escape laterally with not enough of the rock matrix being swept for effective storage.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evaluating the Sources of Uncertainties in the Measurements from Multiple Pyranometers and Pyrheliometers

Traceable radiometric data sets are essential for validating climate models, validating satellite-based models for estimating solar resources, and validating solar radiation forecasts. The current state-of-the-art radiometers have uncertainties in the range from 2% - 5% and sometimes more [1]. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and other organizations are identifying uncertainties and improving radiometric measurement performance and developing a consensus methodology for acquiring radiometric data. This study analyzes the impact of differing specifications -- such as cosine response, thermal offset, spectral response, and others -- on the accuracy of radiometric data for various radiometers. The study will also provide insight on how to perform a measurement uncertainty analysis and how to reduce the impact of some of the sources of uncertainties.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wave Energy Converter Power Take-Off Modeling and Validation From Experimental Bench Tests

This article describes the implementation of a new numerical model of the power take-off system installed in the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute wave energy converter, a device developed to provide power to various oceanic research missions. The simultaneous presence of hydraulic, pneumatic, and electrical subsystems in the power take-off system represents a significant challenge in forging an accurate model able to replicate the main dynamic characteristics of the system. The validation of the new numerical model is addressed by comparing simulations with the measurements obtained during a series of bench tests. Data from the bench tests show good agreement with the numerical model. The validated model provides deeper insights into the complex nonlinear dynamics of the power take-off system and will support further performance improvements in the future.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental validation of multiphysics model simulations of the thermal response of a cement clinker rotary kiln at laboratory scale

Abstract An increasing demand for buildings, transportation systems and civil infrastructure development has driven expansion of cement consumption world‐wide, producing a significant increase in related global energy demand. With approximately 7% of the world‐wide industrial energy consumption (10.7 exajoules [EJ]), the cement industry is the third most energy intensive industrial processes and a key component for concrete, the most consumed composite material in the global construction industry. In cement manufacturing, the cement kiln accounts for most of the energy consumption in the production process. As the heart of a cement plant, the cement kiln is where the kiln feed primarily containing calcium oxide (CaO), silica (SiO 2 ), alumina (Al 2 O 3 ), and iron (Fe 2 O 3 ) are thermally and chemically transformed into clinker minerals. The presented work developed a multiphysics model, designed and built a laboratory‐scale rotary cement clinker kiln, and produced cement clinker at laboratory‐scale. The model was developed to study the interaction between the various thermal, fluid dynamic and chemical interactions involved in the sintering process used to form Portland cement clinker in an effort to reduce energy use. The analytical model was validated through experimental testing using a unique laboratory‐scale rotary cement kiln developed during the investigation. Also demonstrated was the feasibility of producing clinker at laboratory scale. This modeling and lab scale tests were designed to better understand the clinker sintering process so that operational and quality decisions can be made to optimize energy consumption without compromising cement clinker quality. The computational fluid dynamics modeling was developed in COMSOL Multiphysics 6.0. The characteristics of the combustion fluid flow, concentration of species, temperature and heat transfer were studied for a turbulent flow of methane (CH 4 ) gas and oxygen (O 2 ). Theory suggests that heat transfer impacts the cement production process but the multiphysics model more accurately describes the convection, conduction, and radiant heat transfer in the kilning process and thus allows for a better understanding of the energy exchange driving the chemical reactions that produce Portland cement. Clinker minerals were formed because of appropriate burning conditions implemented during experimental model validation.

Tabares, Juan David↗
DOE OSTI2024

Calibration verification for stochastic agent-based disease spread models

Accurate disease spread modeling is crucial for identifying the severity of outbreaks and planning effective mitigation efforts. To be reliable when applied to new outbreaks, model calibration techniques must be robust. However, current methods frequently forgo calibration verification (a stand-alone process evaluating the calibration procedure) and instead use overall model validation (a process comparing calibrated model results to data) to check calibration processes, which may conceal errors in calibration. In this work, we develop a stochastic agent-based disease spread model to act as a testing environment as we test two calibration methods using simulation-based calibration, which is a synthetic data calibration verification method. The first calibration method is a Bayesian inference approach using an empirically-constructed likelihood and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, while the second method is a likelihood-free approach using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Simulation-based calibration suggests that there are challenges with the empirical likelihood calculation used in the first calibration method in this context. These issues are alleviated in the ABC approach. Despite these challenges, we note that the first calibration method performs well in a synthetic data model validation test similar to those common in disease spread modeling literature. We conclude that stand-alone calibration verification using synthetic data may benefit epidemiological researchers in identifying model calibration challenges that may be difficult to identify with other commonly used model validation techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Thermal modeling of three lakes within the continuous permafrost zone in Alaska using the LAKE 2.0 model

Abstract. Lakes in the Arctic are important reservoirs of heat with much lower albedo in summer and greater absorption of solar radiation than surrounding tundra vegetation. In the winter, lakes that do not freeze to their bed have a mean annual bed temperature >0 ∘C in an otherwise frozen landscape. Under climate warming scenarios, we expect Arctic lakes to accelerate thawing of underlying permafrost due to warming water temperatures in the summer and winter. Previous studies of Arctic lakes have focused on ice cover and thickness, the ice decay process, catchment hydrology, lake water balance, and eddy covariance measurements, but little work has been done in the Arctic to model lake heat balance. We applied the LAKE 2.0 model to simulate water temperatures in three Arctic lakes in northern Alaska over several years and tested the sensitivity of the model to several perturbations of input meteorological variables (precipitation, shortwave radiation, and air temperature) and several model parameters (water vertical resolution, sediment vertical resolution, depth of soil column, and temporal resolution). The LAKE 2.0 model is a one-dimensional model that explicitly solves vertical profiles of water state variables on a grid. We used a combination of meteorological data from local and remote weather stations, as well as data derived from remote sensing, to drive the model. We validated modeled water temperatures with data of observed lake water temperatures at several depths over several years for each lake. Our validation of the LAKE 2.0 model is a necessary step toward modeling changes in Arctic lake ice regimes, lake heat balance, and thermal interactions with permafrost. The sensitivity analysis shows us that lake water temperature is not highly sensitive to small changes in air temperature or precipitation, while changes in shortwave radiation and large changes in precipitation produced larger effects. Snow depth and lake ice strongly affect water temperatures during the frozen season, which dominates the annual thermal regime of Arctic lakes. These findings suggest that reductions in lake ice thickness and duration could lead to more heat storage by lakes and enhanced permafrost degradation.

Clark, Jason A. (ORCID:0000000248105261)↗