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It's Only a Phase: Applying the 5 Phases of Clinical Trials to the NSCR Model Improvement Process

NASA limits astronaut radiation exposures to a 3% risk of exposure-induced death from cancer (REID) at the upper 95% confidence level. Since astronauts approach this limit, it is important that the estimate of REID be as accurate as possible. The NASA Space Cancer Risk 2012 (NSCR-2012) model has been the standard for NASA's space radiation protection guidelines since its publication in 2013. The model incorporates elements from U.S. baseline statistics, Japanese atomic bomb survivor research, animal models, cellular studies, and radiation transport to calculate astronaut baseline risk of cancer and REID. The NSCR model is under constant revision to ensure emerging research is incorporated into radiation protection standards. It is important to develop guidelines, however, to determine what new research is appropriate for integration. Certain standards of transparency are necessary in order to assess data quality, statistical quality, and analytical quality. To this effect, all original source code and any raw data used to develop the code are required to confirm there are no errors which significantly change reported outcomes. It is possible to apply a clinical trials approach to select and assess the improvement concepts that will be incorporated into future iterations of NSCR. This poster describes the five phases of clinical trials research, pre-clinical research, and clinical research phases I-IV, explaining how each step can be translated into an appropriate NSCR model selection guideline.

Elgart, S. R.↗

Radiation Effect on Human Tissue

Predicting the occurrence of human cancer following exposure of an epidemiologic population to any agent causing genetic damage is a difficult task. To an approximation, this is because the uncertainty of uniform exposure to the damaging agent, and the uncertainty of uniform processing of that damage within a complex set of biological variables, degrade the confidence of predicting the delayed expression of cancer as a relatively rare event within clinically normal individuals. This situation begs the need for alternate controlled experimental models that are predictive for the development of human cancer following exposures to agents causing genetic damage. Such models historically have not been of substantial proven value. It is more recently encouraging, however, that developments in molecular and cell biology have led to an expanded knowledge of human carcinogenesis, and of molecular markers associated with that process. It is therefore appropriate to consider new laboratory models developed to accomodate that expanded knowledge in order to assess the cancer risks associated with exposures to genotoxic agents. When ionizing radiation of space is the genotoxic agent, then a series of additional considerations for human cancer risk assessment must also be applied. These include the dose of radiation absorbed by tissue at different locations in the body, the quality of the absorbed radiation, the rate at which absorbed dose accumulates in tissue, the way in which absorbed dose is measured and calculated, and the alterations in incident radiation caused by shielding materials. It is clear that human cancer risk assessment for damage caused by ionizing radiation is a multidisciplinary responsibility, and that within this responsibility no single discipline can hold disproportionate sway if a risk assessment model of radiation-induced human cancer is to be developed that has proven value. Biomolecular and cellular markers from the work reported here are considered for use in assessing human cancer risk related to exposure to space radiation. This potential use must be integrated within the specified multidisciplinary context in order to create a new tool of molecular epidemiology that can hopefully then realistically assess this cancer risk.

Richmond, Robert C.↗

ARM FY2021 Radar Plan

The fundamental objective of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) radar facility is to provide high-quality radar observations to the scientific user community with an overarching goal of improving the treatment of clouds and precipitation in climate models. ARM has a complement of 32 scanning and zenith pointing radars, not including the radar wind profilers. This large number of radars and deployment locales require an enormous commitment of effort to keep operational. It has been the experience in ARM that all these radars cannot be always operated at a high level, and priorities need to be developed to properly manage operations every fiscal year. This document provides an overview of the FY20 activities and documents the priorities for FY21.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ARM FY2022 Radar Plan

The fundamental objective of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) radar facility is to provide high-quality radar observations to the scientific user community with an overarching goal of improving the treatment of clouds and precipitation in climate models. ARM has a complement of 32 radars, including scanning and zenith pointing varieties (Table 1). The effort to maintain and operate these radars is significant and requires a large, distributed staffing commitment. However, at available staffing levels, ARM’s experience dictates that it is not feasible to ensure the continuous, high-level operations expected by the ARM user community for all radars at all locations at all times. Therefore, priorities must be established to routinely manage select radar operations every fiscal year.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ARM FY2024 Radar Plan

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s radar capability aims to provide high-quality radar observations to the scientific community, advancing the understanding of clouds and precipitation processes and ultimately improving climate models. ARM operates radars across a spectrum of frequencies with diverse scanning capacities (Table 1) to meet these scientific goals. The maintenance, operations, and management of these distributed radars at sites in various climate regimes require a substantial staffing commitment. However, the existing staffing resources are constrained, making it impractical to sustain the consistent high-quality operations that are expected by the ARM user community. In response, ARM needs to develop priorities for the radar team each year. This report lays out the forthcoming priorities for Financial Year 2024 (FY24), aiming to establish a structure for the ongoing management of radar operations and data processing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Coupled Mars Dust and Water Cycles: Understanding How Clouds Affect the Vertical Distribution and Meridional Transport of Dust and Water.

The dust and water cycles are crucial to the current Martian climate, and they are coupled through cloud formation. Dust strongly impacts the thermal structure of the atmosphere and thus greatly affects atmospheric circulation, while clouds provide radiative forcing and control the hemispheric exchange of water through the modification of the vertical distributions of water and dust. Recent improvements in the quality and sophistication of both observations and climate models allow for a more comprehensive understanding of how the interaction between the dust and water cycles (through cloud formation) affects the dust and water cycles individually. We focus here on the effects of clouds on the vertical distribution of dust and water, and how those vertical distributions control the net meridional transport of water. For this study, we utilize observations of temperature, dust and water ice from the Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) combined with the NASA ARC Mars Global Climate Model (MGCM). We demonstrate that the magnitude and nature of the net meridional transport of water between the northern and southern hemispheres during NH summer is sensitive to the vertical structure of the simulated aphelion cloud belt. We further examine how clouds influence the atmospheric thermal structure and thus the vertical structure of the cloud belt. Our goal is to identify and understand the importance of radiative/dynamic feedbacks due to the physical processes involved with cloud formation and evolution on the current climate of Mars.

Martian climate↗

Laser Disdrometer Quantities (LDQUANTS) and Video Disdrometer Quantities (VDISQUANTS) Value-Added Products Report

Disdrometers are useful instruments that measure the distribution of raindrop sizes (drop size distribution: DSD) and the associated rainfall rates/accumulation as those raindrops fall to the ground. These DSDs are a quantity of interest to members of the modeler and observational communities. However, use of disdrometer data for model evaluation, radar monitoring, or other activities requires careful quality control and processing for key DSD properties of interest (e.g., the number concentration of drops) to ensure appropriate physical (scattering, fall speed) assumptions. The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Laser Disdrometer Quantities and Video Disdrometer Quantities Value-Added Product (LDQUANTS/VDISQUANTS VAP) uses standard methods from Tokay et al. (e.g., 2013, 2014) to filter drops with unrealistic fall speeds. Further, it estimates several microphysical/geophysical quantities of parameterized DSDs (gamma or exponential assumption type fitting methods) as in previous disdrometer studies and ARM long-term efforts (e.g., Testud et al. 2001, Giangrande et al. 2014, Thompson et al. 2015). Disdrometers are also beneficial for cross-checks with other instrumentation, including rain gauges and radars. To support research interests and related radar monitoring activities, this product calculates radar equivalent quantities, including dual polarization radar quantities (e.g., Z, Differential Reflectivity ZDR, etc.), using T-Matrix scattering and additional wavelength, temperature, and drop shape assumptions (e.g., Thurai et al. 2007). All of these efforts allow disdrometer data sets to become more useful and easily handled by modeling and observational studies, or routine instrumentation checks.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Dynamically Downscaled Hourly Future Weather Data with 12-km Resolution Covering Most of North America

This is an hourly future weather dataset for energy modeling applications. The dataset is primarily based on the output of a regional climate model (RCM), i.e., the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.3.1. The WRF simulations are driven by the output of a general circulation model (GCM), i.e., the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). This dataset is in the EPW format, which can be read or translated by more than 25 building energy modeling programs (e.g., EnergyPlus, ESP-r, and IESVE), energy system modeling programs (e.g., System Advisor Model (SAM)), indoor air quality analysis programs (e.g., CONTAM), and hygrothermal analysis programs (e.g., WUFI). It contains 13 weather variables, which are the Dry-Bulb Temperature, Dew Point Temperature, Relative Humidity, Atmospheric Pressure, Horizontal Infrared Radiation Intensity from Sky, Global Horizontal Irradiation, Direct Normal Irradiation, Diffuse Horizontal Irradiation, Wind Speed, Wind Direction, Sky Cover, Albedo, and Liquid Precipitation Depth. The weather data is created for two emissions scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and spans two 10-year time slices in the future: 2045 - 2054 and 2085 - 2094. It offers a spatial resolution of 12 km by 12 km with extensive coverage across most of North America. Due to the enormous size of the entire dataset, in the first stage of its distribution, we provide 20 years of future weather data for the centroid of each Public Use Microdata Area (PUMA), excluding Hawaii. PUMAs are non-overlapping, statistical geographic areas that partition each state or equivalent entity into geographic areas containing no fewer than 100,000 people each. The 2,378 PUMAs as a whole cover the entirety of the U.S. The weather data can be utilized alongside the large-scale energy analysis tools, ResStock and ComStock, developed by National Renewable Energy Laboratory, whose smallest resolution is at the PUMA scale. The data for RCP4.5 is still being processed and will be published soon.

Array↗

Dataset Repository for Investigating Suicide Risk Using Social and Environmental Determinants of Health

Suicide is frequently modeled as a function of genetics and environment, where the latter refers to factors other than direct biological consequences, such as air quality, financial level, social connectivity, transportation and food access, and homelessness status. According to the World Health Organization, clean air, a stable climate, adequate water, sanitation and hygiene, safe chemical use, radiation protection, healthy and safe workplaces, sound agricultural practices, health-supportive cities and built environments, and a preserved natural environment are all prerequisites for good health. Understanding the relationships between these determinants and mental health outcomes requires standardized data that can be included in healthcare programs and health outcome models. There is a wealth of publicly available data on social and environmental factors provided by various US organizations that can benefit the design of health care systems and public health interventions, as well as improve our comprehension of factors that impact health. Such information would not only help improve the understanding of individual and community risk but also identify new risk factors that have not previously been therapeutically targeted, especially in terms of their impact on mental health. However, curating and standardizing such datasets is challenging because they are often recorded at numerous geographical and temporal resolutions and with varying spatial and temporal granularities. To address this challenge, we launched an endeavor in conjunction with the Veterans Health Administration to collect publicly available socioeconomic and environmental determinants of health statistics in the US. In this manuscript, we describe a social and environmental determinants of health (SEDH) datasets repository, data curation documentation, and a pipeline framework for data generation; This effort started in 2020, when we began constructing a scalable pipeline to automate the download, extraction, preparation, analysis, and production of datasets. These datasets have been made available to the VHA and may be shared upon agreement with collaborating organizations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Estimation of Effective Doses for Radiation Cancer Risks on ISS, Lunar, and Mars Missions with Space Radiation Measurement

Radiation protection practices define the effective dose as a weighted sum of equivalent dose over major sites for radiation cancer risks. Since a crew personnel dosimeter does not make direct measurement of effective dose, it has been estimated with skin-dose measurements and radiation transport codes for ISS and STS missions. The Phantom Torso Experiment (PTE) of NASA s Operational Radiation Protection Program has provided the actual flight measurements of active and passive dosimeters which were placed throughout the phantom on STS-91 mission for 10 days and on ISS Increment 2 mission. For the PTE, the variation in organ doses, which is resulted by the absorption and the changes in radiation quality with tissue shielding, was considered by measuring doses at many tissue sites and at several critical body organs including brain, colon, heart, stomach, thyroid, and skins. These measurements have been compared with the organ dose calculations obtained from the transport models. Active TEPC measurements of lineal energy spectra at the surface of the PTE also provided the direct comparison of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) or trapped proton dose and dose equivalent. It is shown that orienting the phantom body as actual in ISS is needed for the direct comparison of the transport models to the ISS data. One of the most important observations for organ dose equivalent of effective dose estimates on ISS is the fractional contribution from trapped protons and GCR. We show that for most organs over 80% is from GCR. The improved estimation of effective doses for radiation cancer risks will be made with the resultant tissue weighting factors and the modified codes.

Kim, M.Y.↗

The Evolution of the Stratopause during the 2006 Major Warming: Satellite Data and Assimilated Meteorological Analyses

Microwave Limb Sounder and Sounding of the Atmosphere with Broadband Emission Radiometry data provide the first opportunity to characterize the four-dimensional stratopause evolution throughout the life-cycle of a major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW). The polar stratopause, usually higher than that at midlatitudes, dropped by 30 km and warmed during development of a major "wave 1" SSW in January 2006, with accompanying mesospheric cooling. When the polar vortex broke down, the stratopause cooled and became ill-defined, with a nearly isothermal stratosphere. After the polar vortex started to recover in the upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere (USLM), a cool stratopause reformed above 75 km, then dropped and warmed; both the mesosphere above and the stratosphere below cooled at this time. The polar stratopause remained separated from that at midlatitudes across the core of the polar night jet. In the early stages of the SSW, the strongly tilted (westward with increasing altitude) polar vortex extended into the mesosphere, and enclosed a secondary temperature maximum extending westward and slightly equatorward from the highest altitude part of the polar stratopause over the cool stratopause near the vortex edge. The temperature evolution in the USLM resulted in strongly enhanced radiative cooling in the mesosphere during the recovery from the SSW, but significantly reduced radiative cooling in the upper stratosphere. Assimilated meteorological analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5.0.1 (GEOS-5), which are not constrained by data at polar stratopause altitudes and have model tops near 80 km, could not capture the secondary temperature maximum or the high stratopause after the SSW; they also misrepresent polar temperature structure during and after the stratopause breakdown, leading to large biases in their radiative heating rates. ECMWF analyses represent the stratospheric temperature structure more accurately, suggesting a better representation of vertical motion; GEOS-5 analyses more faithfully describe stratopause level wind and wave amplitudes. The high-quality satellite temperature data used here provide the first daily, global, multiannual data sets suitable for assessing and, eventually, improving representation of the USLM in models and assimilation systems.

Manney, Gloria L.↗

The nematode C. elegans - A model animal system for the detection of genetic and developmental lesions

The effects of ionizing and nonionizing radiation effects on cell reproduction, differentiation, and mutation in vivo are studied using the nematode C. elegans. The relationships between fluence/dose and response and quality factor and linear energy transfer are analyzed. The data reveal that there is a complex repair pathway in the nematode and that mutants can be used to direct the sensitivity of the system to specific mutagens/radiation types.

Nelson, Gregory A.↗

Solar modulation and nuclear fragmentation effects in galactic cosmic ray transport through shielding

Crews of manned interplanetary missions may accumulate significant radiation exposures from the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) environment in space. Estimates of how these dose levels are affected by the assumed temporal and spatial variations in the composition of the GCR environment, and by the effects of the spacecraft and body self-shielding on the transported fields are presented. In this work, the physical processes through which shielding alters the transported radiation fields are described. We then present estimates of the effects on model calculations of (1) nuclear fragmentation model uncertainties, (2) solar modulation, (3) variations between solar cycles, and (4) proposed changes to the quality factors which relate dose equivalent to absorbed dose.

Townsend, L. W.↗

Sensitivity of Mesoscale Modeling of Smoke Direct Radiative Effect to the Emission Inventory: a Case Study in Northern Sub-Saharan African Region

An ensemble approach is used to examine the sensitivity of smoke loading and smoke direct radiative effect in the atmosphere to uncertainties in smoke emission estimates. Seven different fire emission inventories are applied independently to WRF-Chem model (v3.5) with the same model configuration (excluding dust and other emission sources) over the northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) biomass-burning region. Results for November and February 2010 are analyzed, respectively representing the start and end of the biomass burning season in the study region. For February 2010, estimates of total smoke emission vary by a factor of 12, but only differences by factors of 7 or less are found in the simulated regional (15degW-42degE, 13degS-17degN) and monthly averages of column PM(sub 2.5) loading, surface PM(sub 2.5) concentration, aerosol optical depth (AOD), smoke radiative forcing at the top-of-atmosphere and at the surface, and air temperature at 2 m and at 700 hPa. The smaller differences in these simulated variables may reflect the atmospheric diffusion and deposition effects to dampen the large difference in smoke emissions that are highly concentrated in areas much smaller than the regional domain of the study. Indeed, at the local scale, large differences (up to a factor of 33) persist in simulated smoke-related variables and radiative effects including semi-direct effect. Similar results are also found for November 2010, despite differences in meteorology and fire activity. Hence, biomass burning emission uncertainties have a large influence on the reliability of model simulations of atmospheric aerosol loading, transport, and radiative impacts, and this influence is largest at local and hourly-to-daily scales. Accurate quantification of smoke effects on regional climate and air quality requires further reduction of emission uncertainties, particularly for regions of high fire concentrations such as NSSA.

Sahel and sub-Saharan African region↗

Bumper: A Tool for Analyzing Spacecraft Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Risk

“Bumper” is NASA’s computer program for analyzing spacecraft micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) risk. Bumper was developed in the late-1980s and has been continuously used and maintained since. The user base has grown from a few government entities to now include numerous commercial entities as well. The NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) Team is responsible for all aspects of the Bumper software. Bumper has been used to characterize MMOD risk on hundreds of spacecraft. All of the International Space Station (ISS) modules, visiting vehicles and numerous external components and systems have been analyzed. Bumper was used to analyze each of the Space Shuttle missions since STS-50. The Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) MMOD shielding is being developed using Bumper as well. Bumper has also been used on numerous telescopes (Hubble, James Webb, and Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescopes), scientific probes (Stardust, New Horizons, Parker Solar Probe), and Earth observation satellites (Landsat, Joint Polar Satellite System). Bumper is also being used to analyze the micrometeoroid risk and support design of the Deep Space Gateway (DSG) and Mars Sample Return (MSR) missions. The HVIT Bumper Configuration Control Board (CCB) ensures that all changes to the code are approved, reviewed, and documented. Most of the changes are made to add new MMOD damage “ballistic limit equations” (BLEs). BLEs are typically added in response to completion of a hypervelocity impact (HVI) test series and development of an associated BLE. Other less frequent changes include updates of the debris or meteoroid environment models, feature enhancements, and feature retirement. Some BLEs are commercially sensitive and/or proprietary, so the CCB also manages code user-version control and software distribution. The current version – “Bumper 3” – is a FORTRAN executable that utilizes a 64-bit architecture. Bumper 3 has numerous features that make it a powerful tool for analyzing spacecraft MMOD risk. Bumper uses the latest orbital debris and micrometeoroid environment models. Bumper also easily processes large spacecraft geometry models, recognizes hidden surfaces, permits BLE assignment by name or number, and conducts quality checks of the spacecraft geometry model. Bumper 3 can also be used to estimate the effects of particle penetration through thin, high-standoff distance hardware components such as solar arrays and radiators. This is done using a special HVIT-developed technique know as the “3-Part Analysis.” The paper introduces the Bumper 3 MMOD risk analysis code and provides an example MMOD risk assessment showing Bumper’s role in the overall MMOD protection design process.

Lear, Dana M.↗

Evaluation of WRF-Solar Cloud Forecast Using the NSRDB: Preprint

Cloud forecast is a crucial component in predicting solar irradiance from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Assessing cloud properties from the NWP models requires significant work due to the need for high-quality data, spatial analysis covering model extent, and detailed analysis of model performance for different types of clouds. This study presents an evaluation of the WRF-Solar cloud forecast using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). We propose an evaluation framework applied to a single model prediction as well as ensemble-based forecasts. Various cloud detection metrics are calculated when comparing with the satellite-derived dataset. The mismatched clouds from the WRF-Solar model are quantified using nine cloud types classified by cloud top height and cloud optical depth. The results based on the WRF-Solar forecasts covering the entire U.S. for the full year of 2018 shows mismatched cloud frequency in the range of 8% - 46% for thick and high-level (deep convective) to thin and low-level (cumulus) clouds.

cloud mask forecast↗

A modeling analysis program for the JPL table mountain Io sodium cloud

A data quality review for the entire set of the 1981 Region B/C images has been completed and is presented. The review indicates that almost all images are of sufficient quality to be valuable in our analysis of this data set. Five data-correlation studies for the same data set have also been completed and are useful in classifying and studying the sodium cloud morphology and its interactions with solar radiation pressure and the plasma torus. Additional progress in developing new image processing techniques and in improving the Io sodium cloud model is also discussed.

Smyth, W. H.↗

An Update on the Hydrological Land Surface Data and Services at NASA GES DISC

"The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) is one of twelve NASA Earth Observing System data centers that document, process, archive and distribute data from Earth science missions and related projects. The GES DISC hosts many hydrological land surface data products including North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), and assimilated-Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). The Land Surface Model (LSM) products contain model output, including heat fluxes, rain, snow, soil temperature, soil moisture and runoff; and observational forcing data, including surface pressure, temperature, precipitation, downward shortwave and longwave radiation, humidity, and wind. The temporal resolution of the hydrology data at the GES DISC ranges from hourly to monthly and the spatial resolution 0.1 degree to 1.0 degree. The variability of Earth’s water and energy cycles can be characterized with these spatially and temporally consistent, and quality controlled hydrological land surface data. These data could support ongoing modeling activities, and help improve our understanding of land-surface-atmosphere interactions and their impact on climate. Over the years, new data is added, and older data is reprocessed and updated. This presentation provides a summary table of the hydrological data and discusses recent updates to the data and data services at the GES DISC. New data products include (1) GRACE Global Version 3.0 drought indicators and (2) FLDAS monthly global and Central Asia daily data. Reprocessed and updated products include (1) NLDAS Version 2.0 and (2) GRACE United States Version 4.0 drought indicators. Lastly, this presentation will discuss the opportunities for accessing some of our hydrology data from the cloud. As the hydrology land surface data is moved to the cloud, users can expect faster service for longer time series, notably the hydrology data rods time series service."

Ashley Heath↗