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NASA NTRS2020

A Digital Twin Feasibility Study (Part II):Non-Deterministic Predictions of Fatigue Life Using In-Situ Diagnostics and Prognostics

The Digital Twin (DT) concept has the potential to revolutionize the way systems and their components are designed, managed, maintained, and operated across a vast number of fields from engineering to healthcare. The focus of this work is the implementation of DT for the health management of fatigue critical structures. This paper is the second part of a two-part series. The first of the series demonstrated the use of multi-scale, initiation-to-failure crack growth modeling to form non-deterministic predictions of fatigue life. In this second part, a general method for reducing uncertainty in fatigue life predictions is presented that couples in-situ diagnostics and prognostics in a probabilistic framework. Monte Carlo methods and high-fidelity finite element models are used to (i) generate probabilistic estimates of crack state throughout the life of the same geometrically complex test specimen and (ii) predict fatigue life with decreasing uncertainty as more of these diagnoses are obtained. The ability to predict accurately and in the presence of uncertainty is demonstrated, suggesting that the proposed DT method is feasible for fatigue life prognosis and should be pursued further with a focus on increasing application realism.

Patrick E Leser↗

NASA NTRS1988

Hypersonic shock structure with Burnett terms in the viscous stress and heat flux

The continuum Navier-Stokes and Burnett equations are solved for one-dimensional shock structure in various monatomic gases. A new numerical method is employed which utilizes the complete time-dependent continuum equations and obtains the steady-state shock structure by allowing the system to relax from arbitrary initial conditions. Included is discussion of numerical difficulties encountered when solving the Burnett equations. Continuum solutions are compared to those obtained utilizing the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo method. Shock solutions are obtained for a hard sphere gas and for argon from Mach 1.3 to Mach 50. Solutions for a Maxwellian gas are obtained from Mach 1.3 to Mach 3.8. It is shown that the Burnett equations yield shock structure solutions in much closer agreement to both Monte Carlo and experimental results than do the Navier-Stokes equations. Shock density thickness, density asymmetry, and density-temperature separation are all more accurately predicted by the Burnett equations than by the Navier-Stokes equations.

Chapman, Dean R.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Numerical phase space optics methods and applications to the analysis of fiber coupling efficiency in atmospheric turbulence

A fundamental requirement of free-space optical communication is the ability to efficiently couple atmospherically distorted light from a telescope to a detector. A numerical method is presented for modeling fiber-based receiver performance in atmospheric conditions based on phase space optics which does not rely on Monte Carlo methods. This method is employed to analyze the waveguide insertion loss and optimal coupling geometry in atmospheric conditions for step-index fibers, graded-index fibers, and photonic lanterns with and without tilt compensation and central obscurations in the telescope.

free-space optical communication↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Numerical phase space optics methods and applications to the analysis of fiber coupling efficiency in atmospheric turbulence

free-space optical communication↗

NASA NTRS2009

Physical Principle for Generation of Randomness

A physical principle (more precisely, a principle that incorporates mathematical models used in physics) has been conceived as the basis of a method of generating randomness in Monte Carlo simulations. The principle eliminates the need for conventional random-number generators. The Monte Carlo simulation method is among the most powerful computational methods for solving high-dimensional problems in physics, chemistry, economics, and information processing. The Monte Carlo simulation method is especially effective for solving problems in which computational complexity increases exponentially with dimensionality. The main advantage of the Monte Carlo simulation method over other methods is that the demand on computational resources becomes independent of dimensionality. As augmented by the present principle, the Monte Carlo simulation method becomes an even more powerful computational method that is especially useful for solving problems associated with dynamics of fluids, planning, scheduling, and combinatorial optimization. The present principle is based on coupling of dynamical equations with the corresponding Liouville equation. The randomness is generated by non-Lipschitz instability of dynamics triggered and controlled by feedback from the Liouville equation. (In non-Lipschitz dynamics, the derivatives of solutions of the dynamical equations are not required to be bounded.)

Zak, Michail↗

NASA NTRS1989

Resonance line transfer calculations by doubling thin layers. I - Comparison with other techniques. II - The use of the R-parallel redistribution function

A versatile and efficient technique for the solution of the resonance line scattering problem with frequency redistribution in planetary atmospheres is introduced. Similar to the doubling approach commonly used in monochromatic scattering problems, the technique has been extended to include the frequency dependence of the radiation field. Methods for solving problems with external or internal sources and coupled spectral lines are presented, along with comparison of some sample calculations with results from Monte Carlo and Feautrier techniques. The doubling technique has also been applied to the solution of resonance line scattering problems where the R-parallel redistribution function is appropriate, both neglecting and including polarization as developed by Yelle and Wallace (1989). With the constraint that the atmosphere is illuminated from the zenith, the only difficulty of consequence is that of performing precise frequency integrations over the line profiles. With that problem solved, it is no longer necessary to use the Monte Carlo method to solve this class of problem.

Yelle, Roger V.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Estimated Probability of a Cervical Spine Injury During an ISS Mission

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) utilizes historical data, cohort data, and external simulations as input factors to provide estimates of crew health, resource utilization and mission outcomes. The Cervical Spine Injury Module (CSIM) is an external simulation designed to provide the IMM with parameter estimates for 1) a probability distribution function (PDF) of the incidence rate, 2) the mean incidence rate, and 3) the standard deviation associated with the mean resulting from injury/trauma of the neck. Methods: An injury mechanism based on an idealized low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax of an ISS crewmember was used as the simulated mission environment. As a result of this impact, the cervical spine is inertially loaded from the mass of the head producing an extension-flexion motion deforming the soft tissues of the neck. A multibody biomechanical model was developed to estimate the kinematic and dynamic response of the head-neck system from a prescribed acceleration profile. Logistic regression was performed on a dataset containing AIS1 soft tissue neck injuries from rear-end automobile collisions with published Neck Injury Criterion values producing an injury transfer function (ITF). An injury event scenario (IES) was constructed such that crew 1 is moving through a primary or standard translation path transferring large volume equipment impacting stationary crew 2. The incidence rate for this IES was estimated from in-flight data and used to calculate the probability of occurrence. The uncertainty in the model input factors were estimated from representative datasets and expressed in terms of probability distributions. A Monte Carlo Method utilizing simple random sampling was employed to propagate both aleatory and epistemic uncertain factors. Scatterplots and partial correlation coefficients (PCC) were generated to determine input factor sensitivity. CSIM was developed in the SimMechanics/Simulink environment with a Monte Carlo wrapper (MATLAB) used to integrate the components of the module. Results: The probability of generating an AIS1 soft tissue neck injury from the extension/flexion motion induced by a low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax was fitted with a lognormal PDF with mean 0.26409, standard deviation 0.11353, standard error of mean 0.00114, and 95% confidence interval [0.26186, 0.26631]. Combining the probability of an AIS1 injury with the probability of IES occurrence was fitted with a Johnson SI PDF with mean 0.02772, standard deviation 0.02012, standard error of mean 0.00020, and 95% confidence interval [0.02733, 0.02812]. The input factor sensitivity analysis in descending order was IES incidence rate, ITF regression coefficient 1, impactor initial velocity, ITF regression coefficient 2, and all others (equipment mass, crew 1 body mass, crew 2 body mass) insignificant. Verification and Validation (V&V): The IMM V&V, based upon NASA STD 7009, was implemented which included an assessment of the data sets used to build CSIM. The documentation maintained includes source code comments and a technical report. The software code and documentation is under Subversion configuration management. Kinematic validation was performed by comparing the biomechanical model output to established corridors.

Brooker, John E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Denoising Autoencoder for Reconstructing Sensor Observation Data and Predicting Evapotranspiration: Noisy and Missing Values Repair and Uncertainty Quantification

Abstract Machine learning (ML) methods applied in scientific research often deal with interrelated features in high‐dimensional data. Reducing data noise and redundancy is needed to increase prediction accuracy and efficiency especially when dealing with data from field sensors. We explored an unsupervised learning method, the denoising autoencoder (DAE), to extract the underlying data structure from noisy raw data in the context of predicting hydrologic quantities from multiple field sensors. These sensors have intrinsic instrumental noise and occasional malfunctions that cause missing values. Our DAE neural network reconstructed meteorological sensor data containing noise and missing values to predict evapotranspiration in a mountainous watershed. The DAE reconstructed the sensor variables with a mean coefficient of determination value of 0.77 across 15 dimensions representing individual sensors. It reduced variance and bias uncertainties compared to a classical autoencoder model. The reconstruction quality varied across dimensions depending on their cross‐correlation and alignment with the underlying data structure. Uncertainties arising from the model structure were overall higher than those resulting from data corruption. We attached the DAE structure to a downstream ET‐prediction neural network in three formats and achieved reasonably accurate ET predictions . The use of the DAE notably reduced variance uncertainty in ET prediction. However, excessive variance reduction may be accompanied by an increase in bias due to the intrinsic bias‐variance tradeoff. Our method of evaluating and reducing uncertainties in aggregated data from different sources can be used to improve predictive models, process understanding, and uncertainty quantification for better water resource management. Plain Language Summary We present a machine learning method, namely the denoising autoencoder, which reduces the effects of data noise and missing values typically present in scientific data sets collected through sensor measurements. This method selects the most relevant information from noisy raw data collected by the instruments and fills in missing values. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we applied it to predict evapotranspiration, a hydrologic variable that represents the water moved from the land surface to the atmosphere through a combination of evaporation and plant water use (transpiration). We also used a random sampling technique (the Monte Carlo method) to compare the uncertainty in the predictions when using the raw and noisy data versus the reconstructed data. The denoising process produced more accurate predictions of evapotranspiration with less uncertainty. Improved predictions of evapotranspiration can lead to a better understanding and accounting of water budgets. This ML approach is broadly suitable for a wide variety of applications that involve noisy sensor data with missing values. Key Points We used a denoising autoencoder (DAE) neural network to reduce noise in meteorological and soil sensor observations by on average We used Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the bias and variance of all model outputs, including uncertainty sources from data and the model We attached the DAE component to a downstream neural network to predict ET with the variance reduced by , compared to that without the DAE

denoising autoencoder↗

NASA NTRS1971

Computational investigations of low-discrepancy point sets

The quasi-Monte Carlo method of integration offers an attractive solution to the problem of evaluating integrals in a large number of dimensions; however, the associated error bounds are difficult to obtain theoretically. Since these bounds are associated with the L2 discrepancy of the set of points used in the integration. Numerical calculations of the L2 discrepancy for several types of quasi-Monte Carlo formulae are presented.

Warnock, T. T.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Investigation of radiative interaction in laminar flows using Monte Carlo simulation

The Monte Carlo method (MCM) is employed to study the radiative interactions in fully developed laminar flow between two parallel plates. Taking advantage of the characteristics of easy mathematical treatment of the MCM, a general numerical procedure is developed for nongray radiative interaction. The nongray model is based on the statistical narrow band model with an exponential-tailed inverse intensity distribution. To validate the Monte Carlo simulation for nongray radiation problems, the results of radiative dissipation from the MCM are compared with two available solutions for a given temperature profile between two plates. After this validation, the MCM is employed to solve the present physical problem and results for the bulk temperature are compared with available solutions. In general, good agreement is noted and reasons for some discrepancies in certain ranges of parameters are explained.

Liu, Jiwen↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty-quantification-enabled inversion of nuclear responses

Nuclear quantum many-body methods rely on integral transform techniques to infer properties of electroweak response functions from ground-state expectation values. Retrieving the energy dependence of these responses is highly nontrivial, especially for quantum Monte Carlo methods, as it requires inverting the Laplace transform, a notoriously ill-posed problem. Here, in this work, we propose an artificial neural network architecture suitable for accurate response function reconstruction with precise estimation of the uncertainty of the inversion. We demonstrate the capabilities of this new architecture benchmarking it against maximum entropy and previously developed neural network methods designed for a similar task, paying particular attention to its robustness noise in the Euclidean

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2008

Ares I Flight Control System Overview

This paper describes the control challenges posed by the Ares I vehicle, the flight control system design and performance analyses used to test and verify the design. The major challenges in developing the control system are structural dynamics, dynamic effects from the powerful first stage booster, aerodynamics, first stage separation and large uncertainties in the dynamic models for all these. Classical control techniques were employed using innovative methods for structural mode filter design and an anti-drift feature to compensate for translational and rotational disturbances. This design was coded into an integrated vehicle flight simulation and tested by Monte Carlo methods. The product of this effort is a linear, robust controller design that is easy to implement, verify and test.

Hall, Charles↗

NASA NTRS2008

Effect of the Inhomogeneity of Ice Crystals on Retrieving Ice Cloud Optical Thickness and Effective Particle Size

Spherical or spheroidal air bubbles are generally trapped in the formation of rapidly growing ice crystals. In this study the single-scattering properties of inhomogeneous ice crystals containing air bubbles are investigated. Specifically, a computational model based on an improved geometric-optics method (IGOM) has been developed to simulate the scattering of light by randomly oriented hexagonal ice crystals containing spherical or spheroidal air bubbles. A combination of the ray-tracing technique and the Monte Carlo method is used. The effect of the air bubbles within ice crystals is to smooth the phase functions, diminish the 22deg and 46deg halo peaks, and substantially reduce the backscatter relative to bubble-free particles. These features vary with the number, sizes, locations and shapes of the air bubbles within ice crystals. Moreover, the asymmetry factors of inhomogeneous ice crystals decrease as the volume of air bubbles increases. Cloud reflectance lookup tables were generated at wavelengths 0.65 m and 2.13 m with different air-bubble conditions to examine the impact of the bubbles on retrieving ice cloud optical thickness and effective particle size. The reflectances simulated for inhomogeneous ice crystals are slightly larger than those computed for homogenous ice crystals at a wavelength of 0.65 microns. Thus, the retrieved cloud optical thicknesses are reduced by employing inhomogeneous ice cloud models. At a wavelength of 2.13 microns, including air bubbles in ice cloud models may also increase the reflectance. This effect implies that the retrieved effective particle sizes for inhomogeneous ice crystals are larger than those retrieved for homogeneous ice crystals, particularly, in the case of large air bubbles.

Xie, Yu↗

NASA NTRS1985

Advanced reliability methods for structural evaluation

Fast probability integration (FPI) methods, which can yield approximate solutions to such general structural reliability problems as the computation of the probabilities of complicated functions of random variables, are known to require one-tenth the computer time of Monte Carlo methods for a probability level of 0.001; lower probabilities yield even more dramatic differences. A strategy is presented in which a computer routine is run k times with selected perturbed values of the variables to obtain k solutions for a response variable Y. An approximating polynomial is fit to the k 'data' sets, and FPI methods are employed for this explicit form.

Wirsching, P. H.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty quantification of mass models using ensemble Bayesian model averaging

Developments in the description of the masses of atomic nuclei have led to various nuclear mass models that provide predictions for masses across the whole chart of nuclides. These mass models play an important role in understanding the synthesis of heavy elements in the rapid neutron capture ( r ) process. However, it is still a challenging task to estimate the size of uncertainty associated with the predictions of each mass model. In this work, a method called ensemble Bayesian model averaging (EBMA) is introduced to quantify the uncertainty of one-neutron separation energies (S 1 n ) which are directly relevant in the calculations of r -process observables. Here, this Bayesian method provides a natural way to perform model averaging, selection, and uncertainty quantification, by combining the mass models as a mixture of normal distributions whose parameters are optimized against the experimental data, employing the Markov chain Monte Carlo method using the no-u-turn sampler. The EBMA model optimized with all the experimental S 1 n from the AME2003 nuclides are shown to provide reliable uncertainty estimates when tested with the new data in the AME2020.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Neural simulation-based inference of the neutron star equation of state directly from telescope spectra

Neutron stars provide a unique opportunity to study strongly interacting matter under extreme density conditions. The intricacies of matter inside neutron stars and their equation of state are not directly visible, but determine bulk properties, such as mass and radius, which affect the star's thermal X-ray emissions. However, the telescope spectra of these emissions are also affected by the stellar distance, hydrogen column, and effective surface temperature, which are not always well-constrained. Uncertainties on these nuisance parameters must be accounted for when making a robust estimation of the equation of state. In this study, we develop a novel methodology that, for the first time, can infer the full posterior distribution of both the equation of state and nuisance parameters directly from telescope observations. This method relies on the use of neural likelihood estimation, in which normalizing flows use samples of simulated telescope data to learn the likelihood of the neutron star spectra as a function of these parameters, coupled with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods to efficiently sample from the corresponding posterior distribution. Our approach surpasses the accuracy of previous methods, improves the interpretability of the results by providing access to the full posterior distribution, and naturally scales to a growing number of neutron star observations expected in the coming years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

A continuous symmetry breaking measure for finite clusters using Jensen-Shannon divergence

A quantitative measure of symmetry breaking is introduced that allows the quantification of which symmetries are most strongly broken due to the introduction of some kind of defect in a perfect structure. The method uses a statistical approach based on the Jensen-Shannon divergence. The measure is calculated by comparing the transformed atomic density function with its original. Software code is presented that carries the calculations out numerically using Monte Carlo methods. The behavior of this symmetry breaking measure is tested for various cases including finite size crystallites (where the surfaces break the crystallographic symmetry), atomic displacements from high symmetry positions, and collective motions of atoms due to rotations of rigid octahedra. Finally, the approach provides a powerful tool for assessing local symmetry breaking and offers new insights that can help researchers understand how different structural distortions affect different symmetry operations.

atomic & molecular structure↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Monocular Horizon Navigation

The Artemis program advances towards operations on the lunar surface, where precise surface localization is a driving need for safety and science. Using the observable horizon as an image landmark allows for estimating the photographer’s position. This work analyzes the application of Perspective-n-Point (PnP) algorithms to this lunar localization problem. Batch simulations using lunar topography display the accuracy and drawbacks of these methods. Monte Carlo techniques show the pipeline’s solutions as measurements provided to a navigation filter. When filtered, these solutions have position errors of 50 meters or better, which is similar to or better than the performance of other methods of surface localization.

optical navigation↗