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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13

Misconceptions of Electric Propulsion Aircraft and Their Emergent Aviation Markets

Over the past several years there have been aircraft conceptual design and system studies that have reached conflicting conclusions relating to the feasibility of full and hybrid electric aircraft. Some studies and propulsion discipline experts have claimed that battery technologies will need to improve by 10 to 20 times before electric aircraft can effectively compete with reciprocating or turbine engines. However, such studies have approached comparative assessments without understanding the compelling differences that electric propulsion offers, how these technologies will fundamentally alter the way propulsion integration is approached, or how these new technologies can not only compete but far exceed existing propulsion solutions in many ways at battery specific energy densities of only 400 watt hours per kilogram. Electric propulsion characteristics offer the opportunity to achieve 4 to 8 time improvements in energy costs with dramatically lower total operating costs, while dramatically improving efficiency, community noise, propulsion system reliability and safety through redundancy, as well as life cycle Green House Gas emissions. Integration of electric propulsion will involve far greater degrees of distribution than existing propulsion solutions due to their compact and scale-free nature to achieve multi-disciplinary coupling and synergistic integration with the aerodynamics, highlift system, acoustics, vehicle control, balance, and aeroelasticity. Appropriate metrics of comparison and differences in analysis/design tools are discussed while comparing electric propulsion to other disruptive technologies. For several initial applications, battery energy density is already sufficient for competitive products, and for many additional markets energy densities will likely be adequate within the next 7 years for vibrant introduction. Market evolution and early adopter markets are discussed, along with the investment areas that will fill technology gaps and create opportunities for the effective, near-term electric aircraft products. Without understanding both the context of how electric propulsion will integrate into the vehicle system, and evolve into the market place it is likely that electric propulsion will continue to be misunderstood.

Moore, Mark D.↗

Treadmill Exercise with Increased Body Loading Enhances Post Flight Functional Performance

The goals of the Functional Task Test (FTT) study were to determine the effects of space flight on functional tests that are representative of high priority exploration mission tasks and to identify the key underlying physiological factors that contribute to decrements in performance. Ultimately this information will be used to assess performance risks and inform the design of countermeasures for exploration class missions. We have previously shown that for Shuttle, ISS and bed rest subjects functional tasks requiring a greater demand for dynamic control of postural equilibrium (i.e. fall recovery, seat egress/obstacle avoidance during walking, object translation, jump down) showed the greatest decrement in performance. Functional tests with reduced requirements for postural stability (i.e. hatch opening, ladder climb, manual manipulation of objects and tool use) showed little reduction in performance. These changes in functional performance were paralleled by similar decrements in sensorimotor tests designed to specifically assess postural equilibrium and dynamic gait control. The bed rest analog allows us to investigate the impact of axial body unloading in isolation on both functional tasks and on the underlying physiological factors that lead to decrements in performance and then compare them with the results obtained in our space flight study. These results indicate that body support unloading experienced during space flight plays a central role in postflight alteration of functional task performance. Given the importance of body-support loading we set out to determine if there is a relationship between the load experienced during inflight treadmill exercise (produced by a harness and bungee system) and postflight functional performance. ISS crewmembers (n=13) were tested using the FTT protocol before and after 6 months in space. Crewmembers were tested three times before flight, and on 1, 6, and 30 days after landing. To determine how differences in body-support loading experienced during inflight treadmill exercise impacts postflight functional performance, the loading history for each subject during inflight treadmill (T2) exercise was correlated with postflight measures of performance. Crewmembers who walked on the treadmill with higher pull-down loads had less decrement in postflight postural stability and dynamic locomotor control than those subjects who exercised with lighter loads. These data point to the importance of providing significant body loading during inflight treadmill exercise. This and the addition of specific balance training may further mitigate decrements in critical mission tasks that require dynamic postural stability and mobility. Inflight treadmill exercise provides a multi-disciplinary platform to provide sensorimotor, aerobic and bone mechanical stimuli benefits. Forward work will focus on the development of an inflight training system that will integrate aerobic, resistive and balance training modalities into a single interdisciplinary countermeasure system for exploration class missions.

Bloomberg, J. J.↗

Phased Array-Fed Reflector (PAFR) Antenna Architectures for Space-Based Sensors

Communication link and target ranges for satellite communications (SATCOM) and space-based sensors (e.g. radars) vary from approximately 1000 km (for LEO satellites) to 35,800 km (for GEO satellites). At these long ranges, large antenna gains are required and legacy payloads have usually employed large reflectors with single beams that are either fixed or mechanically steered. For many applications, there are inherent limitations that are associated with the use of these legacy antennas/payloads. Hybrid antenna designs using Phased Array Fed Reflectors (PAFRs) provide a compromise between reflectors and Direct Radiating phased Arrays (DRAs). PAFRs provide many of the performance benefits of DRAs while utilizing much smaller, lower cost (feed) arrays. The primary limitation associated with hybrid PAFR architectures is electronic scan range; approximately +/-5 to +/- 10 degrees is typical, but this range depends on many factors. For LEO applications, the earth FOV is approximately +/-55 degrees which is well beyond the range of electronic scanning for PAFRs. However, for some LEO missions, limited scanning is sufficient or the CONOPS and space vehicle designs can be developed to incorporate a combination mechanical slewing and electronic scanning. In this paper, we review, compare and contrast various PAFR architectures with a focus on their general applicability to space missions. We compare the RF performance of various PAFR architectures and describe key hardware design and implementation trades. Space-based PAFR designs are highly multi-disciplinary and we briefly address key hardware engineering design areas. Finally, we briefly describe two PAFR antenna architectures that have been developed at Northrop Grumman.

antenna↗

Explaining Earths Energy Budget: CERES-Based NASA Resources for K-12 Education and Public Outreach

Among atmospheric scientists, the importance of the Earth radiation budget concept is well understood. Papers have addressed the topic for over 100 years, and the large Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) science team (among others), with its multiple on-orbit instruments, is working hard to quantify the details of its various parts. In education, Earth's energy budget is a concept that generally appears in middle school and Earth science curricula, but its treatment in textbooks leaves much to be desired. Students and the public hold many misconceptions, and very few people have an appreciation for the importance of this energy balance to the conditions on Earth. More importantly, few have a correct mental model that allows them to make predictions and understand the effect of changes such as increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. As an outreach element of the core CERES team at NASA Langley, a multi-disciplinary group of scientists, educators, graphic artists, writers, and web developers has been developing and refining graphics and resources to explain the Earth's Energy budget over the last few decades. Resources have developed through an iterative process involving ongoing use in front of a variety of audiences, including students and teachers from 3rd to 12th grade as well as public audiences.

Chambers, L. H.↗

Co-Optimization of Blunt Body Shapes for Moving Vehicles

A method and associated system for multi-disciplinary optimization of various parameters associated with a space vehicle that experiences aerocapture and atmospheric entry in a specified atmosphere. In one embodiment, simultaneous maximization of a ratio of landed payload to vehicle atmospheric entry mass, maximization of fluid flow distance before flow separation from vehicle, and minimization of heat transfer to the vehicle are performed with respect to vehicle surface geometric parameters, and aerostructure and aerothermal vehicle response for the vehicle moving along a specified trajectory. A Pareto Optimal set of superior performance parameters is identified.

Brown, James L.↗

Generation After Next Propulsor Research: Robust Design for Embedded Engine Systems

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration, United Technologies Research Center and Virginia Polytechnic and State University have contracted to pursue multi-disciplinary research into boundary layer ingesting (BLI) propulsors for generation after next environmentally responsible subsonic fixed wing aircraft. This Robust Design for Embedded Engine Systems project first conducted a high-level vehicle system study based on a large commercial transport class hybrid wing body aircraft, which determined that a 3 to 5 percent reduction in fuel burn could be achieved over a 7,500 nanometer mission. Both pylon-mounted baseline and BLI propulsion systems were based on a low-pressure-ratio fan (1.35) in an ultra-high-bypass ratio engine (16), consistent with the next generation of advanced commercial turbofans. An optimized, coupled BLI inlet and fan system was subsequently designed to achieve performance targets identified in the system study. The resulting system possesses an inlet with total pressure losses less than 0.5%, and a fan stage with an efficiency debit of less than 1.5 percent relative to the pylon-mounted, clean-inflow baseline. The subject research project has identified tools and methodologies necessary for the design of next-generation, highly-airframe-integrated propulsion systems. These tools will be validated in future large-scale testing of the BLI inlet / fan system in NASA's 8 foot x 6 foot transonic wind tunnel. In addition, fan unsteady response to screen-generated total pressure distortion is being characterized experimentally in a JT15D engine test rig. These data will document engine sensitivities to distortion magnitude and spatial distribution, providing early insight into key physical processes that will control BLI propulsor design.

Arend, David J.↗

Process Improvement Through Tool Integration in Aero-Mechanical Design

Emerging capabilities in commercial design tools promise to significantly improve the multi-disciplinary and inter-disciplinary design and analysis coverage for aerospace mechanical engineers. This paper explores the analysis process for two example problems of a wing and flap mechanical drive system and an aircraft landing gear door panel. The examples begin with the design solid models and include various analysis disciplines such as structural stress and aerodynamic loads. Analytical methods include CFD, multi-body dynamics with flexible bodies and structural analysis. Elements of analysis data management, data visualization and collaboration are also included.

Integrated design and analysis↗

Subsonic Ultra Green Aircraft Research: Truss Braced Wing Design Exploration - Phase II - Volume I

This report summarizes the Truss Braced Wing (TBW) work accomplished by the Boeing Subsonic Ultra Green Aircraft Research (SUGAR) team, consisting of Boeing Research and Technology, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, General Electric, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, NextGen Aeronautics, and Microcraft. A multi-disciplinary optimization (MDO) environment defined the geometry that was further refined for the updated SUGAR High TBW configuration. Airfoil shapes were tested in the NASA TCT facility, and an aeroelastic model was tested in the NASA TDT facility. Flutter suppression was successfully demonstrated using control laws derived from test system ID data and analysis models. Aeroelastic impacts for the TBW design are manageable and smaller than assumed in Phase I. Flutter analysis of TBW designs need to include pre-load and large displacement non-linear effects to obtain a reasonable match to test data. With the updated performance and sizing, fuel burn and energy use is reduced by 54% compared to the SUGAR Free current technology Baseline (Goal 60%). Use of the unducted fan version of the engine reduces fuel burn and energy by 56% compared to the Baseline. Technology development roadmaps were updated, and an airport compatibility analysis established feasibility of a folding wing aircraft at existing airports.

Bradley, Marty K.↗

SLS-Derived Lab- Precursor to Deep Space Human Exploration

Plans to send humans to Mars are in the works and the launch system is being built. Are we ready? Transportation, entry, landing, and surface operations have been successfully demonstrated for robotic missions. However, for human missions, there are significant, potentially show-stopping issues. These issues, called Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs), are the unanswered questions concerning long duration exploration Beyond low Earth Orbit (BEO). The gaps represent a risk of loss of life or mission and because they require extended exposure to the weightless environment outside of earth's protective geo-magnetic field, they cannot be resolved on Earth or on the International Space Station (ISS). Placing a laboratory at a relatively close and stable lunar Distant Retrograde Orbit (DRO) provides an accessible location with the requisite environmental conditions for conducting SKG research and testing mitigation solutions. Configurations comprised of multiple 3 m and 4.3 m diameter modules have been studied but the most attractive solution uses elements of the human Mars launch vehicle or Space Launch System (SLS) for a Mars proving ground laboratory. A shortened version of an SLS hydrogen propellant tank creates a Skylab-like pressure vessel that flies fully outfitted on a single launch. This not only offers significant savings by incorporating SLS pressure vessel development costs but avoids the expensive ISS approach using many launches with substantial on-orbit assembly before becoming operational. One of the most challenging SKGs is crew radiation protection; this is why SKG laboratory research is combined with Mars transit habitat systems development. Fundamentally, the two cannot be divorced because using the habitat systems for protection requires actual hardware geometry and material properties intended to contribute to shielding effectiveness. The SKGs are difficult problems. The solutions to these problems are not obvious; they require integrated, iterative, and multi-disciplinary development. A lunar DRO lab built from SLS elements enables an early and representative transit habitat test bed necessary for closing gaps before sending humans on a 1,000-day Mars mission.

Griffin, Brand M.↗

Climate Change Impact Uncertainties for Maize in Panama: Farm Information, Climate Projections, and Yield Sensitivities

We present results from a pilot project to characterize and bound multi-disciplinary uncertainties around the assessment of maize (Zea mays) production impacts using the CERES-Maize crop model in a climate-sensitive region with a variety of farming systems (Panama). Segunda coa (autumn) maize yield in Panama currently suffers occasionally from high water stress at the end of the growing season, however under future climate conditions warmer temperatures accelerate crop maturation and elevated CO (sub 2) concentrations improve water retention. This combination reduces end-of-season water stresses and eventually leads to small mean yield gains according to median projections, although accelerated maturation reduces yields in seasons with low water stresses. Calibrations of cultivar traits, soil profile, and fertilizer amounts are most important for representing baseline yields, however sensitivity to all management factors is reduced in an assessment of future yield changes (most dramatically for fertilizers), suggesting that yield changes may be more generalizable than absolute yields. Uncertainty around General Circulation Model (GCM)s' projected changes in rainfall gain in importance throughout the century, with yield changes strongly correlated with growing season rainfall totals. Climate changes are expected to be obscured by the large inter-annual variations in Panamanian climate that will continue to be the dominant influence on seasonal maize yield into the coming decades. The relatively high (A2) and low (B1) emissions scenarios show little difference in their impact on future maize yields until the end of the century. Uncertainties related to the sensitivity of CERES-Maize to carbon dioxide concentrations have a substantial influence on projected changes, and remain a significant obstacle to climate change impacts assessment. Finally, an investigation into the potential of simple statistical yield emulators based upon key climate variables characterizes the important uncertainties behind the selection of climate change metrics and their performance against more complex process-based crop model simulations, revealing a danger in relying only on long-term mean quantities for crop impact assessment.

Maize↗

SLS-Derived Lab: Precursor to Deep Space Human Exploration

Plans to send humans to Mars are in work and the launch system is being built. Are we ready? Robotic missions have successfully demonstrated transportation, entry, landing and surface operations but for human missions there are significant, potentially show-stopping issues. These issues, called Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) are the unanswered questions concerning long-duration exploration beyond low-earth-orbit. The gaps represent a risk of loss of life or mission and because they require extended exposure to the weightless environment outside earth's protective geo-magnetic field they cannot be resolved on the earth or on the International Space Station (ISS). Placing a laboratory at the relatively close and stable lunar Distant Retrograde Orbit (DRO) provides an accessible location with the requisite environmental conditions for conducting SKG research and testing mitigation solutions. Configurations comprised of multiple 3 meter and 4.3 meter diameter modules have been studied but the most attractive solution uses elements of the human Mars launch vehicle or Space Launch System (SLS) for a Mars proving ground laboratory. A shortened version of an SLS hydrogen propellant tank creates a Skylab-like pressure vessel that flies fully outfitted on a single launch. This not only offers significant savings by incorporating SLS pressure vessel development costs but avoids the expensive ISS approach using many launches with substantial on-orbit assembly before becoming operational. One of the most challenging SKGs is crew radiation protection; this is why SKG laboratory research is combined with Mars transit Habitat systems development. Fundamentally, the two cannot be divorced because using the habitat systems for protection requires actual hardware geometry and material properties intended to contribute to shielding effectiveness. The SKGs are difficult problems, solutions are not obvious, and require integrated, iterative, and multi-disciplinary development. A lunar DRO lab built from the launch system elements enables an early and representative transit habitat test bed necessary for closing gaps before sending humans on a 1000 day Mars mission.

Griffin, Brand↗

An Integrated Extravehicular Activity Research Plan

Multiple organizations within NASA and outside of NASA fund and participate in research related to extravehicular activity (EVA). In October 2015, representatives of the EVA Office, the Crew and Thermal Systems Division (CTSD), and the Human Research Program (HRP) at NASA Johnson Space Center agreed on a formal framework to improve multi-year coordination and collaboration in EVA research. At the core of the framework is an Integrated EVA Research Plan and a process by which it will be annually reviewed and updated. The over-arching objective of the collaborative framework is to conduct multi-disciplinary cost-effective research that will enable humans to perform EVAs safely, effectively, comfortably, and efficiently, as needed to enable and enhance human space exploration missions. Research activities must be defined, prioritized, planned and executed to comprehensively address the right questions, avoid duplication, leverage other complementary activities where possible, and ultimately provide actionable evidence-based results in time to inform subsequent tests, developments and/or research activities. Representation of all appropriate stakeholders in the definition, prioritization, planning and execution of research activities is essential to accomplishing the over-arching objective. A formal review of the Integrated EVA Research Plan will be conducted annually. External peer review of all HRP EVA research activities including compilation and review of published literature in the EVA Evidence Book is already performed annually. Coordination with stakeholders outside of the EVA Office, CTSD, and HRP is already in effect on a study-by-study basis; closer coordination on multi-year planning with other EVA stakeholders including academia is being actively pursued. Details of the current Integrated EVA Research Plan are presented including description of ongoing and planned research activities in the areas of: Benchmarking; Anthropometry and Suit Fit; Sensors; Human-Suit Modeling; Suit Trauma Monitoring and Countermeasures; EVA Workload and Duration Effects; Decompression Sickness Risk Mitigation; Deconditioned EVA Performance; and Exploration EVA Concept of Operations.

Abercromby, Andrew F. J.↗

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Town Hall

AgMIP (www.agmip.org) is an international community of climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts working to further the development and application of multi-model, multi-scale, multi-disciplinary agricultural models that can inform policy and decision makers around the world. This meeting will engage the AGU community by providing a brief overview of AgMIP, in particular its new plans for a Coordinated Global and Regional Assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security for AR6. This Town Hall will help identify opportunities for participants to become involved in AgMIP and its 30+ activities.

farm crops↗

NASA's Earth Science Flight Program Meets the Challenges of Today and Tomorrow

NASA's Earth science flight program is a dynamic undertaking that consists of a large fleet of operating satellites, an array of satellite and instrument projects in various stages of development, a robust airborne science program, and a massive data archiving and distribution system. Each element of the flight program is complex and present unique challenges. NASA builds upon its successes and learns from its setbacks to manage this evolving portfolio to meet NASA's Earth science objectives. NASA fleet of 16 operating missions provide a wide range of scientific measurements made from dedicated Earth science satellites and from instruments mounted to the International Space Station. For operational missions, the program must address issues such as an aging satellites operating well beyond their prime mission, constellation flying, and collision avoidance with other spacecraft and orbital debris. Projects in development are divided into two broad categories: systematic missions and pathfinders. The Earth Systematic Missions (ESM) include a broad range of multi-disciplinary Earth-observing research satellite missions aimed at understanding the Earth system and its response to natural and human-induced forces and changes. Understanding these forces will help determine how to predict future changes, and how to mitigate or adapt to these changes. The Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) program provides frequent, regular, competitively selected Earth science research opportunities that accommodate new and emerging scientific priorities and measurement capabilities. This results in a series of relatively low-cost, small-sized investigations and missions. Principal investigators whose scientific objectives support a variety of studies lead these missions, including studies of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, polar ice regions, or solid Earth. This portfolio of missions and investigations provides opportunity for investment in innovative Earth science that enhances NASA's capability for better understanding the current state of the Earth system. ESM and ESSP projects often involve partnerships with other US agencies and/or international organizations. This adds to the complexity of mission development, but allows for a greater scientific return on NASA's investments. The Earth Science Airborne Science Program provides manned and unmanned aircraft systems that further science and advance the use of satellite data. NASA uses these assets worldwide in campaigns to investigate extreme weather events, observe Earth system processes, obtain data for Earth science modeling activities, and calibrate instruments flying aboard Earth science spacecraft. The Airborne Science Program has six dedicated aircraft and access to many other platforms. The Earth Science Multi-Mission Operations program acquires, preserves, and distributes observational data from operating spacecraft to support Earth Science research focus areas. The Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS), which has been in operations since 1994, primarily accomplishes this. EOSDIS acquires, processes, archives, and distributes Earth Science data and information products. The archiving of NASA Earth Science information happens at eight Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs) and four disciplinary data centers located across the United States. The DAACs specialize by topic area, and make their data available to researchers around the world. The DAACs currently house over 9 petabytes of data, growing at a rate of 6.4 terabytes per day. NASA's current Earth Science portfolio is responsive to the National Research Council (NRC) 2007 Earth Science Decadal Survey and well as the 2010 NASA Response to President Obama's Climate Plan. As the program evolves into the future it will leverage the lessons learned from the current missions in operations and development, and plan for adjustments to future objectives in response to the anticipated 2017 NRC Decadal Survey.

Flight Program↗

Mission Analysis and Aircraft Sizing of a Hybrid-Electric Regional Aircraft

The purpose of this study was to explore advanced airframe and propulsion technologies for a small regional transport aircraft concept (approximately 50 passengers), with the goal of creating a conceptual design that delivers significant cost and performance advantages over current aircraft in that class. In turn, this could encourage airlines to open up new markets, reestablish service at smaller airports, and increase mobility and connectivity for all passengers. To meet these study goals, hybrid-electric propulsion was analyzed as the primary enabling technology. The advanced regional aircraft is analyzed with four levels of electrification, 0 percent electric with 100 percent conventional, 25 percent electric with 75 percent conventional, 50 percent electric with 50 percent conventional, and 75 percent electric with 25 percent conventional for comparison purposes. Engine models were developed to represent projected future turboprop engine performance with advanced technology and estimates of the engine weights and flowpath dimensions were developed. A low-order multi-disciplinary optimization (MDO) environment was created that could capture the unique features of parallel hybrid-electric aircraft. It is determined that at the size and range of the advanced turboprop: The battery specific energy must be 750 watt-hours per kilogram or greater for the total energy to be less than for a conventional aircraft. A hybrid vehicle would likely not be economically feasible with a battery specific energy of 500 or 750 watt-hours per kilogram based on the higher gross weight, operating empty weight, and energy costs compared to a conventional turboprop. The battery specific energy would need to reach 1000 watt-hours per kilogram by 2030 to make the electrification of its propulsion an economically feasible option. A shorter range and/or an altered propulsion-airframe integration could provide more favorable results.

Antcliff, Kevin R.↗

COMPASS Final Report: Advanced Long-Life Lander Investigating the Venus Environment (ALIVE)

The COncurrent Multi-disciplinary Preliminary Assessment of Space Systems (COMPASS) Team partnered with the Applied Research Laboratory to perform a NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) Program study to evaluate chemical based power systems for keeping a Venus lander alive(power and cooling) and functional for a period of days. The mission class targeted was either a Discovery ($500M) or New Frontiers ($750M to $780M) class mission. Historic Soviet Venus landers have only lasted on the order of 2 hours in the extreme Venus environment: temperatures of 460 C and pressures of 93 bar. Longer duration missions have been studied using plutonium powered systems to operate and cool landers for up to a year. However, the plutonium load is very large. This NIAC study sought to still provide power and cooling but without the plutonium.

COMPASS↗

Simulations & Measurements of Airframe Noise: A BANC Workshops Perspective

Airframe noise corresponds to the acoustic radiation due to turbulent flow in the vicinity of airframe components such as high-lift devices and landing gears. Since 2010, the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics has organized an ongoing series of workshops devoted to Benchmark Problems for Airframe Noise Computations (BANC). The BANC workshops are aimed at enabling a systematic progress in the understanding and high-fidelity predictions of airframe noise via collaborative investigations that integrate computational fluid dynamics, computational aeroacoustics, and in depth measurements targeting a selected set of canonical yet realistic configurations that advance the current state-of-the-art in multiple respects. Unique features of the BANC Workshops include: intrinsically multi-disciplinary focus involving both fluid dynamics and aeroacoustics, holistic rather than predictive emphasis, concurrent, long term evolution of experiments and simulations with a powerful interplay between the two, and strongly integrative nature by virtue of multi-team, multi-facility, multiple-entry measurements. This paper illustrates these features in the context of the BANC problem categories and outlines some of the challenges involved and how they were addressed. A brief summary of the BANC effort, including its technical objectives, strategy, and selective outcomes thus far is also included.

Choudhari, Meelan↗

The Global Methane Budget 2000-2012

The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (approximately biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modeling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations).For the 2003-2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 540-568. About 60 of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50-65%). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 596-884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (approximately 64% of the global budget, less than 30deg N) as compared to mid (approximately 32%, 30-60deg N) and high northern latitudes (approximately 4%, 60-90deg N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (approximately 58 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 51-72, minus14% ) and higher emissions in Africa (86 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 73-108, plus 19% ) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30-40% on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_ METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project.

Saunois, Marielle↗