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At least 235 records · Page 13

Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect

Our planet’s energy balance is sensitive to spatial inhomogeneities in sea surface temperature and sea ice changes, but this is typically ignored in climate projections. Here, we show the energy budget during recent decades can be closed by combining changes in effective radiative forcing, linear radiative damping and this pattern effect. The pattern effect is of comparable magnitude but opposite sign to Earth’s net energy imbalance in the 2000s, indicating its importance when predicting the future climate on the basis of observations. Additionally, after the pattern effect is accounted for, the best-estimate value of committed global warming at present-day forcing rises from 1.31 K (0.99–2.33 K, 5th–95th percentile) to over 2 K, and committed warming in 2100 with constant long-lived forcing increases from 1.32 K (0.94–2.03 K) to over 1.5 K, although the magnitude is sensitive to sea surface temperature dataset. Further constraints on the pattern effect are needed to reduce climate projection uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Accelerated Nutrient Cycling and Increased Light Competition Will Lead to 21st Century Shrub Expansion in North American Arctic Tundra

We present that recent changes in species composition, and increases in shrub abundance in particular, have been reported as a result of warming in Arctic tundra. Despite these changes, the driving factors that control shrubification and its future trajectory remain uncertain. Here we used an ecosystem model, ecosys, to mechanistically represent the processes controlling recent and 21st century changes in plant functional type using RCP8.5 climate forcing across North American Arctic tundra. Recent and projected warming was modeled to deepen the active layer (spatially averaged by ~0.35 m by 2100) and thereby increase nutrient availability. Shrub productivity was modeled to increase across much of the tundra, particularly in Alaska and tundra-boreal ecotones. Deciduous and evergreen shrubs increased from ~45% of total tundra ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP) in recent decades to ~70% by 2100. The increased canopy cover of shrubs reduced incoming shortwave radiation for low-lying plants, causing declines in graminoids NPP from a current 35% of tundra NPP to 18%, and declines in nonvascular plants from 20% to 12%. The faster-growing deciduous shrubs modeled with less efficient nutrient conservation dominated much of the low Arctic by 2100 where nutrient cycling became more rapid, while the slower-growing evergreen shrubs modeled with more efficient nutrient conservation dominated a wider latitudinal range that extended to the high Arctic where nutrient cycling remained slower. Lastly, we conclude that high-latitude vegetation dynamics over the 21st century will depend strongly on soil nutrient dynamics, diversity in plant traits controlling nutrient uptake and conservation, and light competition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterizing single isolated radiation-damage events from molecular dynamics via virtual diffraction methods

In this study, the evolution and characterization of single-isolated-ion-strikes are investigated by combining atomistic simulations with selected-area electron diffraction (SAED) patterns generated from these simulations. Five molecular dynamics simulations are performed for a single 20 keV primary knock-on atom in bulk crystalline Si. The resulting cascade damage is characterized in two complementary ways. First, the individual cascade events are conventionally quantified through the evolution of the number of defects and the atomic (volumetric) strain associated with these defect structures. These results show that (i) the radiation damage produced is consistent with the Norgett, Robinson, and Torrens model of damage production and (ii) there is a net positive volumetric strain associated with the cascade structures. Second, virtual SAED patterns are generated for the resulting cascade-damaged structures along several zone axes. The analysis of the corresponding diffraction patterns shows the SAED spots approximately doubling in size, on average, due to broadening induced by the defect structures. Furthermore, the SAED spots are observed to exhibit an average radial outward shift between 0.33% and 0.87% depending on the zone axis. Finally, this characterization approach, as utilized here, is a preliminary investigation in developing methodologies and opportunities to link experimental observations with atomistic simulations to elucidate microstructural damage states.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Biomass burning aerosol radiative effects in the Southeast Atlantic depend strongly on meteorological forcing method

Biomass burning aerosols (BBAs) from African fires may strongly impact Earth’s radiation budget in the southeast Atlantic (SEA), but the sign and magnitude of the overall radiative effect (RE) remain uncertain. Aerosol–climate models are needed to separately quantify direct, indirect, and semi-direct REs. Here, we evaluate improved simulations with the UK Met Office's Unified Model and explore REs resulting from various methods used to match observed meteorology (nudging or running forecasts reinitialized at different frequencies). REs are calculated as differences in radiative fluxes between simulations with and without smoke emissions and with and without aerosol absorption. All model setups agree on net warming for the SEA dominated by the direct effect. Simulated smoke, clouds, and the direct effect agree better with observations than previous studies using the same model, though biases in aerosol extinction and liquid water path remain. Changes in cloud droplet number concentration due to BBA self-lofting influence how cleanly we can separate cloud effects into semi-direct and indirect effects. Total RE, which remains unaffected, ranges from +3.0 to +7.9 W m −2 . The 4.9 W m −2 spread arises mainly from simulated semi-direct effects. Forecasts three days long or less probably do not allow time for plausible differences in boundary layer properties due to semi-direct effects to accumulate. Free running simulations with and without smoke accumulate differences in meteorology that are likely spurious “butterfly effects”. We recommend future research quantifying BBA REs over weeks to months to use meteorological forcing techniques that allow aerosol absorption to affect the boundary layer.

Giuffrida, Eric [Carnegie Mellon University, Pitts↗

Bayesian Structural Time Series for Behind-the-Meter Photovoltaic Disaggregation: Preprint

Distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation often occurs ``behind the meter": a grid operator can only observe the net load, which is the sum of the gross load and distributed PV generation. This lack of observability poses a challenge to system operation at both bulk level and distribution level. The lack of real-time or near-future disaggregated estimates of gross load and PV generation will lead to over scheduling of energy production and regulation reserves, reliability constraints violations, wear and tear of controller devices, and potentially cascading failures of a system. In this paper we propose the use of a Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) model with local solar irradiance measurements to disaggregate the summed PV generation and gross load signals at a downstream measurement site. BSTSs are a highly expressive model class that blends classic time series models with the powerful Bayesian state space estimation framework. Disaggregation is done probabilistically, which automatically quantifies the uncertainties of the estimated PV generation and gross load consumption. Depending on the data availability in real-time, it can be used to disaggragate PV and gross load at customer site, or can be used at the feeder level. In this paper, we focus on solving the problem at feeder level. We compare the performance of a BSTS model as well as a handful of state-of-the-art methods on a Pecan Street AMI dataset, using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to estimate local irradiance.

Bayesian structural time series↗

Strong Local Evaporative Cooling Over Land Due to Atmospheric Aerosols

Abstract Aerosols can enhance terrestrial productivity through increased absorption of solar radiation by the shaded portion of the plant canopy—the diffuse radiation fertilization effect. Although this process can, in principle, alter surface evaporation due to the coupling between plant water loss and carbon uptake, with the potential to change the surface temperature, aerosol‐climate interactions have been traditionally viewed in light of the radiative effects within the atmosphere. Here, we develop a modeling framework that combines global atmosphere and land model simulations with a conceptual diagnostic tool to investigate these interactions from a surface energy budget perspective. Aerosols increase the terrestrial evaporative fraction, or the portion of net incoming energy consumed by evaporation, by over 4% globally and as much as ∼40% regionally. The main mechanism for this is the increase in energy allocation from sensible to latent heat due to global dimming (reduction in global shortwave radiation) and slightly augmented by diffuse radiation fertilization. In regions with moderately dense vegetation (leaf area index >2), the local surface cooling response to aerosols is dominated by this evaporative pathway, not the reduction in incident radiation. Diffuse radiation fertilization alone has a stronger impact on gross primary productivity (+2.18 Pg C y −1 or +1.8%) than on land evaporation (+0.18 W m −2 or +0.48%) and surface temperature (−0.01 K). Our results suggest that it is important for land surface models to distinguish between quantity (change in total magnitude) and quality (change in diffuse fraction) of radiative forcing for properly simulating surface climate.

Chakraborty, TC↗

Two-color, intracavity pump–probe, cavity ringdown spectroscopy

Here, we report a proof-of-principle demonstration of intracavity pump–probe, cavity ringdown (CRD) detection in a three-mirror, traveling-wave cavity. With cavity-enhanced pump power and probe absorption path length, the technique is a generally applicable, high-sensitivity, high-selectivity detection method. In our experiments, the pump radiation is switched off during every other probe ringdown, which allows uncorrelated measurements of analyte and background cavity decay rates. The net, two-color signal from the difference between the pump-on and pump-off decay rates is immune to empty-CRD drifts and spectral overlaps from non-target molecular transitions. The immunity to the ringdown drifts allows longer signal-averaging and, thus, higher detection sensitivity. The ability to compensate for the background absorption enhances the detection selectivity in spectrally congested regions. Our technique is well-suited for trace-detection in the mid-IR region, where pump–probe schemes based on strong rovibrational transitions can be applied. In this work, two-color CRD detection is implemented on a ladder-type, three-level system based on the N 2 O, ν 3 = 1 ← 0, P(19) (pump) and ν 3 = 2 ← 1, R(18) (probe), rovibrational transitions. By frequency-locking two-quantum cascade lasers to the p-polarization (pump, Finesse = 5280) and s-polarization (probe, Finesse = 67 700) cavity modes, we achieve high intracavity pump power (36 W) and high probe ringdown rates (>2 kHz). The observed two-color spectra are simulated by a density-matrix, three-level system model that is solved under the constraints of the cavity resonance conditions. In addition to its background compensation capability, experimental flexibility in the selection of pump–probe schemes and signal insensitivity to intracavity laser power are further features that enhance the utility of our technique for mid-IR trace-detection.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Upscaling Gross Primary Production in Corn-Soybean Rotation Systems in the Midwest

The Midwestern US is dominated by corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max [L.] Merr.) production, and the carbon dynamics of this region are dominated by these production systems. An accurate regional estimate of gross primary production (GPP) is imperative and requires upscaling approaches. The aim of this study was to upscale corn and soybean GPP (referred to as GPPcalc) in four counties in Central Iowa in the 2016 growing season (DOY 145–269). Eight eddy-covariance (EC) stations recorded carbon dioxide fluxes of corn (n = 4) and soybean (n = 4), and net ecosystem production (NEP) was partitioned into GPP and ecosystem respiration (RE). Additional field-measured NDVI was used to calculate radiation use efficiency (RUEmax). GPPcalc was calculated using 16 MODIS satellite images, ground-based RUEmax and meteorological data, and improved land use maps. Seasonal NEP, GPP, and RE ( x ¯ ± SE) were 678 ± 63, 1483 ± 100, and −805 ± 40 g C m−2 for corn, and 263 ± 40, 811 ± 53, and −548 ± 14 g C m−2 for soybean, respectively. Field-measured NDVI aligned well with MODIS fPAR (R2 = 0.99), and the calculated RUEmax was 3.24 and 1.90 g C MJ−1 for corn and soybean, respectively. The GPPcalc vs. EC-derived GPP had a RMSE of 2.24 and 2.81 g C m−2 d−1, for corn and soybean, respectively, which is an improvement to the GPPMODIS product (2.44 and 3.30 g C m−2 d−1, respectively). Corn yield, calculated from GPPcalc (12.82 ± 0.65 Mg ha−1), corresponded well to official yield data (13.09 ± 0.09 Mg ha−1), while soybean yield was overestimated (6.73 ± 0.27 vs. 4.03 ± 0.04 Mg ha−1). The approach presented has the potential to increase the accuracy of regional corn and soybean GPP and grain yield estimates by integrating field-based flux estimates with remote sensing reflectance observations and high-resolution land use maps.

Dold, Christian (ORCID:0000000260355597)↗

The Effects of Radiation and Emitted Light Transport on the Positional Response of 11 cm × 42.5 cm × 5.5 cm NaI(Tl) Detectors

Experiments were performed with 30 11 cm x 42.5 x cm 5.5 cm NaI(Tl) detectors to better understand their positional response. Spectra were collected using 0.02 to 0.15 MBq point sources of 241 Am, 137 Cs, 60 Co, and 133 Ba positioned on lines parallel and perpendicular to the long axis of the crystal along both the narrow and wide detector faces as well as at different distances from them. A greater density of positions was sampled at the ends of the detector, and repeated measurements were made to examine potential gain drifts during the experiment. Spectroscopic peak counts, spectroscopic pulse heights, and net counts were analyzed. Empirical equations were fit to the aforementioned data for each specific source energy as a function of source position. In addition, a Monte Carlo radiation transport code was used to simulate the expected positionally variable response based solely upon radiation absorption. The simulated radiation transport efficiency functions were compared to the experimental data. The effects of the geometric radiation efficiency, the attenuation and scattering of emitted light within the scintillation crystal, and combined effects such as non-uniformity of the photomultiplier tube photocathode response and crystal irregularities were then distinguished. Functions describing each effect were derived. The results suggest potential new corrections to data obtained with large scintillation detectors as well as a novel approach to partial positional gamma-ray detection with minimal collimation, given that the energy resolution is within reason for particular photopeaks.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

C/2010 U3 (Boattini): A Bizarre Comet Active at Record Heliocentric Distance

We present a photometric and dynamical study of comet C/2010 U3 (Boattini), which was seen active in prediscovery data as early as 2005 November at a new inbound record heliocentric distance of r {sub H} = 25.8 au. Two outburst events around 2009 and 2017 were observed. The coma and tail of the comet consist of dust grains of ~10 μm in radius, ejected protractedly at speeds ≲50 m s{sup -1} near the subsolar point, and are subjected to the Lorentz force, solar gravitation, and radiation pressure force all together. The prolonged activity indicates that sublimation of supervolatiles (e.g., CO, CO{sub 2}) is at play, causing a net mass-loss rate ≳1 kg s{sup -1}. To sustain the mass loss, the nucleus radius has to be ≳0.1 km. The color of the cometary dust, similar to other long-period comets, is redder than the solar colors, but we also observed potential color variations when the comet was at 10 < r {sub H} < 15 au, concurrent with the onset of crystallization of amorphous water ice, if at all. Using publicly available and our refined astrometric measurements, we estimated the precise trajectory of the comet and propagated it backward to its previous perihelion. We found that the comet visited the planetary region 1.96 ± 0.04 Myr ago, with barycentric perihelion distance q = 8.364 ± 0.004 au. Thus, C/2010 U3 (Boattini) is almost certainly a dynamically old comet from the Oort cloud, and the observed activity cannot be caused by retained heat from the previous apparition.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Anomalous softening of 3D printed elastomeric foam irradiated under compressive strain

Elastomeric foam is an essential component in many industrial and technological settings, primarily as thermal insulators and as positional/mechanical support cushions. In particular, silicone foam is utilized in harsh environments due to exceptional thermal and chemical stability. Under service conditions within certain applications such material gets exposed to a high dosage of gamma radiation, which can permanently alter the material’s structural and mechanical response properties. Most studies on gamma-exposure under inert or oxidative atmosphere indicate hardening of silicone foam, which is attributed to radiation-induced enhancement in chemical cross-linking. Here we report two contrasting effects depending on whether (non-oxidative) radiation exposure is carried out with the foam under zero or finite compressive strain. While in the former case we observe radiation-hardening consistent with previous studies, in the latter case (50% porous foam under 30% uniaxial compression) we see a monotonic decrease in Young’s modulus with increasing dosage, although solvent swelling experiments on the constituent rubber indicate a net increase in cross-link density independent of the state of strain. We quantitatively model all dose-dependent data using the Ogden Hyperfoam strain-energy function within the framework of Tobolsky two-network scheme and attribute the above anomaly to a combined effect of radiation-induced thickness change (compression set) and inherent nonlinearity in the foam’s stress-strain response.

Coarse-grained models↗

Nonlinear simulations of thermo-resistive tearing mode formalism of the density limit

This work is an extension of the previous semi-analytical work (Teng et al 2016 Nucl. Fusion 56 106001), explaining the density limit with a thermo-resistive tearing mode model. The thermo-resistive island growth is calculated with a 3D MHD code M3D-C 1 (Jardin et al 2012 Comput. Sci. Discovery 5 014002). It is shown with nonlinear 3D MHD simulations that impurity radiation stimulates large magnetic islands at the density limit. The impact of thermal perturbations inside and outside of the island is explored. Inside the island, net cooling enhances the island growth and net heating suppresses its growth. Outside the island, thermal perturbations have a much smaller impact on the island growth. When the plasma density is increased towards the density limit, the island changes from being heated to being cooled and grows to a much larger island width. The convergence test of the simulations over the temporal and spatial grid is performed. In conclusion, the numerical model and the semi-analytical model are compared by calculating the Δ' terms, which are defined in the modified Rutherford equation, and good agreement is observed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The effect of surface charge on the thermal stability and ice recrystallization inhibition activity of antifreeze protein III (AFP III)

Highlights: • Chemical cationization improves thermal stability of antifreeze protein III. • Cationic antifreeze protein III retains ice recrystallization inhibition activity. • Synchrotron radiation circular dichroism investigation of antifreeze protein III. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of chemical cationization on the structure and function of antifreeze protein III (AFP III) over an extreme temperature range (−40°C to +90°C) using far-UV synchrotron radiation circular dichroism (SRCD) and ice recrystallization inhibition (IRI) assays. Chemical cationization was able to produce a modified AFP III with a net cationic charge at physiological pH that had enhanced resistance to denaturation at elevated temperatures, with no immediate negative impact on protein structure at subzero temperatures. Furthermore, cationized AFP III retained an IRI activity similar to that of native AFP III. Consequently, chemical cationization may provide a pathway to the development of more robust antifreeze proteins as supplementary cryoprotectants in the cryopreservation of clinically relevant cells.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Formation of Magnetically Truncated Accretion Disks in 3D Radiation-transport Two-temperature GRMHD Simulations

Multiwavelength observations suggest that the accretion disk in the hard and intermediate states of X-ray binaries (XRBs) and active galactic nucleus transitions from a cold, thin disk at large distances into a hot, thick flow close to the black hole (BH). However, the formation, structure, and dynamics of such truncated disks are poorly constrained due to the complexity of the thermodynamic, magnetic, and radiative processes involved. We present the first radiation-transport two-temperature general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations of truncated disks radiating at ~35% of the Eddington luminosity with and without large-scale poloidal magnetic flux. We demonstrate that when a geometrically thin accretion disk is threaded by large-scale net poloidal magnetic flux, it self-consistently transitions at small radii into a two-phase medium of cold gas clumps floating through a hot, magnetically dominated corona. This transition occurs at a well-defined truncation radius determined by the distance out to which the disk is saturated with magnetic flux. The average ion and electron temperatures in the semiopaque corona reach, respectively, $T_i$ ≳ 10 10 K and $T_e$ ≳ 5 × 10 8 K. The system produces radiation, powerful collimated jets, and broader winds at the total energy efficiency exceeding 90%, the highest ever energy extraction efficiency from a spinning BH by a radiatively efficient flow in a GRMHD simulation. This is consistent with jetted ejections observed during XRB outbursts. The two-phase medium may naturally lead to broadened iron line emission observed in the hard state.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The role of local shipping emissions in aerosol-cloud interactions in the central Arctic

Arctic shipping is projected to increase as sea ice retreats, yet the impact of modern low-sulfur ship emissions on Arctic clouds and radiation remain poorly constrained. We use year-long in situ observations from the MOSAiC expedition to characterize ship-aerosol-cloud interactions for an icebreaker burning ultra-low sulfur fuel (0.1% mass per mass). Exhaust plumes were found to be strongly enriched in Aitken-mode particles, organic aerosol, and black carbon, but showed no detectable enhancement in particulate sulfate. Despite reduced hygroscopicity relative to ambient aerosols, ship emissions substantially increased local cloud condensation nuclei concentrations. A droplet activation parameterization was applied to quantify responses in cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ) to ship-induced perturbations in low-level Arctic clouds. In winter, abundant background accumulation-mode particles from Arctic haze supplied nearly all cloud droplets, while additional particles from ship emissions had little impact on N d . In contrast, during summer months, when unperturbed background aerosol concentrations are low, ship emissions nearly doubled N d compared to average background conditions and increased N d by a factor of five compared to very clean background conditions (25th percentile of background aerosol number concentrations). Longwave radiative transfer simulations for typical conditions of summer Arctic low-level clouds/fog suggest that these ship-induced increases in N d locally (i.e. <100 km downwind) lead to enhanced net surface longwave fluxes and consequent warming, primarily for optically thin clouds (liquid water path (LWP) ⩽ 30 g·m −2 ). For LWP = 10 g · m −2 , ship emissions lead to an increase of 1 W · m −2 in cloud longwave forcing at the surface compared to average unperturbed conditions (+7% relative increase), and up to 4 W · m −2 when compared to very clean background conditions (+22% relative increase). Even ultra-low sulfur fuel emissions can therefore locally and episodically modify Arctic cloud microphysics and radiative properties, especially during summer, implying that future increases in Arctic shipping could have non-negligible regional climate impacts.

Arctic↗

Impact of Physics Parameterization Ordering in a Global Atmosphere Model

Abstract Because weather and climate models must capture a wide variety of spatial and temporal scales, they rely heavily on parameterizations of subgrid‐scale processes. The goal of this study is to demonstrate that the assumptions used to couple these parameterizations have an important effect on the climate of version 0 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) General Circulation Model (GCM), a close relative of version 1 of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Like most GCMs, parameterizations in E3SM are sequentially split in the sense that parameterizations are called one after another with each subsequent process feeling the effect of the preceding processes. This coupling strategy is noncommutative in the sense that the order in which processes are called impacts the solution. By examining a suite of 24 simulations with deep convection, shallow convection, macrophysics/microphysics, and radiation parameterizations reordered, process order is shown to have a big impact on predicted climate. In particular, reordering of processes induces differences in net climate feedback that are as big as the intermodel spread in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. One reason why process ordering has such a large impact is that the effect of each process is influenced by the processes preceding it. Where output is written is therefore an important control on apparent model behavior. Application of k ‐means clustering demonstrates that the positioning of macro/microphysics and shallow convection plays a critical role on the model solution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Uncertain role of clouds in shaping summertime atmosphere-sea ice connections in reanalyses and CMIP6 models

Downwelling longwave radiation (DLR) driven by the atmospheric and cloud conditions in the troposphere is suggested to be a dominant factor to determine the summertime net surface energy budget over the Arctic Ocean and thus plays a key role to shape the September sea ice. We use reanalyses and the self-organizing map (SOM) method to distinguish CMIP6 model performance in replicating the observed strong atmosphere-DLR connection. We find all models can reasonably simulate the linkage between key atmosphere variables and the clear sky DLR but behave differently in replicating the atmosphere-DLR connection due to cloud forcing. In ERA5 and strongly coupled models, tropospheric high pressure is associated with decreased clouds in the mid- and high-levels and increased clouds near the surface. This out-of-phase structure indicates that DLR cloud forcing is nearly neutral, making the clear sky DLR more important to bridge JJA circulation to late-summer sea ice. In MERRA-2 and weakly coupled models, tropospheric clouds display a vertically homogeneous reduction; the cloud DLR is thus strongly reduced due to the cooling effect, which partially cancels out the clear sky DLR and makes the total DLR less efficient to translate circulation forcing to sea ice. The differences of cloud vertical distribution in CMIP6 appear to be differentiated by circulation related relative humidity. Therefore, a better understanding of the discrepancy of different reanalyses and remote sensing products is critical to comprehensively evaluate simulated interactions among circulation, clouds, sea ice and energy budget at the surface in summer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗