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NASA NTRS2008

Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft- and Satellite-Based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on H*Wind Analyses and Numerical Forecasts

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor for hurricane observations that is currently under development by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida and the University of Michigan. HIRAD is being designed to enhance the realtime airborne ocean surface winds observation capabilities of NOAA and USAF Weather Squadron hurricane hunter aircraft using the operational airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR). Unlike SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track directly beneath the aircraft, HIRAD will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath (~ 3 x the aircraft altitude). The present paper describes a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing instruments (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a detailed numerical model, and those results are used to construct H*Wind analyses. The H*Wind analysis, a product of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, brings together wind measurements from a variety of observation platforms into an objective analysis of the distribution of wind speeds in a tropical cyclone. This product is designed to improve understanding of the extent and strength of the wind field, and to improve the assessment of hurricane intensity. See http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/wind.html. Evaluations will be presented on the impact of the HIRAD instrument on H*Wind analyses, both in terms of adding it to the full suite of current measurements, as well as using it to replace instrument(s) that may not be functioning at the future time the HIRAD instrument is deployed. Plans to demonstrate the potential for HIRAD to improve numerical weather prediction of hurricanes will also be presented.

Miller, Timothy↗

NASA NTRS2009

Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft- and Satellite-Based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on H*Wind Analyses and Numerical Forecasts

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor for hurricane observations that is currently under development by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida and the University of Michigan. HIRAD is being designed to enhance the realtime airborne ocean surface winds observation capabilities of NOAA and USAF Weather Squadron hurricane hunter aircraft using the operational airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR). Unlike SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track directly beneath the aircraft, HIRAD will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath (~ 3 x the aircraft altitude). The present paper describes a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing instruments (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a detailed numerical model, and those results are used to construct H*Wind analyses. The H*Wind analysis, a product of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, brings together wind measurements from a variety of observation platforms into an objective analysis of the distribution of wind speeds in a tropical cyclone. This product is designed to improve understanding of the extent and strength of the wind field, and to improve the assessment of hurricane intensity. See http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/wind.html. Evaluations will be presented on the impact of the HIRAD instrument on H*Wind analyses, both in terms of adding it to the full suite of current measurements, as well as using it to replace instrument(s) that may not be functioning at the future time the HIRAD instrument is implemented. Also shown will be preliminary results of numerical weather prediction OSSEs in which the impact of the addition of HIRAD observations to the initial state on numerical forecasts of the hurricane intensity and structure is assessed.

Miller, Timothy↗

NASA NTRS2009

Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft- and Satellite-based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on Estimates of Hurricane Intensity

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor currently under development to enhance real-time hurricane ocean surface wind observations. HIRAD builds on the capabilities of the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which now operates on NOAA P-3, G-4, and AFRC C-130 aircraft. Unlike the SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track directly beneath the aircraft, HIRAD will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath (approximately 3 times the aircraft altitude). To demonstrate potential improvement in the measurement of peak hurricane winds, we present a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing platforms (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a high-resolution (approximately 1.7 km) numerical model. Simulated retrieval errors due to both instrument noise as well as model function accuracy are considered over the expected range of incidence angles, wind speeds and rain rates. Based on numerous simulated flight patterns and data source combinations, statistics are developed to describe relationships between the observed and true (from the model s perspective) peak wind speed. These results have implications for improving the estimation of hurricane intensity (as defined by the peak sustained wind anywhere in the storm), which may often go un-observed due to sampling limitations.

Uhlhorn, Eric↗

NASA NTRS2010

Development, Capabilities, and Impact on Wind Analyses of the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor for hurricane observations that is currently under development by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in partnership with the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida, the University of Michigan, and the University of Alabama in Huntsville. The instrument is being test flown in January and is expected to participate in the tropical cyclone experiment GRIP (Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes) in the 2010 season. HIRAD is being designed to study the wind field in some detail within strong hurricanes and to enhance the real-time airborne ocean surface winds observation capabilities of NOAA and USAF Weather Squadron hurricane hunter aircraft currently using the operational Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR). Unlike SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track at a single point directly beneath the aircraft, HIRAD will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath (approximately 3 x the aircraft altitude) with approximately 2 km resolution. This paper describes the HIRAD instrument and the physical basis for its operations, including chamber test data from the instrument. The potential value of future HIRAD observations will be illustrated with a summary of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing instruments (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a detailed numerical model, and those results are used to construct simulated H*Wind analyses. Evaluations will be presented on the impact on H*Wind analyses of using the HIRAD instrument observations to replace those of the SFMR instrument, and also on the impact of a future satellite-based HIRAD in comparison to instruments with more limited capabilities for observing strong winds through heavy rain. Potential impact on numerical prediction of hurricane intensity will also be discussed.

Miller, T.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Development, Capabilities, and Impact on Wind Analyses of the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor for hurricane observations that is currently under development by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in partnership with the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida, the University of Michigan, and the University of Alabama in Huntsville. The instrument is being test flown in January and is expected to participate in the tropical cyclone experiment GRIP (Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes) in the 2010 season. HIRAD is being designed to study the wind field in some detail within strong hurricanes and to enhance the real-time airborne ocean surface winds observation capabilities of NOAA and USAF Weather Squadron hurricane hunter aircraft currently using the operational Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR). Unlike SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track at a single point directly beneath the aircraft, HIRAD will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath (approximately 3 x the aircraft altitude) with approximately 2 km resolution. This paper describes the HIRAD instrument and the physical basis for its operations, including chamber test data from the instrument. The potential value of future HIRAD observations will be illustrated with a summary of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing instruments (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a detailed numerical model, and those results are used to construct simulated H*Wind analyses. Evaluations will be presented on the impact on H*Wind analyses of using the HIRAD instrument observations to replace those of the SFMR instrument, and also on the impact of a future satellite-based HIRAD in comparison to instruments with more limited capabilities for observing strong winds through heavy rain. Potential impact on numerical prediction of hurricane intensity will also be discussed.

Miller, T.↗

NASA NTRS1995

A review of the US Global Change Research Program and NASA's Mission to Planet Earth/Earth Observing System

This report reflects the results of a ten-day workshop convened at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography July 19-28, 1995. The workshop was convened as the first phase of a two part review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The workshop was organized to provide a review of the scientific foundations and progress to date in the USGCRP and an assessment of the implications of new scientific insights for future USGCRP and Mission to Planet Earth/Earth Observing System (MTPE/EOS) activities; a review of the role of NASA's MTPE/EOS program in the USGCRP observational strategy; a review of the EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS) as a component of USGCRP data management activities; and an assessment of whether recent developments in the following areas lead to a need to readjust MTPE/EOS plans. Specific consideration was given to: proposed convergence of U.S. environmental satellite systems and programs, evolving international plans for Earth observation systems, advances in technology, and potential expansion of the role of the private sector. The present report summarizes the findings and recommendations developed by the Committee on Global Change Research on the basis of the presentations, background materials, working group deliberations, and plenary discussions of the workshop. In addition, the appendices include summaries prepared by the six working groups convened in the course of the workshop.

Moore, Berrien, III↗

NASA NTRS2020

Exocomets from a Solar System Perspective

Exocomets are small bodies releasing gas and dust which orbit stars other than the Sun. Their existence was first inferred from the detection of variable absorption features in stellar spectra in the late 1980s using spectroscopy. More recently, they have been detected through photometric transits from space, and through far-IR/mm gas emission within debris disks. As (exo)comets are considered to contain the most pristine material accessible in stellar systems, they hold the potential to give us information about early stage formation and evolution conditions of extra solar systems. In the solar system, comets carry the physical and chemical memory of the protoplanetary disk environment where they formed, providing relevant information on processes in the primordial solar nebula. The aim of this paper is to compare essential compositional properties between solar system comets and exocomets to allow for the development of new observational methods and techniques. The paper aims to highlight commonalities and to discuss differences which may aid the communication between the involved research communities and perhaps also avoid misconceptions. The compositional properties of solar system comets and exocomets are summarized before providing an observational comparison between them. Exocomets likely vary in their composition depending on their formation environment like solar system comets do, and since exocomets are not resolved spatially, they pose a challenge when comparing them to high fidelity observations.

comets↗

NASA NTRS1981

New problems of cometary observations from space

The possibility of treating the comets as natural probes of the solar system presents one of the attractive sides of cometary astronomy. In connection with the plans to study comets from space, new aspects for comets as interplanetary probes are of interst. Possible meteor formation in cometary heads and the implication for space research are considered.

Dobrovolsky, O. V.↗

NASA NTRS2004

CHANDRA Observations of V407 Vul: Confirmation of the Spin-up

V407 Vu1 (RX J1914.4+2456) is a candidate double-degenerate binary with a putative 1.756 mHz (9.5 min) orbital frequency. In a previous timing study using archival ROSAT and ASCA data we reported evidence for an increase of this frequency at a rate consistent with expectations for gravitational radiation from a detached ultracompact binary system. Here we report the results of new Chandra timing observations which confirm the previous indications of spin-up of the X-ray frequency, and provide much tighter constraints on the frequency derivative, nu (raised dot). We obtained with Chandra a total of 90 ksec of exposure in two epochs separated in time by 11.5 months. The total time span of the archival ROSAT, ASCA and new Chandra data is now approximately equal to 10.5 years. This more than doubles the interval spanned by the ROSAT and ASCA data alone, providing much greater sensitivity to a frequency derivative. With the addition of the Chandra data an increasing frequency is unavoidable, and the mean nu (raised dot) is 7.0 plus or minus 0.8 x l0(exp -18) Hz per second. Although a long-term spin-up trend is confirmed, there is excess variance in the phase timing residuals, perhaps indicative of shorter timescale torque fluctuations or phase instability associated with the source of the X-ray flux. Power spectral searches for periods longward of the 9.5 minute period do not find any significant modulations, however, the sensitivity of searches in this frequency range are somewhat compromised by the dithering of the Chandra attitude. The observed spin-up is of a magnitude consistent with that expected from gravitational radiation decay, however, the factor of approximately equal to 3 variations in flux combined with the timing noise could conceivably result from accretion-induced spin-up of a white dwarf. Continued monitoring to explore correlations of torque with X-ray flux could provide a further test of this hypothesis.

Strohmayer, T.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Overview of the Landsat-7 Mission

Landsat-7 is scheduled for launch on April 15 from the Western Test Range at Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., on a Delta-H expendable launch vehicle. The Landsat 7 satellite consists of a spacecraft bus being provided by Lockheed Martin Missiles and Space (Valley Forge, Pa.) and the Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus instrument built by Raytheon (formerly Hughes) Santa Barbara Remote Sensing (Santa Barbara, Calif.). The instrument on board Landsat 7 is the Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+). ETM+ improves upon the previous Thematic Mapper (TM) instruments on Landsat's 4 and 5 (Fig. la and lb). It includes the previous 7 spectral bands measuring reflected solar radiation and emitted thermal emissions but, in addition, includes a new 15 in panchromatic (visible-near infrared) band. The spatial resolution of the thermal infrared band has also been improved to 60 m. Both the radiometric precision and accuracy of the sensor are also improved from the previous TM sensors. After being launched into a sun-synchronous polar orbit, the satellite will use on-board propulsion to adjust its orbit to a circular altitude of 438 miles (705 kilometers) crossing the equator at approximately 10 a.m. on its southward track. This orbit will place Landsat 7 along the same ground track as previous Landsat satellites. The orbit will be maintained with periodic adjustments for the life of the mission. A three-axis attitude control subsystem will stabilize the satellite and keep the instrument pointed toward the Earth to within 0.05 degrees. Later this year, plans call for the NASA Earth Observation System (EOS) Terra (AM-1) observatory and the experimental EO-1 mission to closely follow Landsat-7's orbit to support synergistic research and applications from this new suite of terrestrial sensor systems. Landsat is the United States' oldest land-surface observation satellite system, with satellites continuously operating since 1972. Although the program has scored numerous successes in scientific and resource-management applications, Landsat has had a tumultuous history of management and funding changes over its nearly 27-year history. Landsat-7 marks a new direction in the program to reduce the cost of data and increase systematic global coverage for use in global change research as well as commercial and regional applications. With the passage of the Land Remote Sensing Policy Act in 1992, oversight of the Landsat program began to shift from the commercial sector to the federal government. NASA integrated Landsat-7 into its EOS science program in 1994. Landsat-7 is managed and operated jointly by NASA and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). As a result, the costs of acquiring observations from

Williams, Darrel↗

NASA NTRS2009

New Observations of UV Emissions from Europa

The recent top prioritization of the Europa Jupiter System Mission for the next outer solar system flagship mission is refocusing attention on Europa and the other Galilean satellites and their contextual environments in the Jupiter system. Surface sputtering by magnetospheric plasma generates a tenuous atmosphere for Europa, dominated by 02 gas. This tenuous gas is in turn excited by plasma electrons, producing ultraviolet and visible emissions. Two sets of imaging observations have been published to date, UV images from the Hubble Space Telescope, and visible eclipse images from Cassini. Three additional sets of HST UV observations were acquired in February 2007, April 2007 and June 2009. The signal to noise ratio in these data are not high, however, given the paucity of data and its increasing importance in terms of planning for EJSM, we have attempted to extract as much new information as possible from these data. This talk will summarize our analysis to date, and discuss them in terms of existing models, which attempt to explain the image morphology either in terms of the underlying source production and loss processes, or in terms of the plasma interaction with the exosphere.

McGrath, Melissa↗

NASA NTRS1994

Observational studies of the clearing phase in proto-planetary disk systems

A summary of the work completed during the first year of a 5 year program to observationally study the clearing phase of proto-planetary disks is presented. Analysis of archival and current IUE data, together with supporting optical observations has resulted in the identification of 6 new proto-planetary disk systems associated with Herbig Ae/Be stars, the evolutionary precursors of the beta Pictoris system. These systems exhibit large amplitude light and optical color variations which enable us to identify additional systems which are viewed through their circumstellar disks including a number of classical T Tauri stars. On-going IUE observations of Herbig Ae/Be and T Tauri stars with this orientation have enabled us to detect bipolar emission plausibly associated with disk winds. Preliminary circumstellar extinction studies were completed for one star, UX Ori. Intercomparison of the available sample of edge-on systems, with stars ranging from 1-6 solar masses, suggests that the signatures of accreting gas, disk winds, and bipolar flows and the prominence of a dust-scattered light contribution to the integrated light of the system decreases with decreasing IR excess.

Grady, Carol A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Simulation of the Impact of New Aircraft-and Satellite-based Ocean Surface Wind Measurements on Wind Analyses and Numerical Forecasts

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor for hurricane observations that is currently under development by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida and the University of Michigan. HIRAD is being designed to enhance the realtime airborne ocean surface winds observation capabilities of NOAA and USAF Weather Squadron hurricane hunter aircraft currently using the operational airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR). Unlike SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track directly beneath the aircraft, HIRAD will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath (approx. 3 x the aircraft altitude). The present paper describes a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing instruments (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a detailed numerical model, and those results are used to construct H*Wind analyses, a product of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. Evaluations will be presented on the impact of the HIRAD instrument on H*Wind analyses, both in terms of adding it to the full suite of current measurements, as well as using it to replace instrument(s) that may not be functioning at the future time the HIRAD instrument is implemented. Also shown will be preliminary results of numerical weather prediction OSSEs in which the impact of the addition of HIRAD observations to the initial state on numerical forecasts of the hurricane intensity and structure is assessed.

Miller, TImothy↗

NASA NTRS2018

Addressing Usability for Discrete User Goals When Adding New Features to the Worldview Application

The Worldview (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/) application from NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) provides a low friction solution for users of different scientific backgrounds to access near real-time satellite imagery and data products. Worldview credits its successful growth by displaying new imagery from the Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), which has an increasing archive of 700+ products serving full-resolution satellite imagery from NASA's Earth observing fleet. NASA promotes the open sharing of all data with researchers, private industry, academia, and the general public. Worldview encourages this open data policy. Numerous general news publications feature Worldview for its unique imagery. Worldview also helps scholarly research in identifying field research locations, mapping thermal hotspots of active burning fires, and visualizing theoretical models of weather storm systems.

web application↗

NASA NTRS2000

Using TRMM Field Campaign Data for Assessing GEOS Forecast and Assimilation Products

The wealth of in-situ measurements gathered during Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) field campaigns over a wide range of tropical conditions constitute an important data source for evaluating the quality of global model forecasts and assimilated datasets. In this study we use selected observations of cloud microphysics and atmospheric sounding from TEFLUN-1998, SCEMEX-1998, and TRMMLBA-1999 to examine the assimilation and forecast fields produced by the operational GEOS-3 (Goddard Earth Observing System - version 3) global data assimilation system (DAS) and a new finite-volume DAS under development at the Data Assimilation Office. Additionally, TRMM field campaign measurements are used to verify the impact of assimilating rainfall and moisture data derived from TRMM Microwave Imager and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager instruments on the GEOS analysis. We will also explore issues concerning the 'error of representativeness' in using in-situ observations of quantities with large spatial and temporal variability such as precipitation for validating gridded global data products.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) New Observing Strategies (NOS) and NOS-Testbed (NOS-T)

With the advancement of space hardware technologies such as smaller spacecraft, component and instrument miniaturization and high performance space processors, and with the advancement of software technologies in artificial intelligence, big data analysis and autonomous decision making, Earth Science is looking at novel ways to observe phenomena that previously could not have been studied or would have been too expensive to study with traditional missions. In particular, the New Observing Strategies (NOS) component of the NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program aims at leveraging these novel technologies as well as low cost and easy access to space to acquire multi-temporal or simultaneous multi-angular, multi-locations, multi-resolution and multi-spectral observations that will provide better multi-source measurements and will build a more dynamic and comprehensive picture of Earth Science phenomena that need to be studied and analyzed. For applications such as water resources management, air quality monitoring, biodiversity studies or disaster management, NOS will integrate the use of small instruments, small spacecraft, constellations of spacecraft and networks of sensors to design new missions that will provide the necessary measurements to improve future forecast and science modeling systems.Measurement acquisition will therefore be approached as a system of systems rather than on a mission basis, and a system of this complexity should not be expected to work without full integration and experimental characterization. Although most of the individual technologies enabling to link and coordinate multi-source observations are more or less mature, a few technologies need to be developed and all of them need to be integrated and tested as a system. In order for this validation to occur, the AIST Program is developing the NOS Testbed that includes 3 main goals:1.Validate novel NOS technologies, independently and as a system2.Demonstrate novel distributed operations concepts3.Socialize new Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) and SensorWeb (SW) technologies and concepts to the science community by significantly retiring the risk of integrating these new technologies.The NOS Testbed will consist of multiple sensing nodes, simulated or actual, representing space, air and/or ground measurements, that are interconnected by a communications fabric (infrastructure that permits nodes to transmit and receive data between one another and interact with each other). Each node will be supported by hardware capabilities required to perform nodes monitoring and command & control, as well as intelligent "onboard" computing. The nodes will work together in a collaborative manner to demonstrate optimal science capabilities. The testbed will enable to validate technologies such as inter-node communication models, techniques and protocols; inter-node coordination; real-time data fusion and understanding; planning; sensor re-targeting; etc. Additionally, the testbed will have the capability to interact with various mission design tools, OSSEs and one or several forecast models. More details about the NOS Testbed will be presented at the confererence.

Earth Science missions; Advanced information Syste↗

NASA NTRS2011

Influence of Dust and Black Carbon on the Snow Albedo in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 Land Surface Model

Present-day land surface models rarely account for the influence of both black carbon and dust in the snow on the snow albedo. Snow impurities increase the absorption of incoming shortwave radiation (particularly in the visible bands), whereby they have major consequences for the evolution of snowmelt and life cycles of snowpack. A new parameterization of these snow impurities was included in the catchment-based land surface model used in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Earth Observing System version 5. Validation tests against in situ observed data were performed for the winter of 2003.2004 in Sapporo, Japan, for both the new snow albedo parameterization (which explicitly accounts for snow impurities) and the preexisting baseline albedo parameterization (which does not). Validation tests reveal that daily variations of snow depth and snow surface albedo are more realistically simulated with the new parameterization. Reasonable perturbations in the assigned snow impurity concentrations, as inferred from the observational data, produce significant changes in snowpack depth and radiative flux interactions. These findings illustrate the importance of parameterizing the influence of snow impurities on the snow surface albedo for proper simulation of the life cycle of snow cover.

Yasunari, Teppei J.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Terrestrial record of the solar system's oscillation about the galactic plane

A new study is presented of the observational evidence pertaining to the theory which attributes the episodic component of the earth's impact cratering record over the past 600 Myr to gravitational encounters between the solar system and interstellar clouds that cause comets to fall into the solar system and impact the earth. Contrary to a claim by Thaddeus and Chanan (1985), the vertical scale height of the clouds seems to be sufficently small and the sun's vertical trajectory sufficiently large for the modulating effect of the sun's galactovertical motion to be detectable in the terrestrial record of impact cratering with at least a 50 percent a priori probability.

Stothers, R. B.↗