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Model of climate evolution based on continental drift and polar wandering

The thermodynamic meteorologic model of Adem is used to trace the evolution of climate from Triassic to present time by applying it to changing geography as described by continental drift and polar wandering. Results show that the gross changes of climate in the Northern Hemisphere can be fully explained by the strong cooling in high latitudes as continents moved poleward. High-latitude mean temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere dropped below the freezing point 10 to 15 m.y. ago, thereby accounting for the late Cenozoic glacial age. Computed meridional temperature gradients for the Northern Hemisphere steepened from 20 to 40 C over the 200-m.y. period, an effect caused primarily by the high-latitude temperature decrease. The primary result of the work is that the cooling that has occurred since the warm Mesozoic period and has culminated in glaciation is explainable wholly by terrestrial processes.

Donn, W. L.↗

Particle precipitation in the South Atlantic geomagnetic anomaly

A simple model of the motion of charged particles in the closed-field-line magnetic field for L less than about 4.5 is used together with Injun 3 measurements of 40-keV precipitated electrons made in the northern hemisphere to estimate theoretically the extent of electron precipitation, the energy input, and the 3914-A airglow in the South Atlantic geomagnetic anomaly. Using average values of the northern hemisphere precipitated electron flux, two regions of significantly enhanced electron precipitation are found in the southern hemisphere. The results show a gradual increase in precipitation for near sunspot minimum conditions on the western side of the anomaly followed by a rapid increase and sudden cut-off in precipitation within a few degrees west of minimum B. The flux on L = 2 reaches a spike in the southern hemisphere about 35 times greater than the average flux precipitated on L = 2 in the northern hemisphere. This increase in precipitation arises from the loss of trapped particles to the atmosphere where the mirror heights are lowest.

Torr, D. G.↗

Theoretical Accuracy of Global Snow-Cover Mapping Using Satellite Data in the Earth Observing System (EOS) Era

Following the launch of the Earth Observing System first morning (EOS-AM1) satellite, daily, global snow-cover mapping will be performed automatically at a spatial resolution of 500 m, cloud-cover permitting, using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. A technique to calculate theoretical accuracy of the MODIS-derived snow maps is presented. Field studies demonstrate that under cloud-free conditions when snow cover is complete, snow-mapping errors are small (less than 1%) in all land covers studied except forests where errors are greater and more variable. The theoretical accuracy of MODIS snow-cover maps is largely determined by percent forest cover north of the snowline. Using the 17-class International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) land-cover maps of North America and Eurasia, the Northern Hemisphere is classified into seven land-cover classes and water. Snow-mapping errors estimated for each of the seven land-cover classes are extrapolated to the entire Northern Hemisphere for areas north of the average continental snowline for each month. Average monthly errors for the Northern Hemisphere are expected to range from 5 - 10%, and the theoretical accuracy of the future global snow-cover maps is 92% or higher. Error estimates will be refined after the first full year that MODIS data are available.

Hall, D. K.↗

Periodic analysis of total ozone and its vertical distribution

Both total ozone and vertical distribution ozone data from the period 1957 to 1972 are analyzed. For total ozone, improved monthly zonal means for both hemispheres are computed by weighting individual station monthly means by a factor which compensates for the close grouping of stations in certain regions of latitude bands. Longitudinal variability show maxima in summer in both hemispheres, but, in winter, only in the Northern Hemisphere. The geographical distributions of the long term mean, and the annual, quasibiennial and semiannual waves in total ozone over the Northern Hemisphere are presented. The extratropical amplitude of the annual wave is by far the largest of the three, as much as 120 m atm cm over northern Siberia. There is a tendency for all three waves to have maxima in high latitudes. Monthly means of the vertical distribution of ozone determined from 3 to 8 years of ozonesonde data over North America are presented. Number density is highest in the Arctic near 18 km. The region of maximum number density slopes upward toward 10 N, where the long term mean is 45 x 10 to the 11th power molecules cm/3 near 26 km.

Wilcox, R. W.↗

Corotating Birkeland currents in Jupiter's magnetosphere - An Io plasma-torus source

It is proposed that a persistent longitudinally asymmetric pattern of Birkeland (magnetic-field aligned) currents flow between the Jovian ionosphere and the plasma torus that encircles Jupiter near Io's orbit. A specific longitudinal sector of the torus (i.e., the active sector) contains more plasma and is therefore more massive than the rest of the torus. This asymmetry causes Birkeland currents to flow between Jupiter's ionosphere and the torus. The principal currents are confined to the longitude range of the active sector; an upper limit to their magnitude is approximately 5,000,000 A. Current flows upward from the ionosphere in the longitude range = 290 + or - 30 deg at the torus, which maps down the magnetic field lines in the northern hemisphere to a longitude range between 215 and 300 deg. Similarly, the downward Birkeland current, which flows between 230 + or - 30 deg at the torus, maps down to a longitude range within 180 and 215 deg at ionospheric heights in the northern hemisphere. The model also contains a possible weaker source in the southern hemisphere, removed approximately 180 deg in longitude from the primary northern-hemisphere source.

Dessler, A. J.↗

A Global Climatology of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Ozone Derived from Aura OMI and MLS Measurements

A global climatology of tropospheric and stratospheric column ozone is derived by combining six years of Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone measurements for the period October 2004 through December 2010. The OMI/MLS tropospheric ozone climatology exhibits large temporal and spatial variability which includes ozone accumulation zones in the tropical south Atlantic year-round and in the subtropical Mediterranean! Asia region in summer months. High levels of tropospheric ozone in the northern hemisphere also persist in mid-latitudes over the eastern North American and Asian continents extending eastward over the Pacific Ocean. For stratospheric ozone climatology from MLS, largest ozone abundance lies in the northern hemisphere in the latitude range 70degN-80degN in February-April and in the southern hemisphere around 40degS-50degS during months August-October. The largest stratospheric ozone abundances in the northern hemisphere lie over North America and eastern Asia extending eastward across the Pacific Ocean and in the southern hemisphere south of Australia extending eastward across the dateline. With the advent of many newly developing 3D chemistry and transport models it is advantageous to have such a dataset for evaluating the performance of the models in relation to dynamical and photochemical processes controlling the ozone distributions in the troposphere and stratosphere.

Ziemke, J.R.↗

Boreal Winter Predictions with the GEOS-2 GCM: The Role of Boundary Forcing and Initial Conditions

Ensembles of atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) seasonal forecasts and long-term simulations (1980-94) are analyzed to assess the controlling influences of boundary forcing and memory of the initial conditions. Both the forecasts and simulations are carried out with version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-2) GCM forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). While much of the focus is on the seasonal time scale (January- March) and the Pacific North American (PNA) region, we also present results for other regions, shorter time scales, and other known modes of variability in the northern hemisphere extratropics. Forecasts of indices of some of the key large-scale modes of variability show that there is considerable variability in skill between different regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The eastern North Atlantic region has the poorest long lead forecast skill showing no skill beyond about 10 days. Skillful seasonal forecasts are primarily confined to the wave-like ENSO response emanating from the tropical Pacific. In the Northern Hemisphere, this is associated with the well-known Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern. Memory of the initial conditions is the major factor leading to skillful extratropical forecasts of lead time less than one month, while SST forcing is the only factor at the seasonal time scale. SST forcing contributes to skillful forecasts at sub- seasonal time scales only over the PNA region. The GEOS-2 GCM produces average (1980-94) signal to noise ratios which are less than one everywhere in the extratropics, except for the subtropical Pacific where they approach 1.5. When confined to the ENSO years, the maximum signal to noise ratios occur in the PNA region where they exceed three. An assessment of the sampling distribution of the forecasts suggests the model's ENSO response is very likely too weak. These results show some sensitivity to the uncertainties in the estimates of the SST forcing fields. In the North Pacific region, the sensitivity to SST forcing manifests itself primarily as changes in the variability of the PNA response, underscoring the need for an ensemble approach to the seasonal prediction problem.

Chang, Yehui↗

Variations of total ozone in the north polar region as seen by TOMS

Data from the TOMS instrument has been used to follow the course of development of the Antarctic ozone springtime minimum since 1979. Addressed is the question of possible north polar region changes which might be deduced from the nine years of TOMS measurements of total ozone. Total ozone is a much more variable quantity in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. This makes the search for trends more difficult and the interpretation of results more uncertain. The 9-yr time series of TOMS data at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere is examined. Because the TOMS measurements have drifted by 3 to 4 percent with respect to closely collocated Dobson measurements, it was chosen in this study to adopt the Dobson normalization and adjust the TOMS measurements accordingly. The difference between the last two years (1986 and 1987) of the TOMS record, and the first two years of the record (1979 and 1980) are shown. The difference in percent is given as a function of latitude and time of year. The Antarctic springtime decrease is clearly seen as well as a smaller change which extends to about 50 degrees south latitude at all seasons. Changes in the Northern Hemisphere are less dramatic and are concentrated near the polar night where solar zenith angles are very large. These data are now being examined in more detail and updated results will be presented at the Workshop.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

Global and Regional Decreases in Tropospheric Oxidants from Photochemical Effects of Aerosols

We evaluate the sensitivity of tropospheric OH, O3, and O3 precursors to photochemical effects of aerosols not usually included in global models: (1) aerosol scattering and absorption of ultraviolet radiation and (2) reactive uptake of HO', NO2, and NO3. Our approach is to couple a global 3-D model of tropospheric chemistry (GEOS- CHEM) with aerosol fields from a global 3-D aerosol model (GOCART). Reactive uptake by aerosols is computed using reaction probabilities from a recent review (gamma(sub HO2) = 0.2, gamma(sub NO2) = 10(exp -4), gamma(sub NO3) = l0(exp -3). Aerosols decrease the O3 - O((sup 1)D) photolysis frequency by 5-20% at the surface throughout the Northern Hemisphere (largely due to mineral dust) and by a factor of 2 in biomass burning regions (largely due to black carbon). Aerosol uptake of HO2 accounts for 10-40% of total HOx radical ((triple bonds)OH + peroxy) loss in the boundary layer over polluted continental regions (largely due to sulfate and organic carbon) and for more than 70% over tropical biomass burning regions (largely due to organic carbon). Uptake of NO2 and NO3 accounts for 10-20% of total HNO3 production over biomass burning regions and less elsewhere. Annual mean OH concentrations decrease by 9% globally and by 5-35% in the boundary layer over the Northern Hemisphere. Simulated CO increases by 5- 15 ppbv in the remote Northern Hemisphere, improving agreement with observations. Simulated boundary layer O3 decreases by 15- 45 ppbv over India during the biomass burning season in March and by 5-9 ppbv over northern Europe in August, again improving comparison with observations. We find that particulate matter controls would increase surface O3 over Europe and other industrial regions.

Martin, Randall V.↗

Diurnal variation of galactic cosmic ray intensity on quiet days

A detailed study of the diurnal variation on long term basis was performed on geomagnetically quiet days using the experimental data of the cosmic ray intensity from the worldwide neutron monitoring stations. During the period when the polarity of the solar magnetic field in the Northern Hemisphere of the sun is negative the phase and amplitude of the diurnal anisotropy on quiet days was observed to remain almost constant. When the polarity of solar magnetic field in the Northern Hemisphere changes from negative to positive, a shift in the phase of the diurnal anisotropy on quiet days towards earlier hours is observed and the shift is found to be maximum during minimum solar activity periods 1953-54 and 1975-76. When the polarity of solar magnetic field changes from positive to negative in the Northern Hemisphere of the Sun the phase of the diurnal anisotropy on quiet days recovers to its usual direction of corotational anisotropy and is observed to remain almost constant till the polarity of the solar magnetic field does not change.

Kumar, S.↗

Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)

The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6°C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.

Last Interglacial climate↗

Simulations of the monthly mean atmosphere for February 1976 with the GISS model

Three monthly mean simulations of the global atmosphere were computed for February 1976 with the GISS model from observed initial conditions on the first day of the month. In a replication experiment, two of these computations generated slightly different monthly mean states, apparently due to the schedule of interruptions on the computer. The root-mean-square errors of replication over the Northern Hemisphere were found to be about 2 mb, 20 m and 1 K for sea level pressure, 500 mb height and 850 mb temperature, respectively. The monthly mean 500 mb forecast results for February 1976 over the Northern Hemisphere are consistent with those from earlier GISS model experiments and again indicate some predictive skill at that level. Use of the observed monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) field for February 1976 in place of the climatological SST field for February resulted in slightly improved simulations over the globe and Northern Hemisphere,

Spar, J.↗

Distribution of flares on the sun - Superactive regions and active zones of 1980-1985

The author analyzed coordinates of energetic solar flares observed with the hard X-ray burst spectrometer during the period from February 1980 through August 1985. A small number of 'superactive regions' produced the majority of the major flares during this period. There exist active zones, in which the flare occurrence rate is much higher. Two active zones are in the northern hemisphere, and two are in the southern hemisphere. The longitudinal separation of the two active zones in the same hemisphere is about 180 deg, but tha active zones of the southern hemisphere are misaligned from those of the northern hemisphere by about 80 deg. The rotation period of the active zones is 26.75 d. Active zones last several years or longer. There is a hint of active centers rotating at a period of 23.7 d.

Bai, Taeil↗

Multiannual simulations with the Mars climate model

The martian atmospheric circulaton for 10 Mars years was simulated using a simplified three-dimensional climate model that is briefly described below. Analysis of these simulations reveals several interesting behaviors not previously recognized in other three-dimensional models. The first concerns the potential for interannual variability in the martian climate system. It is now known from the aperiodic frequency of planet-encircling storms, as well as differences in atmospheric water vapor from one year to the next, that the real planet exhibits interannual variations. The results of our simulations also show significant interannual variability and, interestingly, that variability maximizes during southern spring, the dust storm season. A second and related finding is that transient eddies in the southern hemisphere during winter are indeed weaker than their northern hemisphere counterparts as was found in more sophisticated models. However, southern hemisphere eddy activity rises dramatically during spring and is greater than that in the northern hemisphere at any season.

Haberle, R. M.↗

Hydrogen Cyanide in the Upper Troposphere: GEM-AQ Simulation and Comparison with ACE-FTS Observations

We investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of hydrogen cyanide (HCN) in the upper troposphere through numerical simulations and comparison with observations from a space-based instrument. To perform the simulations, we used the Global Environmental Multiscale Air Quality model (GEM-AQ), which is based on the threedimensional Gobal multiscale model developed by the Meteorological Service of Canada for operational weather forecasting. The model was run for the period 2004-2006 on a 1.5deg x 1.5deg global grid with 28 hybrid vertical levels from the surface up to 10 hPa. Objective analysis data from the Canadian Meteorological Centre were used to update the meteorological fields every 24 h. Fire emission fluxes of gas species were generated by using year-specific inventories of carbon emissions with 8-day temporal resolution from the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED) version 2. The model output is compared with HCN profiles measured by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) instrument onboard the Canadian SCISAT-1 satellite. High values of up to a few ppbv are observed in the tropics in the Southern Hemisphere; the enhancement in HCN volume mixing ratios in the upper troposphere is most prominent in October. Low upper-tropospheric mixing ratios of less than 100 pptv are mostly recorded at middle and high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere in May-July. Mixing ratios in Northern Hemisphere peak in the boreal summer. The amplitude of the seasonal variation is less pronounced than in the Southern Hemisphere. The comparison with the satellite data shows that in the upper troposphere GEM-AQ perform7s well globally for all seasons, except at northern hi gh and middle latitudes in surnmer, where the model has a large negative bias, and in the tropics in winter and spring, where it exhibits large positive bias. This may reflect inaccurate emissions or possible inaccuracies in the emission profile. The model is able to explain most of the observed variability in the upper troposphere HCN field, includin g the interannual variations in the observed mixing ratio. A complementary comparison with daily total columns of HCN from two middle latitude ground-based stations in Northern Japan for the same simulation period shows that the model captures the observed seasonal variation and also points to an underestimation of model emissions in the Northern Hemisphere in the summer. The estimated average global emission equals 1.3 Tg N/yr. The average atmospheric burden is 0.53 Tg N, and the corresponding lifetime is 4.9 months.

Lupu, A.↗

Europa's Northern Trailing Hemisphere: Lineament Stratigraphic Framework

Knowledge of the global distribution of Europan geologic units in time and space is a necessary step for the synthesis of the results of the Galileo mission and in preparation for future exploration (namely, by JIMO) of the satellite. We have initiated the production of the first Global Geological Map of Europa. As a base map, we use the recently published global photomosaic of Europa (U.S.G.S. Map I-2757) and additional Galileo SSI images at their original resolution. The map is being produced entirely on GIS format for analysis and combination with other datasets [1]. One of the main objectives of this project is to establish a global stratigraphic framework for Europa. In the absence of a well-developed cratering record, this goal will be achieved using the satellite s global network of lineaments (ridges, ridge complexes and bands; cf. [2]). Here we present the preliminary stratigraphic framework synthesized from the sequence of lineaments derived for the northern trailing hemisphere of Europa (Figure 1, below), and we discuss its significance and some emerging implications.

Figueredo, P. H.↗

Intraseasonal oscillations in the global atmosphere. II - Southern Hemisphere

A systematic examination of oscillatory modes in the global atmosphere is completed by studying 12 years of 500 mb geopotential heights in the Southern Hemisphere. The data were band-pass filtered to focus on intraseasonal (IS) phenomena, and spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) were obtained. The leading principal components were subjected to singular spectrum analysis in order to identify nonlinear IS oscillations with high statistical confidence. In the Southern Hemisphere, the dominant mode has a period of 23 days, with spatial patterns carried by the second and third winter EOF of the IS band. It has a zonal wavenumber-four structure. The 40-day mode is second, and is dominated by wavenumbers three and four, while a 16-day mode is too weak to separate its spatial behavior from the previous two. The IS dynamics in the Southern Hemisphere is more complex and dominated by shorter wavenumbers than the Northern Hemisphere. No statistically significant correlations between the Southern Hemisphere and the tropics or the Northern Hemisphere are apparent in the IS band.

Ghil, Michael↗

Preliminary Global Topographic Model of Mars Based on MOLA Altimetry, Earth-Based Radar, and Viking, Mariner and MGS Occultations

The recent altimetry data acquired by MOLA over the northern hemisphere of Mars have been combined with the Earth-based radar data obtained between 1971 and 1982, and occultation measurements of the Viking 1 and 2 Orbiters, Mariner 9, and MGS to derive a global model of the shape and topography of Mars. This preliminary model has a horizontal resolution of about 300 km. Vertical accuracy is on average a few hundred meters in the region of the data. Datasets: The altimetry and radar datasets were individually binned in 1.25 degree grids and merged with the occultation data. The Viking and Mariner occultation data in the northern hemisphere were excluded from the combined dataset where MOLA altimetry were available. The laser altimetry provided extensive and almost complete coverage of the northern hemisphere north of latitude 30 while the radar provided longitudinal coverage at several latitude bands between 23N and 23S. South of this region the only data were occultations. The majority of the occultations were obtained from Mariner 9, and the rest from Viking 1 & 2, and MGS. Earlier studies had shown that the Viking and Mariner occultations were on average only accurate to 500 meters. The recent MGS occultations are accurate to a few tens of meters. However, the highest southern latitude reached by the MGS occultations is only about 64S and data near the target region for the Mars 98 lander is limited to a few Viking and Mariner observations of relatively poor quality. In addition to the above datasets the locations of the Viking 1, Viking 2, and Pathfinder landers, obtained from the radio tracking of their signals, were included.

Smith, David E.↗