Cassini risk management during mission operations and data analysis - application and lessons learned
This paper will detail some of the key challenges faced while introducing risk management to the mission operations team.
risk management Cassini↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Applying Required Navigation Performance Concept for Traffic Management of Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems
In anticipation of a rapid increase in the number of civil Unmanned Aircraft System(UAS) operations, NASA is researching prototype technologies for a UAS Traffic Management (UTM) system that will investigate airspace integration requirements for enabling safe, efficient low-altitude operations. One aspect a UTM system must consider is the correlation between UAS operations (such as vehicles, operation areas and durations), UAS performance requirements, and the risk to people and property in the operational area. This paper investigates the potential application of the International Civil Aviation Organizations (ICAO) Required Navigation Performance (RNP) concept to relate operational risk with trajectory conformance requirements. The approach is to first define a method to quantify operational risk and then define the RNP level requirement as a function of the operational risk. Greater operational risk corresponds to more accurate RNP level, or smaller tolerable Total System Error (TSE). Data from 19 small UAS flights are used to develop and validate a formula that defines this relationship. An approach to assessing UAS-RNP conformance capability using vehicle modeling and wind field simulation is developed to investigate how this formula may be applied in a future UTM system. The results indicate the modeled vehicles flight path is robust to the simulated wind variation, and it can meet RNP level requirements calculated by the formula. The results also indicate how vehicle-modeling fidelity may be improved to adequately verify assessed RNP level.
required navigation performance↗
Summary Report of Ecological Risk Assessment for the Operation of the Explosives Waste Treatment Facility at Site 300 of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
An ecological risk assessment is required as part of the Resource Recovery and Conservation Act (RCRA) permit renewal process for Miscellaneous Units subject to 22 CCR 66270.23. This risk assessment is prepared in support of the RCRA permit renewal for the Explosives Waste Treatment Facility (EWTF) at Site 300 of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). LLNL collected soil samples and used the resulting data to produce a scoping-level ecological risk assessment pursuant to the Department of Toxic Substances Control, Guidance for Ecological Risk Assessment at Hazardous Waste Sites and Permitted Facilities, Part A: Overview, July 4, 1996. The scoping-level ecological risk assessment provides a framework to determine the potential interaction between ecological receptors and chemicals of concern from hazardous waste treatment operations in the area of EWTF. A scoping-level ecological risk assessment includes the step of conducting soil sampling in the area of the treatment units. The Sampling Plan in Support of the Human Health and Ecological Risk Assessment for the Operation of the Explosives Waste Treatment Facility at Site 300 of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, (Terusaki, 2007), outlines the EWTF project-specific soil sampling requirements. Soil samples were obtained and analyzed for constituents from four chemical groups: furans, explosives, semi-volatiles and metals. Analytical results showed that furans, explosives and semi-volatiles were not detected; therefore, no further analysis was conducted. The soil samples did show the presence of metals. Soil samples analyzed for metals were compared to site-wide background levels, which had been developed for site -wide cleanup activities pursuant to the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). Total metal concentrations from 28 discrete soil samples obtained in the EWTF area were all below CERCLA-developed background levels. Therefore, following DTSC 1996 guidance, the EWTF hazardous waste treatment units exit the ecological risk evaluation process upon completion of the requirements of a scoping-level assessment report. This summary report documents that the requirements of a scoping-level assessment have been met.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Space shuttle/payload interface analysis. Volume 4: Business Risk and Value of Operations in Space (BRAVO). Part 1: Summary
Background information is provided which emphasizes the philosophy behind analytical techniques used in the business risk and value of operations in space (BRAVO) study. The focus of the summary is on the general approach, operation of the procedures, and the status of the study. For Vol. 1, see N74-12493; for Vol. 2, see N74-14530.
Source record↗
Risk reduction methodologies and technologies for the Earth Observing System (EOS) Operations Center (EOC)
This paper will discuss proposed Flight Operations methodologies and technologies for the Earth Observing System (EOS) Operations Center (EOC), to reduce risks associated with the operation of complex multi-instrument spacecraft in a multi-spacecraft environment. The EOC goals are to obtain 100 percent science data capture and maintain 100 percent spacecraft health, for each EOS spacecraft. Operations risks to the spacecraft and data loss due to operator command error, mission degradation due to mis-identification of an anomalous trend in component performance or mis-management of resources, and total mission loss due to improper subsystem configuration or mis-identification of an anomalous condition. This paper discusses automation of routine Flight Operations Team (FOT) responsibilities, Expert systems for real-time non-nominal condition decision support, and Telemetry analysis systems for in-depth playback data analysis and trending.
Hudson, Richard K.↗
Performance Risk Model Validation with Operationally Relevant Tasks
Human Research Program aims to develop methods to support astronauts’ health and productivity during spaceflight. The Crew Health and Performance Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA) team uses powerful computational methods to predict mission risk in both domains: medical and performance. Here, we show how CHP-PRA uses the Performance Risk Model (PRisM) to quantify the performance risk and show an application of the model on operationally relevant tasks. There are various metrics adopted across performance researchers that PRisM can accommodate. For data analysis, interpretation, and integration, we use a method of unifying data from multiple sources by converting each to a single metric. We consult subject matter experts prior to integrating the converted data into PRisM. The method we use is inspired by the Cooper-Harper rating scale [1]. Using this unified metric, we can easily combine data from various tests and lab groups. We explain our conversion method in detail and show how it pertains to the process of testing and validation of PRisM on operational tasks. We conducted an initial validation in collaboration with the Behavioral Health and Performance (BHP) lab. We test PRisM using data on their operationally relevant task ROBoT-r, a track-and-capture task for grappling incoming resupply vehicles [2]. Several other labs at NASA Johnson Space Center worked together to design 7 Functional Task Tests (FTTs) in pursuit of simulating the tasks required after landing on a planetary surface and after return to Earth [3]. Here we use the results from both ROBoT-r and the 7 FTTs and compare their experiment data to PRisM’s computational output to demonstrate how PRisM can support operations by predicting crew performance on future missions.
performance modeling↗
Risk Management Technique for design and operation of facilities and equipment
The Risk Management System collects information from engineering, operating, and management personnel to identify potentially hazardous conditions. This information is used in risk analysis, problem resolution, and contingency planning. The resulting hazard accountability system enables management to monitor all identified hazards. Data from this system are examined in project reviews so that management can decide to eliminate or accept these risks. This technique is particularly effective in improving the management of risks in large, complex, high-energy facilities. These improvements are needed for increased cooperation among industry, regulatory agencies, and the public.
Fedor, O. H.↗
Cassini risk management during mission operations and data analysis - application and lessons learned
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risk management Cassini↗
Meteoroid Bulk Density and Ceplecha Types
Determination of asteroid bulk density is an important aspect of NEO characterization, yet difficult to measure. As a fraction of meteoroids originate from asteroids (including some NEOs), a study of meteoroid bulk densities can potentially provide useful insights into the densities of NEOs and PHOs in lieu of mutual perturbations, satellite, or expensive spacecraft missions. NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office characterizes the meteoroid environment for the purpose of spacecraft risk and operations. To accurately determine the risk, a distribution of meteoroid bulk densities are needed. This is not trivial to determine. If the particle survives to the ground the bulk density can be directly measured, however only the most dense particles land on the Earth. The next best approach is to model the meteor's ablation, which is not straightforward. Clear deceleration is necessary to do this and there are discrepancies in results between models. One approach to a distribution of bulk density is to use a measured proxy for the densities, then calibrate the proxy with known densities from meteorite falls, ablation modelling, and other sources. An obvious proxy choice is the Ceplecha type, K(sub B), thought to indicate the strength of a meteoroid. KB is frequented cited as a good proxy for meteoroid densities, but we find it is poorly correlated with density. However, a distinct split by dynamical type was seen with Jovian Tisserand parameter, T(sub J), with meteoroids from Halley Type comets (T(sub J less than 2 ) exhibiting much lower densities than those originating from Jupiter and asteroids (T(sub J greater than 2).
Blaauw, R. C.↗
Current and Future Impact Risks from Small Debris to Operational Satellites
The collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 in 2009 signaled the potential onset of the collision cascade effect, commonly known as the "Kessler Syndrome", in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region. Recent numerical simulations have shown that the 10 cm and larger debris population in LEO will continue to increase even with a good implementation of the commonly-adopted mitigation measures. This increase is driven by collisions involving large and massive intacts, i.e., rocket bodies and spacecraft. Therefore, active debris removal (ADR) of large and massive intacts with high collision probabilities has been argued as a direct and effective means to remediate the environment in LEO. The major risk for operational satellites in the environment, however, comes from impacts with debris just above the threshold of the protection shields. In general, these are debris in the millimeter to centimeter size regime. Although impacts by these objects are insufficient to lead to catastrophic breakup of the entire vehicle, the damage is certainly severe enough to cause critical failure of the key instruments or the entire payload. The focus of this paper is to estimate the impact risks from 5 mm and 1 cm debris to active payloads in LEO (1) in the current environment and (2) in the future environment based on different projection scenarios, including ADR. The goal of the study is to quantify the benefits of ADR in reducing debris impact risks to operational satellites.
Liou, Jer-Chyi↗
200-IA-1 Operable Unit Human Health Risk and Kd Screen
The purpose of this environmental calculation file (ECF) is to provide the following: Document the data processing and data reduction steps taken to prepare the 200-IA-1 Operable Unit (OU) data set that will be used to calculate the sample-specific screening level human health risk evaluation; Document the data processing and data reduction steps taken to prepare the 200-IA-1 OU data set that will be used to identify analytes that could potentially impact groundwater in the future beneath the 200-IA-1 OU representative waste sites; Document the assumptions, equations, and methodologies used to calculate the screening levels for human health cancer risks and noncancer hazards for each representative waste site assigned to the 200-IA-1 OU. Individual measured soil concentrations from 0 to 4.6 m (15 ft) below ground surface (bgs) (shallow vadose zone) are used to calculate the total excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR) and hazard index (HI) for the outdoor worker scenario to determine if there is a basis for remedial action. Individual measured soil concentrations from the ground surface to the groundwater table are used for the distribution coefficient (Kd) screen to identify analytes that could potentially impact groundwater in the future beneath the 200-IA-1 OU representative waste sites. This ECF supports DOE/RL-2020-51, 200-IA-1 OU Focused Feasibility Study, under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA). A risk characterization based upon the evaluation of the health risk estimates developed in this ECF will be presented in the focused feasibility study report.
63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
On the Low Risk of SSR in Type III Wind Turbines Operating in Grid-Forming Control: Preprint
We have shown in a previous work that the risk of sub-synchronous resonance (SSR) between a wind power plant with Type III wind turbines and series-compensated transmission lines is low when the wind turbines in the plant are operated in grid-forming mode, instead of the standard grid-following mode. The fundamental mechanism behind the improved damping characteristics is explained in this paper by modeling the positive and negative sequence impedances of Type III wind turbines for GFM operation mode. It is discovered that the GFM control naturally acts against the negative resistance of Type III wind turbines that results from an interaction between the proportional gain of the rotor-side converter current controller and negative slip. The developed sequence impedance models and improved damping behavior are verified using PSCAD simulations of a 2.5-MW Type III GFM wind turbine. The modeling predictions are also supported by experimentally measuring the sequence impedance response of a 2.5-MW Type III wind turbine during operation in GFL and GFM modes.
grid-following turbine↗
NASA’s EGS Program Technology Demonstrations and Risk Reduction for Sustainable Surface Operations
This paper discusses NASA’s Exploration Ground Systems (EGS) Program Technology Infusion Strategy and the results from EGS technology demonstration projects, including Integrated Health Management capabilities for Condition Based and Predictive Maintenance, conservation of cryogenic fluids, and logistics management/commonality of maintenance equipment, tools, and consumables. The paper also discusses how technologies and capabilities implemented for ground systems (i.e. automated/autonomous operations and maintenance) can be leveraged to help reduce risk for sustainable lunar surface operations.
Launch Processing↗
NASA’s Exploration Ground Systems Program: Technology Demonstrations and Risk Reduction for Sustainable Surface Operations
This presentation discusses NASA’s Exploration Ground Systems (EGS) Program Technology Infusion Strategy and the results from EGS technology demonstration projects, including Integrated Health Management capabilities for Condition Based and Predictive Maintenance, conservation of cryogenic fluids, and logistics management/commonality of maintenance equipment, tools, and consumables. The presentation also discusses how technologies and capabilities implemented for ground systems (i.e. automated/ autonomous operations and maintenance) can be leveraged to help reduce risk for sustainable lunar surface operations.
Technology Infusion↗
Management of Risks Associated with Application of Novel Materials in Novel Operating Environments in Novel Reactor Designs
There is currently no widely agreed, detailed general method for licensing a novel plant incorporating novel materials (or materials being deployed in novel environments); in many such situations, there are no directly applicable engineering code cases for decision-makers (including regulators) to rely on. This paper discusses a framework for solving this problem that is based on the Reliability and Integrity Management (RIM) approach delineated in ASME BPVC Section XI Division 2. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.246, Rev. 0, endorses, with conditions, the subject portion of the ASME Code. The proposed framework is meant to support development of a licensing case by addressing certain technical challenges. The framework discussed here is compatible with the Licensing Modernization Project, but applying it in a specific case will call for advances in the state of practice, if not the state of the art. The RIM approach calls for applicants to (a) allocate reliability targets to plant structures, systems, and components (SSCs), (b) show that they are able to relate the currently observed physical condition of each SSC in the program to its failure probability well enough to determine whether the target reliability allocations are being satisfied, allowing for uncertainty related to the novelty of the materials/designs/operating environments, and (c) be able to demonstrate that the proposed program of surveillances will reliably detect unacceptable degradation of an SSC before SSC failure occurs. These challenges are discussed in the paper, and a potentially applicable modeling approach based on cumulative damage rather than failure rates is briefly illustrated.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
CO 2 Pipeline risk assessment and comparison for the midcontinent United States
For this work, a comprehensive quantitative risk assessment for the construction and operation of CO 2 transportation networks considered for the Midcontinent United States was conducted. The results showed risks associated with CO 2 pipelines were significantly less than those of other pipeline types. The assessment used four conceptual pipelines of different lengths to discuss risks operators may see. The assessment evaluated the risk associated with construction and operation using data from the US Occupational Safety Health Administration to determine the risk of injury or death for pipeline workers and data from the US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration for CO 2 , natural gas distribution, natural gas transmission/gathering, and non-CO 2 hazardous liquid pipelines to develop quantitative likelihood and severity values leading to risk values. The data for the assessment covered incidents from 2010 to 2017 for CO 2 pipelines. The average risk for construction and 30 years of operation for four CO 2 pipeline configurations ranging between 79 and 1,546 miles in length was found. The construction and operational risk averaged between $\$1,400,521$ (approximately $\$0.02$/tonne of CO 2 ) for the shorter pipeline (79 miles) and $\$27,481,939$ (approximately $\$0.10$/tonne of CO 2 ) for a longer pipeline (1,546 miles). The largest risks of fatality for CO 2 pipelines comes from vehicle transport. The largest operational risk to the pipeline was due to leakage. Public pipeline opposition is also a significant risk; it was not quantified but is addressed.
03 NATURAL GAS↗
Design and Testing of an Approach to Automated In-Flight Safety Risk Management for sUAS Operations
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safety management↗
Operational Considerations for Oxygen Flammability Risks: Concentrated Oxygen Diffusion and Permeation Behaviors
Increased human spaceflight operations utilize oxygen concentrations that are frequently varied with use of concentrations up to 100 percent oxygen. Even after exiting a higher percentage oxygen environment, high oxygen concentrations can still be maintained due to material saturation and oxygen entrapment between barrier materials. This paper examines the material flammability concerns that arise from changing oxygen environments during spaceflight operations. We examine the time required for common spacecraft and spacesuit materials exposed to oxygen to return to reduced ignitability and flammability once removed from the increased concentration. Various common spacecraft materials were considered: spacecraft cabin environment foams, Extra Vehicular Mobility Unit materials and foams, Advanced Crew Escape Suit materials, and other materials of interest such as Cotton, Nomex^ HT90-40, and Tiburon Surgical Drape. This paper presents calculated diffusion coefficients derived from experimentally obtained oxygen transmission rates for the tested materials and the analytically derived times necessary for reduced flammability to be achieved based on NASA flammability criteria. Oxygen material saturation and entrapment scenarios are examined. Experimental verification data on oxygen diffusion in saturation scenarios are also presented and discussed. We examine how to use obtained data to address flammability concerns during operational planning to reduce the likelihood of fires while improving efficiency for procedures.
Harper, Susana↗