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Results for “Optimization Under Uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13

Safety Ellipse Motion with Coarse Sun Angle Optimization

The Hubble Space Telescope Robotic Servicing and De-orbit Mission (HRSDM) was t o be performed by the unmanned Hubble Robotic Vehicle (HRV) consisting of a Deorbit Module (DM), responsible for the ultimate disposal of Hubble Space Telescope (HST) at the end of science operations, and an Ejection Module (EM), responsible for robotically servicing the HST to extend its useful operational lifetime. HRSDM consisted of eight distinct phases, including: launch, pursuit, proximity operations, capture, servicing, EM jettison and disposal, science operations, and deorbit. The scope of this paper is limited to the Proximity Operations phase of HRSDM. It introduces a relative motion strategy useful for Autonomous Rendezvous and Docking (AR&D) or Formation Flying missions where safe circumnavigation trajectories, or close proximity operations (tens or hundreds of meters) are required for extended periods of time. Parameters and algorithms used to model the relative motion of HRV with respect to HST during the Proximity Operations phase of the HRSDM are described. Specifically, the Safety Ellipse (SE) concept, convenient parameters for describing SE motion, and a concept for initializing SE motion around a target vehicle to coarsely optimize sun and relative navigation sensor angles are presented. The effects of solar incidence angle variations on sun angle optimization, and the effects of orbital perturbations and navigation uncertainty on long term SE motion are discussed.

Naasz, Bo↗

Revealing Relationships among Relevant Climate Variables with Information Theory

The primary objective of the NASA Earth-Sun Exploration Technology Office is to understand the observed Earth climate variability, thus enabling the determination and prediction of the climate's response to both natural and human-induced forcing. We are currently developing a suite of computational tools that will allow researchers to calculate, from data, a variety of information-theoretic quantities such as mutual information, which can be used to identify relationships among climate variables, and transfer entropy, which indicates the possibility of causal interactions. Our tools estimate these quantities along with their associated error bars, the latter of which is critical for describing the degree of uncertainty in the estimates. This work is based upon optimal binning techniques that we have developed for piecewise-constant, histogram-style models of the underlying density functions. Two useful side benefits have already been discovered. The first allows a researcher to determine whether there exist sufficient data to estimate the underlying probability density. The second permits one to determine an acceptable degree of round-off when compressing data for efficient transfer and storage. We also demonstrate how mutual information and transfer entropy can be applied so as to allow researchers not only to identify relations among climate variables, but also to characterize and quantify their possible causal interactions.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗

Optics Program Simplifies Analysis and Design

Engineers at Goddard Space Flight Center partnered with software experts at Mide Technology Corporation, of Medford, Massachusetts, through a Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contract to design the Disturbance-Optics-Controls-Structures (DOCS) Toolbox, a software suite for performing integrated modeling for multidisciplinary analysis and design. The DOCS Toolbox integrates various discipline models into a coupled process math model that can then predict system performance as a function of subsystem design parameters. The system can be optimized for performance; design parameters can be traded; parameter uncertainties can be propagated through the math model to develop error bounds on system predictions; and the model can be updated, based on component, subsystem, or system level data. The Toolbox also allows the definition of process parameters as explicit functions of the coupled model and includes a number of functions that analyze the coupled system model and provide for redesign. The product is being sold commercially by Nightsky Systems Inc., of Raleigh, North Carolina, a spinoff company that was formed by Mide specifically to market the DOCS Toolbox. Commercial applications include use by any contractors developing large space-based optical systems, including Lockheed Martin Corporation, The Boeing Company, and Northrup Grumman Corporation, as well as companies providing technical audit services, like General Dynamics Corporation

Source record↗

Method and system for detecting a failure or performance degradation in a dynamic system such as a flight vehicle

A method and system for detecting a failure or performance degradation in a dynamic system having sensors for measuring state variables and providing corresponding output signals in response to one or more system input signals are provided. The method includes calculating estimated gains of a filter and selecting an appropriate linear model for processing the output signals based on the input signals. The step of calculating utilizes one or more models of the dynamic system to obtain estimated signals. The method further includes calculating output error residuals based on the output signals and the estimated signals. The method also includes detecting one or more hypothesized failures or performance degradations of a component or subsystem of the dynamic system based on the error residuals. The step of calculating the estimated values is performed optimally with respect to one or more of: noise, uncertainty of parameters of the models and un-modeled dynamics of the dynamic system which may be a flight vehicle or financial market or modeled financial system.

Miller, Robert H.↗

Precipitation Model Validation in 3rd Generation Aeroturbine Disc Alloys

In support of application of the DARPA-AIM methodology to the accelerated hybrid thermal process optimization of 3rd generation aeroturbine disc alloys with quantified uncertainty, equilibrium and diffusion couple experiments have identified available fundamental thermodynamic and mobility databases of sufficient accuracy. Using coherent interfacial energies quantified by Single-Sensor DTA nucleation undercooling measurements, PrecipiCalc(TM) simulations of nonisothermal precipitation in both supersolvus and subsolvus treated samples show good agreement with measured gamma particle sizes and compositions. Observed longterm isothermal coarsening behavior defines requirements for further refinement of elastic misfit energy and treatment of the parallel evolution of incoherent precipitation at grain boundaries.

Olson, G. B.↗

Comparison of Test and Finite Element Analysis for Two Full-Scale Helicopter Crash Tests

Finite element analyses have been performed for two full-scale crash tests of an MD-500 helicopter. The first crash test was conducted to evaluate the performance of a composite deployable energy absorber under combined flight loads. In the second crash test, the energy absorber was removed to establish the baseline loads. The use of an energy absorbing device reduced the impact acceleration levels by a factor of three. Accelerations and kinematic data collected from the crash tests were compared to analytical results. Details of the full-scale crash tests and development of the system-integrated finite element model are briefly described along with direct comparisons of acceleration magnitudes and durations for the first full-scale crash test. Because load levels were significantly different between tests, models developed for the purposes of predicting the overall system response with external energy absorbers were not adequate under more severe conditions seen in the second crash test. Relative error comparisons were inadequate to guide model calibration. A newly developed model calibration approach that includes uncertainty estimation, parameter sensitivity, impact shape orthogonality, and numerical optimization was used for the second full-scale crash test. The calibrated parameter set reduced 2-norm prediction error by 51% but did not improve impact shape orthogonality.

Annett, Martin S.↗

Calibration of Airframe and Occupant Models for Two Full-Scale Rotorcraft Crash Tests

Two full-scale crash tests of an MD-500 helicopter were conducted in 2009 and 2010 at NASA Langley's Landing and Impact Research Facility in support of NASA s Subsonic Rotary Wing Crashworthiness Project. The first crash test was conducted to evaluate the performance of an externally mounted composite deployable energy absorber under combined impact conditions. In the second crash test, the energy absorber was removed to establish baseline loads that are regarded as severe but survivable. Accelerations and kinematic data collected from the crash tests were compared to a system integrated finite element model of the test article. Results from 19 accelerometers placed throughout the airframe were compared to finite element model responses. The model developed for the purposes of predicting acceleration responses from the first crash test was inadequate when evaluating more severe conditions seen in the second crash test. A newly developed model calibration approach that includes uncertainty estimation, parameter sensitivity, impact shape orthogonality, and numerical optimization was used to calibrate model results for the second full-scale crash test. This combination of heuristic and quantitative methods was used to identify modeling deficiencies, evaluate parameter importance, and propose required model changes. It is shown that the multi-dimensional calibration techniques presented here are particularly effective in identifying model adequacy. Acceleration results for the calibrated model were compared to test results and the original model results. There was a noticeable improvement in the pilot and co-pilot region, a slight improvement in the occupant model response, and an over-stiffening effect in the passenger region. This approach should be adopted early on, in combination with the building-block approaches that are customarily used, for model development and test planning guidance. Complete crash simulations with validated finite element models can be used to satisfy crash certification requirements, thereby reducing overall development costs.

Annett, Martin S.↗

Anomaly Detection in Test Equipment via Sliding Mode Observers

Nonlinear observers were originally developed based on the ideas of variable structure control, and for the purpose of detecting disturbances in complex systems. In this anomaly detection application, these observers were designed for estimating the distributed state of fluid flow in a pipe described by a class of advection equations. The observer algorithm uses collected data in a piping system to estimate the distributed system state (pressure and velocity along a pipe containing liquid gas propellant flow) using only boundary measurements. These estimates are then used to further estimate and localize possible anomalies such as leaks or foreign objects, and instrumentation metering problems such as incorrect flow meter orifice plate size. The observer algorithm has the following parts: a mathematical model of the fluid flow, observer control algorithm, and an anomaly identification algorithm. The main functional operation of the algorithm is in creating the sliding mode in the observer system implemented as software. Once the sliding mode starts in the system, the equivalent value of the discontinuous function in sliding mode can be obtained by filtering out the high-frequency chattering component. In control theory, "observers" are dynamic algorithms for the online estimation of the current state of a dynamic system by measurements of an output of the system. Classical linear observers can provide optimal estimates of a system state in case of uncertainty modeled by white noise. For nonlinear cases, the theory of nonlinear observers has been developed and its success is mainly due to the sliding mode approach. Using the mathematical theory of variable structure systems with sliding modes, the observer algorithm is designed in such a way that it steers the output of the model to the output of the system obtained via a variety of sensors, in spite of possible mismatches between the assumed model and actual system. The unique properties of sliding mode control allow not only control of the model internal states to the states of the real-life system, but also identification of the disturbance or anomaly that may occur.

Solano, Wanda M.↗

Development and Calibration of a System-Integrated Rotorcraft Finite Element Model for Impact Scenarios

Two full-scale crash tests of an MD-500 helicopter were conducted in 2009 and 2010 at NASA Langley's Landing and Impact Research Facility in support of NASA s Subsonic Rotary Wing Crashworthiness Project. The first crash test was conducted to evaluate the performance of an externally mounted composite deployable energy absorber (DEA) under combined impact conditions. In the second crash test, the energy absorber was removed to establish baseline loads that are regarded as severe but survivable. The presence of this energy absorbing device reduced the peak impact acceleration levels by a factor of three. Accelerations and kinematic data collected from the crash tests were compared to a system-integrated finite element model of the test article developed in parallel with the test program. In preparation for the full-scale crash test, a series of sub-scale and MD-500 mass simulator tests were conducted to evaluate the impact performances of various components and subsystems, including new crush tubes and the DEA blocks. Parameters defined for the system-integrated finite element model were determined from these tests. Results from 19 accelerometers placed throughout the airframe were compared to finite element model responses. The model developed for the purposes of predicting acceleration responses from the first crash test was inadequate when evaluating more severe conditions seen in the second crash test. A newly developed model calibration approach that includes uncertainty estimation, parameter sensitivity, impact shape orthogonality, and numerical optimization was used to calibrate model results for the full-scale crash test without the DEA. This combination of heuristic and quantitative methods identified modeling deficiencies, evaluated parameter importance, and proposed required model changes. The multidimensional calibration techniques presented here are particularly effective in identifying model adequacy. Acceleration results for the calibrated model were compared to test results and the original model results. There was a noticeable improvement in the pilot and copilot region, a slight improvement in the occupant model response, and an over-stiffening effect in the passenger region. One lesson learned was that this approach should be adopted early on, in combination with the building-block approaches that are customarily used, for model development and pretest predictions. Complete crash simulations with validated finite element models can be used to satisfy crash certification requirements, potentially reducing overall development costs.

Annett, Martin S.↗

Optimized bandpasses for the Habitable Worlds Observatory's exoEarth survey

A primary scientific goal of the future Habitable Worlds Observatory will be the direct detection and characterization of Earth-like planets. Estimates of the exoplanet yields for this concept will help guide mission design through detailed trade studies. It is therefore critical that yield estimation codes optimally adapt observations to the mission’s performance parameters to ensure accurate trade studies. To aid in this, we implement wavelength optimization in yield calculations for the first time, allowing the yield code to determine the ideal detection and characterization bandpasses. We use this capability to confirm the observational wavelength assumptions made for the large UV/Optical/IR surveyor, design B (LUVOIR-B) study, namely that the optimum detection wavelength is 500 nm for the majority of targets and the optimum wavelength to detect water is near 1000 nm, given LUVOIR-B’s assumed instrument performance parameters. We show that including the wavelength-dependent albedo of an Earth twin as a prior provides no significant benefit to the yields of exoEarth candidates and caution against tuning observations to modern Earth twins. We also show that coronagraphs whose inner working angles are similar to step functions may benefit from wavelength optimization and demonstrate how wavelength-dependent instrument performance can impact the optimum wavelengths for detection and characterization. The optimization methods we implement automate wavelength selection and remove uncertainties regarding these choices, helping to adapt the observations to the instrument’s performance parameters.

telescopes↗

Adaptive Flight Control Design with Optimal Control Modification on an F-18 Aircraft Model

In the presence of large uncertainties, a control system needs to be able to adapt rapidly to regain performance. Fast adaptation is referred to as the implementation of adaptive control with a large adaptive gain to reduce the tracking error rapidly; however, a large adaptive gain can lead to high-frequency oscillations which can adversely affect the robustness of an adaptive control law. A new adaptive control modification is presented that can achieve robust adaptation with a large adaptive gain without incurring high-frequency oscillations as with the standard model-reference adaptive control. The modification is based on the minimization of the Y2 norm of the tracking error, which is formulated as an optimal control problem. The optimality condition is used to derive the modification using the gradient method. The optimal control modification results in a stable adaptation and allows a large adaptive gain to be used for better tracking while providing sufficient robustness. A damping term (v) is added in the modification to increase damping as needed. Simulations were conducted on a damaged F-18 aircraft (McDonnell Douglas, now The Boeing Company, Chicago, Illinois) with both the standard baseline dynamic inversion controller and the adaptive optimal control modification technique. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed modification in tracking a reference model.

Burken, John J.↗

Minimax control of a system with process uncertainty in substate space

The control of a single input-single output plant with parameter uncertainty was approached using a minimax technique. A linear time invariant controller results which requires only partial state feedback and is optimal in the sense that it minimizes a quadratic criterion involving tracking error, control, and parameter uncertainty. Bounded input-bounded output stability is guaranteed provided the transfer function has only left half plane zeros. If uncertainties are bounded, it is always possible to stabilize the system when sufficient control amplitude is available. The number of states required to generate the control is equal to the system order less the number of zeros.

Basuthakur, S.↗

Analyzing the Efficacy of Flexible Execution, Replanning, and Plan Optimization for a Planetary Lander

Plan execution in unknown environments poses a number of challenges: uncertainty in domain modeling, stochasticity at execution time, and the presence of exogenous events. These challenges motivate an integrated approach to planning and execution that is able to respond intelligently to variation. We examine this problem in the context of the Europa Lander mission concept, and propose a planning and execution framework that responds to feedback and task failure using two techniques: flexible execution and replanning with plan optimization. We develop a theoretical framework to predict the value of each of these techniques, and we compare these predictions to empirical results generated in simulation. We demonstrate that an integrated approach to planning and execution that is grounded in flexible execution, replanning, and utility maximization will be an enabling technology for future tightly-constrained planetary surface missions.

Chien, Steve↗

Analyzing the Efficacy of Flexible Execution, Replanning, and Plan Optimization for a Planetary Lander

Plan execution in unknown environments poses a number of challenges: uncertainty in domain modeling, stochasticity at execution time, and the presence of exogenous events. These challenges motivate an integrated approach to planning and execution that is able to respond intelligently to variation. We examine this problem in the context of the Europa Lander mission concept, and propose a planning and execution framework that responds to feedback and task failure using two techniques: flexible execution and replanning with plan optimization. We develop a theoretical framework to predict the value of each of these techniques, and we compare these predictions to empirical results generated in simulation. We demonstrate that an integrated approach to planning and execution that is grounded in flexible execution, replanning, and utility maximization will be an enabling technology for future tightly-constrained planetary surface missions.

Basich, Connor↗

Uncertainty Analysis via Failure Domain Characterization: Unrestricted Requirement Functions

This paper proposes an uncertainty analysis framework based on the characterization of the uncertain parameter space. This characterization enables the identification of worst-case uncertainty combinations and the approximation of the failure and safe domains with a high level of accuracy. Because these approximations are comprised of subsets of readily computable probability, they enable the calculation of arbitrarily tight upper and lower bounds to the failure probability. The methods developed herein, which are based on nonlinear constrained optimization, are applicable to requirement functions whose functional dependency on the uncertainty is arbitrary and whose explicit form may even be unknown. Some of the most prominent features of the methodology are the substantial desensitization of the calculations from the assumed uncertainty model (i.e., the probability distribution describing the uncertainty) as well as the accommodation for changes in such a model with a practically insignificant amount of computational effort.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

Computational Inference of Vibratory System with Incomplete Modal Information Using Parallel, Interactive and Adaptive Markov Chains

Inverse analysis of vibratory system is an important subject in fault identification, model updating, and robust design and control. It is challenging subject because 1) the problem is oftentimes underdetermined while the measurements are limited and/or incomplete; 2) many combinations of parameters may yield results that are similar with respect to actual response measurements; and 3) uncertainties inevitably exist. The aim of this research is to leverage upon computational intelligence through statistical inference to facilitate an enhanced, probabilistic framework using incomplete modal response measurement. This new framework is built upon efficient inverse identification through optimization, whereas Bayesian inference is employed to account for the effect of uncertainties. To overcome the computational cost barrier, we adopt Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to characterize the target function/distribution. Instead of using single Markov chain in conventional Bayesian approach, we develop a new sampling theory with multiple parallel, interactive and adaptive Markov chains and incorporate it into Bayesian inference. This can harness the collective power of these Markov chains to realize the concurrent search of multiple local optima. The number of required Markov chains and their respective initial model parameters are automatically determined via Monte Carlo simulation-based sample pre-screening followed by K-means clustering analysis. These enhancements can effectively address the aforementioned challenges in finite element inverse analysis. The validity of this framework is systematically demonstrated through case studies.

K Zhou↗

The Aeronautical Data Link: Decision Framework for Architecture Analysis

A decision analytic approach that develops optimal data link architecture configuration and behavior to meet multiple conflicting objectives of concurrent and different airspace operations functions has previously been developed. The approach, premised on a formal taxonomic classification that correlates data link performance with operations requirements, information requirements, and implementing technologies, provides a coherent methodology for data link architectural analysis from top-down and bottom-up perspectives. This paper follows the previous research by providing more specific approaches for mapping and transitioning between the lower levels of the decision framework. The goal of the architectural analysis methodology is to assess the impact of specific architecture configurations and behaviors on the efficiency, capacity, and safety of operations. This necessarily involves understanding the various capabilities, system level performance issues and performance and interface concepts related to the conceptual purpose of the architecture and to the underlying data link technologies. Efficient and goal-directed data link architectural network configuration is conditioned on quantifying the risks and uncertainties associated with complex structural interface decisions. Deterministic and stochastic optimal design approaches will be discussed that maximize the effectiveness of architectural designs.

Morris, A. Terry↗

Response Surface Methods For Spatially-Resolved Optical Measurement Techniques

Response surface methods (or methodology), RSM, have been applied to improve data quality for two vastly different spatially-resolved optical measurement techniques. In the first application, modern design of experiments (MDOE) methods, including RSM, are employed to map the temperature field in a direct-connect supersonic combustion test facility at NASA Langley Research Center. The laser-based measurement technique known as coherent anti-Stokes Raman spectroscopy (CARS) is used to measure temperature at various locations in the combustor. RSM is then used to develop temperature maps of the flow. Even though the temperature fluctuations at a single point in the flowfield have a standard deviation on the order of 300 K, RSM provides analytic fits to the data having 95% confidence interval half width uncertainties in the fit as low as +/- 30 K. Methods of optimizing future CARS experiments are explored. The second application of RSM is to quantify the shape of a 5-meter diameter, ultra-lightweight, inflatable space antenna at NASA Langley Research Center. Photogrammetry is used to simultaneously measure the shape of the antenna at approximately 500 discrete spatial locations. RSM allows an analytic model to be developed that describes the shape of the majority of the antenna with an uncertainty of 0.4 mm, with 95% confidence. This model would allow a quantitative comparison between the actual shape of the antenna and the original design shape. Accurately determining this shape also allows confident interpolation between the measured points. Such a model could, for example, be used for ray tracing of radio-frequency waves up to 95 GHz. to predict the performance of the antenna.

Danehy, P. M.↗