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DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Uncertainty in PV Energy Estimates Final Report

Uncertainty in PV energy estimates is "one of the most critical areas of lack of understanding" according to independent engineers, financiers, PV model developers, and other industry stakeholders. The primary problem is a lack of rigorous, transparent, widely accepted methods for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates. Uncertainty in energy production estimates arises from variability of the solar resource, inexact PV performance models and their parameters, and system reliability considerations. Uncertainty in annual energy production is frequently calculated for larger projects in order to quantify financial risk. Key statistics for energy, such as the P-values "P50" and "P90" (the annual energy values that are exceeded in future years with 50\% and 90\% probability, respectively) are used by financing institutions to calculate the repayment risk for the project. The current methods to estimate these statistics are typically proprietary, specialized, and involve significant post-processing of commercial performance model results. This black-box approach leads to inconsistent P-value estimates from different parties, which reduces investors' confidence in the results. Since the financial community bases its risk assessment on these estimates, reduced confidence increases perceived project risk, and consequently financing costs. The goal of this project was to establish a set of best practices for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates, including identifying what sources of uncertainty must be considered with clear definitions and metrics, determining which sources are the biggest drivers of uncertainty, and providing a computationally efficient framework for combining different sources of uncertainty that is flexible enough to accommodate substitutions of data or methods when better information is available. We engaged a wide set of stakeholders to ensure industry endorsement and adoption, and leveraged complementary projects investigating individual sources of uncertainty in great detail, as well as others' work that started down this path.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Methodology Guidelines on Life Cycle Assessment of Photovoltaic 2020, 4th Edition

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a structured, comprehensive method of quantifying material- and energy-flows and their associated emissions caused in the life cycle 1 of goods and services. The ISO 14040 and 14044 standards provide the framework for LCA. However, this framework leaves the individual practitioner with a range of choices that can affect the results and thus the conclusions of an LCA study. The present version of the IEA LCA guidelines is the result of the third update. They were developed and are updated to provide guidance on assuring consistency, balance, and quality to enhance the credibility and reliability of the results from LCAs on photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Solar Photovaltaics Durability and Resilience - A Win-Win

Solar photovoltaics (PV) will play a crucial role in decarbonizing the electrical grid and limit the effects of detrimental climate change. Long lifetimes of PV installations are a win-win situation, as it not only reduces carbon emissions directly through avoidance of fossil fuel emissions but also indirectly, as it reduces the demand of needed materials and potentially recycling. However, during their decades-long lifetime expectations installations are also more commonly exposed to extreme weather events. Building durable solar system to withstand extreme weather events is essential in the electrification of the economy and will save lives, particularly when they power critical infrastructure such as hospitals. As more PV is installed in regions prone to extreme weather events, high-quality materials, installation and monitoring practices can mitigate risk. Evaluating resilience requires combined computational, analytical, and experimental capabilities that are best leveraged by teams working across multiple disciplines.

durability↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrated Large-Scale Data Management Platform for Photovoltaic Power Conversion Equipment (PCE) Reliability Data: Preprint

To meet the demand for accuracy and real-time capability of PV system degradation evaluation, massive volume data is needed to run high-fidelity and high-efficiency simulations and perform advanced data analysis. However, PV farm operators have a series of difficulties with PV inverter data, such as data collection from multiple channels, massive data storage, data management and massive data analysis. To address these challenges, we developed an integrated data management platform capable of data acquisition, processing, storage, query, and performing big data analysis utilizing AI algorithms. The platform can also achieve data correctness verification and provide an effective distributed data management solution to retrieve massive data and establish a connection to distributed computational frameworks.

data management↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reliability of tandem solar cells and modules: what's next?

Hybrid tandem photovoltaic (PV) technology development has gained momentum in the last few years. This has been motivated by a need to push module efficiencies beyond what is theoretically capable with single-junction technologies to further accelerate total global PV deployment. Significant advances have been made with multiple material systems achieving tandem efficiencies over 30% in the last decade. All of the highest record efficiencies have been from laboratory-scale devices, with areas of 1 cm2 or less. Interestingly, there are multiple material combinations and terminal configurations that have demonstrated promising results. Despite these high laboratory efficiencies, reasonable service lifetimes (a useful operating lifetime of at least 25 years) are needed for tandems to compete with the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of traditional single junction PV technologies. Existing commercial Si PV products have demonstrated performance in the field with an average of less than 1% relative annual degradation in module and system performance, and many manufacturers now provide 30 year warranties on their products.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

DER Digital Supply Chain Gap Analysis

Solar photovoltaic (PV) cybersecurity is a growing field of research. As deployments of solar PV have increased, cyber risk has also increased. Utility solar PV installations, however, are not required to comply with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) plan unless they meet a minimum generation threshold of 75 MW. Individual residential-scale solar PV deployments will not meet that generation threshold and are therefore excluded from the NERC CIP requirements. With most solar installations less than 75 MW, solar PV has been deployed with minimal oversight and highly variable cybersecurity maturity. The resources that comprise the digital supply chain can include software, code, data, and other digital components. But as clean energy technologies advance, cybersecurity threats and vulnerabilities continue to evolve and grow in sophistication. Supply chain cybersecurity represents a critical area for ensuring safe operations as the U.S. moves toward a clean energy future.

cybersecurity↗
DOE OSTI2026

Security Constrained Economic Optimization of Photovoltaic and Other Distributed Assets

The rapid growth of distributed energy resources (DERs), especially photovoltaic (PV) systems, has introduced new complexities in maintaining grid reliability, stability, and cost-effective operation. This project addresses these challenges by developing and demonstrating a scalable GridOS Distributed Energy Resource Management System (DERMS) that enables secure, real-time optimization and control of DERs at the distribution feeder level.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cost Efficient and Highly Weather-Resistant Solar Panel Backsheet Produced through Continuous Co-Extrusion Processing

The efficient generation and delivery of ‘clean energy” through photovoltaic (PV) technology relies heavily on the cost, performance and reliability of solar panels, along with the individual components used in assembly of those panels. In order to continue towards the Department of Energy’s (DOE) goals of driving costs down, the lifetime of high-output power generation equipment (i.e. solar modules) must be extended to reduce costs associated with power output degradation and replacement of failed or degraded panels. One of the major sources of module failures in the past 30 years has been the failure of the solar panel backsheet. Failure of this component causes severe output losses due to oxidation and yellowing of the module while creating safety concerns as the major electrical insulation of the module is compromised. Tomark-Worthen LLC was formed in 2012 with the goal of designing and manufacturing novel PV backsheets and encapsulants that would be produced in the United States of America and exceed expectations of domestic and international module producers. These backsheets would improve upon known backsheet design failures (i.e. Isovoltaic’s AAA backsheet) and create domestic manufacturing jobs in the PV sector. This goal became a reality with a first-generation product in 2018 and now, with the support of the DOE, Tomark-Worthen has launched a second-generation product known as PhotoMark® Reflections™ 205-3 and 360-3. This 2+ year effort began in late 2017 with a screening of potential polymeric materials and backsheet structural designs. Performance evaluations of each material provided the necessary data needed to select the proper material combinations and move forward into the design of the manufacturing process. These decisions were made by teaming with a local university, well-respected government laboratories, and private research organizations who provided the tools necessary to predict long-term performance of these materials in much shorter periods of time. Once the go/no-go criteria were met at the mid-point of the project, the effort transitioned to predicting 30+ year performance, achieving certifications, and improving manufacturing efficiencies designed to lower costs in order to be competitive in a cost-driven market. Major project accomplishments include recognition of the new backsheet by Underwriters Laboratories (UL) and international certification for 1000V and 1500V modules by TUV Sud. Both 1000V and 1500V products have been proven on several module manufacturing lines and initial customer orders have been received by both domestic and international module producers. Accelerated exposure testing has shown that the performance of this backsheet exceeds the prior polyamide-based backsheet known to fail in the field. Cost-models and initial customer orders have shown the ability to produce this backsheet at a cost acceptable to many domestic manufacturers, while International costs for standard backsheet remains extremely low. Tomark-Worthen remains one of the only U.S. companies manufacturing backsheet domestically and this has drawn interest from many domestic module manufacturers looking to improve their material supply logistics by avoiding long lead times and custom’s headaches while avoiding current tariffs on Chinese-made components. Along with the launch of a new PV backsheet, this project has provided a critical deliverable to the PV R&D community. This deliverable is the knowledge that not all polyamide-containing backsheets are doomed to failure as the earlier versions did. There has been a fear amongst the PV community to consider these materials due to the failure of one design. This effort has brought a new level of interest to the scientific community as it has been shown that polyamides can be used successfully in a well-designed backsheet. As we move forward from this project, we are excited to see how backsheet technology and manufacturing in the U.S. will continue to progress and grow.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

On Residual Stresses and Reference Temperatures in Thermomechanical Simulations of Photovoltaic Modules Using the Finite Element Method

Thermomechanical simulation of photovoltaic (PV) modules using the finite element method (FEM) is a useful tool to evaluate module design features in terms of structural integrity, reliability, and durability. One of the main challenges in the numerical modeling of a PV module is the incorporation of residual stresses induced by the manufacturing process. Modeling assumptions and abstractions are necessary to limit the model complexity and reduce the computational time. However, oversimplifications and incorrect assumptions can lead to erroneous numerical results. Unfortunately, much simulation work still neglects process-induced stresses. This can lead to incorrect predictions of the stress-strain history and erroneous conclusions during the design process. In this work, we review current modeling practices for incorporating process-induced stresses, and contrast numerical models that consider residual stresses with those that neglect them. We find that the simulation objective and available material properties dictate which process steps need to be modeled, and explore in depth the modeling of residual stresses induced by the lamination process. We demonstrate that a simplified cooldown procedure at the beginning of the simulation can increase the model accuracy and discuss appropriate choices for starting and reference temperatures in the finite element model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Voltage Support With PV Inverters in Low-Voltage Distribution Networks: An Overview

Large solar photovoltaic (PV) penetration using inverters in low voltage (LV) distribution networks may pose several challenges, such as reverse power flow and voltage rise situations. These challenges will eventually force grid operators to carry out grid reinforcement to ensure continued safe and reliable operations. However, smart inverters with reactive power control capability enable PV systems to support voltage quality in the distribution network better. Here, this paper gives an overview of the current state-of-the-art control strategies for handling voltage problems through PV inverters and other devices. In addition, the (control) technical issues of PV systems integrated into the LV distribution network are considered from a control point of view. By comparing the control issues of PV integration into the grid, the paper aims to help distribution system operators to expand the volume of PV generation in the distribution system in an efficient and safe manner. Additionally, it will help control engineers and researchers select proper control strategies for PV systems as well as other distributed renewable sources.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Maximizing Solar and Transportation Synergies

This report considers the technological and market pathways that will enable better use of photovoltaic (PV) electricity as fuel for future transportation demand. Most of the pathways identified will require collaborative research and development (R&D) efforts to improve the capabilities of multiple technologies, including PV, energy storage, vehicles, electrolyzers, electrofuels, and infrastructure. For plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), technologies that enable wide-scale managed and coordinated charging are among the highest priorities for continued research, development, and deployment in the near term. Furthermore, managed and coordinated charging capabilities are foundational for future vehicle-to-grid (V2G) functionality in the long term. For hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), the use of PV electricity for electrolysis provides an opportunity to increase PV deployment. For rail, air, and maritime transportation, the feasibility of increased PV use varies in the near term; opportunities for synergies with solar include the electrification of rail, increased reliability from airport microgrids, and switching from heavy fuel oil to clean maritime electrofuels made from PV-based hydrogen. Over the longer term, battery swap stations for electric airplanes and the co-location of solar with hydrogen fueling stations at shipping ports may enable greater synergies between PV and transportation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of Voltage-Based Grid Support Functions on Energy Production of PV Customers

This paper presents the impact of inverter grid- support functions (GSFs) on photovoltaic (PV) customer energy production on a real distribution feeder in Oahu, HI. These autonomous GSFs based on local voltage measurements are good alternatives to increase PV hosting capacity. However, these functions can result in PV energy curtailment to the customer, and this study addresses the concerns about the impact of inverter GSFs through detailed quasi-static time series (QSTS) simulations. It proposes four metrics: maximum and average GSF curtailment, average increased generation and average net generation change, to assess the impact of a given control on PV systems located on customer sites. It was found that curtailment of PV production is negligible for customers where peak voltage is within ANSI C84.1 range. A reliable relationship between curtailment and peak customer voltage is demonstrated, suggesting that peak voltage could be used as an indicator of customer curtailment.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

IEA PVPS Task 13 Techno-Economic Study of Bifacial Photovoltaic Systems on Single Axis Trackers

The International Energy Agency PVPS Task 13 has assembled an international team of photovoltaic (PV) researchers from government labs, academia, and industry to study the specific application of bifacial PV modules deployed on tracking systems. This configuration is of particular interest as it has been identified as the PV system design with the lowest Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) for over 90% of the world [1]. As such, much research, development, and commercial activity are focused on further optimizing this system design for different regions and markets, including field deployment and advanced modeling activities. Despite these efforts, many challenges remain to overcome with this system design. This conference paper will report on several areas the team is working on as part of this project. The first part of this study focuses on extensive interviews with PV tracker companies (we have identified 35) and customers worldwide to identify emerging technology trends, design diversity, market environments, and the reliability and performance of these systems. We will provide a market summary of technologies such as advanced tracking algorithms, methods for dealing with topography within the PV plant, different system configurations and layouts, backside irradiance optimization from albedo enhancement, and ground sculpting. We will also review dual-use applications of tracked bifacial systems, such as Agrivoltaics and Building-Integrated PV. These interviews are underway now, and we will be able to report our initial findings at the conference. The second part of the study focuses on summarizing performance monitoring and evaluation methods, with particular attention to capacity and acceptance testing for such systems. The third part of the study reviews performance modeling and yield assessment methods for these tracked bifacial PV systems. The final part of the study covers reliability and operations, and maintenance data from these systems.

albedo↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistical Performance Analysis on Approximately 320 Perovskite Single- and Two-Junction Solar Cells and Modules from >30 Global Sources

As perovskite photovoltaics (PV) advance from the laboratory to commercial prototypes, their accurate and reliable performance testing is becoming increasingly important. The well documented dynamic response of perovskite solar cells to an external applied voltage has led to the development of steady-state performance measurement methods; however, these methods have not been widely adopted by the perovskite PV community. A key reason for this is that steady-state measurement methods take tens of minutes to complete, as opposed to conventional "fast" current-voltage (I-V) measurements usually lasting a few seconds. Fast I-Vs arise from a snapshot, almost always not a steady-state condition of the device; however, given their widespread use, the question arises: how do performance parameters of perovskite PV compare when measured with fast I-V and with a steady-state method? We compile results from ca. 320 perovskite PV cells and modules, including single junction, and two-terminal perovskite-perovskite and perovskite-Si tandems, and show that fast I-Vs can provide a useful measure of the open-circuit voltage of the devices, while the short-circuit current and the overall efficiency can be widely misestimated. We discuss implications of these findings on performance testing protocols and propose possible options for fast and accurate testing of perovskite PV.

asymptotic↗
DOE OSTI2025

Packages of Distributed Energy Technologies Demonstrating Demand Flexibility at Community Scale

The combination of increased electric load growth across all sectors, deferred electrical infrastructure investment, and other factors resulting in variable electric power supply, has created technical challenges to maintaining a resilient and reliable grid. Many federal, regional, and local efforts are in play to modernize the electric grid, including advancing building technologies and distributed energy resources (DERs) that are utilizing smarter controls to become responsive to both occupant and grid needs. This report reviews ten pilot projects demonstrating how groups of buildings combined with behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs such as electric vehicle (EV) charging, battery storage, flexible HVAC and domestic hot water systems, and photovoltaic systems can reliably and cost effectively provide grid services. Each of the ten pilot projects aim to deliver both energy efficiency and demand flexibility (DF) while supporting load growth. The ten demonstration teams are piloting flexible DER packages across diverse communities of residential and commercial buildings to address a variety of regional grid needs. The outcomes of these pilot projects will be used to inform future scaling through utility program development. This paper characterizes the ten teams, showcasing the decision-making process used by each group to develop their packages (Section 2), the grid services they plan to deliver (Section 3), the types of DER packages selected for deployment within building sectors (Section 4) and trends between building sector, DER types, and grid services In order to achieve community scale benefits, the pilot projects must utilize aggregated control mechanisms for coordinating buildings and DERs together. Several types of coordinated control architectures have evolved amongst the teams, influenced by use type, existing market conditions, and integration type. Three coordinated controls architectures have been characterized, highlighting their use cases, benefits, challenges, and tradeoffs in their design. These insights can aid utilities, control vendors, and developers in scaling community-level energy systems (Paul, 2024). Ultimately, the technology packages selected by the ten teams will be coordinated to provide power system services, also known as grid services. Insights from these demonstrations will be useful for grid operators, regulators, aggregators and other stakeholders as they look to deploy demand flexible resources as grid services in the future. The grid services that each team is targeting for demonstration are described in Section 3 and Section 4. Methods for evaluating the grid services have been described in the paper Metrics for Evaluating Grid Service Provision from Communities of Grid-interactive and Efficient Buildings and other DER (MacDonald, 2023). To identify technology packages for demonstration, Section 2 shows that project teams used a range of analysis approaches, including building energy modeling, AMI data analysis, cost-benefit frameworks, and utility pilot data. Some teams emphasized technical modeling to quantify grid impacts and demand reduction potential, while others prioritized economic evaluations, stakeholder input, or exploratory pilots to inform deployment decisions. This diversity reflects the need to tailor selection methods to project goals, available data, and organizational context. Section 5 discusses trends between the DER technologies deployed and the grid service provisions from each team. Residential buildings (multifamily and single family) lean towards technologies that enhance energy efficiency (e.g. weatherization upgrades, smart thermostats) and onsite power generation integration (e.g. solar PV). Commercial building demonstrations prioritize technologies that ensure operational reliability (e.g. battery storage) and centralized energy management systems and optimization solutions. Teams that are deploying controllable storage-based technologies are more likely to provide grid services that require a near real-time response. Teams incorporating load shifting technologies like smart thermostats with HEMs are likely to include energy markets participation and customer bill management offerings. Campus demonstrations are adopting diverse sets of DERs to emphasize renewable generation, paired with centralized control. This section also describes technologies that were considered during project planning but ultimately excluded from final deployment. These demonstrations reveal that effective DER package design should be tailored to building type, customer segment, and construction vintage. Multifamily buildings benefit from centralized HVAC upgrades and supervisory controls, while single-family homes are well-suited for individualized technologies like solar, storage, and smart home energy monitors. Commercial and campus settings prioritize EMIS integration and load optimization. New construction enables cost-effective integration of DER-ready infrastructure, whereas retrofits require deployments aligned with owner and tenant value streams. For utility program planners, early coordination with developers and building owners, paired with segmented and modular program offerings, can improve adoption, scalability, and grid impact.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

How Useful are Conventional I–Vs for Performance Calibration of Single- and Two-Junction Perovskite Solar Cells? A Statistical Analysis of Performance Data on ≈200 Cells from 30 Global Sources

As perovskite photovoltaics (PV) advance from the laboratory to commercial prototypes, their accurate and reliable performance testing is becoming increasingly important. The well-documented dynamic response of perovskite solar cells to an external applied voltage has led to the development of steady-state performance measurement methods; however, these methods have not been widely adopted by the perovskite PV community. A key reason for this is that steady-state measurement methods take tens of minutes to complete, as opposed to conventional "fast" current-voltage (I-V) measurements usually lasting a few seconds. Fast I-Vs arise from a snapshot, almost always not a steady-state condition of the device; however, given their widespread use, the question arises: how do performance parameters of perovskite PV compare when measured with fast I-V and with a steady-state method? Results compiled from approximately 200 perovskite PV cells, including single junction, and two-terminal perovskite-perovskite and perovskite-Si tandems, show that fast I-Vs can provide a useful measure of the open-circuit voltage of the devices, while the short-circuit current and the overall efficiency can be widely misestimated. Here, the implications of these findings on performance testing protocols are discussed and possible options for fast and accurate testing of perovskite PV are proposed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Robust and resilient coordination of feeders with uncertain distributed energy resources: from real-time control to long-term planning

To enable flexible demand and ensure reliable and economical operation of distribution systems, we present a novel hierarchical scheme that actively coordinates responsive behind-the-meter grid resources, including distributed energy resources (DERs), to reliably manage each unbalanced distribution feeder and exploits the available flexibility to economically optimize the entire network. Each layer of the scheme employs advanced optimization methods at different timescales to ensure that the system operates within both grid and device limits. The hierarchy is validated in a large-scale realistic simulation based on data from the industry. Simulation results show that coordination of flexibility improves both system reliability and economics, and enables greater penetration of solar PV. Discussion is also provided on the practical viability of the required communications and controls to implement the presented scheme within a large DSO.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Activation Energy for End-of-Life Solder Bond Degradation: Thermal Cycling of Field-Aged PV Modules

The longevity of solar photovoltaic modules depends on the durability and reliability of their components, one of which is the solder bonds in interconnect ribbons. The solder joints experience stresses from thermal cycling and constant elevated temperatures (40 °C-70 °C) in regular field operation leading to thermo-mechanical fatigue and intermetallic compound formation. To study the end-of-life wear-out mechanisms and to obtain activation energy of solder bond degradation, here two field-aged modules from Arizona-a 21-year-old Solarex MSX60 module (with Sn62Pb36Ag2 at the solder joints) and an 18-year-old Siemens M55 module (with Sn60Pb40 at the solder joints)-underwent 800 and 400 modified thermal cycles, respectively. Using three heating blankets, each module had three temperature zones maintained at 85, 95, and 105 °C during the 15-min hot dwell time of the thermal cycle. Cell-level series resistance data obtained from three temperature zones enabled the calculation of activation energy for solder bond degradation for the MSX60 and the M55 modules to be 0.12 eV and 0.35 eV, respectively. From each temperature zone in both modules, busbar-solder samples were obtained, imaged through SEM, and analyzed with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. In the MSX60 module with traces of Ag in the solder material, phase segregation and growth were primarily observed at high temperatures. For M55 modules without Ag in the solder material, major phase segregation was observed in all temperature zones. The IMC thickness for both modules increased with increasing module temperature. The beneficial effect of Ag in solder material on mitigating solder bond degradation is presented.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗