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At least 235 records · Page 13

Technical and Economic Evaluation of the First Ever Polymer Flood Field Pilot to Enhance the Recovery of Heavy Oils on Alaska's North Slope via Machine Assisted History Matching

Polymer flooding has become globally established as a potential enhanced oil recovery method for heavy oils. To determine whether this technology may be useful in developing the substantial heavy oil resources on the Alaska North Slope, a polymer flood field pilot commenced at the Milne Point Unit in August 2018. This study seeks to evaluate the results of the field pilot on a technical and economic basis. A reservoir simulation model is constructed and calibrated to predict the oil recovery performance of the pilot through machine-assisted reservoir simulation techniques. To replicate the early water breakthrough observed during waterflooding, transmissibility contrasts are introduced into the simulation model, forcing viscous fingering effects. In the ensuing polymer flood, these transmissibility contrasts are reduced to replicate the restoration of injection conformance during polymer flooding. Transmissibility contrasts are later reinstated to replicate fracture overextension interpreted in one of the producing wells. The calibrated simulation models produced at each stage of the history matching process are used to forecast oil recovery. These forecasts are used as input for economic analysis, incremental to waterflooding expectations. The simulation forecasts indicate that polymer flooding significantly increases the heavy oil production for this field pilot compared to waterflooding alone, yielding attractive project economics. However, meaningful variations between simulation scenarios demonstrate that a simulation model is only valid for prediction if flow behavior in the reservoir remains consistent with that observed during the history matched period. Critically, this means that a simulation model calibrated for waterflooding may not fully capture the technical and economic benefits of an enhanced oil recovery process such as polymer flooding. Subsequently, the simulation model and economic model are used in conjunction to conduct a sensitivity analysis for polymer flood design parameters, from which recommendations are provided for both the continued operation of the current field pilot and future polymer flood designs. The results demonstrate that a higher polymer concentration can be injected due to the development of fractures in the reservoir. The throughput rate should remain high without exceeding operating constraints. A calculated point-forward polymer utilization parameter demonstrates the decreasing efficiency of the polymer flood at later times in the pattern life. Future projects will benefit from starting polymer injection earlier in the pattern life. A pattern with tighter horizontal well spacing will observe a greater incremental benefit from polymer flooding.

Keith, Cody↗

Remote sensing analysis of Lake Livingston aquatic plants

Results obtained during 1975 to monitor the growth of aquatic plants in the Lake Livingston area, using remote sensing photographic imagery, were described. Sequential total coverage was provided of the Jungle and White Rock Creek, plus coverage of smaller areas of localized infestation downlake, including Brushy Creek, KOA Kampground Marina, Penwaugh Slough, Memorial Point Marina, the Beacon Bay marinas and Pine Island. The imagery was generally good, photographic exposure being increased as the season progressed in order to obtain better pictures of the submerged vegetation. Some very significant differences in growth patterns, species interaction, and species dominance were observed when compared to 1974. Observation of the following plants was discussed: water hyacinth, hydrilla, coontail, potamageton. In general, the level of infestation was lower in 1975 than in 1974, due to the combined effect of more systematic application of herbicides and harsher intervening winter weather conditions.

Benton, A. R., Jr.↗

Improvement of synoptic scale moisture and wind field analyses using the Nimbus 4 THIR 6.7 micron observations

The Nimbus 4 temperature-humidity infrared radiometer (THIR) monitors radiation in the 6.5 to 7.2 micron water vapor absorption with a 23 kilometer spatial resolution at the sub-satellite point. Radiation monitored in this spectral region results primarily from emission in the 250 to 500 millibar region of the upper troposphere. The THIR 6.7 micron observations are readily available in photofacsimile imagery form which shows very distinctive patterns associated with spatial variations in atmospheric water vapor. These radiometric observations were combined in several instances with moisture values measured in the upper troposphere by the standard radiosonde network. In each instance, the result is a much more consistent analysis showing increased spatial detail that agrees with the radiometric observations and does not compromise the conventional data. The improved moisture analyses show relatively dry and moist tongues that are very difficult or impossible to infer from the conventional data alone. The patterns in the moisture fields can be tracked over 12 and 24 hour periods. In addition, by keeping in mind the advective properties of the moisture field, success was achieved in improving streamline analyses at the 400 mb level over data sparse regions on a global scale.

Steranko, J.↗

Machine processing for remotely acquired data

This paper is a general discussion of earth resources information systems which utilize airborne and spaceborne sensors. It points out that information may be derived by sensing and analyzing the spectral, spatial and temporal variations of electromagnetic fields emanating from the earth surface. After giving an overview system organization, the two broad categories of system types are discussed. These are systems in which high quality imagery is essential and those more numerically oriented. Sensors are also discussed with this categorization of systems in mind. The multispectral approach and pattern recognition are described as an example data analysis procedure for numerically-oriented systems. The steps necessary in using a pattern recognition scheme are described and illustrated with data obtained from aircraft and the Earth Resources Technology Satellite (ERTS-1).

Landgrebe, D. A.↗

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of a Global Landslide Catalog

Landslide inventories are critical to support investigations ofwhere andwhen landslides have happened andmay occur in the future; however, there is surprisingly little information on the historical occurrence of landslides at the global scale. This paper presents a new publicly available global landslide catalog (GLC), which is based on media reports, online databases, and other sources. This database is currently available at http://ojo-streamer. herokuapp.com/. The 5741 points in the GLC provide a foundation for evaluating spatial and temporal trends in landslide activity from 2007 to 2013. Globally, landslideswere reportedmost frequently from July to September. Most events occurred in Asia, North America and Southeast Asia. In contrast, fewer than 5% of the fatalities were reported in North America, suggesting a significant amount of under-reporting in other regions as well as potential discrepancies between developing and developed regions. Reported landslide events were also compared to satellite-based precipitation estimates fromthe Tropical RainfallMeasuring Mission (TRMM) to evaluate the co-occurrence of extreme precipitation and landslide activity. Of the 3550 points considered in a subset of the GLC, approximately 60% of the reported landslides have daily precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile of precipitation calculated over a 14-year TRMMrecord for the same location. This study also investigated how the recurrence interval of extreme precipitation corresponded to some of the most catastrophic landslide events. In spite of several reporting and cataloging biases, spatial and temporal analysis of the GLC suggests that it is a valuable database for characterizing global patterns of landslide occurrence and evaluating relationships with extreme precipitation at regional and global scales.

Analysis↗

Hazard Contribution Modes of Machine Learning Components

Amongst the essential steps to be taken towards developing and deploying safe systems with embedded learning-enabled components (LECs) i.e., software components that use ma- chine learning (ML)—are to analyze and understand the con- tribution of the constituent LECs to safety, and to assure that those contributions have been appropriately managed. This paper addresses both steps by, first, introducing the notion of hazard contribution modes (HCMs) a categorization of the ways in which the ML elements of LECs can contribute to hazardous system states; and, second, describing how argumentation patterns can capture the reasoning that can be used to assure HCM mitigation. Our framework is generic in the sense that the categories of HCMs developed i) can admit different learning schemes, i.e., supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning, and ii) are not dependent on the type of system in which the LECs are embedded, i.e., both cyber and cyber-physical systems. One of the goals of this work is to serve a starting point for systematizing L analysis towards eventually automating it in a tool.

Smith, Colin↗

Application of Nimbus 4 THIR 6.7-micron observations to regional and global moisture and wind field analyses.

The Nimbus 4 temperature-humidity infrared radiometer (THIR) monitors radiation in the 6.5 to 7.2-micron water vapor absorption region with a 23-km spatial resolution at the subsatellite point. Radiation monitored in this spectral region results primarily from emission in the 250 to 500-mb region of the upper troposphere. The THIR 6.7-micron observations are readily available in photofacsimile imagery form which shows very distinctive patterns associated with spatial variations in atmospheric water vapor. These radiometric observations have been combined in several instances with moisture values measured in the upper troposphere by the standard radiosonde network. In each instance, the result is a much more consistent analysis showing increased spatial detail that agrees with the radiometric observations and does not compromise the conventional data. The improved moisture analyses show relatively dry and moist tongues that are very difficult or impossible to infer from the conventional data alone.

Steranka, J.↗

Analogs in the wintertime 500 mb height field

Lorenz (1969) has considered the possibility that an atmospheric circulation pattern might recur, taking into account the definition of a pair of analogous flows or 'analogs'. The present investigation is concerned with a search of time series of Northern Hemisphere wintertime geopotential heights for possible analogs. Attention is given to data and analysis procedure, analog quality, and error growth rates. The obtained results imply that the found analogs are not a useful tool for forecasting the evolution of the midlatitude flow on time scales of several days. It is pointed out, however, that the negative results should not be extended to other applications of analog forecasting.

Gutzler, D. S.↗

Hazard Contribution Modes of Machine Learning Components

Amongst the essential steps to be taken towards developing and deploying safe systems with embedded learning-enabled components (LECs)—i.e., software components that use machine learning (ML)—are to analyze and understand the contribution of the constituent LECs to safety, and to assure that those contributions have been appropriately managed. This paper addresses both steps by, first, introducing the otion of hazard contribution modes (HCMs)—a categorization of the ways in which the ML elements of LECs can contribute to hazardous system states; and, second, describing how argumentation patterns can capture the reasoning that can be used to assure HCM mitigation. Our framework is generic in the sense that the categories of HCMs developed i) can admit different learning schemes, i.e., supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning, and ii) are not dependent on the type of system in which the LECs are embedded, i.e., both cyber and cyber-physical systems. One of the goals of this work is to serve a starting point for systematizing LEC safety analysis towards eventually automating it in a tool.

Smith, Colin↗

Cyanobacterial circadian regulation enhances bioproduction under subjective nighttime through rewiring of carbon partitioning dynamics, redox balance orchestration, and cell cycle modulation

Abstract Background The industrial feasibility of photosynthetic bioproduction using cyanobacterial platforms remains challenging due to insufficient yields, particularly due to competition between product formation and cellular carbon demands across different temporal phases of growth. This study investigates how circadian clock regulation impacts carbon partitioning between storage, growth, and product synthesis in Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942, and provides insights that suggest potential strategies for enhanced bioproduction. Results After entrainment to light-dark cycles, PCC 7942 cultures transitioned to constant light revealed distinct temporal patterns in sucrose production, exhibiting three-fold higher productivity during subjective night compared to subjective day despite moderate down-regulation of genes from the photosynthetic apparatus. This enhanced productivity coincided with reduced glycogen accumulation and halted cell division at subjective night time, suggesting temporal separation of competing processes. Transcriptome analysis revealed coordinated circadian clock-driven adjustment of the cell cycle and rewiring of energy and carbon metabolism, with over 300 genes showing differential expression across four time points. The subjective night was characterized by altered expression of cell division-related genes and reduced expression of genes involved in glycogen synthesis, while showing upregulation of glycogen degradation pathways, alternative electron flow components, the pentose phosphate pathway, and oxidative decarboxylation of pyruvate. These molecular changes created favorable conditions for product formation through enhanced availability of major sucrose precursors (glucose-1-phosphate and fructose-6-phosphate) and maintained redox balance through multiple mechanisms. Conclusions Our analysis of circadian regulatory rewiring of carbon metabolism and redox balancing suggests two potential approaches that could be developed for improving cyanobacterial bioproduction: leveraging natural circadian rhythms for optimizing cultivation conditions and timing of pathway induction, and engineering strains that mimic circadian-driven metabolic shifts through controlled carbon flux redistribution and redox rebalancing. While these strategies remain to be tested, they could theoretically improve the efficiency of photosynthetic bioproduction by enabling better temporal separation between cell growth, carbon storage accumulation, and product synthesis phases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

An antenna for limited scan in one plane - Design criteria and numerical simulation

Aperture illumination is synthesized through the use of overlapping subarrays with independently controlled excitations. Detailed analysis and design criteria are provided for a specific limited-scan antenna configuration scanning in one plane. The number of phase shifts is the theoretical minimum corresponding to specified aperture size and field of view. Beam pointing and width are approximately constant for moderate frequency variation, and ultralow sidelobes outside the field of view can be produced at the cost of a slight loss of illumination efficiency. Accurate aperture illumination control makes for excellent independently specified sum and difference patterns in beamforming.

Borgiotti, G. V.↗

The generation of electron hole pairs in very thin solar cells possessing an optical back-surface reflector

It is pointed out that very thin solar cells (1 micron thick or less) as, for example, amorphous silicon or cadmium sulfide cells, possessing a back surface reflector should be regarded as Fabry-Perot cavities as far as the generation of electron-hole pairs by light is concerned. The generation rate of electron-hole pairs as a function of distance from the front surface exhibits characteristic interference patterns which are not negligible and must be accounted for in an analysis of the performance of such a cell.

Von Roos, O.↗

Analysis and use of VAS satellite data

Four interrelated investigations have examined the analysis and use of VAS satellite data. A case study of VAS-derived mesoscale stability parameters suggested that they would have been a useful supplement to conventional data in the forecasting of thunderstorms on the day of interest. A second investigation examined the roles of first guess and VAS radiometric data in producing sounding retrievals. Broad-scale patterns of the first guess, radiances, and retrievals frequently were similar, whereas small-scale retrieval features, especially in the dew points, were often of uncertain origin. Two research tasks considered 6.7 micron middle tropospheric water vapor imagery. The first utilized radiosonde data to examine causes for two areas of warm brightness temperature. Subsidence associated with a translating jet streak was important. The second task involving water vapor imagery investigated simulated imagery created from LAMPS output and a radiative transfer algorithm. Simulated image patterns were found to compare favorably with those actually observed by VAS. Furthermore, the mass/momentum fields from LAMPS were powerful tools for understanding causes for the image configurations.

Fuelberg, Henry E.↗

Atmospheric Transport and Photochemistry of Ozone Over Central Southern Africa During the Southern Africa Fire-Atmosphere Research Initiative

Vertically integrated back and forward trajectories for the 300-200, 700-500 and surface-800 hPa levels are calculated using Pretoria as point of origin for the Southern Africa Fire-Atmosphere Research Initiative (SAFARI) period September-October 1992. The transport fields are then combined to show both horizontal and vertical transport of air to and from Pretoria at the different levels. Air transport patterns in the vertical are linked to the occurrence of absolutely stable layers which are also evident in the 16 ozonesonde profiles recorded at Pretoria during SAFARI. The coherence of the stratification based on dynamical and ozone analysis permits the use of mean ozone profiles with air volume fluxes to interpret the ozone in terms of photochemistry and transport within stable layers. Extensive recirculation across the meridional plane at Pretoria implies that advection of ozone is slow and that photochemistry is responsible for the observed vertical structure over central southern Africa in September and October 1992. Requisite ozone formation rates are supported by model analysis of ozone and ozone precursors measured from SAFARI and Transport and Atmospheric Research Chemistry near the Equator-Atlantic aircraft.

Tyson, P. D.↗

Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission L4_SM Data Product Assessment (Version 2 Validated Release)

During the post-launch SMAP calibration and validation (Cal/Val) phase there are two objectives for each science data product team: 1) calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithm, and 2) validate the accuracy of the science data product as specified in the science requirements and according to the Cal/Val schedule. This report provides an assessment of the SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture Passive (L4_SM) product specifically for the product's public Version 2 validated release scheduled for 29 April 2016. The assessment of the Version 2 L4_SM data product includes comparisons of SMAP L4_SM soil moisture estimates with in situ soil moisture observations from core validation sites and sparse networks. The assessment further includes a global evaluation of the internal diagnostics from the ensemble-based data assimilation system that is used to generate the L4_SM product. This evaluation focuses on the statistics of the observation-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals and the analysis increments. Together, the core validation site comparisons and the statistics of the assimilation diagnostics are considered primary validation methodologies for the L4_SM product. Comparisons against in situ measurements from regional-scale sparse networks are considered a secondary validation methodology because such in situ measurements are subject to up-scaling errors from the point-scale to the grid cell scale of the data product. Based on the limited set of core validation sites, the wide geographic range of the sparse network sites, and the global assessment of the assimilation diagnostics, the assessment presented here meets the criteria established by the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites for Stage 2 validation and supports the validated release of the data. An analysis of the time average surface and root zone soil moisture shows that the global pattern of arid and humid regions are captured by the L4_SM estimates. Results from the core validation site comparisons indicate that "Version 2" of the L4_SM data product meets the self-imposed L4_SM accuracy requirement, which is formulated in terms of the ubRMSE: the RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) after removal of the long-term mean difference. The overall ubRMSE of the 3-hourly L4_SM surface soil moisture at the 9 km scale is 0.035 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. The corresponding ubRMSE for L4_SM root zone soil moisture is 0.024 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. Both of these metrics are comfortably below the 0.04 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. The L4_SM estimates are an improvement over estimates from a model-only SMAP Nature Run version 4 (NRv4), which demonstrates the beneficial impact of the SMAP brightness temperature data. L4_SM surface soil moisture estimates are consistently more skillful than NRv4 estimates, although not by a statistically significant margin. The lack of statistical significance is not surprising given the limited data record available to date. Root zone soil moisture estimates from L4_SM and NRv4 have similar skill. Results from comparisons of the L4_SM product to in situ measurements from nearly 400 sparse network sites corroborate the core validation site results. The instantaneous soil moisture and soil temperature analysis increments are within a reasonable range and result in spatially smooth soil moisture analyses. The O-F residuals exhibit only small biases on the order of 1-3 degrees Kelvin between the (re-scaled) SMAP brightness temperature observations and the L4_SM model forecast, which indicates that the assimilation system is largely unbiased. The spatially averaged time series standard deviation of the O-F residuals is 5.9 degrees Kelvin, which reduces to 4.0 degrees Kelvin for the observation-minus-analysis (O-A) residuals, reflecting the impact of the SMAP observations on the L4_SM system. Averaged globally, the time series standard deviation of the normalized O-F residuals is close to unity, which would suggest that the magnitude of the modeled errors approximately reflects that of the actual errors. The assessment report also notes several limitations of the "Version 2" L4_SM data product and science algorithm calibration that will be addressed in future releases. Regionally, the time series standard deviation of the normalized O-F residuals deviates considerably from unity, which indicates that the L4_SM assimilation algorithm either over- or under-estimates the actual errors that are present in the system. Planned improvements include revised land model parameters, revised error parameters for the land model and the assimilated SMAP observations, and revised surface meteorological forcing data for the operational period and underlying climatological data. Moreover, a refined analysis of the impact of SMAP observations will be facilitated by the construction of additional variants of the model-only reference data. Nevertheless, the “Version 2” validated release of the L4_SM product is sufficiently mature and of adequate quality for distribution to and use by the larger science and application communities.

SMAP L4_SM↗

Time-reversed Young’s experiment: Deterministic, diffractionless second-order interference effect

The classic Young’s double-slit experiment exhibits first-order interference, producing alternating bright and dark fringes shaped by the diffraction effect of the slits. In contrast, here we demonstrate that its time-reversed configuration generates an ideal, deterministic second-order ‘ghost’ interference pattern free from diffraction and first-order effects with the use of only a position-fixed detector. The pattern’s size is governed by the dimensions of the ‘effectively extended light source’ formed by point emitter(s). Beyond highlighting the nonreciprocal physics between the two configurations, this system unlocks a range of novel phenomena inaccessible in traditional double-slit experiments. These include fully programmable, digitized interference fringe formations and the ability to align the pattern plane with the source plane on the same side of the setup. Remarkably, our proposed experiment achieves these outcomes without relying on nonclassical correlations or quantum entanglement. Here, by restoring time-reversal symmetry and eliminating diffraction, our theoretical analysis reveals that this approach offers exciting potential for advancing optical imaging and sensing technologies with improved transverse and longitudinal phase-shift sensitivity and resolution limit beyond current limitations.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Ecosystem Modeling of Biological Processes to Global Budgets

From an ecological perspective, the search for life on distant planets begins from several key assumptions. The first of these is that, viewed from a remote location in space, the signature of life on a distant planet will be the result of net gas exchange of organisms with their environment. On the basis of extensive biogeochemical measurements and biogenic trace gas fluxes in modem Earth environments, it is probable that certain groups of organisms both produce and consume the same trace gas(es) within a single bioprofile of Solid (porous) substrate or surface water. The net gas exchange rate with the atmosphere measured at the living surface is frequently the result of competing metabolic reactions, which may carried out by different functional groups of organisms located at dissimilar 'climatic' or chemical microsites within the same bioprofile. Biogenic gases produced at one (deep) level of a bioprofile may be consumed by another functional group of organisms located closer to the level of surface exchange with the atmosphere. A second key assumption is that the net biogenic fluxes of atmospheric gases on Earth can be used to infer relative abundance and functional composition of the major organisms on a distant planet. Examples of this principle include the presence of methanogenic microorganisms abundant today in freshwater ecosystems worldwide, which are major source of atmospheric methane and its seasonal variability in Earth's atmosphere. A third assumption is that scaling up biogenic gas fluxes from a single biological community to the planetary level requires flux measurements at the whole ecosystem level. This implies that measurements of biogenic gas exchange with the global atmosphere cannot be easily inferred from measurements of gas production rates of single organisms, which may have been isolated in some manner from the setting of their native ecosystem. Hence, the unit of biological organization used in modern Earth Science for scaling up to biosphere effects on atmospheric composition is the ecosystem level. These assumptions are the foundation for developing modern emission budgets for biogenic gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, carbon monoxide, isoprene, nitrous and nitric oxide, and ammonia. Such emission budgets commonly include information on seasonal flux patterns, typical diurnal profiles, and spatial resolution of at least one degree latitude/longitude for the globe. On the basis of these budgets, it is possible to compute 'base emission rates' for the major biogenic trace gases from both terrestrial and ocean sources, which may be useful benchmarks for defining the gas production rates of organisms, especially those from early Earth history, which are required to generate a detectable signal on a global atmosphere. This type of analysis is also the starting point for evaluation of the 'biological processes to global gas budget' extrapolation procedure described above for early Earth ecosystems.

Christopher, Potter S.↗

Developmental evolutionary biology of the vertebrate ear: conserving mechanoelectric transduction and developmental pathways in diverging morphologies

This brief overview shows that a start has been made to molecularly dissect vertebrate ear development and its evolutionary conservation to the development of the insect hearing organ. However, neither the patterning process of the ear nor the patterning process of insect sensory organs is sufficiently known at the moment to provide more than a first glimpse. Moreover, hardly anything is known about otocyst development of the cephalopod molluscs, another triploblast lineage that evolved complex 'ears'. We hope that the apparent conserved functional and cellular components present in the ciliated sensory neurons/hair cells will also be found in the genes required for vertebrate ear and insect sensory organ morphogenesis (Fig. 3). Likewise, we expect that homologous pre-patterning genes will soon be identified for the non-sensory cell development, which is more than a blocking of neuronal development through the Delta/Notch signaling system. Generation of the apparently unique ear could thus represent a multiplication of non-sensory cells by asymmetric and symmetric divisions as well as modification of existing patterning process by implementing novel developmental modules. In the final analysis, the vertebrate ear may come about by increasing the level of gene interactions in an already existing and highly conserved interactive cascade of bHLH genes. Since this was apparently achieved in all three lineages of triploblasts independently (Fig. 3), we now need to understand how much of the morphogenetic cascades are equally conserved across phyla to generate complex ears. The existing mutations in humans and mice may be able to point the direction of future research to understand the development of specific cell types and morphologies in the formation of complex arthropod, cephalopod, and vertebrate 'ears'.

Non-NASA Center↗