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Brief summary of the evolution of high-temperature creep-fatigue life prediction models for crack initiation

The evolution of high-temperature, creep-fatigue, life-prediction methods used for cyclic crack initiation is traced from inception in the late 1940's. The methods reviewed are material models as opposed to structural life prediction models. Material life models are used by both structural durability analysts and by material scientists. The latter use micromechanistic models as guidance to improve a material's crack initiation resistance. Nearly one hundred approaches and their variations have been proposed to date. This proliferation poses a problem in deciding which method is most appropriate for a given application. Approaches were identified as being combinations of thirteen different classifications. This review is intended to aid both developers and users of high-temperature fatigue life prediction methods by providing a background from which choices can be made. The need for high-temperature, fatigue-life prediction methods followed immediately on the heels of the development of large, costly, high-technology industrial and aerospace equipment immediately following the second world war. Major advances were made in the design and manufacture of high-temperature, high-pressure boilers and steam turbines, nuclear reactors, high-temperature forming dies, high-performance poppet valves, aeronautical gas turbine engines, reusable rocket engines, etc. These advances could no longer be accomplished simply by trial and error using the 'build-em and bust-em' approach. Development lead times were too great and costs too prohibitive to retain such an approach. Analytic assessments of anticipated performance, cost, and durability were introduced to cut costs and shorten lead times. The analytic tools were quite primitive at first and out of necessity evolved in parallel with hardware development. After forty years more descriptive, more accurate, and more efficient analytic tools are being developed. These include thermal-structural finite element and boundary element analyses, advanced constitutive stress-strain-temperature-time relations, and creep-fatigue-environmental models for crack initiation and propagation. The high-temperature durability methods that have evolved for calculating high-temperature fatigue crack initiation lives of structural engineering materials are addressed. Only a few of the methods were refined to the point of being directly useable in design. Recently, two of the methods were transcribed into computer software for use with personal computers.

Halford, Gary R.

Radiation model predictions and validation using LDEF data

Radiation dosimetry aboard LDEF, as well as post-flight measurements of the radioactivity induced in numerous LDEF spacecraft components, provide unique data for evaluating the accuracy of current models for predicting both the space radiation environments (trapped proton intensity, spectra, and directionality; cosmic ray fluence) and the radiation environments induced in spacecraft components (fluence, energy spectra, secondary particle, linear energy transfer, etc.). By determining the accuracy of such models using LDEF data, and with model updates where required, improved radiation environment predictions can be made for future missions, which in turn allows improved predictions for specific radiation effects for future spacecraft components (single event upsets of microelectronics, radiation damage to focal plane arrays, noise in sensitive instrumentation, etc.). Herein, the status and results from radiation model predictions and comparisons with LDEF data is given. The calculations are made using radiation transport codes coupled with a 3-D geometry/mass model of LDEF, together with current models of the space radiation environment.

Armstrong, T. W.

LagRST Model Predictions of a Wingtip Vortex Floweld

The performance of the new LagRST models is compared with curvature corrected eddyviscosity RANS models. The Reynolds-stress models provide very good predictions of thisow without any additional curvature corrections. Along with comparison of predictionsof the vortex itself, some of the other measurements included in the oweld are comparedwith the predictions in the wake and over the wing. Dierences in predictions between thevarious RANS models in the wake region are small - not substantial, and all predictionsare in line with experimental measurements from 0.005c to 0.67c downstream of the trailingedge, at odds with what self-similar wake analysis would predict.

wing tip vortices

A New Objective Technique for Verifying Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models

This report presents a new objective technique to verify predictions of the sea-breeze phenomenon over east-central Florida by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The Contour Error Map (CEM) technique identifies sea-breeze transition times in objectively-analyzed grids of observed and forecast wind, verifies the forecast sea-breeze transition times against the observed times, and computes the mean post-sea breeze wind direction and speed to compare the observed and forecast winds behind the sea-breeze front. The CEM technique is superior to traditional objective verification techniques and previously-used subjective verification methodologies because: It is automated, requiring little manual intervention, It accounts for both spatial and temporal scales and variations, It accurately identifies and verifies the sea-breeze transition times, and It provides verification contour maps and simple statistical parameters for easy interpretation. The CEM uses a parallel lowpass boxcar filter and a high-order bandpass filter to identify the sea-breeze transition times in the observed and model grid points. Once the transition times are identified, CEM fits a Gaussian histogram function to the actual histogram of transition time differences between the model and observations. The fitted parameters of the Gaussian function subsequently explain the timing bias and variance of the timing differences across the valid comparison domain. Once the transition times are all identified at each grid point, the CEM computes the mean wind direction and speed during the remainder of the day for all times and grid points after the sea-breeze transition time. The CEM technique performed quite well when compared to independent meteorological assessments of the sea-breeze transition times and results from a previously published subjective evaluation. The algorithm correctly identified a forecast or observed sea-breeze occurrence or absence 93% of the time during the two- month evaluation period from July and August 2000. Nearly all failures in CEM were the result of complex precipitation features (observed or forecast) that contaminated the wind field, resulting in a false identification of a sea-breeze transition. A qualitative comparison between the CEM timing errors and the subjectively determined observed and forecast transition times indicate that the algorithm performed very well overall. Most discrepancies between the CEM results and the subjective analysis were again caused by observed or forecast areas of precipitation that led to complex wind patterns. The CEM also failed on a day when the observed sea- breeze transition affected only a very small portion of the verification domain. Based on the results of CEM, the RAMS tended to predict the onset and movement of the sea-breeze transition too early and/or quickly. The domain-wide timing biases provided by CEM indicated an early bias on 30 out of 37 days when both an observed and forecast sea breeze occurred over the same portions of the analysis domain. These results are consistent with previous subjective verifications of the RAMS sea breeze predictions. A comparison of the mean post-sea breeze winds indicate that RAMS has a positive wind-speed bias for .all days, which is also consistent with the early bias in the sea-breeze transition time since the higher wind speeds resulted in a faster inland penetration of the sea breeze compared to reality.

Case, Jonathan L.

Predictive Modeling of Fast-Curing Thermosets in Nozzle-Based Extrusion

This work presents an approach to modeling the dynamic spreading and curing behavior of thermosets in nozzle-based extrusions. Thermosets cover a wide range of materials, some of which permit low-temperature processing with subsequent high-temperature and high-strength working properties. Extruding thermosets may overcome the limited working temperatures and strengths of conventional thermoplastic materials used in additive manufacturing. This project aims to produce technology for the fabrication of thermoset-based structures leveraging advances made in nozzle-based extrusion, such as fused deposition modeling (FDM), material jetting, and direct writing. Understanding the synergistic interactions between spreading and fast curing of extruded thermosetting materials will provide essential insights for applications that require accurate dimensional controls, such as additive manufacturing [1], [2] and centrifugal coating/forming [3]. Two types of thermally curing thermosets -- one being a soft silicone (Ecoflex 0050) and the other being a toughened epoxy (G/Flex) -- served as the test materials in this work to obtain models for cure kinetics and viscosity. The developed models align with extensive measurements made with differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and rheology. DSC monitors the change in the heat of reaction, which reflects the rate and degree of cure at different crosslinking stages. Rheology measures the change in complex viscosity, shear moduli, yield stress, and other properties dictated by chemical composition. By combining DSC and rheological measurements, it is possible to establish a set of models profiling the cure kinetics and chemorheology without prior knowledge of chemical composition, which is usually necessary for sophisticated mechanistic modeling. In this work, we conducted both isothermal and dynamic measurements with both DSC and rheology. With the developed models, numerical simulations yielded predictions of diameter and height of droplets, along with width and height of extruded lines cured at varied temperatures. Experimental results carried out on a goniometric platform and a nozzle-based 3D printer showed agreement with the numerical simulations. Finally, this presentation will show how the models are adaptable to the planning of tool paths and designs in additive manufacturing.

Xie, Jingjin

SDO/AIA Light Curves and Implications for Coronal Heating: Model Predictions

It seems largely agreed that many coronal loops---those observed at a temperature of about 1 MK---are bundles of unresolved strands that are heated by storms of impulsive nanoflares. The nature of coronal heating in hotter loops and in the very important but largely ignored diffuse component of active regions is much less clear. Is it also impulsive or is it quasi steady? The spectacular new data from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) telescopes on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) offer an excellent opportunity to address this question. We analyze the light curves of coronal loops and the diffuse corona in 6 different AIA channels and compare them with the predicted light curves from theoretical models. Light curves in the different AIA channels reach their peak intensities with predictable orderings as a function the nanoflare storm properties. We show that while some sets of light curves exhibit clear evidence of cooling after nanoflare storms, other cases are less straightforward to interpret. Complications arise because of line-of-sight integration through many different structures, the broadband nature of the AIA channels, and because physical properties can change substantially depending on the magnitude of the energy release. Nevertheless, the light curves exhibit predictable and understandable patterns. This presentation emphasizes the modeling aspects of our study. A companion presentation emphasizes the observations.

Klimchuk, James A.

Examining transport and integrated modeling predictive capabilities for negative-triangularity scenarios

This paper investigates the predictive capabilities of TGYRO and TGLF models in assessing the performance of negative triangularity (NT) plasmas compared to positive triangularity (PT) plasmas in fusion devices. TGYRO predicts kinetic profiles, while TGLF analyzes turbulent transport. The study reveals that TGYRO reasonably predicts NT profiles similar to PT, although it overpredicts the high-power scenarios where there is increased experimental MHD activity. TGLF analysis finds reduced linear growth rates in NT and altered flux spectra relative to PT. Additionally, the TGLF SAT0 saturation model is observed to predict high-k transport and a reduction of particle transport with the electron temperature gradient. These findings are further corroborated by core-pedestal modeling using the Stability Transport Equilibrium Pedestal workflow, showing stronger confinement improvements in NT, particularly at higher power densities for the SAT0 saturation model. Furthermore, the study underscores the importance of accurately capturing turbulence saturation mechanisms for NT in order to project its performance accurately in fusion reactors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Application of cyclic damage accumulation life prediction model to high temperature components

A high temperature, low cycle fatigue life prediction method was developed. This method, Cyclic Damage Accumulation (CDA), was developed for use in predicting the crack initiation lifetime of gas turbine engine materials, but it can be applied to other materials as well. The method is designed to account for the effects on creep-fatigue life of complex loading such as thermomechanical fatigue, hold periods, waveshapes, mean stresses, multiaxiality, cumulative damage, coatings, and environmental attack. Several features of this model were developed to make it practical for application to actual component analysis, such as the ability to handle nonisothermal loading (including TMF), arbitrary cycle paths, and multiple damage modes. The CDA life prediction model was derived from extensive specimen tests conducted on cast nickel-base superalloy B1900 + Hf. These included both monotonic tests (tensile and creep) and strain-controlled fatigue experiments (uniaxial, biaxial, TMF, mixed creep-fatigue, and controlled mean stress). Additional specimen tests were conducted on wrought INCO 718 to verify the applicability of the final CDA model to other high-temperature alloys. The model will be available to potential users in the near future in the form of a FORTRAN-77 computer program.

Nelson, Richard S.

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

This program focuses on predicting the lives of two types of strain-tolerant and oxidation-resistant thermal barrier coating (TBC) systems that are produced by commercial coating suppliers to the gas turbine industry. The plasma-sprayed TBC system is composed of a low pressure, plasma sprayed applied, oxidation resistant NiCrAlY bond coating. The other system is an air plasma sprayed yttria (8 percent) partially stabilized zirconia insulative layer.

Strangman, T. E.

Geographic source attribution of honey by strontium isotope analyses: Latvia and India measurements compared to model predictions in a feasibility study

Strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) can be used to determine the geographic origin of agricultural products. Here, in this study, we measured the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of honey samples from Richland, WA, USA, Latvia, and India, and compared the results to published 87 Sr/ 86 Sr from surrounding areas and values predicted based upon a random forest isoscape model (Bataille et al., 2020). While the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of the honey samples compared well with previously published data, the model did not accurately predict the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of the honey samples, demonstrating that further refinement of the model would be beneficial. Because Sr cycling in terrestrial ecosystems is complex, the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of honey is likely to reflect several sources (e.g., nectar, surface water, dust) and may change over time. In order to accurately predict the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of honey, models must consider local geology, ecology, and bee behavior. Additional research examining how Sr is incorporated into honey is needed to inform models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES

Turbulence Model Predictions of Strongly Curved Flow in a U-Duct

The ability of three types of turbulence models to accurately predict the effects of curvature on the flow in a U-duct is studied. An explicit algebraic stress model performs slightly better than one- or two-equation linear eddy viscosity models, although it is necessary to fully account for the variation of the production-to-dissipation-rate ratio in the algebraic stress model formulation. In their original formulations, none of these turbulence models fully captures the suppressed turbulence near the convex wall, whereas a full Reynolds stress model does. Some of the underlying assumptions used in the development of algebraic stress models are investigated and compared with the computed flowfield from the full Reynolds stress model. Through this analysis, the assumption of Reynolds stress anisotropy equilibrium used in the algebraic stress model formulation is found to be incorrect in regions of strong curvature. By the accounting for the local variation of the principal axes of the strain rate tensor, the explicit algebraic stress model correctly predicts the suppressed turbulence in the outer part of the boundary layer near the convex wall.

Rumsey, Christopher L.

The effect of changes in space shuttle parameters on the NASA/MSFC multilayer diffusion model predictions of surface HCl concentrations

A method for formulating these changes into the model input parameters using a preprocessor program run on a programed data processor was implemented. The results indicate that any changes in the input parameters are small enough to be negligible in comparison to meteorological inputs and the limitations of the model and that such changes will not substantially increase the number of meteorological cases for which the model will predict surface hydrogen chloride concentrations exceeding public safety levels.

Glasser, M. E.