A nonlinear adaptive estimation recursive algorithm.
Nonlinear adaptive and recursive algorithm to estimate unknown probability density from independent sample sequence
Lainiotis, D. G.↗
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Estimation of effective stimuli in probability learning
Perceived and responded to discriminative stimuli identification in probability learning, using parameter free model of event pattern association strength
Harrington, R. T.↗
Phase 1 of the earth resources data analysis program
Research completed in the Earth Resources Data Analysis Program is discussed along with recommendations for future study. Projects discussed include use of the Cholesky decomposition in feature selection and classification algorithms; optimal feature selection and extraction, probability density estimation and nonparametric classifiers; use of spatial information in classification; and model for crop row reflectance. The installation of LARSYS on the ICSA's IBM 370/155 is discussed, and a list of technical reports is included.
Source record↗
Bistatic-radar estimation of surface-slope probability distributions with applications to the moon.
A method for extracting surface-slope frequency distributions from bistatic-radar data has been developed and applied to the lunar surface. Telemetry transmissions from orbiting Apollo spacecraft were received on the earth after reflection from the lunar surface. The echo-frequency spectrum was related analytically to the probability distribution of lunar slopes. Standard regression techniques were used to solve the inverse problem of finding slope distributions from observed echo-frequency spectra. Data taken simultaneously at two wavelengths, 13 and 116 cm, have yielded diverse slope statistics.
Parker, M. N.↗
Method of identifying clusters representing statistical dependencies in multivariate data
Approach is first to cluster and then to compute spatial boundaries for resulting clusters. Next step is to compute, from set of Monte Carlo samples obtained from scrambled data, estimates of probabilities of obtaining at least as many points within boundaries as were actually observed in original data.
Borucki, W. J.↗
Earth resources data analysis program, phase 2
The efforts and findings of the Earth Resources Data Analysis Program are summarized. Results of a detailed study of the needs of EOD with respect to an applications development system (ADS) for the analysis of remotely sensed data, including an evaluation of four existing systems with respect to these needs are described. Recommendations as to possible courses for EOD to follow to obtain a viable ADS are presented. Algorithmic development comprised of several subtasks is discussed. These subtasks include the following: (1) two algorithms for multivariate density estimation; (2) a data smoothing algorithm; (3) a method for optimally estimating prior probabilities of unclassified data; and (4) further applications of the modified Cholesky decomposition in various calculations. Little effort was expended on task 3, however, two reports were reviewed.
Source record↗
Cost performance satellite design using queueing theory
The Poisson arrival model was used to determine the effects of limiting the number of channels for a disaster warning satellite. State probabilities and delay probabilities were estimated for several values of the number of channels (C) for arrival and service rates obtained from disaster warnings issued by the National Weather Service. The results predicted by the queueing model were compared with the results of a digital computer simulation.
Hein, G. F.↗
A reliability-based cost effective fail-safe design procedure
The authors have developed a methodology for cost-effective fatigue design of structures subject to random fatigue loading. A stochastic model for fatigue crack propagation under random loading has been discussed. Fracture mechanics is then used to estimate the parameters of the model and the residual strength of structures with cracks. The stochastic model and residual strength variations have been used to develop procedures for estimating the probability of failure and its changes with inspection frequency. This information on reliability is then used to construct an objective function in terms of either a total weight function or cost function. A procedure for selecting the design variables, subject to constraints, by optimizing the objective function has been illustrated by examples. In particular, optimum design of stiffened panel has been discussed.
Hanagud, S.↗
Cost reduction potential of the DSN data base
The cost of the DSN data base can be reduced by computerizing and unifying the current multiplicity of separate manual, computer, and hybrid data bases. Savings would accrue from eliminating all manual system costs, increasing efficiency in data base implementation and maintenance-and-operation, and increasing data accuracy. By applying a simple mathematical savings model to current data base costs, this study estimates the probable range of net ten-year savings. The minimum net savings, under the assumptions of the study, are calculated as $7.5 million.
Mckenzie, M.↗
Size distribution of particles in planetary rings
Harris (1975) has suggested that the maximum size of particles in a planetary ring is controlled by collisional fragmentation rather than tidal stress. While this conclusion is probably true, estimated radius limits must be revised upward from Harris' values of a few kilometers by at least an order of magnitude. Accretion of particles within the Roche limit is also possible. These considerations affect theories concerning the evolution of Saturn's rings, of the moon, and of possible former satellites of Mercury and Venus. In the case of Saturn's rings, comparison of various theoretical scenarios with available observational evidence suggests that the rings formed from the breakup of larger particles rather than from original condensation as small particles. This process implies a distribution of particle sizes in Saturn's rings possibly ranging up to about 100 km but with most of the cross section in centimeter-scale particles.
Greenberg, R.↗
Determination of the Solar Energy Microclimate of the United States Using Satellite Data
The determination of total solar energy reaching the ground over the United States using measurements from meteorological satellites as the basic data set is examined. The methods of satellite data processing are described. Uncertainty analysis and comparison of results with well calibrated surface pyranometers are used to estimate the probable error in the satellite-based determination of ground insolation. It is 10 to 15 percent for daily information, and about 5 percent for monthly values. However, the natural space and time variability of insolation is much greater than the uncertainty in the method. The most important aspect of the satellite-based technique is the ability to determine the solar energy reaching the ground over small areas where no other measurements are available. Thus, it complements the widely spaced solar radiation measurement network of ground stations.
Vonderharr, T. H.↗
A hill-sliding strategy for initialization of Gaussian clusters in the multidimensional space
A hill sliding technique was devised to extract Gaussian clusters from the multivariate probability density estimate of sample data for the first step of iterative unsupervised classification. Each cluster was assumed to posses a unimodal normal distribution. A clustering function proposed distinguished elements of a cluster under formation from the rest in the feature space. Initial clusters were extracted one by one according to the hill sliding tactics. A dimensionless cluster compactness parameter was proposed as a universal measure of cluster goodness and used satisfactorily in test runs with LANDSAT multispectral scanner data. The normalized divergence, defined by the cluster divergence divided by the entropy of the entire sample data, was utilized as a general separability measure between clusters. An overall clustering objective function was set forth in terms of cluster covariance matrices, from which the cluster compactness measure could be deduced. Minimal improvement of initial data partitioning was evaluated by this objective function in eliminating scattered sparse data points. The hill sliding clustering technique developed herein has the potential applicability to decomposition any multivariate mixture distribution into a number of unimodal distributions when an appropriate distribution function to the data set is employed.
Park, J. K.↗
Crop calendars for the US, USSR, and Canada in support of the early warning project
New crop calendars are produced for U.S. regions where several years of periodic growth stage observations are available on a CRD basis. Preexisting crop calendars from the LACIE are also collected as are U.S. crop calendars currently being created for the Foreign Commodities Production Forecast project. For the U.S.S.R. and Canada, no new crop calendars are created because no new data are available. Instead, LACIE crop calendars are compared against simulated normal daily temperatures and against the Robertson wheat and Williams barley phenology models run on the simulated normal temperatures. Severe inconsistencies are noted and discussed. For the U.S.S.R., spring and fall planting dates can probably be estimated accurately from satellite or meteorological data. For the starter model problem, the Feyerherm spring wheat model is recommended for spring planted small grains, and the results of an analysis are presented. For fall planted small grains, use of normal planting dates supplemented by spectral observation of an early stage is recommended. The importance of nonmeteorological factors as they pertain to meteorological factors in determining fall planting is discussed. Crop calendar data available at the Johnson Space Center for the U.S., U.S.S.R., Canada, and other countries are inventoried.
Hodges, T.↗
Reliability analysis of the F-8 digital fly-by-wire system
The F-8 Digital Fly-by-Wire (DFBW) flight test program intended to provide the technology for advanced control systems, giving aircraft enhanced performance and operational capability is addressed. A detailed analysis of the experimental system was performed to estimated the probabilities of two significant safety critical events: (1) loss of primary flight control function, causing reversion to the analog bypass system; and (2) loss of the aircraft due to failure of the electronic flight control system. The analysis covers appraisal of risks due to random equipment failure, generic faults in design of the system or its software, and induced failure due to external events. A unique diagrammatic technique was developed which details the combinatorial reliability equations for the entire system, promotes understanding of system failure characteristics, and identifies the most likely failure modes. The technique provides a systematic method of applying basic probability equations and is augmented by a computer program written in a modular fashion that duplicates the structure of these equations.
Brock, L. D.↗
The polar ionosphere as a source of energetic magnetospheric plasma
Data are presented on an additional ionospheric source composed of ions flowing upward out of the high latitude polar cap with energies in the range of approximately 10 eV to more than about 100 eV. The data are from the energetic ion composition spectrometer (EICS) on board the Dynamics Explorer-1 satellite, launched in August 1981. It is noted that the results presented are not inconsistent with the existence of a polar wind of the type predicted by Axford (1968) since ions with energies less than about 1 eV would have been excluded from the instrument by the generally positive vehicle potential. The results suggest that the polar wind is either modified in mass composition and energy by some as yet unidentified process or is supplemented by a new unrelated source of plasma. What is more, owing to the higher energies, the energetic polar cap ions described here enter the plasma sheet at greater distances than Cowley (1980) estimated and probably represent a significant source of plasma for the maintenance of the plasma sheet.
Shelley, E. G.↗
Wind shear and vortex wake research in UK, 1982
A wind shear and vortex wake and their impact on aircraft were investigated. The systems and advice to help pilots, and rational scientific methods to assist in advising certification authorities and those interested in improving flight safety were developed. Wind Shear and Vortex Wakes are related, they are both invisible enemies of aircraft in the form of large disturbances in the atmosphere, both cause major accidents. Problems of building wakes at airports are is considered. Research on wind shear was initiated by the American FAA following the Boston, New York and Denver accidents to civil airliners. This resulted in: useful advice to pilots about wind shear; better attempts by the meteorologists at forecasting wind shear conditions; and useful ideas for wind shear measurement and warning systems. Three major research tasks are outstanding: (1) Worldwide measurements to give reliable estimates of probability and details of the forms of large wind shears; (2) Developments of real time wind shear measuring systems for ground or airborne use; and (3) Establishing relationships between measured wind shear and the potential hazard to an aircraft, or class of aircraft.
Alan A. Woodfield↗
Cloud encounter statistics in the 28.5-43.5 KFT altitude region from four years of GASP observations
The results of an analysis of cloud encounter measurements taken at aircraft flight altitudes as part of the Global Atmospheric Sampling Program are summarized. The results can be used in estimating the probability of cloud encounter and in assessing the economic feasibility of laminar flow control aircraft along particular routes. The data presented clearly show the tropical circulation and its seasonal migration; characteristics of the mid-latitude regime, such as the large-scale traveling cyclones in the winter and increased convective activity in the summer, can be isolated in the data. The cloud encounter statistics are shown to be consistent with the mid-latitude cyclone model. A model for TIC (time-in-clouds), a cloud encounter statistic, is presented for several common airline routes.
Jasperson, W. H.↗
QUEST - A Bayesian adaptive psychometric method
An adaptive psychometric procedure that places each trial at the current most probable Bayesian estimate of threshold is described. The procedure takes advantage of the common finding that the human psychometric function is invariant in form when expressed as a function of log intensity. The procedure is simple, fast, and efficient, and may be easily implemented on any computer.
Watson, A. B.↗