Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Projection and prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13

Multiwavelength Observations of a New Redback Millisecond Pulsar 4FGL J1910.7-5320

We present the study of multiwavelength observations of an unidentified Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) source, 4FGL J1910.7-5320, a new candidate redback millisecond pulsar binary. In the 4FGL 95% error region of 4FGL J1910.7-5320, we find a possible binary with a 8.36 hr orbital period from the Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey, confirmed by optical spectroscopy using the SOAR telescope. This optical source was recently independently discovered as a redback pulsar by the TRAPUM project, confirming our prediction. We fit the optical spectral energy distributions of 4FGL J1910.7-5320 with a blackbody model, inferring a maximum distance of 4.1 kpc by assuming that the companion fills its Roche lobe with a radius of R = 0.7 R ⊙ . Using a 12.6 ks Chandra X-ray observation, we identified an X-ray counterpart for 4FGL J1910.7-5320, with a spectrum that can be described by an absorbed power law with a photon index of 1.0 ± 0.4. The spectrally hard X-ray emission shows tentative evidence for orbital variability. Using more than 12 yr of Fermi-LAT data, we refined the position of the γ-ray source, and the optical candidate still lies within the 68% positional error circle. In addition to 4FGL J1910.7-5320, we find a variable optical source with a periodic signal of 4.28 hr inside the 4FGL catalog 95% error region of another unidentified Fermi source, 4FGL J2029.5-4237. However, the γ-ray source does not have a significant X-ray counterpart in an 11.7 ks Chandra observation, with a 3σ flux upper limit of 2.4 × 10 -14 erg cm -2 s -1 (0.3–7 keV). Moreover, the optical source is outside our updated Fermi-LAT 95% error circle. These observational facts all suggest that this new redback millisecond pulsar powers the gamma-ray source 4FGL J1910.7-5320 while 4FGL J2029.5-4237 is unlikely the γ-ray counterpart to the 4.28 hr variable.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Finding relationships between effort and other variables in the SEL

Estimating the amount of effort required for a software development project is one of the major aspects of resource estimation for that project. In this study, the relationship between effort and other variables for 23 Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) projects that were developed for NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center was examined. These variables fell into two categories: those which can be determined in the early stages of project development and may therefore be useful in a baseline equation for predicting effort in future projects, and those which can be used mainly to characterize or evaluate effort requirements and thus enhance the understanding of the software development process in this environment. Some results of the analyses are presented.

Basili, Victor R.↗

Challenges for future space power systems

Forecasts of space power needs are presented. The needs fall into three broad categories: survival, self-sufficiency, and industrialization. The cost of delivering payloads to orbital locations and from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to Mars are determined. Future launch cost reductions are predicted. From these projections the performances necessary for future solar and nuclear space power options are identified. The availability of plentiful cost effective electric power and of low cost access to space are identified as crucial factors in the future extension of human presence in space.

Brandhorst, Henry W., Jr.↗

The effects of training on errors of perceived direction in perspective displays

An experiment was conducted to determine the effects of training on the characteristic direction errors that are observed when subjects estimate exocentric directions on perspective displays. Changes in five subjects' perceptual errors were measured during a training procedure designed to eliminate the error. The training was provided by displaying to each subject both the sign and the direction of his judgment error. The feedback provided by the error display was found to decrease but not eliminate the error. A lookup table model of the source of the error was developed in which the judgement errors were attributed to overestimates of both the pitch and the yaw of the viewing direction used to produce the perspective projection. The model predicts the quantitative characteristics of the data somewhat better than previous models did. A mechanism is proposed for the observed learning, and further tests of the model are suggested.

Tharp, Gregory K.↗

Monolithic and mechanical multijunction space solar cells

Monolithic and mechanically stacked tandem solar cells have been fabricated with encouraging AM0 efficiencies summarized as: monolithic GaAs/Ge: 19.1 percent (28 C, 4 sq cm); monolithic InP/Ga0.47In0.53As: 22.2 percent (25 C, 0.296 sq cm); monolithic AlGaAs/GaAs/InGaAs: 27.6 percent (80 C, 0.2 sq cm, 100 X); mechanically stacked GaAs/GaSb: 30.8 percent (25 C, 0.049 sq cm, 100 X); and mechanically stacked GaAs/CuInSe2: 23.1 percent (25 C, 4 sq cm). Significant improvement in tandem cell efficiencies nearing to theoretical predictions has been projected with the improvement in cell material quality and processing. Thin-film cells offer improved specific power. It is pointed out that both the monolithic and mechanically stacked cells have their own problems as to size, processing, current-voltage matching, weight, etc. More information is needed on the effect of temperature and radiation on the cell performance. Proper reference cells and full spectrum range simulators are required to measure efficiencies correctly.

Jain, Raj K.↗

Evaluation of dual flow thrust vectored nozzles with exhaust stream impingement

The main objective of this project was to predict the expansion wave/oblique shock wave structure in an under-expanded jet expanding from a convergent nozzle. The shock structure was predicted by combining the calculated curvature of the free pressure boundary with principles and governing equations relating to oblique shock wave and expansion wave interaction. The procedure was then continued until the shock pattern repeated itself. A mathematical model was then formulated and written in FORTRAN to calculate the oblique shock/expansion wave structure within the jet. In order to study shock waves in expanding jets, Schlieren photography, a form of flow visualization, was employed. Thirty-six Schlieren photographs of jets from both a straight and 15 degree nozzle were taken. An iterative procedure was developed to calculate the shock structure within the jet and predict the non-dimensional values of Prandtl primary wavelength (w/rn), distance to Mach Disc (Ld) and Mach Disc radius (rd). These values were then compared to measurements taken from Schlieren photographs and experimental results. The results agreed closely to measurements from Schlieren photographs and previously obtained data. This method provides excellent results for pressure ratios below that at which a Mach Disc first forms. Calculated values of non-dimensional distance to the Mach Disc (Ld) agreed closely to values measured from Schlieren photographs and published data. The calculated values of non-dimensional Mach Disc radius (rd), however, deviated from published data by as much as 25 percent at certain pressure ratios.

Carpenter, Thomas W.↗

Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Orbit Design and Autonomous Maneuvers

The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission must meet the challenge of measuring worldwide precipitation every three hours. The GPM core spacecraft, part of a constellation, will be required to maintain a circular orbit in a high drag environment at a near-critical inclination. Analysis shows that a mean orbit altitude of 407 km is necessary to prevent ground track repeating. Combined with goals to minimize maneuver operation impacts to science data collection and to enable reasonable long-term orbit predictions, the GPM project has decided to fly the GSFC autonomous maneuver system, AutoCon(TM). This system is a follow-up version of the highly successful New Millennium Program technology flown onboard the Earth Observing-1 formation flying mission. This paper presents the driving science requirements and goals of the GPM mission and shows how they will be met. Selection of the mean semi-major axis, eccentricity, and the AV budget for several ballistic properties are presented. The architecture of the autonomous maneuvering system to meet the goals and requirements is presented along with simulations using GPM parameters. Additionally, the use of the GPM autonomous system to mitigate possible collision avoidance and to aid other spacecraft systems during navigation outages is explored.

Folta, David↗

Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Orbit Design and Autonomous Maneuvers

The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission will meet a challenge of measuring worldwide precipitation every three hours. The GPM spacecraft, part of a constellation, will be required to maintain a circular orbit in a high drag environment to accomplish this challenge. Analysis by the Flight Dynamics Analysis Branch has shown that the prime orbit altitude of 40% is necessary to prevent ground track repeating. Combined with goals to minimize maneuver impacts to science data collection and enabling reasonable long-term orbit predictions, the GPM project has decided to fly an autonomous maneuver system. This system is a derivative of the successful New Millennium Program technology flown onboard the Earth Observing-1 mission. This paper presents the driving science requirements and goals of the mission and shows how they will be met. Analysis of the orbit optimization and the AV requirements for several ballistic properties are presented. The architecture of the autonomous maneuvering system to meet the goals and requirements is presented along with simulations using a GPM prototype. Additionally, the use of the GPM autonomous system to mitigate possible collision avoidance and to aid other spacecraft systems during navigation outages is explored.

Folta, David↗

A Virtual Laboratory for the 4 Bed Molecular Sieve of the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly

Ongoing work to improve water and carbon dioxide separation systems to be used on crewed space vehicles combines sub-scale systems testing and multi-physics simulations. Thus, as part of NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) program and the Life Support Systems Project (LSSP), fully predictive COMSOL Multiphysics models of the Four Bed Molecular Sieve (4BMS) of the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) on the International Space Station (ISS) have been developed. This Virtual Laboratory is being used to help reduce mass, power, and volume requirements for exploration missions. In this paper we describe current and planned modeling developments in the area of carbon dioxide removal to support future missions as well as the resolution of anomalies observed in the ISS CDRA.

Coker, Robert↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-35698-DND

The NASA Langley Atmospheric Science Data Center (ASDC) is using the Esri ArcGIS Platform to improve data discoverability, accessibility and interoperability to meet their diversified userbase. As a NASA Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC), ASDC is actively working to provide their atmospheric datasets as ArcGIS Image Services by leveraging the ArcGIS multidimensional suite of tools. This presentation will provide a brief overview of the ArcGIS Platform implementation at ASDC, an overview of the ArcGIS collaboration occurring among DAACs, as well as NASA Earth Science data application with partnering projects like the Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER).

Matthew Tisdale↗

Study of Fallout Metrics for Contamination Analysis

A challenge present in assessing contamination accumulation on many missions is predicting fallout during ground processing given the multiple and various orientations possible for surfaces such as optics and instruments. The best practice assumption has been to quantify particle build up on vertical surfaces as approximately 1/10 that of horizontal surfaces. This fractional relation is important when considering contamination allocations necessary to meet cleanliness requirements since spacecraft can be in many orientations during integration and testing. There is insufficient data to provide confidence in the 1/10 approximation, yet its use can have a significant effect on mission end of life contamination level predictions, leading to expenditures of precious resources to meet mission requirements. A study was conducted to compare and analyze the fallout in horizontal and vertical orientations. Silicon wafers were deployed in four different facilities. Data sets from a long term deployment of wafers were analyzed from a cleanroom facility housing integration of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) as well as from a shorter term deployment of wafers in three cleanroom facilities at Goddard Space Flight Center with lower activity. There are many variables influencing the relationship between fallout on vertical and horizontal wafers, including wafer position with respect to air flow, air changes in the facility, duration of exposure, and activity workload. The goal of this continuing study is to develop a tool to inform particulate accumulation predictions for future projects.

Contamination↗

(Project 18-15502) Reducing Uncertainty in Radionuclide Transport Prediction Using Multiple Environmental Tracers (Final Report)

In order to successfully site and design a nuclear waste disposal facility, DOE scientists are required to show safe containment of the radioactive waste for up to 1 million years. A significant hurdle to accurately and convincingly demonstrating disposal safety is predicting the fate of radioactive elements once they enter the groundwater system surrounding the repository. These predictions are often made with computer models, which contain accurate physics of groundwater movement and chemical reactions that occur during groundwater flow. As computer power increases, the physics and chemistry of these computer simulators can become more and more realistic and the physically based error decreases. However, the ability of these computer models to provide accurate predictions in a specific place, over long time periods, requires the scientists and engineers to know the subsurface properties of the Earth that control groundwater movement. In particular, groundwater scientists and engineers need to know the groundwater fluid velocity, which can change over time and strongly vary with location within the groundwater system. Because the Earth’s subsurface cannot be directly seen, and can only be sampled at drilling locations, the properties of the groundwater system are never known completely, and computer models of groundwater transport will always have some amount of uncertainty. This project’s principal goal was to use chemicals and isotope “tracers”, which have been introduced to the groundwater system by natural processes over long time periods, to help inform computer models of the groundwater velocity and subsurface properties. The goal was to calculate how much better predictions of groundwater transport were when these “tracers” were used to inform the computer models.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Predicted range expansion of Prostephanus truncatus (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae) under projected climate change scenarios

Abstract The larger grain borer (Prostephanus truncatus [Horn] [Coleoptera: Bostrichidae]) is a wood-boring insect native to Central America and adapted to stored maize and cassava. It was accidentally introduced to Tanzania and became a pest across central Africa. Unlike many grain pests, P. truncatus populations can establish and move within forests. Consequently, novel infestations can occur without human influence. The objectives of our study were to (i) develop an updated current suitability projection for P. truncatus, (ii) assess its potential future distribution under different climate change scenarios, and (iii) identify climate variables that best inform the model. We used WALLACE and MaxEnt to predict potential global distribution by incorporating bioclimatic variables and occurrence records. Future models were projected for 2050 and 2070 with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 (low change) and 8.5 (high change). Distribution was most limited by high precipitation and cold temperatures. Globally, highly suitable areas (> 75%) primarily occurred along coastal and equatorial regions with novel areas in northern South America, India, southeastern Asia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, totaling 7% under current conditions. Highly suitable areas at RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 are estimated to increase to 12% and 15%, respectively, by 2050 and increase to 19% in 2070 under RCP 8.5. Centroids of highly suitable areas show distribution centers moving more inshore and away from the equator. Notably, the result is a range expansion, not a shift. Results can be used to decrease biosecurity risks through more spatially explicit and timely surveillance programs for targeting the exclusion of this pest.

Entomology↗

A Multiphysics Multiscale Simulation Platform for Damage, Environmental Degradation, and Life Prediction of CMCs in Extreme Environments

This project successfully developed a multiphysics, multiscale computational framework to enhance the design and development of CMCs, with a focus on modeling highly nonlinear, time-dependent damage mechanisms and material degradation under extreme conditions, such as those experienced in turbine service environments. The project made significant advances in improving our understanding of progressive damage, oxidative degradation, and time-dependent inelastic deformation in CMCs, with particular attention to the role of uncertainties in predictions. Key outcomes include the integration of advanced material characterization, uncertainty quantification, and multiphysics constitutive models to predict the behavior of CMCs over their service life. A novel multiscale methodology was employed, which integrated microscale constituent behaviors with structural-scale responses, enabling the manufacturing defects in the microstructure that are prone to damage nucleation. Through the development of DL algorithms, the project advanced the prediction of damage initiation and crack propagation, taking into account the defect morphology and statistical variations across multiple scales. The framework was rigorously validated using thermomechanical experiments, which tested CMCs under various mechanical loadings at elevated temperatures, further enhancing the model's predictive capability. Overall, the research outcomes have provided a more accurate, reliable method for predicting CMC component life, significantly advancing material design, and improving component reliability in extreme environments. This work has strong implications for the optimization of turbine components and other high-performance applications where CMCs are used.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Regional environmental controllers influence continental scale soil carbon stocks and future carbon dynamics

Abstract Understanding the influence of environmental factors on soil organic carbon (SOC) is critical for quantifying and reducing the uncertainty in carbon climate feedback projections under changing environmental conditions. We explored the effect of climatic variables, land cover types, topographic attributes, soil types and bedrock geology on SOC stocks of top 1 m depth across conterminous United States (US) ecoregions. Using 4559 soil profile observations and high-resolution data of environmental factors, we identified dominant environmental controllers of SOC stocks in 21 US ecoregions using geographically weighted regression. We used projected climatic data of SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios from GFDL-ESM 4 Earth System Model of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 to predict SOC stock changes across continental US between 2030 and 2100. Both baseline and predicted changes in SOC stocks were compared with SOC stocks represented in GFDL-ESM4 projections. Among 56 environmental predictors, we found 12 as dominant controllers across all ecoregions. The adjusted geospatial model with the 12 environmental controllers showed an R 2 of 0.48 in testing dataset. Higher precipitation and lower temperatures were associated with higher levels of SOC stocks in majority of ecoregions. Changes in land cover types (vegetation properties) was important in drier ecosystem as North American deserts, whereas soil types and topography were more important in American prairies. Wetlands of the Everglades was highly sensitive to projected temperature changes. The SOC stocks did not change under SSP126 until 2100, however SOC stocks decreased up to 21% under SSP585. Our results, based on environmental controllers of SOC stocks, help to predict impacts of changing environmental conditions on SOC stocks more reliably and may reduce uncertainties found in both, geospatial and Earth System Models. In addition, the description of different environmental controllers for US ecoregions can help to describe the scope and importance of global and local models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Projected Future Degradation in Air Quality is Caused by More Abundant Natural Aerosols in a Warmer World

Previous studies suggest that greenhouse gas-induced warming can lead to increased fine particulate matter concentrations and degraded air quality. However, significant uncertainties remain regarding the sign and magnitude of the response to warming and the underlying mechanisms. Here, we show that thirteen models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 all project an increase in global average concentrations of fine particulate matter in response to rising carbon dioxide concentrations, but the range of increase across models is wide. The two main contributors to this increase are increased abundance of dust and secondary organic aerosols via intensified West African monsoon and enhanced emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, respectively. Much of the inter-model spread is related to different treatment of biogenic volatile organic compounds. Our results highlight the importance of natural aerosols in degrading air quality under current warming, while also emphasizing that improved understanding of biogenic volatile organic compounds emissions due to climate change is essential for numerically assessing future air quality.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗

An expert system based software sizing tool, phase 2

A software tool was developed for predicting the size of a future computer program at an early stage in its development. The system is intended to enable a user who is not expert in Software Engineering to estimate software size in lines of source code with an accuracy similar to that of an expert, based on the program's functional specifications. The project was planned as a knowledge based system with a field prototype as the goal of Phase 2 and a commercial system planned for Phase 3. The researchers used techniques from Artificial Intelligence and knowledge from human experts and existing software from NASA's COSMIC database. They devised a classification scheme for the software specifications, and a small set of generic software components that represent complexity and apply to large classes of programs. The specifications are converted to generic components by a set of rules and the generic components are input to a nonlinear sizing function which makes the final prediction. The system developed for this project predicted code sizes from the database with a bias factor of 1.06 and a fluctuation factor of 1.77, an accuracy similar to that of human experts but without their significant optimistic bias.

Friedlander, David↗

A Grid Sourcing and Adaptation Study Using Unstructured Grids for Supersonic Boom Prediction

NASA created the Supersonics Project as part of the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Program to advance technology that will make a supersonic flight over land viable. Computational flow solvers have lacked the ability to accurately predict sonic boom from the near to far field. The focus of this investigation was to establish gridding and adaptation techniques to predict near-to-mid-field (<10 body lengths below the aircraft) boom signatures at supersonic speeds using the USM3D unstructured grid flow solver. The study began by examining sources along the body the aircraft, far field sourcing and far field boundaries. The study then examined several techniques for grid adaptation. During the course of the study, volume sourcing was introduced as a new way to source grids using the grid generation code VGRID. Two different methods of using the volume sources were examined. The first method, based on manual insertion of the numerous volume sources, made great improvements in the prediction capability of USM3D for boom signatures. The second method (SSGRID), which uses an a priori adaptation approach to stretch and shear the original unstructured grid to align the grid and pressure waves, showed similar results with a more automated approach. Due to SSGRID s results and ease of use, the rest of the study focused on developing a best practice using SSGRID. The best practice created by this study for boom predictions using the CFD code USM3D involved: 1) creating a small cylindrical outer boundary either 1 or 2 body lengths in diameter (depending on how far below the aircraft the boom prediction is required), 2) using a single volume source under the aircraft, and 3) using SSGRID to stretch and shear the grid to the desired length.

Carter, Melissa B.↗