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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
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DOE OSTI2024

Maximizing energy efficiency in wastewater treatment plants: A data-driven approach for waste heat recovery and an economic analysis using Organic Rankine Cycle and thermal energy storage

Maximizing energy efficiency through waste heat recovery (WHR) processes is crucial for sustainable and ecofriendly operations across multiple industries, notably in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). This work proposes a comprehensive approach for assessing the WHR feasibility in WWTPs, structured in two main objectives. Firstly, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model is developed to accurately predict WHR based on operational data, including biogas temperature, biogas pressure, daily production in kWh, and WHR values in kWh th . The second objective focuses on economically evaluating the WHR feasibility based on the estimated WHR values obtained by the ANN model, and then realistically assessing the economic feasibility of integrating the Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) and Seasonal Thermal Energy Storage (STES) systems. With an application to the As-Samra WWTP located in Jordan, the developed ANN model demonstrates promising results in the validation phase, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2206 kWh/day, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1674 kWh/day, and an R-squared (R 2 ) value of 68%. On the other hand, the economic analysis reveals that an optimal ORC system of 412.14 kW e capacity yields a Net Present Value (NPV) of 2.09 million US dollars, a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of 0.0749 USD/kWh, a Payback Period (PBP) of 4.8 years, and annual revenues of 428 kUSD. This work also investigates the techno-economic feasibility of integrating ORC-STES. Results indicate that the LCOE and PBP are highly affected by the ORC's capital cost, and integrating STES increases the LCOE to 0.0824 USD/kWh, rendering its integration with ORC infeasible. In conclusion, this study aims to advance the understanding and application of WHR in WWTPs, paving the way for more efficient and sustainable practices in the field.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mapping tree height in complex terrain of northern China using ultra-high-resolution images

Tree height is a key parameter for estimating forest biomass and carbon sequestration. In recent years, notable progress has been made in mapping tree height using satellite imagery. However, existing tree height products show low accuracy in mountainous and complex terrains, and few studies typically addressed tree height estimations in mountain areas. This study examines the Mentougou district of Beijing, China, characterized by complex terrain and mountainous landscapes. We analyzed two methods for estimating tree height: one using only spectral features and another combining spectral features with topographic factors (elevation, slope, aspect). We used 3-m resolution PlanetScope 8-band multispectral imagery, with 710 field-measured individual tree heights averaged to obtain 471 pixel-level tree height values as ground-truth, to develop tree height prediction models using eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) models. The results show that the XGBoost model consistently presented the highest accuracy for both methods evaluated. Specifically, the XGBoost model that combined spectral data with elevation and slope variables with an R² of 0.75 and an RMSE of 2.69 m. Using the XGBoost model, we generated the tree height map for the Mentougou area at 3 m resolution, showing tree heights ranging from 0.5 to 30.4 m, and the model’s prediction error standard deviations ranged from 2.50 to 4.71 m, indicating reliable performance across varied terrain. Additionally, we compared and evaluated the global tree height products, identifying limitations in the accuracy within complex terrains. This study demonstrates the potential for accurately predicting tree heights by combining high-resolution multispectral satellites with a terrain factor modeling approach.

Complex terrain↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification and optimization of precipitating hydrometeor parameters for winter precipitation in a cloud microphysics scheme

The precipitating hydrometeor parameters used in cloud microphysics schemes carry inherent uncertainties. The quantification of these uncertainties, together with parameter optimization, can significantly improve precipitation forecasts. This study investigates the effects of 13 parameters in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Double-Moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics scheme, which define the hydrometeor characteristics such as fall velocity–diameter and mass–diameter relationships, as well as the shape parameter of the drop size distribution for precipitating particles such as rain, snow, and graupel on simulated winter precipitation. A comparison between the model's pre-defined parameters and observations from the International Collaborative Experiments for the PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic winter games (ICE-POP 2018) field campaign reveals that the fall velocity–diameter relationship for rain, the mass–diameter relationships for snow and graupel, and the shape parameters for all precipitating particles in the WDM6 scheme deviate from the median values observed by the two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD). To quantify parameter sensitivities, a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of 256 simulations was conducted within parameter ranges constrained by 2DVD observations for three winter precipitation cases. Bayesian optimization was then applied to identify parameter sets that minimized the root mean square error (RMSE) for each case, achieving reductions of up to 30.2 %. These results demonstrate that ensemble-based uncertainty quantification and parameter optimization can help identify key parameters and provide a pathway to improving precipitation simulation performance. In addition, measurement sites can be strategically selected based on regions that show high sensitivity to variations in hydrometeor characteristic parameters.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adsorption of terbium (III) on DGA and LN resins: Thermodynamics, isotherms, and kinetics

Two commercially available extraction chromatography (EXC) resins containing N,N,N’,N’-tetra-n-octyldiglycolamide (DGA Resin, Normal, 50 – 100 μm) and Bis(2-ethylhexyl) phosphate (LN Resin, 100 – 150 μm) were used as adsorbents to study fundamental adsorption properties such as thermodynamic values, equilibrium isotherms, and kinetic uptake models for terbium(III) adsorption. Weight distribution ratios (D w ) for terbium on DGA and LN resins were measured using a [ 160 Tb]Tb 3+ radiometric tracer in nitric acid as a function of acidity, temperature, initial analyte concentration, and equilibrium time. The D w values showed increasing binding affinity for DGA resin at high nitric acid concentrations and decreasing binding affinity for LN resins. Thermodynamic studies for DGA and LN resins revealed that the Gibbs free energy (ΔG) increased consistently with temperature. To model equilibrium data, increasingly higher parameter equilibrium isotherm models (Henry (1) < Langmuir, Freundlich (2) < Redlich-Peterson (3) < Fritz-Schluender (4)) were compared on their root mean squared errors (RMSE) and adjusted determination coefficients to determine the most applicable model. In all cases, the empirical four-parameter Fritz-Schluender isotherm demonstrated a superior fit. Similar comparisons for reaction-based kinetic models (Pseudo-first-order < Pseudo-second-order < Pseudo-n-order) revealed that the higher-order PNO model yielded a superior fit of kinetic data for both resins. Furthermore, in some cases, adsorption isotherms and kinetic models could also be modeled by a lower-order model with minimal change in error parameters. Weber-Morris plots revealed that two linear sections are observed for each resin, where the first linear segment is attributed to fast (film diffusion) adsorption of terbium, followed by slower intraparticle diffusion of terbium through the pores as the rate-limiting step. Based on the Weber-Morris plot, both film and intraparticle diffusion are involved in controlling the kinetic rate of adsorption for DGA and LN resins.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2026

From observation to replication: machine-learning-driven quantification and replication of fine-scale fish kinematics and behavior

Long-term quantification of fish behavior is essential for aquatic ecology, wildlife telemetry, and biomechanical device development. However, the observation duration required to obtain reliable behavioral and kinematic metrics remains unclear, and few tools exist to physically reproduce natural swimming motion for controlled experimentation. We address these challenges by developing a generalizable framework that models behavioral reliability (Spearman–Brown reliability index) as a function of observation duration and derives metric-specific monitoring thresholds. Using juvenile white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) as a case study, we demonstrate that the minimum duration needed for reliable estimates varies substantially across kinematic features: to exceed a reliability of 0.8, total distance traveled requires 12 days, average curvature (mm?¹) 15 days, tail-beat frequency (Hz) 8 days, and average speed (body length/s) 17 days. We further bridge digital analysis and physical testing by developing a hardware-in-the-loop simulator that reconstructs machine-learning-derived swimming kinematics with high fidelity (correlation coefficient 0.98–0.99, RMSE 1.22–1.27 mm over a 5-minute segment). This platform enables realistic, repeatable motion stimuli for evaluating aquatic sensing technologies and bio-integrated devices under controlled conditions. Together, these contributions provide a scalable approach for designing long-term behavioral studies and a data-driven connection between ecological observation and robotic experimentation.

Hwang, SungJoo↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning based simultaneous control of air handling unit discharge air and condenser water temperatures set-point for minimized cooling energy in an office building

In this study, an artificial intelligence based real-time prediction and control model to optimize condenser water temperature and discharge air temperature (DAT) set-points in water-cooled air handling unit (AHU) system has been developed. EnergyPlus-MATLAB co-simulation has been conducted to analyze the developed model's effectiveness. Here, to develop artificial neural networks (ANN) model, embedded neural network objects in MATLAB was utilized. The developed model could decide an optimal temperature set-points based on outdoor air wet-bulb temperature to reflect the Korean climate context. As a result, the developed ANN prediction model showed the predictive performance of Cv(RMSE) of approximately 21%. Compared to the conventional fixed temperature algorithm, which fixes AHU DAT at 14°C and condenser water temperature at 32°C, the ANN based optimized control showed a 22% total cooling energy reduction. These results show that significant energy savings can be achieved by simultaneously controlling condenser water temperature and AHU DAT set-points considering Korean climatic characteristics using AI technologies such as ANN models.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

A deep learning-based Bayesian framework for high-resolution calibration of building energy models

Calibrating building energy models (BEMs), i.e., closing discrepancy between modeling and field measurements, is of significance to support its applications in building sustainability and resilience analysis. However, as being widely used in practice, current Bayesian calibration is mostly performed in low-resolution (annual or monthly), instead of high-resolution (hourly or sub-hourly), which is crucial to support emerging BEM applications, such as building-renewable energy integration (demand response) and smart control. This is attributable to the gaps in current Bayesian calibration process, including (1) difficulty in supporting reliable high-resolution calibration with over-parameterization and multi-solution issues, (2) inadequacy of meta-model to capture temporal building dynamics in high-resolution, and (3) excessive computational burdens of covariance matrix calculation in Bayesian inference. Therefore, to close these gaps, this research proposes a novel deep learning-based Bayesian calibration framework, involving pre-calibration mechanism, Long Short-Term Memory as surrogate models, and simplified covariance matrix calculation, to calibrate BEMs in high temporal resolution (i.e., hourly) with enhanced accuracy and computational efficiency. Finally, the case study demonstrates its effectiveness to match modeling outcomes with measurements and realize CV-RMSE of < 30 % and NMBE of < 6 % in hourly resolution, as well as a significant reduction of calibration time (by > 99 %, from > 600 h to ~ 1.5 h).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning-enhanced hybrid modeling approach for better identification of a building thermal network model and improved prediction

The gray-box modeling approach, which uses a semi-physical thermal network model, has been widely used in building prediction applications, such as model predictive control (MPC). However, unmeasured disturbances, such as occupants, lighting, and in/exfiltration loads, make it challenging to apply this approach to practical buildings. In this word, we propose a hybrid modeling approach that integrates the gray-box model with a model for unmeasured disturbance. After reviewing several system identification approaches, we systematically designed the unmeasured disturbance model with a model selection process based on statistical tests to make it robust. We generated data based on the building model calibrated by real operational data and then trained the hybrid model for two different weather conditions. The hybrid model approach demonstrates an RMSE reduction of approximately 0.2–0.9 °C and 0.3–2 °C on 1-day ahead temperature prediction compared to the Conventional approach for mild (Berkeley, CA) and cold (Chicago, IL) climates, respectively. In addition, this approach was applied to experimental data obtained from the laboratory building to be used for the MPC application, showing superior prediction performances.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Privacy-preserving federated learning: Application to behind-the-meter solar photovoltaic generation forecasting

Here, the growing usage of decentralized renewable energy sources has made accurate estimation of their aggregated generation crucial for maintaining grid flexibility and reliability. However, the majority of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems are behind-the-meter (BTM) and invisible to utilities, leading to three challenges in obtaining an accurate forecast of their aggregated output. Firstly, traditional centralized prediction algorithms used in previous studies may not be appropriate due to privacy concerns. There is therefore a need for decentralized forecasting methods, such as federated learning (FL), to protect privacy. Secondly, there has been no comparison between localized, centralized, and decentralized forecasting methods for BTM PV production, and the trade-off between prediction accuracy and privacy has not been explored. Lastly, the computational time of data-driven prediction algorithms has not been examined. This article presents a FL power forecasting method for PVs, which uses federated learning as a decentralized collaborative modeling approach to train a single model on data from multiple BTM sites. The machine learning network used to design this FL-based BTM PV forecasting model is a multi-layered perceptron, which ensures privacy and security of the data. Comparing the suggested FL forecasting model to non-private centralized and entirely private localized models revealed that it has a high level of accuracy, with an RMSE that is 18.17% lower than localized models and 9.9% higher than centralized models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grey-box and ANN-based building models for multistep-ahead prediction of indoor temperature to implement model predictive control

Model-based predictive control (MPC) strategies for heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems present an opportunity to lower building energy consumption and operational costs. Such approaches rely on the development of a model to precisely forecast building thermal dynamics, such as room air temperature or heating/cooling rate, and make control-related decisions. The control-oriented modeling of building energy systems should be accurate in predicting indoor conditions and present low computational complexity. These features are the key challenge of implementing advanced control methods such as MPC. Extant studies on building modeling for MPC have focused on step-ahead forecasting techniques to forecast building thermal dynamics, while multistep-ahead forecasting is essential. Moreover, machine learning model suitable in case of the domain-based engineering expertise are also not available. To this aim, we perform a comparative analysis of the grey-box model based on a resistance-capacitance (RC) thermal network and a machine learning model composed of an artificial neural network (ANN) for multistep-ahead prediction of building thermal dynamics using current and historical data. Actual experimental data obtained from the Flexible Research Platform (FRP) in Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US) are used for estimation and validation purposes. The average root mean squared error (RMSE) of the grey-box and ANN models are 0.89 °C and 1.02°C, respectively. Finally, the results indicate that the grey-box model outperforms the ANN model in the considered validation periods in terms of accuracy and prediction stability.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-informed machine learning to predict solvatochromic parameters of designer solvents with case studies in CO 2 and lignin dissolution

The polarity of solvents plays a critical role in various research applications, particularly in their solubilities. Polarity is conveniently characterized by the Kamlet-Taft parameters that is, the hydrogen bonding acidity (α), the basicity (β), and the polarizability (π*). Obtaining Kamlet-Taft parameters is very important for designer solvents, namely ionic liquids (ILs) and deep eutectic solvents (DESs). However, given the unlimited theoretical number of combinations of ionic pairs in ILs and hydrogen-bond donor/acceptor pairs in DESs, experimental determination of their Kamlet-Taft parameters is impractical. To address this, the present study developed two different machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict Kamlet-Taft parameters for designer solvents using quantum chemically derived input features. The ML models developed in the present study showed accurate predictions with high R 2 and low RMSE values. Further, in the context of present interest in the circular bioeconomy, the relationship between the basicities and acidities of designer solvents and their ability to dissolve lignin and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is discussed. Our method thus guides the design of effective solvents with optimal Kamlet-Taft parameter values dissolving and converting biomass and CO 2 into valuable chemicals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Isotherm modeling and techno-economic analysis of a TSA moving bed process using a tetraamine-appended MOF for NGCC applications

Tetraamine-appended metal-organic frameworks (MOF) are a new family of amine-functionalized MOF materials that show potential for CO 2 capture from flue gas conditions relevant to natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants. This work presents isotherm modeling of the tetraamine-appended MOF Mg 2 (dobpdc)(3-4-3)(dobpdc 4- =4,4'-dioxidobiphenyl-3,3'dicarboxylate;3-4-3=N,N'bis(3-aminopropyl)-1,4-diaminobutane), process modeling, scale up, and a techno-economic optimization of a moving bed Temperature Swing Adsorption (TSA) process for carbon capture using this sorbent. This MOF exhibits a unique two-step CO 2 adsorption profile in three different pressure ranges. Thus, arctangent-based logistic functions and, quadratic and Langmuir models were employed to represent such isotherm behavior. The results of the isotherm model show good fitting vs the experimental data with an RMSE of 0.41. Here, to model the carbon capture process, the isotherm model was embedded into a moving bed contactor model, and this was used to simulate a TSA CO 2 capture cycle and evaluate cost-optimal designs considering flue gas from a -650 MWe NGCC power plant. The capital cost model consists of CAPEX correlations for reactors, compressors, ducting, etc., while the operating costs include steam, water, chemicals, and electricity (following NETL's quality guidelines for energy systems studies). A techno-economic optimization of the capture system was performed by using NETL's Framework for the Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty and Surrogates tool (FOQUS). Results suggest that a moving bed carbon capture system with tetraamine-appended MOF can be competitive compared to conventional MEA solvent-based capture processes for NGCC plants, when a heat recovery efficiency of at least 40% is achieved, and MOF materials can be produced at a cost below -$9/kg.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tracking the environmental impacts of ecological engineering on coastal wetlands with numerical modeling and remote sensing

Coastal wetlands are the most valuable ecosystems on the earth but facing severe degradation and losses owing to climate change and anthropogenic activities. Many ecological engineering projects (EEP) have been conducted to mitigate the degradation of coastal wetlands. However, the geomorphological impacts of EEP on coastal wetlands have not been well documented. In this study, a method employed a process-based hydrodynamic model and remote sensing (RS) was developed to evaluate the impacts of EEP on the geomorphological change of a prototype Ramsar site. Results demonstrated that RS has great potential in improving the quality of bathymetry data for the numerical model with a decrease of RMSE from 0.52 m to 0.3 m. It also showed good capacity in trend detection of geomorphological change spatially. Results showed the Chongming Dongtan wetland experienced erosion with an annual rate of -0.035 m/yr from 2013 to 2016 after the implementation of EEP. The deposition rate changed significantly in the area within 200 m of the EEP. It is found that the EEP modified the composition of vegetation, sediment transportation, as well as substrate stability, affecting the geomorphological change of coastal wetlands. It is suggested that the EEP with moderate anthropogenic disturbance is a direct and effective way to recover the coastal habitats for waterbirds. However, the modification of the coastal wetland ecosystem by EEP will lead to the potential vulnerability to global climate change. Therefore, how to mitigate the advantages and disadvantages of the EEP is needed to be further studied to find a more sustainable way for coastal management.

geomorphological change, coastal wetlands, Ecologi↗
DOE OSTI2022

Third international challenge to model the medium- to long-range transport of radioxenon to four Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty monitoring stations

In 2015 and 2016, atmospheric transport modeling challenges were conducted in the context of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) verification, however, with a more limited scope with respect to emission inventories, simulation period and number of relevant samples (i.e., those above the Minimum Detectable Concentration (MDC)) involved. Therefore, a more comprehensive atmospheric transport modeling challenge was organized in 2019. Stack release data of Xe-133 were provided by the Institut National des Radioéléments/IRE (Belgium) and the Canadian Nuclear Laboratories/CNL (Canada) and accounted for in the simulations over a three (mandatory) or six (optional) months period. Best estimate emissions of additional facilities (radiopharmaceutical production and nuclear research facilities, commercial reactors or relevant research reactors) of the Northern Hemisphere were included as well. Model results were compared with observed atmospheric activity concentrations at four International Monitoring System (IMS) stations located in Europe and North America with overall considerable influence of IRE and/or CNL emissions for evaluation of the participants’ runs. Participants were prompted to work with controlled and harmonized model set-ups to make runs more comparable, but also to increase diversity. It was found that using the stack emissions of IRE and CNL with daily resolution does not lead to better results than disaggregating annual emissions of these two facilities taken from the literature if an overall score for all stations covering all valid observed samples is considered. A moderate benefit of roughly 10% is visible in statistical scores for samples influenced by IRE and/or CNL to at least 50% and there can be considerable benefit for individual samples. Effects of transport errors, not properly characterized remaining emitters and long IMS sampling times (12–24 h) undoubtedly are in contrast to and reduce the benefit of high-quality IRE and CNL stack data. Complementary best estimates for remaining emitters push the scores up by 18% compared to just considering IRE and CNL emissions alone. Despite the efforts undertaken the full multi-model ensemble built is highly redundant. An ensemble based on a few arbitrary runs is sufficient to model the Xe-133 background at the stations investigated. The effective ensemble size is below five. An optimized ensemble at each station has on average slightly higher skill compared to the full ensemble. However, the improvement (maximum of 20% and minimum of 3% in RMSE) in skill is likely being too small for being exploited for an independent period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A large-scale comparison of Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining (AI&DM) techniques in simulating reservoir releases over the Upper Colorado Region

In recent years, the Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining (AI&DM) models have become popular tools in assisting various aspects of reservoir operation. However, the practical uses are still rarely reported. Comparison experiment of many AI&DM models over a large number of reservoir cases is particularly valuable to help reservoir operators first examine the usefulness and transferability of different AI&DM models, and then identify the most stable and reliable AI&DM model in assist of various decision-making processes. In this study, a total of 12 AI&DM models with different parameterizations and simulation scenarios are comprehensively tested out and compared in simulating the controlled reservoir outflows of 33 reservoir cases over the Upper Colorado Region, United States. Results show that the Random Forecast and the Long-Short-Term-Memory model could consistently derive the best statistical performance than other models under the baseline simulation scenario. The employed AI&DM models could obtain satisfactory statistical interquartile ranges (25–75%) between [0.6–0.9], [0.3–0.8], and [0.2–0.8], for CORR, NSE, and KGE measurements, respectively, and [1.5–6.5], [–15 to 20], and [0.5–8.5] for the normalized RMSE, PBIAS and RSR measurements, respectively. Results also show Multi-Layer Perceptron model and Extreme Gradient Boosting Tree Algorithm produced more stable and superior performance than other models under more complex input scenarios. We also found that the performance of different AI&DM models are closely relevant to the reservoir elevations, sizes, and functionalities. Discussions were made about the sensitivity of AI&DM models’ parameterizations and the key advantages of AI&DM models over the rule-based reservoir models. We further identify that the main advantage of AI&DM models is the flexibility in designing input structures, whereas the rule-based simulation model is rather limited. Future studies were suggested regarding the best way reservoir operators and researchers could use, select, and apply different AI&DM models in simulating reservoir releases under different natural and modeling environments. Finally, this comparison study also serves as a reference and a piece of groundwork for further promoting the practical uses of AI&DM models in assisting reservoir operation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) evapotranspiration product Version 5.0: Algorithm development and preliminary validation

An accurate estimation of spatially and temporally continuous global terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) is essential in the assessment of surface energy, water and carbon cycles. The Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) ET product Version 4.0 (v4.0) based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method was generated to estimate global terrestrial ET. However, certain uncertainty for the GLASS ET product v4.0 limits its application. In this study, we introduced the deep neural networks (DNN) merging framework to improve terrestrial ET estimation for GLASS ET product Version 5.0 (v5.0) generation by integrating five satellite-derived ET products [Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ET product (MOD16), Shuttleworth–Wallace dual-source ET product (SW), Priestley–Taylor-based ET product (PT-JPL), modified satellite-based Priestley–Taylor ET product (MS-PT) and simple hybrid ET product (SIM)]. We compared the performance of DNN method against other merging methods, including GLASS ET algorithm v4.0 (BMA), the gradient boosting regression tree (GBRT) method and the random forest (RF) method, based on 195 global eddy covariance (EC) flux towers covering observations from 2000 through 2015. Validations indicated that the DNN had the highest accuracy among four merging methods across different land cover types, yielding the highest average determination coefficients (R 2 , 0.62), root-mean-squared-error (RMSE, 24.1 W/m 2 ) and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE, 0.77) with a of 99% confidence interval. Compared with GLASS ET algorithm v4.0, the DNN improved on the R 2 by approximately 7% (p < 0.01) and the KGE by 10%. Based on the DNN, we then generated 8-day GLASS ET product v5.0 globally with a 1 km spatial resolution from 2001 to 2015 driven by GLASS vegetation and surface net radiation (R n ) datasets and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA2) datasets. Finally, this global terrestrial ET product provides a valuable dataset for monitoring regional and global water resources and environmental changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing soil water content variability across spatial scales from optimized high-resolution distributed temperature sensing technique

Fiber-optic Distributed Temperature Sensing, when combined with the Single-probe Heat-pulse technique can measure soil moisture (θ) across spatial scales. The key limitation of this system is in obtaining the relationship between soil thermal conductivity (λ) and θ for a specific field. Using the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site, this study tested a new methodology to account for the spatial variability in the λ-θ relationship using a Gaussian processes model. The resulting accurate θ measurements (RMSE = 0.03 m 3 m –3 ) were used to characterize the spatial variability of θ across scales and to develop an empirical equation that can correct for the changes in the θ spatial variability observed at different spatial resolutions. In addition, the number of required samples to accurately characterize θ and its variability over scales ranging from 5 m and 350 m were estimated. Finally, these findings provide key information to scale soil moisture from centimeters to hundreds of meters for process understanding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A novel conditional generative model for efficient ensemble forecasts of state variables in large-scale geological carbon storage

Integrating monitoring data to efficiently update reservoir pressure and CO 2 plume distribution forecasts presents a significant challenge in geological carbon storage (GCS) applications. Inverse modeling techniques are commonly used to fuse observational data and refine reservoir model parameters, thereby improving state variable forecasts. However, these techniques often rely on linear or Gaussian assumptions, which can limit their effectiveness in accurately predicting state variables. Moreover, simulating large-scale three-dimensional (3D) GCS problems is computationally expensive, making iterative runs in inverse problems prohibitive. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional generative model utilizing the score-based diffusion method for real-time 3D pressure and saturation field distribution predictions. Our approach involves solving the score function with a mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to generate labeled data. This data is subsequently employed to train a fully connected neural network, enabling it to learn the conditional sample generator within a supervised learning framework. This method enables the rapid generation of a large ensemble of predictions, facilitating comprehensive uncertainty quantification of state variables. Here we applied our method to forecast the dynamic 3D distributions of pressure and saturation fields over a 30-year injection period. The statistical assessment with low root mean square error (RMSE) values demonstrates that our method can accurately predict the spatiotemporal distributions of both pressure and saturation fields. Moreover, the developed conditional generative model shows high computational efficiency by generating 100 ensemble forecasts of 3D state variables in less than 10 min. The consistency between ensemble averages and ground truth values further illustrates the model’s capability to capture state variable dynamics during the CO 2 plume injection process. Notably, the ground truth values fall within the ensemble forecasts, indicating that our uncertainty quantification effectively captures variability and potential noise in the observations. Thus, the developed conditional generative model proves to be a more efficient, accurate, and practical tool for GCS applications, facilitating timely risk analysis and informed decision-making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗