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At least 235 records · Page 13

SSM/I Rain Retrievals Within a Unified All-Weather Ocean Algorithm

A new method for the physical retrieval of rain rates from satellite microwave radiometers is presented and compared to two other rainfall climatologies derived from satellites. The method is part of a unified ocean parameter retrieval algorithm that is based on the fundamental principles of radiative transfer. The algorithm simultaneously finds near-surface wind speed W, columnar water vapor V, columnar cloud liquid water L, rain rate R, and effective radiating temperature T(sub U) for the upwelling radiation. The performance of the algorithm in the absence of rain is discussed in Wentz, and this paper focuses on the rain component of the algorithm. A particular strength of the unified algorithm is its ability to 'orthogonalize' the retrievals so that there is minimum cross-talk between the retrieved parameters. For example, comparisons of the retrieved water vapor with radiosonde observations show that there is very little correlation between the water vapor retrieval error and rain rate. For rain rates from 1 to 15 mm/h, the rms difference between the retrieved water vapor and the radiosonde value is 5 mm. A novel feature of the rain retrieval method is a beamfilling correction that is based upon the ratio of the retrieved liquid water absorption coefficients at 37 GHz and 19.35 GHz. This ratio decreases by about 40% when heavy and light rain co-exist within the SSM/I footprint as compared to the case of uniform rain. This correction has the effect of increasing the rain rate when the spectral ratio of the absorption coefficients is small. Even with this beamfilling correction, tropical rainfall is still unrealistically low when the freezing level in the tropics (approx. 5 km) is used to specify the rain layer thickness. We restore realism by reducing the assumed averaged tropical rain layer thickness to 3 km, thereby accounting for the existence of warm rain processes in which the rain layer does not extend to the freezing level. Global rain rates are produced for the 1991 through 1994 period from observations taken by microwave radiometers (SSM/I) that are aboard two polar-orbiting satellites. We find that approximately 6% of the SSM/I observations detect measurable rain rates (R greater than 0.2 mm/h). Zonal averages of the rain rates show the peak at the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is quite narrow in meridional extent and varies from about 7 mm/day in the winter to a maximum 11 mm/day in the summer. Very low precipitation rates (less than 0.3 mm/day) are observed in those areas of subsidence influenced by the large semipermanent anticyclones. In general, these features are similar to those reported in previously published rain climatologies. However, significant differences do exists between our rain rates and those produced by Spencer. These differences seem to be related to non-precipitating cloud water.

Wentz, Frank J.↗

Evaluation of Tropospheric Water Vapor Simulations from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project

Simulations of humidity from 28 general circulation models for the period 1979-88 from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project are compared with observations from radiosondes over North America and the globe and with satellite microwave observations over the Pacific basin. The simulations of decadal mean values of precipitable water (W) integrated over each of these regions tend to be less moist than the real atmosphere in all three cases; the median model values are approximately 5% less than the observed values. The spread among the simulations is larger over regions of high terrain, which suggests that differences in methods of resolving topographic features are important. The mean elevation of the North American continent is substantially higher in the models than is observed, which may contribute to the overall dry bias of the models over that area. The authors do not find a clear association between the mean topography of a model and its mean W simulation, however, which suggests that the bias over land is not purely a matter of orography. The seasonal cycle of W is reasonably well simulated by the models, although over North America they have a tendency to become moister more quickly in the spring than is observed. The interannual component of the variability of W is not well captured by the models over North America. Globally, the simulated W values show a signal correlated with the Southern Oscillation index but the observations do not. This discrepancy may be related to deficiencies in the radiosonde network, which does not sample the tropical ocean regions well. Overall, the interannual variability of W, as well as its climatology and mean seasonal cycle, are better described by the median of the 28 simulations than by individual members of the ensemble. Tests to learn whether simulated precipitable water, evaporation, and precipitation values may be related to aspects of model formulation yield few clear signals, although the authors find, for example, a tendency for the few models that predict boundary layer depth to have large values of evaporation and precipitation. Controlled experiments, in which aspects of model architecture are systematically varied within individual models, may be necessary to elucidate whether and how model characteristics influence simulations.

Gaffen, Dian J.↗

Comparison of U.K. Meteorological Office and U.S. National Meteorological Center Stratospheric Analyses During Northern and Southern Winter

Meteorological data from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), produced using a data assimilation system, and the U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC), produced using an objective analysis procedure, are compared for dynamically active periods during the Arctic and Antarctic winters of 1992. The differences seen during these periods are generally similar to those seen during other winter periods. Both UKMO and NMC analyses capture the large-scale evolution of the stratospheric circulation during northern hemisphere (NH) and southern hemisphere (SH) winters. Stronger vertical and horizontal temperature gradients develop in the UKMO than in the NMC data during stratospheric warmings; comparison with satellite measurements with better vertical resolution suggests that the stronger vertical temperature gradients are more realistic. The NH polar vortex is slightly stronger in the UKMO analyses than in the NMC in the middle and upper stratosphere, and midstratospheric temperatures are slightly lower. The SH polar vortex as represented in the UKMO analyses is stronger and colder in the midstratosphere than its representation in the NMC analyses. The UKMO analyses on occasion exhibit some difficulties in representing cross-polar flow or changes in curvature of the wind field at very high latitudes. In addition to the above study of two wintertime periods, a more detailed comparison of lower-stratospheric temperatures is done for all Arctic and Antarctic winter periods since the launch of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. In the NH lower stratosphere during winter, NMC temperatures are consistently lower than UKMO temperatures and closer to radiosonde temperatures than are UKMO temperatures. Conversely, in the SH lower stratosphere during winter, UKMO temperatures are typically lower than NMC and are closer to radiosonde temperature observations.

Manney, G. L.↗

MM-Wave Radiometric Measurements of Low Amounts of Precipitable Water Vapor

An experiment was conducted during March, 1999 to study ways in which to improve techniques for measuring low amounts of total-column precipitable water vapor (PWV). The experiment was conducted at the DOE's ARM program's North Slope of Alaska/Adjacent Arctic Ocean Cloud and Radiation Testbed site (DoE ARM NSA/AAO CaRT) located just outside Barrow, Alaska. NASA and NOAA deployed a suite of radiometers covering 25 channels in the frequency range of 20 GHz up to 340 GHz including 8 channels around the 183 GHz water vapor absorption line. In addition to the usual CaRT site instrumentation the NOAA Depolarization and Backscatter Unattended Lidar (DABUL), the SUNY Rotating Shadowband Spectroradiometer (RSS) and other surface based meteorological instrumentation were deployed during the intensive observation period. Vaisala RS80 radiosondes were launched daily as well as nearby National Weather Service VIZ sondes. Atmospheric conditions ranged from clear calm skies to blowing snow and heavy multi-layer cloud coverage. Measurements made by the radiosondes indicate the PWV varied from approx. 1 to approx. 5 mm during the experiment. The near-surface temperature varied between about -40 C to - 15 C. In this presentation, an overview of the experiment with examples of data collected will be presented. Application of the data for assessing the potential and limitations of millimeter-wave radiometry for retrieving very low amounts of PWV will be discussed.

Racette, P.↗

A New Raman Water Vapor Lidar Calibration Technique and Measurements in the Vicinity of Hurricane Bonnie

The NAcA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scanning Raman Lidar has made measurements of water vapor and aerosols for almost ten years. Calibration of the water vapor data has typically been performed by comparison with another water vapor sensor such as radiosondes. We present a new method for water vapor calibration that only requires low clouds, and surface pressure and temperature measurements. A sensitivity study was performed and the cloud base algorithm agrees with the radiosonde calibration to within 10- 15%. Knowledge of the true atmospheric lapse rate is required to obtain more accurate cloud base temperatures. Analysis of water vapor and aerosol measurements made in the vicinity of Hurricane Bonnie are discussed.

Evans, Keith D.↗

Shipboard Sunphotometer Measurements of Aerosol Optical Depth Spectra and Columnar Water Vapor During ACE-2 and Comparison with Selected Land, Ship, Aircraft, and Satellite Measurements

Analyses of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and colurnmn water vapor (CWV) measurements acquired with NASA Ames Research Center's 6-channel Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (AATS-6) operated aboard the R/V Professor Vodyanitskiy during the 2nd Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-2) are discussed. Data are compared with various in situ and remote measurements for selected cases. The focus is on 10 July, when the Pelican airplane flew within 70 km of the ship near the time of a NOAA-14/AVHRR satellite overpass and AOD measurements with the 14-channel Ames Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (AATS-14) above the marine boundary layer (MBL) permitted calculation of AOD within the MBL from the AATS-6 measurements. A detailed column closure test is performed for MBL AOD on 10 July by comparing the AATS-6 MBL AODs with corresponding values calculated by combining shipboard particle size distribution measurements with models of hygroscopic growth and radiosonde humidity profiles (plus assumptions on the vertical profile of the dry particle size distribution and composition). Large differences (30-80% in the mid-visible) between measured and reconstructed AODs are obtained, in large part because of the high sensitivity of the closure methodology to hygroscopic growth models, which vary considerably and have not been validated over the necessary range of particle size/composition distributions. The wavelength dependence of AATS-6 AODs is compared with the corresponding dependence of aerosol extinction calculated from shipboard measurements of aerosol size distribution and of total scattering mearured by a shipboard integrating nephelometer for several days. Results are highly variable, illustrating further the great difficulty of deriving column values from point measurements. AATS-6 CWV values are shown to agree well with corresponding values derived from radiosonde measurements during 8 soundings on 7 days and also with values calculated from measurements taken on 10 July with the AATS-14 and the University of Washington Passive Humidigraph aboard the Pelican.

Livingston, John M.↗

Continuous Water Vapor Profiles from Operational Ground-Based Active and Passive Remote Sensors

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plains Cloud and Radiation Testbed site central facility near Lamont, Oklahoma, offers unique operational water vapor profiling capabilities, including active and passive remote sensors as well as traditional in situ radiosonde measurements. Remote sensing technologies include an automated Raman lidar and an automated Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI), which are able to retrieve water vapor profiles operationally through the lower troposphere throughout the diurnal cycle. Comparisons of these two water vapor remote sensing methods to each other and to radiosondes over an 8-month period are presented and discussed, highlighting the accuracy and limitations of each method. Additionally, the AERI is able to retrieve profiles of temperature while the Raman lidar is able to retrieve aerosol extinction profiles operationally. These data, coupled with hourly wind profiles from a 915-MHz wind profiler, provide complete specification of the state of the atmosphere in noncloudy skies. Several case studies illustrate the utility of these high temporal resolution measurements in the characterization of mesoscale features within a 3-day time period in which passage of a dryline, warm air advection, and cold front occurred.

Turner, D. D.↗

A New Raman Water Vapor Lidar Calibration Technique and Measurements in the Vicinity of Hurricane Bonnie

The NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scanning Raman Lidar has made measurements of water vapor and aerosols for almost ten years. Calibration of the water vapor data has typically been performed by comparison with another water vapor sensor such as radiosondes. We present a new method for water vapor calibration that only requires low clouds, and surface pressure and temperature measurements. A sensitivity study was performed and the cloud base algorithm agrees with the radiosonde calibration to within 10-15%. Knowledge of the true atmospheric lapse rate is required to obtain more accurate cloud base temperatures. Analysis of water vapor and aerosol measurements made in the vicinity of Hurricane Bonnie are discussed.

Evans, Keith D.↗

Improved Humidity Sensing with the Chilled Mirror: Really?

Testing of the chilled mirror sensor was initiated at Wallops Island in 1997. The chilled mirror dew point system is integrated with the Sippican, Inc., MK2 radiosonde providing a relatively inexpensive instrument. Early tests suggested that better stratospheric humidity measurements might be available. But, recent tests with different configurations of the mirror's cooler indicated that the systems capability to cool to the very low dew point temperatures required in the stratosphere were not being met with the present system. Nonetheless, the present mirror technology, while still undergoing development gives better humidity information between 400 and 100 hPa than the current routine radiosonde sensor. Comparisons are given of the chilled mirror and the typical operational humidity sensors.

Schmidlin, Francis J.↗

AIRS-Light Instrument Concept and Critical Technology Development

Understanding Earth's climate, atmospheric transport mechanisms, and the hydrologic cycle requires a precise knowledge of global atmospheric circulation, temperature profiles, and water vapor distribution. The accuracy of advanced sounders such as AIRS/AMSU/HSB on NASA's Aqua spacecraft can match radiosonde accuracy. It is essential to fold those capabilities fully into the NPOESS, enabling soundings of radiosonde accuracy, every 6 hours around the globe on an operational basis. However, the size, mass, power demands, and thermal characteristics of the Aqua sounding instrument suite cannot be accommodated on the NPOESS spacecraft. AIRS-Light is an instrument concept, developed under the Instrument Incubator Program, which provides IR sounding performance identical to the AIRS instrument, but uses advances in HgCdTe FPA technology and pulse tube cooler technology, as well as design changes to dramatically reduce the size, mass, and power demand, allowing AIRS-Light to meet all NPOESS spacecraft interface requirements. The instrument concept includes substantial re-use of AIRS component designs, including the complex AIRS FPA, to reduce development risk and cost. The AIRS-Light Instrument Incubator program fostered the development of photovoltaic-mode HgCdTe detector array technology for the 13.5-15.4 micron band covered by photoconductive-mode HgCdTe arrays in AIRS, achieved state of the art results in this band, and substantially reduced the development risk for this last new technology needed for AIRS-Light implementation, A demonstration of a prototype 14.5-15.4 micron band IRFPA in a reduced heat-load dewar together with the IMAS pulse tube cryocooler is in progress.

Maschhoff, Kevin↗

Shipboard Sunphotometer Measurements of Aerosol Optical Depth Spectra and Columnar Water Vapor During ACE-2, and Comparison with Selected Land, Ship, Aircraft, and Satellite Measurements

Analyses of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and columnar water vapor (CWV) measurements acquired with NASA Ames Research Center's six-channel Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (AATS-6) operated aboard the R/V (research vehicle) Professor Vodyanitskiy during the second Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-2) are discussed. Data are compared with various in situ and remote measurements for selected cases. The focus is on 10 July, when the Pelican airplane flew within 70 km of the ship near the time of a NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration)-14/AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) satellite overpass and AOD measurements with the 14-channel Ames Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (AATS-14) above the marine boundary layer (MBL) permitted calculation of AOD within the MBL from the AATS-6 measurements. A detailed column closure test is performed for MBL AOD on 10 July by comparing the AATS-6 MBL AODs with corresponding values calculated by combining shipboard particle size distribution measurements with models of hygroscopic growth and radiosonde humidity profiles (plus assumptions on the vertical profile of the dry particle size distribution and composition). Large differences (30-80% in the mid-visible) between measured and reconstructed AODs are obtained, in large part because of the high sensitivity of the closure methodology to hygroscopic growth models, which vary considerably and have not been validated over the necessary range of particle size/composition distributions. The wavelength dependence of AATS-6 AODs is compared with the corresponding dependence of aerosol extinction calculated from shipboard measurements of aerosol size distribution and of total scattering measured by a shipboard integrating nephelometer for several days. Results are highly variable, illustrating further the great difficulty of deriving column values from point measurements. AATS-6 CWV values are shown to agree well with corresponding values derived from radiosonde measurements during eight soundings on seven days and also with values calculated from measurements taken on 10 July with the AATS-14 and the University of Washington Passive Humidigraph aboard the Pelican.

Livingston, John M.↗

NASA/GSFC Scanning Raman Lidar Measurements of Water Vapor and Cirrus Clouds during WVIOP2000 and AFWEX

The NASA/GSFC Scanning Raman Lidar (SRL) was deployed to the Southern Great Plains CART site from September - December, 2000 and participated in two field campaigns devoted to comparisons of various water vapor measurement technologies and calibrations. These campaigns were the Water Vapor Intensive Operations Period 2000 (WVIOP2000) and the ARM FIRE Water Vapor Experiment (AFWEX). WVIOP2000 was devoted to validating water vapor measurements in the lower atmosphere while AFWEX had similar goals but for measurements in the upper troposphere. The SRL was significantly upgraded both optically and electronically prior to these field campaigns. These upgrades enabled the SRL to demonstrate the highest resolution lidar measurements of water vapor ever acquired during the nighttime and the highest S/N Raman lidar measurements of water vapor in the daytime; more than a factor of 2 increase in S/N versus the DOE CARL Raman Lidar. Examples of these new measurement capabilities along with comparisons of SRL and CARL, LASE, MPI-DIAL, in-situ sensors, radiosonde, and others will be presented. The profile comparisons of the SRL and CARL have revealed what appears to be an overlap correction or countrate correction problem in CARL. This may be involved in an overall dry bias in the precipitable water calibration of CARL with respect to the MWR of approx. 4%. Preliminary analysis indicates that the application of a temperature dependent correction to the narrowband Raman lidar measurements of water vapor improves the lidar/Vaisala radiosonde comparisons of upper tropospheric water vapor. Other results including the comparison of the first-ever simultaneous measurements from four water vapor lidar systems, a bore-wave event captured at high resolution by the SRL and cirrus cloud optical depth studies using the SRL and CARL will be presented at the meeting.

Whiteman, D. N.↗

Characterization of Upper Troposphere Water Vapor Measurements during AFWEX using LASE

Water vapor profiles from NASA's Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE) system acquired during the ARM/FIRE Water Vapor Experiment (AFWEX) are used to characterize upper troposphere water vapor (UTWV) measured by ground-based Raman lidars, radiosondes, and in situ aircraft sensors. Initial comparisons showed the average Vaisala radiosonde measurements to be 5-15% drier than the average LASE, Raman lidar, and DC-8 in situ diode laser hygrometer measurements. We show that corrections to the Raman lidar and Vaisala measurements significantly reduce these differences. Precipitable water vapor (PWV) derived from the LASE water vapor profiles agrees within 3% on average with PWV derived from the ARM ground-based microwave radiometer (MWR). The agreement among the LASE, Raman lidar, and MWR measurements demonstrates how the LASE measurements can be used to characterize both profile and column water vapor measurements and that ARM Raman lidar, when calibrated using the MWR PWV, can provide accurate UTWV measurements.

Ferrare, R. A.↗

Middle Atmosphere Temperature Trends from Small Rocketsondes

Stratospheric temperature trends derived from United States meteorological rocketsonde measurements obtained between the late 1960's and mid 1990's are examined at the 50-, 40-, and 25-km altitude levels. Although the trends are different at each of the launch locations there is an unequivocal downward slope of about -0.1 K to -0.3K per year at many of the launch sites. Distances between launch sites and, in some cases unequal data-record lengths, inhibit determination of trend inter-relationship among the various sites. Although the data only provide a 'snapshot' of atmospheric behavior for the specific location, a particular advantage resulting from using these particular rocketsonde observations is their consistency over time. Thus, using the same rocketsonde type over the data period, i.e., Datasonde insures a significant reduction of instrument induced anomalies in the temperature profiles. Trends at the 25-km altitude level, approximately 30 hPa, are compared with trends from radiosonde observations. Both rocketsonde and radiosonde measurements were obtained at approximately the same local times and within less than 100 km of each other. Rocketsonde temperatures from the Former Soviet Union are also used and often complement trends from US data.

Schmidlin, F. J.↗

Measurement of Low Amounts of Precipitable Water Vapor Using Ground-Based Millimeterwave Radiometry

Extremely dry conditions characterized by amounts of precipitable water vapor (PWV) as as 1-2 mm commonly occur in high-latitude regions during the winter months. While such atmospheres carry only a few percent of the latent heat energy compared to tropical atmospheres, the effects of low vapor amounts on the polar radiation budget - both directly through modulation of longwave radiation and indirectly through the formation of clouds - are considerable. Accurate measurements of precipitable water vapor (PWV) during such dry conditions are needed to improve polar radiation models for use in understanding and predicting change in the climatically sensitive polar regions. To this end, the strong water vapor absorption at 183.310 GHz provides a unique means of measuring low amounts of PWV. Weighting function analysis, forward model calculations based upon a 7-year radiosonde dataset, and retrieval simulations consistently predict that radiometric measurements made using several millimeter-wavelength (MMW) channels near the 183 GHz line, together with established microwave (MW) measurements at the 22.235 GHz water vapor line and -3 1 GHz atmospheric absorption window can be used to determine within 5% uncertainty the full range of PWV expected in the Arctic. This unique collective capability stands in spite of accuracy limitations stemming from uncertainties due to the sensitivity of the vertical distribution of temperature and water vapor at MMW channels. In this study the potential of MMW radiometry using the 183 GHz line for measuring low amounts of PWV is demonstrated both theoretically and experimentally. The study uses data obtained during March 1999 as part of an experiment conducted at the Department of Energy s Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) near Barrow, Alaska. Several radiometers from both NOAA and NASA were deployed during the experiment to provide the first combined MMW and MW ground-based data set during dry arctic conditions. Single-channel retrievals of PWV were performed using the MW and MMW data. Discrepancies in the retrieved values were found to be consistent with differences observed between measured brightness temperatures (TBs) and forward-modeled TBs based on concurrent radiosonde profiles. These discrepancies are greater than can be explained by measurement error alone and are attributed to absorption model uncertainty. We discuss here the measurements, retrieval technique, and line model discrepancies along with difficulties and potential of MMW/MW PWV measurement.

Racette, Paul E.↗

Regional Assimilation of NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Data

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center seeks to accelerate the infusion of NASA Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NW S forecast operations and decision-making. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), is expected to advance climate research and weather prediction into the 21 st century. It is one of six instruments onboard Aqua, a satellite that is part of NASA s Earth Observing System. AIRS, along with two partner microwave sounding instruments, represents the most advanced atmospheric sounding system ever deployed in space. The system is capable of measuring the atmospheric temperature in the troposphere with radiosonde accuracies of 1 K over 1 km-thick layers under both clear and cloudy conditions, while the accuracy of the derived moisture profiles will exceed that obtained by radiosondes. It is imperative that the scientific community is prepared to take full advantage of next-generation satellite data that will become available within the next decade. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure designed to optimally assimilate AIRS data at high spatial resolution over both land and ocean. The assimilation system used in this study is the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) developed at the Forecast System Laboratory used extensively around the globe. Results will focus on quality control issues associated with AIRS, optimal assimilation strategies, and the impact of the AIRS data on subsequent numerical forecasts at 12 km produced by the next generation Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model.

Chou, Shih-Hung↗

DC-8 MTP calibration for SOLVE-2

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Microwave Temperature Profiler (MTP) was the only instrument making temperature measurements at and below flight level on the DC-8 during the SOLVE-2 campaign. Many years of careful comparison of MTP measurements with radiosondes near the DC-8 flight track have shown that the flight level temperature can be determined to an accuracy of 0.2K relative to radiosondes.

SOLVE-2↗

Stable Low Cloud Phase II: Nocturnal Event Study

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in developing a database of nights that experienced rapid (< 90 minutes) low cloud formation in a stable atmosphere, resulting in ceilings at the Shuttle Landing Facility (TTS) that violated Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR). This work is the second phase of a similar AMU task that examined the same phenomena during the day. In the first phase of this work, the meteorological conditions favoring the rapid formation of low ceilings include the presence of any inversion below 8000 ft, high relative humidity (RH) beneath the inversion and a clockwise turning of the winds from the surface to the middle troposphere (-15000 ft). The AMU compared and contrasted the atmospheric and thermodynamic conditions between nights with rapid low ceiling formation and nights with low ceilings resulting from other mechanisms. The AMU found that there was little to discern between the rapidly-forming ceiling nights and other low ceiling nights at TTS. When a rapid development occurred, the average RH below the inversions was 87% while non-events had an average RH of 79%. One key parameter appeared to be the vertical wind profile in the Cape Canaveral, FL radiosonde (XMR) sounding. Eighty-three percent of the rapid development events had veering winds with height from the surface to the middle troposphere (-15,000 ft) while 61% of the non-events had veering winds with height. Veering winds indicate a warm-advection regime, which supports large-scale rising motion and ultimately cloud formation in a moist environment. However, only six of the nights (out of 86 events examined) with low cloud ceilings had an occurrence of rapidly developing ceilings. Since only 7% rapid development events were observed in this dataset, it is likely that rapid low cloud development is not a common occurrence during the night, or at least not as common as during the day. In the AMU work on the daytime rapid low cloud development (Case and Wheeler 2005), nearly 30% of the low cloud ceiling cases investigated were identified as rapidly developing events. Forecasters at the Space Meteorology Group (SMG) issue 30 to 90 minute forecasts for low cloud ceilings at TTS to support Space Shuttle landings. Mission verification statistics have shown ceilings to be the number one forecast challenge. More specifically, forecasters at SMG are concerned with any rapidly developing clouds/ceilings below 8000 R in a stable, capped thermodynamic environment. Therefore, the AMU was tasked to examine archived events of rapid stable cloud formation resulting in ceilings below 8000 ft, and document the atmospheric regimes favoring this type of cloud development. The AMU examined the cool season months of November to March during the years of 1994-2005 for nights that had low-level inversions and rapid, stable low cloud formation that resulted in ceilings violating the Space Shuttle FR. The AMU wrote and modified existing code to identify inversions from the evening and morning XMR radiosonde during the cool season and output pertinent sounding information. They parsed all days with cloud ceilings below 8000 ft at TTS, forming a database of possible rapidly-developing low ceiling events. Nights with precipitation or noticeable fog burn-off situations were excluded from the database. Only the nighttime hours were examined for possible ceiling development events since the daytime events were examined in the first phase of this work. The report presents one sample case of rapidly-developing low cloud ceilings. The case depicts the representative meteorological and thermodynamic characteristics of such events. The case also illustrates how quickly the cloud decks can develop, sometimes forming in 30 minutes or less. The report also summarizes the composite meteorological conditions for 6 event nights with rapid low cloud ceiling formation and 80 non-events nights consisting of advection or widespread low cloud ceilings. The teorological conditions were quite similar for both the event and non-event nights, since both types of nights experienced low cloud ceilings. Both types of nights had a relatively moist environment beneath an inversion based below 8000 ft.

Bauman, William H., III↗