SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Random Uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1985

Automated Extraction of Absorption Bands from Reflectance Special

A multiple high order derivative spectroscopy technique has been developed for deriving wavelength positions, half widths, and heights of absorption bands in reflectance spectra. The technique is applicable to laboratory spectra as well as medium resolution (100-200/cm) telescope or spacecraft spectra with moderate (few percent) noise. The technique permits absorption band positions to be detected with an accuracy of better than 3%, and often better than 1%. The high complexity of radiative transfer processes in diffusely reflected spectra can complicate the determination of absorption band positions. Continuum reflections, random illumination geometries within the material, phase angle effects, composite overlapping bands, and calibration uncertainties can shift apparent band positions by 20% from their actual positions or mask them beyond detection. Using multiple high order derivative analysis, effects of scattering continua, phase angle, and calibration (smooth features) are suppressed. Inflection points that characterize the positions and half widths of constituent bands are enhanced by the process and directly detected with relatively high sensitivity.

Huguenin, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Acquisition and processing of data for isotope-ratio-monitoring mass spectrometry

Methods are described for continuous monitoring of signals required for precise analyses of 13C, 18O, and 15N in gas streams containing varying quantities of CO2 and N2. The quantitative resolution (i.e. maximum performance in the absence of random errors) of these methods is adequate for determination of isotope ratios with an uncertainty of one part in 10(5); the precision actually obtained is often better than one part in 10(4). This report describes data-processing operations including definition of beginning and ending points of chromatographic peaks and quantitation of background levels, allowance for effects of chromatographic separation of isotopically substituted species, integration of signals related to specific masses, correction for effects of mass discrimination, recognition of drifts in mass spectrometer performance, and calculation of isotopic delta values. Characteristics of a system allowing off-line revision of parameters used in data reduction are described and an algorithm for identification of background levels in complex chromatograms is outlined. Effects of imperfect chromatographic resolution are demonstrated and discussed and an approach to deconvolution of signals from coeluting substances described.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

NASA NTRS2018

Tonal Noise Prediction of a Distributed Propulsion Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

Noise is expected to be a major barrier of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to public acceptance. A noise prediction scheme is introduced in this paper and applied to a specific vehicle configuration, namely, the Greased Lightning-10. Results herein will be used to demonstrate the feasibility of incorporating a noise constraint within the flight control system of a distributed electric propulsion vehicle by modifying commands for low-noise operation over sensitive areas, e.g., communities, schools, etc. Steady loading and thickness noise signatures of single propellers are computed using the Propeller Analysis System of the NASA Aircraft NOise Prediction Program. The individual signatures are then superposed at far field observers after applying corrections for spherical spreading and phase delays based on straight ray propagation. Two-propeller source fields are verified using analytical directivity patterns of monopoles. Notional effects of rotation rate, rotation direction, and relative propeller phase are given. Under ideal circumstances and equivalent RPM, random phasing, which occurs in most small UAVs, can produce up to 20 decibels uncertainty in the tonal sound pressure level at a given ground observer. Additionally, directivity modification via relative propeller phase control is shown to have great potential as a noise reduction technique. This paper will focus on the forward flight mode but will also briefly discuss the vertical flight mode.

Pascioni, Kyle A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Probabilistic analysis of bladed turbine disks and the effect of mistuning

Probabilistic assessment of the maximum blade response on a mistuned rotor disk is performed using the computer code NESSUS. The uncertainties in natural frequency, excitation frequency, amplitude of excitation and damping have been included to obtain the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of blade responses. Advanced mean value first order analysis is used to compute CDF. The sensitivities of different random variables are identified. Effect of the number of blades on a rotor on mistuning is evaluated. It is shown that the uncertainties associated with the forcing function parameters have significant effect on the response distribution of the bladed rotor.

Shah, Ashwin↗

NASA NTRS2018

Comparisons of Two Spatial Implementations of a Crop Model Using Remotely Sensed Observations over Southeastern United States

Global food security is one of the most pressing issues of the current century, particularly for developing nations. Agricultural simulation models can be a key component in testing new technologies, seeds and cultivars etc. However, inaccurate input information, model related errors and the mode of implementation can also add to model uncertainties. In this study, the crop model is implemented in two separate fashions: a)gridded (GriDSSAT model) and b) using random spatial ensembles (RHEAS model). This is done in the Southeastern US to evaluate and understand the modelperformance over a region data availabilities. Once the model performance is assessed, multiple satellite based earth observation parameters such as soil moisture, vegetation index etc. can be assimilated into crop models to reduce input and model related uncertainties particularly in data limited regions. In this study, the National Agricultural Statistical Services (NASS) reported yield data at county levels are used for comparison andvalidation purposes. The GriDSSAT model estimation of corn yields in comparison with the reported NASS yields showed an overall RMSD of nearly 3720 (kg/ha) whereas RMSD for the RHEAS model implementation was 3550 (kg/ha). Overall the GriDSSAT model had negative bias of nearly 2400 kg/ha (except for 2013) while RHEAS had a slight positive bias of 400 kg/ha (approx.).

SERVIR↗

NASA NTRS2019

Simultaneous Localization and Mapping for Satellite Rendezvous and Proximity Operations Using Random Finite Sets

Future space missions require that spacecraft have the capability to autonomously navigate non-cooperative environments for rendezvous and proximity operations (RPO). Current relative navigation filters can have difficulty in these situations, diverging due to complications with data association, high measurement uncertainty, and clutter, particularly when detailed a priori maps of the target object or spacecraft do not exist. The goal of this work is to demonstrate the feasibility of random finite set (RFS) filters for spacecraft relative navigation and pose estimation. The approach is to formulate satellite relative navigation and pose estimation as a simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) problem, in which an observer spacecraft seeks to simultaneously estimate the location of features on a target object or spacecraft as well as its relative position, velocity and attitude. This work utilizes a filter developed using the framework of RFS which are well suited to multi-target SLAM operations, avoiding data association entirely. Relevant RPO scenarios with simulated flash LIDAR measurements are tested with a Probability Hypothesis Density (PHD) RFS filter embedded in a particle filter to obtain a feature map of a target and a relative pose estimate between the target and observer. Preliminary results show that an RFS-based filter can successfully perform SLAM in a spacecraft relative navigation scenario with no a priori map of the target. These results demonstrate the feasibility of RFS filtering for spacecraft relative navigation and motivate future studies which may expand to tracking space objects for space situational awareness, as well as relative navigation around small bodies.

Schlenker, Lauren↗

NASA NTRS2019

Simultaneous Localization and Mapping for Satellite Rendezvous and Proximity Operations using Random Finite Sets

Schlenker, Lauren↗

NASA NTRS1994

Calibration of the COBE FIRAS instrument

The Far-Infrared Absolute Spectrophotometer (FIRAS) instrument on the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) satellite was designed to accurately measure the spectrum of the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR) in the frequency range 1-95/cm with an angular resolution of 7 deg. We describe the calibration of this instrument, including the method of obtaining calibration data, reduction of data, the instrument model, fitting the model to the calibration data, and application of the resulting model solution to sky observations. The instrument model fits well for calibration data that resemble sky condition. The method of propagating detector noise through the calibration process to yield a covariance matrix of the calibrated sky data is described. The final uncertainties are variable both in frequency and position, but for a typical calibrated sky 2.6 deg square pixel and 0.7/cm spectral element the random detector noise limit is of order of a few times 10(exp -7) ergs/sq cm/s/sr cm for 2-20/cm, and the difference between the sky and the best-fit cosmic blackbody can be measured with a gain uncertainty of less than 3%.

Fixsen, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

High Spatial Resolution Studies of Epithermal Neutron Emission from the Lunar Poles: Constraints on Hydrogen Mobility

The data from the collimated sensors of the LEND instrument are shown to be of exceptionally high quality. Counting uncertainties are about 0.3% relative and are shown to be the only significant source of random error, thus conclusions based on small differences in count rates are valid. By comparison with the topography of Shoemaker crater, the spatial resolution of the instrument is shown to be consistent with the design value of 5 km for the radius of the circle over which half the counts from the lunar surface would be determined. The observed epithermal-neutron suppression factor due to the hydrogen deposit in Shoemaker crater of 0.25 plus or minus 0.04 cps is consistent with the collimated field-of-view rate of 1.7 cps estimated by Mitrofanov et al. (2010a). The statistical significance of the neutron suppressed regions (NSRs) relative to the larger surrounding polar region is demonstrated, and it is shown that they are not closely related to the permanently shadowed regions. There is a significant increase in H content in the polar regions independent of the H content of the NSRs. The non-NSR H content increases directly with latitude, and the rate of increase is virtually identical at both poles. There is little or no increase with latitude outside the polar region. Various mechanisms to explain this steep increase in the non-NSR polar H with latitude are investigated, and it is suggested that thermal volatilization is responsible for the increase because it is minimized at the low surface temperatures close to the poles.

neutron↗

NASA NTRS2023

A Hyperspectral Inversion Framework for Estimating Absorbing Inherent Optical Properties and Biogeochemical Parameters in Inland and Coastal Waters

The simultaneous remote estimation of biogeochemical parameters (BPs) and inherent optical properties (IOPs) from hyperspectral satellite imagery of globally distributed optically distinct inland and coastal waters is a complex, unsolved, non-unique inverse problem. To tackle this problem, we leverage a machine-learning model termed Mixture Density Networks (MDNs). MDNs outperform operational algorithms by calculating the covariance between the simultaneously estimated products. We train the MDNs on a large ( N = 8237) dataset of co-aligned, in situ measured, hyperspectral remote sensing reflectance (R rs ), BPs, and absorbing IOPs from globally representative optically distinct inland and coastal waters. The estimated IOPs include absorption due to phytoplankton (a ph ), chromophoric dissolved organic matter (a cdom ), and non-algal particles (a nap ). The estimated BPs include chlorophyll-a, total suspended solids, and phycocyanin (PC). MDNs dramatically reduce uncertainty in the retrievals, relative to operational algorithms, when using a 50/50 dataset split, where the MDNs are trained on a randomly selected half of the in situ dataset and validated on the other half. Our model is shown to have higher, or equivalent, generalization performance than the calculated operational algorithms available for all BPs and IOPs (except PC) via a leave-one-out cross-validation assessment. The MDNs are sensitive to uncertainties in the hyperspectral satellite R rs , resulting from instrument noise and atmospheric correction; there is a difference of ~37.4–62.8% (using median symmetric accuracy) between the MDNs’ estimates derived from co-located satellite-derived R rs and in situ R rs . Of the IOPs, a cdom and a nap are less sensitive to uncertainties in hyperspectral satellite imagery relative to a ph , with remote estimates of a ph exhibiting incorrect spectral shape and magnitude relative to in situ measured IOPs. Despite the uncertainties in satellite derived R rs , the spatial distributions of BPs and IOPs in MDN-derived product maps of Lake Erie and the Curonian Lagoon, based on imagery taken with the Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO) and PRecursore Iper-Spettrale della Missione Applicativa (PRISMA), are confirmed via co-aligned in situ measurements and agree with the literature’s understanding of these well-studied regions. The consistency and accuracy of the model on HICO and PRISMA imagery, despite radiometric uncertainties, demonstrate its applicability to future hyperspectral missions, such as the Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission, where the simultaneous estimation model will serve as a key part of phytoplankton community composition analysis.

Ryan E. O'Shea↗

NASA NTRS1994

Hydrogen masers and cesium fountains at NRC

The NRC masers H-3 and H-4 have been operating since June 1993 with cavity servo control. These low-flux active H masers are showing stabilities of about 10(exp -15) from 1 hour to several days. Stability results are presented, and the current and planned uses of the masers are discussed. A cesium fountain primary frequency standard project has been started at NRC. Trapping and launching experiments with the goal of 7 m/s launches are beginning. We discuss our plans for a local oscillator and servo that exploit the pulsed aspect of cesium fountain standards, and meet the challenge of 10(exp -14) tau(exp -1/2) stability without requiring masers. At best, we expect to run this frequency standard initially for periods of hours each working day rather than continuously for years, and so frequency transfer to outside laboratories has been carefully considered. We conclude that masers (or other even better secondary clocks) are required to exploit this potential accuracy of the cesium fountain. We present and discuss our conclusion that it is feasible to transfer frequency in this way with a transfer-induced uncertainty of less than 10(exp -15), even in the presence of maser frequency drift and random walk noise.

Boulanger, J.-S.↗

NASA NTRS1983

A design methodology for nonlinear systems containing parameter uncertainty

In the present design methodology for nonlinear systems containing parameter uncertainty, a generalized sensitivity analysis is incorporated which employs parameter space sampling and statistical inference. For the case of a system with j adjustable and k nonadjustable parameters, this methodology (which includes an adaptive random search strategy) is used to determine the combination of j adjustable parameter values which maximize the probability of those performance indices which simultaneously satisfy design criteria in spite of the uncertainty due to k nonadjustable parameters.

Young, G. E.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Parameter uncertainties in control system design.

Development of a design method for including the effects of parameter uncertainties in the design of linear control systems. The approach taken to this problem may be classified as a special case of the stochastic control problem. Thus the formulation is based on the minimization of the expected value of a quadratic performance index defined in terms of the system state vector. The uncertainty in the value of the performance index is the result of the statistical nature of the system parameters rather than a random input signal. It is shown that the expected value of the performance index may be written as a sum of two terms under the assumption of first-order variations of the system state. The first of these terms expresses the nominal performance of the system when the system parameters assume their mean values. The second term represents the effect of the uncertainties on the expected value of the performance index, and is interpreted as an index of system sensitivity.

Palsson, T.↗

NASA NTRS1971

Reward and uncertainty in exploration programs

A set of variables which are crucial to the economic outcome of petroleum exploration are discussed. These are treated as random variables; the values they assume indicate the number of successes that occur in a drilling program and determine, for a particular discovery, the unit production cost and net economic return if that reservoir is developed. In specifying the joint probability law for those variables, extreme and probably unrealistic assumptions are made. In particular, the different random variables are assumed to be independently distributed. Using postulated probability functions and specified parameters, values are generated for selected random variables, such as reservoir size. From this set of values the economic magnitudes of interest, net return and unit production cost are computed. This constitutes a single trial, and the procedure is repeated many times. The resulting histograms approximate the probability density functions of the variables which describe the economic outcomes of an exploratory drilling program.

Kaufman, G. M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Using Markov Models of Fault Growth Physics and Environmental Stresses to Optimize Control Actions

A generalized Markov chain representation of fault dynamics is presented for the case that available modeling of fault growth physics and future environmental stresses can be represented by two independent stochastic process models. A contrived but representatively challenging example will be presented and analyzed, in which uncertainty in the modeling of fault growth physics is represented by a uniformly distributed dice throwing process, and a discrete random walk is used to represent uncertain modeling of future exogenous loading demands to be placed on the system. A finite horizon dynamic programming algorithm is used to solve for an optimal control policy over a finite time window for the case that stochastic models representing physics of failure and future environmental stresses are known, and the states of both stochastic processes are observable by implemented control routines. The fundamental limitations of optimization performed in the presence of uncertain modeling information are examined by comparing the outcomes obtained from simulations of an optimizing control policy with the outcomes that would be achievable if all modeling uncertainties were removed from the system.

Bole, Brian↗

NASA NTRS2003

Vortex Loops at the Superfluid Lambda Transition: An Exact Theory?

A vortex-loop theory of the superfluid lambda transition has been developed over the last decade, with many results in agreement with experiments. It is a very simple theory, consisting of just three basic equations. When it was first proposed the main uncertainty in the theory was the use Flory scaling to find the fractal dimension of the random-walking vortex loops. Recent developments in high-resolution Monte Carlo simulations have now made it possible to verify the accuracy of this Flory-scaling assumption. Although the loop theory is not yet rigorously proven to be exact, the Monte Carlo results show at the least that it is an extremely good approximation. Recent loop calculations of the critical Casimir effect in helium films in the superfluid phase T < Tc will be compared with similar perturbative RG calculations in the normal phase T > Tc; the two calculations are found to match very nicely right at Tc.

Williams, Gary A.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub‐Saharan Africa

Smallholder farmers in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low‐input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi‐arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi‐arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in‐season soil water content from 2‐year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (i) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2], (ii) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall and (iii) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model inter-comparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation practices across SSA, because the impact of climate change will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with more mineral fertilizer.

Crop simulation model↗

NASA NTRS2011

Reliability Based Design for a Raked Wing Tip of an Airframe

A reliability-based optimization methodology has been developed to design the raked wing tip of the Boeing 767-400 extended range airliner made of composite and metallic materials. Design is formulated for an accepted level of risk or reliability. The design variables, weight and the constraints became functions of reliability. Uncertainties in the load, strength and the material properties, as well as the design variables, were modeled as random parameters with specified distributions, like normal, Weibull or Gumbel functions. The objective function and constraint, or a failure mode, became derived functions of the risk-level. Solution to the problem produced the optimum design with weight, variables and constraints as a function of the risk-level. Optimum weight versus reliability traced out an inverted-S shaped graph. The center of the graph corresponded to a 50 percent probability of success, or one failure in two samples. Under some assumptions, this design would be quite close to the deterministic optimum solution. The weight increased when reliability exceeded 50 percent, and decreased when the reliability was compromised. A design could be selected depending on the level of risk acceptable to a situation. The optimization process achieved up to a 20-percent reduction in weight over traditional design.

Patnaik, Surya N.↗