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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Unveiling the Potential of MeshGraphNets for Predicting Subsurface Evolution in Carbon Storage Projects

This is the conference paper accompanying an oral presentation “Unveiling the Potential of MeshGraphNets for Predicting Subsurface Evolution in Carbon Storage Projects” at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24 , 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is critical for mitigating climate change but requires effective subsurface reservoir management to ensure safe containment of injected CO2. Accurate predictions of reservoir pressure and saturation are essential for assessing long-term CCS performance. Traditional numerical simulations, while effective, are computationally intensive, time-consuming, and constrained by data discretization. Previous work has shown the effectiveness of MeshGraphNets (MGN), a graph-based machine learning framework, as an innovative alternative for predicting reservoir behavior. MGN leverages graph neural networks (GNNs) and mesh representations to model complex geological formations, offering superior adaptability across different discretizations and reservoir configurations. Classic MGN implementations utilize an autoregressive technique to predict future behavior based on current predictions, but this technique is hampered by error accumulation over time. To enhance the model accuracy in time-series predictions, this study implemented a multi-step rollout strategy that integrates autoregressive predictions during training to stabilize prediction of saturation over time. Using the Illinois Basin – Decatur Project (IBDP) dataset, comprising 100 simulations of CO2 injection, pressure, and saturation changes, the framework demonstrated its ability to learn spatial dependencies and temporal dynamics. With inputs including permeabilities, porosities, and injection rates, MGN accurately predicted CO2 plume evolution over time, even with limited training data. Moreover, the addition of a multi-step rollout procedure during training improved the ability of MGN to predict stably over time by ~15%. This research positions MGN, enhanced with multi-step rollout capabilities, as a robust and efficient tool for CCS applications. It advances the field by enabling precise, computationally efficient predictions of reservoir behavior, providing a foundation for the broader adoption of machine learning frameworks in CCS and other geoscience domains.

Holcomb, Paul↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the CO 2 Fertilization Effect on Extratropical Forest Productivity From Flux‐Tower Observations

Abstract The land sink of anthropogenic carbon emissions, a crucial component of mitigating climate change, is primarily attributed to the CO 2 fertilization effect on global gross primary productivity (GPP). However, direct observational evidence of this effect remains scarce, hampered by challenges in disentangling the CO 2 fertilization effect from other long‐term confounding drivers, particularly climatic changes. Here, we introduce a novel statistical approach to separate the CO 2 fertilization effect on photosynthetic carbon uptake using eddy covariance (EC) records across 38 extratropical forest sites. We find the median stimulation rate of GPP to be 3.2 ± 0.9 gC m −2 yr −1 ppm −1 (or 16.4 ± 4.2% per 100 ppm) under increasing atmospheric CO 2 across these sites, respectively. To validate the robustness of our findings, we test our statistical method using factorial simulations of an ensemble of process‐based land surface models. We address additional factors, including nitrogen deposition and land management, that may impact plant productivity, potentially confounding the attribution to the CO 2 fertilization effect. Assuming these site‐specific effects offset to some extent across sites as random factors, the estimated median value still reflects the strength of the CO 2 fertilization effect. However, disentanglement of these long‐term effects, often inseparable by timescale, requires further causal research. Our study provides direct evidence that the photosynthetic stimulation is maintained under long‐term CO 2 fertilization across multiple EC sites. Such observation‐based quantification is key to constraining the long‐standing uncertainties in the land carbon cycle under rising CO 2 concentrations.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling a divertor with mid-leg pumping for high-power H-mode scenarios in DIII-D considering E x B drift flows

Edge-plasma simulations of a baffled, long-legged divertor in DIII-D, performed using the multi-fluid code UEDGE, indicate that the position of the detachment front is constrained to the location of the pump duct along the low-field side (LFS) baffle. Simulations including magnetic and E x B drifts were performed for 12.5 MW deuterium plasmas including intrinsic carbon and seeded neon to assess the optimal location of the LFS divertor pump to create a stable detachment front between the target and the X-point. The radiation front position in the simulations, taken to be indicative of the detachment front, can be controlled between the pump and X-point in the favorable magnetic field direction for H-mode access by moving the pump duct location upstream of the target along the LFS baffle. In the unfavorable magnetic field direction, the radial E θ x B drift flows are directed towards the pumping surface, efficiently removing the injected deuterium gas and limiting the sensitivity of the radiation front location to the gas injection rate. The role of pumping rate and drift direction on the pumping efficiency are also found to affect the divertor plasma conditions and detachment front location in UEDGE simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bacterial volatile organic compound specialists in the phycosphere

Abstract Labile dissolved organic carbon in the surface oceans accounts for about one-fourth of carbon produced through photosynthesis and turns over on average every 3 days, fueling one of the largest engines of microbial heterotrophic production on the planet. Volatile organic compounds are poorly constrained components of dissolved organic carbon. Here, we detected 72 m/z signals, corresponding to unique volatile organic compounds, including petroleum hydrocarbons, totaling ~18.5 nM in the culture medium of a model diatom. In five cocultures with bacteria adapted to grow with this diatom, 1–59 m/z signals were depleted. Two of the most active volatile organic compound consumers, Marinobacter and Roseibium, contained more genes encoding volatile organic compound oxidation proteins, and attached to the diatom, suggesting volatile organic compound specialism. With nanoscale secondary ion mass spectrometry and stable isotope labeling, we confirmed that Marinobacter incorporated carbon from benzene, one of the depleted m/z signals detected in the co-culture. Diatom gross carbon production increased by up to 29% in the presence of volatile organic compound consumers, indicating that volatile organic compound consumption by heterotrophic bacteria in the phycosphere—a region of rapid organic carbon oxidation that surrounds phytoplankton cells—could impact global rates of gross primary production.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cosmic recombination in the presence of primordial magnetic fields

Primordial magnetic fields (PMFs) may explain observations of magnetic fields on extragalactic scales. They are most cleanly constrained by measurements of cosmic microwave background radiation (CMB) anisotropies. Their effects on cosmic recombination may even be at the heart of the resolution of the Hubble tension. We present the most detailed analysis of the effects of PMFs on cosmic recombination to date. To this end we extend the public magneto-hydrodynamic code ENZO with a new cosmic recombination routine, Monte-Carlo simulations of Lyman-α photon transport, and a Compton drag term in the baryon momentum equation. The resulting code allows us, for the first time, to realistically predict the impact of PMFs on the cosmic ionization history and the clumping of baryons during cosmic recombination. Our results identify the importance of mixing of Lyman-α photons between overdense- and underdense- regions for small PMF strength. This mixing speeds up recombination beyond the speed-up due to clumping. We also investigate the effects of pecuilar flows on the recombination rate and find it to be small for small PMF strengths. For non-helical PMFs with a Batchelor spectrum we find a surprising dependency of results on ultra-violet magnetic modes. We further show that the increase in the ionization fraction at low redshift by hydrodynamic baryon heating due to PMF dissipation is completely compensated by the faster recombination from baryon clumping. In conclusion, the present study shall serve as a theoretical foundation for a future precise comparison of recombination with PMFs to CMB data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scalable Circuit Cutting and Scheduling in a Resource-constrained and Distributed Quantum System

Despite quantum computing's rapid development, current systems remain limited in practical applications due to their limited qubit count and quality. Various technologies, such as superconducting, trapped ions, and neutral atom quantum computing technologies are progressing towards a fault tolerant era, however they all face a diverse set of challenges in scalability and control. Recent efforts have focused on multi-node quantum systems that connect multiple smaller quantum devices to execute larger circuits. Future demonstrations hope to use quantum channels to couple systems, however current demonstrations can leverage classical communication with circuit cutting techniques. This involves cutting large circuits into smaller subcircuits and reconstructing them post-execution. However, existing cutting methods are hindered by lengthy search times as the number of qubits and gates increases. Additionally, they often fail to effectively utilize the resources of various worker configurations in a multi-node system. To address these challenges, we introduce FitCut, a novel approach that transforms quantum circuits into weighted graphs and utilizes a community-based, bottom-up approach to cut circuits according to resource constraints, e.g., qubit counts, on each worker. FitCut also includes a scheduling algorithm that optimizes resource utilization across workers. Implemented with Qiskit and evaluated extensively, FitCut significantly outperforms the Qiskit Circuit Knitting Toolbox, reducing time costs by factors ranging from 3 to 2000 and improving resource utilization rates by up to 3.88 times on the worker side, achieving a system-wide improvement of 2.86 times.

Kan, Shuwen [Fordham University]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deployment and performance of a Low-Energy-Threshold Skipper-CCD inside a nuclear reactor

Charge Coupled Devices (CCD) are being used for reactor neutrino experiments and have already demonstrated their potential in constraining new physics models. The prospect of a Skipper-CCD experiment looking for standard and beyond standard model (BSM) physics in a nuclear reactor has been evaluated for different benchmark scenarios. Here, we report the first installation of a 2-g Skipper-CCD inside the containment building of a 2 GW th nuclear power plant and analyze its performance throughout its first 18 months of operation. The sensor was successfully deployed at Atucha II, in Argentina, 12 meters away from the center of the reactor core. We discuss the challenges involved in the commissioning of the detector and present data acquired during reactor ON and reactor OFF periods, with the sensor functioning with a sub-electron readout noise of 0.17 e - . Based on an exposure of 56.8 g day reactor ON and two reactor OFF data sets with a total exposure of 118.1 g day we characterize the system and evaluate the sensitivity to CEvNS. We achieved a background rate of 33 kdru and a low threshold of 45 eV ee . The ongoing efforts to improve sensitivities to CEvNS and BSM interaction are also discussed.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum Routing and Entanglement Dynamics Through Bottlenecks

To implement arbitrary quantum circuits in architectures with restricted interactions, one may effectively simulate all-to-all connectivity by routing quantum information. We consider the entanglement dynamics and routing between two regions only connected through an intermediate “bottleneck” region with few qubits. In such systems, where the entanglement rate is restricted by a vertex boundary rather than an edge boundary of the underlying interaction graph, existing results such as the small incremental entangling theorem give only a trivial constant lower bound on the routing time (the minimum time to perform an arbitrary permutation). We significantly improve the lower bound on the routing time in systems with a vertex bottleneck. Specifically, for any system with two regions 𝐿,𝑅 with 𝑁 𝐿 ,𝑁 𝑅 qubits, respectively, coupled only through an intermediate region 𝐶 with 𝑁 𝐶 qubits, for any 𝛿 > 0 we show a lower bound of Ω⁢(𝑁$^{1−𝛿}_{𝑅}$/√𝑁 𝐿⁢ 𝑁 𝐶 ) on the Hamiltonian quantum routing time when using piecewise time-independent Hamiltonians, or time-dependent Hamiltonians subject to a smoothness condition. We also prove an upper bound on the average amount of bipartite entanglement between 𝐿 and 𝐶,𝑅 that can be generated in time 𝑡 by such architecture-respecting Hamiltonians in systems constrained by vertex bottlenecks, improving the scaling in the system size from 𝑂⁡(𝑁 𝐿⁢ 𝑡) to 𝑂⁡(√𝑁 𝐿⁢ 𝑡). As a special case, when applied to the star graph (i.e., one vertex connected to 𝑁 leaves), we obtain an Ω⁡(√𝑁 1−𝛿 ) lower bound on the routing time and on the time to prepare 𝑁/2 Bell pairs between the vertices. We also show that, in systems of free particles, we can route optimally on the star graph in time Θ⁡(√𝑁) using Hamiltonian quantum routing, obtaining a speedup over gate-based routing, which takes time Θ⁡(𝑁).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cost impact of hexose-to-pentose sugar ratios for biomanufacturing

Central to the long-term vision for biomanufacturing is the ability to deconstruct plant cell walls to sugars that microbes can convert to products. Aside from glucose, the most abundant sugar in biomass is xylose, a pentose sugar. Industrially relevant microbes have been engineered to co-ferment xylose and glucose. Most nth plant technoeconomic analyses (TEAs) assume similar consumption rates and product yields for both sugars, but in reality, xylose is consumed more slowly. Feedstocks can be selected, or engineered, to alter the glucan-to-xylan ratio (GXR) but no TEAs have quantified the impact of this strategy systematically. This study explores the cost impacts of varying the glucan-to-xylan ratio (GXR) from 1.9 to 6.7 for co-fermenting glucose and xylose to ethanol and bisabolene. The minimum selling prices (MSPs) for both products decrease as the GXR increases, with the largest reductions at shorter residence times. For instance, with an increase in GXR from 1.9 to 6.7, ethanol’s MSP drops by 16 %, 5 %, and 3 % at 24, 72, and 144 h, respectively, while bisabolene’s MSP declines by 23 %, 20 %, and 15 % at 24, 72, and 120 h. Particularly for early-stage commercialization, the results suggest that altering or selecting for feedstocks with higher GXR can minimize capital costs by reducing optimal residence times. Capital-constrained biorefineries operating with shorter residence times can justify paying up to 1.5X to 2X the price for feedstocks with a higher GXR, based on the expected improvements in their product yield and overall process economics.

Delayed xylose utilization↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-track reconstruction algorithm in the Mu2e experiment

The Mu2e experiment, under construction at Fermilab, will search for the neutrino-less coherent $\mu^-N\rightarrow e^-N$ conversion in the field of a $^{27}$Al nucleus. Such a process violates lepton flavor conservation. About $60\%$ of muons stopped by an $^{27}$Al nucleus will undergo nuclear capture, while about $40\%$ will decay in orbit. To quantify the conversion probability, we define $R_{\mu e}$, which is given by the ratio between the $\mu^-\rightarrow e^-$ conversion rate and the nuclear capture rate [1]: \begin{equation} R_{\mu e}= \frac{\Gamma\left(\mu^- + N\left(Z,A\right)\rightarrow e^- + N\left(Z,A\right)\right)}{\Gamma\left(\mu^- + N\left(Z,A\right)\rightarrow \nu^-_\mu + N\left(Z-1,A\right)\right)}\,. \end{equation} The upper limit on $R_{\mu e}$ is $7\cdot 10^{-13}$ at $90\%$ CL, set by the SINDRUM II experiment~\cite{SINDRUM II:limit}. The goal of the Mu2e experiment is to reach a sensitivity on $R_{\mu e}$ of $8\cdot 10^{-17}$ at $90\%$ CL. This represents a four-order of magnitude improvement over the current experimental limit. Mu2e will take its first data in 2027. The signature for the muon conversion is a monochromatic electron of $104.97$~\si{\mega\eV}/c, an energy slightly below the muon rest mass. While the main experiment goal is to reconstruct the conversion electron, i.e., an event with a single track, there are motivations to develop an efficient tracking algorithm for reconstructing more simultaneous tracks. This could better constrain the background generated by $p\bar{p}$-annihilation in the Al target and to search for other Beyond the Standard Model processes. In this paper, we present an algorithm designed to reconstruct multi-particle events.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurements of the thermal and ionization state of the intergalactic medium during the cosmic afternoon

We perform the first measurement of the thermal and ionization state of the intergalactic medium (IGM) across 0.9 < z < 1.5 using 301 Ly α absorption lines fitted from 12 archival Hubble Space Telescope Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph quasar spectra. We employ the machine-learning-based inference method that uses joint Doppler parameter–column density (⁠b-N HI ⁠) distributions obtained from Ly α forest decomposition. Our results show that the Γ HI photoionization rates, ⁠, agree with recent ultraviolet background synthesis models, with log(Γ HI /s -1 ) = $-11.79^{+0.18}_{-0.15}$, $-11.98^{+0.09}_{-0.09}$⁠, and $-12.32^{+0.10}_{-0.12}$⁠, at z = 1.4, 1.2, and 1, respectively. We obtain the IGM temperature at the mean density, T 0 ⁠, and the adiabatic index, γ⁠, as [log(T 0 /K), γ] = $[4.13^{+0.12}_{-0.10}, 1.34^{+0.10}_{-0.15}]$, $[3.79^{+0.11}_{-0.11}, 1.70^{+0.09}_{-0.09}]$, and $[4.12^{+0.15}_{-0.25}, 1.34^{+0.21}_{-0.26}]$ at z = 1.4⁠, 1.2, and 1. Our measurements of T 0 at z = 1.4 and 1.2 are consistent with the trend predicted from previous z < 3 temperature measurements and theoretical expectations, where the IGM cools down after $He\tiny{II}$ reionization in the absence of any non-standard heating. However, our T 0 measurement at z = 1 unexpectedly high IGM temperature. Given the relatively large uncertainty in these measurements, where σ T$_0$ ~ 5000 K, mostly emanating from the limited size of our data set, we cannot conclude whether the IGM cools down as expected. Lastly, we generate mock data sets to test the constraining power of future measurement with larger data sets. The results demonstrate that, with redshift path-length Δz ~ 2 for each redshift bin, three times the current data set, we can constrain the T 0 of IGM within 1500 K, which would be sufficient to constrain the IGM thermal history at z < 1.5 conclusively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Self-Assembled Oligomers Facilitate Amino Acid-Driven CO 2 Capture at the Air–Aqueous Interface

Direct air capture of CO 2 using amino acid absorbents, such as glycine or sarcosine, is constrained by the relatively slow mass transfer of CO 2 through the air–aqueous interface. Our recent study showed a marked improvement in CO 2 capture by introducing CO 2 -permeable oligo-dimethylsiloxane (ODMS-MIM + ) oligomers with cationic (imidazolium, MIM + ) headgroups. Here, in this work, we have employed all-atom molecular dynamics simulations in combination with subensemble analysis using network theory to provide a detailed molecular picture of the behavior of CO 2 and the glycinate anions (Gly – ) at the ODMS-MIM + decorated air–aqueous interfaces. We show that the cationic head groups of the surfactants enhance the concentration and lifetime of Gly – in the interfacial region, while ODMS tails promote the physisorption of CO 2 in the interfacial region. Together, these two factors increase the effective region of contact and the probability of interactions between CO 2 and Gly – compared to that of the pure air–aqueous interface. The fundamental insights gained in this work establish essential foundations for developing hybrid systems with oligomer-decorated interfaces to maximize the overall CO 2 capture rates.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Diverse organic carbon dynamics captured by radiocarbon analysis of distinct compound classes in a grassland soil

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a large, dynamic reservoir composed of a complex mixture of plant- and microbe-derived compounds with a wide distribution of cycling timescales and mechanisms. The distinct residence times of individual carbon components within this reservoir depend on a combination of factors, including compound reactivity, mineral association, and climate conditions. To better constrain SOC dynamics, bulk radiocarbon measurements are commonly used to trace biosphere inputs into soils and to estimate timescales of SOC cycling. However, understanding the mechanisms driving the persistence of organic compounds in bulk soil requires analyses of SOC pools that can be linked to plant sources and microbial transformation processes. Here, we adapt approaches, previously developed for marine sediments, to isolate organic compound classes from soils for radiocarbon ( 14 C) analysis. We apply these methods to a soil profile from an annual grassland in Hopland, California (USA), to assess changes in SOC persistence with depth (down to 1 m). We measured the radiocarbon values of water-extractable organic carbon (WEOC), total lipid extracts (TLEs), total hydrolyzable amino acids (AAs), and an acid-insoluble (AI) fraction from bulk and physically separated size fractions (< 2 mm, 2 mm–63 µm, and < 63 µm). Our results show that Δ 14 C values of bulk soil, size fractions, and extracted compound classes became more depleted with depth, and individual SOC components have distinct age–depth distributions that suggest distinguishable cycling rates. We found that AAs and TLEs cycle faster than the bulk soils and the AI fraction. The AI was the most 14 C-depleted fraction, indicating that it is the most chemically inert in this soil. Our approach enables the isolation and measurement of SOC fractions that separate functionally distinct SOC pools that can cycle relatively quickly (e.g., plant and microbial residues) from more passive or inert SOC pools (associated with minerals or petrogenic) from bulk soils and soil physical fractions. With the effort to move beyond SOC bulk analysis, we find that compound class 14 C analysis can improve our understanding of SOC cycling and disentangle the physical and chemical factors driving OC cycling rates and persistence.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Valued peaks: Sustainable water allocation for small hydropower plants in an era of explicit ecological needs

Optimizing hydropower operations to balance economic profitability and support functioning ecosystem services is integral to river management policy. In this article, we propose a dynamic, constrained optimization framework for small hydropower plants (SHPs) to evaluate trade-offs between economic profitability and socio-ecological requirements. Specifically, we examine the balance between short-term losses in hydropower generation and the potential for compensatory benefits in the form of revenue from recreational ecosystem services, irrespective of the direct beneficiary. Our framework integrates a fish habitat model, a hydropower optimization model, and a recreational ecosystem service estimate to evaluate different environmental flow scenarios. The optimization process gives three outflow release scenarios, informed by previous streamflow realisations (dam inflow), and designed environmental flow constraints. The framework is applied and tested for the river Kuusinkijoki in North-eastern Finland, which is a habitat for migratory brown trout and grayling populations. We show that the revenue loss due to the environmental flow constraints arises through a reduction in revenue per generated energy unit and through a reduction in turbine efficiency. Additionally, the simulation results reveal that all the designed environmental flow constraints cannot be met simultaneously. Under the environmental flow scenario with both minimum flow and flow ramping rate constraints, the annual hydropower revenue decreases by 16.5 %. An annual increase of 8 % in recreational fishing visits offsets the revenue loss. In conclusion, the developed framework provides knowledge of the costs and benefits of hydropower environmental flow constraints and guides the prioritizing process of environmental measures.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Congo Basin Water Balance and Terrestrial Fluxes Inferred From Satellite Observations of the Isotopic Composition of Water Vapor

Large spatio-temporal gradients in the Congo basin vegetation and rainfall are observed. However, its water-balance (evapotranspiration minus precipitation, or ET - P) is typically measured at basin-scales, limited primarily by river-discharge data, spatial resolution of terrestrial water storage measurements, and poorly constrained ET. We use observations of the isotopic composition of water vapor to quantify the spatio-temporal variability of net surface water fluxes across the Congo Basin between 2003 and 2018. These data are calibrated at basin scale using satellite gravity and total Congo river discharge measurements and then used to estimate time-varying ET - P over four quadrants representing the Congo Basin, providing first estimates of this kind for the region. We find that the multi-year record, seasonality, and interannual variability of ET - P from both the isotopes and the gravity/river discharge based estimates are consistent. Additionally, we use precipitation and gravity-based estimates with our water vapor isotope-based ET - P to calculate time and space averaged ET and net river discharge within the Congo Basin. These quadrant-scale moisture flux estimates indicate (a) substantial recycling of moisture in the Congo Basin (temporally and spatially averaged ET/P > 70%), consistent with models and visible light-based ET estimates, and (b) net river outflow is largest in the Western Congo where there are more rivers and higher flow rates. Our results confirm the importance of ET in modulating the Congo water cycle relative to other water sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Beyond $\rho ^{2/3}$ scaling: microscopic origins and multimessengers of high-density nuclear symmetry energy

The nature and Equation of State (EOS) of dense neutron-rich matter are still very poorly known, while they have broad impacts on many interesting issues in both astrophysics and nuclear physics. In particular, the nuclear symmetry energy $E_{\textrm{sym}}(\rho )$ encoding the cost to make nuclear matter more neutron-rich has been the most uncertain component of the EOS of dense neutron-rich nucleonic matter. It significantly affects the radii, tidal deformations, cooling rates, and frequencies of various oscillation modes of isolated neutron stars as well as the strain amplitude and frequencies of gravitational waves from their mergers, besides its many effects on the structures of nuclei as well as the dynamics and observables of their collisions. Siemens (1970s) observed that $E_{\textrm{sym}}(\rho )$ scales as $(\rho /\rho _0)^{2/3}$ near the saturation density $\rho _0$ of nuclear matter, since both the kinetic part and the potential contribution (quadratic in momentum) exhibit this dependence. The scaling holds if: (1) the nucleon isoscalar potential is quadratic in momentum, and (2) the isovector interaction is weakly density-dependent. After examining many empirical evidences and understanding theoretical findings in the literature, we conclude that: (1) Siemens’ $\rho ^{2/3}$ scaling is robust and serves as a valuable benchmark for both nuclear theories and experiments up to $2\rho _0$ but breaks down at higher densities, (2) Experimental and theoretical findings about $E_{\textrm{sym}}(\rho )$ up to $2\rho _0$ are broadly consistent, but uncertainties remain large for its curvature $K_{\textrm{sym}}(\rho )$ and higher-order parameters, (3) Above $2\rho _0$ , uncertainties grow due to poorly constrained spin-isospin-dependent tensor and three-body forces as well as the resulting nucleon short-range correlations. Looking forward, combining signals from both observations of neutron stars and terrestrial heavy-ion reaction experiments is the most promising path to finally constraining the high-density $E_{\textrm{sym}}(\rho )$ and the EOS of supradense neutron-rich matter. Multiple examples of community efforts to further constrain the high-density $E_{\textrm{sym}}(\rho )$ using both real and mocked data of present and future high-precision observations of neutron stars, as well as heavy-ion collisions involving high-energy rare isotopes, are briefly reviewed.

Li, Bao-An [East Texas A & M Univ., Commerce, TX (↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying uncertainty in physics-based predictions of rare-isotope production cross sections via Bayesian-inspired model averaging across nuclear mass tables

Accurate prediction of fragmentation cross sections is essential for rare-isotope beam production, planning new-isotope searches, and designing experiments to study the most exotic regions of the nuclear chart. However, existing reaction models and phenomenological cross-section parametrizations often exhibit significant deviations over broad regions of mass and charge. In this work, a Bayesian-inspired model-averaging framework is developed to combine abrasion-ablation (AA) calculations based on multiple nuclear mass tables into a single statistically weighted estimate. For the calibrated systems, the model weights are assigned empirically according to the relative quality of fit to measured cross sections, thereby reducing systematic model bias while preserving the underlying physics content of the AA description. The weights are constrained using proton-rich fragmentation data for the 78 Kr and 124 Xe projectiles. The resulting parameter trends are then propagated to the 92 Mo and 144 Sm systems through a controlled scaling procedure. In the present implementation, the excitation-energy prescription is fixed, while the averaging is performed across nuclear-mass inputs; the framework provides both weighted cross sections and associated uncertainty estimates. Applied to proton-rich fragmentation, the present approach provides a practical basis for interpolation and limited extrapolation in regions relevant to rare-isotope production. The resulting predictions are used to assess the production of very proton-rich nuclei, and candidate new isotopes are discussed.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating the limitations of Bayesian metabolic control analysis

Bayesian Metabolic Control Analysis (BMCA) is a promising framework for inferring metabolic control coefficients in data-limited scenarios, combining Bayesian inference with linear-logarithmic (lin-log) rate laws. These metabolic control coefficients quantify how changes in enzyme activities affect steady-state fluxes and metabolite concentrations across a metabolic network. However, its predictive accuracy and limitations remain underexplored. This study systematically evaluates BMCA’s ability to infer elasticity values, flux control coefficients (FCC), and concentration control coefficients (CCC) under varying data availability conditions using three synthetic metabolic network models. We demonstrate that BMCA predictions are highly dependent on the inclusion of flux and enzyme concentration data, with the omission of these datasets leading to severe inaccuracies. In our synthetic, enzyme-perturbation datasets, external metabolite concentrations had minimal impact and, in some cases, their exclusion improved predictions; when external-nutrient perturbations were introduced and those concentrations were observed, gains were at most modest. Additionally, we find that posterior estimation with both ADVI and HMC can underestimate large-magnitude elasticities in our synthetic settings, with ADVI showing somewhat higher variance under strong up-regulation; thus, recovering |elasticity| ≳ 1.5 remains challenging regardless of the inference engine. ADVI also fails to accurately infer allosteric interactions, even when regulatory effects are strong. While BMCA maintains reasonable accuracy in partially recovering the rankings of the highest FCC values, its estimates of absolute values remain constrained by prior assumptions and data limitations. Our findings reveal the BMCA algorithm’s strengths and weaknesses, providing guidance on its application in metabolic engineering, and highlighting the need for methodological refinements to enhance its predictive capabilities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗