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At least 235 records · Page 13

A Markov model reduction technique for fault tolerant processor reliability analysis

A fault tolerant processor (FTP) plays a key role in many high performance, safety-critical control system applications. Realistic modeling of an FTP is crucial to gaining a high degree of confidence in the reliability and safety analysis of such a system. While fidelity is clearly a major consideration, a practical model must also be kept to a moderate size to allow its incorporation into the overall system model. This paper presents a systematic reduction technique that starts from a complex, detailed model of a triple, redundant FTP and produces a low order approximation of very high accuracy. The existence of two distinct time scales represents the key to the success of the technique. No eigenvalue solution or coordinate transformation are needed. The reduced model captures all the important features of the detailed model, is amenable to an analytical solution and provides insight into the reconfiguration behavior of an FTP.

Schor, Andrei L.↗

Adams-Based Rover Terramechanics and Mobility Simulator - ARTEMIS

The Mars Exploration Rovers (MERs), Spirit and Opportunity, far exceeded their original drive distance expectations and have traveled, at the time of this reporting, a combined 29 kilometers across the surface of Mars. The Rover Sequencing and Visualization Program (RSVP), the current program used to plan drives for MERs, is only a kinematic simulator of rover movement. Therefore, rover response to various terrains and soil types cannot be modeled. Although sandbox experiments attempt to model rover-terrain interaction, these experiments are time-intensive and costly, and they cannot be used within the tactical timeline of rover driving. Imaging techniques and hazard avoidance features on MER help to prevent the rover from traveling over dangerous terrains, but mobility issues have shown that these methods are not always sufficient. ARTEMIS, a dynamic modeling tool for MER, allows planned drives to be simulated before commands are sent to the rover. The deformable soils component of this model allows rover-terrain interactions to be simulated to determine if a particular drive path would take the rover over terrain that would induce hazardous levels of slip or sink. When used in the rover drive planning process, dynamic modeling reduces the likelihood of future mobility issues because high-risk areas could be identified before drive commands are sent to the rover, and drives planned over these areas could be rerouted. The ARTEMIS software consists of several components. These include a preprocessor, Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), Adams rover model, wheel and soil parameter files, MSC Adams GUI (commercial), MSC Adams dynamics solver (commercial), terramechanics subroutines (FORTRAN), a contact detection engine, a soil modification engine, and output DEMs of deformed soil. The preprocessor is used to define the terrain (from a DEM) and define the soil parameters for the terrain file. The Adams rover model is placed in this terrain. Wheel and soil parameter files can be altered in the respective text files. The rover model and terrain are viewed in Adams View, the GUI for ARTEMIS. The Adams dynamics solver calls terramechanics subroutines in FORTRAN containing the Bekker-Wong equations.

Trease, Brian P.↗

Integrated Vehicle Ground Vibration Testing in Support of Launch Vehicle Loads and Controls Analysis

NASA has conducted dynamic tests on each major launch vehicle during the past 45 years. Each test provided invaluable data to correlate and correct analytical models. GVTs result in hardware changes to Saturn and Space Shuttle, ensuring crew and vehicle safety. Ares I IVGT will provide test data such as natural frequencies, mode shapes, and damping to support successful Ares I flights. Testing will support controls analysis by providing data to reduce model uncertainty. Value of testing proven by past launch vehicle successes and failures. Performing dynamic testing on Ares vehicles will provide confidence that the launch vehicles will be safe and successful in their missions.

Tuma, Margaret L.↗

Twin Jet Effects on Noise of Round and Rectangular Jets: Experiment and Model

Many subsonic and supersonic aircraft concepts proposed by NASA's Fundamental Aeronautics Program have asymmetric, integrated propulsion systems. The asymmetries in the exhaust of these propulsion systems create an asymmetric acoustic field. The asymmetries investigated in the current study are from twin jets and rectangular nozzles. Each effect produces its own variation of the acoustic field. An empirical model was developed to predict the acoustic field variation from round twin jets with twin jet spacing from 2.6 to 5.6, where s is the center-to-center spacing over the jet diameter. The model includes parameters to account for the effects of twin jet spacing, jet static temperature ratio, flight Mach number, frequency, and observer angle (both polar and azimuthal angles). The model was then applied to twin 2:1 and 8:1 aspect ratio nozzles to determine the impact of jet aspect ratio. For the round and rectangular jets, the use of the model reduces the average magnitude of the error over all frequencies, observation angles, and jet spacings by approximately 0.5dB when compared against the assumption of adding two jets incoherently.

Noise↗

Decomposition of the Mean Squared Error and NSE Performance Criteria: Implications for Improving Hydrological Modelling

The mean squared error (MSE) and the related normalization, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), are the two criteria most widely used for calibration and evaluation of hydrological models with observed data. Here, we present a diagnostically interesting decomposition of NSE (and hence MSE), which facilitates analysis of the relative importance of its different components in the context of hydrological modelling, and show how model calibration problems can arise due to interactions among these components. The analysis is illustrated by calibrating a simple conceptual precipitation-runoff model to daily data for a number of Austrian basins having a broad range of hydro-meteorological characteristics. Evaluation of the results clearly demonstrates the problems that can be associated with any calibration based on the NSE (or MSE) criterion. While we propose and test an alternative criterion that can help to reduce model calibration problems, the primary purpose of this study is not to present an improved measure of model performance. Instead, we seek to show that there are systematic problems inherent with any optimization based on formulations related to the MSE. The analysis and results have implications to the manner in which we calibrate and evaluate environmental models; we discuss these and suggest possible ways forward that may move us towards an improved and diagnostically meaningful approach to model performance evaluation and identification.

Gupta, Hoshin V.↗

Evaluating the Impact of Chemical Complexity and Horizontal Resolution on Tropospheric Ozone Over the Conterminous US With a Global Variable Resolution Chemistry Model

A new configuration of the Community Earth System Model (CESM)/Community Atmosphere Model with full chemistry (CAM-chem) supporting the capability of horizontal mesh refinement through the use of the spectral element (SE) dynamical core is developed and called CESM/CAM-chem-SE. Horizontal mesh refinement in CESM/CAM-chem-SE is unique and novel in that pollutants such as ozone are accurately represented at human exposure relevant scales while also directly including global feedbacks. CESM/CAM-chem-SE with mesh refinement down to ∼14 km over the conterminous US (CONUS) is the beginning of the Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICAv0). Here MUSICAv0 is evaluated and used to better understand how horizontal resolution and chemical complexity impact ozone and ozone precursors over CONUS as compared to measurements from five aircraft campaigns, which occurred in 2013. This field campaign analysis demonstrates the importance of using finer horizontal resolution to accurately simulate ozone precursors such as nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide. In general, the impact of using more complex chemistry on ozone and other oxidation products is more pronounced when using finer horizontal resolution where a larger number of chemical regimes are resolved. Large model biases for ozone near the surface remain in the Southeast US as compared to the aircraft observations even with updated chemistry and finer horizontal resolution. This suggests a need for adding the capability of replacing sections of global emission inventories with regional inventories, increasing the vertical resolution in the planetary boundary layer, and reducing model biases in meteorological variables such as temperature and clouds.

MUSICA↗

Enhanced Method Of Reduction Of Dynamical Models

Enhanced projection-and-assembly method is recent product of efforts to model mathematically dynamics of vibrations of large, flexible structures. In projection-and-assembly method modes contributing significantly to control input and output points selected at system (overall structure) level, then projected (in abstract mathematical sense) onto components of system. In enhanced version, static correction modes capture static contributions of those modes neglected in reduced-order model. Reduced models for suppressing vibrations of structures made more accurate.

Lee, Allan Y.↗

An analytical and experimental investigation of output feedback vs. linear quadratic regulator

This paper presents analytical and experimental comparison of three control laws for a laboratory structure designed to simulate large space structures. The first control law is the standard time invariant linear quadratic regulator with state estimation, which requires model reduction for practical implementation. This model reduction is associated with the so-called spillover instability. Two new simple direct output feedback control laws guaranteeing stability are proposed. One minimizes the maximum control force, and the other minimizes the same quadratic performance index as the linear quadratic regulator. The three control laws are found to give comparable performance for the modes retained in the reduced model. However, the standard linear quadratic regulator with state estimation provides almost no margin of stability for the unmodeled modes, while the simpler direct feedback laws provide significant stability margins to all modes. The analytical results were verified experimentally using a digital implementation of the control laws. Good agreement between the analytical predictions and experimental measurements was observed.

Martinovic, Zoran N.↗

Model reduction for the dynamics and control of large structural systems via neutral network processing direct numerical optimization

Three neural network processing approaches in a direct numerical optimization model reduction scheme are proposed and investigated. Large structural systems, such as large space structures, offer new challenges to both structural dynamicists and control engineers. One such challenge is that of dimensionality. Indeed these distributed parameter systems can be modeled either by infinite dimensional mathematical models (typically partial differential equations) or by high dimensional discrete models (typically finite element models) often exhibiting thousands of vibrational modes usually closely spaced and with little, if any, damping. Clearly, some form of model reduction is in order, especially for the control engineer who can actively control but a few of the modes using system identification based on a limited number of sensors. Inasmuch as the amount of 'control spillover' (in which the control inputs excite the neglected dynamics) and/or 'observation spillover' (where neglected dynamics affect system identification) is to a large extent determined by the choice of particular reduced model (RM), the way in which this model reduction is carried out is often critical.

Becus, Georges A.↗

Creep-rupture reliability analysis

A probabilistic approach to the correlation and extrapolation of creep-rupture data is presented. Time temperature parameters (TTP) are used to correlate the data, and an analytical expression for the master curve is developed. The expression provides a simple model for the statistical distribution of strength and fits neatly into a probabilistic design format. The analysis focuses on the Larson-Miller and on the Manson-Haferd parameters, but it can be applied to any of the TTP's. A method is developed for evaluating material dependent constants for TTP's. It is shown that optimized constants can provide a significant improvement in the correlation of the data, thereby reducing modelling error. Attempts were made to quantify the performance of the proposed method in predicting long term behavior. Uncertainty in predicting long term behavior from short term tests was derived for several sets of data. Examples are presented which illustrate the theory and demonstrate the application of state of the art reliability methods to the design of components under creep.

Peralta-Duran, A.↗

Creep-rupture reliability analysis

A probabilistic approach to the correlation and extrapolation of creep-rupture data is presented. Time temperature parameters (TTP) are used to correlate the data, and an analytical expression for the master curve is developed. The expression provides a simple model for the statistical distribution of strength and fits neatly into a probabilistic design format. The analysis focuses on the Larson-Miller and on the Manson-Haferd parameters, but it can be applied to any of the TTP's. A method is developed for evaluating material dependent constants for TTP's. It is shown that optimized constants can provide a significant improvement in the correlation of the data, thereby reducing modelling error. Attempts were made to quantify the performance of the proposed method in predicting long term behavior. Uncertainty in predicting long term behavior from short term tests was derived for several sets of data. Examples are presented which illustrate the theory and demonstrate the application of state of the art reliability methods to the design of components under creep.

Peralta-Duran, A.↗

Physics-Based SNOWPACK Model Improves Representation of Near-Surface Antarctic Snow and Firn Density

Estimates of snow and firn density are required for satellite-altimetry-based retrievals of ice sheet mass balance that rely on volume-to-mass conversions. Therefore, biases and errors in presently used density models confound assessments of ice sheet mass balance and by extension ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. Despite this importance, most contemporary firn densification models rely on simplified semi-empirical methods, which are partially reflected by significant modeled density errors when compared to observations. In this study, we present a new drifting-snow compaction scheme that we have implemented into SNOWPACK, a physics-based land surface snow model. We show that our new scheme improves existing versions of SNOWPACK by increasing simulated near-surface (defined as the top 10 m) density to be more in line with observations (near-surface bias reduction from −44.9 to −5.4 kg m−3). Furthermore, we demonstrate high-quality simulation of near-surface Antarctic snow and firn density at 122 observed density profiles across the Antarctic ice sheet, as indicated by reduced model biases throughout most of the near-surface firn column when compared to two semi-empirical firn densification models (SNOWPACK mean bias=−9.7 kg m−3, IMAU-FDM mean bias=−32.5 kg m−3, GSFC-FDM mean bias=15.5 kg m−3). Notably, our analysis is restricted to the near surface where firn density is most variable due to accumulation and compaction variability driven by synoptic weather and seasonal climate variability. Additionally, the GSFC-FDM exhibits lower mean density bias from 7–10 m (SNOWPACK bias=−22.5 kg m−3, GSFC-FDM bias=10.6 kg m−3) and throughout the entire near surface at high-accumulation sites (SNOWPACK bias=−31.4 kg m−3, GSFC-FDM bias=−4.7 kg m−3). However, we found that the performance of SNOWPACK did not degrade when applied to sites that were not included in the calibration of semi-empirical models. This suggests that SNOWPACK may possibly better represent firn properties in locations without extensive observations and under future climate scenarios, when firn properties are expected to diverge from their present state.

Eric Keenan↗

Large space structure model reduction and control system design based upon actuator and sensor influence functions

A model reduction procedure based on aggregation with respect to sensor and actuator influences rather than modes is presented for large systems of coupled second-order differential equations. Perturbation expressions which can predict the effects of spillover on both the aggregated and residual states are derived. These expressions lead to the development of control system design constraints which are sufficient to guarantee, to within the validity of the perturbations, that the residual states are not destabilized by control systems designed from the reduced model. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the application of the aggregation and control system design method.

Yam, Y.↗

Low-Dimensional Dynamical Models of Thermal Convection

A low-dimensional dynamic model for transitional buoyancy-driven flow in a differentially heated tall enclosure is presented. The full governing partial differential equations with the associated boundary conditions are solved by a spectral element method for a cavity of aspect ratio A=20. Proper orthogonal decomposition is applied to the oscillatory solution at Prandtl number Pr=P tau (omega) = 0.71 and Grashof number G tau (omega) = 3.2 x 10 (exp 4) to construct empirical eigenfunctions. Using the four most energetic empirical eigenfunctions for the velocity and temperature as basis functions and applying Galerkin's method, a reduced model consisting of eight nonlinear ordinary differential equations is obtained. Close to the 'design' conditions (P tau(omega) G tau(omega)), the low-order model (LOM) predictions are in excellent agreement with the predictions of the full model. In particular, the critical Grashof number at the onset of the first temporal flow instability (Hopf bifurcation) was well as the frequency and amplitude of oscillations at supercritical conditions are in excellent agreement with the predictions of the full model. Far from the 'design' conditions, the LOM predicts the existence of multiple stable steady solutions at large values of G tau, and a unique stable steady solution at small values of G tau, and exhibits hysteretic behavior that is qualitatively similar to that observed in direct numerical simulations based on the full model.

Liakopoulos, Anthony↗

Modelling and Estimation of Dynamic Ocean Topography Within Global Geopotential Solutions

In this poster, we will present a report on the ongoing investigation "Improved Gravitational and Dynamic Height Models Through the use of Oceanographic Data." we have used a two year mean (1993-1994) of the Dynamic ocean Topography (DOT) field implied by the Semtner and Chervin POCM_4B model, and developed normal equations in surface spherical harmonics to degree and order 30. These normal equations, were combined with normal equations derived from TOPEX and ERS-1 altimeter data over the same time period. Combination solutions (based on satellite tracking data, altimeter data, surface gravity data and OCM data) were were developed Test solutions were obtained estimating the DOT field to 2Ox2O and 3ox3O. These solutions were tested with independent DOT values computed over 38 WOCE hydrographic sections, which contained a total of 3072 stations and represented 216000 km of travelled lines. The weighted standard deviation of the differences between the DOT obtained from the hydrographic data and and the field estimated from the joint combination solutions was computed for each of the test models, the weighted standard deviation for the baseline combination solution excluding the POCM4_B data was 9.7 cm for a DOT solution to 30x30, where introducing the POCM4_B data into the combination model reduced the standard deviation to 9.2 cm, indicating the the introduction of oceanographic information benefits the solution for the dynamic ocean topography. We will discuss the weighting schemes applied and the method of solution. Another aspect of our investigation involves testing alternate parametric representations of the dynamic height field. We looked at the alternative representations in terms of the Proudman functions (PF), and compared these to the use of spherical harmonics (SH) to represent the dynamic ocean topography, using once again the 1993 and 1994 output of the POCM4_B OCM as the reference model. A significant advantage of PF's over SH's is that the former require no "fill-in" values over areas where the DOT is undefined. We show that the PF and SH results using equal number of parameters agree quite well in overall content. In addition, PFs appear better suited for representation of high frequency signals close to the signal boundary. The development of the PF solutions for the DOT will be described and the statistics of the comparisons will be presented.

Lemoine, Frank G.↗

Damage detection in elastic structures using vibratory residual forces and weighted sensitivity

A methodology is presented for detecting structural damage in elastic structures by nondestructive means. Measured modal test data along with a correlated analytical structural model are used to locate potentially damaged regions using residual modal force vectors and to conduct a weighted sensitivity analysis to assess the extent of mass and/or stiffness variations, where damage is characterized as a stiffness reduction. The current approach is unique among other approaches in that it accounts for (1) variations in system mass, system stiffness, and mass center (locations), (2) perturbations of both the natural frequencies and modal vectors, and (3) statistical confidence factors for the structural parameters and potential experimental instrumentation error. Moreover, this procedure can be used with either full or reduced models. A wide variety of numerical examples are presented that show that the current method provides a precise indication of both the location and the extent of structural damage.

Ricles, J. M.↗

Monte Carlo predictions of DNA fragment-size distributions for large sizes after HZE particle irradiation

DSBs (double-strand breaks) produced by densely ionizing space radiation are not located randomly in the genome: recent data indicate DSB clustering along chromosomes. DSB clustering at large scales, from >100 Mbp down to approximately 2 kbp, is modeled using a Monte-Carlo algorithm. A random-walk model of chromatin is combined with a track model, that predicts the radial distribution of energy from an ion, and the RLC (randomly-located-clusters) formalism, in software called DNAbreak. This model generalizes the random-breakage model, whose broken-stick fragment-size distribution is applicable to low-LET radiation. DSB induction due to track interaction with the DNA volume depends on the radiation quality parameter Q. This dose-independent parameter depends only weakly on LET. Multi-track, high-dose effects depend on the cluster intensity parameter lambda, proportional to fluence as defined by the RLC formalism. After lambda is determined by a numerical experiment, the model reduces to one adjustable parameter Q. The best numerical fits to the experimental data, determining Q, are obtained. The knowledge of lambda and Q allows us to give biophysically based extrapolations of high-dose DNA fragment-size data to low doses or to high LETs.

NASA Center JSC↗

Source Data Impacts on Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Fault Tree Models

Launch vehicle systems are designed and developed using both heritage and new hardware. Design modifications to the heritage hardware to fit new functional system requirements can impact the applicability of heritage reliability data. Risk estimates for newly designed systems must be developed from generic data sources such as commercially available reliability databases using reliability prediction methodologies, such as those addressed in MIL-HDBK-217F. Failure estimates must be converted from the generic environment to the specific operating environment of the system in which it is used. In addition, some qualification of applicability for the data source to the current system should be made. Characterizing data applicability under these circumstances is crucial to developing model estimations that support confident decisions on design changes and trade studies. This paper will demonstrate a data-source applicability classification method for suggesting epistemic component uncertainty to a target vehicle based on the source and operating environment of the originating data. The source applicability is determined using heuristic guidelines while translation of operating environments is accomplished by applying statistical methods to MIL-HDK-217F tables. The paper will provide one example for assigning environmental factors uncertainty when translating between operating environments for the microelectronic part-type components. The heuristic guidelines will be followed by uncertainty-importance routines to assess the need for more applicable data to reduce model uncertainty.

Al Hassan, Mohammad↗