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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Ensemble Estimation of Historical Evapotranspiration for the Conterminous U.S.

Abstract Evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest component of the water budget, accounting for the majority of the water available from precipitation. ET is challenging to quantify because of the uncertainties associated with the many ET equations currently in use, and because observations of ET are uncertain and sparse. In this study, we combine information provided by available ET data and equations to produce a new monthly data set for ET for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). These maps are produced from 1895 to 2018 at an 800 m spatial scale, marking a finer resolution than currently available products over this time period. In our approach, the relative performance of a suite of ET equations is assessed using water balance, flux tower, and remotely sensed ET estimates. At the observation locations, we use error distributions to quantify relative weights for the equations and use these in a modified Bayesian model averaging weighted ensemble approach. The relative weights are spatially generalized using a random forest regression, which is applied to wall‐to‐wall explanatory variable maps to generate CONUS‐wide relative weight maps and ensemble estimates. We assess the performance of the ensemble using a reserved subset of the observations and compare this performance against other national‐scale map products for historical to modern ET. The ensemble ET maps are shown to provide an improved accuracy over the alternative comparison products. These ET maps could be useful for a variety of hydrologic modeling and assessment applications that benefit from a long record, such as the study of periods of water scarcity through time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulation driven adaptive sampling for neutron-diffraction based strain mapping of additively manufactured parts

Neutron diffraction based strain mapping is a useful technique for measuring residual strains in additively manufactured (AM) metal parts. The measurement is traditionally done by scanning the sample in a point-wise raster pattern to extract the strain at each position. Since the overall scan can span several hours, adaptive sampling approaches using Bayesian optimization based on Gaussian process (BO-GP) regression have been introduced—demonstrating that even with a fraction of the typically made measurements the dominant strain patterns in the sample can be reconstructed. However, the parameters of the BO-GP algorithm have to be carefully chosen for best performance, and the movement time between arbitrary points can offset the time savings from a reduced number of measurement locations. In this paper, we propose algorithms to refine the BO-GP based methods by using simulations of strain patterns in AM parts based on the materials and the process used to print them. We demonstrate that the simulated strain patterns can be used to help choose better parameters for the BO-GP based framework—leading to low reconstruction error for the final strain pattern. Furthermore, we show that the strain mapping experiment can be initialized with a sampling pattern learnt from the simulation data and ordered to reduce movement time, dramatically enabling reduction in the overall time required to run the baseline BO-GP method.

Gaussian process regression↗
DOE OSTI2022

Zero-Truncated Poisson Tensor Decomposition for Sparse Count Data

We propose a novel statistical inference paradigm for zero-inflated multiway count data that dispenses with the need to distinguish between true and false zero counts. Our approach ignores all zero entries and applies zero-truncated Poisson regression on the positive counts. Inference is accomplished via tensor completion that imposes low-rank structure on the Poisson parameter space. Our main result shows that an $\textit{N}$-way rank-R parametric tensor 𝓜 ϵ (0, ∞) $I$Χ∙∙∙Χ$I$ generating Poisson observations can be accurately estimated from approximately $IR^2 \text{log}^2_2(I)$ non-zero counts for a nonnegative canonical polyadic decomposition. Several numerical experiments are presented demonstrating that our zero-truncated paradigm is comparable to the ideal scenario where the locations of false zero counts are known $\textit{a priori}$.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the estimation of boundary layer heights: a machine learning approach

Abstract. The planetary boundary layer height (zi) is a key parameter used in atmospheric models for estimating the exchange of heat, momentum, and moisture between the surface and the free troposphere. Near-surface atmospheric and subsurface properties (such as soil temperature, relative humidity, etc.) are known to have an impact on zi. Nevertheless, precise relationships between these surface properties and zi are less well known and not easily discernible from the multi-year dataset. Machine learning approaches, such as random forest (RF), which use a multi-regression framework, help to decipher some of the physical processes linking surface-based characteristics to zi. In this study, a 4-year dataset from 2016 to 2019 at the Southern Great Plains site is used to develop and test a machine learning framework for estimating zi. Parameters derived from Doppler lidars are used in combination with over 20 different surface meteorological measurements as inputs to a RF model. The model is trained using radiosonde-derived zi values spanning the period from 2016 through 2018 and then evaluated using data from 2019. Results from 2019 showed significantly better agreement with the radiosonde compared to estimates derived from a thresholding technique using Doppler lidars only. Noteworthy improvements in daytime zi estimates were observed using the RF model, with a 50 % improvement in mean absolute error and an R2 of greater than 85 % compared to the Tucker method zi. We also explore the effect of zi uncertainty on convective velocity scaling and present preliminary comparisons between the RF model and zi estimates derived from atmospheric models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model-driven prediction for accelerator magnet diagnostics to improve operation reliability

Reliability is one of the most critical metrics for accelerator operation, especially in user facilities. To reduce costly facility downtime and provide an operational environment where system performance can be reliably predicted in support of scientific studies, we are developing a model-driven approach for prediction and anomaly detection. Here, in this study, we present the application of a model-driven method that employs a linear regression model to predict the future temperature, in real time, of accelerator magnets at the NSLS-II light source. This approach enables proactive identification of magnet-heating issues, facilitating magnet flushing prior to the occurrence of permanent damage without interrupting machine operation. The implementation of this method in the NSLS-II control room is described and the analysis of the online results is presented. The results demonstrate the model’s effectiveness in providing early alerts to engineers and improving the reliability of accelerator operations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Degeneracy engineering for classical and quantum annealing: A case study of sparse linear regression in collider physics

Classical and quantum annealing are computing paradigms that have been proposed to solve a wide range of optimization problems. In this paper, we aim to enhance the performance of annealing algorithms by introducing the technique of degeneracy engineering, through which the relative degeneracy of the ground state is increased by modifying a subset of terms in the objective Hamiltonian. We illustrate this novel approach by applying it to the example of ℓ 0 -norm regularization for sparse linear regression, which is, in general, an NP-hard optimization problem. Specifically, we show how to cast ℓ 0 -norm regularization as a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) problem, suitable for implementation on annealing platforms. As a case study, we apply this QUBO formulation to energy flow polynomials in high-energy collider physics, finding that degeneracy engineering substantially improves the annealing performance. Furthermore, our results motivate the application of degeneracy engineering to a variety of regularized optimization problems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identification and correction of temporal and spatial distortions in scanning transmission electron microscopy

Scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) has become the technique of choice for quantitative characterization of atomic structure of materials, where the minute displacements of atomic columns from high-symmetry positions can be used to map strain, polarization, octahedra tilts, and other physical and chemical order parameter fields. The latter can be used as inputs into mesoscopic and atomistic models, providing insight into the correlative relationships and generative physics of materials on the atomic level. However, these quantitative applications of STEM necessitate understanding the microscope induced image distortions and developing the pathways to compensate them both as part of a rapid calibration procedure for in situ imaging, and the post-experimental data analysis stage. Here, we explore the spatiotemporal structure of the microscopic distortions in STEM using multivariate analysis of the atomic trajectories in the image stacks. Based on the behavior of principal component analysis (PCA), we develop the Gaussian process (GP)-based regression method for quantification of the distortion function. The limitations of such an approach and possible strategies for implementation as a part of in-line data acquisition in STEM are discussed. Here, the analysis workflow is summarized in a Jupyter notebook that can be used to retrace the analysis and analyze the reader's data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven search for promising intercalating ions and layered materials for metal-ion batteries

The rise in demand for lithium-ion batteries has led to a large-scale search for electrode materials and intercalating ion species to meet the demands of next-generation energy technologies. Recent efforts largely focus on searching for cathodes that can accommodate large amounts of intercalating ions, but similar work on anodes is relatively limited. This study utilizes machine learning methods to find alternative two-dimensional (2D) materials and intercalating ions beyond Li for metal-ion batteries with high-power efficiencies. The approach first uses density functional theory (DFT) calculations to estimate the theoretical capacities and voltages of various metal ions on 2D materials. The DFT-generated data also provide insights into the local structural accommodation upon ion intercalation on various 2D materials. Significant changes to the lattice can result in irreversible changes to the bonding environments in the anode material, resulting in poor cycling stability. Next, this study develops a binding energy and structural accommodation-based classification model to screen anode materials for next-generation batteries. The classification model selects intercalating ions and 2D material pairs suitable for batteries based on the calculated voltage and volumetric changes in the 2D material upon intercalation. Finally, this study builds a regression model to accurately predict the binding energies of the various intercalating ions on 2D materials. The approach highlights the importance of different elemental and structural features for classification and regression tasks. In conclusion, the insights gained from this study on the role of involved features, such as electronegativities of the constituent ions and the presence of unfilled electronic levels, will help to streamline further studies towards the search for future layered battery materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

How Wrong Can the Operational AEP Uncertainty Estimate Be When We Ignore the Correlations Between the Uncertainty Components?

Calculations of wind farm annual energy production (AEP) on operational data are essential for a variety of financial transactions during the life of wind plants. The AEP estimate is associated with an uncertainty value, which is calculated by combining contributions connected to on-site measurements, long-term reference measurements, losses, regression, windiness adjustment, and wind resource interannual variability. Although very limited documentation on the topic exists, the conventional approach currently used by the wind energy community to assess the uncertainty connected to the operational AEP estimate assume that the different uncertainty components are uncorrelated and therefore calculates the overall uncertainty with a sum of squares approach. In this analysis, we contrast the traditional technique to estimate the overall AEP uncertainty by ignoring the correlation between its different components with a novel Monte Carlo based approach, which can instead take into account the correlation between different uncertainty categories. We consider monthly operational data from 472 wind farms from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) 923 database to assess the difference between the two approaches. Long-term wind speed data needed for the AEP assessment are taken from three reanalysis products: the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications v2 (MERRA-2), the European Reanalysis Interim (ERA-interim), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction v2 (NCEP-2). The results of the Monte Carlo approach show that three pairs of AEP uncertainty components do show a statistically significant correlation: the uncertainty connected with wind resource inter-annual variability is positively correlated with the one related to the windiness correction and negatively correlated with the one due to the regression, and the wind measurement uncertainty is positively correlated with the regression uncertainty. All these correlations, which are found between uncertainty components which are not only part of an operational analysis, but also of a wind resource assessment, are currently ignored in the conventional techniques used as industry standard. We further investigate the causes of these correlations, in terms of common dependencies of different uncertainty components on wind resource variability, number of data points, and quality of the regression between wind speed and energy production data. Next, we quantify the error in the current industry standard technique, in terms of the percentage difference in total uncertainty calculated with the two considered approaches, for all the analyzed wind farms. We find a mean absolute percentage difference of about 6%, with the largest differences being greater than 20%. The data clearly confirm that ignoring the actual correlation between the uncertainty components can lead to large errors in the assessment of the operational AEP uncertainty, and the proposed Monte Carlo approach should be preferred.

Monte Carlo↗
DOE OSTI2026

Near-Real-Time Material Tracking: Combining Vis–NIR Spectroscopy with Flow Sensing for Accurate Nd(III) Quantification

A fiber-optic visible–near-infrared (vis–NIR) absorption spectroscopy and flow sensor system has been developed for near-real-time tracking of Nd mass in the effluent stream from a column in a fume hood. The approach leverages two unique data streams and a partial least-squares regression (PLSR) model trained on vis–NIR absorption spectra of Nd(III) (0–1.5 M) in 1 M HNO 3 . In-line volumetric flow rate and vis–NIR spectra are measured in sequence after a chromatography column. The time stamps from each data stream are then synchronized, which allows integrated volumes to be combined with Nd(III) molarities predicted by a PLSR model to accurately calculate the Nd mass flowing through the column. This integrated measurement provides instantaneous mass flow and accumulates these data over time to obtain the total mass processed. The methodology developed in this study contributes critical technical infrastructure to improve monitoring capabilities to support chemical separations and the production of strategic materials and isotopes.

Irvine, Sawyer B. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Automotive Intrusion Detection Through Multi-Modal Fusion: A CAN FD-LiDAR Approach

As vehicles become smarter and more autonomous, they increasingly depend on advanced sensors and communication technologies to operate securely. However, such growing dependence on technology—whether it’s CAN (Controller Area Network) for internal communication or LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) for sensing the world around them—also expands the attack surface for the types of cyber attacks. Traditional intrusion detection systems (IDS) typically monitor these systems in isolation, limiting their ability to detect sophisticated, crosssystem attacks. To address this, we propose a multi-modal fusion approach that combines real-world CAN FD signals (from the HCRL dataset) with LiDAR features (from the nuScenes dataset) to enhance attack detection. Our method employs a twostage ensemble approach. Calibrated XGBoost and LightGBM models initially process CAN FD (Fuzzing Data) and LiDAR data independently, detecting timing anomalies and space abnormalities. They are subsequently logarithmically combined with a logistic regression meta-model along with 17 engineered features capturing cross-modal behavior, prediction conflicts, and nonlinear interactions. This approach achieves an AUC of 0.87 and an F1-score of 0.82, surpassing single-modality baselines and early fusion methods, at merely 2 ms inference latency. Compared with deep learning competitors, it is 3 times more efficient, providing a lightweight, interpretable, and real time solution to automotive cybersecurity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Serum bile acid and unsaturated fatty acid profiles of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in type 2 diabetic patients

The understanding of bile acid (BA) and unsaturated fatty acid (UFA) profiles, as well as their dysregulation, remains elusive in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) coexisting with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Investigating these metabolites could offer valuable insights into the pathophy-siology of NAFLD in T2DM. Our aim is to identify potential metabolite biomarkers capable of distinguishing between NAFLD and T2DM. A training model was developed involving 399 participants, comprising 113 healthy controls (HCs), 134 individuals with T2DM without NAFLD, and 152 individuals with T2DM and NAFLD. External validation encompassed 172 participants. NAFLD patients were divided based on liver fibrosis scores. The analytical approach employed univariate testing, orthogonal partial least squares-discriminant analysis, logistic regression, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, and decision curve analysis to pinpoint and assess the diagnostic value of serum biomarkers. Compared to HCs, both T2DM and NAFLD groups exhibited diminished levels of specific BAs. In UFAs, particular acids exhibited a positive correlation with NAFLD risk in T2DM, while the ω-6:ω-3 UFA ratio demonstrated a negative correlation. Levels of α-linolenic acid and γ-linolenic acid were linked to significant liver fibrosis in NAFLD. The validation cohort substantiated the predictive efficacy of these biomarkers for assessing NAFLD risk in T2DM patients. This study underscores the connection between altered BA and UFA profiles and the presence of NAFLD in individuals with T2DM, proposing their potential as biomarkers in the pathogenesis of NAFLD.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multilevel-in-width training for deep neural network regression

A common challenge in regression is that for many problems, the degrees of freedom required for a high-quality solution also allows for overfitting. Regularization is a class of strategies that seek to restrict the range of possible solutions so as to discourage overfitting while still enabling good solutions, and different regularization strategies impose different types of restrictions. In this paper, we present a multilevel regularization strategy that constructs and trains a hierarchy of neural networks, each of which has layers that are wider versions of the previous network's layers. Here, we draw intuition and techniques from the field of Algebraic Multigrid (AMG), traditionally used for solving linear and nonlinear systems of equations, and specifically adapt the Full Approximation Scheme (FAS) for nonlinear systems of equations to the problem of deep learning. Training through V-cycles then encourage the neural networks to build a hierarchical understanding of the problem. We refer to this approach as multilevel-in-width to distinguish from prior multilevel works which hierarchically alter the depth of neural networks. The resulting approach is a highly flexible framework that can be applied to a variety of layer types, which we demonstrate with both fully connected and convolutional layers. We experimentally show with PDE regression problems that our multilevel training approach is an effective regularizer, improving the generalize performance of the neural networks studied.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian learning with Gaussian processes for low-dimensional representations of time-dependent nonlinear systems

This work presents a data-driven method for learning low-dimensional time-dependent physics-based surrogate models whose predictions are endowed with uncertainty estimates. We use the operator inference approach to model reduction that poses the problem of learning low-dimensional model terms as a regression of state space data and corresponding time derivatives by minimizing the residual of reduced system equations. Standard operator inference models perform well with accurate training data that are dense in time, but producing stable and accurate models when the state data are noisy and/or sparse in time remains a challenge. Another challenge is the lack of uncertainty estimation for the predictions from the operator inference models. Our approach addresses these challenges by incorporating Gaussian process surrogates into the operator inference framework to (1) probabilistically describe uncertainties in the state predictions and (2) procure analytical time derivative estimates with quantified uncertainties. The formulation leads to a generalized least-squares regression and, ultimately, reduced-order models that are described probabilistically with a closed-form expression for the posterior distribution of the operators. The resulting probabilistic surrogate model propagates uncertainties from the observed state data to reduced-order predictions. Furthermore, we demonstrate the method is effective for constructing low-dimensional models of two nonlinear partial differential equations representing a compressible flow and a nonlinear diffusion–reaction process, as well as for estimating the parameters of a low-dimensional system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations representing compartmental models in epidemiology.

Data-driven model reduction↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Tutorial on Bayesian analysis of linear shock compression data

Gas gun and other shock compression experiments often produce shock wave velocity measurements that are linearly associated with particle velocity. Traditionally, this empirical relationship is quantified with a single Hugoniot curve that is estimated using least squares regression. However, for downstream modeling and simulation tasks, it is often more useful to have multiple Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane that are consistent with the data. We employ Bayesian uncertainty quantification methods as a framework for propagating measurement uncertainty through to model parameters and predictions. Specifically, this Tutorial shows how to sample multiple Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane that are consistent with the shock wave-particle velocity measurements in a two-step Bayesian approach. First, we obtain an analytical expression for the posterior distribution of the linear model parameters using Bayesian linear regression. Second, we propagate samples from the posterior distribution through the Rankine–Hugoniot equations to yield Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane. The procedure is demonstrated with publicly available data on argon, copper, and nickel, and compared against bootstrapping and linear regression. The Bayesian procedure is shown to be interpretable, computationally inexpensive, and less sensitive than an alternative bootstrapping approach to the removal of the point in the copper dataset that has the largest particle velocity. As a Tutorial on Bayesian methodology for the shock compression community, we provide several derivations and explanations that make this paper self-contained, and make all code and data available at github.com/llnl/BALSCD.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Learning functional priors and posteriors from data and physics

In this work, we develop a new Bayesian framework based on deep neural networks to be able to extrapolate in space-time using historical data and to quantify uncertainties arising from both noisy and gappy data in physical problems. Specifically, the proposed approach has two stages: (1) prior learning and (2) posterior estimation. At the first stage, we employ the physics-informed Generative Adversarial Networks (PI-GAN) to learn a functional prior either from a prescribed function distribution, e.g., Gaussian process, or from historical data and physics. At the second stage, we employ the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method to estimate the posterior in the latent space of PI-GANs. In addition, we use two different approaches to encode the physics: (1) automatic differentiation, used in the physicsinformed neural networks (PINNs) for scenarios with explicitly known partial differential equations (PDEs), and (2) operator regression using the deep operator network (DeepONet) for PDE-agnostic scenarios. We then test the proposed method for (1) meta-learning for one-dimensional regression, and forward/inverse PDE problems (combined with PINNs); (2) PDE-agnostic physical problems (combined with DeepONet), e.g., fractional diffusion as well as saturated stochastic (100-dimensional) flows in heterogeneous porous media; and (3) spatial-temporal regression problems, i.e., inference of a marine riser displacement field using experimental data from the Norwegian Deepwater Programme (NDP). The results demonstrate that the proposed approach can provide accurate predictions as well as uncertainty quantification given very limited scattered and noisy data, since historical data could be available to provide informative priors. In summary, the proposed method is capable of learning flexible functional priors, e.g., both Gaussian and non-Gaussian process, and can be readily extended to big data problems by enabling mini-batch training using stochastic HMC or normalizing flows since the latent space is generally characterized as low dimensional.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rapid discovery of high hardness multi-principal-element alloys using a generative adversarial network model

Multi-principal element alloys (MPEAs) continue to gain research prominence due to their promising high-temperature microstructural and mechanical properties. Recently, machine learning (ML) and materials informatics have been used extensively for screening MPEAs, however, most of these efforts were focused on constructing classification and regression models for predicting phase stability and mechanical properties of known compositions. These approaches may accelerate the screening process but optimizing new compositions with desirable properties within a practical time frame from an infinitely large design space of MPEA systems remains a grand challenge. To tackle this composition optimization challenge, a generative adversarial network coupled with a neural-network ML model was utilized to design MPEAs by filtering compositions that have high hardness. Even in a high-dimensional space with 18 elements as descriptors, the ML model was able to generate optimized compositions from which one composition was found to have 10% higher hardness (941 HV) than the maximum in the training data (857 HV). Density-functional theory was used to provide thermodynamic and electronic insights to higher hardness of the new MPEA found. The present work can optimize compositions from a wide design space of 18 elements (including W, Ta and Nb) that presents an opportunity to synthesize new compositions for applications ranging from corrosion-resistant alloys to nuclear materials. Here the findings suggest that generative ML can greatly accelerate materials discovery by identifying novel compositions, which can serve as a data-informed tool to guide experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mitigating imaging systematics for DESI 2024 emission Line Galaxies and beyond

Emission Line Galaxies (ELGs) are one of the main tracers that the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) uses to probe the universe. However, they are afflicted by strong spurious correlations between target density and observing conditions known as imaging systematics. In this paper, we present the imaging systematics mitigation applied to the DESI Data Release 1 (DR1) large-scale structure catalogs used in the DESI 2024 cosmological analyses. We also explore extensions of the fiducial treatment. This includes a combined approach, through forward image simulations (Obiwan) in conjunction with neural network-based regression, to obtain an angular selection function that mitigates the imaging systematics observed in the DESI DR1 ELGs target density. We further derive a line of sight selection function from the forward model that removes the strong redshift dependence between imaging systematics and low redshift ELGs. Combining both angular and redshift-dependent systematics, we construct a three-dimensional selection function and assess the impact of all selection functions on clustering statistics. We quantify differences between these extended treatments and the fiducial treatment in terms of the measured 2-point statistics. We find that the results are generally consistent with the fiducial treatment and conclude that the differences are far less than the imaging systematics uncertainty included in DESI 2024 full-shape measurements. We extend our investigation to the ELGs at 0.6 < z < 0.8, i.e., beyond the redshift range (0.8 < z < 1.6) adopted for the DESI clustering catalog, and demonstrate that determining the full three-dimensional selection function is necessary in this redshift range. Our tests showed that all changes are consistent with statistical noise for BAO analyses indicating they are robust to even severe imaging systematics. Specific tests for the full-shape analysis will be presented in a companion paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗