Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Reliability Prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13

High-heat transfer lithium-ion batteries: A new era in battery thermal management

Despite advances in lithium-ion battery technology, critical challenges remain that must be addressed to accelerate electric vehicle (EV) adoption and global energy transformation. Significantly improved battery thermal management (BTM) is key to overcoming these challenges. BTM approaches focus on increasing heat transfer coefficients via air, liquid, or refrigerant cooling, but less attention is given to reducing the battery's thermal resistance, a major bottleneck for heat transfer. This work introduces a novel approach to reduce battery thermal resistance by integrating in-plane heat transfer with optimized cell geometry, minimized thermal resistances, and reduced interfacial resistances, representing a departure from previous methods. The standard prismatic can cell incorporating this technology is referred to as the high heat transfer (HHT) battery. An equivalent resistance battery thermal model is developed for speed and accuracy, validated against experimental data in the literature, demonstrating strong correlation and ensuring reliable predictions for real-world performance. Thermal performance metrics of the conventional and HHT batteries are compared using a parametric study with air, liquid, and refrigerant boundary conditions across a range of aspect ratios. The HHT battery shows a heat removal rate up to 20 times higher than a conventional battery. These findings suggest that HHT technology could be transformative for EV battery performance, enabling fast charging, mitigating thermal runaway, extending battery life, reducing cold-weather power loss, increasing reliability, lowering costs, and enabling higher energy density, all critical for EV adoption and energy transformation. Future work will focus on prototyping and real-world testing to refine these findings for commercial-scale applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Deep learning workflow for the inverse design of molecules with specific optoelectronic properties

The inverse design of novel molecules with a desirable optoelectronic property requires consideration of the vast chemical spaces associated with varying chemical composition and molecular size. First principles-based property predictions have become increasingly helpful for assisting the selection of promising candidate chemical species for subsequent experimental validation. However, a brute-force computational screening of the entire chemical space is decidedly impossible. To alleviate the computational burden and accelerate rational molecular design, we here present an iterative deep learning workflow that combines (i) the density-functional tight-binding method for dynamic generation of property training data, (ii) a graph convolutional neural network surrogate model for rapid and reliable predictions of chemical and physical properties, and (iii) a masked language model. As proof of principle, we employ our workflow in the iterative generation of novel molecules with a target energy gap between the highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO) and the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (LUMO).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Boundary-Layer Transition Prediction Through Loose Coupling of OVERFLOW and LASTRAC

Transition prediction based on linear stability theory is expected to more accurately reflect the causality of transition onset than phenomenological transition models based on RANS-like transport equations. To help achieve the CFD vision 2030 aim of building a CFD tool chain with automated prediction of boundary layer transition, a technique to loosely tie the NASA OVERFLOW CFD solver with the LASTRAC stability analysis tool is described. The coupled solver is then used to compute transition over selected over a flat plate in a freestream with sufficiently low levels of turbulence, NLF(1)-0416 airfoil, the 6:1 prolate spheroid at an angle of attack, and a NASA juncture flow model with symmetric wing configuration. The findings show that the loosely coupled approach can reliably predict the transition location accurately in scenarios that are dominated by a single transition mechanism involving Tollmien-Schlichting instabilities, crossflow instabilities, or separation bubble-induced transition, or include a mixture of selected mechanisms. The toolset presents here appears to be robust to the prescription of the initial transition location, and it can lead to a converged solution in four or five rounds of the mean flow calculation and stability analysis, with minimal input from the user.

boundary layer transition↗

Reactive Transport Modeling with Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Critical Minerals Applications

This study presents a physics-informed neural network (PINN) framework for reactive transport modeling for simulating fast bimolecular reactions in porous media. Accurate characterization of cAhemical interactions and product formation in surface and subsurface environments is essential for advancing critical mineral extraction and related geoscience applications. The proposed methodology sequentially addresses the flow and diffusion–reaction subproblems. The flow field is computed using a mixed formulation, while the diffusion–reaction system is modeled via two uncoupled tensorial diffusion equations reformulated in terms of chemical invariants. PINNs are employed to solve the governing equations, enabling data-efficient, mesh-free prediction of chemical concentration fields. The framework is validated through a series of benchmark problems involving flow in heterogeneous porous media. Initial verification is conducted using patch tests for the flow field, followed by validation of the transport problem with emphasis on preserving non-negativity of concentrations. The complete fast bimolecular reaction scenario is then solved, yielding spatial distributions of reactants and product species. Results demonstrate that the PINNs-based approach effectively captures sharp, mixing-limited reaction fronts and dispersive mixing behavior, offering reliable predictions of reactive plume evolution. These capabilities are crucial for evaluating long-term subsurface behavior in applications such as fluid storage, energy extraction, and efficient extraction of critical minerals.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A nudged hybrid analysis and modeling approach for realtime wake-vortex transport and decay prediction

Here, we put forth a long short-term memory (LSTM) nudging framework for the enhancement of reduced order models (ROMs) of fluid flows utilizing noisy measurements for air traffic improvements. Toward emerging applications of digital twins in aviation, the proposed approach allows for constructing a realtime predictive tool for wake-vortex transport and decay systems. We build on the fact that in realistic application, there are uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions, model parameters, as well as measurements. Moreover, conventional nonlinear ROMs based on Galerkin projection (GROMs) suffer from imperfection and solution instabilities, especially for advection-dominated flows with slow decay in the Kolmogorov n-width. In the presented LSTM nudging (LSTM-N) approach, we fuse forecasts from a combination of imperfect GROM and uncertain state estimates, with sparse Eulerian sensor measurements to provide more reliable predictions in a dynamical data assimilation framework. We illustrate our concept by solving the two-dimensional vorticity transport equation. We investigate the effects of measurements noise and state estimate uncertainty on the performance of the LSTM-N behavior. We also demonstrate that it can sufficiently handle different levels of temporal and spatial measurement sparsity, and offer a huge potential in developing next-generation digital twin technologies for aerospace applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Validation of IMEP on Alcator C-Mod and JET-ILW ELMy H-mode plasmas

Abstract The recently developed integrated model based on engineering parameters (IMEP) (Luda et al 2020 Nucl. Fusion 61 126048; Luda et al 2021 Nucl. Fusion 60 036023), so far validated on ASDEX Upgrade, has been tested on a database of 3 Alcator C-Mod and 55 JET-ILW ELMy (type I) H-mode stationary phases. The empirical pedestal transport model included in IMEP, consisting now of imposing a fixed value of R < ∇ T e > / T e , t o p = − 82.5 , allows an accurate prediction of the pedestal top temperature (when the pedestal top density is fixed to the experimental measurements) across these three machines with different sizes, when the pedestal is peeling–ballooning (PB) limited. Cases far from the ideal PB boundary, corresponding to high edge Spitzer resistivity, are instead strongly overpredicted by IMEP. A comparison between the predictions of Europed and IMEP for a subset of JET-ILW cases shows that IMEP can more accurately reproduce the experimental pedestal width. This allows IMEP to better capture profile effects on the pedestal stability, and therefore to correctly describe the negative effect of fueling on the pedestal pressure for PB limited cases. A strong correlation between the separatrix density and the fueling rate has been identified for a subset of JET-ILW cases, when taking into account different divertor configurations. Overall, these promising results encourage further developments of integrated models to obtain reliable predictions of pedestal and global confinement using only engineering parameters for present and future machines.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Data-driven Detection and Early Prediction of Thermoacoustic Instability in a Multi-nozzle Combustor

Thermoacoustic instability (TAI) is a critical issue in modern lean-burn gas-turbine combustors, which is induced by a strong coupling between the resonant combustor acoustics and fluctuations in the heat release rate. This instability may lead to high-amplitude pressure waves that generate undesirable noise levels as well as fatigue stresses in mechanical structures of the combustor. The intense pressure fluctuations due to TAI may also cause large flow perturbations and possibly flow reversal that may lead to flame oscillations, flame liftoff, and even flame blow-out. Hence, there is a strong need for exercising control actions in a timely fashion to mitigate the TAI phenomena. Anomaly detection is an essential prerequisite to the design of a good controller and such a detector must be able to reliably predict a forthcoming TAI. To detect and predict the onset of a TAI from an ensemble of pressure time series, this paper investigates three data-driven methods: Fast Fourier transform (FFT), symbolic time series analysis (STSA), and hidden Markov modeling (HMM). The main focus of the paper is to make a comparative evaluation of these three anomaly detection methods for classification of the current regime of operation into stable and unstable categories as well as for real-time identification of precursors to impending instabilities with short-length time series of measured variables (e.g., pressure oscillations). Finally, the results, generated on experimental data from a multi-nozzle combustor apparatus, have been compared to evaluate the performance of FFT, STSA, and HMM methods for TAI analysis.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comparison of simulated and experimentally measured detector impulse responses to pulsed x-rays

The Gamma Array Simulation Toolkit (GAST) is a multi-physics software stack comprised of Geant4, MATLAB, and experimentally measured photomultiplier tube (PMT) impulse response waveforms that is used to model and inform the end-toend performance of radiation detector systems. In order to validate the ability of GAST to predict the impulse response of a modeled detector configuration operated in current mode, experimental measurements using the Nevada National Security Site Transformational Diagnostics and Imaging 2 MeV endpoint energy electron linear accelerator (linac) with a tungsten target were performed. Seven different detector configurations consisting of unique combinations of scintillator material, size, reflectivity conditions, presence or absence of light guide, and PMT were evaluated. The resultant impulse response of each detector configuration was recorded and compared to a GAST simulation that emulated the respective linac experiment conditions. The comparison of the experimental and simulated detector impulse responses indicated that GAST can reliably predict detector impulse responses.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Comparison of Simulated and Experimentally Measured Detector Impulse Responses to Pulsed X-rays

The Gamma Array Simulation Toolkit (GAST) is a multi-physics software stack comprised of Geant4, MATLAB, and experimentally measured photomultiplier tube (PMT) impulse response waveforms that is used to model and inform the end-to-end performance of radiation detector systems. In order to validate the ability of GAST to predict the impulse response of a modeled detector configuration operated in current mode, experimental measurements using the Nevada National Security Site Transformational Diagnostics and Imaging 2 MeV endpoint energy electron linear accelerator (linac) with a tungsten target were performed. Seven different detector configurations consisting of unique combinations of scintillator material, size, reflectivity conditions, presence or absence of light guide, and PMT were evaluated. The resultant impulse response of each detector configuration was recorded and compared to a GAST simulation that emulated the respective linac experiment conditions. The comparison of the experimental and simulated detector impulse responses indicated that GAST can reliably predict detector impulse responses.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

3D Hydrodynamics of Pre-supernova Outbursts in Convective Red Supergiant Envelopes

Eruptive mass loss likely produces the energetic outbursts observed from some massive stars before they become core-collapse supernovae (SNe). The resulting dense circumstellar medium may also cause the subsequent SNe to be observed as Type IIn events. The leading hypothesis of the cause of these outbursts is the response of the envelope of the red supergiant (RSG) progenitor to energy deposition in the months to years prior to collapse. Early theoretical studies of this phenomenon were limited to 1D, leaving the 3D convective RSG structure unaddressed. Using FLASH's hydrodynamic capabilities, we explore the 3D outcomes by constructing convective RSG envelope models and depositing energies less than the envelope binding energies on timescales shorter than the envelope dynamical time deep within them. We confirm the 1D prediction of an outward-moving acoustic pulse steepening into a shock, unbinding the outermost parts of the envelope. However, we find that the initial 2–4 km s -1 convective motions seed the intrinsic convective instability associated with the high-entropy material deep in the envelope, enabling gas from deep within the envelope to escape and increasing the amount of ejected mass compared to an initially "quiescent" envelope. The 3D models reveal a rich density structure, with column densities varying by ≈10× along different lines of sight. Our work highlights that the 3D convective nature of RSG envelopes impacts our ability to reliably predict the outburst dynamics, the amount, and the spatial distribution of the ejected mass associated with deep energy deposition.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mechanism Across Scales: A Holistic Modeling Framework Integrating Laboratory and Field Studies for Microbial Ecology

Over the last century, leaps in technology for imaging, sampling, detection, high-throughput sequencing, and -omics analyses have revolutionized microbial ecology to enable rapid acquisition of extensive datasets for microbial communities across the ever-increasing temporal and spatial scales. The present challenge is capitalizing on our enhanced abilities of observation and integrating diverse data types from different scales, resolutions, and disciplines to reach a causal and mechanistic understanding of how microbial communities transform and respond to perturbations in the environment. This type of causal and mechanistic understanding will make predictions of microbial community behavior more robust and actionable in addressing microbially mediated global problems. To discern drivers of microbial community assembly and function, we recognize the need for a conceptual, quantitative framework that connects measurements of genomic potential, the environment, and ecological and physical forces to rates of microbial growth at specific locations. We describe the Framework for Integrated, Conceptual, and Systematic Microbial Ecology (FICSME), an experimental design framework for conducting process-focused microbial ecology studies that incorporates biological, chemical, and physical drivers of a microbial system into a conceptual model. Through iterative cycles that advance our understanding of the coupling across scales and processes, we can reliably predict how perturbations to microbial systems impact ecosystem-scale processes or vice versa. We describe an approach and potential applications for using the FICSME to elucidate the mechanisms of globally important ecological and physical processes, toward attaining the goal of predicting the structure and function of microbial communities in chemically complex natural environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Global Evolution of Solar Magnetic Fields and Prediction of Solar Activity Cycles

Prediction of solar activity cycles is challenging because the physical processes inside the Sun involve a broad range of multiscale dynamics that no model can reproduce, and the available observations are highly limited and cover mostly surface layers. Helioseismology makes it possible to probe solar dynamics in the convective zone, but variations in the differential rotation and meridional circulation are currently available for only two solar activity cycles. It has been demonstrated that sunspot observations, which cover over 400 years, can be used to calibrate the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmaikin model and that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method can be used to link the model magnetic fields to sunspot observations to make reliable predictions of a following cycle. However, for more accurate predictions, it is necessary to use actual observations of the solar magnetic fields, which are available for only four solar cycles. This raises the question of how limitations in observational data and model uncertainties affect predictive capabilities and implies the need for the development of new forecast methodologies and validation criteria. In this presentation, I will discuss the influence of the limited number of available observations on the accuracy of EnKF estimates of solar cycle parameters.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗

Component testing for dynamic model verification

Dynamic model verification is the process whereby an analytical model of a dynamic system is compared with experimental data, adjusted if necessary to bring it into agreement with the data, and then qualified for future use in predicting system response in a different dynamic environment. These are various ways to conduct model verification. The approach taken here employs Bayesian statistical parameter estimation. Unlike curve fitting, whose objective is to minimize the difference between some analytical function and a given quantity of test data (or curve), Bayesian estimation attempts also to minimize the difference between the parameter values of that funciton (the model) and their initial estimates, in a least squares sense. The objectives of dynamic model verification, therefore, are to produce a model which: (1) is in agreement with test data; (2) will assist in the interpretation of test data; (3) can be used to help verify a design; (4) will reliably predict performance; and (5) in the case of space structures, will facilitate dynamic control.

Hasselman, T. K.↗

A computer program for model verification of dynamic systems

Dynamic model verification is the process whereby an analytical model of a dynamic system is compared with experimental data, and then qualified for future use in predicting system response in a different dynamic environment. There are various ways to conduct model verification. The approach adopted in MOVER II employs Bayesian statistical parameter estimation. Unlike curve fitting whose objective is to minimize the difference between some analytical function and a given quantity of test data (or curve), Bayesian estimation attempts also to minimize the difference between the parameter values of that function (the model) and their initial estimates, in a least squares sense. The objectives of dynamic model verification, therefore, are to produce a model which: (1) is in agreement with test data, (2) will assist in the interpretation of test data, (3) can be used to help verify a design, (4) will reliably predict performance, and (5) in the case of space structures, facilitate dynamic control.

Chrostowski, J. D.↗

On Noise Assessment for Blended Wing Body Aircraft

A system noise study is presented for the blended-wing-body (BWB) aircraft configured with advanced technologies that are projected to be available in the 2025 timeframe of the NASA N+2 definition. This system noise assessment shows that the noise levels of the baseline configuration, measured by the cumulative Effective Perceived Noise Level (EPNL), have a large margin of 34 dB to the aircraft noise regulation of Stage 4. This confirms the acoustic benefits of the BWB shielding of engine noise, as well as other projected noise reduction technologies, but the noise margins are less than previously published assessments and are short of meeting the NASA N+2 noise goal. In establishing the relevance of the acoustic assessment framework, the design of the BWB configuration, the technical approach of the noise analysis, the databases and prediction tools used in the assessment are first described and discussed. The predicted noise levels and the component decomposition are then analyzed to identify the ranking order of importance of various noise components, revealing the prominence of airframe noise, which holds up the levels at all three noise certification locations and renders engine noise reduction technologies less effective. When projected airframe component noise reduction is added to the HWB configuration, it is shown that the cumulative noise margin to Stage 4 can reach 41.6 dB, nearly at the NASA goal. These results are compared with a previous NASA assessment with a different study framework. The approaches that yield projections of such low noise levels are discussed including aggressive assumptions on future technologies, assumptions on flight profile management, engine installation, and component noise reduction technologies. It is shown that reliable predictions of component noise also play an important role in the system noise assessment. The comparisons and discussions illustrate the importance of practical feasibilities and constraints in aircraft system noise studies, which include aerodynamic performance, propulsion efficiency, flight profile limitation and many other factors. For a future aircraft concept to achieve the NASA N+2 noise goal it will require a range of fully successful noise reduction technology developments.

Guo, Yueping↗

Prediction of hydration energies of adsorbates at Pt(111) and liquid water interfaces using machine learning

Aqueous phase heterogeneous catalysis is important to various industrial processes, including biomass conversion, Fischer–Tropsch synthesis, and electrocatalysis. Accurate calculation of solvation thermodynamic properties is essential for modeling the performance of catalysts for these processes. Explicit solvation methods employing multiscale modeling, e.g., involving density functional theory and molecular dynamics have emerged for this purpose. Although accurate, these methods are computationally intensive. This study introduces machine learning (ML) models to predict solvation thermodynamics for adsorbates on a Pt(111) surface, aiming to enhance computational efficiency without compromising accuracy. In particular, ML models are developed using a combination of molecular descriptors and fingerprints and trained on previously published water–adsorbate interaction energies, energies of solvation, and free energies of solvation of adsorbates bound to Pt(111). These models achieve root mean square error values of 0.09 eV for interaction energies, 0.04 eV for energies of solvation, and 0.06 eV for free energies of solvation, demonstrating accuracy within the standard error of multiscale modeling. Feature importance analysis reveals that hydrogen bonding, van der Waals interactions, and solvent density, together with the properties of the adsorbate, are critical factors influencing solvation thermodynamics. Furthermore, these findings suggest that ML models can provide rapid and reliable predictions of solvation properties. This approach not only reduces computational costs but also offers insights into the solvation characteristics of adsorbates at Pt(111)–water interfaces.

Adsorption↗

Leveraging hyperspectral phenotyping for accurate, non-destructive prediction of metabolite profiles in poplar under drought stress

Accurately predicting drought tolerance in woody perennial bioenergy crops is critical for sustainable biomass production under fluctuating precipitation. Hyperspectral imaging (HSI) in the visible-near-infrared (VNIR) and shortwave-infrared (SWIR) ranges offers a promising approach for predicting plant biochemical traits, yet its application in metabolite profiling remains underexplored. We integrated VNIR+SWIR HSI with untargeted metabolomics to investigate drought-induced metabolic shifts in Populus leaves from eight Populus genotypes. Metabolite profiling identified 127 compounds, with 73 showing significant drought responses spanning amino acids (AA), carbohydrates (CHO), phenolic glycosides (PG), organic acids (OA), fatty acids and alcohols (FA), terpenes (T), phenolic metabolites (P), and unclassified metabolites. Spectral analysis revealed consistently higher reflectance across VNIR and SWIR wavelengths in drought-stressed plants, corresponding with increased accumulation of AA and reduced CHO and PG levels. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression modeling identified robust spectral predictors of metabolite concentrations, associating VNIR wavelengths (500–700 nm) predominantly with AA and P, whereas SWIR wavelengths (1680–1700 nm) reliably predicted CHO, OA, and T. Several stable spectral-metabolite associations persisted across the two watering regimes (drought vs. well-watered), highlighting their potential as spectral biomarkers for non-destructive stress monitoring. Minimal genotype-specific variation suggests that observed spectral and metabolic responses were driven primarily by environmental factors, likely reflecting limited genetic diversity among the commercial Populus genotypes examined. This work establishes VNIR+SWIR hyperspectral imaging as a powerful, non-destructive phenotyping tool for precision monitoring and targeted improvement of drought resilience in bioenergy crops.

Biochemical trait prediction↗

Application of machine learning to characterize gas hydrate reservoirs in Mackenzie Delta (Canada) and on the Alaska north slope (USA)

Here, artificial neural network-trained models were used to predict gas hydrate saturation distributions in permafrost-associated deposits in the Eileen Gas Hydrate Trend on the Alaska North Slope (ANS), USA and at the Mallik research site in the Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin, Northwest Territories, Canada. The database of Logging-While-Drilling (LWD) and wireline logs collected at five wells (Mount Elbert, Ignik Sikumi, and Kuparuk 7–11–12 wells at ANS, plus 2L-38 and 5L-38 wells at the Mallik research site) includes more than 10,000 depth points, which were used for training, validation, and testing the machine learning (ML) models. Data used in training the ML models include the well logs of density, porosity, electrical resistivity, gamma radiation, and acoustic wave velocity measurements. Combinations of two or three out of these five well logs were found to reliably predict the gas hydrate saturation with accuracy varying between 80 and 90% when compared to the gas hydrate saturations derived from Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR)-based technique. The ML models trained on data from three ANS wells achieved high fidelity predictions of gas hydrate saturation at the Mallik site. The results obtained in this study indicate that ML models trained on data from one geological basin can successfully predict key reservoir parameters for permafrost-associated gas hydrate accumulations within another basin. A generalized approach for selecting a well log combination that can improve model accuracy is discussed. Overall, the study outcome supports earlier work demonstrating that ML models trained on non-NMR well logs are a viable alternative to physics-driven methods for predicting gas hydrate saturations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗