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Results for “Resilience Modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Resilient U.S. Land Ports of Entry

The continued operation of Land Ports of Entry (LPOE), managed by the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and General Services Administration% is vital to the U.S. economy and security. Border faculties are included in the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Government Facilities Sector2, one of the 16 critical infrastructures "whose assets, systems, and networks, whether physical or virtual, are considered so vital to the United States that their incapacitation or destruction would have a debilitating effect on security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination thereof.'" Specifically, disruptions to the flow of border crossing traffic, in the form of closures or increased border crossing wait times, impact the economy and security of all countries involved. This paper describes a process for analyzing and improving the resilience of U.S. Land Ports of Entry. For LPOE, the team believes that energy resilience is the primary objective due to the complete reliance on the e-manifest system and the increasing use of Multi-Energy Portals (MEPs). Emanifests are part of CPB's Automated Commercial Environment (ACE). They document several key pieces of information about cargo vehicles wishing to cross the border into the United States and are submitted before arriving at the port. Vehicles can be flagged for more invasive inspection based on the content of the e-manifest. MEPs are a non-intrusive inspection (NII) technology used to scan the contents of the cargo. Together MEPs and ACE serve an important role in aiding CBP with their mission to protect "the public from dangerous people and materials", and "enabling legitimate trade and travel.'" To analyze resilience of a port, the team would need to understand the port's current energy usage, which systems depend on energy and what backup systems exist, and any emergency operation plans that dictate how systems are operated in the event of a power outage. The team would also need to determine the design basis threats (DBTs) for the LPOE which could include natural disasters, manmade events, and accidents. The magnitudes of the DBTs are calculated and are then translated to expected impacts on the infrastructure and systems at the port. With this information gathered, existing LPOE models developed here at Sandia National Laboratories could be extended to support decisions about resilience. Current models are implemented in FlexSim, a 3rd party discrete event simulator. FlexSim provides 3-D visuals of physical layout that can reveal valuable insights, allows input to be variable (e.g. time it takes to interact with the CBP officer at primary inspection can vary) so that a whole range of possibilities can be captured in the results, and can be used to collect user-defined output metrics. Current LPOE models focus on cargo vehicle traffic, and process changes caused by the installation of new drive-through MEPs. Extending them to address resilience questions would require the addition of key pieces of information learned during the resilience analysis including critical systems, failure rates, and process changes for when failures occur. The primary output metric for current models is border crossing wait time. Additional metrics would also be added to the model to gain a more complete understanding of impacts related to resilience, for example, MEP scan rate. Once complete, the model could be used to analyze the effectiveness of mitigation strategies representing some future state.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reinforcement Learning to Enhance Optimal Operation of Resilient Community Energy Systems

This paper presents a novel model-free multi-agent Reinforcement Learning (RL) control method to enhance the resilience of community energy systems in island mode, which coordinates multiple objectives without the necessity of identifying system models that require expert knowledge. Specifically, a community-level coordinator agent is designed to allocate renewable energy resources among different buildings, and multiple building-level agents are developed to optimize load schedules based on limited energy resources and requirements of building loads and occupants’ comfort. In a two-day evaluation, our RL approach demonstrated a similar performance against MPC without requiring system models and formulation of optimization problems as required in MPC.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Colorado Residential Resiliency and Managed Charging

Validate and model impacts of electric vehicle (EV) home charging on service transformers; analyze diverse grid locations and configurations to determine 'risk factors'; finalize/deliver new design tools and typical EV load curves; improve/issue new construction standards for transformers, secondaries, and services. To ensure residential charging equity, smart charge management strategies will be studied and analyzed with the goal of creating affordable demand charges for customers.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

DeepFreeze: Towards Scalable Asynchronous Checkpointing of Deep Learning Models

In the age of big data, deep learning has emerged as a powerful tool to extract insight and exploit its value, both in industry and scientific applications. One common pattern emerging in such applications is frequent checkpointing of the state of the learning model during training, needed in a variety of scenarios: analysis of intermediate states to explain features and correlations with training data, exploration strategies involving alternative models that share a common ancestor, knowledge transfer, resilience, etc. However, with increasing size of the learning models and popularity of distributed data-parallel training approaches, simple checkpointing techniques used so far face several limitations: low serialization performance, blocking I/O, stragglers due to the fact that only a single process is involved in checkpointing. This paper proposes a checkpointing technique specifically designed to address the aforementioned limitations, introducing efficient asynchronous techniques to hide the overhead of serialization and I/O, and distribute the load over all participating processes. Experiments with two deep learning applications (CANDLE and ResNet) on a pre-Exascale HPC platform (Theta) shows significant improvement over state-of-art, both in terms of checkpointing duration and runtime overhead.

checkpointing↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Technical Resilience Navigator: Risk-Informed Decision Making to Support Resilience Planning

The Technical Resilience Navigator (TRN) helps organizations manage the risk to critical functions at a site from disruptions in energy and water services. Developed in partnership by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, under direction and funding from the Department of Energy’s Federal Energy Management Program, the TRN helps organizations enhance their resilience to a variety of disruptive events, both natural and human-caused, that could interrupt normal operations for an unknown period of time. This report provides an overview of the TRN’s risk-informed approach to resilience planning and formally describes how it uses a streamlined risk model to identify effective strategies for improving resilience.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

HAPPA: A Modular Platform for HPC Application Resilience Analysis with LLMs Embedded

High-performance computing (HPC) systems are increasingly vulnerable to soft errors, which pose significant challenges in maintaining computational accuracy and reliability. Predicting the resilience of HPC applications to these errors is crucial for robust code protection and detailed resilience analysis. In this study, we present HAppA, a modular platform designed for HPC Application Resilience Analysis. Embedding Large Language Models (LLMs), HAppA addresses understanding the context information of long code sequences typical in HPC applications. HAppA implements a novel code representation module that chunks the code into fixed-size segments and aggregates the embeddings of these segments. Three aggregation methods have been explored: MeanPooling, MaxPooling, and LSTM-based techniques. We built a DAtaset for REsilience analysis using Fault Injection (FI), named DARE. Using our DARE dataset, HAppA is trained for regression prediction tasks. Our evaluation results demonstrate the predictive accuracy of HAppA compared to other models, particularly noting that the LSTM-based aggregation method -- HAppA-LSTM -- achieves a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.078 for SDC prediction, surpassing the existing state-of-the-art PARIS model, which recorded an MSE of 0.1172. Additionally, HAppA with the KeyBERT model extracts a list of keywords representing the source code. A comprehensive importance analysis of these keywords further elucidates the code patterns contributing to the error rate. These findings highlight the effectiveness of HAppA in analyzing the resilience of HPC applications and establish a new benchmark for predictive accuracy in resilience.

Jiang, Hailong [Kent State University]↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-scenario Extreme Weather Simulator application to heat waves: Ko’olauloa community resilience hub

Heat waves are increasing in severity, duration, and frequency. The Multi-Scenario Extreme Weather Simulator (MEWS) models this using historical data, climate model outputs, and heat wave multipliers. In this study, MEWS is applied for planning of a community resilience hub in Hau'ula, Hawaii. The hub will have normal operations and resilience operations modes. Both these modes were modeled using EnergyPlus. The resilience operations mode includes cutting off air conditioning for many spaces to decrease power requirements during emergencies. Results were simulated for 300 future weather files generated by MEWS for 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080. Shared socioeconomic pathways 2-4.5, 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 were used. The resilience operations mode results show two to six times increase of hours of exceedance beyond 32.2 °C from present conditions, depending on climate scenario and future year. The resulting decrease in thermal resilience enables an average decrease of energy use intensity of 26% with little sensitivity to climate change. The decreased thermal resilience predicted in the future is undesirable, but was not severe enough to require a more energy-intensive resilience mode. Instead, planning is needed to assure vulnerable individuals are given prioritized access to air-conditioned parts of the hub if worst-case heat waves occur.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing power grid resilience to winter storms via generator winterization with equity considerations

Here we develop two-stage stochastic programming models for generator winterization that enhance power grid resilience while incorporating social equity. The first stage in our models captures the investment decisions for generator winterization, and the second stage captures the operation of a degraded power grid, with the objective of minimizing load shed and social inequity. To incorporate equity into our models, we propose a concept called adverse effect probability that captures the disproportionate effects of power outages on communities with varying vulnerability levels. Grid operations are modeled using DC power flow, and equity is captured through mean or maximum adverse effects experienced by communities. We apply our models to a synthetic Texas power grid, using winter storm scenarios created from the generator outage data from the 2021 Texas winter storm. Our extensive numerical experiments show that more equitable outcomes, in the sense of reducing adverse effects experienced by vulnerable communities during power outages, are achievable with no impact on total load shed through investing in winterization of generators in different locations and capacities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Valuing Demand Flexibility During a Grid Disturbance: A Granular Approach to Resilience Valuation

As research continues to investigate how demand flexibility can aid in power system resilience so does the need for an approach to determine the value of resilience. This work utilizes visual modeling principles to model the value exchanges that take place within the system. These models can be used in analysis design as the foundation of a valuation analysis for each participant in the system. Utilizing a consistent approach for valuation will allow for different approaches in improving system resilience to be compared against each other in terms of economic outcomes of participants.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neural simulation-based inference approach for characterizing the Galactic Center γ-ray excess

The nature of the Fermi γ-ray Galactic Center Excess (GCE) has remained a persistent mystery for over a decade. Although the excess is broadly compatible with emission expected due to dark matter annihilation, an explanation in terms of a population of unresolved astrophysical point sources e.g., millisecond pulsars, remains viable. The effort to uncover the origin of the GCE is hampered in particular by an incomplete understanding of diffuse emission of Galactic origin. This can lead to spurious features that make it difficult to robustly differentiate smooth emission, as expected for a dark matter origin, from more “clumpy” emission expected from a population of relatively bright, unresolved point sources. Here, we use recent advancements in the field of simulation-based inference, in particular density estimation techniques using normalizing flows, in order to characterize the contribution of modeled components, including unresolved point source populations, to the GCE. Compared to traditional techniques based on the statistical distribution of photon counts, our machine learning-based method is able to utilize more of the information contained in a given model of the Galactic Center emission, and in particular can perform posterior parameter estimation while accounting for pixel-to-pixel spatial correlations in the γ-ray map. This makes the method demonstrably more resilient to certain forms of model misspecification. On application to Fermi data, the method generically attributes a smaller fraction of the GCE flux to unresolved point sources when compared to traditional approaches. We nevertheless infer such a contribution to make up a non-negligible fraction of the GCE across all analysis variations considered, with at least $38^{+9}_{-19}$% of the excess attributed to unresolved point sources in our baseline analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Comparison of PV Resource Modeling for Sizing Microgrid Components

Microgrid systems are being deployed with increased frequency to meet critical building loads during unplanned power outages. Determining the appropriate type and size of components that make up a microgrid can greatly affect its ability to meet this need. This paper presents a new tool to appropriately size PV, battery, and generator capacities to meet all site loads, given a resilience goal. It uses a statistical model to simulate microgrid behavior under a large range of solar resource conditions, providing resilience planners with confidence that critical loads will be met even under extreme weather conditions. We compare this model with one that uses typical weather data for sizing microgrids, and quantify the resilience effects of using these different methods. Our method produces more conservative generator capacities and fuel requirements in an outage, predicting up to 30% more fuel required in the most extreme case. Microgrid systems that are designed using more conservative estimates are more likely to continue to serve load during emergency outages under a large range of conditions.

Newman, Sarah F.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A multi-algorithm approach for modeling coastal wetland eco-geomorphology

Coastal wetlands play an important role in the global water and biogeochemical cycles. Climate change makes it more difficult for these ecosystems to adapt to the fluctuation in sea levels and other environmental changes. Given the importance of eco-geomorphological processes for coastal wetland resilience, many eco-geomorphology models differing in complexity and numerical schemes have been developed in recent decades. However, their divergent estimates of the response of coastal wetlands to climate change indicate that substantial structural uncertainties exist in these models. To investigate the structural uncertainty of coastal wetland eco-geomorphology models, we developed a multi-algorithm model framework of eco-geomorphological processes, such as mineral accretion and organic matter accretion, within a single hydrodynamics model. The framework is designed to explore possible ways to represent coastal wetland eco-geomorphology in Earth system models and reduce the related uncertainties in global applications. We tested this model framework at three representative coastal wetland sites: two saltmarsh wetlands (Venice Lagoon and Plum Island Estuary) and a mangrove wetland (Hunter Estuary). Through the model–data comparison, we showed the importance of using a multi-algorithm ensemble approach for more robust predictions of the evolution of coastal wetlands. We also found that more observations of mineral and organic matter accretion at different elevations of coastal wetlands and evaluation of the coastal wetland models at different sites in diverse environments can help reduce the model uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Functional All-Hazard Approach to Critical Infrastructure Dependency Analysis

The critical infrastructures protection landscape is a vast and varied pattern of independent, but interconnected infrastructure systems that are essential to the function of our modern society. The U.S. policy on critical infrastructure protection has been continually evolving since the “President’s Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection” was published in 1997. In response to these policies, federal, state, and local governments, along with research institutions, have invested a substantial amount of time and effort into identifying and analyzing critical infrastructure, their functions, and dependencies/interdependencies to better understand their vulnerabilities. To date, the ability to assess vulnerabilities, resiliency, and priorities for protecting interdependent critical infrastructure systems from an all-hazards perspective remains a difficult problem. In this paper we introduce the All-Hazards Analysis (AHA) methodology, which provides an integrated functional basis across infrastructure systems, through the implementation of a common language and a scalable level of decomposition to effectively evaluate the resilience of interconnected infrastructure systems. AHA models infrastructure systems as directed multidimensional graphs, which enable the evaluation of cross-sector interdependencies prior to, during, and after disruptive events. Finally, and by design, AHA enables the cross linking of data taxonomies to enable more effective data sharing, such as the National Critical Functions (NCF) and Infrastructure Data Taxonomy (IDT).

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Open-Source Virtual Testbed for a Real Net-Zero Energy Community

Net zero energy communities (NZECs) are critical to ensure sustainability and resilience of modernized power systems. System modeling helps overcome technical challenges in designing and operating NZECs. In this paper, we present the modeling work based on a real NZEC. Two sets of models are developed: higher-fidelity physics-based models considering the interaction between subsystems of the studied NZEC and capturing fast-dynamics; and lower-fidelity data-driven models requiring less resource to establish and/or run. All models are validated against measurements from this real NZEC. In addition, we create a simulation framework which streamlines the processes for simulation and thus allows using developed models to form a virtual testbed. To demonstrate the usage of the virtual testbed, a case study is conducted where a building-to-grid integration control is evaluated via simulation. The evaluation results suggest that the tested control significantly smooths the power draw of the studied community and doesn’t sacrifice the thermal comfort to a great extent.

Huang, Sen↗
DOE OSTI2023

Resilience Analytics for Interdependent Power and Water Distribution Systems

The occurrence of large-scale outages in power distribution systems (PDSs) caused, for instance, by extreme weather events has raised concerns on the cascading impact of the power outages on the resilience of other critical infrastructures, including water distribution systems (WDSs), whose healthy operation highly relies on the availability of power from PDSs. Here, this paper proposes an analytics model for quantifying the interdependence between the resilience of power and water distribution systems. The proposed model first performs spatio-temporal outage analysis on the PDS and WDS to determine the PDS power serving capability and the resulting cascading impact on the WDS water serving capability during the occurrence of disruptions. The resilience interdependence is then determined by a proposed set of six metrics calculated using the power and water serving capability profiles, which trace and quantify the cascading impacts of power outages in the operation of WDSs during the degradation and recovery stages. The proposed analytics model is implemented on the IEEE 33-bus power distribution system supplying power for pumping stations of a 15-node test WDS, considering multiple cases of water storage capacity, single and multiple outage scenarios, and availability of distributed generation. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed metrics track the temporal and spatial interdependence between the resilience of power and water distribution systems, providing a mechanism to identify weak spots, and assess options to enhance the resilience of the critical water infrastructure.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗