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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Soil aminopeptidase induction is unaffected by inorganic nitrogen availability

Soil microbes release a variety of aminopeptidase enzymes to degrade proteins into their constituent amino acid monomers, thereby increasing amino acid availability in the near-cell environment. In this work we investigated how inorganic N availability controls the substrate induction response of aminopeptidase enzymes by conducting protein amendment experiments via gelatin addition to fertilized and unfertilized soil from a long-term N addition study. Protein addition triggered a measurable increase in enzyme activity, which we interpreted as an induction response, in all five of the aminopeptidase enzymes we investigated. The magnitude of these induction responses did not differ by fertilization regime even when unamended aminopeptidase activity differed between long-term fertilization treatments. Though soil microbes are thought to release aminopeptidase enzymes as a means of cellular N acquisition at steady-state concentrations, our results suggest that they use the same enzymes to access protein-derived C as an energetic resource at non-steady-state conditions, such as those triggered by the substrate induction response. The substrate induction response of aminopeptidase enzymes is therefore best viewed as a means of microbial competition for the substantial energetic resources available in protein subsidies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Earth BioGenome Project: Sequencing life for the future of life

Increasing our understanding of Earth’s biodiversity and responsibly stewarding its resources are among the most crucial scientific and social challenges of the new millennium. These challenges require fundamental new knowledge of the organization, evolution, functions, and interactions among millions of the planet’s organisms. Herein, we present a perspective on the Earth BioGenome Project (EBP), a moonshot for biology that aims to sequence, catalog, and characterize the genomes of all of Earth’s eukaryotic biodiversity over a period of 10 years. The outcomes of the EBP will inform a broad range of major issues facing humanity, such as the impact of climate change on biodiversity, the conservation of endangered species and ecosystems, and the preservation and enhancement of ecosystem services. We describe hurdles that the project faces, including data-sharing policies that ensure a permanent, freely available resource for future scientific discovery while respecting access and benefit sharing guidelines of the Nagoya Protocol. Here, we describe scientific and organizational challenges in executing such an ambitious project, and the structure proposed to achieve the project’s goals. The far-reaching potential benefits of creating an open digital repository of genomic information for life on Earth can be realized only by a coordinated international effort.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

USD Catalysis Group for Alternative Energy (Final Report)

Project Summary Catalytic processes are a major technological underpinning of modern society, and are essential to the energy sector in the processing of chemical fuels from natural resources, fine chemicals synthesis, and energy conversion. Advances in catalyst technology are enormously valuable since these lead to reduced chemical waste, reduced energy loss, and reduced costs. New energy technologies, which are critical to future economic growth, are also heavily reliant on catalysts, including fuel cells and photo-electrochemical cells. Currently, the state of South Dakota is underdeveloped in terms of research infrastructure related to catalysis. If South Dakota intends to participate in significant economic growth opportunities that result from advances in catalyst technology, then this area of research needs to be made a high priority for investment. To this end, a focused research effort is proposed in which investigators from The University of South Dakota (USD) and The South Dakota School of Mines and Technology (SDSMT) will contribute to form the South Dakota Catalysis Group (SDCG). The multidisciplinary team of the (SDCG) include: (USD) Dan Engebretson, James Hoefelmeyer, Ranjit Koodali, and Grigoriy Sereda; (SDSMT) Phil Scott Ahrenkiel, Hao Fong, Jan Puszynski, Rajesh Shende, and Jacek Swiatkiewicz. The group is well suited to engage in a collaborative project due to the resources available within the existing programs. Activities within the SDCG will be monitored through an external committee consisting of three distinguished professors in chemistry. The committee will provide expert advice and recommendations to the SDCG. Advisory meetings in which committee members interact with South Dakota investigators will be accompanied by individual oral and poster presentations in a materials and catalysis symposium. The symposium will attract prominent scientists, and will enhance the visibility of research in the state of South Dakota. The SDCG requests funding through the Department of Energy (DoE) to establish this multidisciplinary research cluster in the area of catalysis. This long-term approach includes synthesis, characterization, catalyst evaluation, modeling, and scale-up. The project includes plans to acquire instrumentation critical to enabling competitive research. These acquisitions will complement existing resources in the state. The effect of implementation of the proposed efforts will be to significantly enhance state infrastructure in personnel and equipment, and lead to a nationally and internationally recognized research center.

Hoefelmeyer, James↗
DOE OSTI2016

Interactive Correlation Analysis and Visualization of Climate Data

The relationship between our ability to analyze and extract insights from visualization of climate model output and the capability of the available resources to make those visualizations has reached a crisis point. The large volume of data currently produced by climate models is overwhelming the current, decades-old visualization workflow. The traditional methods for visualizing climate output also have not kept pace with changes in the types of grids used, the number of variables involved, and the number of different simulations performed with a climate model or the feature-richness of high-resolution simulations. This project has developed new and faster methods for visualization in order to get the most knowledge out of the new generation of high-resolution climate models. While traditional climate images will continue to be useful, there is need for new approaches to visualization and analysis of climate data if we are to gain all the insights available in ultra-large data sets produced by high-resolution model output and ensemble integrations of climate models such as those produced for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Towards that end, we have developed new visualization techniques for performing correlation analysis. We have also introduced highly scalable, parallel rendering methods for visualizing large-scale 3D data. This project was done jointly with climate scientists and visualization researchers at Argonne National Laboratory and NCAR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Practices for Demonstrating Energy Savings from Commercial PACE Projects

Nearly three-fourths of U.S. states have authorized local governments to use voluntary special assessments on commercial properties to finance energy improvements that boost economic development, create jobs, increase property values and advance energy goals. Commercial Property Assessed Clean Energy (C-PACE) financing allows building owners to repay the borrowed capital — from private or public sources — over time using their property as security. Berkeley Lab is supporting the Department of Energy’s Commercial PACE Working Group by developing a series of C-PACE issue briefs. The second brief in this series, Practices for Demonstrating Energy Savings from Commercial PACE Projects, looks at common practices for demonstrating energy savings to support state and local governments that sponsor C-PACE programs and want to track their energy impacts. This brief reviews: -The value proposition and trade-offs of conducting energy impact assessments for C-PACE programs; -Methods to quantify energy savings impacts from energy efficiency building improvements; and -Available resources and tools to support energy impact assessments. C-PACE programs may benefit from energy impact assessments for many reasons, including: -Validating the public benefits of the programs -Demonstrating that C-PACE can deliver participant benefits -Illustrating program impacts on public policy goals -Generating data to help improve program performance Many C-PACE programs are collecting data on project energy savings impacts, and these data can be leveraged to further support decision making and program implementation. Potential drawbacks to energy impact assessments may include added cost and burdens on property owners (e.g., the need to collect building energy consumption data). Where these burdens are considerable, they might slow program uptake. State and local governments can balance the benefits of energy impact assessments with the range of costs and accuracy inherent to available assessment methodologies. Additionally, depending on the policy context in the state or local government, a C-PACE program may be able to leverage existing efforts (e.g., building energy benchmarking programs) to reduce impact assessment costs, align with building owner practices and expectations, and efficiently assess program impact.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Toward a standard in structural genome annotation for prokaryotes

In an effort to identify the best practice for finding genes in prokaryotic genomes and propose it as a standard for automated annotation pipelines, we collected 1,004,576 peptides from various publicly available resources, and these were used as a basis to evaluate various gene-calling methods. The peptides came from 45 bacterial replicons with an average GC content from 31 % to 74 %, biased toward higher GC content genomes. Automated, manual, and semi-manual methods were used to tally errors in three widely used gene calling methods, as evidenced by peptides mapped outside the boundaries of called genes. We found that the consensus set of identical genes predicted by the three methods constitutes only about 70 % of the genes predicted by each individual method (with start and stop required to coincide). Peptide data was useful for evaluating some of the differences between gene callers, but not reliable enough to make the results conclusive, due to limitations inherent in any proteogenomic study. A single, unambiguous, unanimous best practice did not emerge from this analysis, since the available proteomics data were not adequate to provide an objective measurement of differences in the accuracy between these methods. However, as a result of this study, software, reference data, and procedures have been better matched among participants, representing a step toward a much-needed standard. In the absence of sufficient amount of experimental data to achieve a universal standard, our recommendation is that any of these methods can be used by the community, as long as a single method is employed across all datasets to be compared.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Innovative Pathways to Net Zero Emissions: Subnational Strategies for Distributed Solar Deployment to Improve Grid Quality and Reduce Energy Costs in Argentina

Through Net Zero World, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the National Energy Secretariat of Argentina, La Pampa's Energy and Mining Secretariat, Pampetrol, and the Administracion Provincial de Energia de La Pampa (APELP) conducted an integrated analysis of the power system of the La Pampa province in Argentina. The study assessed the impact that solar and battery energy storage systems could have on the region grid's reliability and electricity costs, providing insights into long-term decarbonization strategies across Argentina. The analysis demonstrated that these systems are expected not only to help with decarbonization efforts but also to bolster grid resiliency, reduce line losses, and improve voltage regulation while lowering electricity costs. The paper offers a replicable framework for similar studies across other Argentine provinces, which could inform a national grid reliability plan and promote regional coordination. Such coordination will play a key role in supporting a nationwide clean energy transition as Argentina increases its share of renewable energy. By coordinating subnational energy plans with national strategies, Argentina can secure a resilient clean energy future, leveraging the substantial renewable resources available across its provinces.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Economic Accessibility of CO2 Sequestration through Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) in the US

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is one strategy to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. To assess the potential scale and cost of CO2 sequestration from BECCS in the US, this analysis models carbon sequestration net of supply chain emissions and costs of biomass production, delivery, power generation, and CO2 capture and sequestration in saline formations. The analysis includes two biomass supply scenarios (near-term and long-term), two biomass logistics scenarios (conventional and pelletized), and two generation technologies (pulverized combustion and integrated gasification combined cycle). Results show marginal cost per tonne CO2 (accounting for costs of electricity and CO2 emissions of reference power generation scenarios) as a function of CO2 sequestered (simulating capture of up to 90% of total CO2 sequestration potential) and associated spatial distribution of resources and generation locations for the array of scenario options. Under a near-term scenario using up to 206 million tonnes per year of biomass, up to 181 million tonnes CO2 can be sequestered annually at scenario-average costs ranging from $62 to $137 per tonne CO2; under a long-term scenario using up to 740 million tonnes per year of biomass, up to 737 million tonnes CO2 can be sequestered annually at scenario-average costs ranging from $42 to $92 per tonne CO2. These estimates of CO2 sequestration potential may be reduced if future competing demand reduces resource availability or may be increased if displaced emissions from conventional power sources are included. Results suggest there are large-scale opportunities to implement BECCS at moderate cost in the US, particularly in the Midwest, Plains States, and Texas.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2018

IAEA Coordinated Research Project on HTGR Physics, Thermal-Hydraulics, and Depletion Uncertainty Analysis Prismatic HTGR Benchmark Specification: Phase II

In February 2009, the Technical Working Group on Gas Cooled Reactors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recommended that the proposed Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on the High-Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling (UAM) be implemented. This CRP is a continuation of the previous IAEA and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)/Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) international activities on verification and validation of available analytical capabilities for HTGR simulation for design and safety evaluations. Within the framework of these activities different numerical and experimental benchmark problems were performed, and insight was gained about specific physics phenomena and the adequacy of analysis methods. Because the prismatic design specification included in this report is based directly on the OECD/NEA Modular HTGR (MHTGR) 350 MW benchmark, participants in both activities can leverage their core models developed for the OECD/NEA benchmark for this CRP benchmark with only minor changes. The CRP on the HTGR UAM Phase II specifications is also directly linked to the Phase I specification document, since the core models required for Phase II exercises are constructed using the lattice models and cross-section libraries developed for Phase 1. It was decided at the Third Research Coordination Meeting (RCM) in May 2017 that the initial scope of CRP activities will be reduced to match the formally approved remaining contract period (June 2019), as well as limited funding and resource availability. A summary of the revised Phases I–IV exercise definitions is provided here.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

ChatPORT: Fine-Tuned LLM for Easy Code {PORT}ing

Fine-tuning existing LLMs for specialized tasks has become a very attractive alternative due to its low cost and quick development cycle. With many pre-trained LLMs available, it is an increasingly complex task to choose the correct model as the starting point or base model. In this work we discuss ChatPORT - a specialized fine-tuned LLM geared towards providing correctly translated codes from one programming model to another. We evaluate a number of base models and compare and contrast their features and characteristics that make them a viable starting point. In this paper, we focus on the OpenMP offload porting capabilities of ChatPORT. We build our training data using kernels from the Heterogeneous Computing Benchmarks (HeCBench) [12] and the OpenMP Validation and Verification suite [5] to fine-tune the base models. We then test the model using unseen kernels extracted from the HeCBench benchmark suite. Our results show that: (1) not all open LLMs geared towards HPC are aware of programming models like OpenMP, (2) although all base models benefit from fine-tuning they learn differently and produce different correctness rates, (3) depending on the memory size and compute resource available, different base models can be used for fine-tuning without significantly affecting the quality of transpiled code they generate, (4) fine-tuning improved the correctness rate of the LLM by an average of 43.2%, and (5) feedback-based training data further increased the correctness rate by an average of 6% over the LLMs tested.

Pophale, Swaroop [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000185446367)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate change

Climate change projections consistently demonstrate that warming temperatures and dwindling seasonal snowpack will elicit cascading effects on ecosystem function and water resource availability. Despite this consensus, little is known about potential changes in the variability of ecohydrological conditions, which is also required to inform climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Considering potential changes in ecohydrological variability is critical to evaluating the emergence of trends, assessing the likelihood of extreme events such as floods and droughts, and identifying when tipping points may be reached that fundamentally alter ecohydrological function. Using a single-model Large Ensemble with sophisticated terrestrial ecosystem representation, we characterize projected changes in the mean state and variability of ecohydrological processes in historically snow-dominated regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Widespread snowpack reductions, earlier snowmelt timing, longer growing seasons, drier soils, and increased fire risk are projected for this century under a high-emissions scenario. In addition to these changes in the mean state, increased variability in winter snowmelt will increase growing-season water deficits and increase the stochasticity of runoff. Thus, with warming, declining snowpack loses its dependable buffering capacity so that runoff quantity and timing more closely reflect the episodic characteristics of precipitation. This results in a declining predictability of annual runoff from maximum snow water equivalent, which has critical implications for ecosystem stress and water resource management. So our results suggest that there is a strong likelihood of pervasive alterations to ecohydrological function that may be expected with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Development of a Technology Roadmap for Online Monitoring of Nuclear Power Plants

The nuclear power industry has recently recognized the potential cost saving that can be achieved from migrating the current manual and labor dependent surveillance and preventive maintenance activities to data-driven online monitoring methods. Since then, several efforts have been launched with various degrees of momentum to tackle specific surveillance or preventive maintenance activities. The light water reactor sustainability program (LWRS) program has anticipated this need and launched an effort that aimed to develop a technology roadmap for the nuclear power industry. Because the roadmap has to be focused towards the user or application’s value, and because nuclear power plants have different process efficiencies and deficiencies, the technology roadmap has to be plant independent. Achieving this objective required optimizing the extent of details described by a technology roadmap. The approach followed is for the roadmap to describe the sequence of activities needed to automate a process or equipment activity, but not describe the sequence of processes or equipment to target. For example, the steps required to migrate the inspection of a pump are plant independent. However, defining that the migration of feed water pumps inspections to online monitoring should be performed before inspections of feed water valves is dependent on multiple plant factors such as the plant requirements, labor work capacity, and process or equipment conditions. The technology roadmap was broken down into six elements, four of which have a sequential path of advancement, while the other two are supporting elements to the sequential elements. The sequential part of the roadmap analyzes data collection, analytics, visualization, and management. For these elements of the technology roadmap, the migration of an activity is defined in three states. The base state is defined as the most primitive, manual, and labor dependent process used by some nuclear power plants. The modern state is defined as the state that can be achieved if the activities are augmented or replaced by current technologies that are commercially available or are soon to be available. The state of the art is defined as using technologies of the future, i.e. concept and technologies that are being researched. The data collection part of the technology roadmap defines three states of every process performed in a nuclear power plant. However, the data analytics part is described based on equipment, because automating an activity performed on one equipment required considering multiple data sources. The visualization and data management elements are process or equipment independent. Visualization describes the means to use human factor science and technologies advancement in presenting the data collected and the data analytics results. The data management targets storage, communication, and computational power need, in addition to data integration and sharing. Since storage, communication, and computational power technologies and path for deployment are known to any information technology organization, this effort targeted the cost of data management. This has a direct impact on the feasibility of the automation effort. The supporting elements analyzes the value of automating the activity and the change challenges to tackle. For the support elements, the roadmap targeted describing activities that need to be performed as part of the roadmap development. The value element of the roadmap describes how to analyze the cost saving and the associated risk. The change management identifies multiple factors to consider such as regulation, cybersecurity, resource availability, supporting infrastructure availability, feasibility (power, fitness, environment tolerance, facilities), and cultural change.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Optimized blind gamma-ray pulsar searches at fixed computing budget

The sensitivity of blind gamma-ray pulsar searches in multiple years worth of photon data, as from the Fermi LAT, is primarily limited by the finite computational resources available. Addressing this 'needle in a haystack' problem, here we present methods for optimizing blind searches to achieve the highest sensitivity at fixed computing cost. For both coherent and semicoherent methods, we consider their statistical properties and study their search sensitivity under computational constraints. The results validate a multistage strategy, where the first stage scans the entire parameter space using an efficient semicoherent method and promising candidates are then refined through a fully coherent analysis. We also find that for the first stage of a blind search incoherent harmonic summing of powers is not worthwhile at fixed computing cost for typical gamma-ray pulsars. Further enhancing sensitivity, we present efficiency-improved interpolation techniques for the semicoherent search stage. Via realistic simulations we demonstrate that overall these optimizations can significantly lower the minimum detectable pulsed fraction by almost 50% at the same computational expense.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Endogenizing Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Risks in Deterministic Capacity Expansion Models

In this work, we demonstrate how power system capacity expansion models can understate the stochastic effects of thermal outages when considering resource availabilities on an hourly expected value basis, yielding system designs with multiple orders of magnitude more shortfall risk than stated adequacy targets. We develop a novel approximation approach to efficiently endogenize awareness of this risk in a deterministic, linear capacity expansion framework. We compare this approach to exogenous tuning of an energy reserve margin, the leading alternative method to compensate for unmodeled probabilistic shortfall risk. Empirical results from a test system show that the new endogenous method cost-effectively meets all regional reliability targets with a single optimization solve, and produces a near-identical system design as the incumbent method without the need for repeated re-optimizations to find an appropriate reserve level. The endogenous method may also use iterative re-optimizations to further improve solution quality, although these incremental benefits were modest in the system studied.

capacity expansion modeling↗
DOE OSTI2021

Plant Single-Cell Solutions for Energy and the Environment (Second Workshop Report)

Plants are important sources of energy and materials, and they collectively represent a critical component of Earth’s ecosystem. With increasing environmental stresses due to climate change and intensive agricultural practices, the need for resilient plants is greater than ever before. To secure plant resources for bioenergy, biomaterials, food, and ecosystem adaptation, a deeper understanding of the fundamental biology of plants at a cellular level is urgently needed. Plants contain a multitude of specialized cell types that compose tissues and organs. Pathogens often target specific cell types within plants, and the response of one cell to a particular stimulus is likely to be distinct from its neighbor because of underlying molecular and contextual differences. Understanding how these responses are distributed among cells, the main goal of single-cell approaches, will substantially enhance our ability to use targeted engineering for improving plant productivity and resilience. Furthermore, single-cell approaches are necessary to understand the interactions between plants and other ecosystem members such as fungi, bacteria, and archaea. Unlocking these gene-response mechanisms at a cellular level can improve our ability to adapt plants to environmental stresses, increasing their utility as feedstocks for biomaterials and bioenergy. Recent advances in high-throughput sequencing, mass spectrometry, microfluidics and miniaturization, artificial intelligence and machine learning, and bioinformatics have greatly improved our ability to detect and understand processes at a cellular level. In mammalian systems, single-cell transcriptomics has already led to many advances, such as newly identified cell types and cell-targeted treatment of diseases, and mass spectrometry-based single-cell proteomics has recently been demonstrated as a promising emerging technology. However, plant single-cell omics has lagged behind mammalian approaches due to the high cost of the technologies relative to available resources and to the innate biological features of plants, including the complexity of the cell wall and polyploidy. To better understand how single-cell methods could enable plant science, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) hosted a workshop on April 29, 2021, that brought together a diverse group of leaders in plant and/or single-cell biology. Attendees represented federal research programs and domestic and international academic institutions. During the workshop, three presenters described the current state of research in both experimental and computational approaches. While the focus of the workshop was on factors preventing plant biology researchers from fully adopting single-cell methodologies, workshop participants agreed that most barriers could be overcome with focused, strategic investment and coordinated efforts among institutions leading to significant scientific discoveries that would be difficult to obtain using more conventional technologies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The impact of plant‐derived fire management prescriptions on fire‐responsive bird species

Abstract In fire‐prone regions, the occurrence of some faunal species is contingent on the presence of resources that arise through post‐fire plant succession. Through planned burning, managers can alter resource availability and aim to provide the conditions required to promote biodiversity. Understanding how species occurrence changes at different spatial and temporal scales after fire is essential to achieve this goal. However, many fire prescriptions are guided primarily by the responses of fire‐sensitive plants when setting tolerable fire intervals. This approach assumes that maintaining floristic diversity will satisfy the requirements of fauna. We surveyed bird species in two semi‐arid vegetation types across an environmental gradient in south‐eastern Australia. We conducted four surveys at each of 253 sites across a 75‐year chronosequence of time since fire and used generalized additive mixed models to examine changes in the occurrence of birds in response to time since fire. Model predictions were compared to plant‐derived fire prescriptions currently guiding fire management in the region. Time since fire was a significant predictor for 18 of 28 species modeled, in at least one vegetation type, over a gradient of 1.3° of latitude. We detected considerable variation in the responses of some species, both between vegetation types and geographically within a vegetation type. Our evaluation of plant‐derived fire prescriptions suggests that the intervals considered acceptable for maintaining floristic diversity may not be sustainable for populations of birds requiring longer unburnt vegetation, with 6 of the 12 species assessed attaining a mean occurrence probability of 20.3% by the minimum tolerable fire interval, and 57.3% by the maximum tolerable fire interval, in their respective vegetation types. Our findings highlight the potential vulnerability of fire‐responsive bird species if fire prescriptions are applied in a manner that fails to account for the slow development of habitat resources needed by some species, and the variation detected within the responses of species. This highlights the need for species‐specific data collected at an appropriate spatial scale to inform management plans.

Makdissi, Rhys↗
DOE OSTI2025

The transition from resistance to acceptance: Managing a marine invasive species in a changing world

Abstract Marine invasive species can transform coastal ecosystems, yet mitigating their effects can be difficult, and even impractical. Often, marine invasive species are managed at poorly matched spatial scales, and at the same time, rates of spread and establishment are increasing under climate change and can outpace resources available for population suppression. These circumstances challenge traditional conservation goals of maintaining a historic environmental state, especially for a species like the European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a formidable invader with few examples of successful long‐term removal programs. A management paradigm where decision alternatives include resisting or accepting a new ecological trajectory may be needed. We apply mathematical concepts from decision theory to develop a quantitative framework for navigating management decisions in this new resist‐accept paradigm. We develop a model of European green crab growth, removal and colonization, and we find optimal levels of removal effort that minimize both ecological change and removal cost. We establish a benchmark of colonization pressure at which green crab density becomes decoupled from a decision maker's actions, such that population control can no longer shape the invasion trajectory. For informing the decision boundary between resistance and acceptance, our results highlight that a decision maker's understanding of how removal cost scales with removal effort is more important than understanding the density‐impact relationship. We show that assuming stationary system dynamics can result in sub‐optimal levels of species removal effort, highlighting the importance of developing anticipatory management strategies by accounting for non‐stationary dynamics. Policy implications . For marine invasive species that can disperse across long distances and recolonize rapidly after removal, the focus of conservation policy should shift away from understanding how to resist change to understanding when to stop resisting change. Navigating this decision problem involves trade‐offs among competing objectives, highlighting the need for structured approaches to elicit objective weights that reflect the values of the decision maker. For natural resource managers facing possible ecosystem transformation, this decision framework can enable proactive and strategic decisions made under uncertainty in a changing world.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗