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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2004

Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2002

Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Composing Teams with TEAMSTaR Tool for Evaluating and Mitigating Space Team Risk

As NASA sets its sights on more Earth-independent missions, the mission to Mars as a prime example, a team’s composition becomes a critical issue for mitigating the risks of such endeavors. The purpose of this project is to develop and validate TEAMSTaR (Tool for Evaluating And Mitigating Space Team Risks), a team composition decision support system that can be used by mission stakeholders (e.g., mission schedulers, crew members) to predict how a hypothetical team’s social relationships are likely to evolve and influence crew performance over the course of a mission. TEAMSTaR will enable decision makers to evaluate composition scenarios for a set of teams, for single-member replacements, and/or for subsets of teams.

N S Contractor↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantitative Risk Assessment for Hydrogen-Powered Locomotive Refueling

Hydrogen powered locomotives are being explored to reduce emissions in rail applications. The risks of operations like refueling should be understood to ensure safe environments for workers and members of the public. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using HyRAM+ to identify major drivers of risk and compare effects of system parameters on individual risk. The consequences of jet fires from full-bore leaks dominated the risk, compared to explosions or smaller leaks. Pipe size, leak detection capability, and leak frequencies of system components greatly affected risk while overpressure modeling parameters and ambient conditions had little effect. The effects of personal protective equipment (PPE) materials on individual risk were quantified by reducing the individual’s exposure time or absorbed thermal dose. PPE only showed a risk reduction in low-risk cases. This study highlighted target areas for risk mitigation, including leak detection equipment and component maintenance, and indicated that the minimal effects of other parameters on risk may not justify prescriptive requirements for refueling operators.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mapping Critical Vulnerabilities in Natural Gas Pipeline Systems through Network Centrality and GIS Analytics

Natural gas plays a central role in the US energy landscape, providing 43% of electricity generation in 2023. Its exclusive recovery ability on pipelines for transmission underscores the importance of understanding the disruption recovery ability of this infrastructure. This study employs a network-based analytical framework integrating geographic information systems (GIS) with multiple centrality measures—betweenness, closeness, degree, and eigenvector—to pinpoint key segments and evaluate the structural robustness of the national pipeline network. Pipelines are grouped by System ID and Operator ID to capture variations across organizational and physical structures. The analysis reveals uneven patterns of network influence, where certain pipelines function as critical connectors or dominant hubs. Spatial mapping highlights geographic dependencies and potential chokepoints, offering a clear view of where targeted risk prevention measures would be most effective. The findings provide practical guidance for prioritizing maintenance, enhancing system robustness, and mitigating risks to ensure a stable and secure energy supply. Future research will expand the framework to incorporate dynamic operational data and real-time network behavior.

Peterson, Steven [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000287672998)↗
NASA NTRS2011

Uncertainty Analysis in Space Radiation Protection

Space radiation is comprised of high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, protons, and secondary radiation including neutrons. The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are a major limitation to the length of space missions, the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches, and application of the As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principle. For long duration space missio ns, risks may approach radiation exposure limits, therefore the uncertainties in risk projections become a major safety concern and methodologies used for ground-based works are not deemed to be sufficient. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. We discuss NASA s approach to space radiation uncertainty assessments and applications for the International Space Station (ISS) program and design studies of future missions to Mars and other destinations. Several features of NASA s approach will be discussed. Radiation quality descriptions are based on the properties of radiation tracks rather than LET with probability distribution functions (PDF) for uncertainties derived from radiobiology experiments at particle accelerators. The application of age and gender specific models for individual astronauts is described. Because more than 90% of astronauts are never-smokers, an alternative risk calculation for never-smokers is used and will be compared to estimates for an average U.S. population. Because of the high energies of the GCR limits the benefits of shielding and the limited role expected for pharmaceutical countermeasures, uncertainty reduction continues to be the optimal approach to improve radiation safety for space missions.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A roadmap to understanding and anticipating microbial gene transfer in soil communities

Engineered microbes are being programmed using synthetic DNA for applications in soil to overcome global challenges related to climate change, energy, food security, and pollution. However, we cannot yet predict gene transfer processes in soil to assess the frequency of unintentional transfer of engineered DNA to environmental microbes when applying synthetic biology technologies at scale. This challenge exists because of the complex and heterogeneous characteristics of soils, which contribute to the fitness and transport of cells and the exchange of genetic material within communities. Here, we describe knowledge gaps about gene transfer across soil microbiomes. Here, we propose strategies to improve our understanding of gene transfer across soil communities, highlight the need to benchmark the performance of biocontainment measures in situ, and discuss responsibly engaging community stakeholders. We highlight opportunities to address knowledge gaps, such as creating a set of soil standards for studying gene transfer across diverse soil types and measuring gene transfer host range across microbiomes using emerging technologies. By comparing gene transfer rates, host range, and persistence of engineered microbes across different soils, we posit that community-scale, environment-specific models can be built that anticipate biotechnology risks. Such studies will enable the design of safer biotechnologies that allow us to realize the benefits of synthetic biology and mitigate risks associated with the release of such technologies.

bioccontainment↗
NASA NTRS2008

NASA TEERM Principal Center Non-Chrome Projects

Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) Principal Center Mission is to identify and validate environmental technologies through joint activities that enhance mission readiness and reduce risk while minimizing duplication and associated costs.

Rothgeb, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Overview of NASA's Risk of Cardiovascular Disease from Radiation Exposure

The association between high doses of radiation exposure and cardiovascular damage is well established. Patients that have undergone radiotherapy for primary cancers of the head and neck and mediastinal regions have shown increased risk of heart and vascular damage and long-term development of radiation-induced heart disease [1]. In addition, recent meta-analyses of epidemiological data from atomic bomb survivors and nuclear industry workers has also shown that acute and chronic radiation exposures is strongly correlated with an increased risk of circulatory disease at doses above 0.5 Sv [2]. However, these analyses are confounded for lower doses by lifestyle factors, such as drinking, smoking, and obesity. The types of radiation found in the space environment are significantly more damaging than those found on Earth and include galactic cosmic radiation (GCR), solar particle events (SPEs), and trapped protons and electrons. In addition to the low-LET data, only a few studies have examined the effects of heavy ion radiation on atherosclerosis, and at lower, space-relevant doses, the association between exposure and cardiovascular pathology is more varied and unclear. Understanding the qualitative differences in biological responses produced by GCR compared to Earth-based radiation is a major focus of space radiation research and is imperative for accurate risk assessment for long duration space missions. Other knowledge gaps for the risk of radiation-induced cardiovascular disease include the existence of a dose threshold, low dose rate effects, and potential synergies with other spaceflight stressors. The Space Radiation Program Element within NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is managing the research and risk mitigation strategies for these knowledge gaps. In this presentation, we will review the evidence and present an overview of the HRP Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Other Degenerative Tissue Effects from Radiation Exposure.

Patel, Zarana S.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Behavioral Makers to Assess During Selection for Active and Non-Active Astronauts

INTRODUCTION: NASA and our international partners seek to stay ahead of the evolving nature of the astronaut role. Spaceflight comes with various risks to team and individual. NASA has worked with its international partners in developing selection guidelines for minimal behavioral competencies needed upon selection. Training should be provided on the remaining behavioral competencies required for spaceflight. We will provide an overview of the process of identifying competencies important to assess as part of a multi-method selection program for active and non-active astronauts. TOPIC: NASA, ESA, CSA, and JAXA agency representatives used their vast combined knowledge and experience to develop competency requirement standards that future selection programs should assess when selecting astronauts. The astronaut role is expanding to include astronauts whose purposes are quite varied. NASA and its international partners identified the need to identify what competencies are required for anyone who will be experiencing the incredible demands, risks, and unique circumstances associated with spaceflight. Competencies include those required for individual and team functioning within the isolated, confined, and extreme environment. This need grew out of greater commercialization of spaceflight and other budding spaceflight prospects. 1. Each agency rated previously defined spaceflight required competencies (not important 0, somewhat important .5, or extremely important 1) to assess during selection. We did this for short duration (<14 days) and for long duration (<14 days) missions as some competencies appear to become of greater importance with longer duration missions. 2. We rated competencies for non-active crew and revisited previous ratings for active crew. 3. We compared agency ratings for non-active/active and short-duration/long-duration requirements and discussed in ratings until consensus was reached. We will use ratings to compile selection standards for active and non-active astronauts. APPLICATION: Our working group has vast operational experience and knowledge of the risk factors present during spaceflight that can disrupt individual and team functioning. Selection is one of the most important countermeasures for mitigating risk to individual and team health and performance. Our work should inform future programs for selecting crewmembers for short- and long-duration spaceflight among active and non-active crews.

Alexa Baxley↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lunar Regolith Trajectories as a Result of Plume Surface Interactions

Lunar regolith is ejected from the impingement points of descent engine plumes. Such particles pose potential risks to surface operations, sites of scientific and historical interest, and orbiting spacecraft. Consequently, determining the resultant trajectories of these particles is necessary in order to estimate and mitigate risk. Here we present the ranges, impact latitudes, times of flight, and maximum altitudes for particles accelerated by a plume surface interaction at the lunar south pole. Using launch angles determined from observations and simulations, and for velocities <1:6 km/s, particles pose little risk. However, above 1:6 km/s the risks increase, and the results become highly sensitive to the initial angle. In addition, gravitational and non-gravitational processes will introduce perturbations to high-velocity trajectories resulting in a reduction in precision. Therefore, while local topography or artificial berms may mitigate trajectories with low initial angles, it remains important to place tight constraints on the potential launch angles of particles accelerated by plume surface interactions through simulations and experimentation. If these angles are indeed constrained to within a few degrees of the horizon, the risks posed by accelerated regolith particles at any velocity will be minimal.

Daniel Batcheldor↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

IMPACT - Information for the Development of Human Health and Performance Systems

IMPACT is a suite of computational and systems engineering tools. Currently being developed for NASA Exploration Medical Capabilities (ExMC) and could be extended to other Human Research Program (HRP) elements. The purpose is to provide a data-driven means to inform human health and performance risk mitigation during exploration missions considering resource constraints in the medical system. IMPACT enables systematic trade studies to evaluate options. IMPACT uses Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as a systematic methodology to evaluate risks. IMPACT is currently under development to inform decision-makers the risks involved with trade-options that have likelihoods and consequences backed by scientific research in a medical evidence library. IMPACT supports multi-segment analysis to determine probabilities and risks in different mission segments. There are currently 122 medical conditions and 900 resources in the IMPACT Medical Database. IMPACT modeling is using mission segments and multiple vehicles for the NASA Artemis campaign and could support future complex missions in deep space.

IMPACT PRA↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design and Testing of an Approach to Automated In-Flight Safety Risk Management for sUAS Operations

An onboard risk management automation design is presented based on run-time assurance principles, as well as the concept for In-Time Aviation Safety Management Systems (IASMS) as described by the National Academies. The automation is designed to operate independently of the autopilot and perform real-time risk assessment spanning multiple classes of hazards, predict constraint violations, and track autopilot states. In the event of elevated risk conditions or predicted constraint violations, the automation will select from a set of available contingencies and trigger autopilot mode changes if necessary to mitigate risk exposure. The onboard automation also informs the remote operator/pilot of what the independent monitor is observing and any contingency decisions or actions that may arise during flight. Details of an implementation of this design and results of verification and validation activities, as required to meet stringent NASA software and system assurance standards, are also presented. This includes simulation and flight testing using small unmanned aircraft systems.

Ersin Ancel↗
DOE OSTI2024

Addressing Consequence within Operational Risk (O.T. Gagnon III) 9-18-2024

Addressing Consequence within Operational Risk: Why threats and security are just not that important! When dealing with cyber or physical risk within any critical infrastructure (CI) environment, don’t concern yourself with vulnerabilities and threats, at least not at first! Also, don’t be overly fixated on “securing the systems” within the organization. The endeavor of tackling operational risk focused on consequences in any critical infrastructure environment to include the complex Aviation ecosystem is challenging even for the most resourced entity but can be advanced though a simplified approach: identifying, binning, and prioritizing the infrastructure environment. While no two entities within a single element of the 16 critical infrastructure sectors are exactly alike when it comes to risk, there is a basic process to move toward a greater understanding of operational risk through becoming more informed about the infrastructure environment in which the entity exists. The process starts with bringing internal and external stakeholders and subject matter experts together to analyze key areas such as Information Technology (IT) and Operational Technology (OT) components and points of convergence, analyzing internal and external cyber and physical dependencies, accounting for explosive growth in devices and wireless technology, and leveraging the contributions of people inside and outside the operational environment. Attaining a common understanding of the infrastructure environment as part of addressing consequences within operational risk is not easy to do or resource light, but the process outlined provides the framework to further any entity’s efforts in this space. When it comes to cyber risks, before an organization can consider vulnerabilities within and threats to its operations, it must first have a solid understanding of the consequences existing inside its infrastructure environment. Idaho National Lab’s Consequence-Driven, Cyber-Informed Engineering is offered as an example of this approach to effective and efficient cyber risk mitigation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2018

Modeling the Risk of U.S. Offshore Oil & Gas Exploration-Well Drilling, Commercial Nuclear Plants, and Human Spaceflight

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has been applied in different industries for many years. Each industry and technology area presents varying challenges and priorities, and the risk models therefore need to be somewhat different. This paper compares aspects of risk modeling of offshore drilling, nuclear plant operation, and human spaceflight. Risk models in all three technology areas have certain high-level similarities: (1) they employ redundancy and diversity in their means to prevent or mitigate risk, including a mix of active and passive systems designed to respond to off-normal evolutions; (2) they are affected by human reliability; (3) their models require consideration of coupling between scenario structure and scenario phenomenology. But in examining the models in more detail, one sees important differences in methodology and emphasis. For purposes of comparison, this paper discusses aspects of a risk model of an offshore drilling operation in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, focusing on where such a development differs in important ways from models of commercial U.S. nuclear plants and models developed for human spaceflight.

Boyer, Roger L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The New Face of Data Accessibility

Management of medical and research data at NASA's Johnson Space Center has been addressed with two separate, independent systems: the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (formerly, The Longitudinal Study of Astronaut Health) (LSAH) and the Life Sciences Data Archive (LSDA). Project management for these has been autonomous with little or no cross-over of goals, objectives or strategy. The result has been limited debate and discussion regarding how contents from one repository might impact or guide the direction of the other. It is decidedly more efficient to use existing data and information than to re-generate them. Ensuring that both clinical and research data / information are accessible for review is a central concept to the decision to unify these repositories. In the past, research data from flight and ground analogs has been held in the LSDA and medical data held in the Electronic Medical Record or in console flight surgeon logs and records. There was little cross-pollination between medical and research findings and, as a result, applicable research was not being fully incorporated into clinical, in-flight practice. Conversely, findings by the console surgeon were not being picked up by the research community. The desired life cycle for risk mitigation was not being fully realized. The goal of unifying these repositories and processes is to provide a closely knit approach to handling medical and research data, which will not only engender discussion and debate but will also ensure that both categories of data and information are used to enhance the use of medical and research data to reduce risk and promote the understanding of space physiology, countermeasures and other mitigation strategies

Fitts, Mary A.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Integrated Systems Engineering, Safety, Reliability and Risk Management – Minimizing Black Swan Events

This paper examines key barriers that can possibly inhibit safe and reliable mission execution and, in the worst case, result in loss of human life due to many unknown contributory factors that can lead to Black Swan events. Some of the representative contributory factors include decision errors, overconfidence and a host of common causes including cultural and human factors. Decisions are always easy to criticize in hindsight when more information is available after a major accident. Depending on the type and complexity of the project and/or mission, the catastrophic risks of drifting into failure can be alleviated by implementing uniquely and strategically tailored Integrated-System-of-Systems, dynamic, risk-informed decision management processes. This paper presents some of the lessons learned from James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), NASA’s Human Space Flight program, and industry that provide motivation to organizations working on mega-complex missions to prudently accomplish targeted mission success. These lessons are important for future human Lunar, Mars and Beyond missions planned to be pursued by NASA through a public-private partnership using nimble but effective safety-conscious, proven sound engineering practices including implementation of integrated risk mitigation practices.

SLS↗
NASA NTRS2001

Lessons Learned and Process Improvement for Payload Operations at the Launch Site

For every space mission, there are challenges with the launch site/field operations process that are addressed too late in the development cycle. This potentially causes schedule delays, cost overruns, and adds risk to the mission success. This paper will discuss how a single interface, representing the payload at the launch site in all phases of development, will mitigate risk, and minimize or even alleviate potential problems later on. Experience has shown that a single interface between the project and the launch site allows for issues to be worked in a timely manner and bridges the gap between two diverse cultures.

Catena, John↗