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NASA NTRS1986

Energy balance in solar active regions - The dip of April, 1985

The presence of a solar active region affects the luminosity of the sun. Sunspots directly produce 'dips' in the total solar irradiance approximately proportionally to their projected area, while faculae produce excess energy. These effects were discovered during the solar maximum period of 1980, and the sunspot effect during solar minimum is examined. The 'dip' due to an active region in April, 1985, as observed in the total solar irradiance by the ACRIM instrument on the Solar Maximum Mission is examined. These data (obtained after the spacecraft repair in May, 1984) have simple variations, relative to those observed in 1980, because of the reduced level of activity approaching solar minimum. It is found that the PSI index of projected sunspot area as defined in 1980 appears to describe this 'dip' satisfactorily.

Hudson, H. S.↗

NASA NTRS2019

ISEP: A Joint SRAG/CCMC Collaboration to Improve Mitigation of Space Weather Effects on Crew Health in the Exo-LEO Era

The Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is tasked with monitoring changes to space weather and mitigating any resultant impacts to crew health and safety. As human spaceflight goals extend from Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) missions like the International Space Station (ISS) to the moon, Mars and beyond, SRAG will need to update their current approach for crew monitoring of and protection from radiation exposure due to energetic Solar Particle Events (ESPEs). Challenges faced in planning exo-LEO missions include the lack of protection from the Earth’s geomagnetic field employed by the ISS in addition to limited communication capability between the crew and the ground. In the event of an ESPE, the current ISS trajectory ensures that the vehicle is only traveling through fields of higher radiation exposure for a brief period of time; the Earth’s geomagnetic field prevents the penetration of the high-energy particles of concern throughout the majority of the orbit. Exo-LEO missions, on the other hand, require that the vehicle travel through free space, exposing vehicle and crew to the full impact of the ESPE. NASA has combined multiple approaches to resolve this radiation exposure issue. New vehicles are designed to take advantage of advances in particle transport modeling capabilities and shielding technology, allowing redistribution of mass throughout the vehicle to areas of thinner shielding when the energetic particle flux has increased to levels of concern. Although vehicle shielding is an important aspect of radiation exposure protection, there is a continued requirement to monitor and predict the space weather environment. To this end, SRAG maintains a console position in Mission Control with 24/7 mission support capability. In the event of increased solar activity, SRAG collaborates with the Flight Control Team (FCT) to determine if crew action (i.e., shelter) is required. During any increase in solar activity, the FCT needs three pieces of information to effectively decide the crew response in light of other required mission tasks: if an event (ESPE) will occur, how ‘intense’ an observed event will be, and how long will an observed event will last. An ideal alert system limits false alarms, therefore causing the crew to take action unnecessarily, without ignoring events that pose a hazard to the crew. SRAG’s current operational concept for ISS missions focuses on short-term forecasts, best described as ‘now-casting’. Console operators are in daily communication with the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) for situational awareness purposes. When conditions exist that may lead to increased solar activity, operators receive notifications from SWPC. In the case of a well-connected ESPE, the console operator may only have on the order of minutes to several hours to notify the FCT of the event and provide a recommendation for crew action. As NASA shifts to exo-LEO missions, the increased time in free space as well as the reduced ability to communicate with the crew will force a transition in crew protection strategy that emphasizes improvments to both the accuracy and the lead time in forecasting capabilities.

Barzilla, Janet E.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Effects of Optimisation Parameters on Data-Driven Magnetofrictional Modelling of Active Regions

Context . The solar magnetic field plays an essential role in the formation, evolution, and dynamics of large-scale eruptive structures in the corona. The estimation of the coronal magnetic field, the ultimate driver of space weather, particularly in the ‘low’ and ‘middle’ corona, is presently limited due to practical difficulties. Data-driven time-dependent magnetofrictional modelling (TMFM) of active region magnetic fields has been proven to be a useful tool to study the corona. The input to the model is the photospheric electric field that is inverted from a time series of the photospheric magnetic field. Constraining the complete electric field, that is, including the non-inductive component, is critical for capturing the eruption dynamics. We present a detailed study of the effects of optimisation of the non-inductive electric field on the TMFM of AR 12473. Aims . We aim to study the effects of varying the non-inductive electric field on the data-driven coronal simulations, for two alternative parametrisations. By varying parameters controlling the strength of the non-inductive electric field, we wish to explore the changes in flux rope formation and their early evolution and other parameters, for instance, axial flux and magnetic field magnitude. Methods . We used the high temporal and spatial resolution cadence vector magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The non-inductive electric field component in the photosphere is critical for energising and introducing twist to the coronal magnetic field, thereby allowing unstable configurations to be formed. We estimated this component using an approach based on optimising the injection of magnetic energy. Results . Our data show that flux ropes are formed in all of the simulations except for those with the lower values of these optimised parameters. However, the flux rope formation, evolution and eruption time varies depending on the values of the optimisation parameters. The flux rope is formed and has overall similar evolution and properties with a large range of non-inductive electric fields needed to determine the non-inductive electric field component that is critical for energising and introducing twist to the coronal magnetic field. Conclusions . This study shows that irrespective of non-inductive electric field values, flux ropes are formed and erupted, which indicates that data-driven TMFM can be used to estimate flux rope properties early in their evolution without needing to employ a lengthy optimisation process.

A. Kumari↗

NASA NTRS1983

A study of solar activity-ozone relationship from Nimbus-4 BUV data

The total O3 and the O3 mixing ratio at various pressure levels in the stratosphere measured from the Nimbus-4 BUV experiment over a 7-yr period (1970 to 1977) comprises a comprehensive data base available to study the possible effects of solar variability on stratospheric O3. It is shown that with the decrease in solar activity from 1970 to 1976, the globally averaged O3 inferred from Nimbus-4 data decreases from about 10 to 12 percent in the upper stratosphere to about 1 to 3 percent in the lower stratosphere. The systematic decrease in O3 seems to be correlated with the conventional indices of solar activity; however, it is difficult to account for the observed changes at various pressure levels with the current understanding of the photochemical models and the solar UV flux variations over a solar cycle.

Chandra, S.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Solar activity and modulation of the cosmic ray intensity

Since its discovery by Forbush (1954), the 11-year cycle modulation of the cosmic ray intensity has been studied extensively. Bowe and Hatton (1982) obtained a well-behaved transfer function F between the solar activity S and the cosmic ray intensity modulation Io-I. They suggested that the 11-year variation for sunspot cycle 20 can be attributed to the modulating effect of solar flare-induced shocks propagating through the heliosphere. The cosmic ray intensity in the absence of solar activity is denoted by Io, while I denotes the observed intensity. Bowe and Hatton infer that the boundary of the heliosphere is located at a distance of 70-90 AU. Since their conclusion is of great importance in understanding the mechanism of the 11-year modulation, the present investigation is concerned with a repetition of their study for two cycles, taking into account the use of a slightly modified method. The obtained results confirm the conclusions reached by Bowe and Hatton that there is a well-behaved transfer function for solar flares.

Akasofu, S.-I.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Modelling the high-latitude ionosphere

Results of an ionospheric model program are presented which demonstrate the extreme variability of the steady state, daytime, ionospheric F region electron density and ion composition due to both neutral atmospheric changes with solar cycle, season and magnetic activity, and to the effects of ionospheric drifts caused by perpendicular electric fields. Consideration is given to the time history of the ionospheric plasma as it undergoes convective motion due to the combined effects of corotation forces and electromagnetic forces which results from the mapping of the magnetospheric cross tail electric field to the rotating ionosphere. A simple model of the convection pattern is described. The model calculates the net effect of the tendency for the plasma to corotate about the geographic pole and the E sub Bar times B sub Bar velocity induced by a perpendicular electric field mapped to a circle centered about a point 5 deg antisunward of the geomagnetic pole and oriented such that the equipotentials are parallel to the noon midnight meridian. This convection pattern shows the generally accepted features of high latitude convection, but because of the offset between the geographic and geomagnetic poles a marked universal time dependence in these features is predicted.

Raitt, W. J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Preliminary results from the ISAMS NO channel: Thermospheric radiances

The Improved Stratospheric and Mesospheric Sounder (ISAMS) is producing the first global measurements of emission from the 1 yields 0 band of nitric oxide (NO). The emission from the lower thermosphere has been examined and is seen to increase dramatically at times corresponding to high solar activity. The temporal and geographical extent of the effect is reported, and possible mechanisms for the enhanced emission are discussed. The need for adequate representation of thermospheric NO emission in order to retrieve NO number densities at all heights from ISAMS data is discussed, as are prospects for science studies using such NO number density measurements.

Ballard, J.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Clustering of Emerging Flux

Observations show that newly emerging flux tends to appear on the Solar surface at sites where there is flux already. This results in clustering of solar activity. Standard dynamo theories do not predict this effect.

Flux Cluster dynamo↗

NASA NTRS1997

Solar Cycle Predictions Near Sunspot Minimum

Observations of solar magnetic activity and the dynamics of the solar convection zone have produced severe constraints on models of the Sun's magnetic dynamo. These constraints are so severe that, at present, we do not have numerical models that can accept the current conditions and then march forward in time to predict future activity. Given this state of solar dynamo theory we are forced to examine previous behavior to discover patterns and trends that afford us some measure of predictability. Here we examine the behavior of several indicators of solar activity near solar minimum that are well correlated with the amplitude of the following solar maximum to predict the level of solar activity over cycle 23. Sunspot numbers, areas, and positions are useful for characterizing solar cycle behavior due to the extent of the data (12 cycles or more). These data exhibit several patterns that relate future activity to past behavior. With the Odd-Even effect the odd numbered cycles have been larger than their even numbered predecessors for each of the last six cycle pairs. With the Amplitude-Period effect short period cycles have been followed by large amplitude cycles and long period cycles have been followed by small amplitude cycles for 10 of the last 13 cycles. With the Maximum-Minimum effect the sunspot number at minimum is directly correlated with the sunspot number at maximum for a given cycle. The geomagnetic indices aa and Ap are also related to solar activity by the connections between disturbances in the solar wind and variations in the Earth's magnetic field. Like the Maximum-Minimum effect for sunspots, the size of the aa and Ap indices at minimum are directly related to the amplitude of the following maximum. The number of geomagnetically disturbed days (days with Ap >= 25) over the course of a cycle is another indicator for the size of the next cycle. The aa and Ap indices can each be separated into a component in phase with the current sunspot cycle and an "extended cycle" component that is directly related to the following cycle. Individually each of these indicators provides some measure of predictive ability for the amplitudes of previous cycles. Taken in combination we find that the predictions are much more accurate. Our multi-variate analysis indicates that a maximum sunspot number of 160 +/- 20 should occur near the end of 1999 for cycle 23.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Flare rates and the McIntosh active-region classifications

Multiple linear regression analysis was used to derive the effective solar flare contributions of each of the McIntosh classification parameters. The best fits to the combined average number of M- and X-class X-ray flares per day were found when the flare contributions were assumed to be multiplicative rather than additive. This suggests that nonlinear processes may amplify the effects of the following different active-region properties encoded in the McIntosh classifications: the length of the sunspot group, the size and shape of the largest spot, and the distribution of spots within the group. Since many of these active-region properties are correlated with magnetic field strengths and fluxes, we suggest that the derived correlations reflect a more fundamental relationship between flare production and the magnetic properties of the region. The derived flare contributions for the individual McIntosh parameters can be used to derive a flare rate for each of the three-parameter McIntosh classes. These derived flare rates can be interpreted as smoothed values that may provide better estimates of an active region's expected flare rate when rare classes are reported or when the multiple observing sites report slightly different classifications.

Bornmann, P. L.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Geomagnetic activity associated with earth passage of interplanetary shock disturbances and coronal mass ejections

Coronal mass ejection events (CMEs) are important occasional sources of plasma and magnetic field in the solar wind at 1 AU, accounting for approximately 10 percent of all solar wind measurements in the ecliptic plane during the last solar activity maximum. Using a recently appreciated capability for distinguishing CMEs in solar wind data in the form of counterstreaming solar wind electron events, this paper explores the overall effectiveness of shock wave disturbances and CMFs in general in stimulating geomagnetic activity. The study is confined to the interval from mid-August 1978 through mid-October 1982, spanning the last solar activity maximum, when ISEE 3 was in orbit about the L1 Lagrange point 220 Re upstream from earth. It is found that all but one of the 37 largest geomagnetic storms in that era were associated with earth passage of CMEs and/or shock disturbances, with the large majority of these storms (27 out of 37) being associated with interplanetary events where earth encountered both a shock and the CME driving the shock (shock/CME events). Although CMEs and/or shock disturbances were increasingly the cause of geomagnetic activity as the level of geomagnetic activity increased, many smaller geomagnetic disturbances were unrelated to these events.

Gosling, J. T.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Lunar Precursor Effects in the Solar Wind and Terrestrial Magnetosphere

The two ARTEMIS probes observe significant precursor activity upstream from the Moon, when magnetically connected to the dayside lunar surface. The most common signature consists of high levels of whistler wave activity near half of the electron cyclotron frequency. This precursor activity extends to distances of many thousands of km, in both the solar wind and terrestrial magnetosphere. In the magnetosphere, electrons reflect from a combination of magnetic and electrostatic fields above the lunar surface, forming loss cone distributions. In the solar wind they generally form conics, as a result of reflection from an obstacle moving with respect to the plasma frame (just as at a shock). The anisotropy associated with these reflected electrons provides the free energy source for the whistlers, with cyclotron resonance conditions met between the reflected source population and Moonward-propagating waves. These waves can in turn affect incoming plasma, and we observe significant perpendicular electron heating and plasma density depletions in some cases. In the magnetosphere, we also observe broadband electrostatic modes driven by beams of secondary electrons and/or photoelectrons accelerated outward from the surface. We also occasionally see waves near the ion cyclotron frequency in the magnetosphere. These lower frequency waves, which may result from the presence of ions of lunar origin, modulate the whistlers described above, as well as the electrons. Taken together, our observations suggest that the presence of the Moon leads to the formation of an upstream region analogous in many ways to the terrestrial electron foreshock.

Magnetosphere↗

NASA NTRS1974

Relationships between solar activity and climate change

Recurrent droughts are related to the double sunspot cycle. It is suggested that high solar activity generally increases meridional circulations and blocking patterns at high and intermediate latitudes, especially in winter. This effect is related to the sudden formation of cirrus clouds during strong geomagnetic activity that originates in the solar corpuscular emission.

Roberts, W. O.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report - Extended Summary

The effects of space weather on modern technological systems are well documented in both the technical literature and popular accounts. Most often cited perhaps is the collapse within 90 seconds of northeastern Canada's Hydro-Quebec power grid during the great geomagnetic storm of March 1989, which left millions of people without electricity for up to 9 hours. This event exemplifies the dramatic impact that severe space weather can have on a technology upon which modern society critically depends. Nearly two decades have passed since the March 1989 event. During that time, awareness of the risks of severe space weather has increased among the affected industries, mitigation strategies have been developed, new sources of data have become available, new models of the space environment have been created, and a national space weather infrastructure has evolved to provide data, alerts, and forecasts to an increasing number of users. Now, 20 years later and approaching a new interval of increased solar activity, how well equipped are we to manage the effects of space weather? Have recent technological developments made our critical technologies more or less vulnerable? How well do we understand the broader societal and economic impacts of severe space weather events? Are our institutions prepared to cope with the effects of a 'space weather Katrina,' a rare, but according to the historical record, not inconceivable eventuality? On May 22 and 23, 2008, a one-and-a-half-day workshop held in Washington, D.C., under the auspices of the National Research Council's (NRC's) Space Studies Board brought together representatives of industry, the federal government, and the social science community to explore these and related questions. The key themes, ideas, and insights that emerged during the presentations and discussions are summarized in 'Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report' (The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2008), which was prepared by the Committee on the Societal and Economic Impacts of Severe Space Weather Events: A Workshop. The present document is an expanded summary of that report.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2011

Energetic O+ and H+ Ions in the Plasma Sheet: Implications for the Transport of Ionospheric Ions

The present study statistically examines the characteristics of energetic ions in the plasma sheet using the Geotail/Energetic Particle and Ion Composition data. An emphasis is placed on the O+ ions, and the characteristics of the H+ ions are used as references. The following is a summary of the results. (1) The average O+ energy is lower during solar maximum and higher during solar minimum. A similar tendency is also found for the average H+ energy, but only for geomagnetically active times; (2) The O+ -to -H+ ratios of number and energy densities are several times higher during solar maximum than during solar minimum; (3) The average H+ and O+ energies and the O+ -to -H+ ratios of number and energy densities all increase with geomagnetic activity. The differences among different solar phases not only persist but also increase with increasing geomagnetic activity; (4) Whereas the average H+ energy increases toward Earth, the average O+ energy decreases toward Earth. The average energy increases toward dusk for both the H+ and O+ ions; (5) The O+ -to -H+ ratios of number and energy densities increase toward Earth during all solar phases, but most clearly during solar maximum. These results suggest that the solar illumination enhances the ionospheric outflow more effectively with increasing geomagnetic activity and that a significant portion of the O+ ions is transported directly from the ionosphere to the near ]Earth region rather than through the distant tail.

Ohtani, S.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Prediciting Solar Activity: Today, Tomorrow, Next Year

Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to space weather effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less fuel can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms. Predicting those events that will affect our assets in space includes a solar prediction and how the radiation will propagate through the solar system. I will talk our need for solar activity predictions and anticipate how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

Pesnell, William Dean↗

NASA NTRS1973

A synoptic study of Sudden Phase Anomalies (SPA's) effecting VLF navigation and timing

Sudden phase anomalies (SPA's) observed on VLF recordings are related to sudden ionospheric disturbances due to solar flares. Results are presented for SPA statistics on 500 events observed in New York during the ten year period 1961 to 1970. Signals were at 10.2kHz and 13.6kHz emitted from the OMEGA transmitters in Hawaii and Trinidad. A relationship between SPA frequency and sun spot number was observed. For sun spot number near 85, about one SPA per day will be observed somewhere in the world. SPA activity nearly vanishes during periods of low sun spot number. During years of high solar activity, phase perturbations observed near noon are dominated by SPA effects beyond the 95th percentile. The SPA's can be represented by a rapid phase run-off which is approximately linear in time, peaking in about 6 minutes, and followed by a linear recovery. Typical duration is 49 minutes.

Swanson, E. R.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Solar effects associated with the cosmic ray modulation spectrum

Various indicators of solar activity are examined with reference to the changes observed in the rigidity dependence of cosmic ray modulation between 1969 and 1972. The heliolatitude dependence and the N-S asymmetry of solar activity, as deduced from the distribution of sunspots and sunspot groups, appeared to be related to cosmic ray variations during earlier epochs. The failure of such a relationship to continue during the recovery of cosmic ray intensity is discussed. The heliolatitude dependence of the solar wind velocity, as deduced from IPS observations is also discussed in terms of cosmic ray events and of the long term modulation of cosmic ray intensity.

Mendell, R. B.↗