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NASA NTRS2019

Forecasting the Ambient Solar Wind with Numerical Models. I. On the Implementation of an Operational Framework

The ambient solar wind conditions in interplanetary space and in the near-Earth environment are determined by activity on the Sun. Steady solar wind streams modulate the propagation behavior of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and are themselves an important driver of recurrent geomagnetic storm activity. The knowledge of the ambient solar wind flows and fields is thus an essential component of successful space weather forecasting. Here, we present an implementation of an operational framework for operating, validating, and optimizing models of the ambient solar wind flow on the example of Carrington Rotation 2077. We reconstruct the global topology of the coronal magnetic field using the potential field source surface model (PFSS) and the Schatten current sheet model (SCS) and discuss three empirical relationships for specifying the solar wind conditions near the Sun, namely the Wang–Sheeley (WS) model, the distance from the coronal hole boundary model (DCHB), and the Wang-Sheeley–Arge (WSA) model. By adding uncertainty in the latitude about the sub-Earth point, we select an ensemble of initial conditions and map the solutions to Earth by the Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (HUX) model. We assess the forecasting performance from a continuous variable validation and find that the WSA model most accurately predicts the solar wind speed time series (RMSE≈83 km/s). We note that the process of ensemble forecasting slightly improves the forecasting performance of all solar wind models investigated. We conclude that the implemented framework is well suited for studying the relationship between coronal magnetic fields and the properties of the ambient solar wind flow in the near-Earth environment.

Reiss, Martin A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Search for the Solar Sources of High-Speed Streams

The original Grant was intended to support backward mapping of the stream structures observed at 1 AU by the WIND spacecraft using the observed wind speeds so that solar sources of the streams could be explored. Realizing that backwards mapping was unlikely to produce reasonable results inside of about 30 Rs, we let a subcontract to Mikic and Linker at SAIC who had developed a MHD code to cover the distance between the lower corona and 30 Rs. We used IPS measurements made by our Co-I Andy Breen to try to establish a correlation between the mapped-back streams and IPS determinations of the stream sources. We report the results of these portions of the program and then explain the progress on studies which were proposed to give insight into stream sources by exploiting the alpha/proton abundance ratios observed from WIND.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1982

Evidence for solar wind control of Saturn radio emission

Using data collected by the Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft in 1980 and 1981, strong evidence is presented for a direct correlation between variations in the solar wind at Saturn and the level of activity of Saturn's nonthermal radio emission. Correlation coefficients of 57 to 58% are reached at lag times of 0 to 1 days between the arrival at Saturn of high pressure solar wind streams and the onset of increased radio emission. The radio emission exhibits a long-term periodicity of 25 days, identical to the periodicity seen in the solar wind at this time and consistent with the solar rotation period. The energy coupling efficiency between the solar wind with the Saturn radio emission is estimated and compared with that for Earth.

Desch, M. D.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Solar sources of the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind

Open magnetic field lines, those which extend from the solar photosphere to interplanetary space, are traced in the current-free (potential field) approximation using measured photospheric fields as a boundary condition. It is found that (1) only a relatively small fraction of the photospheric area connects via open field lines to the interplanetary magnetic field; (2) those photospheric areas which do contribute open field lines lie beneath coronal holes and within the boundaries of the holes as projected onto the photosphere or else between loop systems of an active region; (3) the interplanetary magnetic field in the plane of the sun's equator, essentially the field in the ecliptic plane, may connect to photospheric regions of high latitude; and (4) the fastest solar wind streams are correlated with those magnetic flux tubes which expand least in cross-sectional area over the distance between the photosphere and the coronal height where the solar wind begins.

Levine, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS1985

A study of periodicities and recurrences in solar activity and cosmic ray modulation

The 154d periodicity was found in the cosmic ray intensity (RE) vs Flares, and some other peaks of coherency in the RC vs aa sub I, that when interpreted as aliased values, might correspond to recurring interplanetary magnetic field structures and solar wind streams. It cannot be excluded, however, that some of the correspondence with aa are of terrestrial origin. This study cannot be considered exhaustive due to the fact that other solar variables, such as polar hole size, are possibly correlated to cosmic ray intensities. However, the number of observations is small so that the interpretation of the results is very difficult.

Attolini, M. R.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Hybrid Simulation of the Shock Wave Trailing the Moon

A standing shock wave behind the Moon was predicted by Michel (1967) but never observed nor simulated. We use 1D hybrid code in order to simulate the collapse of the plasma-free cavity behind the Moon and for the first time to model the formation of this shock. Starting immediately downstream of the obstacle we consider the evolution of plasma expansion into the cavity in the frame of reference moving along with the solar wind. Well-known effects as electric charging of the cavity affecting the plasma flow and counterstreaming ion beams in the wake are reproduced. Near the apex of the inner Mach cone where the plasma flows from the opposite sides of the obstacle meet, a shock wave arises. We expect the shock to be produced at periods of high electron temperature solar wind streams (T(sub i) much less than T(sub e) approximately 100 eV). The shock is produced by the interaction of oppositely directed proton beams in the plane containing solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field vectors. In the direction across the magnetic field and the solar wind velocity, the shock results from the interaction of the plasma flow with the region of the enhanced magnetic field inside the cavity that plays the role of the magnetic barrier. The appearance of the standing shock wave is expected at the distance of approximately 7R(sub M) downstream of the Moon.

Moon↗

NASA NTRS1974

Solar wind model predictions for the sources of streams observed at 1 AU - Coronal enhancements or coronal holes

The present paper discusses attempts which have been made to locate the solar sources of the solar wind streams observed at or near 1 AU. Solar-wind data collected by the Mariner 2, Mariner 5, and IMP-1 spacecraft are considered. It is concluded that the type of solar feature considered as the source of solar-wind velocity enhancements depends upon the solar-wind model used. All single-fluid models predict the source to have a significantly higher temperature and lower density than the surrounding region, while the two-fluid model predicts a change in temperature that is much smaller than the predicted change in density.

Jones, D. E.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Energy budget in coronal holes.

EUV and radio observation, supplemented by other data, have made it possible to determine the flux of energy, F sub c, conducted from the corona into the chromosphere. Of the mechanical flux input in the corona, F sub m (of which F sub c is a large fraction), there are no direct measurements but limits can be found to it. It is shown that, if the described quantities relative to quiet regions are compared with the same quantities as observed in regions of different activity, it is possible to obtain important information on the regions of origin of the solar wind. In particular, it is found that the regions of very low EUV emission, i.e., the so-called coronal holes, appear to be the source of high energy streams of solar wind.

Noci, G.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Ion streams in the magnetotail

Ion mass spectrometer observations of low-temperature streaming plasmas in the earth's magnetotail are reported. Measurements in the energy per charge range 0 to 17 keV/e were made at geocentric radial distances less than 23 earth radii from the ISEE 1 spacecraft. Ion streams of solar wind origin in the magnetotail boundary layer and of ionospheric origin in the tail lobes and plasma sheet are described. A statistical study of some of the characteristics of the streams allows the inference that the central tail lobe plasmas are primarily constituted of ion streams of ionospheric origin and that the ionosphere is a significant contributor to the hot plasmas that form the plasma sheet.

Sharp, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS2002

The Solar Connections Observatory for Planetary Environments

The NASA Sun-Earth Connection theme roadmap calls for comparative study of how the planets, comets, and local interstellar medium (LISM) interact with the Sun and respond to solar variability. Through such a study we advance our understanding of basic physical plasma and gas dynamic processes, thus increasing our predictive capabilities for the terrestrial, planetary, and interplanetary environments where future remote and human exploration will occur. Because the other planets have lacked study initiatives comparable to the terrestrial ITM, LWS, and EOS programs, our understanding of the upper atmospheres and near space environments on these worlds is far less detailed than our knowledge of the Earth. To close this gap we propose a mission to study {\it all) of the solar interacting bodies in our planetary system out to the heliopause with a single remote sensing space observatory, the Solar Connections Observatory for Planetary Environments (SCOPE). SCOPE consists of a binocular EUV/FUV telescope operating from a remote, driftaway orbit that provides sub-arcsecond imaging and broadband medium resolution spectro-imaging over the 55-290 nm bandpass, and high (R>10$^{5}$ resolution H Ly-$\alpha$ emission line profile measurements of small scale planetary and wide field diffuse solar system structures. A key to the SCOPE approach is to include Earth as a primary science target. From its remote vantage point SCOPE will be able to observe auroral emission to and beyond the rotational pole. The other planets and comets will be monitored in long duration campaigns centered when possible on solar opposition when interleaved terrestrial-planet observations can be used to directly compare the response of both worlds to the same solar wind stream and UV radiation field. Using a combination of observations and MHD models, SCOPE will isolate the different controlling parameters in each planet system and gain insight into the underlying physical processes that define the solar connection.

Oliversen, Ronald J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Solar wind control of the distant magnetotail: ISEE 3

During a 40-day period in 1983, International Sun Earth Explorer 3 (ISEE 3) was located about 225 R(sub E) behind the Earth and remained within 12 R(sub E) of the nominal tail axis. During this time the spacecraft spent at least 70% of its time in the magnetotail with occasional excursions into the magnetosheath. However, during five geomagnetically distrubed intervals of 1 - 3 days duration during this period, ISEE 3 remained within the magnetosheath for extended intervals, even when it was very near the center of an average tail. Simultaneous observations of the solar wind direction and thermal pressure suggest that nonradial solar wind flow associated with interacting solar wind streams moves a compressed tail away from the nominal position at these times and explains most of these observations. However, during several few-hour intervals of strongly northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) within these periods, the solar wind is more radial and cannot explain the residence of the spacecraft in the magnetosheath. At these times ISEE 3 seems to be moving back and forth between two regions, one a higher-density, lower-temperature magnetosheathlike region but with density somewhat lower than the normal magnetosheath, the other a lower-density, higher-temperature taillike region but with density higher than the normal tail. Both regions have larger B(sub z) components and B(sub x) components that tend to vary as if the spacecraft were moving from one hemisphere of the tail to the other. It is suggested that the magnetotail at these times of northward IMF consists mostly of field lines that close Earthward of the spacecraft with a narrow remaining tail at 225 R(sub E) waving back and forth across the spacecraft. If relatively rare intervals of long-duration, very northward IMF can eliminate the extended tail, it seems likely that more common, less northward IMF might well have very important, though less drastic, effects on the tail configurations.

Fairfield, D. H.↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Effects of Differential Rotation on the Magnetic Structure of the Solar Corona: MHD Simulations

Coronal holes are magnetically open regions from which the solar wind streams. Magnetic reconnection has been invoked to reconcile the apparently rigid rotation of coronal holes with the differential rotation of magnetic flux in the photosphere. This mechanism might also be relevant to the formation of the slow solar wind, the properties of which seem to indicate an origin from the opening of closed magnetic field lines. We have developed a global MHD model to study the effect of differential rotation on the coronal magnetic field. Starting from a magnetic flux distribution similar to that of Wang et al., which consists of a bipolar magnetic region added to a background dipole field, we applied differential rotation over a period of 5 solar rotations. The evolution of the magnetic field and of the boundaries of coronal holes are in substantial agreement with the findings of Wang et al.. We identified examples of interchange reconnection and other changes of topology of the magnetic field. Possible consequences for the origin of the slow solar wind are also discussed.

Lionello, Roberto↗

NASA NTRS1985

Elemental abundances in corotating events

Large, persistent solar-wind streams in 1973 and 1974 produced corotating interaction regions which accelerated particles to energies of a few MeV/nucleon. The proton to helium ratio (H/He) was remarkably constant at a value (22 + or 5) equal to that in the solar wind (21 + or - 3), suggesting that particles were being accelerated directly out of the solar wind. Preliminary results were presented from a similar study approximately 11 years (i.e., one solar cycle) later. Corotating events have been identified by surveying the solar wind data, energetic particle time-histories and anisotropies. This data was all obtained from the ISEE-3/ICE spacecraft. These events also show H/He ratios similar to that in the solar wind. It is flund that in these cases there is evidence for H/He ratios which are significantly different from that of the solar wind but which are consistent with the range of values found in solar flare events.

Vonrosenvinge, T. T.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Elemental abundances in corotating events

Large, persistent solar-wind streams in 1973 and 1974 produced corotating interaction regions which accelerated particles to energies of a few MeV/nucleon. The proton to helium ratio (H/He) reported was remarkably constant at a value (22 + or - 5) equal to that in the solar wind (32 + or - 3), suggesting that particles were being accelerated directly out of the solar wind. Preliminary results from a similar study approximately 11 years (i.e., one solar cycle) later are reported. Corotating events were identified by surveying the solar wind data, energetic particle time-histories and anisotropies. This data was all obtained from the ISEE-3/ICE spacecraft. These events also show H/He ratios similar to that in the solar wind. In addition, other corotating events were examined at times when solar flare events could have injected particles into the corresponding corotating interaction regions. It was found that in these cases there is evidence for H/He ratios which are significantly different from that of the solar wind but which are consistent with the range of values found in solar flare events.

Vonrosenvinge, T. T.↗

NASA NTRS1986

A disturbance of the ion tail of Comet Halley and the heliospheric structure as observed by Sakigake

In order to study the interaction between the solar wind measured by Sakigake and ion tail disturbances of comet Halley, more than 500 photographs of the comet taken on the ground during this apparition are surveyed. The focus of the present study is the December 31, 1985, event, when various types of disturbances occurred, including an outstanding disconnection event (DE)-like knot. Analysis of the Sakigake/IMF data reveals that comet Halley did not encounter the heliospheric neutral sheet on that day, demanding a new explanation for the DE-like event, different from the Niedner-Brandt model. During this event the comet encountered a high-speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole tongue of the sun. The event can be explained by a dynamic pressure model, according to which the DE-like plasmoid was caused by a sudden increase in the dynamic pressure of the solar wind. A result of the simulation work by Ogino is found to support this interpretation.

Saito, T.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Physics of the Inner Heliosphere 1-10 Rs: Plasma Diagnostics and Models

While the mechanisms responsible for the solar corona and the high-speed solar wind streams are still unknown, model computations offer means of predicting the properties of such mechanisms in light of the empirical constraints currently available. Modeling and data analysis efforts were aimed at understanding the plasma properties of the acceleration of the solar wind, its filamentary nature, and the conditions needed to account for a rapidly accelerating solar wind, reaching its terminal speed within 10 R(sub s). A sequence of models ranging from steady one-fluid descriptions of the solar wind to multi-fluid time-dependent models were developed. Plasma diagnostics evolved from the analysis of data acquired from Skylab to SOHO, and complemented by ground-based observations.

Habbal, Shadia R.↗

NASA NTRS1981

What causes the warp in the heliospheric current sheet

A comparative discussion of the warp in the heliospheric current sheet is presented. Pioneer 10 and 11 data of the interplanetary magnetic field compared with earlier data (Helios 1 and 2) show a good agreement on the phenomenon of the warp; however, the interpretations differ. One theory (Thomas and Smith, 1980) proposes that fast solar wind streams associated with interaction regions may move the current sheet higher to heliospheric latitudes, thus causing the warp; while the earlier theory (1976) adequately explained the phenomenon by using the observed photospheric magnetic field and the Zeeman effect but omitted the solar wind dynamical considerations as part of the computations. It is shown that the Helios data of the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field are in good agreement with the computed location of the current sheet, confirming the earlier theory.

Wilcox, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Solar radio bursts at low frequencies

Properties of solar radio bursts observed by spacecraft at frequencies below several MHz are reviewed. In this frequency range most of the observed bursts are type III events (associated with particles) but several cases of type II emission (associated with shocks) have been reported. The analysis which lead to emission levels of type III solar bursts out to beyond 1 AU from the sun also indicate that the low frequency radiation is observed at the harmonic of the emission region plasma frequency. Simultaneous particle and radio measurements imply that the bursts are generated near the leading edge of impulsive streams of solar electrons with energies extending from several hundred keV to several keV. Recent experiments measuring the direction of arrival of the radio emission allow the exciter particles to be tracked along the interplanetary magnetic field from regions near the sun out to 1 AU.

Fainberg, J.↗