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This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel use and emissions (NO(x), CO, and hydrocarbons) for the commercial aircraft fleet projected to 2020. Global totals of emissions and fuel burn for 2020 are compared to global totals from previous aircraft emission scenario calculations.
Hydrogen, considered a crucial element in the transition towards a sustainable energy future, offers the potential to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. Here, this study explores the viability of hydrogen production using proton exchange membrane water electrolysis (PEMWE) as a key driver of decarbonization within the Vision 2030 framework in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. A first-of-a-kind life cycle assessment (LCA) of electrolytic hydrogen (e-hydrogen) production using PEMWE in the Kingdom is performed. As the hydrogen will be produced in a freshwater scarce region, the inclusion of water desalination processes adds an important dimension to the assessment, reflecting the local context and resource availability. Two main renewable energy scenarios are assessed: solar energy through photovoltaics (PV) and wind energy through onshore turbines. The global warming potential (GWP) results indicate a GHG emissions reduction of up to 95 % compared to the state-of-the-art steam methane reforming process if the electrolysis process is powered exclusively by renewable electricity. The scenarios powered by solar and wind energy result in 3.66 and 0.76 kg CO 2 eq/kg H 2 , respectively. The metal depletion is assessed to consider the requirement of rare materials, with a 7.19 × 10 −2 kg Cu eq/kg H 2 for the solar scenario and 2.82 × 10 −2 kg Cu eq/kg H 2 for the wind scenario. A contribution analysis reveals that the majority of emissions in both scenarios originate from the electricity used for electrolysis, with the electrolyser itself contributing minimally. The absolute impact of the water desalination process is the same in both scenarios; however, it appears more prominent in the wind-powered case due to the significantly lower overall emissions in that scenario. The findings underscore the importance of renewable energy integration and process optimization in minimizing environmental impacts and advancing the sustainability of e-hydrogen production.
We performed a global sensitivity analysis of the Bioenergy Scenario Model (BSM), using Elementary Effects analysis to identify potentially influential factors, with a focus on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. The process was iterative and informed key model changes and updates over the course of the study in addition to identifying the key model inputs that affect the cumulative production of SAF from the present through 2050. More work will be performed to gain deeper insight into the sensitivity of individual pathways as part of our larger efforts to develop a reduced-form version of the BSM.
NASAs Glenn Research Center (GRC) defines and develops advanced technology for high priority national needs in communications technologies for application to aeronautics and space. GRC tasked Computer Networks and Software Inc. (CNS) to examine protocols and architectures for an In-Space Internet Node. CNS has developed a methodology for network reference models to support NASAs four mission areas: Earth Science, Space Science, Human Exploration and Development of Space (REDS), Aerospace Technology. CNS previously developed a report which applied the methodology, to three space Internet-based communications scenarios for future missions. CNS conceptualized, designed, and developed space Internet-based communications protocols and architectures for each of the independent scenarios. GRC selected for further analysis the scenario that involved unicast communications between a Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) International Space Station (ISS) and a ground terminal Internet node via a Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) transfer. This report contains a tradeoff analysis on the selected scenario. The analysis examines the performance characteristics of the various protocols and architectures. The tradeoff analysis incorporates the results of a CNS developed analytical model that examined performance parameters.
A search for the production of a W boson and a Higgs boson through vector boson scattering (VBS) is presented, using CMS data from proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV collected from 2016 to 2018. The integrated luminosity of the data sample is 138 fb −1 . Selected events must be consistent with the presence of two jets originating from VBS, the leptonic decay of the W boson to an electron or muon, possibly also through an intermediate τ lepton, and a Higgs boson decaying into a pair of b quarks, reconstructed as either a single merged jet or two resolved jets. A measurement of the process as predicted by the standard model (SM) is performed alongside a study of beyond-the-SM (BSM) scenarios. The SM analysis sets an observed (expected) 95% cofidence level upper limit of 14.3 (9.9) on the ratio of the measured VBS WH cross section to that expected by the SM. The BSM analysis, conducted within the so-called 𝜅 framework, excludes all scenarios with 𝜆 WZ < 0 that are consistent with current measurements, where 𝜆 WZ = 𝜅 W ∕𝜅 Z and 𝜅 W and 𝜅 Z are the HWW and HZZ coupling modfiers, respectively. The significance of the exclusion is beyond 5 standard deviations, and it is consistent with the SM expectation of 𝜆 WZ = 1.
This work summarizes the findings of a reduced order model (ROM) study performed using Sierra ROM module Pressio_Aria on Sandia National Laboratories' (SNL) Crash-Burn L2 milestone thermal model with pristine geometry. Comparisons are made to full order model (FOM) results for this same Crash-Burn model using Sierra multiphysics module Aria.
The techniques required to produce and validate six detailed task timeline scenarios for crew workload studies are described. Specific emphasis is given to: general aviation single pilot instrument flight rules operations in a high density traffic area; fixed path metering and spacing operations; and comparative workload operation between the forward and aft-flight decks of the NASA terminal control vehicle. The validation efforts also provide a cursory examination of the resultant demand workload based on the operating procedures depicted in the detailed task scenarios.
Use of lightweight composite materials in space and aircraft structure designs is often challenging due to high costs associated with structural certification. Of primary concern in the use of composite structures is durability and damage tolerance. This concern is due to the inherent susceptibility of composite materials to both fabrication and service induced flaws. Due to a lack of general industry accepted analysis tools applicable to composites damage simulation, a certification procedure relies almost entirely on testing. It is this reliance on testing, especially compared to structures comprised of legacy metallic materials where damage simulation tools are available, that can drive costs for using composite materials in aerospace structures. The observation that use of composites can be expensive due to testing requirements is not new and as such, research on analysis tools for simulating damage in composite structures has been occurring for several decades. A convenient approach many researchers/model-developers in this area have taken is to select a specific problem relevant to aerospace structural certification and develop a model that is accurate within that scope. Some examples are open hole tension tests, compression after impact tests, low-velocity impact, damage tolerance of an embedded flaw, and fatigue crack growth to name a few. Based on the premise that running analyses is cheaper than running tests, one motivation that many researchers in this area have is that if generally applicable and reliable damage simulation tools were available the dependence on certification testing could be lessened thereby reducing overall design cost. It is generally accepted that simulation tools if applied in this manner would still need to be thoroughly validated and that composite testing will never be completely replaced by analysis. Research and development is currently occurring at NASA to create numerical damage simulation tools applicable to damage in composites. The Advanced Composites Project (ACP) at NASA Langley has supported the development of composites damage simulation tools in a consortium of aerospace companies with a goal of reducing the certification time of a commercial aircraft by 30%. And while the scope of ACP does not include spacecraft, much of the methodology and simulation capabilities can apply to spacecraft certification in the Space Launch System and Orion programs as well. Some specific applications of composite damage simulation models in a certification program are (1) evaluation of damage during service when maintenance may be difficult or impossible, (2) a tool for early design iterations, (3) gaining insight into a particular damage process and applying this insight towards a test coupon or structural design, and (4) analysis of damage scenarios that are difficult or impossible to recreate in a test. As analysis capabilities improve, these applications and more will become realized resulting in a reduction in cost for use of composites in aerospace vehicles. NASA is engaged in this process from both research and application perspectives. In addition to the background information discussed previously, this presentation covers a look at recent research at NASA in this area and some current/potential applications in the Orion program.
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The results of an analysis of several reboost scenarios for nominal and contingency SS operations during the Phase I assembly sequence are presented. Space Station program requirements on assembly and operational altitudes are outlined, and essential features of the SS reaction control system are described. A nominal reboost strategy designed to meet the current program requirements is presented. In addition, reboost strategies are developed for several contingency scenarios, including one missed STS mission, and an extended STS outage. It is shown that the time-averaged propellant 'cost' of maintaining altitude is greatest for equivalent continuous-thrusting altitude maintenance; it decreases with increasing reboost/rendezvous time interval to an asymptotic minimum value.
Human space exploration is by its very nature an uncertain endeavor. Vehicle reliability, technology development risk, budgetary uncertainty, and launch uncertainty all contribute to stochasticity in an exploration scenario. However, traditional strategic analysis has been done in a deterministic manner, analyzing and optimizing the performance of a series of planned missions. History has shown that exploration scenarios rarely follow such a planned schedule. This paper describes a methodology to integrate deterministic and probabilistic analysis of scenarios in support of human space exploration. Probabilistic strategic analysis is used to simulate "possible" scenario outcomes, based upon the likelihood of occurrence of certain events and a set of pre-determined contingency rules. The results of the probabilistic analysis are compared to the nominal results from the deterministic analysis to evaluate the robustness of the scenario to adverse events and to test and optimize contingency planning.
Cyberattacks against industrial control systems have increased over the last decade, making it more critical than ever for system owners to have the tools necessary to understand the cyber resilience of their systems. However, existing tools are often qualitative, subject matter expertise-driven, or highly generic, making thorough, data-driven cyber resilience analysis challenging. The ADROC project proposed to develop a platform to enable efficient, repeatable, data-driven cyber resilience analysis for cyber-physical systems. The approach consists of two phases of modeling: computationally efficient math modeling and high-fidelity emulations. The first phase allows for scenarios of low concern to be quickly filtered out, conserving resources available for analysis. The second phase supports more detailed scenario analysis, which is more predictive of real-world systems. Data extracted from experiments is used to calculate cyber resilience metrics. ADROC then ranks scenarios based on these metrics, enabling prioritization of system resources to improve cyber resilience.
The DEEPEN (DE-risking Exploration for geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments) project was a multi-laboratory, international effort to reduce uncertainty and improve resource characterization in superhot geothermal systems. Building on this foundation, this work advances open-source tools designed to lower the exploration risk and cost of superhot geothermal projects while promoting transparency, reproducibility, and efficiency in exploration workflows. These tools are being tested at two key sites: (1) the Nesjavellir Geothermal Area in Iceland, where the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project (IDDP) will drill its third well, and (2) Newberry Volcano in Oregon, USA, where Mazama Energy will pilot the first superhot enhanced geothermal system (EGS). A major outcome is the creation of a modular, open-source Python framework for play fairway analysis (PFA) in 2D and 3D, called geoPFA. The PFA workflow has been expanded to produce pseudo conceptual models, and will soon be refined to assess reservoir components through integration with the thermo-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical (THMC) simulator TReactMech, to enable iterative coupling between PFA and THMC models, improving characterization of superhot systems. All three of the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project's production scenarios were analyzed via this framework: (1) a superhot deep injection well paired with conventional production wells at Nesjavellir, (2) a superhot deep production well at Nesjavellir, and (3) superhot enhanced geothermal system at Newberry Volcano. This analysis provides useful insights around conceptual modeling of these production scenarios, helping to inform decisions around which scenario is best suited for which types of environments.
The DEEPEN (DE-risking Exploration for geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments) project was a multi-laboratory, international effort to reduce uncertainty and improve resource characterization in superhot geothermal systems. Building on this foundation, this work advances open-source tools designed to lower the exploration risk and cost of superhot geothermal projects while promoting transparency, reproducibility, and efficiency in exploration workflows. These tools are being tested at two key sites: (1) the Nesjavellir Geothermal Area in Iceland, where the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project (IDDP) will drill its third well, and (2) Newberry Volcano in Oregon, USA, where Mazama Energy will pilot the first superhot enhanced geothermal system (EGS). A major outcome is the creation of a modular, open-source Python framework for play fairway analysis (PFA) in 2D and 3D, called geoPFA. The PFA workflow has been expanded to produce pseudo conceptual models, and will soon be refined to assess reservoir components through integration with the thermo-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical (THMC) simulator TReactMech, to enable iterative coupling between PFA and THMC models, improving characterization of superhot systems. All three of the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project's production scenarios were analyzed via this framework: (1) a superhot deep injection well paired with conventional production wells at Nesjavellir, (2) a superhot deep production well at Nesjavellir, and (3) superhot enhanced geothermal system at Newberry Volcano. This analysis provides useful insights around conceptual modeling of these production scenarios, helping to inform decisions around which scenario is best suited for which types of environments.
This paper describes a navigation error covariance analysis of two scenarios derived from the Mars Observer mission and the planned Mars Environmental SURvey (MESUR) Pathfinder mission, respectively. The analysis was performed to establish the potential navigational performance of the X-band tracking system in NASA's Deep Space Network, and to evaluate the sensitivity of the predicted performance to variations in the quantity of data acquired, the ground system error modeling assumptions, and data reduction schemes. The simulated data arcs used in the analysis are representative of the actual data arcs that will be used to predict the aim point for the Mars orbit insertion maneuver, in the case of Mars Observer, and the interplanetary trajectory aim point corresponding to the target Mars landing site in the case of MESUR Pathfinder. The results indicate that with a suitable sequential data reduction scheme and accurate calibrations of instrumentation, transmission media, and platform model parameters, navigation accuracies of 5 to 15 km (1 sigma) can be achieved, equivalent to 15 to 40 nrad in geocentric angle uncertainty.
This paper describes a navigation error convariance analysis of two scenarios derived from the Mars Observer mission and the planned Mars Environmental Survey (MESUR) Pathfinder mission, respectively. The analysis was performed to establish the potential navigational performance of the X-band tracking system in NASA's Deep Space Network, and to evaluate the sensitivity of the Predicted performance to variations in the quantity of data acquired, the ground system error modeling assumptions, and data reduction schemes.
This study augments the ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Study III (AIMS III) by quantifying changes to air quality and human health that result from its renewable integration and transmission interconnection scenarios. Performing this analysis requires translation of the changes in projected generation from different power sector fuel sources in the AIMS III scenarios to changes in air pollutant emissions, developing what is known as an emissions inventory for each scenario and year evaluated. An emissions inventory represents who emits air pollutants, from where the pollutants are emitted, when, and how much of which air pollutants are emitted. With the assistance of the ASEAN Centre for Energy and leveraging the best available in-region public data sources, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) team compiled a detailed inventory of power plants in the ASEAN region, mapping their PM 2.5 , sulfur oxides (SOx), and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions. A new, first-of-its-kind, and user-friendly global air quality model, Global InMAP (Thakrar et al. 2022), is then used to transform the inventory of changes in emissions to changes in concentration of fine particulate matter. Global InMAP then maps the location of human populations in ASEAN countries to calculate humans' exposure to PM 2.5 and estimate excess PM 2.5 -caused mortality attributable to thermal generation sources, as modeled in the AIMS III scenarios.
Exposure to outdoor air pollution is the largest environmental risk factor for death and disease worldwide, associated with millions of cases of excess deaths (mortality) each year. Although there are many pollutants in the air that affect our health, the most important class of pollutants is fine particulate matter, PM 2.5 , which are airborne particles of diameter ≤2.5 micrometers (µm). These particles are small enough to deposit deep in the respiratory system where they can then enter the bloodstream, traveling and causing damage to other bodily systems. Exposure to outdoor (ambient) PM 2.5 has been found to be the most important environmental risk factor for mortality in Southeast Asia, associated with 130,000 - 320,000 excess deaths in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries in 2019. Southeast Asia, especially its mega-cities, but also other areas, has some of the worst air quality in the world. Almost all human activity emits air pollutants. Fine particulate matter is both directly emitted and formed in the atmosphere through chemical reactions, the latter of which requires modeling to predict. Power generation is one of the major sources of air pollutants that lead to elevated concentrations of fine particulate matter, including in Southeast Asia. Fossil fuel combustion for power generation, especially coal but also diesel, is the main source of air pollutant emissions from power generation. While natural gas burns cleaner than coal or diesel, in the quantities combusted for power generation in Southeast Asia, it is also a significant emitter. This study augments the ASEAN Interconnection Masterplan Study III (AIMS III) by quantifying changes to air quality and human health that result from its renewable integration and transmission interconnection scenarios. Performing this analysis requires translation of the changes in projected generation from different power sector fuel sources in the AIMS III scenarios to changes in air pollutant emissions, developing what's known as an emissions inventory for each scenario and year evaluated. We then use for the first time a new global, reduced-complexity air quality model to transform the changes in emissions to changes in air pollutant concentration of the deadliest air pollutant for human health, fine particulate matter (or PM 2.5 ). The air quality model, Global InMAP, then utilizes the location of human population in ASEAN countries to calculate exposure to PM 2.5 concentration changes and translates that to estimates of excess mortality attributable to the AIMS III scenarios.