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Generating Older Adult Multimorbidity Trajectories Using Various Comorbidity Indices and Calculation Methods

Older adult multimorbidity trajectories are helpful for understanding the current and future health patterns of aging populations. The construction of multimorbidity trajectories from comorbidity index scores will help inform public health and clinical interventions targeting those individuals that are on unhealthy trajectories. Investigators have used many different techniques when creating multimorbidity trajectories in prior literature, and no standard way has emerged. This study compares and contrasts multimorbidity trajectories constructed from various methods. We describe the difference between aging trajectories constructed with the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and Elixhauser Comorbidity Index (ECI). We also explore the differences between acute (single year) and chronic (cumulative) derivations of CCI and ECI scores. Social determinants of health can affect disease burden over time; thus, our models include income, race/ethnicity, and sex differences. We use group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) to estimate multimorbidity trajectories for 86,909 individuals aged 66–75 in 1992 using Medicare claims data collected over the following 21 years. We identify low-chronic disease and high-chronic disease trajectories in all 8 generated trajectory models. Additionally, all 8 models satisfied prior established statistical diagnostic criteria for well-performing GBTM models. Clinicians may use these trajectories to identify patients on an unhealthy path and prompt a possible intervention that may shift the patient to a healthier trajectory.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Describing patterns of familial cancer risk in subfertile men using population pedigree data

STUDY QUESTION Can we simultaneously assess risk for multiple cancers to identify familial multicancer patterns in families of azoospermic and severely oligozoospermic men? SUMMARY ANSWER Here, distinct familial cancer patterns were observed in the azoospermia and severe oligozoospermia cohorts, suggesting heterogeneity in familial cancer risk by both type of subfertility and within subfertility type. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Subfertile men and their relatives show increased risk for certain cancers including testicular, thyroid, and pediatric. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION A retrospective cohort of subfertile men (N = 786) was identified and matched to fertile population controls (N = 5674). Family members out to third-degree relatives were identified for both subfertile men and fertile population controls (N = 337 754). The study period was 1966–2017. Individuals were censored at death or loss to follow-up, loss to follow-up occurred if they left Utah during the study period. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS Azoospermic (0 × 10 6 /mL) and severely oligozoospermic (<1.5 × 10 6 /mL) men were identified in the Subfertility Health and Assisted Reproduction and the Environment cohort (SHARE). Subfertile men were age- and sex-matched 5:1 to fertile population controls and family members out to third-degree relatives were identified using the Utah Population Database (UPDB). Cancer diagnoses were identified through the Utah Cancer Registry. Families containing ≥10 members with ≥1 year of follow-up 1966–2017 were included (azoospermic: N = 426 families, 21 361 individuals; oligozoospermic: N = 360 families, 18 818 individuals). Unsupervised clustering based on standardized incidence ratios for 34 cancer phenotypes in the families was used to identify familial multicancer patterns; azoospermia and severe oligospermia families were assessed separately. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE Compared to control families, significant increases in cancer risks were observed in the azoospermia cohort for five cancer types: bone and joint cancers hazard ratio (HR) = 2.56 (95% CI = 1.48–4.42), soft tissue cancers HR = 1.56 (95% CI = 1.01–2.39), uterine cancers HR = 1.27 (95% CI = 1.03–1.56), Hodgkin lymphomas HR = 1.60 (95% CI = 1.07–2.39), and thyroid cancer HR = 1.54 (95% CI = 1.21–1.97). Among severe oligozoospermia families, increased risk was seen for three cancer types: colon cancer HR = 1.16 (95% CI = 1.01–1.32), bone and joint cancers HR = 2.43 (95% CI = 1.30–4.54), and testis cancer HR = 2.34 (95% CI = 1.60–3.42) along with a significant decrease in esophageal cancer risk HR = 0.39 (95% CI = 0.16–0.97). Thirteen clusters of familial multicancer patterns were identified in families of azoospermic men, 66% of families in the azoospermia cohort showed population-level cancer risks, however, the remaining 12 clusters showed elevated risk for 2-7 cancer types. Several of the clusters with elevated cancer risks also showed increased odds of cancer diagnoses at young ages with six clusters showing increased odds of adolescent and young adult (AYA) diagnosis [odds ratio (OR) = 1.96–2.88] and two clusters showing increased odds of pediatric cancer diagnosis (OR = 3.64–12.63). Within the severe oligozoospermia cohort, 12 distinct familial multicancer clusters were identified. All 12 clusters showed elevated risk for 1–3 cancer types. An increase in odds of cancer diagnoses at young ages was also seen in five of the severe oligozoospermia familial multicancer clusters, three clusters showed increased odds of AYA diagnosis (OR = 2.19–2.78) with an additional two clusters showing increased odds of a pediatric diagnosis (OR = 3.84–9.32). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION Although this study has many strengths, including population data for family structure, cancer diagnoses and subfertility, there are limitations. First, semen measures are not available for the sample of fertile men. Second, there is no information on medical comorbidities or lifestyle risk factors such as smoking status, BMI, or environmental exposures. Third, all of the subfertile men included in this study were seen at a fertility clinic for evaluation. These men were therefore a subset of the overall population experiencing fertility problems and likely represent those with the socioeconomic means for evaluation by a physician. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS This analysis leveraged unique population-level data resources, SHARE and the UPDB, to describe novel multicancer clusters among the families of azoospermic and severely oligozoospermic men. Distinct overall multicancer risk and familial multicancer patterns were observed in the azoospermia and severe oligozoospermia cohorts, suggesting heterogeneity in cancer risk by type of subfertility and within subfertility type. Describing families with similar cancer risk patterns provides a new avenue to increase homogeneity for focused gene discovery and environmental risk factor studies. Such discoveries will lead to more accurate risk predictions and improved counseling for patients and their families. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This work was funded by GEMS: Genomic approach to connecting Elevated germline Mutation rates with male infertility and Somatic health (Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD): R01 HD106112). The authors have no conflicts of interest relevant to this work.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Targeted genetic manipulation and yeast-like evolutionary genomics in the green alga Auxenochlorella

Auxenochlorella spp. are diploid oleaginous green algae whose streamlined genomes can be readily manipulated by homologous recombination, making them highly amenable to discovery research and bioengineering. Vegetatively diploid organisms experience specific evolutionary phenomena, including allodiploid hybridization, mitotic recombination, loss-of-heterozygosity, and aneuploidy; however, studies of these forces have largely focused on yeasts. Here, we present a telomere-to-telomere phased diploid genome assembly of Auxenochlorella UTEX 250-A (haploid length 22 Mb) and introduce a genetic toolkit for site-specific manipulation of the nuclear genome in multiple strains, featuring several selectable markers, inducible promoters, and fluorescent reporters for protein localization. UTEX 250-A is an allodiploid hybrid of Auxenochlorella protothecoides and Auxenochlorella symbiontica, two species differentiated by extensive chromosomal rearrangements. UTEX 250-A haplotypes are a mosaic of each parental species following mitotic recombination, and two chromosomes are trisomic. Loss-of-heterozygosity events are pervasive across Auxenochlorella and can evolve rapidly in the laboratory. High-quality structural annotation yielded ∼7,500 genes per haplotype. Auxenochlorella have experienced gene family loss and reduction, including core photosynthesis genes, and exhibit periodic adenine and cytosine methylation at promoters and gene bodies, respectively. Approximately 10% of genes, especially those involved in DNA repair and sex, overlap antisense long noncoding RNAs, which may participate in a regulatory mechanism. We demonstrate the utility of Auxenochlorella for fundamental research by knockout of a chlorophyll biosynthesis enzyme, and confirm one trisomy by allele-specific transformation. These results demonstrate the generality of several evolutionary forces associated with vegetative diploidy and provide a foundation for the use of Auxenochlorella as a reference organism.

CHL27↗

Improved age- and gender-specific radiation risk models applied on cohorts of Swedish patients

The aim of this study is to implement lifetime attributable risk (LAR) predictions for radiation induced cancers for Swedish cohorts of patients of various age and sex, undergoing diagnostic investigations by nuclear medicine methods. Methods: Calculations are performed on Swedish groups of patients with Paget's disease and with bone metastases from prostatic cancer and diagnosed with bone scintigraphy with an administration of 500 MBq 99m Tc-phosphonate. Results: The inclusion of patient survival rates into the calculations lowers the induced radiation cancer risk, as it takes into account that cohorts of patients have shorter predicted survival times than the general population. Conclusion: LAR estimations could be valuable for referring physicians, nuclear medicine physicians, nurses, medical physicists, radiologists, and oncologists and as well as ethical committees for risk estimates for specific subgroups of patients. Caution is however advised with respect to application of LAR predictions to individuals (because of individual sensitivities, circumstances, etc.).

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Dosimetry and cancer risk estimations for different radiation protection solutions at decommissioning a contaminated nuclear power plant site

Contaminated sediments originating from dredging activities in a nuclear power plant site were placed in a pond, which has to be taken into consideration during the future decommissioning process. The sediments have to be handled to free release the site. The radionuclides Co-60 and Cs-137 were identified and the activity concentrations (Bq/kg) were quantified in the range of 10–6000 and 5–50 Bq kg -1 , respectively. The absorbed dose rate to individuals of various ages and sex present at the site of the dry pond area was estimated. The radiological impact in terms of lifetime attributable risk (LAR) and effective dose were calculated. For a 30-year-old male exposed during one year without any action regarding the sediments in the dried out pond, the LAR was predicted to be 0.0027, which recalculated to effective dose corresponds to 7.6 mSv year -1 . The calculations show that countermeasures will be needed for the contaminated site.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

The emergence and transmission dynamics of HIV-1 CRF07_BC in Mainland China

A total of 1155 partial pol gene sequences of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 CRF07_BC were sampled between 1997 and 2015, spanning 13 provinces in Mainland China and risk groups [heterosexual, injecting drug users (IDU), and men who have sex with men (MSM)] to investigate the evolution, adaptation, spatiotemporal and risk group dynamics, migration patterns, and protein structure of HIV-1 CRF07_BC. Due to the unequal distribution of sequences across time, location, and risk group in the complete dataset (‘full1155’), subsampling methods were used. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analysis as well as discrete trait analysis of geographical location and risk group were carried out. To study mutations of a cluster of HIV-1 CRF07_BC (CRF07-1), we performed a comparative analysis of this cluster to the other CRF07_BC sequences (‘backbone_295’) and mapped the mutations observed in the respective protein structure. Our findings showed that HIV-1 CRF07_BC most likely originated among IDU in Yunnan Province between October 1992 to July 1993 [95 per cent hightest posterior density (HPD): May 1989–August 1995] and that IDU in Yunnan Province and MSM in Guangdong Province likely served as the viral sources during the early and more recent spread in Mainland China. We also revealed that HIV-1 CRF07-1 has been spreading for roughly 20 years and continues to cause local transmission in Mainland China and worldwide. Overall, our study sheds light on the dynamics of HIV-1 CRF07_BC distribution patterns in Mainland China. Our research may also be useful in formulating public health policies aimed at controlling acquired immune deficiency syndrome in Mainland China and globally.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Osteocalcin binds to a GPRC6A Venus fly trap allosteric site to positively modulate GPRC6A signaling

GPRC6A, a member of the Family C G-protein coupled receptors, regulates energy metabolism and sex hormone production and is activated by diverse ligands, including cations, L-amino acids, the osteocalcin (Ocn) peptide and the steroid hormone testosterone. We sought a structural framework for the ability of multiple distinct classes of ligands to active GPRC6A. We created a structural model of GPRC6A using Alphafold2. Using this model we explored a putative orthosteric ligand binding site in the bilobed Venus fly trap (VFT) domain of GPRC6A and two positive allosteric modulator (PAM) sites, one in the VFT and the other in the 7 transmembrane (7TM) domain. We provide evidence that Ocn peptides act as a PAM for GPRC6A by binding to a site in the VFT that is distinct from the orthosteric site for calcium and L-amino acids. In agreement with this prediction, alternatively spliced GPRC6A isoforms 2 and 3, which lack regions of the VFT, and mutations in the computationally predicted Ocn binding site, K352E and H355P, prevent Ocn activation of GPRC6A. These observations explain how dissimilar ligands activate GPRC6A and set the stage to develop novel molecules to activate and inhibit this previously poorly understood receptor.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Association of human T-cell leukemia virus type 1 with prevalent rheumatoid arthritis among atomic bomb survivors: A cross-sectional study

Previous studies have suggested that human T-cell leukemia virus type 1 (HTLV-1) might act as a pathogen in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), but epidemiological evidence of an association is scarce. We measured anti-HTLV-1 antibodies among Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors to determine whether HTLV-1 is related to RA and whether radiation exposure is associated with HTLV-1 and RA prevalence. This is a cross-sectional study among atomic bomb survivors who participated in biennial health examinations from 2006 to 2010. Serum levels of anti-HTLV-1 antibodies were measured using a chemiluminescent enzyme immunoassay and confirmed by Western blotting. Association between HTLV-1 and RA was analyzed by a logistic regression model. Of 2091 participants (women 61.5%; median age, 73 years), 215 (10.3%) had anti-HTLV-1 antibodies. HTLV-1 prevalence was higher among women (13.1% vs 5.8%; P<.001). Twenty-two participants (1.1%) were diagnosed with RA. HTLV-1 prevalence among RA participants was significantly higher than that among non-RA participants (27.3% vs 10.1%; P=.020). After adjustment for age, sex, and hepatitis C virus infection, HTLV-1 was significantly associated with prevalent RA (odds ratio, 2.89; 95% confidence interval, 1.06, 7.03). There was no association between radiation dose and either the prevalence of HTLV-1 or RA. This study, among a well-defined group of atomic bomb survivors, suggests that HTLV-1 is associated with RA. Abbreviations: AHS = Adult Health Study, ATL/ATLL = adult T cell leukemia/lymphoma, bioDMARDs = biological disease modifying antirheumatic drugs, CCP = cyclic citrullinated peptide, CI = confidence interval, CLEIA = chemiluminescent enzyme immunoassay, CRP = C-reactive protein, csDMARDs = conventional synthetic disease modifying antirheumatic drugs, Gy = gray, HCV = hepatitis C virus, HTLV-1 = human T-cell leukemia virus type 1, IF = immunofluorescent, RA = rheumatoid arthritis, RERF = Radiation Effects Research Foundation, RF = rheumatoid factor, SS = Sjogren syndrome.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Expanding Medicaid to Reduce Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission in Houston, Texas

Context: Medicaid expansion has been nationally shown to improve engagement in the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment and prevention continua, which are vital steps to stopping the HIV epidemic. New HIV infections in the United States are disproportionately concentrated among young Black men who have sex with men (YBMSM). Houston, TX, is the most populous city in the Southern United States with a racially/ethnically diverse population that is located in 1 of 11 US states that have not yet expanded Medicaid coverage as of 2021. Methods: An agent-based model that incorporated the sexual networks of YBMSM was used to simulate improved antiretroviral treatment and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) engagement through Medicaid expansion in Houston, TX. Analyses considered the HIV incidence (number of new infections and as a rate metric) among YBMSM over the next 10 years under Medicaid expansion as the primary outcome. Additional scenarios, involving viral suppression and PrEP uptake above the projected levels achieved under Medicaid expansion, were also simulated. Results: The baseline model projected an HIV incidence rate of 4.96 per 100 person years (py) and about 368 new annual HIV infections in the 10th year. Improved HIV treatment and prevention continua engagement under Medicaid expansion resulted in a 14.9% decline in the number of annual new HIV infections in the 10th year. Increasing viral suppression by an additional 15% and PrEP uptake by 30% resulted in a 44.0% decline in new HIV infections in the 10th year, and a 27.1% decline in cumulative infections across the 10 years of the simulated intervention. Findings: Simulation results indicate that Medicaid expansion has the potential to reduce HIV incidence among YBMSM in Houston. Achieving HIV elimination objectives, however, might require additional effective measures to increase antiretroviral treatment and PrEP uptake beyond the projected improvements under expanded Medicaid.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Effects of social structure and management on risk of disease establishment in wild pigs

Contact heterogeneity among hosts determines invasion and spreading dynamics of infectious disease, thus its characterization is essential for identifying effective disease control strategies. Yet, little is known about the factors shaping contact networks in many 28 wildlife species and how wildlife management actions might affect contact networks. Wild pigs in North America are an invasive, socially-structured species that pose a health concern for domestic swine given their ability to transmit numerous devastating diseases 2 such as African swine fever (ASF). Using proximity loggers and GPS data from 48 wild pigs in Florida and South Carolina, USA, we employed a probabilistic framework to estimate weighted contact networks. We determined the effects of sex, social group, and spatial distribution (monthly home range overlap and distance) on wild pig contact. We also estimated the impacts of management-induced perturbations on contact and inferred their effects on ASF establishment in wild pigs with simulation. Social group membership was the primary factor influencing contacts. Between-group contacts depended primarily on space use characteristics, with fewer contacts among groups separated by >2 km and no contacts among groups >4 km apart within a month. Modeling ASF dynamics on the contact network demonstrated that indirect contacts resulting from baiting (a typical method of attracting wild pigs or game species to a site to enhance recreational hunting) increased the risk of disease establishment by ~33% relative to direct contact. Low-intensity population reduction (<5.9% of the population) had no detectable impact on contact structure but reduced predicted ASF establishment risk relative to no population reduction. Here, we demonstrate an approach for understanding the relative role of spatial, social, and individual-level characteristics in shaping contact networks and predicting their effects on disease establishment risk, thus providing insight for optimizing disease control in spatially- and socially-structured wildlife species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Signatures of cysteine oxidation on muscle structural and contractile proteins are associated with physical performance and muscle function in older adults: Study of Muscle, Mobility and Aging (SOMMA)

Oxidative stress is considered a contributor to declining muscle function and mobility during aging; however, the underlying molecular mechanisms remain poorly described. We hypothesized that greater levels of cysteine (Cys) oxidation on muscle proteins are associated with decreased measures of mobility. Herein, we applied a novel redox proteomics approach to measure reversible protein Cys oxidation in vastus lateralis muscle biopsies collected from 56 subjects in the Study of Muscle, Mobility and Aging (SOMMA), a community-based cohort study of individuals aged 70 years and older. We tested whether levels of Cys oxidation on key muscle proteins involved in muscle structure and contraction were associated with muscle function (leg power and strength), walking speed, and fitness (VO 2 peak on cardiopulmonary exercise testing) using linear regression models adjusted for age, sex, and body weight. Higher oxidation levels of select nebulin Cys sites were associated with lower VO 2 peak, while greater oxidation of myomesin-1, myomesin-2, and nebulin Cys sites was associated with slower walking speed. Higher oxidation of Cys sites in key proteins such as myomesin-2, alpha-actinin-2, and skeletal muscle alpha-actin were associated with lower leg power and strength. We also observed an unexpected correlation (R = 0.48) between a higher oxidation level of eight Cys sites in alpha-actinin-3 and stronger leg power. Despite this observation, the results generally support the hypothesis that Cys oxidation of muscle proteins impairs muscle power and strength, walking speed, and cardiopulmonary fitness with aging.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Illuminating otoliths: New insights for life history of Balistes triggerfishes

Our understanding of fish life-history strategies is informed by key biological processes, such as growth, survival/mortality, recruitment and sexual maturation, used to characterize fish stocks (populations). Characterizing the life-history traits of fish populations requires the application of accurate age estimation for managed species. Grey triggerfish Balistes capriscus and queen triggerfish Balistes vetula are important reef-associated species for commercial and recreational fisheries in the Atlantic Ocean. Both species exhibit a unique reproductive strategy for large-bodied fisheries-targeted reef fishes in that they are nesting benthic spawners and invest substantial energy in defence and care of their benthic nests and fertilized eggs. Until recently, our understanding of the life-history strategies of triggerfishes assumed the main method used to obtain age estimates, increments counted from thin sections of the first dorsal spine, provided an accurate characterization of population age-based parameters. However, results from bomb radiocarbon validation studies on the two Balistes species demonstrated that spines do not provide accurate ages, but sagittal otoliths do. The main goal of the current study was to provide an updated understanding for triggerfish life-history strategies by using otolith-based age estimates to characterize population age structure and growth for grey triggerfish and queen triggerfish from waters of the south-eastern U.S. Atlantic. The current study is the first to report on sex-specific age and growth information for grey triggerfish using the Δ 14 C-validated otolith-based age estimation method and the results indicate that the previous characterization of Balistes species as exhibiting moderately rapid growth and as relatively short-lived, based on spine-derived age estimates, are flawed. Otolith-based ages indicated that grey triggerfish and queen triggerfish are moderately slow-growing and long-lived species, attaining maximum ages of 21 and 40 years, respectively. Management efforts for triggerfishes should evaluate these new insights and incorporate the results of otolith-based age estimation into future population monitoring efforts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Spatial and temporal patterns in age structure of Golden Eagles wintering in eastern North America

The behavior of wildlife varies seasonally, and that variation can have substantial demographic consequences. This is especially true for long-distance migrants where the use of landscapes varies by season and, sometimes, age cohort. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that distributional patterns of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) wintering in eastern North America are age-structured (i.e., birds of similar ages winter together) through the analysis of 370,307 images collected by motion-sensitive trail cameras set over bait during the winters of 2012–2013 and 2013–2014. At nine sites with sufficient data for analysis, we documented 145 eagle visits in 2012–2013 and 146 in 2013–2014. We found significant between-year variation in age structure of wintering eastern Golden Eagles, driven largely by annual differences in the proportion of first-winter birds. However, although many other species show spatial structure in wintering behavior, our analysis revealed no latitudinal organization among age cohorts of wintering eastern Golden Eagles. The lack of age-related latitudinal segregation in wintering behavior does not exclude the possibility that these eagles have sex-based or other types of dominance hierarchies that could result in spatial or temporal segregation. Alternatively, other mechanisms such as food availability or habitat structure may determine the distribution and abundance of Golden Eagles in winter.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Intrinsic and extrinsic factors interact during development to influence telomere length in a long‐lived reptile

Abstract The mechanisms connecting environmental conditions to plasticity in biological aging trajectories are fundamental to understanding individual variation in functional traits and life history. Recent findings suggest that telomere biology is especially dynamic during early life stages and has long‐term consequences for subsequent reproduction and survival. However, our current understanding is mostly derived from studies investigating ecological and anthropogenic factors separately, leaving the effects of complex environmental interactions unresolved. American alligators ( Alligator mississippiensis ) are long‐lived apex predators that rely on incubation temperature during a discrete period during development and endocrine cues to determine sex, making them especially vulnerable to current climatic variability and exposure to anthropogenic contaminants interfering with hormone function. Here, we combine field studies with a factorial design to understand how the developmental environment, along with intrinsic biological variation contribute to persistent telomere variation. We found that exposure to a common endocrine disrupting contaminant, DDE, affects telomere length, but that the directionality is highly dependent upon incubation temperature. Variation in hatchling growth, underlies a strong clutch effect. We also assess concentrations of a panel of glucocorticoid hormones and find that contaminant exposure elicits an increase in circulating glucocorticoids. Consistent with emerging evidence linking stress and aging trajectories, GC levels also appear to trend with shorter telomere length. Thus, we add support for a mechanistic link between contaminants and glucocorticoid signalling, which interacts with ecological aspects of the developmental environment to alter telomere dynamics.

Bae, Junsoo↗

Antigenic Characterization and Pandemic Risk Assessment of North American H1 Influenza A Viruses Circulating in Swine

The first pandemic of the 21st century was caused by an H1N1 influenza A virus (IAV) introduced from pigs into humans, highlighting the importance of swine as reservoirs for pandemic viruses. Two major lineages of swine H1 circulate in North America: the 1A classical swine lineage (including that of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic) and the 1B human seasonal-like lineage. Here, we investigated the evolution of these H1 IAV lineages in North American swine and their potential pandemic risk. We assessed the antigenic distance between the HA of representative swine H1 and human seasonal vaccine strains (1978 to 2015) in hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays using a panel of monovalent antisera raised in pigs. Antigenic cross-reactivity varied by strain but was associated with genetic distance. Generally, the swine 1A lineage viruses that seeded the 2009 H1 pandemic were antigenically most similar to the H1 pandemic vaccine strains, with the exception of viruses in the genetic clade 1A.1.1.3, which had a two-amino acid deletion mutation near the receptor-binding site, which dramatically reduced antibody recognition. The swine 1B lineage strains, which arose from previously circulating (pre-2009 pandemic) human seasonal viruses, were more antigenically similar to pre-2009 human seasonal H1 vaccine viruses than post-2009 strains. Human population immunity was measured by cross-reactivity in HI assays to representative swine H1 strains. There was a broad range of titers against each swine strain that was not associated with age, sex, or location. However, there was almost no cross-reactivity in human sera to the 1A.1.1.3 and 1B.2.1 genetic clades of swine viruses, and the 1A.1.1.3 and 1B.2.1 clades were also the most antigenically distant to the human vaccine strains. Our data demonstrate that the antigenic distances of representative swine strains from human vaccine strains represent an important part of the rational assessment of swine IAV for zoonotic risk research and pandemic preparedness prioritization.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Excess deaths reveal unequal impact of COVID-19 in Ecuador

Latin America has struggled to control the transmission of COVID-19. Comparison of excess death (ED) rates during the pandemic reveals that Ecuador is among the highest impacted countries. In this analysis, we update our previous findings with the most complete all-cause mortality records available for 2020, disaggregated by sex, age, ethnicity and geography. Our study shows that in 2020, Ecuador had a 64% ED rate (95% CI 63% to 65%) or 64% more deaths than expected. Men had a higher ED rate, 75% (95% CI 73% to 76%), than women’s 51% (95% CI 49% to 52%), and this pattern of higher EDs for men than women held for most age groups. The only exception was the 20–29 age group, where women had 19% more deaths, compared to 10% more deaths for men, but that difference is not statistically significant. The analysis provides striking evidence of the lack of COVID-19 diagnostic testing in Ecuador: the confirmed COVID-19 deaths in 2020 accounted for only 21% of total EDs. Our significant finding is that indigenous populations, who typically account for about 5% of the deaths, show almost four times the ED rate of the majority mestizo group. Indigenous women in each age group have higher ED rates than the general population and, in ages between 20 and 49 years, they have higher ED rates than indigenous men. Indigenous women in the age group 20–29 years had an ED rate of 141%, which is commensurate to the ED rate of indigenous women older than 40 years.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Predictive analytics to direct clinical attention to complex patients with elevated suicide risk: enhancement of the Veterans Health Administration REACH VET model

Suicide is a major public health concern, particularly among Veterans. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employs the Recovery Engagement and Coordination for Health–Veterans Enhanced Treatment (REACH VET) model to prioritise high-risk patients for targeted clinical attention. REACH VET 1.0 (RV 1.0) was developed on 2008–2011 data. To reflect changes in clinical practice and populations, VHA updated it to REACH VET 2.0 (RV 2.0). This study describes its development and validation. RV 2.0 used longitudinal data from 7,248,170 VHA patients (4,967 suicide deaths) in 2018–2019, with 650 time-varying demographic, clinical and area-level predictors derived from a 2-year lookback (2016–2019). An ensemble of Elastic-Net logistic regression models was trained on 2018 data and evaluated monthly at the population level in 2019, focusing on the top 0.1% intervention risk tier. Analyses assessed model discrimination, suicide detection, risk concentration, subgroup consistency (sex, age and race/ethnicity) and performance relative to RV 1.0 using the same percentile-based risk strata. RV 2.0 outperformed RV 1.0 across all risk strata, with better discrimination (C-statistic 0.76 vs 0.69) and consistent performance across demographic subgroups. Within the top 0.1% of predicted risk, RV 2.0 identified more deaths, higher suicide rates and greater mortality risk concentration both when averaged across the 12 monthly 2019 test sets (5.6 vs 3.6; 83.6 vs 53.7 per 100,000 person-years; 21.0 vs 14.1) and when annualised for 2019 (67 vs 43; 2.7% vs 1.7%; 1,003 vs 644 per 100,000 person-years; 26.7 vs 17.1). RV 2.0 improves suicide risk stratification among Veterans, demonstrating better performance and consistent prediction across subgroups and highlighting the need for regular model updates and evaluation.

Peluso, Alina [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗

Comprehensive compartmental model and calibration algorithm for the study of clinical implications of the population-level spread of COVID-19: a study protocol

The complex dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has made obtaining reliable long-term forecasts of the disease progression difficult. Simple mechanistic models with deterministic parameters are useful for short-term predictions but have ultimately been unsuccessful in extrapolating the trajectory of the pandemic because of unmodelled dynamics and the unrealistic level of certainty that is assumed in the predictions. We propose a 22-compartment epidemiological model that includes compartments not previously considered concurrently, to account for the effects of vaccination, asymptomatic individuals, inadequate access to hospital care, post-acute COVID-19 and recovery with long-term health complications. Additionally, new connections between compartments introduce new dynamics to the system and provide a framework to study the sensitivity of model outputs to several concurrent effects, including temporary immunity, vaccination rate and vaccine effectiveness. Subject to data availability for a given region, we discuss a means by which population demographics (age, comorbidity, socioeconomic status, sex and geographical location) and clinically relevant information (different variants, different vaccines) can be incorporated within the 22-compartment framework. Considering a probabilistic interpretation of the parameters allows the model's predictions to reflect the current state of uncertainty about the model parameters and model states. We propose the use of a sparse Bayesian learning algorithm for parameter calibration and model selection. This methodology considers a combination of prescribed parameter prior distributions for parameters that are known to be essential to the modelled dynamics and automatic relevance determination priors for parameters whose relevance is questionable. This is useful as it helps prevent overfitting the available epidemiological data when calibrating the parameters of the proposed model. Population-level administrative health data will serve as partial observations of the model states.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗