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At least 235 records · Page 13
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NASA NTRS2016

Solar Cycle Response and Long-Term Trends in the Mesospheric Metal Layers

The meteoric metal layers (Na, Fe, and K) which form as a result of the ablation of incoming meteors act as unique tracers for chemical and dynamical processes that occur within the upper mesosphere lower thermosphere region. In this work, we examine whether these metal layers are sensitive Fe indicators of decadal long-term changes within the upper atmosphere. Output from a whole-atmosphere climate model is used to assess the response of the Na, K, and Fe layers across a 50 year period (1955-2005). At short timescales, the K layer has previously been shown to exhibit a very different seasonal behavior compared to the other metals. Here we show that this unusual behavior is also exhibited at longer time scales (both the 11 year solar cycle and 50 year periods), where K displays a much more pronounced response to atmospheric temperature changes than either Na or Fe. The contrasting solar cycle behavior of the K and Na layers predicted by the model is confirmed using satellite and lidar observations for the period 2004-2013.

Dawkins, E. C. M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A seven-month solar cycle observed with the Langmuir probe on Pioneer Venus Orbiter

Data collected by the Langmuir probe aboard the Pioneer Venus orbiter (PVO) over the years 1979 though 1987 were normalized to remove the long-period 11-year solar maximum to minimum trend and were analyzed for periodicity. Results yield evidence for the existence of an approximately 7-month solar cycle, which was also observed from SME Lyman alpha and 2800-MHz radio flux measurements carried out from an earth-based platform. This coincidence suggests that the cycle is an intrinsic periodicity in the solar output. The cycle has a frequency independent of the orbital frequency of the PVO and is distinct from a 'rotating beacon' cycle whose period depends on the orbital motion of the PVO about the sun. The second most dominant cycle discovered was a 5-month period. Results of an oscillation model of solar periodicity indicate that the 7-month and 5-month cycles are caused by long-lived flux enhancements from nonlinear interactions of global oscillation modes in the sun's convective envelope (r modes) and radiative interior (g modes).

Hoegy, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A new solar cycle model including meridional circulation

A kinematic model is presented for the solar cycle which includes not only the transport of magnetic flux by supergranular diffusion and a poleward bulk flow at the sun's surface, but also the effects of turbulent diffusion and an equatorward 'return flow' beneath the surface. As in the earlier models of Babcock and Leighton, the rotational shearing of a subsurface poloidal field generates toroidal flux that erupts at the surface in the form of bipolar magnetic regions. However, such eruptions do not result in any net loss of toroidal flux from the sun (as assumed by Babcock and Leighton); instead, the large-scale toroidal field is destroyed both by 'unwinding' as the local poloidal field reverses its polarity, and by diffusion as the toroidal flux is transported equatorward by the subsurface flow and merged with its opposite hemisphere counterpart. The inclusion of meridional circulation allows stable oscillations of the magnetic field, accompanied by the equatorward progression of flux eruptions, to be achieved even in the absence of a radial gradient in the angular velocity. An illustrative case in which a subsurface flow speed of order 1 m/s and subsurface diffusion rate of order 10 sq km/s yield 22-yr oscillations in qualitative agreement with observations.

Wang, Y.-M.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Forecast of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 Based on the Disturbed Days Precursor

R. J. Thompson (1993, Solar Physics 148, 383) exhibited a significant linear relationship between the number of geomagnetically disturbed days (those that exceed some threshold value of the Ap or nu index) in a solar cycle and the sum of the peak sunspot number in that cycle and the next cycle. Thus, the number of disturbed days during a full cycle, together with the peak sunspot number in that cycle, is a predictor of the amplitude of the next cycle. The work reported here applies Thompson's method to the current cycle. Linear relationships as described above are derived both for the pure aa record (1868-2006) and for a composite of aa (1868-1931) and Ap (1932-2006). For the composite record, the relationship between aa and Ap is determined cycle-by-cycle during the period of overlap. The method is tested for sensitivity to the adopted Ap (or equivalent aa) threshold. The highest smoothed monthly sunspot number for Cycle 24 is forecasted to be R(sub z) = 115 plus or minus 30, where the uncertainty is conservatively based on the full spread of the data around the fitted line in the sunspot number direction. In terms of smoothed monthly 10.7-cm radio flux, the forecast is F10.7 = 164 plus or minus 28.

Rabin, Douglas M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Dual-peak solar cycle distribution of intense geomagnetic storms

This paper studies the features of the solar cycle distribution of intense storms (Dst) during cycles 20 and 21 (1965-1985). For these cycles, the distribution of intense storms (including moderate events for this time interval) in terms of Dst values below -50 nT, showed a dual-peak distribution, providing evidence for another enhancement of the intense storm distribution at the late ascending phase of the cycle. The origin of the dual-peak distribution of intense storms is associated with a similar dual-peak distribution obtained for large-amplitude and long-duration values of the negative Bz component of the IMF, computed for the interval 1970-1981.

Gonzalez, W. D.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Is There a CME Rate Floor? CME and Magnetic Flux Values for the Last Four Solar Cycle Minima

The recent prolonged activity minimum has led to the question of whether there is a base level of the solar magnetic field evolution that yields a ''floor'' in activity levels and also in the solar wind magnetic field strength. Recently, a flux transport model coupled with magneto-frictional simulations has been used to simulate the continuous magnetic field evolution in the global solar corona for over 15 years, from 1996 to 2012. Flux rope eruptions in the simulations are estimated (Yeates), and the results are in remarkable agreement with the shape of the SOlar Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment coronal mass ejection (CME) rate distribution. The eruption rates at the two recent minima approximate the observed-corrected CME rates, supporting the idea of a base level of solar magnetic activity. In this paper, we address this issue by comparing annual averages of the CME occurrence rates during the last four solar cycle minima with several tracers of the global solar magnetic field. We conclude that CME activity never ceases during a cycle, but maintains a base level of 1 CME every 1.5 to approx. 3 days during minima. We discuss the sources of these CMEs.

Webb, D. F.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Neutral solar wind evolution during solar cycle

The time dependent model of the expected fluxes of the neutral H and He components of the solar wind in the inner heliosphere is discussed. The model takes into account typical temporal evolution of the distribution of neutral interstellar gases (hydrogen and helium) in the interplanetary space due to solar cycle effects and the long term variability of the solar wind. The contribution of different charge exchange processes to the production of particular NSW element is presented. The distribution of the NSW flux is analysed with respect to the heliocentric distance and azimuthal angle from the Interstellar Wind apex. It demonstrates significant, time-dependent upwind/downwind H and He flux asymmentries. It is shown that the most pronounced modulation of the NSW flux is expected around the solar maximum epoch, when a strong decrease of the energetic H flux by two three orders of magnitude at 1 AU is predicted. The computations show that in the inner solar system (approx. 1 AU) energetic helium atoms production in the downwind region usually dominates the production of the hydrogen component This leads to the conclusion that the NSW composition at the Earth orbit strongly depends on time and the position of the observation point in reference to the apex direction.

Bzowski, M.↗
NASA NTRS1995

The Heliosphere During the Declining Solar Cycle; Symposium D1.1 of COSPAR Scientific Assembly, 30th, Hamburg, Germany, July 11-21, 1994

The conference discussed the heliosphere during the declining solar cycle. Topics covered included: manifestations of solar activity, the solar wind, ion pick-up and anomalous cosmic rays, the interplanetary magnetic field, cosmic ray modulation, co-rotating interaction regions, and the heliosphere boundary, as well as several related topics.

Shea, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Anomalous Expansion of Coronal Mass Ejections During Solar Cycle 24 and Its Space Weather Implications

The familiar correlation between the speed and angular width of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is also found in solar cycle 24, but the regression line has a larger slope: for a given CME speed, cycle 24 CMEs are significantly wider than those in cycle 23. The slope change indicates a significant change in the physical state of the heliosphere, due to the weak solar activity. The total pressure in the heliosphere (magnetic + plasma) is reduced by approximately 40%, which leads to the anomalous expansion of CMEs explaining the increased slope. The excess CME expansion contributes to the diminished effectiveness of CMEs in producing magnetic storms during cycle 24, both because the magnetic content of the CMEs is diluted and also because of the weaker ambient fields. The reduced magnetic field in the heliosphere may contribute to the lack of solar energetic particles accelerated to very high energies during this cycle.

coronal mass ejections↗
NASA NTRS2016

Two Exceptions in the Large SEP Events of Solar Cycles 23 and 24

We discuss our findings from a survey of all large solar energetic particle (SEP) events of Solar Cycles 23 and 24, i.e. the SEP events where the intensity of greater than 10 megaelectronvolts protons observed by GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) was greater than 10 proton flux units. In our previous work (Gopalswamy et al. in Geophys.Res.Lett. 41, 2673, 2014) we suggested that ground level enhancements (GLEs) in Cycles 23 and 24 also produce an intensity increase in the GOES greater than 700 megaelectronvolts proton channel. Our survey, now extended to include all large SEP events of Cycle 23, confirms this to be true for all but two events: i) the GLE of 6 May 1998 (GLE57) for which GOES did not observe enhancement in greater than 700 megaelectronvolts protons intensities and ii) a high-energy SEP event of 8 November 2000, for which GOES observed greater than 700 megaelectronvolts protons but no GLE was recorded. Here we discuss these two exceptions. We compare GLE57 with other small GLEs, and the 8 November 2000 SEP event with those that showed similar intensity increases in the GOES greater than 700 megaelectronvolts protons but produced GLEs. We find that, because GOES greater than 700 megaelectronvolts proton intensity enhancements are typically small for small GLEs, they are difficult to discern near solar minima due to higher background. Our results also support that GLEs are generally observed when shocks of the associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) form at heights 1.2-1.93 solar radii [R (sub solar)] and when the solar particle release occurs between 2-6 solar radii [R (sub solar)]. Our secondary findings support the view that the nose region of the CME-shock may be accelerating the first-arriving GLE particles and the observation of a GLE is also dependent on the latitudinal connectivity of the observer to the CME-shock nose. We conclude that the GOES greater than 700 megaelectronvolts proton channel can be used as an indicator of GLEs excluding some rare exceptions, such as those discussed here.

Thakur, N.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Long-term modulation of cosmic rays during solar cycle 21

A preliminary result concerning the rigidity dependence of the longer-term solar cycle modulation is reported. The long-term modulation, using monthly mean intensities and referred to November 1977 as a normalizing level, appear to be in accordance with the exponent gamma = 1, provided only Brisbane and Hobart data are used. Darwin data do not conform to this pattern except perhaps during the early years of the cycle until about the end of 1980, since when the Darwin long-term intensity has been largely steady, apart from Forbush-type decreases and the as yet unidentified vector from the observed SI vector. The true SI vector of galactic origin can be obtained. The resultant vector has the amplitude of 0.031% and the phase of 2.3h. The present result seems to be consistent with those so far reported.

Fenton, A. G.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Solar Cycle Variation of CMEs and CIRs

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and high-speed solar wind streams (HSS) are two solar phenomena that produce large-scale structures in the interplanetary (IP) medium. CMEs evolve into interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) and the HSS result in corotating interaction regions (CIRs) when they interact with preceding slow solar wind. CMEs and CIRs originate from closed (active region and filament region) and open (corona) hole) magnetic field regions on the Sun, respectively. These two types of mass emissions from the Sun are responsible for the largest effects on the heliosphere, particularly on Earth's space environment. This paper discussed how these structures and their solar sources vary with the solar cycle and the consequent changes in the geospace impact.

Gopalswamy, N.↗
NASA NTRS1986

The heliospheric current sheet - 3-dimensional structure and solar cycle changes

The reversal in polarity of the interplanetary current sheet/sector structure is investigated during the recent solar maximum. Multipoint observations by ISEE-3 and Pioneer 11 show that a simple two sector or occasional four sector structure persisted throughout the maximum and out to distances of 10 AU. The polarity reversal occurred between March 1979 and October 1980, without any indication of an abrupt transition that might permit a more precise timing. The reversal coincided approximately with the reversal in the sun's polar cap fields. The current sheet appeared to be highly inclined during the ascending and descending phases of the solar cycle but was apparently too complex to describe as a simple inclined current sheet during solar maximum.

Smith, E. J.↗
NASA NTRS1996

The Three-Dimensional Nature of Interaction Regions: Pioneer, Voyager, and Ulysses fro 1 to 5 AU: Solar Cycle Variations

We investigated diverse aspects of the interaction regions detected by four spacecraft that travelled from Earth to Jupiter at different phases of the solar cycle: Pioneer 11 (declining phase of cycle 20); voyagers 1 and 2 (ascending phase of cycle 21); and Ulysses (just after solar maximum 22). From the analysis of 38 stream interfaces we found that the interaction regions detected by the three missions have different geometries.

stream interfaces solar winds solar wind streams↗