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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Determining the leading-order contact term in neutrinoless double β decay

We present a method to determine the leading-order (LO) contact term contributing to the nn → ppe - e - amplitude through the exchange of light Majorana neutrinos. Our approach is based on the representation of the amplitude as the momentum integral of a known kernel (proportional to the neutrino propagator) times the generalized forward Compton scattering amplitude n ( p 1 ) n ( p 2 ) W + ( k ) → \( p\left({p}_1^{\prime}\right)p\left({p}_2^{\prime}\right){W}^{-}(k) \) , in analogy to the Cottingham formula for the electromagnetic contribution to hadron masses. We construct model-independent representations of the integrand in the low- and high-momentum regions, through chiral EFT and the operator product expansion, respectively. We then construct a model for the full amplitude by interpolating between these two regions, using appropriate nucleon factors for the weak currents and information on nucleon-nucleon ( NN ) scattering in the 1 S 0 channel away from threshold. By matching the amplitude obtained in this way to the LO chiral EFT amplitude we obtain the relevant LO contact term and discuss various sources of uncertainty. We validate the approach by computing the analog I = 2 NN contact term and by reproducing, within uncertainties, the charge-independence-breaking contribution to the 1 S 0 NN scattering lengths. While our analysis is performed in the \( \overline{\mathrm{MS}} \) scheme, we express our final result in terms of the scheme-independent renormalized amplitude \( {\mathcal{A}}_{\nu}\left(\left|\mathbf{p}\right|,\left|\mathbf{p}^{\prime}\right|\right) \) at a set of kinematic points near threshold. We illustrate for two cutoff schemes how, using our synthetic data for \( {\mathcal{A}}_{\nu } \) , one can determine the contact-term contribution in any regularization scheme, in particular the ones employed in nuclear-structure calculations for isotopes of experimental interest.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Versailles Project on Advanced Materials and Standards interlaboratory study on intensity calibration for x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy instruments using low-density polyethylene

We report the results of a Versailles Project on Advanced Materials and Standards interlaboratory study on the intensity scale calibration of x-ray photoelectron spectrometers using low-density polyethylene (LDPE) as an alternative material to gold, silver, and copper. An improved set of LDPE reference spectra, corrected for different instrument geometries using a quartz-monochromated Al Kα x-ray source, was developed using data provided by participants in this study. Using these new reference spectra, a transmission function was calculated for each dataset that participants provided. When compared to a similar calibration procedure using the NPL reference spectra for gold, the LDPE intensity calibration method achieves an absolute offset of ~3.0% and a systematic deviation of ±6.5% on average across all participants. For spectra recorded at high pass energies (≥90 eV), values of absolute offset and systematic deviation are ~5.8% and ±5.7%, respectively, whereas for spectra collected at lower pass energies (<90 eV), values of absolute offset and systematic deviation are ~4.9% and ±8.8%, respectively; low pass energy spectra perform worse than the global average, in terms of systematic deviations, due to diminished count rates and signal-to-noise ratio. Differences in absolute offset are attributed to the surface roughness of the LDPE induced by sample preparation. We further assess the usability of LDPE as a secondary reference material and comment on its performance in the presence of issues such as variable dark noise, x-ray warm up times, inaccuracy at low count rates, and underlying spectrometer problems. In response to participant feedback and the results of the study, we provide an updated LDPE intensity calibration protocol to address the issues highlighted in the interlaboratory study. Finally, we also comment on the lack of implementation of a consistent and traceable intensity calibration method across the community of x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) users and, therefore, propose a route to achieving this with the assistance of instrument manufacturers, metrology laboratories, and experts leading to an international standard for XPS intensity scale calibration.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Influence of sampling frequency and estimation method on phosphorus load uncertainty in the Western Lake Erie Basin, Ohio, USA

Accurate estimates of nutrient loads are necessary to identify critical source areas and quantify the impact of management practices on pollutant export. Previous studies have investigated nutrient load estimate uncertainty, but they often focus on nutrient loads estimated using an interpolation method for large-scale watersheds with short-term datasets. The study objective was to quantify uncertainty in soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), total phosphorus (TP), and suspended solids (SS) load estimates from two small (<10 3 km 2 ) agricultural watersheds in the western Lake Erie Basin resulting from different sampling frequencies. Each watershed had high temporal resolution datasets of discharge (15 min) and nutrient concentration (1 to 3 samples per day) collected over a 30-year period (1990–2020). Firstly, SRP, TP, and SS loads were calculated using the high temporal resolution datasets, which was assumed as “true loads”. Secondly, the high temporal concentration data were decomposed to semiweekly, weekly, biweekly, and monthly sampling and annual loads were estimated using four common load estimation methods to assess the effect of sampling frequency and load estimation method on load estimate error. Across the four different methods, the composite method had the lowest relative root mean square and absolute bias, but the rectangular interpolation method was the most precise. Furthermore, even with semiweekly sampling, the composite method resulted in an unacceptable level of precision (average imprecision = 39 %), while the interpolation method resulted in an unacceptable bias (average absolute bias = 16 %). Because neither method could provide acceptable accuracy and precision at the lowest decrease in sampling (e.t. semiweekly sampling), continued daily sampling is recommended in these watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The root-zone soil moisture spectrum in a mediterranean ecosystem

Storage of water within soil pores of the root zone introduce memory effects in the dynamics of soil moisture that are considerably longer than the integral timescale of many atmospheric processes. Thus, hydro-climatic states can be “sustained” through land-surface heat and water vapor fluxes primarily because they can “feed off” on this long-term soil moisture memory. Root-zone soil moisture memory is only but one feature characterizing the spectrum of soil moisture dynamics, which is analyzed here using a combination of long-term measurements and models. In particular, the spectrum of root-zone soil moisture content in a Mediterranean ecosystem is examined using 14-years of half-hourly measurements. A distinguishing hydro-climatic feature in such ecosystems is that sources (mainly rainfall) and sinks (mainly evapotranspiration) of soil moisture are roughly out of phase with each other. For over 4 decades of time scales and 7 decades of energy, the canonical shape of the measured soil moisture spectrum is shown to be approximately Lorentzian determined by the soil moisture variance and its memory but with two exceptions: the occurrences of a peak at diurnal-to-daily time scales and a weaker peak at near annual time scales. Model calculations and spectral analysis demonstrate that diurnal and seasonal variations in hydroclimate forcing responsible for variability in evapotranspiration had minor impact on the normalized shape of the soil moisture spectrum. However, their impact was captured by adjustments in the temporal variance. These findings indicate that precipitation and not evapotranspiration variability dominates the multi-scaling properties of soil moisture variability consistent with prior climate model simulations. Furthermore, the soil moisture memory inferred by the annual peak of soil moisture (340 d) is consistent with climate model simulations, while the memory evaluated from the loss function of a linearized mass balance approach leads to a smaller value (50 d), highlighting the effect of weak non-stationarity on soil moisture variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decision support for United States—Canada energy integration is impaired by fragmentary environmental and electricity system modeling capacity

The renewable energy transition is leading to increased electricity trade between the United States and Canada, with Canadian hydropower providing firm lower-carbon power and buffering variability of wind and solar generation in the U.S. However, long-term power purchase agreements and transborder transmission projects are controversial, with two of four proposed transmission lines between Quebec, Canada and the northeast U.S. cancelled since 2018. Here, we argue that controversies are exacerbated by a lack of open-source data and tools to understand tradeoffs of new hydropower generation and transmission infrastructure in comparison to alternatives. This gap includes impacts that incremental transmission and generation projects have on the economics of the entire system, for example, how new transmission projects affect exports to existing markets or incentivize new generation. We identify priority areas for data synthesis and model development, such as integrating linked hydropower and hydrologic interactions in energy system models and openly releasing (by utilities) or back-calculating (by researchers) hydropower generation and operational parameters. Publicly available environmental (e.g. streamflow, precipitation) and techno-economic (e.g. costs, reservoir size,) data can be used to parameterize freely usable and extensible models. Existing models have been calibrated with operational data from Canadian utilities that are not publicly available, limiting the range of scientific and commercial questions these tools have been used to answer and the range of parties that have been involved. Studies conducted using highly resolved, national-scale public data exist in other countries, notably, the United States, and demonstrate how greater transparency and extensibility can drive industry action. Improved data availability in Canada could facilitate approaches that (1) increase participation in decarbonization planning by a broader range of actors; (2) allow independent characterizations of environmental, health, and economic outcomes of interest to the public; and (3) identify decarbonization pathways consistent with community values.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Iodine Effects on Medical Isotope Producer Delay & Guard Bed Temperature and Performance in Support of NA-23 Program

In support of NA-23’s objective to accelerate the establishment of a reliable commercial United States (U.S.) domestic supply of 99Mo produced without the use of highly enriched uranium (HEU), the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) was tasked with modeling the performance of activated carbon delay and guard beds that may be typical for non-HEU 99Mo production processes. The specific tasks accomplished by PNNL included calculations of long-term effects of iodine on delay bed performance and development of a finite element simulation to better understand delay bed performance under various scenarios specifically with radioxenon and radioiodine decay heating of the delay beds. The main issue of interest in this study is understanding the effect of iodine on the abatement performance of the beds if iodine is not sufficiently removed from gases prior to reaching the delay beds. Finite element simulations of delay bed performance were developed using COMSOL Multiphysics® Software. These simulations are based on partial differential equations that describe xenon and iodine adsorption, heat transfer and decay of radioxenon and radioiodine isotopes. Heat transfer in the activated carbon beds is simulated with a heat source tied to the decay of radioactive xenon and iodine species. These simulations were used to investigate delay bed temperature and hold up time using radioxenon and radioiodine activities and flowrates expected from a non-HEU production process. A bounding case scenario was simulated, where all the iodine was released into the delay beds due to insufficient guarding of the delay beds. In addition, preliminary investigations of the guard beds were conducted.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deciphering Degradation: Machine Learning on Real-World Performance Data

The solar investment community is in need of up-to-date and data-derived system degradation rates to use in financial models that calculate the risk and expectation of energy revenue. To date, financial models choose degradation rates from past studies that are limited and may not be representative of solar projects in development today. As the solar industry expands in all sectors (residential, commercial, and utility), there is a growing amount of energy generation data available to analyze. With the help of the open source degradation analysis code (RdTools) it is now possible to derive degradation on an ongoing basis and continuously provide up-to-date durability statistics to the investment community. Ongoing and accurate statistics of fielded photovoltaic systems allows financial stakeholders to constrain energy revenue projections, lower financial risk, and increase the bankability of solar. This presentation will provide a mid-term progress update on a 2 year SETO-funded degradation project that involves applying RdTools analysis on kWh Analytics’ industry database. With results from the RdTools analysis in hand, machine learning methods are employed to quantify how much variance of system performance degradation can be explained by predictor variables such as environmental factors, equipment bill of materials characteristics, and system design information. The goal of this presentation is to promote the usage of RdTools on an ongoing to data owners and to solicit feedback from researchers and stakeholders on how to maximize impact of the SETO-funded kWh Analytics degradation project.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Calculating n-point charge correlations in evolving systems

Background: In dynamic systems such as heavy-ion collisions, charge susceptibilities and local charge correlations change with time. These changes are accompanied by nonlocal correlations, which spread diffusively with time and are constrained by local charge conservation. Such correlations have been measured at the Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider (RHIC) and have been linked to the chemical evolution of the matter and possible phase separation or critical phenomena. The evolution of such correlations has been modeled for two-point correlators superimposed onto hydrodynamics, but not for three- or four-point correlators. These higher-order correlators represent an essential basis for calculating the kurtosis and skewness of charge distributions measured at RHIC. For short-range correlations, such as those between charges on the same particle, and the associated charge-balance correlations a theoretical formalism was lacking for handling higher-order correlations. In particular, one needed to understand how higher-order charge fluctuations was split onto lower numbers of particles. For example, correlations of order three have contributions with charge all on one particle, split onto two particle, or split onto three. By assuming local chemical equilibrium of short-range correlations, the sources of the various correlators were found to be uniquely determined. The relevant theoretical foundation is presented here, including a diagrammatic technique to correctly account for all the possible terms to higher-order correlations. Here, we found a consistent theoretical treatment and its applicability, viability, and tractability are discussed. The formalism derived here enables realistic and quantitative modeling of the three- and four-point charge correlations necessary for understanding measurements of the kurtosis and skewness of charge distributions at RHIC. These observables have been promoted as signals of phase transitions or measures of chemical evolution.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interseismic Strain Accumulation between the Colorado Plateau and the Eastern California Shear Zone: Implications for the Seismic Hazard near Las Vegas, Nevada

ABSTRACT Crustal deformation in the central Basin and Range between the Colorado plateau and the Eastern California Shear Zone is active but slow, making it a challenge to assess how strain is distributed and crustal motion transferred. However, knowledge of strain rates is very important, particularly for addressing the seismic hazard for both the Las Vegas urban area and the site of the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository, in southern Nevada. Global Positioning System (GPS) data provide important constraints, particularly now that the GPS network in the area has substantially expanded in recent years. However, because deformation is slow, it is important to mitigate any transient tectonic and nontectonic signals to obtain the most accurate long-term interseismic motion and robust estimation of strain rates. We use data from all GPS stations in the region including both long-running continuous and semicontinuous stations. We model and remove postseismic displacements at these stations using source parameters for 41 events, dating back to the 1700 Cascadia megathrust earthquake, which contribute significantly to the deformation field within the central Basin and Range. We also remove correlated noise from the time series with the common-mode component imaging technique. We find that removal of both the postseismic transients and common-mode noise substantially reduces the uncertainties and spatial variation in the velocities. We find east–west extension across the Las Vegas Valley of 0.5–0.6 mm/yr. The interseismic strain rate field, calculated with the final velocities, reveals higher strain rates through southern Nevada than in previous studies, with rates within Las Vegas Valley of 8.5±2.4×10−9 yr−1. Our results also confirm shear along the Pahranagat shear zone, but the estimated amplitude is strongly affected by postseismic relaxation.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Preliminary Criticality and Radiation Shielding Analysis for the Storage and Transfer of MARVEL Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel

This report documents the results of preliminary nuclear criticality and radiation shielding assessments during transfer and dry storage of irradiated Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) reactor fuel at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The assessments focus on transfer casks and storage canisters that are currently in use at INL, which may be compatible with the irradiated MARVEL reactor fuel. The criticality assessments were performed using the radiation transport code MCNP6 with 37 MARVEL reactor fuel elements in various configurations and scenarios. All transfer and storage configurations under dry conditions were below the assumed criticality safety limit of 0.93. Some storage and transfer configurations under wet conditions exceeded the criticality safety limit. This suggests that the appropriate administrative and engineering controls, in addition to reducing the number of MARVEL reactor fuel elements per transfer cask or storage canister, can be expected to ensure criticality safety under all scenarios. The radiation shielding assessments were performed by generating conservative neutron and photon source terms using the ORIGEN module in the SCALE suite of codes. These source spectra were used to estimate the dose equivalent rates using the radiation transport code MCNP6, both on contact and 1 m away from the fuel and transfer casks. The maximum estimated dose equivalent rate of 37 unshielded MARVEL reactor fuel elements on contact is approximately 42000 R/hr. The maximum estimated dose equivalent rates on contact to the ATR transfer cask, HFEF-5 transfer cask, and high load charger were approximately 233 mR/hr, 171 mR/hr, and 201 mR/hr, respectively. This suggests that with the appropriate administrative and engineering controls, all three transfer casks analyzed can be expected to provide sufficient radiation shielding to workers during transfer of irradiated MARVEL reactor fuel. These calculations are performed to support the planning and strategy for the MARVEL project and will demonstrate the technical viability of the different configurations discussed and help identify where engineered or administrative controls may be necessary. A complete criticality safety analysis and radiation shielding analysis, including validation and contingency and accident analysis must be completed by licensed and authorized personnel before any transfer or storage of MARVEL reactor nuclear fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2023

Underlying each of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process relying on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to estimate a business’ cost of equity, and by adding a risk adjustment factor to the risk-free rate associated with long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to estimate their cost of debt. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level and sector-level financial data (e.g., Fujita, 2021, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include the following: • Discount rate estimation methods and rationale • Data sources used and data limitations • Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis • Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Best Practices for Shielding Analyses of Activated Metals and Spent Resins from Reactor Operation

This report investigated best practices for performing shielding evaluations of Type B waste packages, as defined in 10 CFR Part 71 regulations on packaging and transportation of radioactive material, or packages for which the contents are not defined before loading and may include a broad range of nuclides, geometries, and non-fuel materials. The following non-fuel waste streams were analyzed: Activated metals from decommissioned commercial power reactors, including Type 304 stainless steel, reactor vessel steel, and Inconel, Control blades from boiling water reactors, Neutron-activated corrosion products on surfaces of activated metals, and Spent resins from power plant operations. Measured elemental compositions, including major constituents and impurities, for steel and Inconel samples from commercial power reactors were used in activation calculations to determine radionuclide inventories in activated metals. For a simplified cask model, 60 Co contribution to the total external package dose rate at 30 days after shutdown varied from approximately 60% to 95%, depending on the activated metal, initial cobalt impurity concentration in the metal, and the thickness of the overpack gamma shield. Its maximum contribution to the total external package dose rate of approximately 100% was reached within the time interval of 2 to 5 years after shutdown and was maintained for up to 45 to 60 years after shutdown, depending on material, initial cobalt impurity concentration, and shield thickness. Thereafter, the 60 Co contribution to external package dose rate decreased with increasing decay time. Cobalt-60 is primarily produced by neutron reactions with the cobalt impurity in steel and Inconel. Other important radionuclides in activated metals contributing to package external dose rate are radionuclides with relatively short decay times, including 51 Cr, 59 Fe, 58 Co, and 54 Mn. These radionuclides may be represented as an equivalent 60 Co activity/source because 60 Co gamma ray emissions are bounding in terms of source strength and energy to other important radionuclides identified in the analyzed activated metals. Approaches for modeling the neutron-activated corrosion products that may be attached to activated reactor components were analyzed in this report. It was demonstrated that a surface source is more conservative than a uniform volumetric source for the treatment of neutron-activated corrosion products with respect to external package dose rates. An analysis of the maximum radionuclide loadings reported on spent resins identified the radionuclides 137 Cs, 60 Co, 134 Cs, 65 Zn, and 58 Co as the primary contributors to external package dose rate. For a resin cooled for 3.08 years, the external package dose rate was entirely produced by the reported 137 Cs and 60 Co inventory. The neutron sources from actinides found on spent resins or activated metals produced negligible dose rates and may be ignored in dose rate analyses. Effects of idealized waste material, source geometry, and spatial material/source distributions on external package dose rates were determined based on dose rate results for a simplified cask model under normal conditions of transport. Type 304 stainless steel, zirconium, and aluminum with adjusted mass densities based on a maximum content weight were analyzed for material modeling effects on external package dose rate. These materials produced identical external package dose rates within the statistical uncertainties of the dose rate estimates. Among four different source geometry configurations with homogeneous material of different mass densities, uniform volumetric source distribution, and the same source strength, the geometry configuration with lowest mass density (i.e., minimum self-shielding effect among the four cases) was most conservative. Spatial source distributions that better represent localized peak 60 Co activity values were more conservative than a uniform volumetric source distribution, assuming the same weight and total source strength per package. The increase in external dose rate caused by localized source peaks can be as much as the ratio between source peak activity density to average activity density, depending on the location of the activated metal with peak activity density. Therefore, the shielding analysis may be simplified if localized peak activities and the average activity per package can be measured/determined and documented at the time of cask loading. For simplicity, external package dose rates may be determined based on average source activity and a uniform volumetric source distribution. The dose rate results from that calculation model multiplied by the ratio of peak activity density to average activity density will produce maximum dose rate values for conservative estimates.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Industry Facing PV Degradation Prediction Tool and Database to Enable a 50-Year Life Module

The Photovoltaic (PV) industry constantly aims for lower costs, higher-efficiency cells, and improved module designs. These trends lead to using new materials, designs, and manufacturing processes, resulting in a continually changing technological landscape. These changes can potentially introduce new, unknown degradation mechanisms and failure modes that are difficult to diagnose, analyze, test, and model. This introduces uncertainty into the expected lifetime of PV modules of 25 years. Furthermore, research efforts aim for up to 50 years of service life while keeping performance degradation at a minimum for decades of outdoor weathering - putting additional pressure on improving the accuracy of long-term durability and reliability assessments. Here there is a need to organize the existing degradation data into an accessible format and to provide industry relevant tools for extrapolation from laboratory to field conditions. Because the core of this type of analysis involves calculations that are complicated but ubiquitous for many degradation processes, an enhanced predictive modeling framework will facilitate the analysis to help researchers keep up with the rapid pace of technological changes. In this work, we present an online tool that can be used to search for and analyze degradation information and extrapolate PV module performance and durability to field exposure. A graphical user interface will aid in the understanding of the results. The prediction tool will be built modular and published as open source, enabling users to expand on the existing framework. We use an integration pipeline approach that allows us to leverage weather data from the National Solar Radiation Database to perform geospatial degradation analysis in the US and worldwide. Our repository will contain various degradation models and material parameters suitable for the reliability and durability assessment of materials and components deployed outdoors. We hope to become a repository that can be used for weathering and degradation analysis for various applications beyond the PV industry.

degradation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Novel estimation of aerosol processes with particle size distribution measurements: a case study with the TOMAS algorithm v1.0.0

Atmospheric aerosol microphysical processes are a significant source of uncertainty in predicting climate change. Specifically, aerosol nucleation, emissions, and growth rates, which are simulated in chemical transport models to predict the particle size distribution, are not understood well. However, long-term size distribution measurements made at several ground-based sites across Europe implicitly contain information about the processes that created those size distributions. This work aims to extract that information by developing and applying an inverse technique to constrain aerosol emissions as well as nucleation and growth rates based on hourly size distribution measurements. We developed an inverse method based upon process control theory into an online estimation technique to scale aerosol nucleation, emissions, and growth so that the model–measurement bias in three measured aerosol properties exponentially decays. The properties, which are calculated from the measured and predicted size distributions, used to constrain aerosol nucleation, emission, and growth rates are the number of particles with a diameter between 3 and 6 nm, the number with a diameter greater than 10 nm, and the total dry volume of aerosol ( N 3–6 , N 10 , V dry ), respectively. In this paper, we focus on developing and applying the estimation methodology in a zero-dimensional “box” model as a proof of concept before applying it to a three-dimensional simulation in subsequent work. The methodology is first tested on a dataset of synthetic and perfect measurements that span diverse environments in which the true particle emissions, growth, and nucleation rates are known. The inverse technique accurately estimates the aerosol microphysical process rates with an average and maximum error of 2 % and 13 %, respectively. Next, we investigate the effect that measurement noise has on the estimated rates. The method is robust to typical instrument noise in the aerosol properties as there is a negligible increase in the bias of the estimated process rates. Finally, the methodology is applied to long-term datasets of in situ size distribution measurements in western Europe from May 2006 through June 2007. At Melpitz, Germany, and Hyytiälä, Finland, the average diurnal profiles of estimated 3 nm particle formation rates are reasonable, having peaks near noon local time with average peak values of 1 and 0.15 cm –3 s –1 , respectively. The normalized absolute error in estimated N 3–6 , N 10 , and V dry at three European measurement sites is less than 15 %, showing that the estimation framework developed here has potential to decrease model–measurement bias while constraining uncertain aerosol microphysical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

PVDeg: Development of a Streamlined Tool for PV Degradation Modeling

The photovoltaic (PV) industry constantly aims for lower costs, higher-efficiency cells, and improved module designs. These trends lead to using new materials, designs, and manufacturing processes, resulting in a continually changing technological landscape. These changes can potentially introduce new, unknown degradation mechanisms and failure modes that are difficult to diagnose, analyze, test, and model. This introduces uncertainty into the expected lifetime of PV modules of 25 to 50 years. research efforts aim to achieve this while keeping performance degradation at a minimum for decades. This puts considerable pressure on improving the accuracy of long-term durability and reliability assessments. There is a need to organize the existing degradation data into an accessible format and to provide industry relevant tools for extrapolation from laboratory to field conditions. Because the core of this type of analysis involves calculations that are complicated but ubiquitous for many degradation processes, an enhanced predictive modeling framework will facilitate the analysis to help researchers keep up with the rapid pace of technological changes. In this work, we present an online tool that can be used to search for and analyze degradation information and extrapolate PV module performance and durability to field exposure. The tool will simplify many of the routine computational operations that are common to many degradation studies. The prediction tool will be built modular and published as open source, enabling users to expand on the existing framework. This repository will contain various degradation models and material parameters suitable for the reliability and durability assessment of materials and components deployed outdoors.

degradation↗
DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task F1 Final Report

DECOVALEX-2023 Task F is a comparison of models and methods for post-closure performance assessment (PA) of a deep geologic repository for radioactive waste. The general aims of Task F are to build confidence in the models, methods, and software used for PA and to stimulate additional research and development in PA methodologies. The task objectives are to motivate development of PA modelling skills and capabilities, to examine the influence of model choices on calculated repository performance, and to compare the uncertainties introduced by model choices to other sources of uncertainty. Task F involves no actual experiment or site. It is a PA modelling exercise that requires the conceptual development of hypothetical repository designs and geologic settings. Because three of the teams were interested in salt and the rest of the teams were interested in crystalline rock, Task F was split into two branches: Task F1 for crystalline rock and Task F2 for salt. This report is for Task F1, crystalline rock. Teams from seven countries (Canada, Czech Republic, Germany, Korea, Sweden, Taiwan, and United States) participated in Task F1. The teams worked together to define the features, events, and processes of the reference case repository and established a set of performance measures. In addition, they defined a set of benchmark problems designed to test and compare modelling capabilities for fracture flow and transport at different scales. The repository design and benchmark problems are documented in a Task Specification that evolved over time as the group honed the specifications. The benchmark problems verified that each team can aptly model flow and transport in fractured media in 1-, 2-, and 3-dimensions. Two general approaches were used for the 3-dimensional benchmarks: discrete fracture network (DFN) and equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM). DFN modelling involves explicit meshing of each fracture while ECPM modelling aims to capture the effective porosity and directional permeability of each cell in a space-filling mesh as affected by intersecting fractures. In some models, a combination of the two is used, i.e., DFN for large known fractures and ECPM for the rest of the domain. Transport is solved by using either the advection-dispersion equation or particle tracking. Although some variation is observed among model breakthrough curves in the benchmark problems, there is strong agreement in breakthrough behaviour up to at least the 75 th percentile for all benchmarks. At the 90 th percentile, breakthrough results show larger differences, suggesting several models retain substantially higher fractions of tracer in regions of slower moving water. In addition to the flow and transport benchmarks, several teams completed the source term benchmark, verifying capabilities for modelling radionuclide decay and ingrowth, waste package breach, instant release fractions, fuel matrix degradation rates, and radionuclide solubility limitations. The reference case is conceptualized as a generic spent fuel repository at a depth of 450 m in fractured crystalline rock. The repository has 50 parallel backfilled drifts, each with 50 deposition holes 6 m apart. Each deposition hole contains a 4-PWR waste package and bentonite buffer. The rock domain is 5 km in length, 2 km in width, and 1 km in depth. It has 6 deterministic fractured deformation zones and a multitude of stochastic fractures. Teams generally used the ECPM approach for the entire rock or a hybrid approach in which the deterministic fracture zones are modelled with a DFN and the rest of the rock is modelled by ECPM. Of the reference case problems specified, only the results of the initial reference case problem are compared in this report. The initial problem focuses on transport from the deposition holes to the surface, i.e., it neglects waste package performance. Tracers are released at all waste package locations at time zero and tracked for their releases to the near field and ground surface. The water fluxes calculated at the ground surface entry and exit regions of the domain are similar for all models except for two that have considerably lower fluxes. For tracer transport, large differences are observed among models in the magnitude of tracer transported. Much of the difference appears to be due to how the repository is implemented and hence the different degrees of repository simplification. Models that exclude the drifts, buffer, and backfill from the domain tend to show greater release of tracers and radionuclides from the repository. The initial study presented here indicates that major differences in modelling important processes within the repository (e.g., diffusion through buffer and backfill) can produce broadly different release and transport results, especially when those processes are excluded. Even for the models that included all specified features, events, and processes, the results show significant differences and demonstrate the importance of examining multiple modelling approaches in performance assessment. The differences in results observed in this study are expected to motivate teams to either increase complexity in future versions of the reference case models or to improve methods to account for the effects of simplified features and processes. Either way, future improvements in these models are expected to produce results that more closely agree.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

( 6 Li, d) and ( 6 Li, t) reactions on 22 Ne and implications for s-process nucleosynthesis

We studied α cluster states in 26 Mg via the 22 Ne( 6 Li,dγ) 26 Mg reaction in inverse kinematics at an energy of 7 MeV/nucleon. States between E x = 4–14 MeV in 26 Mg were populated and relative α spectroscopic factors were determined. Some of these states correspond to resonances in the Gamow window of the 22 Ne(α,n) 25 Mg reaction, which is one of the main neutron sources in the astrophysical s-process. Using our new 22 Ne(α,n) 25 Mg and 22Ne(α,γ) 26 Mg reaction rates, we performed new s-process calculations for massive stars and asymptotic giant branch stars and compared the resulting abundances with the abundances obtained using other 22 Ne+α rates from the literature. We observe an impact on the s-process abundances up to a factor of three for intermediate-mass AGB stars and up to a factor of ten for massive stars. Additionally, states in 25 Mg at E x < 7.5 MeV are identified via the 22 Ne( 6 Li,t) 25 Mg reaction for the first time. We present the ( 6 Li, t) spectroscopic factors of these states and note similarities to the (d,p) reaction in terms of reaction selectivity.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental Aging and Lifetime Prediction in Grid Applications for Large-Format Commercial Li-Ion Batteries

Due to the growth of electric vehicle and stationary energy storage markets, the production and use of lithium-ion batteries has grown exponentially in recent years. For many of these applications, large-format lithium-ion batteries are being utilized, as large cells have less inactive material relative to their energy capacity and require fewer electrical connections to assemble into packs. And especially for stationary energy storage systems, where energy delivered is the only revenue source, the economics of these battery systems is highly dependent on cell lifetime. However, testing of large-format lithium-ion batteries is time consuming and requires high current channels and large testing chambers, making information on the performance of commercial, large-format lithium-ion batteries hard to come by. Here, accelerated aging test data from four commercial large-format lithium-ion batteries is reported. These batteries span both NMC-Gr and LFP-Gr cell chemistries, pouch and prismatic formats, and a range of cell designs with varying power capabilities. Accelerated aging test results are analyzed to examine both cell performance, in terms of efficiency and thermal response under load, as well as cell lifetime. Cell thermal response is characterized by measuring temperature during cycle aging, which is used to calculated a normalized thermal resistance value that may help estimate both cell cooling needs or to help extrapolate aging test results to different thermal environments. Cell lifetime is evaluated qualitatively, considering simply the average calendar and cycle life across a range of conditions, as well as quantitatively, using statistical modeling and machine-learning methods to identify predictive aging models from the accelerated aging data. These predictive aging models are then used to investigate cell sensitivities to stressors, such as cycling temperature, voltage window, and C-rate, as well as to predict cell lifetime in various stationary storage applications. Results from this work show that cell lifetime and sensitivity to aging conditions varies substantially across commercial cells, necessitating testing for specific cell formats to make quantitative lifetime predictions. That being said, all commercial cells tested here are predicted to reach at least 10-year lifetimes for stationary storage applications. Based on the aging test results and modeling, some cells are expected to be relatively insensitive to temperature and use-case, making them suited for simple use cases with little or no thermal management and simple controls, while the lifetime of other cells could be extended to 20+ years if operated with thermal management and degradation-aware controls.

battery↗